Strategic foresight: Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Stuttgart
Schäffer-Poeschel
2009
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltstext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 255 S. graph. Darst. 240 mm x 170 mm |
| ISBN: | 9783791028682 |
Internformat
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| adam_text |
Titel: Strategic foresight
Autor: Marcus, Alfred
Jahr: 2009
Contents
List of Figures and Tables xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Introduction 1
Turbulent Times 2
What Is Foresight? 4
The Role of Scenarios—Generating and Testing Strategies 5
Thinking about What Comes Next 6
1 Meeting the Challenges of the Future 9
Weaknesses in Scenario Development 9
Involving Every Person 10
Imagining Sequences of Events 13
Hedging against Uncertainties 14
Gamble on the "Most Probable" Outcome 14
Take the "Robust" Route 16
Delay until Further Clarity Emerges 16
Commit with Fallbacks 18
Shape the Future 19
Risk and Uncertainty 21
Looking at Scenarios in a New Way 22
A Tool for Meeting Challenges 24
Boxed Insert: How the Future Affects Commitments
Businesses Make Today? 11
2 Thinking about the Future 27
Rules for Creating Scenarios 28
Start with the Past 28
viii • Contents
Move to the Future 29
Rely on Master Narratives 30
Romances 30
Tragedies 31
Comedies 32
Understand the Journey 34
Clarify the Uncertainties 39
Use Diverse Stories for Decision Making 41
Engage Employees 43
3 The Challenges Businesses Face 47
What Are the Challenges? 48
How Attractive Are the Options? 52
Repositioning 52
Restructuring 52
Globalization 53
Innovation 53
Does the Organization Have Needed Capabilities? 59
Does the Organization Have Stories about
What Might Happen? 60
Can the Organization Identify and Prepare for Surprises? 62
Looking Systematically at the Future 62
4 Population and Security Challenges 65
Looking for "Sweet Spots" 66
Finding Patterns 66
Finding Drivers 68
Attaching Vivid Names 70
Young and Educated 70
Relative Certainties and Uncertainties 73
Shell's Three Scenarios 73
Weak Signals and Wildcards 76
Irresolution 78
Motors of Change 79
"No Regrets" Strategy—Wal-Mart 79
Old and Feeble 80
Moving and Seeking 82
Young and Militant 82
Understanding Youth Violence 84
Historical Analogies 85
Indicators 87
Contents • ix
Empirical Evidence 88
Theory 88
What Businesses Can Do? 92
Tools for Creating Scenarios 93
Boxed Insert: Growth of the Elderly in the World 81
Boxed Insert: Wal-Mart and Best Buy—A Comparison 83
Political and Economic Challenges 95
Reasons to Create Alternative Stories 97
To Understand the Impacts on Industry Structure 97
To Examine the Potential Outcomes of the Moves
a Company Can Make 98
From Society to Government 101
The Centrality of Government 104
Government Scenarios 106
Free to Choose 106
Well-Regulated 108
Special Interests 109
Telecoms—An Example of Special Interests 109
Macroeconomic Scenarios 113
Turmoil and Instability (1930-1955) 114
Progress and Crisis (1956-1980) 115
Stable but Slower Growth (1981-2006) 117
Intersecting Stories 119
The Train Wreck 121
Boxed Insert: Strategic Change at Amazon 100
Boxed Insert: Monsanto's Quest HI
Boxed Insert: In and Out of Tune with the
Business Cycle 123
Energy and Environmental Challenges 127
An End to the Great Smoothing? 128
Energy Prices 128
Fuel Mix 130
Energy Politics 131
The Drivers of Change 133
Demand for and Supply of Energy 133
War and Global Politics 137
Climate Change 141
Boxed Insert: Overcoming Institutional Constraints
in Minnesota 131
x • Contents
Boxed Insert: Hope or Hype at General Motors 138
Boxed Insert: U.S. Carbon Emissions 144
Afterword Technology to the Rescue? 149
{with Massoud Amiri)
Key Differentiators 153
The New Genetics 154
Information Technology 155
Materials Advances 156
Energetics 156
Biomedical Engineering 156
Nanotechnology 157
Empowered by People 157
The Energy Gap 160
The Problem for Companies 161
Innovation versus Management 163
Systems Theory 165
Appendix A: Intersecting Stories of the Future 169
Appendix B: Social, Political, and Economic Indicators:
Web Resources 173
Appendix C: Additional Technological Opportunities 175
Notes 179
Further Reading 195
Index 199
Figures and Tables
Figures
3.1 The five-force plus model 50
3.2 The difference between past trends and
future developments 51
Tables
1.1 Hedging strategies 15
2.1 Master narratives 31
2.2 Diverse pasts and futures 35
3.1 Macroenvironmental impacts 55
3.2 Six potential futures 57
3.3 Acting on the opportunities and threats 63
4.1 Cross-impact analysis of a key driver 68
4.2 Relative certainties and uncertainties 74
4.3 Declining fertility rates in Middle East nations 89
5.1 Industry structure and alternative futures 96
5.2 Testing options against future conditions 99
5.3 Three patterns of past economic activity 113
6.1 The full model 129
6.2 A return to misery? 130
A.I Option identification 150
A.2 Option feasibility 150
A.3 Three roles for scenarios 153
A.4 Managing the tensions 163
A.5 System-level propositions 166 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Müller, Adrian W. 1976- Müller-Stewens, Günter 1951- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)137611919 (DE-588)11115281X |
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| dewey-full | 658.4012 |
| dewey-hundreds | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
| dewey-ones | 658 - General management |
| dewey-raw | 658.4012 |
| dewey-search | 658.4012 |
| dewey-sort | 3658.4012 |
| dewey-tens | 650 - Management and auxiliary services |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| indexdate | 2024-08-05T08:39:37Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783791028682 |
| language | German |
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| spellingShingle | Müller, Adrian W. 1976- Müller-Stewens, Günter 1951- Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien Organisatorischer Wandel stw Strategische Unternehmensplanung stw Strategisches Management - Unternehmensplanung - Zukunftsplanung Theorie stw Zukunftsforschung stw Strategische Frühaufklärung (DE-588)4281858-8 gnd Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 gnd Prozessmanagement (DE-588)4353072-2 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Zukunftsplanung (DE-588)4132877-2 gnd Strategisches Management (DE-588)4124261-0 gnd Trendforschung (DE-588)4316413-4 gnd |
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| title | Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien |
| title_auth | Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien |
| title_exact_search | Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien |
| title_full | Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien Adrian W. Müller ; Günter Müller-Stewens |
| title_fullStr | Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien Adrian W. Müller ; Günter Müller-Stewens |
| title_full_unstemmed | Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien Adrian W. Müller ; Günter Müller-Stewens |
| title_short | Strategic foresight |
| title_sort | strategic foresight trend und zukunftsforschung in unternehmen instrumente prozesse fallstudien |
| title_sub | Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien |
| topic | Organisatorischer Wandel stw Strategische Unternehmensplanung stw Strategisches Management - Unternehmensplanung - Zukunftsplanung Theorie stw Zukunftsforschung stw Strategische Frühaufklärung (DE-588)4281858-8 gnd Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 gnd Prozessmanagement (DE-588)4353072-2 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Zukunftsplanung (DE-588)4132877-2 gnd Strategisches Management (DE-588)4124261-0 gnd Trendforschung (DE-588)4316413-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Organisatorischer Wandel Strategische Unternehmensplanung Strategisches Management - Unternehmensplanung - Zukunftsplanung Theorie Zukunftsforschung Strategische Frühaufklärung Unternehmensplanung Prozessmanagement Unternehmen Zukunftsplanung Strategisches Management Trendforschung |
| url | http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=3194313&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017127041&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mulleradrianw strategicforesighttrendundzukunftsforschunginunternehmeninstrumenteprozessefallstudien AT mullerstewensgunter strategicforesighttrendundzukunftsforschunginunternehmeninstrumenteprozessefallstudien |
Beschreibung
THWS Würzburg Zentralbibliothek Lesesaal
| Signatur: |
1000 QP 325 M946 |
|---|---|
| Exemplar 1 | ausleihbar Verfügbar Bestellen |
| Exemplar 2 | ausleihbar für Studierende und Hausangehörige Checked out – Rückgabe bis: 31.12.2099 Vormerken |
THWS Schweinfurt Zentralbibliothek Lesesaal
| Signatur: |
2000 QP 325 M946 |
|---|---|
| Exemplar 1 | ausleihbar Verfügbar Bestellen |