Macroeconomic patterns and stories: [a guide for MBAs]
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin [u.a.]
Springer
2009
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | BTU01 FAN01 FHA01 FHM01 FHN01 FHR01 FKE01 FNU01 GEM01 HWR01 UBG01 UBR01 UBT01 UBY01 UPA01 Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (XVI, 359 S.) Ill., graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9783540463887 9783540463894 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-540-46389-4 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | CONTENTS PART I INTRODUCTION 1 INTRODUCTION: WE ARE PATTERN-SEEKING,
STORY-TELLING ANIMALS 3 1.1 ADVICE: DO BOTH PATTEMS AND STORIES 5 1.2 WE
CAN ALSO ANALYZE 7 1.3 PICTURES, WORDS, AND NUMBERS: IN THAT ORDER 9 1.4
ANALYTICAL THINKING: I THINK I CAN HELP 10 1.4.1 FORECASTING IS A
PARTICIPANT SPORT 10 1.4.2 TEIL SOMEONE ABOUT IT: IT WILL HELP YOU MORE
THAN THEM 11 1.5 WHATNOW? 11 1.6 PREVIEW: THE KEY PATTERN 12 1.7
DATASOURCES 12 1.7.1 UPDATED DISPLAYS 13 1.8 APPENDIX: STATISTICAL
SCIENCE IS SEVERELY LIMITED IN ITS APPLICABILITY 13 1.8.1 WAS THAT 1969
DRAFT LOTTERY RANDOM? WAS IT FAIR? 13 1.9 CONCLUSION 16 PART II FOUR KEY
VARIABLES: GROWTH, UNEMPLOYMENT, INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES 2 GROSS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT 19 2.1 DEFINITIONS 19 2.1.1 GDP IS AN IMPERFECT MEASURE
OF ECONOMIC/ MATERIAL SUCCESS 19 2.1.2 WHAT DO THOSE THREE LETTERS STAND
FOR? 22 2.1.3 WHAT S GROSS ABOUT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT? 24 2.1.4
WHAT S REAL ABOUT REAL GDP AND WHAT IS NOMINAL ABOUT NOMINAL
GDP ? 24 BIBLIOGRAFISCHE INFORMATIONEN HTTP://D-NB.INFO/98926291X
DIGITALISIERT DURCH X CONTENTS 2.1.5 WHAT DOES SAAR MEAN? 27 2.1.6 WHAT
IS AN ANNUALIZED COMPOUND RATE OF GROWTH? 28 2.2 WHAT DOES REAL GDP LOOK
LIKE? 28 2.2.1 DOES A LOGARITHMIC SCALE HELP? THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF US
GDP GROWTH 28 2.2.2 FOUR PICTURES: WHAT DOES GROWTH OF REAL GDP LOOK
LIKE? 30 2.2.3 HOW MUCH IS $10 TRILLION? DOES DIVIDING BY EMPLOYMENT
HELP? 34 APPENDIX: THE INDEX NUMBER PROBLEM AND CHAIN INDEXES 35
APPENDIX: THE SEASONAL IN GDP IS VERY LARGE 36 3 THECOMPONENTSOFGDP:C +
I + G + X-M 39 3.1 HOW MIGHT GDP BE MEASURED? 39 3.1.1 NATIONAL INCOME
AND EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION 40 3.2 HOW IS GDP ACTUALLY MEASURED? 42 3.3
HOW BIG ARE THE COMPONENTS: C, I, G, X - M? 44 3.3.1 WHICH ARE THE MOST
VOLATILE COMPONENTS OF GDP? 45 APPENDIX: GDP AND NATIONAL INCOME 49
APPENDIX: ANSWER TO FOOTNOTE QUESTION 49 APPENDIX: A BETTER WAY TO TREAT
IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 49 4 EMPLOYMENT 51 4.1 LABOR MARKET SURVEYS 51 4.1.1
CES: CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS 52 4.1.2 CPS: CURRENT POPULATION
SURVEY 56 4.1.3 INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 59 4.2 INDUSTRY COMPOSITION OF
PAYROLL JOBS 62 APPENDIX: WHICH TO RELY ON: BUSINESS-REPORTED PAYROLL
JOBS OR HOUSEHOLD-REPORTED PEOPLE-AT-WORK 62 5 INFLATION AND INTEREST
RATES 65 5.1 A PRICE IS A RATIO 66 5.2 THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) 66
5.3 TWO VIEWS OF INFLATION 67 5.3. CONTENTS XI 5.7 WHAT DETERMINES THE
SHAPE OF THE YIELD CURVE? 82 5.7.1 WHY IS THE YIELD CURVE GENERALLY
UPWARD SLOPING? 82 5.7.2 WHY IS THE YIELD CURVE SOMETIMES STEEP AND
SOMETIMES INVERTED? 83 5.7.3 WHAT DETERMINES THE LEVEL (NOT THE SLOPE)
OF THE YIELD CURVE? 85 APPENDIX: Q AND A FROM BLS WEB SITE REGARDING THE
CPI 86 APPENDIX: RISK CHARACTERISTICS OF BONDS 88 SUMMARY 90 6
EXTRAPOLATIVE FORECASTING 91 6.1 REGRESSION TOWARD THE MEAN 91 6.2
FORECASTING AND REGRESSION TOWARD THE MEAN 94 6.3 PERSISTENCE, MOMENTUM
96 6.4 PICTURES THAT HELP TO UNDERSTAND THE NUMBERS 99 6.5 STORIES THAT
HELP TO UNDERSTAND THE NUMBERS 99 PART IIIA RECESSION SYMPTOMS 7
UNWANTED IDLENESS: RECESSIONS AND RECOVERIES 103 7.1 WORKER IDLENESS:
UNEMPLOYMENT 104 7.1.1 THE NBER DEFINITION OF A RECESSION ISN T SO GREAT
104 7.1.2 IDENTIFYING THE RECESSIONS IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT DATA IS CHILD S
PLAY 105 7.2 CAPITAL IDLENESS: CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN MANUFACTURING 107
7.3 WORK INTENSITY: HOURS PER WEEK IN MANUFACTURING 108 7.4 FIVE
EPISODES: NORMAL GROWTH, SPUTTERS, SPURTS, RECESSIONS AND RECOVERIES 109
8 RECESSION COMPARISON CHARTS 111 8.1 RECESSION COMPARISONS: EMPLOYMENT
AND OUTPUT 111 8.1.1 PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 111 8.1.2 REAL GDP 113 8.2
IDLENESS 115 8.2.1 HOUSEHOLD UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 115 8.2. X Y CONTENTS 9
WHO STRUGGLES AND WHO DOES WELL IN RECESSIONS? 123 9.1 JOB LOSSES IN
RECESSIONS AFFECT SOME SECTORS MORE THAN OTHERS 124 9.1.1 THE 2001
RECESSION WAS AN ANOMALY 130 9.1.2 WITH THAT ANOMALOUS 2001 RECESSION,
WHAT WILL THE NEXT RECESSION BE LIKE? 132 9.2 MANY SECTORS LOSE PROFITS
IN RECESSIONS 133 PART HI B RECESSION STORIES 10 IDLENESS STORIES 139
10.1 HOW DO ECONOMISTS EXPLAIN UNWANTED IDLENESS? 140 10.1.1 THE JOB
CYCLE IS MOSTLY CONSTRUCTION AND MANUFACTURING 143 10.2 BROKEN
RELATIONSHIPS 143 10.3 SOAKING THE RIEH WHEN TIMES ARE BAD 146 10.4
MAKING DO WITH THE OLD CAR 149 10.5 A PYRRHIC VICTORY OF HOPE OVER
REASON 150 APPENDIX: SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODELS OF UNEMPLOYMENT 152 11
CYCLE STORIES 155 11.1 THE HARROD-SAMUELSON MULTIPLIER-ACCELERATOR MODEL
158 11.2 SOME ACCELERATION FACTS 160 11.3 THE SUPPLY CHAIN BULL-WHIP 162
11.4 RUSH TO EXPLOIT NEW IDEAS 164 11.4.1 THE INTENSIVE MARGIN AND THE
EXTENSIVE MARGIN 164 11.4.2 THE SIMPLE AGRONOMY OF AN IDEA RUSH 167
11.4.3 KONDRATIEFF LONG WAVES 169 11.5 PONZI SCHEINES AND ASSET BUBBLES
170 11.5.1 HOUSING BUBBLES 171 PART IIIC RECESSION EARLY WARNING SIGNS
12 CLUES: TEMPORAL ORDERING OF COMPONENTS OF GDP 175 12.1 HELP FROM
SHERLOCK HOLMES 176 12. CONTENTS XIII 12.6 A STORY OF THE CONSUMER
CYCLE: OUR COLLECTIVE BIPOLAR DISEASE 196 12.7 NUMBERS, IF THE PICTURES
ARE NOT ENOUGH 197 12.7.1 REGRESSION ANALYSES TO SUPPORT WHAT THE
PICTURES SAY ... 197 12.7.2 A SUMMARY TABLE 199 12.8 SUMMARY 201
APPENDIX: NORMAL CONTRIBUTIONS IN THREE EPISODES 201 13 MORE CLUES:
EPISODIC FORECASTING WITH COMPONENTS OF CONFERENCE BOARD S INDEX OF
LEADING INDICATORS 203 13.1 COMPONENTS OF THE LEADING INDICATOR INDEX
203 13.2 FORGET THAT EXPECTATIONS VARIABLE 205 13.3 ONLY A FEW OF THOSE
COMPONENTS PREDICT ONCOMING RECESSIONS 207 13.4 COMBINING THE COMPONENTS
INTO AN OVERALL INDEX 211 APPENDIX: DESCRIPTION OF LEADING INDICATORS
214 PART HI D RECESSION CAUSES 14 THE ART OF DRAWING CAUSAL INFERENCES
FROM NONEXPERIMENTAL DATA . .219 14.1 POST HOC ERGO PROPTER HOC 219 14.2
CAUSE = INTERVENTION 221 14.2.1 OUR HYPOTHETICAL INTERVENTIONS ARE VERY
FEW 222 14.3 THERE ARE MANY ROADBLOCKS IN THE WAY OF CAUSAL INFERENCES
223 14.3.1 WE CAN PRETEND TO DRAW CAUSAL INFERENCES, EVEN IF WE CANNOT
DO IT 225 14.4 USE BIOLOGICAL, NOT MECHANICAL METAPHORS 226 15 IN SEARCH
OF RECESSION CAUSES 231 15.1 WHAT ARE WE LOOKING FOR? 232 15.2 FISCAL
POLICY SEEMS TO BOTH CAUSE AND PREVENT RECESSIONS 235 15.2.1 THE
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE IS IMPLICATED I X J V CONTENTS APPENDIX: TWO MORE
CAUSES 258 OIL PRICE INCREASES PRECEDED SOME OF THE RECESSIONS 258
WEAKNESS IN EXPORTS HAS NOT CAUSED US RECESSIONS 258 PART IV EXPANSIONS:
WITH AND WITHOUT SPURTS 16 THE LIFE CYCLE OF US EXPANSIONS: SPUTTERS AND
SPURTS 263 16.1 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT DURING EXPANSIONS 264 16.1.1
REAL GDP GROWS DURING ECONOMIC EXPANSIONS 264 16.1.2 LABOR MARKETS
SOMETIMES TIGHTEN TWICE DURING EXPANSIONS 266 16.1.3 CYCLES IN HOURS AND
UNEMPLOYMENT 267 16.1.4 SPURT COMPARISON GRAPHS 273 16.2 WHAT CAUSED THE
SPURTS? 274 16.2.1 A BIG FISCAL STIMULUS HAS THREE TIMES REJUVENATED A
SPUTTERING ECONOMY 275 16.2.2 THE REAGAN SPURT WAS HELPED BY FALLING
INTEREST RATES, FALLING OIL PRICES AND A FALLING VALUE OF THE DOLLAR
(WHICH STIMULATED EXPORTS) 277 16.2.3 ANIMAL SPIRITS AND THE MAD DASH
FOR THE WEB DROVE THE CLINTON SPURT 279 APPENDIX: PRESIDENTS AND FED
CHAIRMEN 280 PART V THE LONGER RUN: SAVINGS, INVESTMENT, GOVERNMENT
BORROWING, FOREIGN LENDING AND YOUR HOME 17 SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT 283
17.1 THE NIPA DEFINITION OF SAVINGS: IT IS NOT WHAT YOU THINK 283 17.1.1
INVESTMENTS ARE NEW HOMES, NEW OFFICES, NEW FACTORIES, AND NEW EQUIPMENT
283 17.1.2 FLOWS AND NOT STOCKS 284 17.1.3 SAVINGS DEPENDS ON WHAT
CONSUMPTION IS 285 17. CONTENTS XV 18 GOVERNMENT 299 18.1 GOVERNMENT
PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES ARE NOT AS GREAT AS YOU THINK 299 18.2
IT S TRANSFERS 300 18.2.1 TRANSFERS ARE DONE ALSO BY STATE GOVERNMENTS
302 18.2.2 THOSE TRANSFERS ARE MOSTLY SOCIAL SECURITY, MEDICARE, AND
MEDICAID 303 18.2.3 THE STATES DO NOT RUN DEFICITS 305 18.3 AN
ACCOUNTING SCANDAL TO RIVAL ENRON: PHANTOM ASSETS CREATED BY GOVERNMENT
BORROWING 305 18.4 THE OUTSTANDING FEDERAL DEBT IS GREAT ENOUGH TO BE
WORRISOME 307 18.5 THE REAL EFFECT OF THE FEDERAL DEFICIT: TRICKLE-DOWN
SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITIES 308 18.5.1 BEING A GROWN-UP 309 18.5.2 THE
DEBATE OVER THE PRIVATIZATION OF SOCIAL SECURITY IS CONFUSING ALL OF US
310 19 THE EXTERNAL DEFICIT AND THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR HU S IN CHARGE?
313 19.1 AN IMPORTANT ACCOUNTING IDENTITY: THE CURRENT ACCOUNT = THE
CAPITAL ACCOUNT 314 19.2 WHAT DETERMINES THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR AND THE
EXTERNAL DEFICIT? 318 19.2.1 THE EXCHANGE RATE 318 19.2.2 THE REAL
EXCHANGE RATE 319 19.2.3 THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF US DOLLARS 321 19.2.4
US DEFICITS: GOOD OR BAD? 322 19.3 HOW CAN THE US EXTERNAL DEFICIT
CLOSE? 323 19.3.1 CAPITAL ACCOUNT ADJUSTMENT: FOREIGN INVESTORS GO
ELSEWHERE 325 19.3.2 CAPITAL ACCOUNT ADJUSTMENT: MORE US SAVINGS 326
19.3.3 CURRENT ACCOUNT ADJUSTMENT: BARRIERS AGAINST IMPORTS... 326 2 XVI
CONTENTS 20.3.5 FUNDAMENTAL VALUATION DEPENDS ON THE GROWTH OF EARNINGS
AND THE DISCOUNT RATE 339 20.3.6 A HOUSE HAS A P/E RATIO, TOO 341 20.3.7
THE P/R RATIOS IN US CITIES 341 20.4 SOME REALITIES OF A VERY IMPERFECT
OWNERSHIP MARKET: THE VERY PERSISTENT GAP BETWEEN VALUES AND PRICES 343
20.4.1 HOME APPRAISALS: BOB S $1 MILLION TIE 343 20.4.2 HORMONES AND
HOUSING: IT S A VOLUME CYCLE NOT A PRICE CYCLE 344 APPENDIX: HOMEWORK RE
THE LA MARKET 349 APPENDIX: HOME OWNERSHIP DATA FROM THE SURVEY OF
CONSUMER FINANCES 350 APPENDIX: RENTS OR ASSET PRICES IN THE CPI? 351
OWNER-EQUIVALENT RENT 351 APPENDIX: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A HOUSING
SHORTAGE 352 SUPPLY RESTRICTIONS DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT PRICES CAN ONLY
GO UP 353 INDEX 355
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Leamer, Edward E. |
| author_facet | Leamer, Edward E. |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Leamer, Edward E. |
| author_variant | e e l ee eel |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV035315911 |
| classification_rvk | QC 300 QN 200 |
| collection | ZDB-2-SBE |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1195542870 (DE-599)BVBBV035315911 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/978-3-540-46389-4 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| genre | (DE-588)4123623-3 Lehrbuch gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Lehrbuch |
| id | DE-604.BV035315911 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:31:07Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783540463887 9783540463894 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-017120576 |
| oclc_num | 1195542870 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-739 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-M347 DE-703 DE-1102 DE-1049 DE-634 DE-Aug4 DE-2070s DE-M382 DE-859 DE-706 DE-92 |
| owner_facet | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-739 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-M347 DE-703 DE-1102 DE-1049 DE-634 DE-Aug4 DE-2070s DE-M382 DE-859 DE-706 DE-92 |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (XVI, 359 S.) Ill., graph. Darst. |
| psigel | ZDB-2-SBE |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Leamer, Edward E. Verfasser aut Macroeconomic patterns and stories [a guide for MBAs] Edward E. Leamer Berlin [u.a.] Springer 2009 1 Online-Ressource (XVI, 359 S.) Ill., graph. Darst. txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4123623-3 Lehrbuch gnd-content Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 s DE-604 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-46389-4 Verlag Volltext DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017120576&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Leamer, Edward E. Macroeconomic patterns and stories [a guide for MBAs] Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4037174-8 (DE-588)4123623-3 |
| title | Macroeconomic patterns and stories [a guide for MBAs] |
| title_auth | Macroeconomic patterns and stories [a guide for MBAs] |
| title_exact_search | Macroeconomic patterns and stories [a guide for MBAs] |
| title_full | Macroeconomic patterns and stories [a guide for MBAs] Edward E. Leamer |
| title_fullStr | Macroeconomic patterns and stories [a guide for MBAs] Edward E. Leamer |
| title_full_unstemmed | Macroeconomic patterns and stories [a guide for MBAs] Edward E. Leamer |
| title_short | Macroeconomic patterns and stories |
| title_sort | macroeconomic patterns and stories a guide for mbas |
| title_sub | [a guide for MBAs] |
| topic | Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Makroökonomie Lehrbuch |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-46389-4 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017120576&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT leameredwarde macroeconomicpatternsandstoriesaguideformbas |