Development macroeconomics:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Princeton, NJ [u.a.]
Princeton Univ. Press
2008
|
| Ausgabe: | 3. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references (p. 699-750) and index |
| Beschreibung: | XX, 787 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780691130903 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Development macroeconomics |c Pierre-Richard Agénor and Peter J. Montiel |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804137998746386432 |
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| adam_text | CONTENTS J PREFACE TO THE THIRD EDITION XIX INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW I
1 OVERVIEW OF THE BOOK 2 2 SOME METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES 7 1 I SCOPE OF
DEVELOPMENT MACROECONOMICS 10 1 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND 12 2 ECONOMIC
STRUCTURE AND MACROECONOMICS 14 2.1 OPENNESS TO TRADE IN GOODS AND
ASSETS 15 2.2 EXCHANGE-RATE MANAGEMENT 17 2.3 DOMESTIC FINANCIAL MARKETS
17 2.4 THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET 18 2.5 AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND THE LABOR
MARKET 20 2.6 STABILITY OF POLICY REGIMES 22 2.7 MACROECONOMIC
VOLATILITY AND FLUCTUATIONS 23 2.8 INCOME INEQUALITY 27 3 SOME SPECIAL
TOPICS 28 PARTI MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS, MARKET STRUCTURE, AND BEHAVIORAL
FUNCTIONS 2 I AGGREGATE ACCOUNTS, PRODUCTION, AND MARKET STRUCTURE 35 1
A GENERAL ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK 35 1.1 THE NONFINANCIAL PRIVATE SECTOR 36
1.2 THE PUBLIC SECTOR 37 1.2.1 THE NONFINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR 37 1.2.2
THE CENTRAL BANK 38 1.2.3 THE CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR 39 1.3 THE
COMMERCIAL BANKING SYSTEM 40 1.4 AGGREGATE RELATIONSHIPS 40 2 PRODUCTION
STRUCTURE IN AN OPEN ECONOMY 41 2.1 THE MUNDELL-FLEMING MODEL 41 2.2 THE
DEPENDENT ECONOMY MODEL 45 2.3 A MODEL WITH THREE GOODS 48 3 THE
STRUCTURE OF LABOR MARKETS 51 3.1 FUNCTIONING OF LABOR MARKETS 52 3.2
OPEN AND DISGUISED UNEMPLOYMENT 54 VIII CONTENTS 3.3 INDEXATION AND WAGE
RIGIDITY 55 3.4 LABOR MARKET SEGMENTATION 56 3 J BEHAVIORAL FUNCTIONS 62
1 CONSUMPTION AND SAVING 62 1.1 CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING 66 1.2 PLANNING
HORIZON AND LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS 67 1.3 LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS AND
ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS 69 1.4 EFFECTS OF INTEREST RATE CHANGES ON SAVINGS 73
1.5 PUBLIC AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION 74 2 PRIVATE INVESTMENT 74 2.1
CONVENTIONAL DETERMINANTS 75 2.2 REFORMULATION OF THEORIES 76 2.2.1
NATURE OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM 76 2.2.2 IMPORTED GOODS 76 2.2.3 DEBT
OVERHANG EFFECTS 77 2.2.4 ROLE OF PUBLIC CAPITAL 77 2.2.5 MACROECONOMIC
INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY 78 2.3 UNCERTAINTY AND IRREVERSIBILITY
EFFECTS 79 3 THE DEMAND FOR MONEY 82 3.1 CONVENTIONAL MODELS 83 3.2
CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AND MONEY DEMAND 85 PART II FINANCIAL POLICIES 4 [
THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET AND FISCAL MANAGEMENT 91 1 THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET
CONSTRAINT 92 2 THE MEASUREMENT OF FISCAL DEFICITS 94 3 CONTINGENT
LIABILITIES 96 4 SEIGNIORAGE AND INFLATIONARY FINANCE 97 4.1 THE OPTIMAL
INFLATION TAX 98 4.2 COLLECTION LAGS AND THE OLIVERA-TANZI EFFECT 100
4.3 COLLECTION COSTS AND TAX SYSTEM EFFICIENCY 105 4.4 FINANCIAL
REPRESSION AND THE INFLATION TAX 106 5 POLICY CONSISTENCY AND SOLVENCY
111 5.1 THE INTERTEMPORAL SOLVENCY CONSTRAINT 112 5.2 FINANCING
CONSTRAINTS AND POLICY CONSISTENCY 114 6 FISCAL RULES AND FISCAL
DISCIPLINE 116 APPENDIX: FISCAL EFFECTS OF PRIVATIZATION 117 5 I
MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY 120 1 RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE 120 2
DEFICITS, INFLATION, AND THE TIGHT MONEY PARADOX 122 CONTENTS IX 2.1
THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 123 2.2 CONSTANT PRIMARY DEFICIT 125 2.3
CONSTANT CONVENTIONAL DEFICIT 127 3 DEFICITS, INTEREST RATES, AND
CROWDING OUT 131 3.1 EXPECTATIONS, DEFICITS, AND REAL INTEREST RATES 131
3.2 DEFICITS, INVESTMENT, AND CROWDING OUT 137 4 BUDGET DEFICITS AND THE
CURRENT ACCOUNT 138 5 EXPANSIONARY FISCAL CONTRACTIONS 139 6 FISCAL
ADJUSTMENT AND THE LABOR MARKET 140 6.1 THE MODEL 141 6.1.1 THE FORMAL
ECONOMY 142 6.1.2 THE INFORMAL SECTOR 145 6.1.3 CONSUMPTION AND WEALTH
145 6.1.4 MARKET FOR INFORMAL SECTOR GOODS 146 6.1.5 THE INFORMAL LABOR
MARKET 146 6.1.6 GOVERNMENT 147 6.2 DYNAMIC STRUCTURE 147 6.3
STEADY-STATE SOLUTION 149 6.4 GOVERNMENT SPENDING CUT 152 6 J FINANCIAL
MARKETS AND THE TRANSMISSION PROCESS OF MONETARY POLICY 154 1 FINANCIAL
STRUCTURE AND THE ROLE OF BANKS 154 2 ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND CREDIT
156 2.1 THE STIGLITZ-WEISS MODEL OF CREDIT RATIONING 157 2.2
COSTLY-STATE VERIFICATION MODELS 162 2.2.1 BANK CREDIT AND THE SUPPLY
SIDE 163 2.2.2 THE COST OF FUNDS-CONTRACTUAL INTEREST RATE CURVE 166
2.2.3 INTERMEDIATION COSTS, EMPLOYMENT, AND OUTPUT 169 2.3 NET WORTH AND
BORROWING CONSTRAINTS 170 3 TRANSMISSION PROCESS OF MONETARY POLICY: AN
OVERVIEW 176 3.1 THE PASS-THROUGH OF POLICY RATES TO MARKET RATES 176
3.2 INTEREST RATE EFFECTS 178 3.3 EXCHANGE-RATE EFFECTS 180 3.4 ASSET
PRICES AND BALANCE SHEET EFFECTS 181 3.4.1 NET WORTH AND THE FINANCE
PREMIUM 182 3.4.2 THE FINANCIAL ACCELERATOR 182 3.5 CREDIT AVAILABILITY
EFFECTS 185 3.6 EXPECTATIONS 185 4 DOLLARIZATION 186 4.1 DETERMINANTS OF
DOLLARIZATION 186 4.2 PERSISTENCE OF DOLLARIZATION 187 4.3 DOLLARIZATION
AND MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT 188 CONTENTS 7 | A FRAMEWORK FOR MONETARY
POLICY ANALYSIS 191 1 THE BASIC MODEL: FIXED EXCHANGE RATES 192 1.1
STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL 193 1.1.1 HOUSEHOLD PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION 193
1.1.2 COMMERCIAL BANKS 194 1.1.3 CENTRAL BANK 197 1.1.4 PRICE LEVEL AND
THE REAL SECTOR 198 1.2 MODEL SOLUTION 199 1.3 POLICY AND EXOGENOUS
SHOCKS 203 1.3.1 INCREASE IN THE REFINANCE RATE 203 1.3.2 CENTRAL BANK
AUCTIONS 204 1.3.3 INCREASE IN THE REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO 206 1.3.4
SHIFTS IN THE RISK PREMIUM AND CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT COSTS 207 1.3.5
CHANGES IN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND WORLD INTEREST RATES 208 2 FLEXIBLE
EXCHANGE RATES 209 2.1 MODEL STRUCTURE 209 2.2 SOLUTION 213 2.3 POLICY
AND EXOGENOUS SHOCKS 218 2.3.1 INCREASE IN THE REFINANCE RATE 218 2.3.2
CENTRAL BANK AUCTIONS 219 2.3.3 INCREASE IN THE REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO
220 2.3.4 SHIFTS IN THE RISK PREMIUM AND CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT COSTS 221
2.3.5 CHANGES IN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND WORLD INTEREST RATES 222 3
EXTENSIONS 224 3.1 STERILIZATION 224 3.2 WORKING CAPITAL NEEDS 227 8 |
INFLATION TARGETING AND INTEREST RATE RULES 232 1 BASIC FRAMEWORK:
CLOSED ECONOMY 233 1.1 STRICT INFLATION TARGETING 234 1.2 POLICY
TRADE-OFFS AND FLEXIBLE TARGETING 237 2 INFLATION TARGETING IN AN OPEN
ECONOMY 240 3 COMPARISON WITH OTHER REGIMES 243 3.1 MONETARY TARGETING
243 3.2 EXCHANGE-RATE TARGETING 245 3.3 NOMINAL INCOME TARGETING 247 4
BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR INFLATION TARGETING 253 4.1 CENTRAL BANK
INDEPENDENCE AND CREDIBILITY 253 4.2 ABSENCE OF FISCAL DOMINANCE 254
CONTENTS XI 4.3 ABSENCE OF DE FACTO EXCHANGE-RATE TARGETING 254 4.4
HEALTHY FINANCIAL SYSTEM 255 4.5 TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY 256 5
INTEREST RATE RULES IN PRACTICE 257 6 SOME ANALYTICAL ISSUES 260 6.1
NON-QUADRATIC POLICY PREFERENCES 261 6.2 UNCERTAINTY AND OPTIMAL POLICY
RULES 262 6.3 CONVEX PHILLIPS CURVE 265 9 I CHOOSING AN EXCHANGE-RATE
REGIME I: CREDIBILITY, FLEXIBILITY, AND WELFARE 269 1 BASIC TYPOLOGY 269
2 EVOLUTION OF EXCHANGE-RATE REGIMES 270 3 POLICY TRADE-OFFS AND
CREDIBILITY 272 3.1 TIME INCONSISTENCY AND EXCHANGE-RATE POLICY 273 3.2
CREDIBILITY OF A FIXED EXCHANGE RATE 278 3.3 REPUTATION, SIGNALING, AND
COMMITMENT 278 4 CREDIBILITY VS. FLEXIBILITY: ROLE OF BANDS 281 4.1
RATIONALE FOR BANDS 282 4.2 BANDS AND MONETARY POLICY CREDIBILITY 283
4.3 EXPERIENCE WITH BANDS 285 5 CURRENCY UNIONS 286 5.1 CREDIBILITY
EFFECTS OF MONETARY UNIONS 287 5.2 WELFARE EFFECTS OF OPTIMUM CURRENCY
AREAS 290 5.2.1 THE MODEL 291 5.2.2 EQUILIBRIUM 293 5.2.3 WELFARE
EFFECTS 294 APPENDIX: KRUGMAN S TARGET ZONE MODEL 297 10 I CHOOSING AN
EXCHANGE-RATE REGIME H: THE ROLE OF SHOCKS, CONTRACTIONARY EFFECTS, AND
MORAL HAZARD 302 1 ROLE OF SHOCKS 302 1.1 MODEL SPECIFICATION 302 1.2
MODEL SOLUTION 305 2 CONTRACTIONARY EFFECTS 309 2.1 EFFECTS ON AGGREGATE
DEMAND 309 2.1.1 CONSUMPTION 310 2.1.2 INVESTMENT 319 2.1.3 NOMINAL
INTEREST RATES 322 2.2 EFFECTS ON AGGREGATE SUPPLY 325 2.2.1 EFFECTS ON
THE NOMINAL WAGE 325 2.2.2 IMPORTED INPUTS 328 2.2.3 EFFECTS THROUGH
WORKING-CAPITAL COSTS 330 2.2.4 EFFECTS THROUGH BALANCE SHEETS 332 XII
CONTENTS 3 MORAL HAZARD PROBLEMS 333 4 AN ASSESSMENT 333 PART III
INFLATION STABILIZATION 11 I AN OVERVIEW OF STABILIZATION PROGRAMS 339 1
POPULISM 340 1.1 CHILE UNDER ALLENDE (1970-1973) 341 1.2 PERU UNDER
GARCIA (1986-1990) 342 2 ORTHODOX MONEY-BASED STABILIZATION 343 2.1
CHILE {SEPTEMBER 1973) 343 2.2 BOLIVIA (AUGUST 29,1985) 345 3
EXCHANGE-RATE-BASED (SOUTHERN CONE) STABILIZATION PROGRAMS 347 3.1 CHILE
(FEBRUARY 1978) 347 3.2 URUGUAY (OCTOBER 1978) 348 3.3 ARGENTINA
(DECEMBER 1978) 350 4 HETERODOX PROGRAMS 351 4.1 ARGENTINA (JUNE
14,1985) 352 4.2 ISRAEL (JULY 1,1985) 355 4.3 BRAZIL (FEBRUARY 28,1986)
360 4.4 MEXICO (DECEMBER 1987) 362 5 ARGENTINA S CONVERTIBILITY PLAN
(1991-1997) 364 6 BRAZIL S REAL PLAN (1994-1999) 367 7 LESSONS OF
STABILIZATION 371 12 | INFLATION AND SHORT-RUN DYNAMICS 373 1 MODELS OF
THE INFLATIONARY PROCESS 373 1.1 INFLATION, MONEY, AND FISCAL DEFICITS
374 1.1.1 ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS 376 1.1.2 PERFECT FORESIGHT 377 1.2 FOOD
SUPPLY AND THE WAGE-PRICE CYCLE 380 1.3 A STRUCTURALIST-MONETARIST MODEL
385 2 DYNAMICS OF ALTERNATIVE POLICY RULES 388 2.1 A ONE-GOOD FRAMEWORK
388 2.1.1 HOUSEHOLDS 389 2.1.2 GOVERNMENT AND THE CENTRAL BANK 392 2.1.3
MONEY MARKET EQUILIBRIUM 393 2.1.4 DYNAMIC FORM 393 2.1.5 DEVALUATION
RULE 395 2.1.6 CREDIT GROWTH RULE 398 2.1.7 DYNAMICS WITH ALTERNATIVE
FISCAL POLICY RULES 400 2.2 A THREE-GOOD MODEL WITH FLEXIBLE PRICES 401
CONTENTS XIII 2.2.1 HOUSEHOLDS 401 2.2.2 OUTPUT AND THE LABOR MARKET 404
2.2.3 CENTRAL BANK AND THE GOVERNMENT 404 2.2.4 MARKET-CLEARING
CONDITIONS 404 2.2.5 DYNAMIC FORM 405 2.2.6 POLICY EXPERIMENTS 408 2.3
EXTENSIONS 414 23.1 IMPORTED INTERMEDIATE INPUTS 414 2.3.2 STICKY PRICES
414 APPENDIX: IMPACT AND STEADY-STATE EFFECTS 417 13 | ANALYTICAL ISSUES
IN DISINFLATION PROGRAMS 420 1 TOPICS IN EXCHANGE-RATE-BASED PROGRAMS
420 1.1 THE BOOM-RECESSION CYCLE 421 1.1.1 EXPECTATIONS, REAL INTEREST
RATES, AND OUTPUT 421 1.1.2 THE TEMPORARINESS HYPOTHESIS 426 1.1.3 AN
ASSESSMENT 434 1.2 THE BEHAVIOR OF REAL INTEREST RATES 440 1.2.1
CREDIBILITY, NOMINAL ANCHORS, AND INTEREST RATES 440 1.2.2 EXPECTATIONS,
FISCAL ADJUSTMENT, AND INTEREST RATES 441 1.3 DISINFLATION AND REAL
WAGES 443 2 ROLE OF CREDIBILITY IN DISINFLATION PROGRAMS 451 2.1 SOURCES
OF CREDIBILITY PROBLEMS 452 2.1.1 INTERNAL INCONSISTENCY 452 2.1.2 TIME
INCONSISTENCY 453 2.1.3 ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION 455 2.1.4 POLICY
UNCERTAINTY AND STOCHASTIC SHOCKS 455 2.1.5 POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY 456
2.2 ENHANCING THE CREDIBILITY OF DISINFLATION PROGRAMS 457 2.2.1
SIGNALING AND SUSTAINABILITY 457 2.2.2 PRICE CONTROLS 459 2.2.3 CENTRAL
BANK INDEPENDENCE 466 2.2.4 EXTERNAL ENFORCEMENT AND FOREIGN ASSISTANCE
468 2.2.5 SEQUENCING AND POLITICAL SUPPORT 470 2.3 POLICY LESSONS 472 3
DISINFLATION AND NOMINAL ANCHORS 474 APPENDIX: OUTPUT EFFECTS OF PRICE
CONTROLS 477 PART IV CAPITAL FLOWS AND FINANCIAL CRISES 14 I FINANCIAL
INTEGRATION, CAPITAL INFLOWS, AND SUDDEN STOPS 483 1 BENEFITS AND COSTS
OF FINANCIAL INTEGRATION 484 1.1 POTENTIAL BENEFITS 484 XIV CONTENTS
1.1.1 CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING 484 1.1.2 DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND GROWTH 485
1.1.3 ENHANCED MACROECONOMIC DISCIPLINE 488 1.1.4 BANKING SYSTEM
EFFICIENCY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY 488 1.2 POTENTIAL COSTS 489 1.2.1
CONCENTRATION OF CAPITAL FLOWS AND LACK OF ACCESS 489 1.2.2 DOMESTIC
MISALLOCATION OF CAPITAL FLOWS 489 1.2.3 LOSS OF MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
490 1.2.4 PROCYCLICALITY OF SHORT-TERM FLOWS 491 1.2.5 HERDING,
CONTAGION, AND VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL FLOWS 491 1.2.6 RISK OF ENTRY BY
FOREIGN BANKS 493 1.3 ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE 494 2 DETERMINANTS OF
CAPITAL INFLOWS 498 2.T PULL FACTORS 499 2.2 PUSH FACTORS 500 2.3
ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE 504 3 MANAGING CAPITAL INFLOWS: POLICY OPTIONS
506 3.1 RESTRICTIONS ON GROSS INFLOWS 507 3.2 ENCOURAGEMENT OF GROSS
OUTFLOWS 508 3.3 TRADE LIBERALIZATION 509 3.4 EXCHANGE-RATE FLEXIBILITY
510 3.5 STERILIZATION 511 3.6 POLICIES TO INFLUENCE THE MONEY MULTIPLIER
512 3.7 FISCAL CONTRACTION 513 4 SUDDEN STOPS 513 4.1 ALTERNATIVE MODELS
515 4.1.1 MODELS WITH MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA 515 4.1.2 A SUDDEN STOP AS A
UNIQUE EQUILIBRIUM 517 4.2 THE ROLE OF RESERVES AND POLICY RESPONSES 520
APPENDIX: MEASURING THE DEGREE OF FINANCIAL INTEGRATION 521 15 I
EXCHANGE-RATE CRISES 525 1 CURRENCY CRISES: CONVENTIONAL APPROACH 526
1.1 THE BASIC MODEL 526 1.2 EXTENSIONS TO THE BASIC FRAMEWORK 532 1.2.1
STERILIZATION 532 1.2.2 ALTERNATIVE POST-COLLAPSE REGIMES 533 1.2.3 REAL
EFFECTS OF AN ANTICIPATED COLLAPSE 534 1.2.4 BORROWING, CAPITAL
CONTROLS, AND CRISIS POSTPONEMENT 536 1.2.5 INTEREST RATE DEFENSE 538
1.2.6 OTHER DIRECTIONS 539 2 POLICY TRADE-OFFS AND SELF-FUIFILLING
CRISES 541 2.1 EXAMPLE BASED ON OUTPUT-INFLATION TRADE-OFFS 541 CONTENTS
XV 2.2 PUBLIC DEBT AND SELF-FULFILLING CRISES 544 2.3 ROLE OF
CREDIBILITY AND REPUTATION 545 2.4 OTHER SOURCES OF POLICY TRADE-OFFS
547 3 A CROSS-GENERATION FRAMEWORK 548 4 THIRD-GENERATION MODELS 549 5
EVIDENCE ON EXCHANGE-RATE CRISES 551 5.1 THE MEXICAN PESO CRISIS
(DECEMBER 1994) 551 5.1.1 BACKGROUND: STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND THE
SOLIDARITY PACT 552 5.1.2 POLICY RESPONSES TO CAPITAL INFLOWS, 1989-1993
553 5.1.3 THE BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CRISIS 554 5.2 THE THAI BAHT CRISIS
(JULY 1997) 559 5.2.1 BACKGROUND 560 5.2.2 TRIGGERING EVENTS 561 5.2.3
EMERGENCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE CRISIS 562 5.3 BRAZIL S REAL CRISIS
(JANUARY 1999) 567 5.4 ARGENTINA S PESO CRISIS (JANUARY 2002) 569 5.4.1
BACKGROUND 569 5.4.2 THE BUILDUP OF VULNERABILITY 571 5.4.3 A PERFECT
STORM IN 1998-2001 573 5.4.4 THE CRISIS 574 APPENDIX: CREDIBILITY,
REPUTATION, AND CURRENCY CRISES 576 16 | BANKING CRISES AND TWIN CRISES
579 1 BANKS AS MATURITY TRANSFORMERS 581 1.1 THE DIAMOND-DYBVIG
FRAMEWORK 581 1.2 BUSINESS CYCLES AND BANKING CRISES 584 2 TWIN CRISES
585 2.1 A BASIC MODEL WITH CLOSE LINKAGES 586 2.2 THE CHANG-VELASCO
FRAMEWORK 589 2.3 THE FLOOD-MARION JOINT DISTRIBUTION APPROACH 592 3
ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND OPPORTUNISM 592 4 DETERMINANTS OF BANKING
CRISES: EVIDENCE 594 4.1 EPISODIC CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE 595 4.2
SIGNALING APPROACH 596 4.3 ECONOMETRIC INVESTIGATIONS 597 PARTV GROWTH,
STRUCTURAL REFORMS, AND POLITICAL ECONOMY 17 I MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
AND GROWTH 603 1 THE NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL 604 2 EXTERNALITIES AND
INCREASING RETURNS 608 3 HUMAN CAPITAL, KNOWLEDGE, AND GROWTH 610 XVI
CONTENTS 3.1 THE PRODUCTION OF HUMAN CAPITAL. 6IO 3.2 THE PRODUCTION OF
KNOWLEDGE 611 4 GOVERNMENT SPENDING, TAXES, AND GROWTH 615 4.1 THE BARRO
MODEL 618 4.2 INFRASTRUCTURE, HEALTH, AND GROWTH 620 4.2.1 PRODUCTION
620 4.2.2 HOUSEHOLD PREFERENCES 620 4.2.3 PRODUCTION OF HEALTH SERVICES
621 4.2.4 GOVERNMENT 621 4.3 THE DECENTRALIZED EQUILIBRIUM 622 4.4
OPTIMAL POLICIES 624 4.5 A STOCK APPROACH 627 5 FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
AND GROWTH 630 5.1 EFFECTS ON THE SAVING RATE 631 5.2 EFFECTS ON THE
ALLOCATION OF CAPITAL 631 5.3 INTERMEDIATION COSTS AND EFFICIENCY 632 6
INFLATION AND GROWTH 634 7 MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND GROWTH 636 18 |
TRADE LIBERALIZATION, FINANCIAL-SECTOR REFORMS, AND SEQUENCING 639 1
TRADE REFORM 640 1.1 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 642 1.1.1 OUTPUT, TURNOVER
COSTS, AND WAGES 643 1.1.2 CONSUMPTION AND THE MARKET FOR NONTRADED
GOODS 645 1.1.3 GOVERNMENT 646 1.1.4 LABOR MARKET ADJUSTMENT 646 1.2
TARIFFS, REAL WAGES, AND EMPLOYMENT 650 1.2.1 STEADY-STATE EFFECTS 650
1.2.2 SHORT-RUN DYNAMICS 652 2 FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION 655 2.1
DEREGULATION OF INTEREST RATES 656 2.2 BROADER ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL
LIBERALIZATION 658 2.3 ROLE OF REGULATION AND SUPERVISION 659 3
SEQUENCING OF REFORMS 663 3.1 STABILIZATION, FINANCIAL REFORM, AND
CAPITAL ACCOUNT OPENING 663 3.2 CAPITAL AND CURRENT ACCOUNT
LIBERALIZATION 666 3.3 MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION AND TRADE REFORM 668
4 ADJUSTMENT COSTS, CREDIBILITY, AND THE SPEED OF REFORM 671 19 I THE
POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ADJUSTMENT 673 1 POLITICS, ECONOMIC POLICY, AND
ADJUSTMENT 673 1.1 THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF REFORM 674 CONTENTS XVII 1.2
POLITICAL INSTABILITY, INFLATION, AND FISCAL DEFICITS 676 2 CONFLICTS OF
INTEREST AND ECONOMIC REFORMS 677 2.1 THE UNCERTAIN-BENEFITS APPROACH
677 2.2 THE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONFLICT APPROACH 678 3 POLITICAL
STABILIZATION CYCLES 682 3.1 OPPORTUNISTIC MODELS 683 3.1.1 ELECTIONS,
INFLATION, AND UNEMPLOYMENT 683 3.1.2 ELECTIONS AND DEVALUATION CYCLES
686 3.2 MODELS WITH INFORMATIONAL ASYMMETRIES 690 4 THE POLITICAL
ECONOMY OF FISCAL RULES 692 | EPILOGUE 694 | REFERENCES 699 | INDEX OF
NAMES 751 I INDEX OF SUBJECTS 761
ince
it was first published in
1995,
Development Macroeconomics has
remained the definitive textbook on
the macroeconomics of developing countries.
Now, in this fully revised and updated third
edition, Pierre-Richard
Agenor
and Peter
Mon¬
tiéi
cover the latest advances in this rapidly
changing field, making this the most up-to-
date, authoritative, and comprehensive book
available on the macroeconomic issues and
challenges developing nations confront today.
Agénor
and
Montiéi
provide completely new
and expanded coverage of fiscal discipline,
monetary policy regimes, currency and bank¬
ing crises, monetary unions, management of
capital flows, the choice of an exchange-rate
regime, public capital and growth, the political
economy of stabilization and adjustment
—
and much more. They review attempts that
have been made to adapt standard macroeco¬
nomic analysis to conditions in developing
economies, and they use a variety of analytical
models to address the macroeconomic policy
issues that most concern these countries.
Agénor
and
Montiéi
systematically examine
empirical evidence on behavioral assumptions
and on the effects of macroeconomic poli¬
cies in developing nations.They also provide
extensive references to literature in the field.
This new edition of Development Macroeco¬
nomics is the ¡deal introduction for students
and an indispensable resource for researchers.
К
Fully updated and expanded
E
Provides the most comprehensive treat¬
ment of the macroeconomics of developing
nations
E
Features new material on fiscal discipline,
monetary policy regimes, currency and
banking crises
—
and much more
m
Includes extensive references
В
Serves both as a graduate textbook and a
resource for researchers
|
| adam_txt |
CONTENTS J PREFACE TO THE THIRD EDITION XIX INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW I
1 OVERVIEW OF THE BOOK 2 2 SOME METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES 7 1 I SCOPE OF
DEVELOPMENT MACROECONOMICS 10 1 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND 12 2 ECONOMIC
STRUCTURE AND MACROECONOMICS 14 2.1 OPENNESS TO TRADE IN GOODS AND
ASSETS 15 2.2 EXCHANGE-RATE MANAGEMENT 17 2.3 DOMESTIC FINANCIAL MARKETS
17 2.4 THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET 18 2.5 AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND THE LABOR
MARKET 20 2.6 STABILITY OF POLICY REGIMES 22 2.7 MACROECONOMIC
VOLATILITY AND FLUCTUATIONS 23 2.8 INCOME INEQUALITY 27 3 SOME SPECIAL
TOPICS 28 PARTI MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS, MARKET STRUCTURE, AND BEHAVIORAL
FUNCTIONS 2 I AGGREGATE ACCOUNTS, PRODUCTION, AND MARKET STRUCTURE 35 1
A GENERAL ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK 35 1.1 THE NONFINANCIAL PRIVATE SECTOR 36
1.2 THE PUBLIC SECTOR 37 1.2.1 THE NONFINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR 37 1.2.2
THE CENTRAL BANK 38 1.2.3 THE CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR 39 1.3 THE
COMMERCIAL BANKING SYSTEM 40 1.4 AGGREGATE RELATIONSHIPS 40 2 PRODUCTION
STRUCTURE IN AN OPEN ECONOMY 41 2.1 THE MUNDELL-FLEMING MODEL 41 2.2 THE
"DEPENDENT ECONOMY" MODEL 45 2.3 A MODEL WITH THREE GOODS 48 3 THE
STRUCTURE OF LABOR MARKETS 51 3.1 FUNCTIONING OF LABOR MARKETS 52 3.2
OPEN AND DISGUISED UNEMPLOYMENT 54 VIII CONTENTS 3.3 INDEXATION AND WAGE
RIGIDITY 55 3.4 LABOR MARKET SEGMENTATION 56 3 J BEHAVIORAL FUNCTIONS 62
1 CONSUMPTION AND SAVING 62 1.1 CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING 66 1.2 PLANNING
HORIZON AND LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS 67 1.3 LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS AND
ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS 69 1.4 EFFECTS OF INTEREST RATE CHANGES ON SAVINGS 73
1.5 PUBLIC AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION 74 2 PRIVATE INVESTMENT 74 2.1
CONVENTIONAL DETERMINANTS 75 2.2 REFORMULATION OF THEORIES 76 2.2.1
NATURE OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM 76 2.2.2 IMPORTED GOODS 76 2.2.3 DEBT
OVERHANG EFFECTS 77 2.2.4 ROLE OF PUBLIC CAPITAL 77 2.2.5 MACROECONOMIC
INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY 78 2.3 UNCERTAINTY AND IRREVERSIBILITY
EFFECTS 79 3 THE DEMAND FOR MONEY 82 3.1 CONVENTIONAL MODELS 83 3.2
CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AND MONEY DEMAND 85 PART II FINANCIAL POLICIES 4 [
THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET AND FISCAL MANAGEMENT 91 1 THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET
CONSTRAINT 92 2 THE MEASUREMENT OF FISCAL DEFICITS 94 3 CONTINGENT
LIABILITIES 96 4 SEIGNIORAGE AND INFLATIONARY FINANCE 97 4.1 THE OPTIMAL
INFLATION TAX 98 4.2 COLLECTION LAGS AND THE OLIVERA-TANZI EFFECT 100
4.3 COLLECTION COSTS AND TAX SYSTEM EFFICIENCY 105 4.4 FINANCIAL
REPRESSION AND THE INFLATION TAX 106 5 POLICY CONSISTENCY AND SOLVENCY
111 5.1 THE INTERTEMPORAL SOLVENCY CONSTRAINT 112 5.2 FINANCING
CONSTRAINTS AND POLICY CONSISTENCY 114 6 FISCAL RULES AND FISCAL
DISCIPLINE 116 APPENDIX: FISCAL EFFECTS OF PRIVATIZATION 117 5 I
MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY 120 1 RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE 120 2
DEFICITS, INFLATION, AND THE "TIGHT MONEY" PARADOX 122 CONTENTS IX 2.1
THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 123 2.2 CONSTANT PRIMARY DEFICIT 125 2.3
CONSTANT CONVENTIONAL DEFICIT 127 3 DEFICITS, INTEREST RATES, AND
CROWDING OUT 131 3.1 EXPECTATIONS, DEFICITS, AND REAL INTEREST RATES 131
3.2 DEFICITS, INVESTMENT, AND CROWDING OUT 137 4 BUDGET DEFICITS AND THE
CURRENT ACCOUNT 138 5 EXPANSIONARY FISCAL CONTRACTIONS 139 6 FISCAL
ADJUSTMENT AND THE LABOR MARKET 140 6.1 THE MODEL 141 6.1.1 THE FORMAL
ECONOMY 142 6.1.2 THE INFORMAL SECTOR 145 6.1.3 CONSUMPTION AND WEALTH
145 6.1.4 MARKET FOR INFORMAL SECTOR GOODS 146 6.1.5 THE INFORMAL LABOR
MARKET 146 6.1.6 GOVERNMENT 147 6.2 DYNAMIC STRUCTURE 147 6.3
STEADY-STATE SOLUTION 149 6.4 GOVERNMENT SPENDING CUT 152 6 J FINANCIAL
MARKETS AND THE TRANSMISSION PROCESS OF MONETARY POLICY 154 1 FINANCIAL
STRUCTURE AND THE ROLE OF BANKS 154 2 ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND CREDIT
156 2.1 THE STIGLITZ-WEISS MODEL OF CREDIT RATIONING 157 2.2
COSTLY-STATE VERIFICATION MODELS 162 2.2.1 BANK CREDIT AND THE SUPPLY
SIDE 163 2.2.2 THE COST OF FUNDS-CONTRACTUAL INTEREST RATE CURVE 166
2.2.3 INTERMEDIATION COSTS, EMPLOYMENT, AND OUTPUT 169 2.3 NET WORTH AND
BORROWING CONSTRAINTS 170 3 TRANSMISSION PROCESS OF MONETARY POLICY: AN
OVERVIEW 176 3.1 THE PASS-THROUGH OF POLICY RATES TO MARKET RATES 176
3.2 INTEREST RATE EFFECTS 178 3.3 EXCHANGE-RATE EFFECTS 180 3.4 ASSET
PRICES AND BALANCE SHEET EFFECTS 181 3.4.1 NET WORTH AND THE FINANCE
PREMIUM 182 3.4.2 THE FINANCIAL ACCELERATOR 182 3.5 CREDIT AVAILABILITY
EFFECTS 185 3.6 EXPECTATIONS 185 4 DOLLARIZATION 186 4.1 DETERMINANTS OF
DOLLARIZATION 186 4.2 PERSISTENCE OF DOLLARIZATION 187 4.3 DOLLARIZATION
AND MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT 188 CONTENTS 7 | A FRAMEWORK FOR MONETARY
POLICY ANALYSIS 191 1 THE BASIC MODEL: FIXED EXCHANGE RATES 192 1.1
STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL 193 1.1.1 HOUSEHOLD PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION 193
1.1.2 COMMERCIAL BANKS 194 1.1.3 CENTRAL BANK 197 1.1.4 PRICE LEVEL AND
THE REAL SECTOR 198 1.2 MODEL SOLUTION 199 1.3 POLICY AND EXOGENOUS
SHOCKS 203 1.3.1 INCREASE IN THE REFINANCE RATE 203 1.3.2 CENTRAL BANK
AUCTIONS 204 1.3.3 INCREASE IN THE REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO 206 1.3.4
SHIFTS IN THE RISK PREMIUM AND CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT COSTS 207 1.3.5
CHANGES IN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND WORLD INTEREST RATES 208 2 FLEXIBLE
EXCHANGE RATES 209 2.1 MODEL STRUCTURE 209 2.2 SOLUTION 213 2.3 POLICY
AND EXOGENOUS SHOCKS 218 2.3.1 INCREASE IN THE REFINANCE RATE 218 2.3.2
CENTRAL BANK AUCTIONS 219 2.3.3 INCREASE IN THE REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO
220 2.3.4 SHIFTS IN THE RISK PREMIUM AND CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT COSTS 221
2.3.5 CHANGES IN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND WORLD INTEREST RATES 222 3
EXTENSIONS 224 3.1 STERILIZATION 224 3.2 WORKING CAPITAL NEEDS 227 8 |
INFLATION TARGETING AND INTEREST RATE RULES 232 1 BASIC FRAMEWORK:
CLOSED ECONOMY 233 1.1 STRICT INFLATION TARGETING 234 1.2 POLICY
TRADE-OFFS AND FLEXIBLE TARGETING 237 2 INFLATION TARGETING IN AN OPEN
ECONOMY 240 3 COMPARISON WITH OTHER REGIMES 243 3.1 MONETARY TARGETING
243 3.2 EXCHANGE-RATE TARGETING 245 3.3 NOMINAL INCOME TARGETING 247 4
BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR INFLATION TARGETING 253 4.1 CENTRAL BANK
INDEPENDENCE AND CREDIBILITY 253 4.2 ABSENCE OF FISCAL DOMINANCE 254
CONTENTS XI 4.3 ABSENCE OF DE FACTO EXCHANGE-RATE TARGETING 254 4.4
HEALTHY FINANCIAL SYSTEM 255 4.5 TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY 256 5
INTEREST RATE RULES IN PRACTICE 257 6 SOME ANALYTICAL ISSUES 260 6.1
NON-QUADRATIC POLICY PREFERENCES 261 6.2 UNCERTAINTY AND OPTIMAL POLICY
RULES 262 6.3 CONVEX PHILLIPS CURVE 265 9 I CHOOSING AN EXCHANGE-RATE
REGIME I: CREDIBILITY, FLEXIBILITY, AND WELFARE 269 1 BASIC TYPOLOGY 269
2 EVOLUTION OF EXCHANGE-RATE REGIMES 270 3 POLICY TRADE-OFFS AND
CREDIBILITY 272 3.1 TIME INCONSISTENCY AND EXCHANGE-RATE POLICY 273 3.2
CREDIBILITY OF A FIXED EXCHANGE RATE 278 3.3 REPUTATION, SIGNALING, AND
COMMITMENT 278 4 CREDIBILITY VS. FLEXIBILITY: ROLE OF BANDS 281 4.1
RATIONALE FOR BANDS 282 4.2 BANDS AND MONETARY POLICY CREDIBILITY 283
4.3 EXPERIENCE WITH BANDS 285 5 CURRENCY UNIONS 286 5.1 CREDIBILITY
EFFECTS OF MONETARY UNIONS 287 5.2 WELFARE EFFECTS OF OPTIMUM CURRENCY
AREAS 290 5.2.1 THE MODEL 291 5.2.2 EQUILIBRIUM 293 5.2.3 WELFARE
EFFECTS 294 APPENDIX: KRUGMAN'S TARGET ZONE MODEL 297 10 I CHOOSING AN
EXCHANGE-RATE REGIME H: THE ROLE OF SHOCKS, CONTRACTIONARY EFFECTS, AND
MORAL HAZARD 302 1 ROLE OF SHOCKS 302 1.1 MODEL SPECIFICATION 302 1.2
MODEL SOLUTION 305 2 CONTRACTIONARY EFFECTS 309 2.1 EFFECTS ON AGGREGATE
DEMAND 309 2.1.1 CONSUMPTION 310 2.1.2 INVESTMENT 319 2.1.3 NOMINAL
INTEREST RATES 322 2.2 EFFECTS ON AGGREGATE SUPPLY 325 2.2.1 EFFECTS ON
THE NOMINAL WAGE 325 2.2.2 IMPORTED INPUTS 328 2.2.3 EFFECTS THROUGH
WORKING-CAPITAL COSTS 330 2.2.4 EFFECTS THROUGH BALANCE SHEETS 332 XII
CONTENTS 3 MORAL HAZARD PROBLEMS 333 4 AN ASSESSMENT 333 PART III
INFLATION STABILIZATION 11 I AN OVERVIEW OF STABILIZATION PROGRAMS 339 1
POPULISM 340 1.1 CHILE UNDER ALLENDE (1970-1973) 341 1.2 PERU UNDER
GARCIA (1986-1990) 342 2 ORTHODOX MONEY-BASED STABILIZATION 343 2.1
CHILE {SEPTEMBER 1973) 343 2.2 BOLIVIA (AUGUST 29,1985) 345 3
EXCHANGE-RATE-BASED (SOUTHERN CONE) STABILIZATION PROGRAMS 347 3.1 CHILE
(FEBRUARY 1978) 347 3.2 URUGUAY (OCTOBER 1978) 348 3.3 ARGENTINA
(DECEMBER 1978) 350 4 HETERODOX PROGRAMS 351 4.1 ARGENTINA (JUNE
14,1985) 352 4.2 ISRAEL (JULY 1,1985) 355 4.3 BRAZIL (FEBRUARY 28,1986)
360 4.4 MEXICO (DECEMBER 1987) 362 5 ARGENTINA'S CONVERTIBILITY PLAN
(1991-1997) 364 6 BRAZIL'S REAL PLAN (1994-1999) 367 7 LESSONS OF
STABILIZATION 371 12 | INFLATION AND SHORT-RUN DYNAMICS 373 1 MODELS OF
THE INFLATIONARY PROCESS 373 1.1 INFLATION, MONEY, AND FISCAL DEFICITS
374 1.1.1 ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS 376 1.1.2 PERFECT FORESIGHT 377 1.2 FOOD
SUPPLY AND THE WAGE-PRICE CYCLE 380 1.3 A STRUCTURALIST-MONETARIST MODEL
385 2 DYNAMICS OF ALTERNATIVE POLICY RULES 388 2.1 A ONE-GOOD FRAMEWORK
388 2.1.1 HOUSEHOLDS 389 2.1.2 GOVERNMENT AND THE CENTRAL BANK 392 2.1.3
MONEY MARKET EQUILIBRIUM 393 2.1.4 DYNAMIC FORM 393 2.1.5 DEVALUATION
RULE 395 2.1.6 CREDIT GROWTH RULE 398 2.1.7 DYNAMICS WITH ALTERNATIVE
FISCAL POLICY RULES 400 2.2 A THREE-GOOD MODEL WITH FLEXIBLE PRICES 401
CONTENTS XIII 2.2.1 HOUSEHOLDS 401 2.2.2 OUTPUT AND THE LABOR MARKET 404
2.2.3 CENTRAL BANK AND THE GOVERNMENT 404 2.2.4 MARKET-CLEARING
CONDITIONS 404 2.2.5 DYNAMIC FORM 405 2.2.6 POLICY EXPERIMENTS 408 2.3
EXTENSIONS 414 23.1 IMPORTED INTERMEDIATE INPUTS 414 2.3.2 STICKY PRICES
414 APPENDIX: IMPACT AND STEADY-STATE EFFECTS 417 13 | ANALYTICAL ISSUES
IN DISINFLATION PROGRAMS 420 1 TOPICS IN EXCHANGE-RATE-BASED PROGRAMS
420 1.1 THE BOOM-RECESSION CYCLE 421 1.1.1 EXPECTATIONS, REAL INTEREST
RATES, AND OUTPUT 421 1.1.2 THE "TEMPORARINESS" HYPOTHESIS 426 1.1.3 AN
ASSESSMENT 434 1.2 THE BEHAVIOR OF REAL INTEREST RATES 440 1.2.1
CREDIBILITY, NOMINAL ANCHORS, AND INTEREST RATES 440 1.2.2 EXPECTATIONS,
FISCAL ADJUSTMENT, AND INTEREST RATES 441 1.3 DISINFLATION AND REAL
WAGES 443 2 ROLE OF CREDIBILITY IN DISINFLATION PROGRAMS 451 2.1 SOURCES
OF CREDIBILITY PROBLEMS 452 2.1.1 INTERNAL INCONSISTENCY 452 2.1.2 TIME
INCONSISTENCY 453 2.1.3 ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION 455 2.1.4 POLICY
UNCERTAINTY AND STOCHASTIC SHOCKS 455 2.1.5 POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY 456
2.2 ENHANCING THE CREDIBILITY OF DISINFLATION PROGRAMS 457 2.2.1
SIGNALING AND SUSTAINABILITY 457 2.2.2 PRICE CONTROLS 459 2.2.3 CENTRAL
BANK INDEPENDENCE 466 2.2.4 EXTERNAL ENFORCEMENT AND FOREIGN ASSISTANCE
468 2.2.5 SEQUENCING AND POLITICAL SUPPORT 470 2.3 POLICY LESSONS 472 3
DISINFLATION AND NOMINAL ANCHORS 474 APPENDIX: OUTPUT EFFECTS OF PRICE
CONTROLS 477 PART IV CAPITAL FLOWS AND FINANCIAL CRISES 14 I FINANCIAL
INTEGRATION, CAPITAL INFLOWS, AND SUDDEN STOPS 483 1 BENEFITS AND COSTS
OF FINANCIAL INTEGRATION 484 1.1 POTENTIAL BENEFITS 484 XIV CONTENTS
1.1.1 CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING 484 1.1.2 DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND GROWTH 485
1.1.3 ENHANCED MACROECONOMIC DISCIPLINE 488 1.1.4 BANKING SYSTEM
EFFICIENCY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY 488 1.2 POTENTIAL COSTS 489 1.2.1
CONCENTRATION OF CAPITAL FLOWS AND LACK OF ACCESS 489 1.2.2 DOMESTIC
MISALLOCATION OF CAPITAL FLOWS 489 1.2.3 LOSS OF MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
490 1.2.4 PROCYCLICALITY OF SHORT-TERM FLOWS 491 1.2.5 HERDING,
CONTAGION, AND VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL FLOWS 491 1.2.6 RISK OF ENTRY BY
FOREIGN BANKS 493 1.3 ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE 494 2 DETERMINANTS OF
CAPITAL INFLOWS 498 2.T "PULL" FACTORS 499 2.2 "PUSH" FACTORS 500 2.3
ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE 504 3 MANAGING CAPITAL INFLOWS: POLICY OPTIONS
506 3.1 RESTRICTIONS ON GROSS INFLOWS 507 3.2 ENCOURAGEMENT OF GROSS
OUTFLOWS 508 3.3 TRADE LIBERALIZATION 509 3.4 EXCHANGE-RATE FLEXIBILITY
510 3.5 STERILIZATION 511 3.6 POLICIES TO INFLUENCE THE MONEY MULTIPLIER
512 3.7 FISCAL CONTRACTION 513 4 SUDDEN STOPS 513 4.1 ALTERNATIVE MODELS
515 4.1.1 MODELS WITH MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA 515 4.1.2 A SUDDEN STOP AS A
UNIQUE EQUILIBRIUM 517 4.2 THE ROLE OF RESERVES AND POLICY RESPONSES 520
APPENDIX: MEASURING THE DEGREE OF FINANCIAL INTEGRATION 521 15 I
EXCHANGE-RATE CRISES 525 1 CURRENCY CRISES: CONVENTIONAL APPROACH 526
1.1 THE BASIC MODEL 526 1.2 EXTENSIONS TO THE BASIC FRAMEWORK 532 1.2.1
STERILIZATION 532 1.2.2 ALTERNATIVE POST-COLLAPSE REGIMES 533 1.2.3 REAL
EFFECTS OF AN ANTICIPATED COLLAPSE 534 1.2.4 BORROWING, CAPITAL
CONTROLS, AND CRISIS POSTPONEMENT 536 1.2.5 INTEREST RATE DEFENSE 538
1.2.6 OTHER DIRECTIONS 539 2 POLICY TRADE-OFFS AND SELF-FUIFILLING
CRISES 541 2.1 EXAMPLE BASED ON OUTPUT-INFLATION TRADE-OFFS 541 CONTENTS
XV 2.2 PUBLIC DEBT AND SELF-FULFILLING CRISES 544 2.3 ROLE OF
CREDIBILITY AND REPUTATION 545 2.4 OTHER SOURCES OF POLICY TRADE-OFFS
547 3 A "CROSS-GENERATION" FRAMEWORK 548 4 THIRD-GENERATION MODELS 549 5
EVIDENCE ON EXCHANGE-RATE CRISES 551 5.1 THE MEXICAN PESO CRISIS
(DECEMBER 1994) 551 5.1.1 BACKGROUND: STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND THE
SOLIDARITY PACT 552 5.1.2 POLICY RESPONSES TO CAPITAL INFLOWS, 1989-1993
553 5.1.3 THE BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CRISIS 554 5.2 THE THAI BAHT CRISIS
(JULY 1997) 559 5.2.1 BACKGROUND 560 5.2.2 TRIGGERING EVENTS 561 5.2.3
EMERGENCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE CRISIS 562 5.3 BRAZIL'S REAL CRISIS
(JANUARY 1999) 567 5.4 ARGENTINA'S PESO CRISIS (JANUARY 2002) 569 5.4.1
BACKGROUND 569 5.4.2 THE BUILDUP OF VULNERABILITY 571 5.4.3 A "PERFECT
STORM" IN 1998-2001 573 5.4.4 THE CRISIS 574 APPENDIX: CREDIBILITY,
REPUTATION, AND CURRENCY CRISES 576 16 | BANKING CRISES AND TWIN CRISES
579 1 BANKS AS MATURITY TRANSFORMERS 581 1.1 THE DIAMOND-DYBVIG
FRAMEWORK 581 1.2 BUSINESS CYCLES AND BANKING CRISES 584 2 TWIN CRISES
585 2.1 A BASIC MODEL WITH CLOSE LINKAGES 586 2.2 THE CHANG-VELASCO
FRAMEWORK 589 2.3 THE FLOOD-MARION JOINT DISTRIBUTION APPROACH 592 3
ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND OPPORTUNISM 592 4 DETERMINANTS OF BANKING
CRISES: EVIDENCE 594 4.1 EPISODIC CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE 595 4.2
SIGNALING APPROACH 596 4.3 ECONOMETRIC INVESTIGATIONS 597 PARTV GROWTH,
STRUCTURAL REFORMS, AND POLITICAL ECONOMY 17 I MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
AND GROWTH 603 1 THE NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL 604 2 EXTERNALITIES AND
INCREASING RETURNS 608 3 HUMAN CAPITAL, KNOWLEDGE, AND GROWTH 610 XVI
CONTENTS 3.1 THE PRODUCTION OF HUMAN CAPITAL. 6IO 3.2 THE PRODUCTION OF
KNOWLEDGE 611 4 GOVERNMENT SPENDING, TAXES, AND GROWTH 615 4.1 THE BARRO
MODEL 618 4.2 INFRASTRUCTURE, HEALTH, AND GROWTH 620 4.2.1 PRODUCTION
620 4.2.2 HOUSEHOLD PREFERENCES 620 4.2.3 PRODUCTION OF HEALTH SERVICES
621 4.2.4 GOVERNMENT 621 4.3 THE DECENTRALIZED EQUILIBRIUM 622 4.4
OPTIMAL POLICIES 624 4.5 A STOCK APPROACH 627 5 FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
AND GROWTH 630 5.1 EFFECTS ON THE SAVING RATE 631 5.2 EFFECTS ON THE
ALLOCATION OF CAPITAL 631 5.3 INTERMEDIATION COSTS AND EFFICIENCY 632 6
INFLATION AND GROWTH 634 7 MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND GROWTH 636 18 |
TRADE LIBERALIZATION, FINANCIAL-SECTOR REFORMS, AND SEQUENCING 639 1
TRADE REFORM 640 1.1 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 642 1.1.1 OUTPUT, TURNOVER
COSTS, AND WAGES 643 1.1.2 CONSUMPTION AND THE MARKET FOR NONTRADED
GOODS 645 1.1.3 GOVERNMENT 646 1.1.4 LABOR MARKET ADJUSTMENT 646 1.2
TARIFFS, REAL WAGES, AND EMPLOYMENT 650 1.2.1 STEADY-STATE EFFECTS 650
1.2.2 SHORT-RUN DYNAMICS 652 2 FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION 655 2.1
DEREGULATION OF INTEREST RATES 656 2.2 BROADER ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL
LIBERALIZATION 658 2.3 ROLE OF REGULATION AND SUPERVISION 659 3
SEQUENCING OF REFORMS 663 3.1 STABILIZATION, FINANCIAL REFORM, AND
CAPITAL ACCOUNT OPENING 663 3.2 CAPITAL AND CURRENT ACCOUNT
LIBERALIZATION 666 3.3 MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION AND TRADE REFORM 668
4 ADJUSTMENT COSTS, CREDIBILITY, AND THE SPEED OF REFORM 671 19 I THE
POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ADJUSTMENT 673 1 POLITICS, ECONOMIC POLICY, AND
ADJUSTMENT 673 1.1 THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF REFORM 674 CONTENTS XVII 1.2
POLITICAL INSTABILITY, INFLATION, AND FISCAL DEFICITS 676 2 CONFLICTS OF
INTEREST AND ECONOMIC REFORMS 677 2.1 THE UNCERTAIN-BENEFITS APPROACH
677 2.2 THE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONFLICT APPROACH 678 3 POLITICAL
STABILIZATION CYCLES 682 3.1 OPPORTUNISTIC MODELS 683 3.1.1 ELECTIONS,
INFLATION, AND UNEMPLOYMENT 683 3.1.2 ELECTIONS AND DEVALUATION CYCLES
686 3.2 MODELS WITH INFORMATIONAL ASYMMETRIES 690 4 THE POLITICAL
ECONOMY OF FISCAL RULES 692 | EPILOGUE 694 | REFERENCES 699 | INDEX OF
NAMES 751 I INDEX OF SUBJECTS 761
ince
it was first published in
1995,
Development Macroeconomics has
remained the definitive textbook on
the macroeconomics of developing countries.
Now, in this fully revised and updated third
edition, Pierre-Richard
Agenor
and Peter
Mon¬
tiéi
cover the latest advances in this rapidly
changing field, making this the most up-to-
date, authoritative, and comprehensive book
available on the macroeconomic issues and
challenges developing nations confront today.
Agénor
and
Montiéi
provide completely new
and expanded coverage of fiscal discipline,
monetary policy regimes, currency and bank¬
ing crises, monetary unions, management of
capital flows, the choice of an exchange-rate
regime, public capital and growth, the political
economy of stabilization and adjustment
—
and much more. They review attempts that
have been made to adapt standard macroeco¬
nomic analysis to conditions in developing
economies, and they use a variety of analytical
models to address the macroeconomic policy
issues that most concern these countries.
Agénor
and
Montiéi
systematically examine
empirical evidence on behavioral assumptions
and on the effects of macroeconomic poli¬
cies in developing nations.They also provide
extensive references to literature in the field.
This new edition of Development Macroeco¬
nomics is the ¡deal introduction for students
and an indispensable resource for researchers.
К
Fully updated and expanded
E
Provides the most comprehensive treat¬
ment of the macroeconomics of developing
nations
E
Features new material on fiscal discipline,
monetary policy regimes, currency and
banking crises
—
and much more
m
Includes extensive references
В
Serves both as a graduate textbook and a
resource for researchers |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Agénor, Pierre-Richard 1957- Montiel, Peter 1951- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)12408009X (DE-588)122247183 |
| author_facet | Agénor, Pierre-Richard 1957- Montiel, Peter 1951- |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Agénor, Pierre-Richard 1957- |
| author_variant | p r a pra p m pm |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV035056424 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HC59 |
| callnumber-raw | HC59.7 |
| callnumber-search | HC59.7 |
| callnumber-sort | HC 259.7 |
| callnumber-subject | HC - Economic History and Conditions |
| classification_rvk | QC 300 QC 340 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)173809138 (DE-599)GBV54635971X |
| dewey-full | 330.9172/4 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
| dewey-raw | 330.9172/4 |
| dewey-search | 330.9172/4 |
| dewey-sort | 3330.9172 14 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 3. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | Developing countries Economic conditions Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Developing countries Economic conditions Entwicklungsländer |
| id | DE-604.BV035056424 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T21:58:43Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:21:12Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780691130903 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016725010 |
| oclc_num | 173809138 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-703 DE-521 DE-M382 DE-11 DE-188 DE-29 DE-739 DE-523 |
| owner_facet | DE-703 DE-521 DE-M382 DE-11 DE-188 DE-29 DE-739 DE-523 |
| physical | XX, 787 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publishDateSearch | 2008 |
| publishDateSort | 2008 |
| publisher | Princeton Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Agénor, Pierre-Richard 1957- Verfasser (DE-588)12408009X aut Development macroeconomics Pierre-Richard Agénor and Peter J. Montiel 3. ed. Princeton, NJ [u.a.] Princeton Univ. Press 2008 XX, 787 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references (p. 699-750) and index Entwicklungsländer Wirtschaft Development economics Macroeconomics Entwicklungspolitik (DE-588)4014957-2 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungsökonomie (DE-588)4213090-6 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungstheorie (DE-588)4121207-1 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Developing countries Economic conditions Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungstheorie (DE-588)4121207-1 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Entwicklungspolitik (DE-588)4014957-2 s Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 g Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 s Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 s DE-188 Entwicklungsökonomie (DE-588)4213090-6 s Montiel, Peter 1951- Verfasser (DE-588)122247183 aut SWB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016725010&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Passau application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016725010&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext |
| spellingShingle | Agénor, Pierre-Richard 1957- Montiel, Peter 1951- Development macroeconomics Entwicklungsländer Wirtschaft Development economics Macroeconomics Entwicklungspolitik (DE-588)4014957-2 gnd Entwicklungsökonomie (DE-588)4213090-6 gnd Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd Entwicklungstheorie (DE-588)4121207-1 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4014957-2 (DE-588)4213090-6 (DE-588)4066493-4 (DE-588)4037174-8 (DE-588)4121207-1 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4014954-7 |
| title | Development macroeconomics |
| title_auth | Development macroeconomics |
| title_exact_search | Development macroeconomics |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Development macroeconomics |
| title_full | Development macroeconomics Pierre-Richard Agénor and Peter J. Montiel |
| title_fullStr | Development macroeconomics Pierre-Richard Agénor and Peter J. Montiel |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development macroeconomics Pierre-Richard Agénor and Peter J. Montiel |
| title_short | Development macroeconomics |
| title_sort | development macroeconomics |
| topic | Entwicklungsländer Wirtschaft Development economics Macroeconomics Entwicklungspolitik (DE-588)4014957-2 gnd Entwicklungsökonomie (DE-588)4213090-6 gnd Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd Entwicklungstheorie (DE-588)4121207-1 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entwicklungsländer Wirtschaft Development economics Macroeconomics Entwicklungspolitik Entwicklungsökonomie Wirtschaftspolitik Makroökonomie Entwicklungstheorie Mathematisches Modell Wirtschaftsentwicklung Developing countries Economic conditions |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016725010&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016725010&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT agenorpierrerichard developmentmacroeconomics AT montielpeter developmentmacroeconomics |