Heuristics and biases: the psychology of intuitive judgment
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2008
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ., repr. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVI, 857 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780521792608 9780521796798 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804137996861046785 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Contributors page
xi
Preface
xv
Introduction
-
Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now
1
Thomas Gilovich and Dale Griffin
PART ONE. THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL EXTENSIONS
A. Representativeness and Availability
1
Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction
Fallacy in Probability Judgment
19
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
2
Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution
in Intuitive Judgment
49
Daniel Kahneman and Shane Frederick
3
How Alike Is It? versus How Likely Is It?: A Disjunction
Fallacy in Probability Judgments
82
Maya Bar-Hillel and Efrat
Neter
4
Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived
Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating
Effect of Ease of Imagery
98
Steven
}.
Sherman, Robert B. Cialdini, Donna F. Schwartzman,
and Kim D. Reynolds
5
The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall
and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources
of Information
103
Norbert Schwarz
and Leigh Ann Vaughn
B. Anchoring, Contamination, and Compatibility
6
Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments
of Belief and Value
120
Gretchen
В.
Chapman and Eric
}.
Johnson
vu
viii Contents
7
Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and
Adjustment Heuristic
139
Nicholas Epley and Thomas Gilovich
8
Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language
Users Do Not Do What They Should
150
Boaz Keysar and Dale J.
Barr
9
Inferential Correction
167
Daniel T. Gilbert
10
Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem
185
Timothy D. Wilson, David B.
Centerbar,
and Nancy Brekke
11
Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion
and Similarity Heuristics
201
Paul
Rozin
and Carol Nemeroff
12
Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice
217
Paul Slovic, Dale Griffin, and Amos Tversky
C
.
Forecasting, Confidence, and Calibration
13
The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants
of Confidence
230
Dale Griffin and Amos Tversky
14
Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences
of Optimistic Time Predictions
250
Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin, and Michael Ross
15
Probability Judgment across Cultures
271
J. Frank
Yates,
Ju-Whei Lee, Winston R. Sieck, Incheol Choi,
and Paul C. Price
16
Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting
292
Daniel T. Gilbert, Elizabeth C. Pinel, Timothy D. Wilson,
Stephen
}. Blumberg,
and Thalia P. Wheatley
D. Optimism
17
Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions
to Debiasing Interventions
313
Neil D.
Weinstein
and William M. Klein
18
Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of
Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving
Assessments of Ability
324
David Dunning, Judith A. Meyerowitz, and Amy D.
Holzberg
19
When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma
of Unrealistic Optimism
334
David A. Armor and Shelley E. Taylor
Contents ix
E.
Norms and Counterfactuals
20
Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives
348
Daniel Kahneman and Dale T. Miller
21
Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition:
How to Avoid Kicking Yourself
367
Dale T. Miller and Brian R. Taylor
PART TWO. NEW THEORETICAL DIRECTIONS
A. Two Systems of Reasoning
22
Two Systems of Reasoning
379
Steven A. Sloman
23
The Affect Heuristic
397
Paul Slovic, Melissa Finucane, Ellen Peters, and Donald G. MacGregor
24
Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications
for the Rationality Debate?
421
Keith E. Stanovich and Richard F. West
B. Support Theory
25
Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation
of Subjective Probability
441
Amos Tversky and Derek
}.
Koehler
26
Unpacking, Repacking, and Anchoring: Advances
in Support Theory
474
Yuval
Rottenstreich
and Amos Tversky
27
Remarks on Support Theory: Recent Advances
and Future Directions
489
Lyle A. Brenner, Derek J. Koehler, and Yuval
Rottenstreich
C.
Alternative Perspectives on Heuristics
28
The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday
Inductive Reasoning
510
Richard E. Nisbett, David H. Krantz, Christopher Jepson,
and Ziva Kunda
29
Feelings as Information: Moods Influence Judgments
and Processing Strategies
534
Norbert Schwarz
30
Automated Choice Heuristics
548
Shane Frederick
31
How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics?
559
Gerd
Gigerenzer, Jean Czerlinski, and Laura Martignon
χ
Contents
32 Intuitive
Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors:
Exploring the Empirical Implications of Deviant
Functionalist Metaphors
582
Philip E. Tetlock
PART THREE. REAL-WORLD APPLICATIONS
A. Everyday Judgment and Behavior
33
The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception
of Random Sequences
601
Thomas Gilovich, Robert
Vallone,
and Amos Tversky
34
Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness
in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific Beliefs
617
Thomas Gilovich and Kenneth Savitsky
35
When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction
among Olympic Medalists
625
Victoria Husted Medvec, Scott F. Madey, and Thomas Gilovich
36
Understanding Misunderstanding: Social
Psychological Perspectives
636
Emily Pronin, Carolyn Puccio, and Lee Ross
B. Expert Judgment
37
Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants
666
Max Henrion and Baruch
Fischhoff
38
Do Analysts Overreact?
678
Werner
F. M. De Bondi
and Richard H. Thaler
39
The Calibration of Expert Judgment: Heuristics
and Biases Beyond the Laboratory
686
Derek
}.
Koehler, Lyle Brenner, and Dale Griffin
40
Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment
716
Robyn M. Dawes, David Faust, and Paul E, Meehl
41
Heuristics and Biases in Application
730
Baruch
Fischhoff
42
Theory-Driven Reasoning about Plausible Pasts
and Probable Futures in World Politics
749
Philip E.
Tetlock
References
763
Index
855
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
List of Contributors page
xi
Preface
xv
Introduction
-
Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now
1
Thomas Gilovich and Dale Griffin
PART ONE. THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL EXTENSIONS
A. Representativeness and Availability
1
Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction
Fallacy in Probability Judgment
19
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
2
Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution
in Intuitive Judgment
49
Daniel Kahneman and Shane Frederick
3
How Alike Is It? versus How Likely Is It?: A Disjunction
Fallacy in Probability Judgments
82
Maya Bar-Hillel and Efrat
Neter
4
Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived
Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating
Effect of Ease of Imagery
98
Steven
}.
Sherman, Robert B. Cialdini, Donna F. Schwartzman,
and Kim D. Reynolds
5
The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall
and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources
of Information
103
Norbert Schwarz
and Leigh Ann Vaughn
B. Anchoring, Contamination, and Compatibility
6
Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments
of Belief and Value
120
Gretchen
В.
Chapman and Eric
}.
Johnson
vu
viii Contents
7
Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and
Adjustment Heuristic
139
Nicholas Epley and Thomas Gilovich
8
Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language
Users Do Not Do What They "Should"
150
Boaz Keysar and Dale J.
Barr
9
Inferential Correction
167
Daniel T. Gilbert
10
Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem
185
Timothy D. Wilson, David B.
Centerbar,
and Nancy Brekke
11
Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion
and Similarity "Heuristics"
201
Paul
Rozin
and Carol Nemeroff
12
Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice
217
Paul Slovic, Dale Griffin, and Amos Tversky
C
.
Forecasting, Confidence, and Calibration
13
The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants
of Confidence
230
Dale Griffin and Amos Tversky
14
Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences
of Optimistic Time Predictions
250
Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin, and Michael Ross
15
Probability Judgment across Cultures
271
J. Frank
Yates,
Ju-Whei Lee, Winston R. Sieck, Incheol Choi,
and Paul C. Price
16
Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting
292
Daniel T. Gilbert, Elizabeth C. Pinel, Timothy D. Wilson,
Stephen
}. Blumberg,
and Thalia P. Wheatley
D. Optimism
17
Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions
to Debiasing Interventions
313
Neil D.
Weinstein
and William M. Klein
18
Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of
Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving
Assessments of Ability
324
David Dunning, Judith A. Meyerowitz, and Amy D.
Holzberg
19
When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma
of Unrealistic Optimism
334
David A. Armor and Shelley E. Taylor
Contents ix
E.
Norms and Counterfactuals
20
Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives
348
Daniel Kahneman and Dale T. Miller
21
Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition:
How to Avoid Kicking Yourself
367
Dale T. Miller and Brian R. Taylor
PART TWO. NEW THEORETICAL DIRECTIONS
A. Two Systems of Reasoning
22
Two Systems of Reasoning
379
Steven A. Sloman
23
The Affect Heuristic
397
Paul Slovic, Melissa Finucane, Ellen Peters, and Donald G. MacGregor
24
Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications
for the Rationality Debate?
421
Keith E. Stanovich and Richard F. West
B. Support Theory
25
Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation
of Subjective Probability
441
Amos Tversky and Derek
}.
Koehler
26
Unpacking, Repacking, and Anchoring: Advances
in Support Theory
474
Yuval
Rottenstreich
and Amos Tversky
27
Remarks on Support Theory: Recent Advances
and Future Directions
489
Lyle A. Brenner, Derek J. Koehler, and Yuval
Rottenstreich
C.
Alternative Perspectives on Heuristics
28
The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday
Inductive Reasoning
510
Richard E. Nisbett, David H. Krantz, Christopher Jepson,
and Ziva Kunda
29
Feelings as Information: Moods Influence Judgments
and Processing Strategies
534
Norbert Schwarz
30
Automated Choice Heuristics
548
Shane Frederick
31
How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics?
559
Gerd
Gigerenzer, Jean Czerlinski, and Laura Martignon
χ
Contents
32 Intuitive
Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors:
Exploring the Empirical Implications of Deviant
Functionalist Metaphors
582
Philip E. Tetlock
PART THREE. REAL-WORLD APPLICATIONS
A. Everyday Judgment and Behavior
33
The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception
of Random Sequences
601
Thomas Gilovich, Robert
Vallone,
and Amos Tversky
34
Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness
in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific Beliefs
617
Thomas Gilovich and Kenneth Savitsky
35
When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction
among Olympic Medalists
625
Victoria Husted Medvec, Scott F. Madey, and Thomas Gilovich
36
Understanding Misunderstanding: Social
Psychological Perspectives
636
Emily Pronin, Carolyn Puccio, and Lee Ross
B. Expert Judgment
37
Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants
666
Max Henrion and Baruch
Fischhoff
38
Do Analysts Overreact?
678
Werner
F. M. De Bondi
and Richard H. Thaler
39
The Calibration of Expert Judgment: Heuristics
and Biases Beyond the Laboratory
686
Derek
}.
Koehler, Lyle Brenner, and Dale Griffin
40
Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment
716
Robyn M. Dawes, David Faust, and Paul E, Meehl
41
Heuristics and Biases in Application
730
Baruch
Fischhoff
42
Theory-Driven Reasoning about Plausible Pasts
and Probable Futures in World Politics
749
Philip E.
Tetlock
References
763
Index
855 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author_GND | (DE-588)133031276 |
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| bvnumber | BV035055128 |
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| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)316059575 (DE-599)BVBBV035055128 |
| dewey-full | 153.4 |
| dewey-hundreds | 100 - Philosophy & psychology |
| dewey-ones | 153 - Conscious mental processes & intelligence |
| dewey-raw | 153.4 |
| dewey-search | 153.4 |
| dewey-sort | 3153.4 |
| dewey-tens | 150 - Psychology |
| discipline | Psychologie Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Psychologie Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. publ., repr. |
| format | Book |
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| genre | (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Aufsatzsammlung |
| id | DE-604.BV035055128 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T21:58:12Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:21:10Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780521792608 9780521796798 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016723728 |
| oclc_num | 316059575 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-N2 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG |
| owner_facet | DE-N2 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG |
| physical | XVI, 857 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publishDateSearch | 2008 |
| publishDateSort | 2008 |
| publisher | Cambridge Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment ed. by Thomas Gilovich ... 1. publ., repr. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2008 XVI, 857 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Bias stw Denken - Psychologie Entscheidungsfindung - Heuristik - Aufsatzsammlung Entscheidungstheorie stw Heuristisches Verfahren stw Intuition - Psychologie - Urteilen Theorie stw Wirtschaftspsychologie stw Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 gnd rswk-swf Denken (DE-588)4011450-8 gnd rswk-swf Intuition (DE-588)4027532-2 gnd rswk-swf Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 gnd rswk-swf Einrichtung (DE-588)4113393-6 gnd rswk-swf Heuristik (DE-588)4024772-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Denken (DE-588)4011450-8 s Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 s DE-604 Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 s Intuition (DE-588)4027532-2 s Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s Einrichtung (DE-588)4113393-6 s Heuristik (DE-588)4024772-7 s 1\p DE-604 Gilovich, Thomas 1954- Sonstige (DE-588)133031276 oth Digitalisierung UB Bamberg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016723728&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment Bias stw Denken - Psychologie Entscheidungsfindung - Heuristik - Aufsatzsammlung Entscheidungstheorie stw Heuristisches Verfahren stw Intuition - Psychologie - Urteilen Theorie stw Wirtschaftspsychologie stw Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 gnd Denken (DE-588)4011450-8 gnd Intuition (DE-588)4027532-2 gnd Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 gnd Einrichtung (DE-588)4113393-6 gnd Heuristik (DE-588)4024772-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4113446-1 (DE-588)4078671-7 (DE-588)4011450-8 (DE-588)4027532-2 (DE-588)4047704-6 (DE-588)4113393-6 (DE-588)4024772-7 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment |
| title_auth | Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment |
| title_exact_search | Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment |
| title_full | Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment ed. by Thomas Gilovich ... |
| title_fullStr | Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment ed. by Thomas Gilovich ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment ed. by Thomas Gilovich ... |
| title_short | Heuristics and biases |
| title_sort | heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment |
| title_sub | the psychology of intuitive judgment |
| topic | Bias stw Denken - Psychologie Entscheidungsfindung - Heuristik - Aufsatzsammlung Entscheidungstheorie stw Heuristisches Verfahren stw Intuition - Psychologie - Urteilen Theorie stw Wirtschaftspsychologie stw Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 gnd Denken (DE-588)4011450-8 gnd Intuition (DE-588)4027532-2 gnd Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 gnd Einrichtung (DE-588)4113393-6 gnd Heuristik (DE-588)4024772-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bias Denken - Psychologie Entscheidungsfindung - Heuristik - Aufsatzsammlung Entscheidungstheorie Heuristisches Verfahren Intuition - Psychologie - Urteilen Theorie Wirtschaftspsychologie Entscheidungsfindung Urteilen Denken Intuition Psychologie Einrichtung Heuristik Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016723728&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gilovichthomas heuristicsandbiasesthepsychologyofintuitivejudgment |