Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints:

This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetri...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Agénor, Pierre-Richard 1957- (VerfasserIn), Aizenman, Joshua 1949- (VerfasserIn)
Format: Buch
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2000
Schriftenreihe:NBER working paper series 7743
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Zusammenfassung:This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade in contrast to what conventional consumption-smoothing models would predict. The second part tests for the existence of asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results, based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980-96, indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) tend indeed be associated with higher rates of private savings.
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