Rational choice in an uncertain world: the psychology of judgment and decision making
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Los Angeles [u.a.]
SAGE
2010
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke |
| Beschreibung: | XII, 374 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9781412959032 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Rational choice in an uncertain world |b the psychology of judgment and decision making |c Reid Hastie ; Robyn M. Dawes |
| 250 | |a 2. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Los Angeles [u.a.] |b SAGE |c 2010 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804137930451582977 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface
їх
1.
Thinking and Deciding
1
1.1
Decision Making Is a Skill
1
1.2
Thinking: Automatic and Controlled
3
1.3
The Computational Model of the Mind
6
1.4
Through Darkest Psychoanalytic Theory
and Behaviorism to Cognition
11
1.5
Quality of Choice: Rationality
16
1.6
The Invention of Modern Decision Theory
18
References
21
2.
What Is Decision Making?
23
2.1
Definition of a Decision
23
2.2
Picturing Decisions
26
2.3
Decision Quality, Revisited
30
2.4
Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example
32
2.5
Over-Inclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs
34
2.6
The Rationality of Considering Only the Future
40
2.7
The Rest of This Book
42
References
43
3.
A General Framework for Judgment
45
3.1
A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction
45
3.2
Research With the Lens Model Framework
50
3.3
Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models
53
3.4
How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment?
56
3.5
Practical Implications of the Surprising
Success of the Linear Model
60
3.6
Objections
and Rebuttals
62
3.7
The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions
67
References 68
4.
The Fundamental Judgment Strategy:
Anchoring and Adjustment
71
4.1
Salient Values
71
4.2
Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment
73
4.3
Anchoring on Ourselves
80
4.4
Anchoring the Past in the Present
83
References
85
5.
Judging Heuristically
87
5.1
Going Beyond the Information Given
87
5.2
Estimating Frequencies and Probabilities
88
5.3
Availability of Memories
89
5.4
Biased Samples in Memory
92
5.5
Biased Sampling From Memory
94
5.6
Availability to the Imagination
97
5.7
From Availability to Probability and Causality
98
5.8
Judgment by Similarity: Same Old Things
101
5.9
Representative Thinking
105
5.10
The Ratio Rule
108
References
115
6.
Explanation-Based Judgments
117
6.1
Everyone Likes a Good Story
117
6.2
The Conjunction Probability Error (Again)
118
6.3
Judging From Explanations
120
6.4
Legal Scenarios: The Best Story Wins in the Courtroom
123
6.5
Scenarios About Ourselves
128
6.6
Scenarios About the Unthinkable
130
6.7
Hindsight: Reconstructing the Past
133
6.8
Sometimes It s Better to Forget
137
References
137
7.
Chance and Cause
139
7.1
Misconceptions About Chance
139
7.2
Illusions of Control
141
7.3
Seeing Causal Structure Where It Isn t
143
7.4
Regression Toward the Mean
150
7.5
Reflections on Our Inability to Accept Randomness
155
References
155
8.
Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty
157
8.1
What to Do About the Biases
157
8.2
Getting Started Thinking in Terms of Probabilities
159
8.3
Comprehending the Situation Being Judged
163
8.4
Testing for Rationality
168
8.5
How to Think About Inverse Probabilities
170
8.6
Avoiding Subadditivity and Conjunction Errors
174
8.7
The Other Side of the Coin:
The Probability of a Disjunction of Events
177
8.8
Changing Our Minds: Bayes s Theorem
178
8.9
Statistical Decision Theory
184
8.10
Concluding Comment on Rationality
188
References
190
9.
Evaluating Consequences: Fundamental Preferences
193
9.1
What Good Is Happiness?
193
9.2
The Role of Emotions in Evaluations
198
9.3
The Value of Money
201
9.4
Decision Utility—Predicting What We Will Value
209
9.5
Constructing Values
213
References
215
10.
From Preferences to Choices
217
10.1
Deliberate Choices Among Complex Alternatives
217
10.2
Ordering Alternatives
223
10.3
Grouping Alternatives
229
10.4
Choosing Unconsciously
230
10.5
How to Make Good Choices
233
References
234
11.
A Rational Decision Theory
237
11.1
Formally Defining Rationality
237
11.2
Making Theories
Understandable
—
The Axiomatic Method
241
11.3
Defining Rationality: Expected Utility Theory
244
11.4
Traditional Objections to the Axioms
259
11.5
The Shoulds and
Dos
of the System
263
11.6
Some Bum Raps for Decision Analysis
268
References
270
12.
A Descriptive Decision Theory
271
12.1
Non-expected Utility Theories
271
12.2
Gain-Loss Framing Effects
281
12.3
Loss Aversion
288
12.4
Look to the Future
291
References
292
13.
What s Next? New Directions in
Research on Judgment and Decision Making
295
13.1
The
Neuroscience
of Decisions
296
13.2
Emotions in Decision Making
304
13.3
The Rise of Experimental Methods to
Study Dynamic Decisions
310
13.4
Do We Really Know Where We re Headed?
315
References
315
14.
In Praise of Uncertainty
319
14.1
Uncertainty as Negative
319
14.2
The Illusion of Hedonic Certainty
325
14.3
The Price of Denying Uncertainty
326
14.4
Two Cheers for Uncertainty
331
14.5
Living With Uncertainty
333
References
334
Appendix: Basic Principles of Probability Theory
337
Index
361
About the Authors
373
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Preface
їх
1.
Thinking and Deciding
1
1.1
Decision Making Is a Skill
1
1.2
Thinking: Automatic and Controlled
3
1.3
The Computational Model of the Mind
6
1.4
Through Darkest Psychoanalytic Theory
and Behaviorism to Cognition
11
1.5
Quality of Choice: Rationality
16
1.6
The Invention of Modern Decision Theory
18
References
21
2.
What Is Decision Making?
23
2.1
Definition of a Decision
23
2.2
Picturing Decisions
26
2.3
Decision Quality, Revisited
30
2.4
Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example
32
2.5
Over-Inclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs
34
2.6
The Rationality of Considering Only the Future
40
2.7
The Rest of This Book
42
References
43
3.
A General Framework for Judgment
45
3.1
A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction
45
3.2
Research With the Lens Model Framework
50
3.3
Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models
53
3.4
How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment?
56
3.5
Practical Implications of the Surprising
Success of the Linear Model
60
3.6
Objections
and Rebuttals
62
3.7
The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions
67
References 68
4.
The Fundamental Judgment Strategy:
Anchoring and Adjustment
71
4.1
Salient Values
71
4.2
Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment
73
4.3
Anchoring on Ourselves
80
4.4
Anchoring the Past in the Present
83
References
85
5.
Judging Heuristically
87
5.1
Going Beyond the Information Given
87
5.2
Estimating Frequencies and Probabilities
88
5.3
Availability of Memories
89
5.4
Biased Samples in Memory
92
5.5
Biased Sampling From Memory
94
5.6
Availability to the Imagination
97
5.7
From Availability to Probability and Causality
98
5.8
Judgment by Similarity: Same Old Things
101
5.9
Representative Thinking
105
5.10
The Ratio Rule
108
References
115
6.
Explanation-Based Judgments
117
6.1
Everyone Likes a Good Story
117
6.2
The Conjunction Probability Error (Again)
118
6.3
Judging From Explanations
120
6.4
Legal Scenarios: The Best Story Wins in the Courtroom
123
6.5
Scenarios About Ourselves
128
6.6
Scenarios About the Unthinkable
130
6.7
Hindsight: Reconstructing the Past
133
6.8
Sometimes It's Better to Forget
137
References
137
7.
Chance and Cause
139
7.1
Misconceptions About Chance
139
7.2
Illusions of Control
141
7.3
Seeing Causal Structure Where It Isn't
143
7.4
Regression Toward the Mean
150
7.5
Reflections on Our Inability to Accept Randomness
155
References
155
8.
Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty
157
8.1
What to Do About the Biases
157
8.2
Getting Started Thinking in Terms of Probabilities
159
8.3
Comprehending the Situation Being Judged
163
8.4
Testing for Rationality
168
8.5
How to Think About Inverse Probabilities
170
8.6
Avoiding Subadditivity and Conjunction Errors
174
8.7
The Other Side of the Coin:
The Probability of a Disjunction of Events
177
8.8
Changing Our Minds: Bayes's Theorem
178
8.9
Statistical Decision Theory
184
8.10
Concluding Comment on Rationality
188
References
190
9.
Evaluating Consequences: Fundamental Preferences
193
9.1
What Good Is Happiness?
193
9.2
The Role of Emotions in Evaluations
198
9.3
The Value of Money
201
9.4
Decision Utility—Predicting What We Will Value
209
9.5
Constructing Values
213
References
215
10.
From Preferences to Choices
217
10.1
Deliberate Choices Among Complex Alternatives
217
10.2
Ordering Alternatives
223
10.3
Grouping Alternatives
229
10.4
Choosing Unconsciously
230
10.5
How to Make Good Choices
233
References
234
11.
A Rational Decision Theory
237
11.1
Formally Defining Rationality
237
11.2
Making Theories
Understandable
—
The Axiomatic Method
241
11.3
Defining Rationality: Expected Utility Theory
244
11.4
Traditional Objections to the Axioms
259
11.5
The Shoulds and
Dos
of the System
263
11.6
Some Bum Raps for Decision Analysis
268
References
270
12.
A Descriptive Decision Theory
271
12.1
Non-expected Utility Theories
271
12.2
Gain-Loss Framing Effects
281
12.3
Loss Aversion
288
12.4
Look to the Future
291
References
292
13.
What's Next? New Directions in
Research on Judgment and Decision Making
295
13.1
The
Neuroscience
of Decisions
296
13.2
Emotions in Decision Making
304
13.3
The Rise of Experimental Methods to
Study Dynamic Decisions
310
13.4
Do We Really Know Where We're Headed?
315
References
315
14.
In Praise of Uncertainty
319
14.1
Uncertainty as Negative
319
14.2
The Illusion of Hedonic Certainty
325
14.3
The Price of Denying Uncertainty
326
14.4
Two Cheers for Uncertainty
331
14.5
Living With Uncertainty
333
References
334
Appendix: Basic Principles of Probability Theory
337
Index
361
About the Authors
373 |
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| id | DE-604.BV035010039 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T21:43:30Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:20:07Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781412959032 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016679303 |
| oclc_num | 430736629 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-83 DE-703 DE-20 DE-M347 DE-384 DE-29 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-11 DE-188 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-1050 |
| owner_facet | DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-83 DE-703 DE-20 DE-M347 DE-384 DE-29 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-11 DE-188 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-1050 |
| physical | XII, 374 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publishDateSearch | 2010 |
| publishDateSort | 2010 |
| publisher | SAGE |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Hastie, Reid 1947- Verfasser (DE-588)142970719 aut Rational choice in an uncertain world the psychology of judgment and decision making Reid Hastie ; Robyn M. Dawes 2. ed. Los Angeles [u.a.] SAGE 2010 XII, 374 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke Decision making Judgment Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 gnd rswk-swf Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd rswk-swf Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 s Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 s Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 s DE-604 Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 s Dawes, Robyn M. 1936-2010 Verfasser (DE-588)17203860X aut Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016679303&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Hastie, Reid 1947- Dawes, Robyn M. 1936-2010 Rational choice in an uncertain world the psychology of judgment and decision making Decision making Judgment Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 gnd Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 gnd Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047704-6 (DE-588)4078671-7 (DE-588)4113448-5 (DE-588)4070864-0 |
| title | Rational choice in an uncertain world the psychology of judgment and decision making |
| title_auth | Rational choice in an uncertain world the psychology of judgment and decision making |
| title_exact_search | Rational choice in an uncertain world the psychology of judgment and decision making |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Rational choice in an uncertain world the psychology of judgment and decision making |
| title_full | Rational choice in an uncertain world the psychology of judgment and decision making Reid Hastie ; Robyn M. Dawes |
| title_fullStr | Rational choice in an uncertain world the psychology of judgment and decision making Reid Hastie ; Robyn M. Dawes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rational choice in an uncertain world the psychology of judgment and decision making Reid Hastie ; Robyn M. Dawes |
| title_short | Rational choice in an uncertain world |
| title_sort | rational choice in an uncertain world the psychology of judgment and decision making |
| title_sub | the psychology of judgment and decision making |
| topic | Decision making Judgment Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 gnd Urteilen (DE-588)4078671-7 gnd Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Decision making Judgment Psychologie Urteilen Entscheidungsverhalten Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016679303&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hastiereid rationalchoiceinanuncertainworldthepsychologyofjudgmentanddecisionmaking AT dawesrobynm rationalchoiceinanuncertainworldthepsychologyofjudgmentanddecisionmaking |