The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Undetermined |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Homewood, Ill.
Business One Irwin
1993
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXIV, 487 S. |
| ISBN: | 1556236255 |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000 c 4500 | ||
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| 049 | |a DE-188 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Kroll, Stanley |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets |c Stanley Kroll ; Michael J. Paulenoff |
| 264 | 1 | |a Homewood, Ill. |b Business One Irwin |c 1993 | |
| 300 | |a XXIV, 487 S. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Paulenoff, Michael J. |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m HBZ Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=021725814&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | CONTENTS
PREFACE vii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix
ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS xi
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES xix
SECTION 1 HISTORY AND DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURES
MARKETS
CHAPTER 1 THE HISTORY OF FUTURES MARKETS 3
The Beginning of To-Arrive Trading, 4 To-Arrive Trading
in the United States, 6 Changes in the
System, 9 The Birth of Financial Futures, 11
CHAPTER 2 THE COMMODITY FUTURES CONTRACT 17
Essentials of the Futures Contract, 17 Trading
Units, 19 Maximum Daily Price Fluctuations, 20 Trading
Months, 21 Criteria for Development of a Futures
Contract, 22
CHAPTER 3 FUTURES EXCHANGES IN ACTION 24
The Chicago Board of Trade, 24 Organization of the
Chicago Board of Trade, 25 Trading in the Pits, 27
Entering, Executing, and Reporting Futures Orders, 30
The Chicago Board of Trade: Anatomy of a
Transaction, 30 The Coffee, Sugar, and Cocoa Exchange:
Anatomy of a Commercial Transaction, 33
SECTION 2 REGULATION OF FUTURES MARKETS
CHAPTER 4 GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN COMMODITY TRADE
AND FUTURES MARKETS (by Donald W. Westfall) 41
Government Support for Agriculture, 42 Price
Supports, 43 Income Support Programs, 44 Supply
Controls, 45 International Trade Programs, 46 Policy
Trends, 48 Other Government Price Interventions, 50 The
Strategic Petroleum Reserve, 50 Strategic Metals
xiii
Stockpile, 51 Financial and Debt Instruments, 52
Regulation of Futures Markets, 53
CHAPTER 5 INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY AGREEMENTS 57
Impetus to Commodity Arrangements, 59 Types of
Commodity Agreements, 62 International Coffee
Agreement: Quota Controls, 63 OPEC: Production Controls,
66 The Group of Seven: Buffer Stock Management, 68
Conclusion, 72
SECTION 3 FUTURES AS A VIABLE PRICING MECHANISM
CHAPTER 6 SEASONAL FACTORS IN THE FUTURES MARKETS 75
Seasonal Cash and Commodity Tendencies, 75 Crop Years:
Old and New Crops, 78 Copper: A Nonagricultural
Seasonal, 79
CHAPTER 7 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CASH AND
FUTURES MARKETS 83
Types of Futures Markets, 85 Carrying Charge (Premium)
Market, 86 Inverse Market, 88 Flat Market, 91
Conclusion, 91
CHAPTER 8 HOW FUTURES PRICES ARE ESTABLISHED 93
The Influence of Supply and Demand, 93 The Influence of
Perceptions, 95 The Influence of Price Changes, 96
SECTION 4 FUTURES PRICE ANALYSIS
CHAPTER 9 THE QUEST FOR PROFITS IN FUTURES TRADING 99
The Problem of Prediction, 99 Insiders and
Outsiders, 101 Sources of Trading Guidance, 103
The Folklore of Wall Street, 104 Who Wins and Who Loses
in Futures Speculation?, 106 Decision Rules for Futures
Trading, 107 The Fundamental Approach, 107
The Technical Approach, 108
CHAPTER 10 INTRODUCTION TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 109
Technical Analysis: Art or Science?, 109 Components of
Technical Analysis: The Chart, 110 The Daily Bar
Chart, 110 The Point-and-Figure Chart, 111 The Moving
Average Bar Chart, 114 Chart Analysis: Basic Rules, 115
Chart Formations, 120 Tops and Bottoms, 120
Continuation Patterns: The Key to Successful Trading, 125
Market Gaps, 129 Conventional Measurements: Projections
and Retracements, 131 Summary: Rules of Technical
Analysis, 138
CHAPTER 11 ADVANCED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION 140
Cycles, Waves, and Other Assorted Esoterica, 140
Cycle Analysis, 140 Wave Analysis, 146 Associated
Esoterica: Mathematical Sensors, 152 Summary: More
Rules of Technical Analysis, 155
CHAPTER 12 INTRODUCTION TO JAPANESE CANDLESTICK
CHARTING (by Steve Nison) 156
Constructing the Candlesticks, 157 Reversal Patterns, 164
The Hammer and the Hanging Man, 164 The Engulfing
Pattern, 170 The Dark Cloud Cover, 172 The Piercing
Pattern, 175 Stars, 176 Windows, 181 Confluence: Western
Signals and Candlesticks, 184 Conclusion, 186
CHAPTER 13 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (by Donald W. Westfall) 188
What Is Fundamental Analysis?, 188 Why Do It? 190
How the Fundamental Analyst Looks at Markets, 192
An Example: The Sugar Market, 1979-1981, 193 The
Supply and Demand Balance, 196 Market Structure, 197
Market Developments, 198 Conclusions, 202
CHAPTER 14 PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER 205
The Game Plan, 205 Establish the Major Trend of the
Market, 205 Examine the Technical Data for Trend
Confirmations and Divergences, 208 Examine the
Fundamentals, 208 Market Timing and Strategy, 209
Discipline, Discipline, Discipline, 213
The Logical Approach, 213
SECTION 5 THE COMPUTER IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
(by Thomas E. Aspray)
CHAPTER 15 INTRODUCTION TO COMPUTER ANALYSIS 217
What Computers Can Do, 217 Basic Requirements for
Computerized Analysis, 219 Spreadsheet Analysis
Software, 220 Technical Analysis Software, 222
Intraday Analysis, 223
CHAPTER 16 THE COMPUTER AND FUTURES PRICE ANALYSIS 228
Objective Analysis, 228 Subjective Analysis, 235
CHAPTER 17 THE COMPUTER AND TRADING SYSTEMS 238
The Directional Movement Index, 238 The Relative
Strength Index, 247 On-Balance Volume, 254 The Herrick
Payoff Index, 261 Moving Average Convergence/
Divergence, 266
CHAPTER 18 DESIGNING AND TESTING THE TRADING SYSTEM 273
Design Basics, 273 The Four-Week Rule: A Sample Trad¬
ing System, 276 Testing, 284 Data Types, 284 Test Period
and Cost, 285 Report Criteria, 285 Formulas, 291
SECTION 6 THE TACTICS OF TRADING
CHAPTER 19 TRADING PRELIMINARIES 295
Buying, Selling, and Delivering, 295 Differences between
the Commodity and the Securities Markets, 296 Selecting
an Account Executive, 299 Opening an Account, 300
Who Trades in Futures? 305 How Futures Prices Are
Disseminated, 306 Newspaper Price Quotations, 307
Electronic Quote Machines, 307 Sources of Market
Information, 307 U.S. Government Statistics, 310
National Weather Service, 311 Futures Exchanges, 312
Futures Brokerage Firms, 312 Private Advisory
Services, 312 Financial Newspapers, 313 Television, 314
Books, 314 Futures Margins, 314 Requirements, 316
Realized Profits and Losses, 317 Paper Profits and
Losses, 317 Equity and Excess, 317 Commissions, 319
CHAPTER 20 TRADING TECHNIQUES 321
Budget Concepts, 321 Trading Concepts, 324
Identification, 326 Tactics, 326 Initiating a Position, 328
Closing Out a Position, 332 Closing Out a Position at a
Profit, 332 Closing Out a Position at a Loss, 333
Anticipating the Unexpected, 333 Trading in the Spot
Month, 334 Conclusion: The Don ts of Trading, 335
CHAPTER 21 TRADING STRATEGIES AND RISK CONTROL 337
Basic Strategic Tenets, 338 Keeping Emotions in
Check, 338 Following Trends, 339 Risk Control, 342
CHAPTER 22 SPREADS 345
Purpose of the Spread, 347 When to Spread, 348
Selecting Spread Possibilities, 349 The Loom of Carrying
Charges, 350 Principal Spreads, 353
Jntracommodity Spread—Low-Risk Variety, 353
Intercommodity Spread—High-Risk Variety, 355
Location Spread, 358 Spreads Based on Differences in
Delivery Grade, 360 Multicommodity Spread, 361
Processor s Spread, 363 Other Spread Plays: Financial
Futures Spreads, 366 Conclusion, 371
CHAPTER 23 FUTURES OPTIONS: AN INTRODUCTION 372
What Is an Option on a Futures Contract? 373
Obligations of the Option Buyer and Seller, 373 What the
Option Buyer and Seller Hope to Achieve, 373
The Elements of Put and Call Options, 374 The Strike
Price, 374 The Premium, 374 The Expiration Date, 375
Out-of-the-Money and In-the-Money Options, 375 Intrinsic
Value of the Option, 375 Time Decay, 375 Volatility, 376
How to Use Options, 376 Situation 1, 377 Situation 2, 379
Situation 3, 379 Situation 4, 382
SECTION 7 COMMERCIAL INTERESTS AND THE
FUTURES MARKET
CHAPTER 24 FUTURES AS A VERSATILE MARKETING MEDIUM 387
Futures as an Alternative Market, 388 Is It a Hedge or a
Speculation? 390
CHAPTER 25 HEDGING FOR INSURANCE AND PROFIT 395
Introduction to Hedging, 395 The Need for Hedging, 396
Types of Hedge Transactions, 400 The Selling Hedge, 400
The Buying Hedge, 401 Price Variations between the
Cash and Futures Markets: The Basis, 402 Merchandising
Profits and Risks and the Basis, 403 The Nature and
Causes of Basis Changes, 404 Anticipating Changes in
the Basis, 406 Basis Trading, 408 Hedging: Pitfalls
and Proprieties, 411 Hedging Recap, 412 General
Observations, 412 Specific Observations, 412
CHAPTER 26 PROGRAM TRADING WITH STOCK INDEX FUTURES
(by Joanne M. Hill and Dawn Diorio) 414
Stock Indices: The Underlying Portfolio, 415
Composition, 415 Foreign Stock Indices, 422 Index-Based
Investing and Program Trading, 423 Index Futures
Contracts and Trading Overview, 423 Index Futures
Pricing, Trading Costs, and Index Arbitrage, 432 Index
Futures Strategies, 435 Shifting Asset Mixes or Equity
Market Exposure, 436 Creating Synthetic Index Fund
Portfolios or Equitizing Cash, 437 Hedging Stock
Portfolios, 438 Capitalizing on Stock Selection, 440
Investing in a Stock Index with Reduced Currency
Risk, 440 Enhancing Returns on Cash Equivalents, 441
Speculating on Stock Market Moves, 442 Summary, 443
CHAPTER 27 CASE HISTORIES OF TRADE HEDGING 444
ABC Chocolate Company, 444 Amalgamated Copper
Corporation, 447 AZK International Motorworks
Company, 448 General Farm Corporation, 449
SECTION 8 THE PHILOSOPHY OF A BILLION-DOLLAR
FUND MANAGER
CHAPTER 28 LARRY HITE ON TRADING STRATEGY 455
The Good Bets Business, 458 Zen and the Art of
Trading, 458 Managing Money, Large or
Small, 460
APPENDIX 463
BIBLIOGRAPHY 475
INDEX 479
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
Chapter 2
Tables
2.1 Standard Contract Grade 18
2.2 Tenderable Grades of Soybean 18
2.3 Tenderable Grades of Coffee 19
2.4 Maximum Price Fluctuations 20
2.5 Most Active Trading Months for Selected Futures 22
Chapter 3
Figure
3.1 Traders Hand and Finger Signals 29
Chapter 5
Table
5.1 OPEC Crude Output before and during the Persian
Gulf War 67
Chapter 6
Figures
6.1 Worldwide Refined Consumption Seasonals 80
6.2 Worldwide Reported Inventory Seasonals 81
6.3 COMEX Copper Price Seasonals 82
Table
6.1 Normal Seasonal Pattern of Cash Commodity
Prices 77
Chapter 7
Tables
7.1 Futures Quotations of Three Markets (April 19,
1991) 86
7.2 Spot and Futures Quotations of U.S. Dollar Index 87
7.3 Futures Quotations of British Pound (April 19,
1991) 89
xix
Chapter 10
Table
10.1 Tabular Data: October 1991 Sugar 112
Figures
10.1 October 1991 Sugar with Moving
Averages 111
10.2 60-Minute September 1991 Crude Oil 113
10.3 Weekly Deutsche Mark 117
10.4 Daily September 1991 Coffee 118
10.5 December 1991 Cotton 119
10.6 Major Top and Bottom Price Formations 121
10.7 August 1991 Soybean Oil 123
10.8 September 1991 Crude Oil 124
10.9 Weekly Commodity Research Bureau Index 125
10.10 120-Minute September 1991 Deutsche Mark and Daily
September 1991 Deutsche Mark 127
10.11 September 1991 Crude Oil 128
10.12 15-Minute September 1991 S P 129
10.13 December 1991 Corn 131
10.14 September 1991 COMEX Silver 132
10.15 December 1988 Corn 134
10.16 March 1991 3-Month T-Bills 136
Chapter 11
Figures
11.1 Short-Term Cyclicity 142
11.2 30-Month Cycle 144
11.3 Saucer Bottom Pattern 145
11.4 Elementary Elliott Wave Patterns 146
11.5 Wave Counts 148
11.6 Primary Down-Leg Unfolding 148
11.7 Ratio Analysis of Wave Form 150
11.8 9-Day RSI 154
Chapter 12
Figures
12.1 Bar Chart 158
12.2 Candlestick Chart 158
12.3 Bar Chart Compared with Candlestick Chart 159
12.4 Bearish Candlestick 160
12.5 Bullish Candlestick 160
12.6 Spinning Tops 160
12.7 Spinning Tops (September 1991 Silver) 161
12.8 Doji Lines 162
12.9 Doji after a Long White Candlestick 163
12.10 Hammer and Hanging Man
Candlesticks 165
12.11 The Hammer 165
12.12 The Hanging Man 165
12.13 Hanging Man and Hammer 167
12.14 Bullish Hammers 167
12.15 Hammers 168
12.16 Classic Hanging Man 169
12.17 Hanging Man 170
12.18 Bullish Engulfing Pattern 171
12.19 Bearish Engulfing Pattern 171
12.20 Bullish Engulfing Pattern 172
12.21 Bearish Engulfing Patterns 173
12.22 Dark Cloud Cover 173
12.23 Three Dark Cloud Covers 174
12.24 Piercing Pattern 176
12.25 Piercing Pattern 177
12.26 Stars 177
12.27 Morning Star 178
12.28 Classic Morning Star 179
12.29 Evening Star 180
12.30 Island Top 180
12.31 Evening Star 181
12.32 Uptrend Window 182
12.33 Downtrend Window 182
12.34 Window as Support 183
12.35 Window as Support and Resistance 184
12.36 Candles with Trendlines 185
12.37 Cluster of Candlesticks 186
Chapter 13
Tables
13.1 World Sugar Balance, 1974-1980 196
Figures
13.1 High-Impact Variables 194
13.2 March 1981 Sugar 11 195
13.3 World Sugar: Price and Change in Production 200
13.4 Sugar Prices and Interest Rates 203
Chapter 14
Figures
14.1 A View of the Long-term Bear Market 206
14.2 Weekly Cocoa with Three Technical Oscillators 207
14.3 Monthly Cocoa with Resistance Band 210
14.4 September 1990 Cocoa 212
Chapter 15
Figures
15.1 Spreadsheet Calculation for 10-Day Moving
Average 222
15.2 Customized TeleTrac Screen 225
15.3 TeleTrac Screen 226
Chapter 16
Figures
16.1 21-Day SMA 229
16.2 MA with Nontrending Activity 230
16.3 Results of Dual MA Crossover System 232
16.4 8-Day and 48-Day SMAs 233
16.5 13-Day and 34-Day MAs 233
16.6 10-Week and 30-Week MAs 234
16.7 Momentum Indicator Showing Negative
Divergence 236
16.8 Momentum Indicator Showing Positive
Divergence 237
Chapter 17
Figures
17.1 1988 Soybeans with ADXR Line 240
17.2 Dollar Index with ADXR 242
17.3 Deutsche Mark with ADXR 243
17.4 S P with ADXR 244
17.5 +DI, -DI, DIOSC, and ADXR 245
17.6 Dollar Index with ADXR and DIOSC 246
17.7 October 1991 Gold with ADXR and DIOSC 247
17.8 April 1989 Gold with RSI 249
17.9 Pork Bellies with RSI 250
17.10 Nikkei Dow with RSI and WMA 251
17.11 Deutsche Mark with RSI and 21-Period WMA 252
17.12 British Pound with Volume 255
17.13 T-Bonds with OBV 257
17.14 T-Bonds with OBV 258
17.15 Soybeans with OBV 259
17.16 Deutsche Mark with OBV 260
17.17 Eurodollars wtih HPI 263
17.18 Crude Oil with HPI 264
17.19 April Gold with HPI 265
17.20 Soybeans with MACD Lines 267
17.21 Yen with MACD 269
17.22 Soybeans with MACD-His 270
17.23 British Pound with MACD-His and MACD-Mo 271
Chapter 18
Figures
18.1 April Gold with Four-Week Rule 277
18.2 Soybean Meal with Four-Week Channel 279
18.3 April Gold with ADXR 280
18.4 Soybean Meal with ADXR 281
18.5 April Gold with DIOSC 282
18.6 Soybean Meal with DIOSC 283
18.7 Deutsche Mark with RSIOSC 286
18.8 Summary Report 287
18.9 Long-term Trading System Daily Worksheet 289
Chapter 19
Table
19.1 Exchange Minimum Margin Requirements 315
Figures
19.1 Summary of Required Account Forms 301
19.2 Trade Confirmation 303
19.3 Monthly Commodity Statement 304
19.4 Wall Street Journal Futures Prices (January 17,
1992) 308
19.5 Electronic Quote Page 310
Chapter 20
Figure
20.1 Trading Form 329
Chapter 21
Table
21.1 Risk Control Guideline 343
Chapter 22
Figures
22.1 Copper: Intercommodity Spread 356
22.2 December 1988 Wheat -Corn Spread 363
22.3 Foreign Currency Spread 367
22.4 Weekly Treasury Note-Treasury Bond Spread 370
Chapter 24
Table
24.1 Commercial Uses of Futures Markets 392
Chapter 25
Tables
25.1 The Selling Hedge 401
25.2 The Buying Hedge 402
Chapter 26
Figures
26.1 Performance of Selected Stock Market Indices 417
26.2 NYSE versus Total Index Futures Dollar Volume Daily
Average 430
26.3 Index Futures Dollar Volume 431
26.4 S P 500 Futures Open Interest versus Volume 432
26.5 T-Bill Mispricing of S P 500 Nearby Futures Basis 435
Tables
26.1 Performance of Global Stock Indices 417
26.2 Top 20 Stocks in S P 500 by Capitalization 419
26.3 Dow Jones Industrial Average and Major Market
Index 420
26.4 Correlation Table of Selected Stock Indices 422
26.5 Price Quotations on Futures 424
26.6 U.S. Stock Index Futures Contract Specifications 427
26.7 Selected International Stock Index Futures Contract
Specifications 428
26.8 Specifications of Stock Index Futures Contracts on
Japanese Indices 429
Chapter 27
Tables
27.1 ABC Chocolate Hedge Operation 446
27.2 Amalgamated Copper Hedge Operation 448
27.3 AZK Motorworks Hedge Operation 450
27.4 General Farm Hedge Operation 451
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| spelling | Kroll, Stanley Verfasser aut The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets Stanley Kroll ; Michael J. Paulenoff Homewood, Ill. Business One Irwin 1993 XXIV, 487 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Paulenoff, Michael J. Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=021725814&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Kroll, Stanley The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets |
| title | The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets |
| title_auth | The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets |
| title_exact_search | The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets |
| title_full | The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets Stanley Kroll ; Michael J. Paulenoff |
| title_fullStr | The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets Stanley Kroll ; Michael J. Paulenoff |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets Stanley Kroll ; Michael J. Paulenoff |
| title_short | The Business One Irwin guide to the futures markets |
| title_sort | the business one irwin guide to the futures markets |
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