Modeling water resources management at the Basin level: methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington
International Food Policy Research Institute
2006
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Research report / International Food Policy Research Institute
149 |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 151 S. |
| ISBN: | 0896291529 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Cai, Ximing |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)135611504 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modeling water resources management at the Basin level |b methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin |c Ximing Cai ; Claudia Ringler and Mark W. Rosegrant |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington |b International Food Policy Research Institute |c 2006 | |
| 300 | |a XVII, 151 S. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a Research report / International Food Policy Research Institute |v 149 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ringler, Claudia |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1065619057 |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rosegrant, Mark W. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 810 | 2 | |a International Food Policy Research Institute <Washington, DC> |t Research report |v 149 |w (DE-604)BV000721261 |9 149 | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m HBZ Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020048641&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804142584918966272 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Tables iv
List of Figures vii
List of Boxes xi
Foreword xii
Acknowledgments xiii
Summary xiv
1. Introduction 1
2. The Chilean Context and the Study Basin 4
3. Modeling Framework 19
4. Model Implementation and Solution 38
5. Basin-Optimizing Solution and Sensitivity Analyses 46
6. Water Trade Analysis 59
7. Water Use Efficiency Analysis 64
8. Irrigation Technology Choice under Uncertainty 82
9. Analysis of Water versus Other Inputs in an Integrated Economic-Hydrologic
Modeling Framework 94
10. Conclusions and Recommendations 112
Appendix A: Model Formulation 118
Appendix B: Input Parameters and Model Output 129
Appendix C: Average Crop-Level Shadow Prices versus Demand-Site Level
Shadow Values 146
References 147
iii
Tables
2.1 Irrigated area by crop, Chile, mid-1990s 6
2.2 Water demand at the offtake level by hydrologic unit, Maipo River Basin,
mid-1990s 11
2.3 Irrigation districts in the Maipo/Mapocho Basin 12
2.4 Municipal surface water withdrawals by hydrologic unit, Maipo River Basin 13
2.5 Average water tariffs, April 1997 13
2.6 Hydropower stations, Maipo River Basin 14
2.7 Main water rights holders, first section, Mapocho River, September 1999 18
3.1 Optimal water application at given levels of other inputs in A1 31
3.2 Coefficients of the shadow price-water regression function for different
demand sites 35
4.1 Comparison of the performance of objective formulations, water application
in crop growth stages, example of wheat 41
4.2 Model statistics at different steps 44
5.1 Harvested area under the Basin-optimizing solution 47
5.2 Harvested area from Basin-optimizing solution as a ratio of actual
harvested area 47
5.3 Crop yield under Basin-optimizing solution scenario as a ratio of maximum
crop yield 48
5.4 Crop production under the Basin-optimizing solution scenario (BOS) and
comparison of basinwide production under BOS with actual crop production 48
5.5 Ratio of crop water applied to maximum evapotranspiration at each crop
growth stage, demand site A1 51
5.6 Irrigation (field application) efficiency, by crop and demand site 52
5.7 Water withdrawals, by crop and demand site 52
5.8 Profit per unit of water withdrawal, by crop and demand site 53
5.9 Profit, by crop and demand site 53
5.10 Return flows from agriculture, by period and demand site 54
5.11 Salt concentration in mixed irrigation sources 54
TABLES
5.12 Salt concentration in deep percolation, by crop and demand site 55
5.13 Sensitivity analysis, various parameters 56
5.14 Sensitivity analysis for agricultural water price at 50 percent of
normal inflow 57
6.1 Scenario analysis under the Basin-optimizing solution, Fixed water rights,
and Water rights with trading scenarios 60
6.2 Transaction cost scenarios (Case A) 60
6.3 Harvested irrigated area with normal inflows under Basin-optimizing
solution, Fixed water rights, and Water rights with trading scenarios 62
6.4 Irrigation technology under Basin-optimizing solution, Fixed water rights,
and Water rights with trading scenarios, dry and normal years 63
7.1 Change in field application efficiency for various crops (under 60 percent of
normal inflow) under the Basin-optimizing solution, Fixed water rights, and
Water rights with trading scenarios 69
7.2 Aggregated field application efficiency by demand sites, at 100 percent of
normal inflow (normal year) and 60 percent of normal inflow (dry year)
under the Basin-optimizing solution, Fixed water rights, and Water rights
with trading scenarios 69
7.3 Water withdrawals at 60 percent of normal inflow under the Basin-
optimizing solution. Fixed water rights, and Water rights with
trading scenarios 70
7.4 Economic crop value per unit of water use at 60 percent of normal inflows
under the Basin-optimizing solution, Fixed water rights, and Water rights
with trading scenarios 71
7.5a Basin-level aggregation at 60 percent of normal inflows under the Basin-
optimizing solution, Field irrigation technology, Fixed water rights, and
Water rights with trading scenarios, selected results 72
7.5b Irrigation demand sites at 60 percent of normal inflows under the Basin-
optimizing solution, Field irrigation technology, Fixed water rights, and
Water rights with trading scenarios, selected results 72
7.6 Comparison of wheat and grape production at the basin level under
the Basin-optimizing solution and Fixed water rights scenarios,
selected results 73
9.1 Opportunity cost of water, by crop and demand site 99
9.2 Opportunity cost of crop land, by crop and demand site 99
9.3 Calibrated water loss coefficients, by demand site and period 100
9.4 Agricultural inputs and net profit, by irrigation demand site, under the
Baseline scenario 104
9.5a Changes in agricultural inputs and net profits, by irrigation demand site
under the Full optimization scenario compared with the Baseline scenario 105
vi TABLES
9.5b Percentage change in agricultural inputs and net profits, by irrigation
demand site, under the Full optimization scenario compared with the
Baseline scenario 105
9.6a Changes in agricultural inputs and net profits, by irrigation demand site,
under the Substitution among water and other inputs scenario compared
with the Baseline scenario 106
9.6b Percentage change in agricultural inputs and net profits, by irrigation
demand site, under the Substitution among water and other inputs scenario
compared with the Baseline scenario 107
9.7 Net profit of water, share of low-value crops, and inferred shadow prices of
water, by irrigation demand site 107
B.I Input parameters for the simulation program 130
B.2 Area of irrigation demand sites 131
B.3 Total water supply for municipal and industrial demand sites 131
B.4 Crop parameters by crop category 131
B.5 Potential crop evapotranspiration, demand site Al 132
B.6 Effective rainfall, demand site Al 133
B.7 Within-season yield response coefficients, Ky 134
B.8 Production function coefficients: Regression coefficients based on
outputs from the simulation model 135
B.9 Agricutural inputs: Average values from the field survey 136
B.lOa Production function coefficients from the generalized maximum entropy
program: Linear coefficients 139
B.I0b Production function coefficients from the generalized maximum entropy
program (b): Nonlinear intersectoral coefficients 140
B. 11 Data for hydropower stations 142
B. 12 Fluviometric stations in the Maipo River Basin 143
B. 13 Inflow to rivers and tributaries in a normal year 144
B.14 Parameters for ground water sources 145
Figures
2.1 Location of the Maipo River Basin in Chile 8
2.2 Geographic and administrative features of the Maipo River Basin 9
2.3 Average monthly rainfall and variation coefficient, Santiago, Chile, 1950-98 9
3.1 The Maipo River Basin network 21
3.2 Conceptual framework of a basin model—Hydrologie processes and water uses 22
3.3 Hydrologie processes considered in the crop field 22
3.4 The relationship between municipal and industrial sites and the hydrologic
components 23
3.5 Production function, crop (wheat) yield versus water application (indicator
of irrigation technology, Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient, CUC = 70,
salinity = 0.7 grams per liter) 24
3.6 Yield-salinity relationship, the example of wheat 25
3.7 Yield versus crop water use under different levels of irrigation technology
(Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient [CUC]), example of wheat 25
3.8a Relationship between optimal water application and field irrigation
technology under given value of irrigation salinity, example of wheat
(c = 0.3 grams per liter) 26
3.8b Relationship between optimal water application and irrigation salinity under
a given value of field irrigation technology, example of wheat (u = 70) 27
3.9a Relationships between first partial derivative of crop yield with respect to
irrigation technology (yj), for corn and grapes, and water use relative to
maximum crop evapotranspiration (u) 27
3.9b Relationships between first partial derivative of crop yield with respect to
salinity (y^) for corn and grapes, and water use relative to maximum crop
evapotranspiration (w) 28
3.10a Relationship between second partial derivative of crop yield to water and
irrigation technology (y^. u) for com and grapes, and water use relative to
maximum crop evapotranspiration (w) 29
3.10b Relationship between second partial derivative of crop yield with respect to
water and salinity (y ¿c) for corn and grapes, and water use relative to
maximum crop evapotranspiration (w) 29
3.11 Relationship between water withdrawals and municipal and industrial benefits 32
viii FIGURES
3.12 Relationship between shadow prices and water withdrawals, demand site Al
(upstream) 34
3.13 Relationship between shadow prices and water withdrawals, demand site A5
(downstream) 34
3.14 Relationship between shadow prices for water and water withdrawals,
municipal and industrial demand site Ml 35
3.15 Institutional representation for river basin management 37
4.1 Basic structure of the optimization model 39
4.2 Decision processes in the river basin model 39
4.3 A diagram of the spatial scales and associated hydrologic and economic
processes 40
5.1 Water withdrawals, source, and effective rainfall under Basin-optimizing
solution scenario 49
5.2 Crop pattern change as a result of changes in source salinity 57
6.1 Scenario comparing: Basin-optimizing solution, Fixed water rights, and
Water rights with trading scenarios in terms of municipal and industrial
benefits, agricultural benefits, and shadow prices 61
7.1 Basin irrigation efficiency and average local irrigation efficiency at various
levels of water distribution efficiency 75
7.2a Basin irrigation efficiency (physical) versus economic efficiency (total and
per unit water use profit) (water charge = US$0,015 per cubic meter) 76
7.2b Average local irrigation efficiency (physical) versus economic efficiency (total
and per unit water use profit) (water charge = US$0,015 per cubic meter) 76
7.3 Relationship between basin irrigation efficiency and system-level
conveyance/distribution efficiency under alternative water prices 77
7.4 Relationship between irrigation profit (water charge subtracted) and
conveyance/distribution efficiency under alternative water prices 78
7.5 Relationship between water consumption and outflow to the sea and
conveyance/distribution efficiency 79
7.6 Water withdrawal versus conveyance/distribution efficiency under alternative
water prices 79
7.7 Physical and economic efficiency under various water availability levels
under a given water demand 80
8.1 Marginal benefit/cost with changing irrigation technology for low-value
(MB 1 and MC 1) and high-value (MB2 and MC2) crops 83
8.2 Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient values resulting from three water-price
scenarios 84
8.3 Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient values resulting from three salinity
scenarios 85
FIGURES ix
8.4 Distribution of total annual inflow in the Maipo River Basin 86
8.5 Water withdrawal to demand site A1 under five alternative hydrologic
scenarios 87
8.6 Water withdrawal, effective rainfall, and crop evapotranspiration relative to
expected value under alternative scenarios for wheat in demand site Al 88
8.7 Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient of various crops from the stochastic
programming model and the deterministic programming model under the
very dry and very wet scenarios, respectively 89
8.8 Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient of various crops from the stochastic
programming model and the deterministic programming model under the
near-normal scenario 90
8.9 Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient of various crops from the stochastic
programming model and the deterministic programming model under the
Scenario analysis strategy 91
8.10 Net profit versus capital cost for irrigation technology and management:
Expected value and value under the very dry scenario 92
8.11 Relationship between marginal change in net profit and capital cost:
Expected value and value under the very dry scenario 92
9.1 Model calibration: Parameters and procedures 95
9.2 The impact of changing water prices on water withdrawals, instream flows,
and agricultural profits 101
9.3a Relationship between water application and crop yield under three levels of
irrigation investment, example of annual forage 101
9.3b Relationship between water application and crop yield under three levels of
labor cost, example of annual forage 102
9.4 Relationship between water application and water-irrigation investment
substitution coefficient (j wi) under different levels of irrigation investment 102
9.5 Relationship between water application and water-labor cost substitution
coefficient (t]iW) under different levels of labor cost 103
9.6a Relationship between water application and irrigation investment under
changing water prices 108
9.6b Relationship between water application and labor cost under changing
water prices 109
9.6c Relationship between water application and machinery cost under changing
water prices 109
9.6d Relationship between water application and fertilizer cost under changing
water prices i 10
9.6e Relationship between water application and pesticide cost under changing
water prices 110
x FIGURES
9.6f Relationship between water application and seed cost under changing
water prices 111
A.I Price versus water withdrawal 123
C. 1 Comparison of weighted average crop-level shadow values and demand-site
shadow value under alternative water withdrawals for irrigation demand
sites Al and A4 146
Boxes
4.1 Major Outputs Related to Hydrology Conditions and Hydrologie
System Operations 43
4.2 Major Outputs Related to Agricultural Production/Water Economics 43
|
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| author | Cai, Ximing Ringler, Claudia Rosegrant, Mark W. |
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| author_facet | Cai, Ximing Ringler, Claudia Rosegrant, Mark W. |
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| physical | XVII, 151 S. |
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| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
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| spelling | Cai, Ximing Verfasser (DE-588)135611504 aut Modeling water resources management at the Basin level methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin Ximing Cai ; Claudia Ringler and Mark W. Rosegrant Washington International Food Policy Research Institute 2006 XVII, 151 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Research report / International Food Policy Research Institute 149 Ringler, Claudia Verfasser (DE-588)1065619057 aut Rosegrant, Mark W. Verfasser aut International Food Policy Research Institute <Washington, DC> Research report 149 (DE-604)BV000721261 149 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020048641&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Cai, Ximing Ringler, Claudia Rosegrant, Mark W. Modeling water resources management at the Basin level methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin |
| title | Modeling water resources management at the Basin level methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin |
| title_auth | Modeling water resources management at the Basin level methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin |
| title_exact_search | Modeling water resources management at the Basin level methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin |
| title_full | Modeling water resources management at the Basin level methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin Ximing Cai ; Claudia Ringler and Mark W. Rosegrant |
| title_fullStr | Modeling water resources management at the Basin level methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin Ximing Cai ; Claudia Ringler and Mark W. Rosegrant |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling water resources management at the Basin level methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin Ximing Cai ; Claudia Ringler and Mark W. Rosegrant |
| title_short | Modeling water resources management at the Basin level |
| title_sort | modeling water resources management at the basin level methodology and application to the maipo river basin |
| title_sub | methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020048641&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV000721261 |
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