Renewable electricity and the grid: the challenge of variability
Gespeichert in:
| Weitere Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
London [u.a.]
Earthscan
2007
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXIII, 219 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 1844074188 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Renewable electricity and the grid |b the challenge of variability |c ed. by Godfrey Boyle |
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| 264 | 1 | |a London [u.a.] |b Earthscan |c 2007 | |
| 300 | |a XXIII, 219 S. |b graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804139002338476032 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures and Tables ix
List of Contributors xiv
Preface xix
Acknowledgements xxi
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xxii
1 Variable Renewables and the Grid: An Overview 1
Michael Laughton
Introduction 1
Renewable energy source variability 2
Grid operational requirements 11
Base-load capacity displacement with increasing wind
penetration 14
Conclusions 27
2 Wind Power on the Grid 31
David Milborrow
Introduction 31
Electricity system operation 31
Wind characteristics 36
Managing a network with wind 38
Capacity credits 41
Total extra costs of wind energy 45
Wind energy penetration levels above 20 per cent 47
The influence of national and regional differences 49
Conclusions 51
3 Renewable Resource Characteristics and Network Integration 55
Graham Sinden
Introduction 55
Renewable electricity generation in the UK 55
Characteristics 58
Renewable electricity supply and demand patterns 63
vi Renewable Electricity and the Grid
The role of wind power in providing capacity on
electricity networks 67
Conclusions 71
4 The UK Energy Research Centre Review of the Costs
and Impacts of Intermittency 73
Robert Gross, Philip Heptonstall, Matthew Leach, Jim Skea,
Dennis Anderson and Tim Green
Introduction 73
Power system reliability and operation 74
Misconceptions and sources of controversy 77
Quantitative findings on impacts and costs 79
Summary of findings and conclusions 86
5 Wind Power Forecasting 95
Bernhard Lange, Kurt Rohrig, Florian Schlögl, Ümit CaIi
and Rene Jursa
Introduction 95
Applications of wind power forecasting 97
Steps in a forecasting system 97
Numerical weather prediction 98
Different approaches to the power output forecast 99
Forecast horizon 101
Regional upscaling 103
Smoothing effect 105
Forecast accuracy 107
Example: The Wind Power Management System (WPMS) HO
Learning curve of forecasting accuracy 112
Examples of current research 113
Future challenges 117
6 Flexibility of Fossil Fuel Plant in a Renewable Energy Scenario:
Possible Implications for the UK 121
Fred Starr
Introduction 121
The UK power plant system of today 123
Advanced generating plants, energy savings and the issue
of climate change 124
Design and operation of coal- and natural gas-powered
steam plants 125
Pseudo-intermittency with today s plants 130
Renewable Electricity and the Grid vii
Effects on plant components and reliability 132
Intermittency and power plants of the future 136
Conclusions 140
7 The Potential Contribution of Emergency Diesel Standby
Generators in Dealing with the Variability of Renewable
Energy Sources 143
David Andrews
Introduction: Wessex Water 143
The National Grid Transco Frequency Service 143
The National Grid Transco Reserve Service 144
Reserve and standby generating capacity on the UK National Grid 144
Triads : A revenue-earning opportunity 146
Other benefits: Testing diesels off load 147
8 Demand Flexibility, Micro-Combined Heat and Power and the
Informated Grid 151
Bob Everett
Introduction 151
What is needed 152
What is on offer 153
Metering and the future 155
9 A Renewable Electricity System for the UK 157
Mark Barrett
Introduction 157
Scenario context 159
A sustainable electricity system 162
System integration and optimization 167
Conclusions 178
10 Reliable Power, Wind Variability and Offshore Grids in Europe 181
Brian Hurley, Paul Hughes and Gregor Giebel
Where are the wind resources? 181
What happens when the wind does not blow? 183
The reliability of dispersed offshore wind power 187
Effect of wind farm power output forecasting 190
Delivered cost estimates for new grid and wind farms 190
Results for Europe 193
A Project for Europe: European-wide Supergrid 194
Conclusions 198
vHi Renewable Electricity and the Grid
11 Planning for Variability in the Longer Term:
The Challenge of a Truly Sustainable Energy System 201
David Infield and Simon Watson
Introduction 201
Renewable source-dominated energy supply systems 202
Energy storage and demand-side management 204
Conclusions and further research 209
Index 211
List of Figures and Tables
Figures
1.1 Tidal cycle and electricity generation periods for a barrage with
additional pumping at high tide 3
1.2 Typical annual variation in wave power levels 4
1.3 Wind turbine output characteristics 5
1.4 Influence of storm conditions on spot electricity prices in
Danish kroners per megawatt hour in West Denmark during
the first week of January 2005 6
1.5 Large fluctuations in wind output in the E.ON Netz network in
Germany 7
1.6 Example of longer-term changes in average annual wind speeds 8
1.7 Wind data for mainland Britain on Wednesday, 28 December 2005,
at 18:00 GMT: Light winds with cold anticyclone weather 10
1.8 Daily load variation on the UK National Grid system showing
maximum and minimum demand days from 1 July 2005 to
30 June 2006 12
1.9 National Grid demand and generation capacity available for the
12 months from 1 July 2005, with reference to the weekly system
peak load demands (SPLDs) 15
1.10 Percentage generation availability margin relative to demand
from 1 July 2005 15
1.11 Relationship between percentage of Great Britain peak demand
and overall percentage hourly wind plant load factor 16
1.12 Probability distribution of total Great Britain wind power
generation from 7600MW of dispersed wind turbines 17
1.13 Probability distributions of total generation capacity for
secure supply 19
1.14 Wind capacity credit in Great Britain relative to the National
Grid security of supply standards 21
1.15 Graphs of zero backup capacity separating the regions where
extra backup capacity is not required (left) and backup capacity
is required (right) 25
1.16 Wind generation (TWh) and corresponding wind capacity for
different load factors 25
1.17 Relationship between backup capacity and installed wind
capacity for different ratios of wind load factor to thermal
plant load factor 26
x Renewable Electricity and the Grid
2.1 Outages on the cross-Channel link (two 1000MW circuits) between
England and France 32
2.2 Simple example of how aggregation promotes smoothing 33
2.3 Typical scheduling errors on the network in England and Wales 35
2.4 The smoothing effects of geographical dispersion (the single farm
and the distributed farms both have 1000MW of capacity) 37
2.5 Comparison between the changes in output within an hour
measured on a single wind farm and over the whole of western
Denmark, in the first quarter of 2001 37
2.6 Estimates of the cost of extra balancing needed for wind 40
2.7 Comparison of results from ten utility studies of capacity credit
(note that some made arbitrary assumptions) 44
2.8 Normalized values of capacity credit from three studies of the
National Grid Company (NGC) system 44
2.9 Breakeven wind costs for a range of gas prices 46
2.10 Costs of variability (per unit of wind energy) at high wind
penetrations 49
2.11 The influence of capacity factor on extra reserve costs 50
3.1 Contribution of different renewable resources to total renewable
electricity generation in the UK in 2005 (excludes large-scale
hydro) 57
3.2 Forecast contribution of different renewable resources to total
renewable electricity generation in the UK in 2020 (excludes large-
scale hydro) 57
3.3 Percentage of annual electricity generation by wind, wave and
tidal power systems occurring during each month, with long-
term UK electricity demand distribution shown for comparison
(normalized to account for differing days per month) 59
3.4 Power transform curve for a typical large wind turbine 60
3.5 Relative timing and contribution to renewable output from
individual tidal stream sites in the Channel Isles 62
3.6 Variability of wind and wave power output at the one-hour
time step 62
3.7 Average wind and wave power availability (as capacity factor) at
different levels of demand 63
3.8 Deviation of wind power, wave power and demand from annual
average production (and demand) levels 64
3.9 Distribution of hourly wind power output during peak electricity
demand 64
3.10 Distribution of hourly wave power output during peak electricity
demand 65
3.11 Hour-to-hour variability in demand to be met by conventional
capacity with an increasing proportion of renewable electricity
generation 66
3.12 Impact of 20 per cent of electricity demand met by wind power on
the magnitude and frequency of demand changes to be met by
conventional capacity 66
Renewable Electricity and the Grid xi
3.13 Total capacity implication for a conventional capacity network
and three alternative estimates of the conventional capacity
required due to wind power 70
4.1 Range of findings related to additional reserve requirement with
increasing penetration of intermittent supplies 81
4.2 Range of findings on the cost of additional reserve requirements 83
4.3 Range of findings on capacity credit of intermittent generation 84
5.1 Load and wind power generation for one week in Germany (2003) 96
5.2 Horizontal grid of a global numerical weather prediction model and
enlarged area covered by a local area model 99
5.3 Typical time schedule for wind power forecasting used for
day-ahead trading 102
5.4 Example time series of online measurement and forecasts of wind
power generation in Germany; forecasts with different forecast
horizons are shown 103
5.5 Grid squares used by the Wind Power Management System for
regional upscaling 104
5.6 Sketch of the calculation of the power output of a grid square
and the upscaling mechanism 106
5.7 Example time series of relative forecast error for the individual
control zones of E.ON, V-ET and RWE, and for the whole of
Germany 107
5.8 Example time series of monitored and forecast power output for
Germany 108
5.9 Forecast versus monitored wind power output for Germany;
values are normalized with respect to the installed capacity 108
5.10 Frequency distribution of the difference between forecast and
monitored power output 109
5.11 The graphical user interface of the Wind Power Management
System 111
5.12 Sketch of an artificial neural network (ANN) used for the wind
power forecast 112
5.13 Development of the forecasting error of the operational day-ahead
forecast for a control zone; the root mean square error of the
forecast time series is compared to that of the online monitoring 113
5.14 Comparison of the wind power forecast accuracy for a control zone
using 10m and 100m in height wind speed as the input parameter 114
5.15 Comparison of the mean root mean square error of a wind power
forecast for a group of single wind farms obtained with different
artificial intelligence methods and with a combination of all
methods 115
5.16 Comparison of the root mean square error of a wind power forecast
for Germany obtained with the Wind Power Management System
based on artificial neural networks, with input data from three
different numerical weather prediction models and with a
combination of these models 117
xii Renewable Electricity and the Grid
5.17 Example time series of the forecast power output and its
90 per cent probability interval, compared with the values of
the online monitoring 118
6.1 Schematic of a combined-cycle gas turbine with a horizontal
form of heat recovery steam generator 129
6.2 Vertical heat recovery steam generator arrangement 130
6.3 Temperature changes in the front rows of a heat recovery steam
generator superheater and evaporator 134
6.4 Poor drainage from harp-type exchangers in a horizontal heat
recovery steam generator 135
6.5 Types of superheater 135
6.6 Carbon capture coal to electricity and SNG 139
8.1 UK National Grid demand during the total solar eclipse,
11 August 1999 151
9.1 Scenario context: Decreasing dwelling heat-loss factors 160
9.2 Scenario context: Current dwelling monthly heat demands 161
9.3 Scenario context: Insulated dwelling monthly heat demands 161
9.4 Matching without load management: A winter and summer s day 169
9.5 Matching with load management: A winter and summer s day 169
9.6 Generator capacities 171
9.7 Breakdown of annualized component costs 172
9.8 Sample winter s day: Variable supply excess 175
9.9 Sample winter s day: Variable supply deficit 176
9.10 Annual sample: Demands 177
9.11 Annual sample: Generation 177
9.12 Annual sample: Storage 177
10.1 Typical wind patterns over North-West Europe 182
10.2 Wind patterns over the Mediterranean region 183
10.3 Correlation coefficient for every pair of stations at lag = 0 hours 184
10.4 Relative standard deviation of the time series resulting from
combining all available stations ( farms ) within a circle of
radius R around any one station 185
10.5 European generation according to reanalysis data: Every single
time series corresponds to one year, while the average is the
average at every time step of the 34 years 187
10.6 The changes in six-hourly output from one wind farm and a
distribution of six wind farms 189
10.7 A typical 24-hour (ahead) wind power forecast and die
corresponding actual generation 190
10.8 The Supergrid concept 194
10.9 The UK, with and without the North Sea 196
10.10 The Netherlands, with and without the North Sea 197
10.11 Germany, with and without the North Sea 197
11.1 Operation of the Dynamic Demand concept 206
11.2 Impact of Dynamic Demand control (DDC) on grid frequency
with 13.8GW of wind capacity 206
Renewable Electricity and the Grid xiii
11.3 Hour-by-hour variation in renewable energy generation over one year,
compared with variations in energy requirements 208
Tables
1.1 Renewable energy sources for electrical power generation 2
1.2 Winter anticyclone conditions on Wednesday, 28 December 2005,
at 18:00 GMT 9
1.3 High electricity demand growth scenarios considered for Great
Britain with various penetration levels of wind energy by 2020 20
3.1 Relative variability of wind, wave and tidal resources over
different time periods 59
4.1 Relationship between capacity credit and reliability cost, Great
Britain-relevant capacity credits and system characteristics 86
5.1 Summary of the main advantages and drawbacks of different
approaches for a power output forecast 101
5.2 Main characteristics of the numerical weather prediction (NWP)
models used 116
9.1 Future annual UK electricity demand characteristics 163
9.2 Renewable energy technical and economic potential 165
9.3 Biomass potential 165
9.4 Current UK firm capacity (optional generation) 166
9.5 Annual energy: Technical summary 171
9.6 Annual costs: Economic summary 172
9.7 Optimized system details 173
10.1 Possible offshore development within Europe (2020) 182
10.2 Coordinates for potential offshore wind plants 188
10.3 Load factor distribution 189
10.4 Capital costs 191
10.5 Transmission cases and costs 192
10.6 Total capital costs at load centres per megawatt hour 193
10.7 Three wind power production centres surrounding the
North Sea 195
10.8 Proportions of annual North Sea power allocated to each
country 196
10.9 Frequency of constant power in the UK and The Netherlands 198
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| spelling | Renewable electricity and the grid the challenge of variability ed. by Godfrey Boyle 1. publ. London [u.a.] Earthscan 2007 XXIII, 219 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Elektrizitätsversorgungsnetz (DE-588)4121178-9 gnd rswk-swf Erneuerbare Energien (DE-588)4068598-6 gnd rswk-swf Erneuerbare Energien (DE-588)4068598-6 s Elektrizitätsversorgungsnetz (DE-588)4121178-9 s 1\p DE-604 Boyle, Godfrey edt HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017445633&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Renewable electricity and the grid the challenge of variability Elektrizitätsversorgungsnetz (DE-588)4121178-9 gnd Erneuerbare Energien (DE-588)4068598-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4121178-9 (DE-588)4068598-6 |
| title | Renewable electricity and the grid the challenge of variability |
| title_auth | Renewable electricity and the grid the challenge of variability |
| title_exact_search | Renewable electricity and the grid the challenge of variability |
| title_full | Renewable electricity and the grid the challenge of variability ed. by Godfrey Boyle |
| title_fullStr | Renewable electricity and the grid the challenge of variability ed. by Godfrey Boyle |
| title_full_unstemmed | Renewable electricity and the grid the challenge of variability ed. by Godfrey Boyle |
| title_short | Renewable electricity and the grid |
| title_sort | renewable electricity and the grid the challenge of variability |
| title_sub | the challenge of variability |
| topic | Elektrizitätsversorgungsnetz (DE-588)4121178-9 gnd Erneuerbare Energien (DE-588)4068598-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Elektrizitätsversorgungsnetz Erneuerbare Energien |
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