Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program
Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that Calif...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2007
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research
12831 |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that following Proposition 99 tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per-capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression methods are not appropriate. The methods proposed in this article produce informative inference regardless of the number of available comparison units, the number of available time periods, and whether the data are individual (micro) or aggregate (macro). Software to compute the estimators proposed in this article is available at the authors' web-pages. |
| Beschreibung: | 46 S. graph. Darst. 22 cm |
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| index_date | 2024-07-02T22:41:30Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:25:13Z |
| institution | BVB |
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| spelling | Abadie, Alberto Verfasser (DE-588)129394432 aut Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program Alberto Abadie ; Alexis Diamond ; Jens Hainmueller Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2007 46 S. graph. Darst. 22 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 12831 Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that following Proposition 99 tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per-capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression methods are not appropriate. The methods proposed in this article produce informative inference regardless of the number of available comparison units, the number of available time periods, and whether the data are individual (micro) or aggregate (macro). Software to compute the estimators proposed in this article is available at the authors' web-pages. Diamond, Alexis Verfasser (DE-588)132878860 aut Hainmueller, Jens Verfasser (DE-588)132878887 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.> NBER working paper series 12831 (DE-604)BV002801238 12831 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w12831.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Abadie, Alberto Diamond, Alexis Hainmueller, Jens Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program |
| title | Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program |
| title_auth | Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program |
| title_exact_search | Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program |
| title_full | Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program Alberto Abadie ; Alexis Diamond ; Jens Hainmueller |
| title_fullStr | Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program Alberto Abadie ; Alexis Diamond ; Jens Hainmueller |
| title_full_unstemmed | Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program Alberto Abadie ; Alexis Diamond ; Jens Hainmueller |
| title_short | Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies |
| title_sort | synthetic control methods for comparative case studies estimating the effect of california s tobacco control program |
| title_sub | estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w12831.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
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