Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions
"We construct measures of the annual cost of single-family housing for 46 metropolitan areas in the United States over the last 25 years and compare them with local rents and incomes as a way of judging the level of housing prices. Conventional metrics like the growth rate of house prices, the...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2005
|
| Schriftenreihe: | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series
11643 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | "We construct measures of the annual cost of single-family housing for 46 metropolitan areas in the United States over the last 25 years and compare them with local rents and incomes as a way of judging the level of housing prices. Conventional metrics like the growth rate of house prices, the price-to-rent ratio, and the price-to-income ratio can be misleading because they fail to account both for the time series pattern of real long-term interest rates and predictable differences in the long-run growth rates of house prices across local markets. These factors are especially important in recent years because house prices are theoretically more sensitive to interest rates when rates are already low, and more sensitive still in those cities where the long-run rate of house price growth is high. During the 1980s, our measures show that houses looked most overvalued in many of the same cities that subsequently experienced the largest house price declines. We find that from the trough of 1995 to 2004, the cost of owning rose somewhat relative to the cost of renting, but not, in most cities, to levels that made houses look overvalued"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site. |
| Beschreibung: | 21, [19] S. graph. Darst. |
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| id | DE-604.BV023591692 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T22:41:28Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:25:11Z |
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| language | English |
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| physical | 21, [19] S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2005 |
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| series | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| series2 | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| spelling | Himmelberg, Charles P. Verfasser (DE-588)128971932 aut Assessing high house prices bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions Charles Himmelberg ; Christopher Mayer ; Todd Sinai Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2005 21, [19] S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11643 "We construct measures of the annual cost of single-family housing for 46 metropolitan areas in the United States over the last 25 years and compare them with local rents and incomes as a way of judging the level of housing prices. Conventional metrics like the growth rate of house prices, the price-to-rent ratio, and the price-to-income ratio can be misleading because they fail to account both for the time series pattern of real long-term interest rates and predictable differences in the long-run growth rates of house prices across local markets. These factors are especially important in recent years because house prices are theoretically more sensitive to interest rates when rates are already low, and more sensitive still in those cities where the long-run rate of house price growth is high. During the 1980s, our measures show that houses looked most overvalued in many of the same cities that subsequently experienced the largest house price declines. We find that from the trough of 1995 to 2004, the cost of owning rose somewhat relative to the cost of renting, but not, in most cities, to levels that made houses look overvalued"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site. Ökonometrisches Modell Housing Prices United States Econometric models USA Mayer, Christopher J. Verfasser (DE-588)124082173 aut Sinai, Todd M. Verfasser (DE-588)128551062 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11643 (DE-604)BV002801238 11643 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11643.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Himmelberg, Charles P. Mayer, Christopher J. Sinai, Todd M. Assessing high house prices bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series Ökonometrisches Modell Housing Prices United States Econometric models |
| title | Assessing high house prices bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions |
| title_auth | Assessing high house prices bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions |
| title_exact_search | Assessing high house prices bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Assessing high house prices bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions |
| title_full | Assessing high house prices bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions Charles Himmelberg ; Christopher Mayer ; Todd Sinai |
| title_fullStr | Assessing high house prices bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions Charles Himmelberg ; Christopher Mayer ; Todd Sinai |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing high house prices bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions Charles Himmelberg ; Christopher Mayer ; Todd Sinai |
| title_short | Assessing high house prices |
| title_sort | assessing high house prices bubbles fundamentals and misperceptions |
| title_sub | bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions |
| topic | Ökonometrisches Modell Housing Prices United States Econometric models |
| topic_facet | Ökonometrisches Modell Housing Prices United States Econometric models USA |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11643.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
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