Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction: empirical evidence from state lottery sales
There is a large body of literature in both psychology and economics documenting mistaken perceptions of randomness. In this paper we demonstrate that people appear to believe that "lightning will strike twice" when it comes to lottery jackpots. First, we show that in the week following th...
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| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2005
|
| Schriftenreihe: | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series
11287 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | There is a large body of literature in both psychology and economics documenting mistaken perceptions of randomness. In this paper we demonstrate that people appear to believe that "lightning will strike twice" when it comes to lottery jackpots. First, we show that in the week following the sale of a winning ticket, retailers that sell a winning jackpot ticket experience relative increases in game-specific ticket sales of between 12 and 38 percent, with the sales response increasing in the size of the jackpot. In addition, the increase in sales experienced by the winning vendor increases with the proportion of the local population comprised of high school dropouts, elderly adults, and households receiving public assistance. We further show that this increase in retail-game sales initially reflects an increase in total sales at the retail and zip code level. Second, we show that the increase in sales is persistent at the winning retailer. However, the data no not provide clear evidence that the increase in sales at the zip code level is persistent. It thus appears that in the long run, consumers are persistent in their habit of buying lottery tickets at the "lucky" store; however, as the shock to total gambling dissipates, there is no evidence that lottery gambling itself is habit forming or addictive. |
| Beschreibung: | 62 S. graph. Darst. |
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| 490 | 1 | |a National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |v 11287 | |
| 520 | 3 | |a There is a large body of literature in both psychology and economics documenting mistaken perceptions of randomness. In this paper we demonstrate that people appear to believe that "lightning will strike twice" when it comes to lottery jackpots. First, we show that in the week following the sale of a winning ticket, retailers that sell a winning jackpot ticket experience relative increases in game-specific ticket sales of between 12 and 38 percent, with the sales response increasing in the size of the jackpot. In addition, the increase in sales experienced by the winning vendor increases with the proportion of the local population comprised of high school dropouts, elderly adults, and households receiving public assistance. We further show that this increase in retail-game sales initially reflects an increase in total sales at the retail and zip code level. Second, we show that the increase in sales is persistent at the winning retailer. However, the data no not provide clear evidence that the increase in sales at the zip code level is persistent. It thus appears that in the long run, consumers are persistent in their habit of buying lottery tickets at the "lucky" store; however, as the shock to total gambling dissipates, there is no evidence that lottery gambling itself is habit forming or addictive. | |
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| spelling | Guryan, Jonathan Verfasser (DE-588)124786340 aut Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction empirical evidence from state lottery sales Jonathan Guryan ; Melissa S. Kearney Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2005 62 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11287 There is a large body of literature in both psychology and economics documenting mistaken perceptions of randomness. In this paper we demonstrate that people appear to believe that "lightning will strike twice" when it comes to lottery jackpots. First, we show that in the week following the sale of a winning ticket, retailers that sell a winning jackpot ticket experience relative increases in game-specific ticket sales of between 12 and 38 percent, with the sales response increasing in the size of the jackpot. In addition, the increase in sales experienced by the winning vendor increases with the proportion of the local population comprised of high school dropouts, elderly adults, and households receiving public assistance. We further show that this increase in retail-game sales initially reflects an increase in total sales at the retail and zip code level. Second, we show that the increase in sales is persistent at the winning retailer. However, the data no not provide clear evidence that the increase in sales at the zip code level is persistent. It thus appears that in the long run, consumers are persistent in their habit of buying lottery tickets at the "lucky" store; however, as the shock to total gambling dissipates, there is no evidence that lottery gambling itself is habit forming or addictive. Psychologie Gambling Psychological aspects Lotteries Economic aspects United States Lotteries Psychological aspects USA Kearney, Melissa Schettini 1974- Verfasser (DE-588)124552218 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11287 (DE-604)BV002801238 11287 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11287.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Guryan, Jonathan Kearney, Melissa Schettini 1974- Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction empirical evidence from state lottery sales National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series Psychologie Gambling Psychological aspects Lotteries Economic aspects United States Lotteries Psychological aspects |
| title | Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction empirical evidence from state lottery sales |
| title_auth | Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction empirical evidence from state lottery sales |
| title_exact_search | Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction empirical evidence from state lottery sales |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction empirical evidence from state lottery sales |
| title_full | Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction empirical evidence from state lottery sales Jonathan Guryan ; Melissa S. Kearney |
| title_fullStr | Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction empirical evidence from state lottery sales Jonathan Guryan ; Melissa S. Kearney |
| title_full_unstemmed | Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction empirical evidence from state lottery sales Jonathan Guryan ; Melissa S. Kearney |
| title_short | Lucky stores, gambling, and addiction |
| title_sort | lucky stores gambling and addiction empirical evidence from state lottery sales |
| title_sub | empirical evidence from state lottery sales |
| topic | Psychologie Gambling Psychological aspects Lotteries Economic aspects United States Lotteries Psychological aspects |
| topic_facet | Psychologie Gambling Psychological aspects Lotteries Economic aspects United States Lotteries Psychological aspects USA |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11287.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
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