Productivity and the Euro Dollar exchange rate puzzle:

This paper documents the evidence for a productivity based model of the dollar/euro real exchange rate over the 1985-2001 period. We estimate cointegrating relationships between the real exchange rate, productivity, and the real price of oil using the Johansen (1988) and Stock-Watson (1993) procedur...

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Hauptverfasser: Alquist, Ron (VerfasserIn), Chinn, Menzie David (VerfasserIn)
Format: Buch
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Cambridge, Mass. NBER 2002
Schriftenreihe:Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 8824
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Zusammenfassung:This paper documents the evidence for a productivity based model of the dollar/euro real exchange rate over the 1985-2001 period. We estimate cointegrating relationships between the real exchange rate, productivity, and the real price of oil using the Johansen (1988) and Stock-Watson (1993) procedures. We find that each percentage point in the US-Euro area productivity differential results in a five percentage point real appreciation of the dollar. This finding is robust to the estimation methodology, the variables included in the regression, and the sample period. We conjecture that productivity-based models cannot explain the observed patterns with the standard set of assumptions, and describe a case in which the model can be reconciled with the observed data.
Beschreibung:29 S. graph. Darst 22 cm

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