Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: interim results from the US Country Studies Program
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
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Dordrecht [u.a.]
Kluwer Acad. Publ.
1996
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| Schriftenreihe: | Environmental science and technology library
8 |
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXXV, 366 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 0792341414 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change |b interim results from the US Country Studies Program |c ed. by Joel B. Smith ... |
| 264 | 1 | |a Dordrecht [u.a.] |b Kluwer Acad. Publ. |c 1996 | |
| 300 | |a XXXV, 366 S. |b graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a Environmental science and technology library |v 8 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Klimaänderung | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climatic changes -- Risk assessment | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Smith, Joel B. |4 edt | |
| 830 | 0 | |a Environmental science and technology library |v 8 |w (DE-604)BV035418730 |9 8 | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m HBZ Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016879703&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016879703 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804138211979558912 |
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| adam_text | Contents
Figures ix
Tables xiii
Foreword xix
Acknowledgments xxi
Executive Summary xxiii
1. Introduction 1
2. Methods for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
Introduction 3
Scenarios Methods 8
Agriculture Methods 12
Grasslands/Livestock Methods 16
Forest Methods 18
Water Resources Methods 24
Coastal Resources Methods 29
Fisheries Resources Methods 32
Wildlife Methods 35
Human Health Methods 37
Adaptation Assessments 39
References 42
3. Summary of Results by Vulnerability Sector
Introduction 49
Agriculture 51
Forests 55
Water Resources 59
Coastal Resources 62
Conclusion 66
References 66
iv Contents __
4. Regional Summary
Introduction 69
Summary for the African Region 69
Summary for the Asian-Pacific Region 77
Summary for the Central and Eastern European Region 88
Summary for the Latin American Region 98
Conclusion 104
References 105
5. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for The Gambia
Introduction 109
Scenarios 111
Agriculture Sector 115
Coastal Resources Sector 121
Summary Conclusions 126
References 127
Acknowledgment 128
6. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for
Zimbabwe
Introduction 129
Scenarios 132
Agriculture Sector 134
References 140
7. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for
Bangladesh
Introduction 141
Scenarios 145
Agriculture Sector 151
Grasslands/Livestock Sector 152
Forestry Sector 152
Water Resources Sector 154
Coastal Resources Sector 156
Fisheries Sector 156
Summary Conclusions 157
References 157
Contents _^ v
8. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Kazakhstan
Introduction 161
Scenarios 164
Agriculture Sector 169
Grassland/Livestock Sector 173
Water Resources Sector 176
Summary Conclusions 180
References 180
9. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Mongolia
Introduction 183
Scenarios 185
Agriculture Sector 189
Forestry Sector 194
Water Resources Sector 197
Summary Conclusions 205
References 205
10. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Sri Lanka
Introduction 207
Scenarios 210
Coastal Resources Sector 210
References 223
11. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for the
Czech Republic
Introduction 225
Scenarios 228
Agriculture Sector 232
Forestry Sector 236
Water Resources Sector 241
Summary Conclusions 245
References 245
vj Contents 12. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Estonia
Introduction 249
Scenarios 253
Agriculture Sector 258
Forestry Sector 264
Coastal Resources Sector 268
Summary Conclusions 272
References 272
13. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Poland
Introduction 277
Scenarios 279
Methods Used 285
Results 286
Economic Analyses 290
Discussion and Conclusions 292
References 293
Acknowledgments 294
14. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Slovakia
Introduction 295
Scenarios 297
Agriculture Sector 304
Forestry Sector 306
Water Resources Sector 308
Summary Conclusions 310
References 311
15. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Ukraine
Introduction 313
Scenarios 316
Forestry Sector 321
Water Resources Sector 326
Coastal Resources Sector 331
Summary Conclusions 333
References 333
Contents vii
16. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Peru
Introduction 335
Scenarios 337
Coastal Resources Sector 339
Summary Conclusions 345
References 345
17. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for
Venezuela
Introduction 347
Scenarios 350
Forestry Sector 352
Coastal Resources Sector 355
Summary Conclusions 364
References 365
Figures
S. 1 U.S. Country Studies Program Primary Approach to Climate
Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments xxv
2.1 U.S. Country Studies Program Primary Approach to Climate
Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments 6
2.2 IPCC Seven Steps of Climate Impact Assessment 7
2.3 Flow Diagram for the Agriculture Sector Assessment 13
2.4 Flow Diagram for the Forest Sector Assessment 19
2.5 Holdridge Life Zone Classification Model 21
2.6 Flow Diagram for Water Resources Sector Assessment 26
2.7 Conceptual Framework for Linking Predicted Climate
Changes to Environmental Conditions 28
2.8 IPCC Common Methodology Steps 30
2.9 Adaptation Assessment Steps 41
3.1 Map of Venezuela Showing Holdridge Life Zones 57
4.1 Map of the African Region 70
4.2 Map of the Asian-Pacific Region 78
4.3 Map of the Central and Eastern European Region 89
4.4 Map of the Latin American Region 99
5.1 Map of The Gambia 110
5.2 1 x CO2 Scenarios with 1951 -1990 Average Monthly
Mean Temperature 113
5.3 2 x CO2 Scenarios of Mean Monthly Temperature
of The Gambia in 2075 114
5.4 Model Simulation of Mean Monthly Rainfall
of The Gambia in 2075 114
5.5 Dry Matter Production of Maize at Giroba 117
5.6 Dry Matter Production of Early Millet at Somita 117
5.7 Dry Matter Production of Late Millet at Kuntaur 118
5.8 Dry Matter Production of Groundnuts at Bakendik 119
5.9 Detail of Kombo Peninsula 122
x Figures 6.1 Map of Zimbabwe 130
6.2 Study Sites and Natural Regions of Zimbabwe 131
6.3 Comparison of Instrumental Based Observed Climate
with the CCCM 1 *CO2 Scenario for Beit Bridge 133
7.1 Map of Bangladesh 143
7.2 Comparative Analysis of GCM Model Outputs (1 xCO2)
with Observed Data 147
8.1 Map of Kazakhstan 162
8.2 Map of Kazakhstan s Natural Zones 163
8.3 Kazakhstan s Study Sites 169
9.1 Map of Mongolia 184
9.2 Study Sites for Mongolia s Assessment 186
9.3 Comparison of Monthly Temperatures under a UK89
1 x CO2 Scenario with Current Observations 187
9.4 Comparison of Daily Precipitation under a UK89
1 CO2 Scenario with Current Observations 187
9.5 Comparison of Monthly Temperatures under a UK89
2xCO2 Scenario with Current Observations 188
9.6 Comparison of Daily Precipitation under a UK89
2xCO2 Scenario with Current Observations 188
9.7 Holdridge Life Zones Generated from Historical Climate
Data (1961-1990) 195
9.8 Holdridge Life Zones under 1 xCO2 Scenarios 195
9.9 Holdridge Life Zones under 2xCO2 Scenarios 196
9.10 Observed Discharge Compared to BCM Discharge
for Bogd, Bulgan, and Khalkhgol River Basins 201
9.11 Historical Trend of Monthly Mean Discharge Compared
to BCM Estimated Discharge for the Bogd River 202
9.12 Comparison of Estimated Mean Monthly Runoff for
2xCO2 Scenarios and Observed Data 204
10.1 Map of Sri Lanka 208
10.2 Coastal Erosion and Accretion in Sri Lanka 210
Figures xi
11.1 Map of the Czech Republic 226
11.2 Comparison of GISS and CCCM 2xCO2 Scenarios
to Observed Temperature and Precipitation 231
12.1 Map of Estonia 250
12.2 Map of Estonia Study Sites 252
12.3 Baseline and 1XCO2 Temperature Scenarios at Voru 255
12.4 Baseline and lxCO2 Temperature Scenarios at Sorve 255
12.5 Baseline and 1 CO2 Precipitation Scenarios for Estonia 255
12.6 Baseline and 1 CO2 Solar Radiation Scenarios at TSravere 257
12.7 Baseline and 2 CO2 Temperature Scenarios at Voru 257
12.8 Baseline and 2 CO2 Temperature Scenarios at Sorve 257
12.9 Baseline and 2xCO2 Precipitation Scenarios for Estonia 258
12.10 Baseline and 2xCO2 Solar Radiation Scenarios for Toravere 258
12.11 Schematic Vegetation Maps Comparing 6,000 Years Ago
to Present 262
12.12 Alterations in the Forest Community Structures
at Tudu and Virtsu 267
13.1 Map of Poland 279
13.2 Poland s Coast Split Up into Four Areas 285
14.1 Map of Slovakia 296
14.2 Annual Means of Temperature and April-September
Precipitation Totals at Hurbanovo in 1871 -1994 299
15.1 Map of Ukraine 314
15.2 Comparison of 1 * CO2 GCM Results and CLIM Data for
Precipitation and Temperature 317
15.3 Comparison of 1 x CO2 GCM Results and Ukraine Area
Averages for Precipitation and Temperature 318
15.4 Area of Forest Stands in Each Natural Zone 320
15.5 Distribution of Ukrainian Forests over Holdridge Zones
on the Basis of Observed Data 3 24
15.6 Distribution of Ukrainian Forests over Holdridge Zones
on the Basis of GISS Model 324
15.7 Distribution of Ukrainian Forests over Holdridge Zones
on the Basis of GFD3 Model 325
xii Figures 15.8 Changes in Water Runoff for Gauging Site at Kakhovka
Hydrojunction of Dnieper River 329
15.9 Annual Distribution of Water Runoff for Gauging Site
at Kakhovka Hydrojunction of Dnieper River 3 29
16.1 Map of Peru 336
17.1 Map of Venezuela 348
17.2 Map of Venezuela Showing Holdridge Life Zones
for Present Day and UKMO Scenarios 354
Tables
S. 1 Summary of Countries Contributing to the Interim Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment Synthesis Report xxiv
5.2 Summary of Changes in Agricultural Yields xxvii
5.3 Summary of Forest Impacts xxviii
5.4 Summary of Water Resource Impacts xxx
5.5 Summary of Coastal Resources Impacts xxxii
2.1 Summary of Countries Contributing to the Interim Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment Synthesis Report 4
2.2 Vulnerability and Assessment Technical Advisors 5
2.3 Characteristics of GCMs Distributed to Country Studies
Participants 11
2.4 Summary of Methods for the Assessment of Human Health
Vulnerability 38
3.1 Summary of Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments
by Sector 50
3.2 Summary of Changes in Agricultural Yields 52
3.3 Selected Crop Study Results from EPCC Assessment Report 53
3.4 Summary of Forest Impacts 58
3.5 Summary of Water Resource Impacts 60
3.6 Annual Percent Change in Runoff for the Selected Basins in
Mongolia under Incremental Scenarios 60
3.7 Selected River Basin Summaries from EPCC 61
3.8 Projected Demand for Water in 2075 in Czech Republic 62
3.9 Summary of Coastal Resources Impacts 63
3.10 Sea Level Rise Impacts Reported in Nicholls
and Leatherman (1995) and EPCC 64
4.1 African Countries Contributing to the Interim
Synthesis Report 73
4.2 Asian and Pacific Countries Contributing to the Interim
Synthesis Report 81
4.3 Central and Eastern Europe Countries Contributing
to the Interim Synthesis Report 91
4.4 Latin American Countries Contributing to the Interim
Synthesis Report 101
xiv Tables 5.1 Baseline Climate Scenario of The Gambia 112
5.2 Growth Parameters for Maize at Giroba 116
5.3 Water Balance Parameters for Maize at Giroba 116
5.4 Nitrogen Utilization Parameters for Maize at Giroba 116
5.5 Growth Parameters of Early Millet at Somita 118
5.6 Water Balance Parameters of Early Millet at Somita 118
5.7 Nitrogen Utilization Parameters of Early Millet at Somita 118
5.8 Growth Parameters of Late Millet at Kuntaur 119
5.9 Water Balance Parameters of Late Millet at Kuntaur 119
5.10 Nitrogen Utilization Parameters of Late Millet at Kuntaur 119
5.11 Growth Parameters of Groundnuts at Bakendik 119
5.12 Water Balance Parameters of Groundnuts at Bakendik 120
5.13 Nitrogen Utilization Parameters of Groundnuts at Bakendik 120
5.14 Estimates of Land Loss due to Inundation under Various
Sea Level Rise Scenarios 124
5.15 Land Retreat and Erosion Rate in The Gambia under
the Bruun Rule 124
6.1 Adjustment Statistics for 2xCO2 Climate in Beit Bridge 132
6.2 Baseline Growth in Population 134
6.3 Farm Level Results by Climate Change Scenario and
Adaptation Alternative for Maize Grown at Masvingo 135
6.4 Comparison of Maize Yield under Dryland and Irrigated
Conditions at Masvingo 135
6.5 Aggregation of CCCM Results for Maize 136
6.6 Aggregation ofGFD3 Results for Maize 136
7.1 Estimated Temperature Adjustment Statistics under GF01
1% Transient Scenario 146
7.2 Changes in Temperature and Evaporation for 2030
and 2075 Based on GF01 1% Transient Scenario 147
7.3 Estimated Precipitation Adjustment Statistics under GF01
1% per Year Transient Scenario 148
7.4 Estimated Increase in Precipitation under GF01
1% per Year Transient Scenario 148
7.5 Baseline Growth in Population for B angladesh 149
7.6 Present and Future Population 149
7.7 Baseline Growth in GDP for Bangladesh 150
7.8 Sea Level Rise Scenario for the Three Projection Years 150
Tables xv
8.1 Adjustment Statistics Generated by the GFD3 Scenarios 165
8.2 Adjustment Statistics Generated by the CCCM Scenarios 165
8.3 Adjustment Statistics Generated by the GF01 Scenarios 167
8.4 Adjustment Statistics Generated from PFM and Daily
Weather Data from 1951-1980 for 2010 168
8.5 Predicted GNP Growth 168
8.6 Predicted Population Growth 168
8.7 Aggregation of CERES-Wheat Vulnerability Results
for Spring and Winter Wheat 170
8.8 Estimated Change in Spring Wheat Yields under Incremental
Scenarios in West-Kazakhstan Oblast 171
8.9 Aggregation of KazNIGMI Model Wheat Vulnerability
Results under GFD3 Scenario 171
8.10 Characteristics of Selected Intensive Adaptive Measures 173
8.11 Change in Grassland Productivity under GCM Climate
Change Scenarios in the Priaralie Region 175
8.12 Livestock Results by Scenario 176
8.13 Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment for Tobol River Basin 178
8.14 Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment
for Uba/Ulba Watershed 178
8.15 Water Resource Supply in 2075 (km3/yr) Estimated Using
the KazNIGMI Model 179
9.1 Main Socioeconomic Variables 189
9.2 Aggregation of Model Results for Wheat 190
9.3 Spring Wheat Yield Changes by Planting Dates 191
9.4 Spring Wheat Requirements for Nitrogen 192
9.5 Spring Wheat Yields under Different Dates
of Nitrogen Application 192
9.6 Genetic Coefficients of a New Variety of Spring Wheat 193
9.7 Natural Zones Area under 2 CO2 UK89 Scenario 196
9.8 Calibration and Validation Values used in the BCM 200
9.9 Calibration and Validation Values for the Selected Basins 202
9.10 Annual Percent Change in Runoff for the Selected Basins
under Incremental Scenarios 203
9.11 2xCO2 GCM Estimates of Percent Change in River Flow 203
xvi Tables 10.1 Scenarios of Accelerated Sea Level Rise for Sri Lanka 210
10.2 Categories and Subcategories of Beaches and Coasts 212
10.3 Headland Efficiency in Three Coastal Tracts
from Uswetakeyyawa to Tangalla 214
10.4 Landforms and Geomorphological Features along
the Southwest Coast 215
10.5 Classification of the Southwest Coast on the Basis
of Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise 216
10.6 Land Loss of the Southwest Coast due to Erosion 216
10.7 Inundation of Lowlands Adjacent to Marshlands, Lagoons,
and Estuaries on the Southwest Coast 216
10.8 Length of Sand Spits/River Mouth Barriers Lost
due to Erosion 217
10.9 Beach Feeding Capacity of Drainage Systems between
Ambalangoda and Devundara 217
10.10 Major Categories of Land Use on the Southwest Coast 219
11.1 Adjustment Statistics for the GISS Scenario 229
11.2 Adjustment Statistics for the CCCM Scenario 229
11.3 Adjustment Statistics for the Agriculture Assessment 233
11.4 Actual and Calculated Yields of Winter Wheat for 1975-1990 233
11.5 Forest Vegetation Zone Characteristics 23 7
11.6 Climate Change Simulations of the Mean Annual Runoff 243
11.7 Projected Demand for Water in 2075 in the Czech Republic 244
12.1 Probability of Obtaining Various Crop Yields under Current
Climate 259
12.2 Suitability of Soil-Climatic Conditions for Barley
and Herbage Cultivation 264
12.3 Basic Parameters Used to Define Species Attributes
in the Forest Gap Model 265
12.4 Incremental Climate Change Scenarios for Central
and Coastal Estonia 265
12.5 Maximum and Minimum Sea Levels Obtained
by Long-Term Observations in Hiiumaa 269
12.6 Maximum and Minimum Sea Levels Obtained by
Long-Term Observations in Parnu-Ikla Coastal Area 270
12.7 Possible Inundation under a 1.0 m Sea Level Rise 271
Tables xvii
13.1 Mean Sea Level and Mean Sea Level Rise Rate
for 1951-1985 at 10 Stations 280
13.2 Sea Level Rise Assumptions 281
13.3 Contours of Impact Zones for Poland s Climate Change
Coastal Study Area 281
13.4 Impact Zone Inundation and Risk by Scenario for Poland s
Climate Change Coastal Study Area 281
13.5 General Socioeconomic Data for 1995 and 2025 283
13.6 Land-Use Values 284
13.7 Division of Poland s Climate Change Coastal Study Area 285
13.8 Distribution of Land-Use Categories in Impact Zones I, II,
and III for 2100 287
13.9 Population of the Study Area 287
13.10 Poland s Coastal Zone Vulnerability: ASLR1 291
13.11 Poland s Coastal Zone Vulnerability: ASLR2 291
13.12 Poland s Coastal Zone Vulnerability: SLR1 and SLR2 291
13.13 Gross Evaluation of CC Adaptation Strategies
for Areas 1-4 292
14.1 Selected Average Annual Climate Values at the Hurbanovo
Observatory 298
14.2 Deviations of Selected Climatic Means of 1988-1994 Period
from 1901-1980 300
14.3 Deviations of Preliminary Mean Monthly Analogues Climate
Change Scenarios for 2025 from 1951 -1980 3 02
14.4 Mean Monthly Precipitation Totals for 1951-1980 and
Adjustment Statistics from 2xCO2 GCM Scenarios 303
14.5 Mean Monthly Temperature for 1951 -1980 and Adjustment
Statistics from 2xCO2 GCM Scenarios 303
14.6 GDP in Slovakia by Sector (1991) 304
15.1 Adjustment Statistics for the Difference between 2 * CO2
and Current (1 xCO2) GCM Scenarios 319
15.2 Adjustment Statistics for the GF01 General Circulation
Model and Daily Weather Data from 1951 -1980 319
15.3 Forecast of GDP Growth in Ukraine 320
15.4 Forecast of the Population Growth in Ukraine
for 1990-2075 320
15.5 Estimated Changes in Forested Area Using
the Holdridge Model 322
xviii Tables 15.6 Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment for Dnieper
River Basin 328
15.7 Water Resource Supply and Demand in 2075 in km3/yr
for Dnieper River Basin 330
15.8 Water Resources Vulnerability in 2075 for Dnieper
River Basin 330
15.9 Average Cliff Erosion Rates on Landslide Sites
of the Black Sea 332
16.1 Sea Level Rise Scenarios by 2100 338
16.2 Projected Growth in GNP and Population 338
16.3 Estimated High Tides and Storm Surges for Study Sites
under Two Sea Level Rise Scenarios 341
16.4 Land Loss due to a 1.0 m Sea Level Rise by 2100 342
17.1 Adjustment Statistics for the Difference between 2 x CO2
and Current (1 xCO2) Generated by the GFD3 Model 350
17.2 Transient Scenario from the UKMO Model and Daily
Weather Data from 1951-1980 351
17.3 Baseline Growth in GNP 352
17.4 Baseline Growth in Population 352
17.5 Estimated Area of Current Vegetative Cover 353
17.6 Changes in Vegetative Cover under 2 x CO2 Climate
Change Conditions 353
17.7 Land Area for the Tropical Very Dry Forest Life Zone
under Climate Change Scenarios 355
17.8 Low and High Estimates of Land Loss due to Inundation
and Erosion 360
17.9 Estimated Land Loss due to Inundation and Erosion 360
17.10 Area at Risk of Both Erosion and Inundation
at All Five Study Sites 3 61
17.11 Shoreline Recession by 2100 Using Bruun Rule
and Direct Inundation 361
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Figures ix
Tables xiii
Foreword xix
Acknowledgments xxi
Executive Summary xxiii
1. Introduction 1
2. Methods for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
Introduction 3
Scenarios Methods 8
Agriculture Methods 12
Grasslands/Livestock Methods 16
Forest Methods 18
Water Resources Methods 24
Coastal Resources Methods 29
Fisheries Resources Methods 32
Wildlife Methods 35
Human Health Methods 37
Adaptation Assessments 39
References 42
3. Summary of Results by Vulnerability Sector
Introduction 49
Agriculture 51
Forests 55
Water Resources 59
Coastal Resources 62
Conclusion 66
References 66
iv Contents _
4. Regional Summary
Introduction 69
Summary for the African Region 69
Summary for the Asian-Pacific Region 77
Summary for the Central and Eastern European Region 88
Summary for the Latin American Region 98
Conclusion 104
References 105
5. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for The Gambia
Introduction 109
Scenarios 111
Agriculture Sector 115
Coastal Resources Sector 121
Summary Conclusions 126
References 127
Acknowledgment 128
6. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for
Zimbabwe
Introduction 129
Scenarios 132
Agriculture Sector 134
References 140
7. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for
Bangladesh
Introduction 141
Scenarios 145
Agriculture Sector 151
Grasslands/Livestock Sector 152
Forestry Sector 152
Water Resources Sector 154
Coastal Resources Sector 156
Fisheries Sector 156
Summary Conclusions 157
References 157
Contents _^ v
8. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Kazakhstan
Introduction 161
Scenarios 164
Agriculture Sector 169
Grassland/Livestock Sector 173
Water Resources Sector 176
Summary Conclusions 180
References 180
9. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Mongolia
Introduction 183
Scenarios 185
Agriculture Sector 189
Forestry Sector 194
Water Resources Sector 197
Summary Conclusions 205
References 205
10. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Sri Lanka
Introduction 207
Scenarios 210
Coastal Resources Sector 210
References 223
11. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for the
Czech Republic
Introduction 225
Scenarios 228
Agriculture Sector 232
Forestry Sector 236
Water Resources Sector 241
Summary Conclusions 245
References 245
vj Contents 12. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Estonia
Introduction 249
Scenarios 253
Agriculture Sector 258
Forestry Sector 264
Coastal Resources Sector 268
Summary Conclusions 272
References 272
13. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Poland
Introduction 277
Scenarios 279
Methods Used 285
Results 286
Economic Analyses 290
Discussion and Conclusions 292
References 293
Acknowledgments 294
14. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Slovakia
Introduction 295
Scenarios 297
Agriculture Sector 304
Forestry Sector 306
Water Resources Sector 308
Summary Conclusions 310
References 311
15. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Ukraine
Introduction 313
Scenarios 316
Forestry Sector 321
Water Resources Sector 326
Coastal Resources Sector 331
Summary Conclusions 333
References 333
Contents vii
16. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Peru
Introduction 335
Scenarios 337
Coastal Resources Sector 339
Summary Conclusions 345
References 345
17. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for
Venezuela
Introduction 347
Scenarios 350
Forestry Sector 352
Coastal Resources Sector 355
Summary Conclusions 364
References 365
Figures
S. 1 U.S. Country Studies Program Primary Approach to Climate
Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments xxv
2.1 U.S. Country Studies Program Primary Approach to Climate
Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments 6
2.2 IPCC Seven Steps of Climate Impact Assessment 7
2.3 Flow Diagram for the Agriculture Sector Assessment 13
2.4 Flow Diagram for the Forest Sector Assessment 19
2.5 Holdridge Life Zone Classification Model 21
2.6 Flow Diagram for Water Resources Sector Assessment 26
2.7 Conceptual Framework for Linking Predicted Climate
Changes to Environmental Conditions 28
2.8 IPCC Common Methodology Steps 30
2.9 Adaptation Assessment Steps 41
3.1 Map of Venezuela Showing Holdridge Life Zones 57
4.1 Map of the African Region 70
4.2 Map of the Asian-Pacific Region 78
4.3 Map of the Central and Eastern European Region 89
4.4 Map of the Latin American Region 99
5.1 Map of The Gambia 110
5.2 1 x CO2 Scenarios with 1951 -1990 Average Monthly
Mean Temperature 113
5.3 2 x CO2 Scenarios of Mean Monthly Temperature
of The Gambia in 2075 114
5.4 Model Simulation of Mean Monthly Rainfall
of The Gambia in 2075 114
5.5 Dry Matter Production of Maize at Giroba 117
5.6 Dry Matter Production of Early Millet at Somita 117
5.7 Dry Matter Production of Late Millet at Kuntaur 118
5.8 Dry Matter Production of Groundnuts at Bakendik 119
5.9 Detail of Kombo Peninsula 122
x Figures 6.1 Map of Zimbabwe 130
6.2 Study Sites and Natural Regions of Zimbabwe 131
6.3 Comparison of Instrumental Based Observed Climate
with the CCCM 1 *CO2 Scenario for Beit Bridge 133
7.1 Map of Bangladesh 143
7.2 Comparative Analysis of GCM Model Outputs (1 xCO2)
with Observed Data 147
8.1 Map of Kazakhstan 162
8.2 Map of Kazakhstan's Natural Zones 163
8.3 Kazakhstan's Study Sites 169
9.1 Map of Mongolia 184
9.2 Study Sites for Mongolia's Assessment 186
9.3 Comparison of Monthly Temperatures under a UK89
1 x CO2 Scenario with Current Observations 187
9.4 Comparison of Daily Precipitation under a UK89
1 CO2 Scenario with Current Observations 187
9.5 Comparison of Monthly Temperatures under a UK89
2xCO2 Scenario with Current Observations 188
9.6 Comparison of Daily Precipitation under a UK89
2xCO2 Scenario with Current Observations 188
9.7 Holdridge Life Zones Generated from Historical Climate
Data (1961-1990) 195
9.8 Holdridge Life Zones under 1 xCO2 Scenarios 195
9.9 Holdridge Life Zones under 2xCO2 Scenarios 196
9.10 Observed Discharge Compared to BCM Discharge
for Bogd, Bulgan, and Khalkhgol River Basins 201
9.11 Historical Trend of Monthly Mean Discharge Compared
to BCM Estimated Discharge for the Bogd River 202
9.12 Comparison of Estimated Mean Monthly Runoff for
2xCO2 Scenarios and Observed Data 204
10.1 Map of Sri Lanka 208
10.2 Coastal Erosion and Accretion in Sri Lanka 210
Figures xi
11.1 Map of the Czech Republic 226
11.2 Comparison of GISS and CCCM 2xCO2 Scenarios
to Observed Temperature and Precipitation 231
12.1 Map of Estonia 250
12.2 Map of Estonia Study Sites 252
12.3 Baseline and 1XCO2 Temperature Scenarios at Voru 255
12.4 Baseline and lxCO2 Temperature Scenarios at Sorve 255
12.5 Baseline and 1 CO2 Precipitation Scenarios for Estonia 255
12.6 Baseline and 1 CO2 Solar Radiation Scenarios at TSravere 257
12.7 Baseline and 2 CO2 Temperature Scenarios at Voru 257
12.8 Baseline and 2 CO2 Temperature Scenarios at Sorve 257
12.9 Baseline and 2xCO2 Precipitation Scenarios for Estonia 258
12.10 Baseline and 2xCO2 Solar Radiation Scenarios for Toravere 258
12.11 Schematic Vegetation Maps Comparing 6,000 Years Ago
to Present 262
12.12 Alterations in the Forest Community Structures
at Tudu and Virtsu 267
13.1 Map of Poland 279
13.2 Poland's Coast Split Up into Four Areas 285
14.1 Map of Slovakia 296
14.2 Annual Means of Temperature and April-September
Precipitation Totals at Hurbanovo in 1871 -1994 299
15.1 Map of Ukraine 314
15.2 Comparison of 1 * CO2 GCM Results and CLIM Data for
Precipitation and Temperature 317
15.3 Comparison of 1 x CO2 GCM Results and Ukraine Area
Averages for Precipitation and Temperature 318
15.4 Area of Forest Stands in Each Natural Zone 320
15.5 Distribution of Ukrainian Forests over Holdridge Zones
on the Basis of Observed Data 3 24
15.6 Distribution of Ukrainian Forests over Holdridge Zones
on the Basis of GISS Model 324
15.7 Distribution of Ukrainian Forests over Holdridge Zones
on the Basis of GFD3 Model 325
xii Figures 15.8 Changes in Water Runoff for Gauging Site at Kakhovka
Hydrojunction of Dnieper River 329
15.9 Annual Distribution of Water Runoff for Gauging Site
at Kakhovka Hydrojunction of Dnieper River 3 29
16.1 Map of Peru 336
17.1 Map of Venezuela 348
17.2 Map of Venezuela Showing Holdridge Life Zones
for Present Day and UKMO Scenarios 354
Tables
S. 1 Summary of Countries Contributing to the Interim Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment Synthesis Report xxiv
5.2 Summary of Changes in Agricultural Yields xxvii
5.3 Summary of Forest Impacts xxviii
5.4 Summary of Water Resource Impacts xxx
5.5 Summary of Coastal Resources Impacts xxxii
2.1 Summary of Countries Contributing to the Interim Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment Synthesis Report 4
2.2 Vulnerability and Assessment Technical Advisors 5
2.3 Characteristics of GCMs Distributed to Country Studies
Participants 11
2.4 Summary of Methods for the Assessment of Human Health
Vulnerability 38
3.1 Summary of Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments
by Sector 50
3.2 Summary of Changes in Agricultural Yields 52
3.3 Selected Crop Study Results from EPCC Assessment Report 53
3.4 Summary of Forest Impacts 58
3.5 Summary of Water Resource Impacts 60
3.6 Annual Percent Change in Runoff for the Selected Basins in
Mongolia under Incremental Scenarios 60
3.7 Selected River Basin Summaries from EPCC 61
3.8 Projected Demand for Water in 2075 in Czech Republic 62
3.9 Summary of Coastal Resources Impacts 63
3.10 Sea Level Rise Impacts Reported in Nicholls
and Leatherman (1995) and EPCC 64
4.1 African Countries Contributing to the Interim
Synthesis Report 73
4.2 Asian and Pacific Countries Contributing to the Interim
Synthesis Report 81
4.3 Central and Eastern Europe Countries Contributing
to the Interim Synthesis Report 91
4.4 Latin American Countries Contributing to the Interim
Synthesis Report 101
xiv Tables 5.1 Baseline Climate Scenario of The Gambia 112
5.2 Growth Parameters for Maize at Giroba 116
5.3 Water Balance Parameters for Maize at Giroba 116
5.4 Nitrogen Utilization Parameters for Maize at Giroba 116
5.5 Growth Parameters of Early Millet at Somita 118
5.6 Water Balance Parameters of Early Millet at Somita 118
5.7 Nitrogen Utilization Parameters of Early Millet at Somita 118
5.8 Growth Parameters of Late Millet at Kuntaur 119
5.9 Water Balance Parameters of Late Millet at Kuntaur 119
5.10 Nitrogen Utilization Parameters of Late Millet at Kuntaur 119
5.11 Growth Parameters of Groundnuts at Bakendik 119
5.12 Water Balance Parameters of Groundnuts at Bakendik 120
5.13 Nitrogen Utilization Parameters of Groundnuts at Bakendik 120
5.14 Estimates of Land Loss due to Inundation under Various
Sea Level Rise Scenarios 124
5.15 Land Retreat and Erosion Rate in The Gambia under
the Bruun Rule 124
6.1 Adjustment Statistics for 2xCO2 Climate in Beit Bridge 132
6.2 Baseline Growth in Population 134
6.3 Farm Level Results by Climate Change Scenario and
Adaptation Alternative for Maize Grown at Masvingo 135
6.4 Comparison of Maize Yield under Dryland and Irrigated
Conditions at Masvingo 135
6.5 Aggregation of CCCM Results for Maize 136
6.6 Aggregation ofGFD3 Results for Maize 136
7.1 Estimated Temperature Adjustment Statistics under GF01
1% Transient Scenario 146
7.2 Changes in Temperature and Evaporation for 2030
and 2075 Based on GF01 1% Transient Scenario 147
7.3 Estimated Precipitation Adjustment Statistics under GF01
1% per Year Transient Scenario 148
7.4 Estimated Increase in Precipitation under GF01
1% per Year Transient Scenario 148
7.5 Baseline Growth in Population for B angladesh 149
7.6 Present and Future Population 149
7.7 Baseline Growth in GDP for Bangladesh 150
7.8 Sea Level Rise Scenario for the Three Projection Years 150
Tables xv
8.1 Adjustment Statistics Generated by the GFD3 Scenarios 165
8.2 Adjustment Statistics Generated by the CCCM Scenarios 165
8.3 Adjustment Statistics Generated by the GF01 Scenarios 167
8.4 Adjustment Statistics Generated from PFM and Daily
Weather Data from 1951-1980 for 2010 168
8.5 Predicted GNP Growth 168
8.6 Predicted Population Growth 168
8.7 Aggregation of CERES-Wheat Vulnerability Results
for Spring and Winter Wheat 170
8.8 Estimated Change in Spring Wheat Yields under Incremental
Scenarios in West-Kazakhstan Oblast 171
8.9 Aggregation of KazNIGMI Model Wheat Vulnerability
Results under GFD3 Scenario 171
8.10 Characteristics of Selected Intensive Adaptive Measures 173
8.11 Change in Grassland Productivity under GCM Climate
Change Scenarios in the Priaralie Region 175
8.12 Livestock Results by Scenario 176
8.13 Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment for Tobol River Basin 178
8.14 Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment
for Uba/Ulba Watershed 178
8.15 Water Resource Supply in 2075 (km3/yr) Estimated Using
the KazNIGMI Model 179
9.1 Main Socioeconomic Variables 189
9.2 Aggregation of Model Results for Wheat 190
9.3 Spring Wheat Yield Changes by Planting Dates 191
9.4 Spring Wheat Requirements for Nitrogen 192
9.5 Spring Wheat Yields under Different Dates
of Nitrogen Application 192
9.6 Genetic Coefficients of a New Variety of Spring Wheat 193
9.7 Natural Zones Area under 2 CO2 UK89 Scenario 196
9.8 Calibration and Validation Values used in the BCM 200
9.9 Calibration and Validation Values for the Selected Basins 202
9.10 Annual Percent Change in Runoff for the Selected Basins
under Incremental Scenarios 203
9.11 2xCO2 GCM Estimates of Percent Change in River Flow 203
xvi Tables 10.1 Scenarios of Accelerated Sea Level Rise for Sri Lanka 210
10.2 Categories and Subcategories of Beaches and Coasts 212
10.3 Headland Efficiency in Three Coastal Tracts
from Uswetakeyyawa to Tangalla 214
10.4 Landforms and Geomorphological Features along
the Southwest Coast 215
10.5 Classification of the Southwest Coast on the Basis
of Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise 216
10.6 Land Loss of the Southwest Coast due to Erosion 216
10.7 Inundation of Lowlands Adjacent to Marshlands, Lagoons,
and Estuaries on the Southwest Coast 216
10.8 Length of Sand Spits/River Mouth Barriers Lost
due to Erosion 217
10.9 Beach Feeding Capacity of Drainage Systems between
Ambalangoda and Devundara 217
10.10 Major Categories of Land Use on the Southwest Coast 219
11.1 Adjustment Statistics for the GISS Scenario 229
11.2 Adjustment Statistics for the CCCM Scenario 229
11.3 Adjustment Statistics for the Agriculture Assessment 233
11.4 Actual and Calculated Yields of Winter Wheat for 1975-1990 233
11.5 Forest Vegetation Zone Characteristics 23 7
11.6 Climate Change Simulations of the Mean Annual Runoff 243
11.7 Projected Demand for Water in 2075 in the Czech Republic 244
12.1 Probability of Obtaining Various Crop Yields under Current
Climate 259
12.2 Suitability of Soil-Climatic Conditions for Barley
and Herbage Cultivation 264
12.3 Basic Parameters Used to Define Species Attributes
in the Forest Gap Model 265
12.4 Incremental Climate Change Scenarios for Central
and Coastal Estonia 265
12.5 Maximum and Minimum Sea Levels Obtained
by Long-Term Observations in Hiiumaa 269
12.6 Maximum and Minimum Sea Levels Obtained by
Long-Term Observations in Parnu-Ikla Coastal Area 270
12.7 Possible Inundation under a 1.0 m Sea Level Rise 271
Tables xvii
13.1 Mean Sea Level and Mean Sea Level Rise Rate
for 1951-1985 at 10 Stations 280
13.2 Sea Level Rise Assumptions 281
13.3 Contours of Impact Zones for Poland's Climate Change
Coastal Study Area 281
13.4 Impact Zone Inundation and Risk by Scenario for Poland's
Climate Change Coastal Study Area 281
13.5 General Socioeconomic Data for 1995 and 2025 283
13.6 Land-Use Values 284
13.7 Division of Poland's Climate Change Coastal Study Area 285
13.8 Distribution of Land-Use Categories in Impact Zones I, II,
and III for 2100 287
13.9 Population of the Study Area 287
13.10 Poland's Coastal Zone Vulnerability: ASLR1 291
13.11 Poland's Coastal Zone Vulnerability: ASLR2 291
13.12 Poland's Coastal Zone Vulnerability: SLR1 and SLR2 291
13.13 Gross Evaluation of CC Adaptation Strategies
for Areas 1-4 292
14.1 Selected Average Annual Climate Values at the Hurbanovo
Observatory 298
14.2 Deviations of Selected Climatic Means of 1988-1994 Period
from 1901-1980 300
14.3 Deviations of Preliminary Mean Monthly Analogues Climate
Change Scenarios for 2025 from 1951 -1980 3 02
14.4 Mean Monthly Precipitation Totals for 1951-1980 and
Adjustment Statistics from 2xCO2 GCM Scenarios 303
14.5 Mean Monthly Temperature for 1951 -1980 and Adjustment
Statistics from 2xCO2 GCM Scenarios 303
14.6 GDP in Slovakia by Sector (1991) 304
15.1 Adjustment Statistics for the Difference between 2 * CO2
and Current (1 xCO2) GCM Scenarios 319
15.2 Adjustment Statistics for the GF01 General Circulation
Model and Daily Weather Data from 1951 -1980 319
15.3 Forecast of GDP Growth in Ukraine 320
15.4 Forecast of the Population Growth in Ukraine
for 1990-2075 320
15.5 Estimated Changes in Forested Area Using
the Holdridge Model 322
xviii Tables 15.6 Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment for Dnieper
River Basin 328
15.7 Water Resource Supply and Demand in 2075 in km3/yr
for Dnieper River Basin 330
15.8 Water Resources Vulnerability in 2075 for Dnieper
River Basin 330
15.9 Average Cliff Erosion Rates on Landslide Sites
of the Black Sea 332
16.1 Sea Level Rise Scenarios by 2100 338
16.2 Projected Growth in GNP and Population 338
16.3 Estimated High Tides and Storm Surges for Study Sites
under Two Sea Level Rise Scenarios 341
16.4 Land Loss due to a 1.0 m Sea Level Rise by 2100 342
17.1 Adjustment Statistics for the Difference between 2 x CO2
and Current (1 xCO2) Generated by the GFD3 Model 350
17.2 Transient Scenario from the UKMO Model and Daily
Weather Data from 1951-1980 351
17.3 Baseline Growth in GNP 352
17.4 Baseline Growth in Population 352
17.5 Estimated Area of Current Vegetative Cover 353
17.6 Changes in Vegetative Cover under 2 x CO2 Climate
Change Conditions 353
17.7 Land Area for the Tropical Very Dry Forest Life Zone
under Climate Change Scenarios 355
17.8 Low and High Estimates of Land Loss due to Inundation
and Erosion 360
17.9 Estimated Land Loss due to Inundation and Erosion 360
17.10 Area at Risk of Both Erosion and Inundation
at All Five Study Sites 3 61
17.11 Shoreline Recession by 2100 Using Bruun Rule
and Direct Inundation 361 |
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| discipline | Allgemeines Soziologie Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Allgemeines Soziologie Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV023563444 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T22:38:17Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:24:35Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0792341414 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016879703 |
| oclc_num | 246629878 |
| open_access_boolean | |
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| owner_facet | DE-521 |
| physical | XXXV, 366 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 1996 |
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| publisher | Kluwer Acad. Publ. |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Environmental science and technology library |
| series2 | Environmental science and technology library |
| spelling | Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change interim results from the US Country Studies Program ed. by Joel B. Smith ... Dordrecht [u.a.] Kluwer Acad. Publ. 1996 XXXV, 366 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Environmental science and technology library 8 Klimaänderung Climatic changes -- Risk assessment Smith, Joel B. edt Environmental science and technology library 8 (DE-604)BV035418730 8 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016879703&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change interim results from the US Country Studies Program Environmental science and technology library Klimaänderung Climatic changes -- Risk assessment |
| title | Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change interim results from the US Country Studies Program |
| title_auth | Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change interim results from the US Country Studies Program |
| title_exact_search | Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change interim results from the US Country Studies Program |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change interim results from the US Country Studies Program |
| title_full | Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change interim results from the US Country Studies Program ed. by Joel B. Smith ... |
| title_fullStr | Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change interim results from the US Country Studies Program ed. by Joel B. Smith ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change interim results from the US Country Studies Program ed. by Joel B. Smith ... |
| title_short | Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change |
| title_sort | vulnerability and adaptation to climate change interim results from the us country studies program |
| title_sub | interim results from the US Country Studies Program |
| topic | Klimaänderung Climatic changes -- Risk assessment |
| topic_facet | Klimaänderung Climatic changes -- Risk assessment |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016879703&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV035418730 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT smithjoelb vulnerabilityandadaptationtoclimatechangeinterimresultsfromtheuscountrystudiesprogram |