Forecasting profit:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boston <<[u.a.]>>
Kluwer
1995
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXIII, 339 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0792394828 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 650 | 4 | |a Profit -- Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Business forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Forecasting -- Methodology | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804138188385550336 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
PAGE No.
Preface:
WHAT, FOR WHOM, WHY, AND HOW xv
1. REPORTING A FORECAST 01
Convincing Strategies 04
Objectives 04
Unfreezing 04
Personality Differences 05
The Experiment 06
Vivid Language 07
Metaphors 08
An Adaptive Audience 13
Argument to Convince 14
The Report as Feedback 18
Positive or Negative? 20
Accuracy 20
Impact 21
Overload 22
Format 23
Groups 25
Planning 25
Summary 26
2. TYPES OF EVIDENCE 29
Multiple Methods 31
Judgmental vs. Quantitative 33
Theory 37
Evidence 39
Discourse 43
Summary 45
Appendix 47
Aside 49
Contents
3. AN HISTORICAL CLASSIFICATION 51
Intuitive Methods 53
Deductive Methods 54
Induction Methods 56
Activist Methods 58
Imaginary Methods 60
Conclusion 61
4. GROUP FORECASTS 63
WorkGroups 64
Optimum Small Group Size 66
Groups vs. Individuals 67
Group Motivation 69
Norms 69
Classic Theories 70
Group Compatibility 75
Role Playing 76
Delphi 79
Hypotheticals or Scenarios 82
5. QUESTION INSTRUMENTS 89
Organization 90
Cover Letters 90
Sample 90
Response Bias 91
The Questions 92
Data Types 94
Ratio Data 94
Nominal Data 94
Rank Data 95
Scale Data 95
Annual Profit Questionnaire 99
Tests 101
Internal and External Validity 102
x
Contents
6. INTERVIEWS 105
Who to Interview 106
Intentions vs. Opinions 106
Concerned Persons 107
Best Experts 108
Unlearning and Anchoring 109
Optimism 112
Interaction Effects 113
The Interview 116
Problems with Human Judgment 118
Availability Bias 119
Confidence 121
Other Biases? 122
Causality 125
The Backlash 128
Beach et al. s comments 129
Appendix 134
7. EXTRAPOLATION 139
Eyeballing 143
Averaging 144
Trend 146
Differencing 147
Exponential Smoothing 150
Curve Fitting 154
Logistic Curve 155
Quadratic Curve 157
General Function Equation 159
Sine Curve 159
Regression against Time 163
Linear 163
Nonlinear 165
ARIMA 167
Markov Chains 168
Accuracy Measures 170
Testing a Forecast 175
Conclusions 177
xi
Contents
8. CAUSAL MODELS 179
Regression 180
Simulations 181
Random Variables 181
Outliers 186
Dichotomous Data 190
Correlation vs. Cause 192
Multicollinearity 192
Multiple Regression 193
Selecting Indep. Variables 196
Other Methods 198
Induction Rules 199
Heuristic Regression 199
Judgmental Coefficients 202
Historic Model vs Forecast Model 202
9. BOOTSTRAPPING AND EXPERT SYSTEMS 205
Bootstrapping 205
Expert Systems 207
10. DETERMINISTIC MODELS 211
Building Deterministic Models 212
Variable Input 213
Group Model Builders 214
Structured but Simple 214
Output 215
Control 216
Limitations of Modeling 217
Learning from the Process 218
11. ECLECTIC METHODS 219
The One Big Model 219
Weights? 222
Information Gathering 225
Appendix 227
xii :
I
Contents
Costs 304
Conclusions 306
Appendix 307
REFERENCES 311
SUBJECT INDEX 335
xiv
Contents
12. BANKRUPTCY FORECASTS 237
Ratios or Bankruptcy? 237
Research Method 240
The Method and Statistics 241
Other Research 244
Conclusion 245
Annotated Bibliography 246
13. PROFIT FORECASTS 259
Accuracy 259
Analysts vs. Managers 262
Predictors of Profit 263
Share Market Information? 264
Analytical Review 266
Conclusion 267
Annotated Bibliography 268
14. DISCLOSURE 283
The Signalling View 284
Marketing the Manager 285
Expectation Adjustment 286
Agency Theory 287
Institutional Theory 287
Contingency Theory 288
Summary of the Theory 289
Some Empirical Evidence 289
Questionnaire Results 290
Cross-Tabs 293
Discussion of Results 295
Conclusions 296
15. EVALUATING A FORECAST 297
Change 297
Acceptable 298
Multiple Simple Methods 299
Forecast Group 301
Input Data 302
xiii
|
| adam_txt |
CONTENTS
PAGE No.
Preface:
WHAT, FOR WHOM, WHY, AND HOW xv
1. REPORTING A FORECAST 01
Convincing Strategies 04
Objectives 04
Unfreezing 04
Personality Differences 05
The Experiment 06
Vivid Language 07
Metaphors 08
An Adaptive Audience 13
Argument to Convince 14
The Report as Feedback 18
Positive or Negative? 20
Accuracy 20
Impact 21
Overload 22
Format 23
Groups 25
Planning 25
Summary 26
2. TYPES OF EVIDENCE 29
Multiple Methods 31
Judgmental vs. Quantitative 33
Theory 37
Evidence 39
Discourse 43
Summary 45
Appendix 47
Aside 49
Contents
3. AN HISTORICAL CLASSIFICATION 51
Intuitive Methods 53
Deductive Methods 54
Induction Methods 56
Activist Methods 58
Imaginary Methods 60
Conclusion 61
4. GROUP FORECASTS 63
WorkGroups 64
Optimum Small Group Size 66
Groups vs. Individuals 67
Group Motivation 69
Norms 69
Classic Theories 70
Group Compatibility 75
Role Playing 76
Delphi 79
Hypotheticals or Scenarios 82
5. QUESTION INSTRUMENTS 89
Organization 90
Cover Letters 90
Sample 90
Response Bias 91
The Questions 92
Data Types 94
Ratio Data 94
Nominal Data 94
Rank Data 95
Scale Data 95
Annual Profit Questionnaire 99
Tests 101
Internal and External Validity 102
x
Contents
6. INTERVIEWS 105
Who to Interview 106
Intentions vs. Opinions 106
Concerned Persons 107
Best Experts 108
Unlearning and Anchoring 109
Optimism 112
Interaction Effects 113
The Interview 116
Problems with Human Judgment 118
Availability Bias 119
Confidence 121
Other Biases? 122
Causality 125
The Backlash 128
Beach et al.'s comments 129
Appendix 134
7. EXTRAPOLATION 139
Eyeballing 143
Averaging 144
Trend 146
Differencing 147
Exponential Smoothing 150
Curve Fitting 154
Logistic Curve 155
Quadratic Curve 157
General Function Equation 159
Sine Curve 159
Regression against Time 163
Linear 163
Nonlinear 165
ARIMA 167
Markov Chains 168
Accuracy Measures 170
Testing a Forecast 175
Conclusions 177
xi
Contents
8. CAUSAL MODELS 179
Regression 180
Simulations 181
Random Variables 181
Outliers 186
Dichotomous Data 190
Correlation vs. Cause 192
Multicollinearity 192
Multiple Regression 193
Selecting Indep. Variables 196
Other Methods 198
Induction Rules 199
Heuristic Regression 199
Judgmental Coefficients 202
Historic Model vs Forecast Model 202
9. BOOTSTRAPPING AND EXPERT SYSTEMS 205
Bootstrapping 205
Expert Systems 207
10. DETERMINISTIC MODELS 211
Building Deterministic Models 212
Variable Input 213
Group Model Builders 214
Structured but Simple 214
Output 215
Control 216
Limitations of Modeling 217
Learning from the Process 218
11. ECLECTIC METHODS 219
The One Big Model 219
Weights? 222
Information Gathering 225
Appendix 227
xii :
I
Contents
Costs 304
Conclusions 306
Appendix 307
REFERENCES 311
SUBJECT INDEX 335
xiv
Contents
12. BANKRUPTCY FORECASTS 237
Ratios or Bankruptcy? 237
Research Method 240
The Method and Statistics 241
Other Research 244
Conclusion 245
Annotated Bibliography 246
13. PROFIT FORECASTS 259
Accuracy 259
Analysts vs. Managers 262
Predictors of Profit 263
Share Market Information? 264
Analytical Review 266
Conclusion 267
Annotated Bibliography 268
14. DISCLOSURE 283
The Signalling View 284
Marketing the Manager 285
Expectation Adjustment 286
Agency Theory 287
Institutional Theory 287
Contingency Theory 288
Summary of the Theory 289
Some Empirical Evidence 289
Questionnaire Results 290
Cross-Tabs 293
Discussion of Results 295
Conclusions 296
15. EVALUATING A FORECAST 297
Change 297
Acceptable 298
Multiple Simple Methods 299
Forecast Group 301
Input Data 302
xiii |
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| title | Forecasting profit |
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