Seeing the forest for the trees: a manager's guide to applying systems thinking
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
London
Brealey
2002
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVIII, 346 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 185788311X |
Internformat
MARC
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804138174157422592 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Acknowledgments w
Foreword xvii
Prologue: What is systems thinking? 1
Systems thinking is a big idea 1
So what is systems thinking all about? 2
Connectedness 3
Why systems must be studied as a whole 5
The systems thinking toolkit 6
The benefits of systems thinking 7
How the book works ft
PART I: TAMING COMPLEXITY 11
1 The systems perspective 12
Systems ] 2
Emergence and self-organization 14
Feedback ]o
Systems thinking 18
On with our journey... 24
2 Carrying the back office rock 25
The story 25
The context 26
The issue 27
A diagrammatic representation 27
Enriching the diagram 30
hat happens as a consequence of error? 31
A nasty vicious circle 31
What else drives the ability to cope? 32
But what about cost? 34
There s still one thing missing... 35
Back to wisdom 38
SEEING THE FOREST FOR THE TREES
3 Quality, creativity, and cutting costs 40
The story 40
The context 41
The picture 41
Another nasty vicious circle 42
What should we do? 43
Who s right? 44
Deciding policy 45
PART II: TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES 49
4 Feedback loops 50
The central role of feedback loops 50
Reinforcing loops 54
Balancing loops 55
Dangles, boundaries, and real systems 57
There are only two types of link—the S and the O 59
Distinguishing between reinforcing loops and balancing loops 59
The two fundamental building blocks 62
The importance of language 63
Are all links always either an S or an O? 64
Fuzzy variables 65
Ss and Os that work in one direction only 66
A final thought 68
5 The engines of growth—and decline 72
Vicious and virtuous circles 72
Vicious and virtuous circles really do have the same structure 73
The engine of growth 74
Patterns of growth 77
Exponential growth becomes very fast 83
Explicit and implicit dangles 85
Boom and bust 87
Reinforcing loops can be linked 94
6 Setting targets, seeking goals 103
More on balancing loops 103
CONTENTS xi
Balancing loops in business 108
Balancing loops are often linked 114
Balancing loops and time delays 117
What is the definition of variance? 121
Time to reflect 125
7 How to draw causal loop diagrams 127
Rule 1: Know your boundaries 127
Rule 2: Start somewhere interesting 128
Rule 3: Ask What does this drive? and What is this driven by? 129
Rule 4: Don t get cluttered 129
Rule 5: Use nouns, not verbs 131
Rule 6: Don t use terms such as increase in or decrease in 132
Rule 7: Don t be afraid of unusual items 133
Rule 8: Do the Ss and the Os as you go along 134
Rule 9: Keep going 134
Rule 10: A good diagram must be recognized as real 135
Rule 11: Don t fall in love with your diagrams 136
Rule 12: No diagram is ever finished 136
PART HI: APPLICATIONS 138
8 Stimulating growth 139
In real life, exponential growth does not go on for ever 139
Breaking through the constraints 146
The growth of urban populations 150
The context 150
The dynamics of population growth 150
Driving economic prosperity 154
Urban growth doesn t go on for ever 155
The final causal loop diagram 160
The moral of this story 161
Don t pedal harder, take the brakes off 162
9 Decisions, teamwork, and leadership 164
The talent problem 164
The senior executive s perspective 166
xii SEEING THE FOREST FOR THE TREES
The star s perspective 169
The perspective of the more junior staff 173
What is the best policy? 174
But that s all so obvious, isn t it? 178
Mental models 180
Teamwork 184
Outsourcing, partnering, and cross-boundary conflict 188
How the world looks to the buyer 189
How the world looks to the contractor 195
Is there a better way? 197
The systems perspective 201
10 Levers, outcomes, and strategy 202
Levers 202
Outcomes 204
How are the levers and the outcomes connected? 205
Levers, outcomes, and systems thinking 209
Levers, outcomes, and loops 209
Connecting the loops 213
The last link 217
What about the other levers? 221
A general business model 223
The big picture 226
Encouraging ambition, vision, and imagination 232
How to be creative 235
Back to levers and outcomes 238
11 Public Policy 240
Systems thinking also applies to matters of public policy 240
Back to population 241
What are the consequences of economic activity? 243
What is the structure of this system and how does it behave? 244
Gaia 247
Global wanning 251
Linking the loops together 256
The impact of storms 260
The four horsemen ride again 263
CONTENTS xiii
This goes way beyond global warming 263
What should we do? 266
PART IV: HOW TO BUILD A LABORATORY OF THE FUTURE 271
12 Turbo-charging your systems thinking 272
System dynamics 273
System dynamics and spreadsheets 274
Stocks and flows 278
Stocks and flows in business 281
Two more unifying concepts 286
Causal loop diagrams and plumbing diagrams 287
Modeling in ithink 292
13 Modeling business growth 302
A business example 302
Fuzzy variables 10
Models for answers, models for learning 312
Managing the marketing mix 316
What policies would you invoke to optimize the business? 326
Is the 80:20 split the best deal? 328
Epilogue: Complexity tamed 332
Bibliography 333
Websites 338
Software 339
Index 340
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Acknowledgments w
Foreword xvii
Prologue: What is systems thinking? 1
Systems thinking is a big idea 1
So what is systems thinking all about? 2
Connectedness 3
Why systems must be studied as a whole 5
The systems thinking toolkit 6
The benefits of systems thinking 7
How the book works ft
PART I: TAMING COMPLEXITY 11
1 The systems perspective 12
Systems ] 2
Emergence and self-organization 14
Feedback ]o
Systems thinking 18
On with our journey. 24
2 Carrying the back office rock 25
The story 25
The context 26
The issue 27
A diagrammatic representation 27
Enriching the diagram 30
"'hat happens as a consequence of error? 31
A nasty vicious circle 31
What else drives the ability to cope? 32
But what about cost? 34
There's still one thing missing. 35
Back to wisdom 38
SEEING THE FOREST FOR THE TREES
3 Quality, creativity, and cutting costs 40
The story 40
The context 41
The picture 41
Another nasty vicious circle 42
What should we do? 43
Who's right? 44
Deciding policy 45
PART II: TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES 49
4 Feedback loops 50
The central role of feedback loops 50
Reinforcing loops 54
Balancing loops 55
Dangles, boundaries, and real systems 57
There are only two types of link—the S and the O 59
Distinguishing between reinforcing loops and balancing loops 59
The two fundamental building blocks 62
The importance of language 63
Are all links always either an S or an O? 64
Fuzzy variables 65
Ss and Os that work in one direction only 66
A final thought 68
5 The engines of growth—and decline 72
Vicious and virtuous circles 72
Vicious and virtuous circles really do have the same structure 73
The engine of growth 74
Patterns of growth 77
Exponential growth becomes very fast 83
Explicit and implicit dangles 85
Boom and bust 87
Reinforcing loops can be linked 94
6 Setting targets, seeking goals 103
More on balancing loops 103
CONTENTS xi
Balancing loops in business 108
Balancing loops are often linked 114
Balancing loops and time delays 117
What is the definition of variance? 121
Time to reflect 125
7 How to draw causal loop diagrams 127
Rule 1: Know your boundaries 127
Rule 2: Start somewhere interesting 128
Rule 3: Ask "What does this drive?" and "What is this driven by?" 129
Rule 4: Don't get cluttered 129
Rule 5: Use nouns, not verbs 131
Rule 6: Don't use terms such as "increase in" or "decrease in" 132
Rule 7: Don't be afraid of unusual items 133
Rule 8: Do the Ss and the Os as you go along 134
Rule 9: Keep going 134
Rule 10: A good diagram must be recognized as real 135
Rule 11: Don't fall in love with your diagrams 136
Rule 12: No diagram is ever "finished" 136
PART HI: APPLICATIONS 138
8 Stimulating growth 139
In real life, exponential growth does not go on for ever 139
Breaking through the constraints 146
The growth of urban populations 150
The context 150
The dynamics of population growth 150
Driving economic prosperity 154
Urban growth doesn't go on for ever 155
The final causal loop diagram 160
The moral of this story 161
Don't pedal harder, take the brakes off 162
9 Decisions, teamwork, and leadership 164
The talent problem 164
The senior executive's perspective 166
xii SEEING THE FOREST FOR THE TREES
The star's perspective 169
The perspective of the more junior staff 173
What is the best policy? 174
But that's all so obvious, isn't it? 178
Mental models 180
Teamwork 184
Outsourcing, partnering, and cross-boundary conflict 188
How the world looks to the buyer 189
How the world looks to the contractor 195
Is there a better way? 197
The systems perspective 201
10 Levers, outcomes, and strategy 202
Levers 202
Outcomes 204
How are the levers and the outcomes connected? 205
Levers, outcomes, and systems thinking 209
Levers, outcomes, and loops 209
Connecting the loops 213
The last link 217
What about the other levers? 221
A general business model 223
The big picture 226
Encouraging ambition, vision, and imagination 232
How to be creative 235
Back to levers and outcomes 238
11 Public Policy 240
Systems thinking also applies to matters of public policy 240
Back to population 241
What are the consequences of economic activity? 243
What is the structure of this system and how does it behave? 244
Gaia 247
Global wanning 251
Linking the loops together 256
The impact of storms 260
The four horsemen ride again 263
CONTENTS xiii
This goes way beyond global warming 263
What should we do? 266
PART IV: HOW TO BUILD A "LABORATORY OF THE FUTURE" 271
12 Turbo-charging your systems thinking 272
System dynamics 273
System dynamics and spreadsheets 274
Stocks and flows 278
Stocks and flows in business 281
Two more unifying concepts 286
Causal loop diagrams and plumbing diagrams 287
Modeling in ithink 292
13 Modeling business growth 302
A business example 302
Fuzzy variables '10
Models for answers, models for learning 312
Managing the marketing mix 316
What policies would you invoke to optimize the business? 326
Is the 80:20 split the best deal? 328
Epilogue: Complexity tamed 332
Bibliography 333
Websites 338
Software 339
Index 340 |
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| subject_GND | (DE-588)4037278-9 (DE-588)4418290-9 |
| title | Seeing the forest for the trees a manager's guide to applying systems thinking |
| title_auth | Seeing the forest for the trees a manager's guide to applying systems thinking |
| title_exact_search | Seeing the forest for the trees a manager's guide to applying systems thinking |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Seeing the forest for the trees a manager's guide to applying systems thinking |
| title_full | Seeing the forest for the trees a manager's guide to applying systems thinking Dennis Sherwood |
| title_fullStr | Seeing the forest for the trees a manager's guide to applying systems thinking Dennis Sherwood |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seeing the forest for the trees a manager's guide to applying systems thinking Dennis Sherwood |
| title_short | Seeing the forest for the trees |
| title_sort | seeing the forest for the trees a manager s guide to applying systems thinking |
| title_sub | a manager's guide to applying systems thinking |
| topic | Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd Systemdenken (DE-588)4418290-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Management Systemdenken |
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