Economic forecasting for management: possibilities and limitations
Gespeichert in:
1. Verfasser: | |
---|---|
Format: | Buch |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Westport, Conn. ; London
Quorum Books
2002
|
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Beschreibung: | Literaturverz. S. 231 - 240 |
Beschreibung: | XIV, 248 S. graph. Darst. 24 cm |
ISBN: | 1567206018 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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adam_text | Contents
Illustrations vii
Preface xi
Part I: Forecasting and Futures Research—An Unequal Pair
1 Fundamentals of Human Behavior 3
2 Dimensions of Forecasting 19
3 Evaluation Criteria 41
4 The Discrepancy between Reality and Forecast 45
5 A Common Language 49
Part II: Long-Term Economic Forecasting
6 Investigation Subject and Aim of Perception 59
7 The Evolution of Economies 65
8 Impossibility of (Long-Term) Forecasting 73
9 Macroeconomic Perspectives 79
10 Methods for Long-Term Forecasting 87
11 Working with Global Models—Learning and Predicting 101
12 Delphi Technique 113
13 Cross-Impact Analysis 117
vi Contents
Part III: Scenarios for Strategy Development
14 Scenarios as a Reflection of Integrated Management 123
15 Scenarios as Instruments of Forecasting 131
16 Working with Scenarios at the Corporate Level 143
17 Introduction of Scenario Thinking in Corporate Policy 149
Part IV: Short-Term Economic and Market Forecasting
18 Investigation Subject and Aim of Perception 161
19 Business Cycle Forecasting 171
20 Market Forecasting 187
21 Forecasting on the Basis of Time Series Analyses 193
22 Operating with Growth and Life Cycle Curves 201
23 Forecasts Based on the Theory of Cause and Effect 207
24 Transformation of Market Forecasts into Corporate Decisions 215
25 In Place of Closing Remarks: What Must Be Looked Out for 227
in Economic Forecasting?
Bibliography 231
Index 241
Illustrations
FIGURES
1.1 Schematic Depiction of Information from a Time Perspective 14
1.2 Interrelationships between Normative, Strategic, and Operative
Management 15
1.3 Levels of Economic Activity 16
2.1 Objectives in Economic Policy 20
2.2 Complexity of Systems 22
2.3 The Balance of Predictability and Uncertainty in the Business
Environment 24
2.4 Forecasting Approaches 28
2.5 Information Provided by Different Forecast Types 31
2.6 Types of Forecasting 33
2.7 Environmental Information from a Company s Point of View 34
2.8 A Company in Its Environment 35
2.9 Global Population and GDP in 1995 36
5.1 The Broad Field of Prospectives 52
7.1 Possible Developmental Profiles of a National Economy 67
7.2 Developmental Phases of the Swiss Economy 70
9.1 Factors Determining Productivity of Labor 82
10.1 Structure of a Forecast Based on the Theory of Cause and Effect 88
10.2 Use of Income Side of SNA and Its Determinants 90
10.3 Structure of an Econometric Model 94
viii Illustrations
10.4 Example of a Look-up Table as Found in the Limits to
Growth Study 98
14.1 Feedback Loop of Learning 128
15.1 The Scenario Cone 133
15.2 Space of Possible Scenarios 134
15.3 Structure of a Scenario Analysis 139
15.4 Advantages and Disadvantages of a Baseline Scenario 141
16.1 Systems Thinking Proceeds in Three Phases and Seven Steps 146
17.1 The Use of Scenarios in Strategic Management 152
18.1 Typical Example of a Business Cycle 162
18.2 Output Gap 1985 to 1997 164
18.3 Development of Gross Domestic Product, 1960 to 1997 164
18.4 The Relationship between Business Cycle and Waves of Growth 165
18.5 Basic Model of Cyclical Movement 165
18.6 Impulses That Can Influence Companies and Trigger Cyclical
Movement 166
18.7 Typical Modes of Reaction of Markets in the Business Cycle 168
18.8 Annual Rates of Change of GDP, Building Investments, and
Investments in Machinery and Equipment 168
19.1 The Most Important Methods for Forecasting Business Cycles 172
19.2 Decimal-Point Accuracy Required? 182
21.1 Turnover in Retail Trade: Total Turnover from 1992 to 1996
on a Monthly Basis 195
21.2 Daily Load Curve: Power Consumption of Households 195
21.3 Statistic Curve Lines 196
21.4 Development of the Degree of Swiss Motorization: The
Forecasting Problem in 1975 and 1986 198
21.5 Development of the Degree of Swiss Motorization, 1960-1996 199
22.1 Life Cycle and Growth Curves 202
22.2 Slowdown in Growth of Air Traffic toward the Year 2000 203
22.3 Relationship between Income and Air Travel around 1990 203
22.4 Natural Growth Alternating with States of Chaos 204
23.1 Modeling Approach 211
23.2 Relationship between Degree of Swiss Motorization and
per Capita Real Gross Domestic Product 213
24.1 Crucial Role of Environmental Information in the Corporate
Decision-Making Process 217
24.2 Corporate Management Flooded with Future-Related Information 218
24.3 From Forecast to Corporate Planning 219
24.4 From Economic Forecast to Budget 221
24.5 Who Does What? 223
24.6 Use of Short- and Long-Term Forecasts in a Company 224
Illustrations ix
TABLES
2.1 Subject Areas of Economic Forecasts 30
5.1 Internal and External View 53
14.1 Strategic Planning and Learning Organizations 127
15.1 Scenario Assumptions 140
17.1 Steps for Generating Scenarios 156
19.1 Comparison of Economic Forecasts for 1998 181
20.1 Overview of Forecasting Methods 191
24.1 Set of Data for Assessing the Framework from an Operative
Point of View 216
|
adam_txt |
Contents
Illustrations vii
Preface xi
Part I: Forecasting and Futures Research—An Unequal Pair
1 Fundamentals of Human Behavior 3
2 Dimensions of Forecasting 19
3 Evaluation Criteria 41
4 The Discrepancy between Reality and Forecast 45
5 A Common Language 49
Part II: Long-Term Economic Forecasting
6 Investigation Subject and Aim of Perception 59
7 The Evolution of Economies 65
8 Impossibility of (Long-Term) Forecasting 73
9 Macroeconomic Perspectives 79
10 Methods for Long-Term Forecasting 87
11 Working with Global Models—Learning and Predicting 101
12 Delphi Technique 113
13 Cross-Impact Analysis 117
vi Contents
Part III: Scenarios for Strategy Development
14 Scenarios as a Reflection of Integrated Management 123
15 Scenarios as Instruments of Forecasting 131
16 Working with Scenarios at the Corporate Level 143
17 Introduction of Scenario Thinking in Corporate Policy 149
Part IV: Short-Term Economic and Market Forecasting
18 Investigation Subject and Aim of Perception 161
19 Business Cycle Forecasting 171
20 Market Forecasting 187
21 Forecasting on the Basis of Time Series Analyses 193
22 Operating with Growth and Life Cycle Curves 201
23 Forecasts Based on the Theory of Cause and Effect 207
24 Transformation of Market Forecasts into Corporate Decisions 215
25 In Place of Closing Remarks: What Must Be Looked Out for 227
in Economic Forecasting?
Bibliography 231
Index 241
Illustrations
FIGURES
1.1 Schematic Depiction of Information from a Time Perspective 14
1.2 Interrelationships between Normative, Strategic, and Operative
Management 15
1.3 Levels of Economic Activity 16
2.1 Objectives in Economic Policy 20
2.2 Complexity of Systems 22
2.3 The Balance of Predictability and Uncertainty in the Business
Environment 24
2.4 Forecasting Approaches 28
2.5 Information Provided by Different Forecast Types 31
2.6 Types of Forecasting 33
2.7 Environmental Information from a Company's Point of View 34
2.8 A Company in Its Environment 35
2.9 Global Population and GDP in 1995 36
5.1 The Broad Field of Prospectives 52
7.1 Possible Developmental Profiles of a National Economy 67
7.2 Developmental Phases of the Swiss Economy 70
9.1 Factors Determining Productivity of Labor 82
10.1 Structure of a Forecast Based on the Theory of Cause and Effect 88
10.2 Use of Income Side of SNA and Its Determinants 90
10.3 Structure of an Econometric Model 94
viii Illustrations
10.4 Example of a 'Look-up Table' as Found in the 'Limits to
Growth' Study 98
14.1 Feedback Loop of Learning 128
15.1 The Scenario Cone 133
15.2 Space of Possible Scenarios 134
15.3 Structure of a Scenario Analysis 139
15.4 Advantages and Disadvantages of a Baseline Scenario 141
16.1 Systems Thinking Proceeds in Three Phases and Seven Steps 146
17.1 The Use of Scenarios in Strategic Management 152
18.1 Typical Example of a Business Cycle 162
18.2 'Output Gap'1985 to 1997 164
18.3 Development of Gross Domestic Product, 1960 to 1997 164
18.4 The Relationship between Business Cycle and Waves of Growth 165
18.5 Basic Model of Cyclical Movement 165
18.6 Impulses That Can Influence Companies and Trigger Cyclical
Movement 166
18.7 Typical Modes of Reaction of Markets in the Business Cycle 168
18.8 Annual Rates of Change of GDP, Building Investments, and
Investments in Machinery and Equipment 168
19.1 The Most Important Methods for Forecasting Business Cycles 172
19.2 Decimal-Point Accuracy Required? 182
21.1 Turnover in Retail Trade: Total Turnover from 1992 to 1996
on a Monthly Basis 195
21.2 Daily Load Curve: Power Consumption of Households 195
21.3 Statistic Curve Lines 196
21.4 Development of the Degree of Swiss Motorization: The
Forecasting Problem in 1975 and 1986 198
21.5 Development of the Degree of Swiss Motorization, 1960-1996 199
22.1 Life Cycle and Growth Curves 202
22.2 Slowdown in Growth of Air Traffic toward the Year 2000 203
22.3 Relationship between Income and Air Travel around 1990 203
22.4 Natural Growth Alternating with States of Chaos 204
23.1 Modeling Approach 211
23.2 Relationship between Degree of Swiss Motorization and
per Capita Real Gross Domestic Product 213
24.1 Crucial Role of Environmental Information in the Corporate
Decision-Making Process 217
24.2 Corporate Management Flooded with Future-Related Information 218
24.3 From Forecast to Corporate Planning 219
24.4 From Economic Forecast to Budget 221
24.5 Who Does What? 223
24.6 Use of Short- and Long-Term Forecasts in a Company 224
Illustrations ix
TABLES
2.1 Subject Areas of Economic Forecasts 30
5.1 Internal and External View 53
14.1 Strategic Planning and Learning Organizations 127
15.1 Scenario Assumptions 140
17.1 Steps for Generating Scenarios 156
19.1 Comparison of Economic Forecasts for 1998 181
20.1 Overview of Forecasting Methods 191
24.1 Set of Data for Assessing the Framework from an Operative
Point of View 216 |
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author | Graf, Hans Georg 1938- |
author_GND | (DE-588)12469389X |
author_facet | Graf, Hans Georg 1938- |
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dewey-search | 330/.024/658 21 |
dewey-sort | 3330 224 3658 221 |
dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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illustrated | Illustrated |
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institution | BVB |
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language | English |
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spelling | Graf, Hans Georg 1938- Verfasser (DE-588)12469389X aut Prognosen und Szenarien in der Wirtschaftspraxis Economic forecasting for management possibilities and limitations Hans Georg Graf Westport, Conn. ; London Quorum Books 2002 XIV, 248 S. graph. Darst. 24 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Literaturverz. S. 231 - 240 Managerial economics Economic forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 s 1\p DE-604 Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 s 2\p DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016847637&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
spellingShingle | Graf, Hans Georg 1938- Economic forecasting for management possibilities and limitations Managerial economics Economic forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4194332-6 (DE-588)4061963-1 (DE-588)4066399-1 |
title | Economic forecasting for management possibilities and limitations |
title_alt | Prognosen und Szenarien in der Wirtschaftspraxis |
title_auth | Economic forecasting for management possibilities and limitations |
title_exact_search | Economic forecasting for management possibilities and limitations |
title_exact_search_txtP | Economic forecasting for management possibilities and limitations |
title_full | Economic forecasting for management possibilities and limitations Hans Georg Graf |
title_fullStr | Economic forecasting for management possibilities and limitations Hans Georg Graf |
title_full_unstemmed | Economic forecasting for management possibilities and limitations Hans Georg Graf |
title_short | Economic forecasting for management |
title_sort | economic forecasting for management possibilities and limitations |
title_sub | possibilities and limitations |
topic | Managerial economics Economic forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
topic_facet | Managerial economics Economic forecasting Prognose Szenario Unternehmen Wirtschaft |
url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016847637&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
work_keys_str_mv | AT grafhansgeorg prognosenundszenarieninderwirtschaftspraxis AT grafhansgeorg economicforecastingformanagementpossibilitiesandlimitations |