Economies in transition and the world economy: models, forecasts and scenarios
Gespeichert in:
| Weitere Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Frankfurt am Main ; Berlin ; Bern ; New York ; Paris ; Wien
Lang
1996
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Literaturangaben |
| Beschreibung: | 527 S. 21 cm |
| ISBN: | 3631493355 082043194X |
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5
LIST
OF
CONTENTS
GENERAL
INTRODUCTION
1.
MODELLING
TRANSITION
ECONOMIES
11
2.
THE
MAJOR
GOALS
AND
RESULTS.
THE
RESEARCH
TEAMS
12
3.
THE
RESEARCH
ACTIVITIES
14
4.
THE
SUMMARY
OF
RESEARCH
RESULTS
15
5.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
19
6.
APPENDIX
1
21
PART
I.
THE
STRUCTURE
OF
THE
QUARTERLY
MODEL
OF
THE
POLISH
ECONOMY
WK94
INTRODUCTION
35
CHAPTER
1.
QUARTERLY
MACROECONOMETRIC
MODELS.
GENERAL
ASSUMPTIONS
OF
THE
MODELS
FOR
THE
PERIOD
OF
TRANSITION
1.1.
INTRODUCTION
41
1.2.
QUARTERLY
MODELS
OF
DEVELOPED
MARKET
ECONOMIES
41
1.3.
QUARTERLY
MODELS
OF
ECONOMIES
IN
TRANSITION
PERIOD
TO
THE
MARKET
ECONOMY.
INTRODUCTORY
REMARKS
43
1.4.
ECONOMIC
MECHANISMS
AND
BEHAVIOUR
OF
ECONOMIC
UNITS
DURING
TRANSITION
PERIOD.
BASIC
HYPOTHESES
46
1.5.
STRUCTURE
OF
A
QUARTERLY
WK
MODEL
OF
THE
POLISH
ECONOMY
48
1.6.
QUARTERLY
MODEL
AS
A
SIMULATION
SYSTEM
51
1.7.
DATABASE
54
1.8.
ESTIMATION
PROBLEMS
DUE
TO
SMALL
SAMPLES
57
1.9.
VALIDATION
AND
USE
OF
THE
MODEL
59
CHAPTER
2.
STRUCTURAL
EQUATIONS
OF
THE
MODEL.
SPECIFICATION
AND
RESULTS
OF
ESTIMATION
2.1.
INTRODUCTION
61
2.2.
FINAL
DEMAND
61
2.3.
EQUATIONS
OF
FOREIGN
TRADE
68
2.4.
DEMAND
FOR
PRODUCTION
AND
VALUE
ADDED
BY
SECTORS
72
2.5.
PERSONAL
INCOMES
AND
EXPENDITURES
OF
HOUSEHOLDS
78
2.6.
FINANCIAL
FLOWS
IN
ENTERPRISES
SECTOR
85
2.7.
ACTIVITIES
OF
BANKS.
ELEMENTS
OF
THE
CAPITAL
AND
MONEY
MARKET
91
2.8.
STATE
BUDGET
97
2.9.
COMPONENTS
OF
THE
BALANCE
OF
PAYMENTS
99
2.10.
PRICES
101
2.11.
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
109
6
REFERENCES
115
APPENDIX
1.2.1.
LIST
OF
VARIABLES
OF
WK94
MODEL
123
APPENDIX
1.2.2.
LIST
OF
STOCHASTIC
EQUATIONS
128
APPENDIX
1.2.3
.
LIST
OF
IDENTITIES
146
PART
N.
QUARTERLY
SIMULATION
SYSTEM
FOR
THE
POLISH
ECONOMY
AND
ITS
PROPERTIES
INTRODUCTION
153
CHAPTER
3.
QUARTERLY
MODEL
AS
A
SIMULATION
SYSTEM
3.1.
INTRODUCTION
155
3.2.
THE
FORMAL
STRUCTURE
OF
THE
WK
QUARTERLY
MODELS
156
3.3.
THE
MAJOR
ECONOMIC
MECHANISMS
AND
THEIR
PATTERNS
AS
REFLECTED
IN
THE
MODEL
167
3.4.
MODEL
AS
A
SYSTEM
OF
INTERRELATED
EQUATIONS
175
3.5.
FIRST
SCENARIO
ANALYSES
205
CHAPTER
4.
THE
QUARTERLY
MODEL
OF
THE
POLISH
ECONOMY
-
FURTHER
DEVELOPMENTS
4
.1.
THE
LAST
WK94
VERSION
OF
THE
QUARTERLY
MODEL
-
SUMMARY
OF
FINDINGS
215
4.2.
DATA
BASE
PROBLEMS
215
4.3.
DESIRABLE
DIRECTIONS
OF
THE
MODEL
RESPECIFICATION
216
4.4.
THE
MODELS
'
USE
IN
POLICY
SIMULATIONS
217
4.5.
THE
FIRST
SHORT-TERM
FORECASTS
218
REFERENCES
225
APPENDIX
II.4.
1.
CROSS
REFERENCE
TABLE
227
APPENDIX
II.4.2.
TYPES
OF
MULTIPLIERS
235
APPENDIX
II.4.3.
MULTIPLIERS
-
SIMULATION
RESULTS
237
PART
III.
ANNUAL
MODEL
OF
THE
POLISH
ECONOMY
-
NEW
ASPECTS
FOR
TRANSITION
PERIOD
INTRODUCTION
253
CHAPTER
5.
W5
MODEL
AND
THE
POLISH
ECONOMY
IN
TRANSITION
5.1.
INTRODUCTION
255
5.2.
THE
MACROECONOMETRIC
MODEL
W5
OF
THE
POLISH
ECONOMY
259
5.3.
THE
MODEL
'
S
VALIDATION.
THE
APPROACH
USED
IN
STUDYING
THE
STABILITY
OF
MODEL
'
S
PARAMETERS
OUTSIDE
THE
SAMPLE
PERIOD
261
5.4.
THE
ACCURACY
OF
THE
EX-POST
FORECASTS
AND
THE
STABILITY
OF
MODEL
'
S
PARAMETERS
BETWEEN
1983
-
1988
264
5.5
FINAL
REMARKS
292
7
CHAPTER
6.
THE
NEW
ANNUAL
W10
MODEL
OF
THE
POLISH
ECONOMY.
ASSUMPTIONS
AND
FIRST
EMPIRICAL
RESULTS
6.1.
INTRODUCTION.
ASSUMPTIONS
FOR
THE
TRANSITION
PERIOD
295
6.2.
THE
MAJOR
NEW
TENDENCIES
IN
CONSTRUCTION
OF
ANNUAL
MODELS
FOR
THE
ECONOMIES
IN
TRANSITION
296
6.3.
PRODUCTION
POTENTIAL
300
6.4.
THE
COMMODITY
SUPPLIES
AND
THE
FINAL
AND
INTERMEDIATE
DEMAND
314
6.5.
THE
FINANCIAL
FLOWS
323
6.6.
THE
PRICE
SYSTEM
333
6.7.
FINAL
REMARKS
337
REFERENCES
339
PART
IV.
EXPERIMENTAL
MODELS
FOR
THE
FORMER
CSFR
AND
SLOVAK
ECONOMY
INTRODUCTION
345
CHAPTER
7.
AN
EXPERIMENTAL
ANNUAL
MODEL
OF
THE
CSFR
ECONOMY
WITH
DISAGGREGATED
FOREIGN
TRADE
7.1.
PRELIMINARY
REMARKS
347
7.2.
BRIEF
DESCRIPTION
OF
THE
ANNUAL
MODEL
WITH
DISAGGREGATED
FOREIGN
TRADE
348
7.3.
ECONOMIC
INTERPRETATION
OF
SELECTED
EQUATIONS 349
7.4.
EX-POST
VERIFICATION
OF
THE
MODEL
354
REFERENCES
355
APPENDIX
IV.7.
1.
LIST
OF
VARIABLES
357
APPENDIX
IV.
7.2.
SYSTEM
OF
EQUATIONS
OF
THE
CZECHO-SLOVAK
EXPERIMENTAL
ECONOMETRIC
MODEL
361
CHAPTER
8.
EXPERIMENTAL
ECONOMETRIC
MODEL
OF
THE
SLOVAK
ECONOMY
8.1.
INTRODUCTION
367
8.2.
GENERAL
DESCRIPTION
OF
THE
MODEL
368
8.3.
ECONOMIC
CONTENT
OF
THE
MODEL
369
8.4.
DATA
BASE
AND
SPECIFICATION
OF
THE
MODEL
VARIABLES
371
8.5.
THE
SYSTEM
OF
MODEL
EQUATIONS
372
8.6.
ECONOMIC
INTERPRETATION
OF
THE
SYSTEM
OF
REGRESSION
EQUATIONS
AND
IDENTITIES
372
REFERENCES
381
APPENDIX
IV.
8.1.
LIST
OF
VARIABLES
3
83
APPENDIX
IV.8.2.
MACROMODEL
SR-1
385
8
PART
V.
SMALL
WORLD
ECONOMY
MODELS
AND
RELATED
ISSUES
INTRODUCTION
391
CHAPTER
9.
QUARTERLY
MODELS
OF
THE
WORLD
AND
FRENCH
ECONOMY
9.1.
GENERAL
OVERVIEW
OF
THE
SYSTEM
OF
GAMA
MODELS
393
9.2.
A
SYSTEM
OF
FORECASTING
FINANCIAL
INDICATORS
(PREFIN)
395
9.3.
SYSTEM
PREVAP
397
9.4.
VAR
MODELS
400
9.5.
PROJECT
GAIA.
MODELLING
THE
WORLD
ECONOMY
401
9.6.
THE
MODEL
PROTEE
406
9.7.
ANALYSIS
OF
THE
HOUSEHOLD
CONSUMPTION
413
REFERENCES
417
APPENDIX
V.
9
419
CHAPTER
10.
PRIAMO:
THE
PROMETEIA
INTERNATIONAL
ANNUAL
MODEL
10.1.
INTRODUCTION
425
10.2.
THE
REFERENCE
INTERNATIONAL
TRADE
MODEL
426
10.3.
THE
INTERNATIONAL
TRADE
SUBMODEL
IN
PRIAMO
429
10.4.
DOMESTIC
DEMAND
EQUATIONS
434
10.5.
THE
SUPPLY
SIDE
EQUATIONS
435
10.6.
THE
IMPACT
OF
THE
MONETARY
POLICY
437
10.7.
PROPERTIES
OF
THE
MODEL
438
REFERENCES
443
APPENDIX
V.
10
445
PART
VI.
FORECASTS
AND
SCENARIO
ANALYSES
INTRODUCTION
459
CHAPTER
11.
ANALYSIS
OF
THE
SLOVAK
ECONOMY
DEVELOPMENT
11.1.
INTRODUCTION
461
11.2.
CHANGES
IN
MACROECONOMIC
CHARACTERISTICS
OF
THE
SLOVAK
ECONOMY:
1991
-
1993
461
11.3.
ANALYSIS
BASED
ON
MODEL
SIMULATIONS
AND
DEFINITION
OF
RELEVANT
FACTORS
466
11.4.
ANALYSIS
OF
THE
IMPACT
OF
THE
SELECTED
FACTORS
ON
THE
DEVELOPMENT
OF
MAIN
MACROECONOMIC
VARIABLES
OF
SLOVAK
ECONOMY
IN
1991
AND
1992
468
CHAPTER
12.
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
OF
THE
CSFR:
ESTIMATION
OF
CONSEQUENCES
OF
THE
CZECHO-SLOVAK
DIVORCE
12.1.
INTRODUCTION
475
9
12.2.
THE
POSITION
AND
MUTUAL
RELATIONSHIPS
OF
THE
CZECH
AND
SLOVAK
ECONOMIES
IN
1991-1992
476
12.3.
ESTIMATION
OF
THE
IMPACT
OF
THE
STATE
DIVISION
ON
THE
CZECH
AND
SLOVAK
ECONOMIES
AND
THEIR
SHORT-TERM
FORECAST
478
12.4.
CONCLUSIONS
483
CHAPTER
13.
TRANSFORMATION
AND
ECONOMIC
POLICY
ALTERNATIVES.
SCENARIOS
OF
POLAND
'
S
ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
TO
THE
YEAR
2000
13.1.
INTRODUCTION
485
13.2.
OUTLINE
OF
THE
BASELINE
1993
FORECAST
FOR
THE
YEARS
1993
-
1999
486
13.3.
STAGNATION
AND
RECOVERY
487
13.4.
SCENARIOS
OF
STIMULATING
THE
INVESTMENT
ACTIVITIES
499
13.5.
SCENARIOS
OF
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
510
13.6.
CONCLUSIONS
521
13.7.
EPILOGUE
523
REFERENCES
526 |
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| genre | (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Aufsatzsammlung |
| geographic | Polen Tschechische Republik Poland -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Slovakia -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Czech Republic -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd Slowakei (DE-588)4055297-4 gnd Tschechien (DE-588)4303381-7 gnd Polen (DE-588)4046496-9 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Polen Tschechische Republik Poland -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Slovakia -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Czech Republic -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Osteuropa Slowakei Tschechien |
| id | DE-604.BV023507295 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T22:30:51Z |
| indexdate | 2024-08-18T00:12:43Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 3631493355 082043194X |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016831284 |
| oclc_num | 722205127 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-521 |
| owner_facet | DE-521 |
| physical | 527 S. 21 cm |
| publishDate | 1996 |
| publishDateSearch | 1996 |
| publishDateSort | 1996 |
| publisher | Lang |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios Władisław Welfe (ed.) Frankfurt am Main ; Berlin ; Bern ; New York ; Paris ; Wien Lang 1996 527 S. 21 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Literaturangaben Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd rswk-swf Polen Tschechische Republik Poland -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Slovakia -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Czech Republic -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd rswk-swf Slowakei (DE-588)4055297-4 gnd rswk-swf Tschechien (DE-588)4303381-7 gnd rswk-swf Polen (DE-588)4046496-9 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Tschechien (DE-588)4303381-7 g Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 s Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 s Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 s Polen (DE-588)4046496-9 g Slowakei (DE-588)4055297-4 g DE-604 Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 s 1\p DE-604 2\p DE-604 3\p DE-604 Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 g 4\p DE-604 Welfe, Władysław 1927-2013 (DE-588)110389905 edt DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016831284&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 3\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 4\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4065468-0 (DE-588)4074486-3 (DE-588)4043212-9 (DE-588)4066512-4 (DE-588)4075739-0 (DE-588)4055297-4 (DE-588)4303381-7 (DE-588)4046496-9 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios |
| title_auth | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios |
| title_exact_search | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios |
| title_full | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios Władisław Welfe (ed.) |
| title_fullStr | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios Władisław Welfe (ed.) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios Władisław Welfe (ed.) |
| title_short | Economies in transition and the world economy |
| title_sort | economies in transition and the world economy models forecasts and scenarios |
| title_sub | models, forecasts and scenarios |
| topic | Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Weltwirtschaft Makroökonomisches Modell Wirtschaftsreform Polen Tschechische Republik Poland -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Slovakia -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Czech Republic -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models Osteuropa Slowakei Tschechien Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016831284&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT welfewładysław economiesintransitionandtheworldeconomymodelsforecastsandscenarios |