Verfügbarkeit: Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies

Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies:

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser:	Ziemba, Rachel (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Chichester [u.a.] Wiley 2007
Schriftenreihe:	Wiley finance series
Schlagworte:	International finance Investment analysis Investments, Foreign Risk management Risikomanagement Investitionsentscheidung Weltwirtschaft Kreditmarkt
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Beschreibung:	Literaturverz. S. [299] - 310
Beschreibung:	XVIII, 315 S. Ill., graph. Darst.
ISBN:	9780470319246 0470319240

Internformat

MARC


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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text	Contents Acknowledgements xi Preface xiii About the authors xix PART I INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: USING THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH CRITERION 1 1 Take a chance 3 The colocation of money and math 6 Changing a gamble into an investment 6 2 The capital growth theory of investment 9 Blackjack 12 Commodity trading: Investing in the turn of the year effect with Index Futures 13 3 Betting on unpopular lotto numbers using the Kelly criterion 21 4 Good and bad properties of the Kelly criterion 29 5 Calculating the optimal Kelly fraction 37 How to stay above a given wealth path 37 6 The great investors, their methods and how we evaluate them: Theory 43 The various efficient/inefficient market camps: can you beat the stock market? 43 How do investors and consultants do in all these cases? 47 The importance of getting the mean right 50 7 The Great Investors, a way to evaluate them 53 8 The methods and results of managing top US university endowments 63 vjjj__________________________________________________________Contents PART II INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: HEDGE FUNDS 77 9 Hedge fund concepts and a typical convergence trade: Nikkei put warrant risk arbitrage 79 Gamblers as hedge fund managers 82 A typical convergence trade: the Nikkei put warrant market of 1989-90 85 NSA puts and calls on the Toronto and American stock exchanges, 1989-92 86 10 The recipe for disaster: How to lose money in derivatives 91 Derivative disasters 91 11 Hedge Fund Risk, Disasters and Their Prevention: The Failure of Long Term Capital Management 95 The failure of the top hedge fund team ever assembled 95 12 The imported crash of October 27 and 28, 1997 101 A week on the wild side 101 Postscript 104 13 The 2006 Amaranth Advisors natural gas hedge fund disaster 111 Background 116 The trade and the rogue trader 117 Is learning possible? 118 Possible utility functions of hedge fund traders 119 Winners and losers 120 PART III TOWARDS SCENARIOS: COUNTRY STUDIES 123 14 Letter from Cairo 125 Some challenges: Currency depreciation 126 The challenge in attracting investment 126 Postscript: Riding the petrodollar boom: Is recent growth sustainable? 130 15 Threats, challenges and opportunities of China 131 Costs of development 133 Overseas investment 136 Postscript 142 16 Chinese investment markets: Hedge fund scenario analysis 143 China s economy 144 The effect of Chinese demand for resources 145 Chinese stock markets 145 The share alphabet: Definitions of shares available in mainland Chinese Companies 147 Estimating the returns on the Chinese stock markets: IPOs, ownership and returns 148 Contents________________________________________________________________________________ix How can one participate in this China boom period? 151 The future: Investing in China requires a leap of faith 155 Postscript: Chinese equity markets 156 Postscript on economic growth and development 160 17 Springtime in Buenos Aires: prospects for investment, how deep is the recovery? 161 Devaluation of the Argentine peso 163 Challenges for the financial sector 165 The challenge of promoting long-term value-added production 168 Postscript: The new Kirchner era 168 18 Cyprus: On the outer edge of Europe, in the middle of the Mediterranean 171 US and EU policies towards use of their currencies 172 Cyprus: A model EU student 173 Promoting Trade and Investment Across the Mediterranean: In Whose Interest? 175 Postscript 175 19 Is Iceland s growth spurt threatened by financial vulnerabilities? 177 Amid the strengths, there are issues of concern 180 The current account deficit 181 Debt 182 Inflation 183 The currency and interest rates 184 Financial (in)stability? 187 Predicting GDP, recessions and the stock market 187 Will the stock market crash and would it influence other markets? 189 Prospects for the Future 192 Postscript 192 20 Would a bridge connect Sicily s economy to Europe s heart? 195 Sicily s Economic Challenges 196 Sicily s ties to the Mediterranean region 198 PART IV SCENARIO ANALYSIS: THE STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH TO MANAGING RISK 201 21 Hedge and pension fund risk, disasters and their prevention 203 Fixed mix and strategic asset allocation 204 Stochastic programming models applied to hedge and pension fund problems 206 InnoALM, The Innovest Austrian Pension Fund Financial Planning Model 208 22 Setting the scenario 221 Extreme scenarios 221 23 Hedge fund scenario analysis 229 The effect of interest rates 23° The 2000-2002 crash in the S P500 232 x___________________________________^________________________________Contents The effect of the 2004 presidential election 236 Postscript 240 24 Some approaches for scenario generation and reduction 251 Vector autoregressive models 252 25 Using economic fundamentals to generate scenarios 257 Models to predict relative and absolute asset prices 257 26 Some mathematical approaches for scenario generation and reduction 267 Moment matching 267 The Wasserstein distance minimization approach 273 27 Minimizing the effects of disasters by planning ahead 277 Planning in advance: stage one of a two period stochastic program 277 How much hedging is there against various risks? 278 Some key markets: crude oil, the S P500, short and long term interest rates and bond prices 280 Volatility 283 Future prospects and the 2006 outlook 284 Lessons 284 Appendix The great investors: some useful books 287 William Poundstone 287 Nassim Nicholas Taleb 294 David F. Swensen 294 Closing thoughts 294 Postscript: The Renaissance Medallion Fund 295 Bibliography 299 Index 311
adam_txt	Contents Acknowledgements xi Preface xiii About the authors xix PART I INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: USING THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH CRITERION 1 1 Take a chance 3 The colocation of money and math 6 Changing a gamble into an investment 6 2 The capital growth theory of investment 9 Blackjack 12 Commodity trading: Investing in the turn of the year effect with Index Futures 13 3 Betting on unpopular lotto numbers using the Kelly criterion 21 4 Good and bad properties of the Kelly criterion 29 5 Calculating the optimal Kelly fraction 37 How to stay above a given wealth path 37 6 The great investors, their methods and how we evaluate them: Theory 43 The various efficient/inefficient market camps: can you beat the stock market? 43 How do investors and consultants do in all these cases? 47 The importance of getting the mean right 50 7 The Great Investors, a way to evaluate them 53 8 The methods and results of managing top US university endowments 63 vjjj_Contents PART II INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: HEDGE FUNDS 77 9 Hedge fund concepts and a typical convergence trade: Nikkei put warrant risk arbitrage 79 Gamblers as hedge fund managers 82 A typical convergence trade: the Nikkei put warrant market of 1989-90 85 NSA puts and calls on the Toronto and American stock exchanges, 1989-92 86 10 The recipe for disaster: How to lose money in derivatives 91 Derivative disasters 91 11 Hedge Fund Risk, Disasters and Their Prevention: The Failure of Long Term Capital Management 95 The failure of the top hedge fund team ever assembled 95 12 The imported crash of October 27 and 28, 1997 101 A week on the wild side 101 Postscript 104 13 The 2006 Amaranth Advisors natural gas hedge fund disaster 111 Background 116 The trade and the rogue trader 117 Is learning possible? 118 Possible utility functions of hedge fund traders 119 Winners and losers 120 PART III TOWARDS SCENARIOS: COUNTRY STUDIES 123 14 Letter from Cairo 125 Some challenges: Currency depreciation 126 The challenge in attracting investment 126 Postscript: Riding the petrodollar boom: Is recent growth sustainable? 130 15 Threats, challenges and opportunities of China 131 Costs of development 133 Overseas investment 136 Postscript 142 16 Chinese investment markets: Hedge fund scenario analysis 143 China's economy 144 The effect of Chinese demand for resources 145 Chinese stock markets 145 The share alphabet: Definitions of shares available in mainland Chinese Companies 147 Estimating the returns on the Chinese stock markets: IPOs, ownership and returns 148 Contents_ix How can one participate in this China boom period? 151 The future: Investing in China requires a leap of faith 155 Postscript: Chinese equity markets 156 Postscript on economic growth and development 160 17 Springtime in Buenos Aires: prospects for investment, how deep is the recovery? 161 Devaluation of the Argentine peso 163 Challenges for the financial sector 165 The challenge of promoting long-term value-added production 168 Postscript: The new Kirchner era 168 18 Cyprus: On the outer edge of Europe, in the middle of the Mediterranean 171 US and EU policies towards use of their currencies 172 Cyprus: A model EU student 173 Promoting Trade and Investment Across the Mediterranean: In Whose Interest? 175 Postscript 175 19 Is Iceland's growth spurt threatened by financial vulnerabilities? 177 Amid the strengths, there are issues of concern 180 The current account deficit 181 Debt 182 Inflation 183 The currency and interest rates 184 Financial (in)stability? 187 Predicting GDP, recessions and the stock market 187 Will the stock market crash and would it influence other markets? 189 Prospects for the Future 192 Postscript 192 20 Would a bridge connect Sicily's economy to Europe's heart? 195 Sicily's Economic Challenges 196 Sicily's ties to the Mediterranean region 198 PART IV SCENARIO ANALYSIS: THE STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH TO MANAGING RISK 201 21 Hedge and pension fund risk, disasters and their prevention 203 Fixed mix and strategic asset allocation 204 Stochastic programming models applied to hedge and pension fund problems 206 InnoALM, The Innovest Austrian Pension Fund Financial Planning Model 208 22 Setting the scenario 221 Extreme scenarios 221 23 Hedge fund scenario analysis 229 The effect of interest rates 23° The 2000-2002 crash in the S P500 232 x_^_Contents The effect of the 2004 presidential election 236 Postscript 240 24 Some approaches for scenario generation and reduction 251 Vector autoregressive models 252 25 Using economic fundamentals to generate scenarios 257 Models to predict relative and absolute asset prices 257 26 Some mathematical approaches for scenario generation and reduction 267 Moment matching 267 The Wasserstein distance minimization approach 273 27 Minimizing the effects of disasters by planning ahead 277 Planning in advance: stage one of a two period stochastic program 277 How much hedging is there against various risks? 278 Some key markets: crude oil, the S P500, short and long term interest rates and bond prices 280 Volatility 283 Future prospects and the 2006 outlook 284 Lessons 284 Appendix The great investors: some useful books 287 William Poundstone 287 Nassim Nicholas Taleb 294 David F. Swensen 294 Closing thoughts 294 Postscript: The Renaissance Medallion Fund 295 Bibliography 299 Index 311
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discipline_str_mv	Wirtschaftswissenschaften
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spelling	Ziemba, Rachel Verfasser aut Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies Rachel E. S. Ziemba and William T. Ziemba Chichester [u.a.] Wiley 2007 XVIII, 315 S. Ill., graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wiley finance series Literaturverz. S. [299] - 310 International finance Investment analysis Investments, Foreign Risk management Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Investitionsentscheidung (DE-588)4162244-3 gnd rswk-swf Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd rswk-swf Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 gnd rswk-swf Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 s Investitionsentscheidung (DE-588)4162244-3 s Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 s b DE-604 Ziemba, William T. 1941- Sonstige (DE-588)108488713 oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016566362&sequence=000008&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis
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subject_GND	(DE-588)4121590-4 (DE-588)4162244-3 (DE-588)4065468-0 (DE-588)4073788-3
title	Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies
title_auth	Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies
title_exact_search	Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies
title_exact_search_txtP	Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies
title_full	Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies Rachel E. S. Ziemba and William T. Ziemba
title_fullStr	Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies Rachel E. S. Ziemba and William T. Ziemba
title_full_unstemmed	Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies Rachel E. S. Ziemba and William T. Ziemba
title_short	Scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies
title_sort	scenarios for risk management and global investment strategies
topic	International finance Investment analysis Investments, Foreign Risk management Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Investitionsentscheidung (DE-588)4162244-3 gnd Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 gnd
topic_facet	International finance Investment analysis Investments, Foreign Risk management Risikomanagement Investitionsentscheidung Weltwirtschaft Kreditmarkt
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016566362&sequence=000008&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
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