Verfügbarkeit: Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj

Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj:

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser:	Janeska, Verica (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	Macedonian
Veröffentlicht:	Skopje Univ. "Sv. Kiril i Metodij", Ekonomski Inst. 2001
Schlagworte:	Abwanderung Internationale Migration Sozioökonomischer Wandel Bevölkerungsentwicklung Nordmazedonien
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract
Beschreibung:	PST: Contemporary international migrations, the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia and the socio-economic development. - In kyrill. Schr., mazedon. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache
Beschreibung:	415 S.
ISBN:	9989202001

Internformat

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Datensatz im Suchindex

_version_	1804137711936733184
adam_text	СОДРЖИНА ПРЕДГОВОР .......................................................................................................................11 ВОВЕД ..................................................................................................................................13 ПРВ ДЕЛ: СОВРЕМЕНИТЕ МЕЃУНАРОДНИ МИГРАЦИИ ИРАЗВОЈОТ .....................................................................................19 I ОСНОВНИ ТЕОРЕТСКИ И ЕМПИРИСКИ СОЗНАНИЈА ЗА МЕЃУНАРОДНИТЕ МИГРАЦИИ ................................................................21 1. Дефиниции и извори на податоци за меѓународните миграции ...................21 2. Видови меѓународни миграции ..............................................................................26 3. Некой граѓански и современи економски теории за меѓународните миграции ...................................................................................32 3.1. Граѓански теории за меѓународните миграции.... ........................................34 3.2. Современи економски теории за меѓународните миграции. .....................38 3.2.1. Теорија па рампотежа .............................................................................39 3,2.2.Теорща па асиметричпости - нееднакви ефекти од миграцијата........................................................................................... 40 3.3. Теоретски расправи за алтернативите на меѓународните миграции ......46 4. Основни детерминанти на современите меѓународни миграции на населението и работната сила .......................................................52 4.1. Економски фактори ...........................................................................................53 4.2. Неекономски фактори .......................................................................................59 4.3. Субјективни фактори ........................................................................................64 4.4. Ограничувачки околности ................................................................................65 5. Последици и импликации од меѓународните миграции врз демографскиот и социо-економскиот развој ..............................................67 5.1. Последици и импликации врз демографскиот развој ................................67 5.2. Последици и импликации врз социо-економскиот развој ........................ 71 Ѕ.2.1.3емји па прием .............................................................................................71 5.2.2.3емји na потекло ........................................................................................77 Цитирана литература .................................................................................................87 II МЕЃУНАРОДНИТЕ МИГРАЦИИ И СОЦИО-ЕКОНОМСКИОТ РАЗВОЈ ВО ОДДЕЛНИ РЕГИОНИ ВО СВЕТОТ ...........................................91 1. Меѓународните миграциони движења во Европа .............................................91 1.1. Видови меѓународни миграции во Европа ....................................................91 І.І.І.Работнщи мигранты и членови на кивните семејства .................91 1.1.2.Миграција Исток - Запад ........................................................................96 І.І.З.Беїалци и азиланти ...............................«.................................................101 1.2. Демографски и социо-економски детерминанти на миграционите движења ..............................................................................105 1.3. Демографски, економиш и социјални импликации за земјите на прием и земјите на емиграција .............................................108 1.4. Некой аспекти за регулираіьето, интеграционите процеси и политиките на миграциите ..........................................................120 2. Меѓународните миграции во Северна Америка - САД и Канада ...............124 2.1. Обем и динамика на миграционите движеіьа .............................................124 2.2. Меѓународните миграции и нивните импликации врз демографскиот и социо-економскиот развој ......................................130 2.3. Промени во имиграционата политика .........................................................139 3. Меѓународните миграции во Австралија .........................................................143 3.1. Обем и динамика на имиграционите движења ..........................................144 3.2. Меѓународните миграции и социо-економскиот развој ..........................145 3.3. Основни карактеристики на имиграционата политика ........................... 148 4. Некой аспекти на меѓународните миграции и социо- економскиот развој во другите региони во светот ........................................149 Цитирана литература ...............................................................................................155 ВТОР ДЕЛ: СОВРЕМЕНАТАЕМИГРАЦША ОД РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША И РАЗВО JOT .................157 I ОБЕМ И СТРУКТУРНИ КАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ НА ЕМИГРАЦШАТА ОД РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША .......................159 1. Квантификација на обемот на современите миграции од Република Македонија во странство........................................................... 161 1.1. Миграционите движеіьа во странство од Македонија во нејзините етнички граници .......................................................................161 1.2. Современата емиграција од Република Македонија ................................166 1.3. Апроксимација на вкупниот обем на граѓани на Република Македонија кои заминале во странство ............................172 2. Основни белези на современите емиграциони движења на населението и работната сила .......................................................................178 2.1. ОбеМ и динамика uà Миграциите на населението и работната сила w.«.....:......,,.,.».., ..... ^.............^...........i............................... 178 2.2. Регионални специфичности на емиграционите движен»а ....................... 182 2.3. Структурни карактеристики на миграптите според демографски и социо-економски белези .............................................................................. 192 2.3.1. Структура според йол и старост.»,.. ................................................192 2.3.2.Структура сйоред национална приџадност...»,..,,....».,».,.......,,..... 201 .2.3.3. Структура сйоред образование и квалификации ...и .....................204 2.3.4. Структура сйоред активности и занимањето......... .....................210 ■2.4. Правци lia ДВижење на миграптите .....____ ...............................і.......... ___213 2.5. ВреМетраење на престојот на македонските граѓани во странство ........................................................................................ 219 2.6. Обем, динамика и основни белези на повратниците од странство .......................................................................224 Цитирана литература................................. ..............................................................229 II. ЕМИГРАЦШАТА И СОЦИО-ЕКОНОШЖИОТ РАЗВОЈ НА РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША ......;<·....,................................................. 231 1. Соцйо-економските услови и миграционите движења од Република Македонија во странство ...........................................................231 1.1. ОСНОВНИ детерминанти На современата емиграција .................................231 1.1.1. Општесшвено-економски развој .........................................................231 L 1.2. Демографските движења u просторната разместеност на населението....................: .........................................242 1.1.3. Институционални и вонинсшитуционални Предуслови. ............. 247 1.2. Квантификација на влијанието на некой социо-економски и демографски фактори врз интензйтетот на емиграцијата ..................253 2. Влијанието на емнграционите движења врз социо- економскиот развој на Република Македонија ..............................................261 2.1. Последици и импликации врз демографскиот развој __..........................261 2.1.1.Вкупен пораст на населението и неговата регионална разместеност ......................................................................261 2.1.2.Промени во структурата на населението според пол и старост ..............................................................................265 2.2. Импликации врз економскиот развој ..........................................................270 2.2.1. Импликации врз работната сила и вработеноста ......................270 2.2.2.Имйликации од одливот на високообразовани и високостручни кадри и научници .....................................................275 2.2.3. Девизниот прилив од македонските граѓани во странство и стопанскиот развој...... ...........................................280 Цитирана литература ...............................................................................................292 III. ЕМИГРАЦИОНИТЕ ДВИЖЕЊА И СОЦИО-ЕКОНОМСКИОТ PĄ3BOJ НА ОПШТИНИТЕ БИТОЛА И РЕСЕН .λ-λ....; ............ ......u _____295 1. Особености ва преселничкнте двііжеіьа во странство ......................__........ 296 1.1. Обем и динамика на емиграцијата..... ...........................................................296 1.2. Структурни характеристики на мигрантите - демографски и социо-економски... ............................;...................................299 1.3. Правни на движење, времетраење на престојот и повратни текови .............................................................................................304 2. Некой аспекти на причините за интензивните емиграциони движења .......,............................................................................»......307 3. Демографски и социо-економски последици и импликации од емиграцијата во општините Битола и Ресен.............................. ................310 3.1. Емиграционите движења и демографскиот развој ................................... 310 3.2. Импликации врз економскиот развој ..........................................................316 Цитирана литература ............................................................................................... 325 IV. ЕМИГРАЦШАТА И ИДНИОТ ЄОЦИО- ЕКОНОМСКИ РАЗВОЈ НА РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНИЈА ....................327 1. Потенцијалната миграција и идните миграциони движења во странство .................................................................... 327 2. Емиграцијата и идниот демографски и економскнг развој ........................... 331 3. Претпоставки за намалуваїье на трајните иселуваіьа и интензивирање на повратните текови ...........................................................334 4. Миграциона политика - насоки и мерки.... j... ...................................................338 5. Други неопходни мерки и активности во врска со емиграцијата ...............342 Цитирана литература ............................................................................... ................345 ЗАКЛУЧНИ СОГЛЕДБИ ..............................................................................................347 ПРИЛОЗИ ............................·..............................................................................................363 SUMMARY ...........................................................................................................................391 КОРИСТЕНА ЛИТЕРАТУРА ..........................................:..........................................405 10 SUMMARY The international migrations in the second half of the twentieth century in the world did have a tendency of continued increase. In the recent years, the total amount of international migrants is estimated at about 125 million persons, or 2,0% of the total world population. The considerable intensity of those migratory movements did raise an immense interest of the scientific thought from several scientific disciplines. The results of the research indicated a particular changes in the cognition about the international migrations and the development. The Republic of Macedonia is one of the countries where the emigratory movements in the last four decades have registered continued growth. The subject of this examination is the contemporary international migrations, the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia and the socio-economic development. It arose from the cognition on the changes in the size and the intensity of those movements from our country and the necessity of its observation in the context of the whole international migration streams and trends in the world. By the research in the first part, the essential theoretical and empirical cognition about the contemporary international migrations and the development are encompassed. In the second half, the situ¬ ation in the Republic of Macedonia as a whole and its emigratory areas since 1945 up until now, are analyzed. , The aims of the research are as follows: to have an overview of the changes in the theoretical cognition and the experience concerning the interaction between the international migrations and the development; to identify the dimensions arid the basic characteristics of the contemporary emigration from the Republic of Macedonia - as a total and regionally; to acquire the relevant cognition about the causes, the consequences arid the implications of the emigration on the development of the country; to identify the influence of those migratory movements on the development of the emigratory areas by the samples of the municipalities of Bitola and Resen; to identify the necessary presuppositions to decrease the intensity of the permanent emigrations, to actuate a return streams as well as to stress the inevitability of active migration policy existence. Several relevant statements, conclusions and suggestions arose from the research in this work. 391 Part One I. The Basic Theoretical and Empirical Cognition on the International Migrations > The complexity of the interdependence of the migrations and the socio-economic develop¬ ment is stressing the need make a clear distinction between the different kinds of the international migrations. In that context, from several classifications, the most acceptable is the definition of the economic migration and the refugees. > In the contemporary theoretical discussions on the international migrations and the de¬ velopment, two opposite stands are differentiating for some time, For those who belong to the neoclassical, or the theory of balance, the international migrations have a positive influence on the development of the receiving countries and of the countries of origin and contribute to the increase of the production in the world. According to the theory of assymmetricity, the migrations are widening the differences in the development level. The unsustainability of the neoclassical theory is arising from the substantially changed character of those migratory movements and the obvious irreconcilability of the theory and practice. The cognition about even more limited role of the international migrations as a factor of the development and the decrease of its amount in the future, did initiate the discussions about finding the alternative solutions. There is a common opinion that those alternative solutions are to be primarily sought in the development strategy of open economies, which would ensure a sustainable economic development of the countries of origin and the emigratory pressure decrease. Based on those discussions, three strategies in opening toward the external world distinguish: construction of free industrial zones, free trade, foreign direct investments and the official development aid. The importance of the free industrial zones in actuating the regional development and opening new work places is irrefutable. But they cannot absorb all the excess labour force and secure the integrated development, which is the way to eliminate the causes of the emigration. When great differences in the level of the development exist, the free trade as such could not repre¬ sent an alternative to the migratory movements. So, we estimate that the orientation should be primarily toward the foreign direct investments and the different kinds of financial aid. > The determinants of the international migrations are different and very complex. The research showed that they are primarily caused by the economic factors: the differenc¬ es in the level of economic development; the poverty; the deagrarization processes; the employment and unemployment; the changes in the economic cycles; the differences in the level of wages etc. Of increasing influence are the processes of global economic restructuring and the intensification of the regional economic integrations, which will not decrease the emigratory pressure in the short and medium term. Relatively significant is the influence of some non-economic and subjective factors. Of those, the emphasized influence do have the differences in the demographic development, the migratory pressure and the establishment of the migration networks that are identified as factors of perma- 392 Summary nent preservation of those movements. When the significant migratory pressure exists, the restrictive immigration policies are an essential limiting factor. > The analysis of the theoretical discussions on the influence of the international migra¬ tions on the socio-economic development of the immigratory and the emigratory coun¬ tries showed that the consequences and the implications are numerous, some of them different now than three decades ago. - The influence on the demographic development is reflected on the movement of the total number of citizens and the changes in the components of natural movements, the demographic and socio-economic structure of the population in receiving coun¬ tries and in countries of origin. During its determination in the contemporary condi¬ tions, it is necessary to respect substantially changed demographic context in which those movements are taking place. The result of the recent studies showed that the international migration does not have anymore the redistributive potential of the past. - The implications of the international migrations on the economic development of the receiving countries are positive and are manifested by muMplicating macroeconomic effects on the labour force market, the economic growth, the organization of the production process and technology selection, social net system etc. - As far as the macroeconomic consequences and implications of the emigration are concerned, unquestionable is the favorable influence of the temporary migration, un¬ less the positive effects of the unemployment decrease, the inflow of the foreign currency, the new knowledge acquired by the migrants are to be utilized. The conse¬ quences of the long-term emigration and permanent emigrations are negative be¬ cause of the loss of high-grade human potential. In such circumstances, the socio- economic transformation and surpassing the development problems of the countries of origin are not secured. II. The International Migrations and the Socio-economic Development of Particular Regions in the World ^ As for the experiences about the interaction between the contemporary international migrations and the development, the situation in Europe, U.S.A, Canada and Australia are analyzed in particular. The determination toward those areas, among other things, is because of the prevailing direction of the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia toward those countries. > The available data on the permanent immigration in the U.S.A, Canada and Australia show that the immigration is registering the changes only on the dynamics and the structural characteristics of the immigrants. Between 1965 and 1989, about 18,4 million persons have immigrated into those countries, of which 65,0% in the U.S.A, 20,0% in Canada and 15,0% in Australia. On the contrary, the international migrations in Europe are characterized by very large changes in the kinds, the amount, the intensity and the directions of the movements. Of those, the migrant workers and members of their families, the migration East-West, the asylum seekers and the refugees are singled out. Even it is not easy to determine its volume, the available data is giving a partial notion on the situation and the movements influenced by several demographic, socio-economic, politi¬ cal and other motives. 393 > The consequences and the implications on the demographic development are different. In the receiving countries those are obviously positive. Based on the estimates; by the United Nations, between 1950 and 1989, the contribution of net migration on trie rate of total population increase in the U.S.A. is amounting 23,0%, in Canada - 25?0%, in Aus¬ tralia - 41,0% and in the European countries between 10,0% and 50,0%. Illustrative is the sample of Germany, where after 1970, the source of the total population increase is the immigration. The projections of the future movements show that in those areas, with the immigration in the first half of the 21-th century, the population decrease could be stopped only if the continued acceptance of larger number of immigrants would be allowed. But, the negative effects of significantly low fertility could not even be com¬ pensated in that way. Unlike those countries, in the countries of origin, the direct and indirect effects of the emigration over the population growth are negative. > The influence of the international migrations on the economic development of the re¬ ceiving countries is positive, and is a result of the permanent reassessment of its immi¬ gration policies and the increased selectivity in accepting thé immigrants. The countries of origin did not succeed in fully utilizing the advantages of the temporary emigration. The negative influences are particularly large in the countries where the emigration is happening for many decades and is also characterized by very large outflow of highly ! qualified cadre. That is confirmed by the changes and widening thé differences in the level of development and the standard of living of the population in immigratory and emigratory countries in the observed regions, that happened in last four decades. Part Two I. The Size and the Characteristics of the Contemporary Emigration from the Republic of Macedonia > As for the external migrations of the Republic of Macedonia during longer time frame, the prevailing emigration is typical. Its current territory is traditionally emigratory area for more than one hundred years. > By the analyses made we concluded that the changes in the size and the character of the emigration, since 1945 up until now, are corresponding to the phases of the social and economic development of the country and the changes of the migration policies of the receiving countries. By our opinion, four periods are singled out. - The first one, starting in 1945 up until the beginning of the sixties, is characterized by the intensive emigrations of the Turks . Comparatively small is the number of Mace¬ donians and other citizens that left the country. - The second period -1961-1975, is coinciding with the economic emigration - tempo¬ rary employment abroad and permanent emigrations in the over-the-ocean countries. - In the third period - 1976-1990, there was decreasing employment abroad of the Macedonian citizens, more intensive return of the migrant workers, the juncture of the families of those that stayed, the self-reproduction of the migration contingent and 394 Summary .gradual transformation of the temporary stay abroad into permanent one. The emi¬ gration is again intensified at the end of the eighties. - The time frame since the gain of the independence of the Republic of Macedonia up until now is observed as a separate period, when the largest emigration wave since the start of the economic emigration was encountered. > The analysis of the contemporary emigration from the RepubKc of Macedonia showed that, because of the lack of comprehensive data from the domestic and foreign sources it is very difficult to determine its amount and dynamics. > When quantifying the emigration, it is necessary to have in mind the movements from the different areas of Macedonia within its ethnic boundaries. It is because of the volu¬ me of the emigration into the over-the-ocean countries, of which it is not easy to differen¬ tiate the citizens of the Republic of Macedonia. Based on several approximations the number of Macedonian emigrants from all the parts of Macedonia into the over-the- ocean countries is amounting between 500 and 550 thousand persons. We estimate the share of the migrants from the Republic of Macedonia at about 30,0%. > The quantification of the total number of citizens of the Republic of Macedonia that left the country since 1945 up until now, is based on all available administrative and statisti¬ cal data sources, the approximations of other authors, as well as on the cognition on the size of the net migration. Based on those data, the estimate for different time frames was made. Those estimates showed that between 1945 and 1961, from the Republic of Macedonia left at least 170 thousand persons, in the sixties (1961-1971) - between 95 and 100 thousand, since 1971 up to 1981 - around 70 thousand, and in the time frame 1981-1994 - 140 to 150 thousand persons. ^ In all those approximations of the volume of emigration, the persons that returned in the country and those born abroad were not counted. Because of lack of relevant data, if one assumes that the number of returned persons and the persons born abroad is equal in the whole observed period, then, by our estimate, the total number of citizens that left the Republic of Macedonia since 1945 up until now, would be between 525 and 540 thousand persons. ^ The approximation of the total number of the Macedonian citizens that currently live abroad showed that it is very large, amounting between 320 and 350 thousand persons. It represents between 16,1% and 17,6% of the total population in 1999. With the trans¬ formation of the temporary into permanent movements, as well as with the recent inten¬ sification of the emigration processes, the Republic of Macedonia is permanently losing significant part of its population. ^ The only available data that would be the basis in determining the changes in the size, the regional specifics and the structural characteristics of the population and the labour force emigration, are the census data. Even though its scope is incomplete, the informa¬ tion on the tendencies and some cognition on the changes that happened can be ob¬ tained. From the detailed analysis of that data, several conclusions were done. - The number of migrants is constantly increasing, reaching in 1994 an amount of 173.611 persons. The share of the migrants from the rural areas is prevailing, even with the significant increase of the emigration from the urban areas. 395 -, Between 1971 and 1994, the share of the family members in the total migration contingent increased from 3,6% to 49,5%, It is indicating that the temporary emigra¬ tion is gradually transforming into permanent one. - One of the characteristics of the emigration is emphasized regional differences. Ac¬ cording to the share of the migrants in the total population, two groups of emigratory municipalities are isolated. The first one - Resen (26,3 %) and Bitola (25,4%) and the second one - Demir Hisar, Ohrid, Struga, Tetovo, Gostivar and Kitchevo, where this share ranges between 10,6% and 19,6%. In the 1981-1994 time frame, in 17 municipa¬ lities the increase of the migrants is greater than the state average (72,0%), which is implying increasing scale of the emigratory movements. - As for the gender structure of the migration contingent, the rise of number of women happened, especially the active ones. The composition of the migration contingent, based on the age, showed that a significant vital part of the population is staying abroad. Namely, very significant are the data on the migratory generation ratios, according to which the migrants are in average younger than the total population in the country. In 1994, abroad was comparatively large part of the basic age contin¬ gents of the total population (6,9% of children, 9,9% of younger population, 9,4% of working-age population and 8,1% of Women s fertile contingent). - According to the nationality in 1994, largest share belongs to the Macedonians and the Albanians - 62,6% and 29,6% respectively. The number of migrants of Albanian nationality is registering a permanent rise, especially in the 1981-1994 time frame, when the number of the family members was also rising. - The changes in the number and structure of the migrants based on the education are very emphasized. Especially large is the rise of number of persons with finished high school, college and faculty education. It confirms the indicators based on which one person with faculty education (college or faculty) in 1971 was joined by 19 persons, while in 1994 by only 1,3 uneducated person. - A specific characteristic of our emigration is large share of emigrants in over-the- ocean countries. Even though the census data are incomplete, yet it is a base for relevant cognition on the continued direction of migrants toward specific areas in the same countries, which is indicating the existence of the migration links . - The duration of stay of migrants is confirming the lasting of those movements and its intensity in particular time intervals. In 1994,29,3% of migrants was staying abroad up to 5 years and 30,3% of them longer than 20 years. - The return streams register a tendency of decline. The number of returnees from abroad, from about 20.800 in 1981, decreased to 14.000 persons in 1994. More than half of them were staying abroad up to five years. II. The Emigration and the Socio-economic Development of the Republic of Macedonia > By the research, we found out that the contemporary emigratory movements from the Republic of Macedonia were under the influence of numerous and varying factors that 396 Summary would be difficult to totally comprehended and to adequately systematize. Of those, several groups of factor are distinguished. - ■ ■ The continued emigration rise is corresponding to the changes in the socio-economic development of the country. It began in the circumstances of deep changes in the total development and the economic reform in 1965. The failure of this and other reforms contributed to the reduction of the dynamics of the economic growth and numerous social disruptions. In the eighties, the development stagnation, and then deep social and economic crisis happened, which was accentuated in the transition period. - There was a strong influence on the size of the emigration from the long-term, very high, visible unemployment. Together with the unemployment increase, the number of over-employment was also increasing, which at end of eighties reached the unem¬ ployment level. In the nineties, the transition lead,to significant employment decrease and enormous rise in the unemployment rate, which, based on all the estimates, is higher than 30,0%. - We are identifying the intensive and chaotic deagrarization process as one of more significant factors for the emigratory movements. Inadequate treatment of the village and lack of basic premises for its development did stimulate the emigration from those areas. - The economic development was not the only determinant of large regional differen¬ ces in the intensity of emigration. Namely, of 14 municipalities that between 1971 and 1994 did have a status of underdeveloped municipalities, only six were in the group of significantly emigratory areas. - The rise in the number of migrants in part of the areas with high natality from the western part of the country, among the other things, is under the influence of incre¬ ased population concentration, especially the agricultural population. - The tradition, the formation of numerous Macedonian communities and the estab¬ lished migratory links represent significant, if not crucial determinant of the contem¬ porary emigration from the traditionally emigratory areas and, after 1981, from the municipalities in the western part of the country. - The significant factor which is influencing the decision of young specialists and highly educated cadres to leave the country is seriously disrupted system of values in the last two decades - lack of respect to the work, workmanship underrate, limited possi¬ bilities of professional promotion, lack of responsibility which is accompanied with highly developed system of privileges etc. - By having a large migration potential in the country, very significant factors that were intensifying the emigration were the changes in the immigration policies of the recei¬ ving countries. The increased selectivity in accepting the migrants emphasized the emigration of highly educated cadres. > Having in mind the existence of numerous factors that influence the changes in the size and the dynamics of the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia and its different manifestation for the country as a whole and by particular areas, we tried to elucidate it 397 from a different angle, by applying the method of multiple straight-line regression and correlation. In the same time, the correlation between the emigration and Gross Domes¬ tic Product per capita, the unemployment rate, the crude rate of natural population increase, the agrarian population, the realized investments per capita and the share of employed in the total population was analyzed. The results of the sample from thirty municipalities in the country in 1971, as well as for the sample from the twelve municipalities with high emigration intensity in 1971 and 1981, showed that the selected independent variables represent the significant determi¬ nant of those movements. Based on the analysis of 1981 for the first sample and of 1994 for both samples, the majority or none of the selected variables in the model did not have statistical significance. So, we concluded that the emigration rise in the last decade is under the influence of some other factors - tradition, migration links, disrupted system of values, etc. > Through the research, we found out that the consequences and implications of the emigration are numerous and very complex, and are manifested in several domains. As for the socio-economic development, of special significance is its influence on the demo¬ graphic and economic development. > Migratory movements from the Republic of Macedonia toward abroad became the integral part of the movement of the total population. Today, the emigration have large influence on the demographic development of the country. - The established census data on the total population with and without migrations in 1994 showed that, as a consequence of those migrations, the amount of total popula¬ tion was decreased by 8,2%, and for the rural population - by 11,7%. Based on our approximations, without the migration component, the amount of total population to¬ day would be larger by 15,0% of the current situation, and for the rural population by more than 20%. - The consequences on the total population growth based on the natural increase of the migration contingent are also significant. By the Census in 1981,19.478 persons born abroad were registered. That number since 1981 up until now, based on our estimate, is amounting at least 30.000 children, whish is almost one-year number of live-born children in the country in the past several years. - Within the regional frames, the implications of those movements on the population increase are more significant in the emigratory areas. So, the number of total popula¬ tion in the municipalities of Gostivar, Kitchevo, Struga and Tetovo decreased betwe¬ en 8,9% and 11,9%, whereas in the municipality of Demir Hisar this loss is reaching about one quarter (24,0%), and in the municipality of Ohrid one fifth (19,5%). The indirect calculations show that the loss is larger in the traditionally emigratory areas were, under the influence of the emigration, the demographic situation is seriously worsened. ! - Large changes in the size and structure of the basic contingents of the Macedonian citizens abroad did have adverse effect on the demographic development of the country. The data shows that the direct and indirect influence of the emigration on the age structure of the population and the acceleration of demographic aging processes are 398 Summary increasing. Those effects are particularly influencing the rural areas and the tradi¬ tionally emigratory municipalities. > Having in mind the economic character of the emigration/the consequences and impli¬ cations on the labour force and the employment are different and correspond to the changes of the size, structural characteristics and time of stay of the active part of the migration contingent. - In the beginning, the temporary employment abroad was a possibility to relax the unemployment problem, recovery of the labor-force market, as well as an opportuni¬ ty to acquire migrants new knowledge and skills. Because, in the meantime, the provisions for the intensification of the return streams were not created, the expected effects of those movements were not fulfilled. - The transformation of the temporary migrations into permanent ones lead to the loss of signifi cant part of the labour force. According to the 1994 census data, the amount of the total working-age population as a result of the emigration is smaller by 9,3 %, and the active one by 11,3%. But we estimate that the values of those indicators are really larger for at least 50,0%. In those circumstances, the valorization of the influence of the emigratory movements on the relaxation of the unemployment problem in the country is getting a different meaning, because when there is a permanent loss of part of the labour force, the loss is too high. The mutual rise of the emigration and the unemployment unambiguously indicate that the problem of unemployment is not re¬ laxed nor solved in that way. - The negative effects of the emigration on the labour force are especially manifested in the rural areas, where the number of the working-age population is smaller by 14%, and of the active population by about 20%. It influenced the reduction of the agricultural labour force, it s aging and the disruption of the interrelation between the labour force and the available production capacities in the agriculture in the traditionally emigratory municipalities. У The trend of increase of the migration of the persons with higher education level and highly skilled cadres, as well as the young scientists from particular faculties, is implying the negative effects in many domains. - Even though there are no relevant data on the size and structure of this category of migrants, based on several indices, one can conclude that its size is significant. The short-term and long-term consequences and implications are huge. They are primari¬ ly manifested on the area of economy and the development of the country, also on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the labour force, scientific and research activities, etc. - Direct losses because of the outflow of educated and highly skilled cadres concer¬ ning the expenses made for its rising and education, are very high. But, the negative implications are even larger having in mind the expected effects arising from its economic engagement in the country. The experience shows that those losses are incomparably larger than the direct losses. 399 > The foreign currency inflow from Macedonian citizens abroad is one of the develop¬ ment resources coming from the emigration. The changes in its size, even though they follow the dynamics of the emigration, do not correspond to the total number of mi¬ grants. The causes should be sought in the transformation of the temporary migration into permanent one and in the mistakes in the economic policy. - The available data on the foreign currency inflow refer to only a part of financial potential of the migrants. The largest part of its savings remains in the banks of the receiving countries. The total financial potential of our citizens abroad can be esti¬ mated to almost several billion American dollars. - The analysis of the participation on the gross and net foreign currency inflow in the particular key positions of the balance of payment of the country between 1978 and 1998, showed that those were and remained quiet significant. It is a result of the long- term stagnation and deep economic crisis, especially during the transition period. - As for the internal financial streams, the inflow of foreign currency until the begin¬ ning of nineties was the prevailing component in the structure of citizens total foreign currency savings. Because of its large share in the long-term foreign currency poten¬ tials of the banks, they were a significant resource in financing the development activities of the country. - The data on gross balances of receipts and payments of the population and other relevant information have shown that the emigration did have a positive influence on payment-enabled demand of the population. Because of permanent economic crisis, the remittances from abroad influenced the improvement of the standard of living of the population in the emigratory areas. - The positive influence of the foreign currency remittances from abroad and other allowances of the population on the economic development of the country were omit¬ ted. Even though they were only a part of the total financial potential of the migrants, its size was not small and if those funds were productively utilized, it could contribute to the stimulation of the economic activities and larger involvement of the labour force. The largest part of those funds was utilized in maintaining the families, in buying the real estate, in acquiring permanent consumption goods etc. > The influence of the contemporary economic emigration on the socio-economic develop¬ ment of the Republic of Macedonia is manifested by the short-term and insufficiently expressed development effects, but numerous long-term negative consequences and implications. So, we estimate that the overall effect is very adverse. The continued increase of the emigration did not contribute to the substantial change in the develop¬ ment tendencies and in overcoming the problem of insufficient development. The re¬ sults of the research showed that, by the emigration the Republic of Macedonia perma¬ nently lost significant part of its population and labour force. In those circumstances the foreign currency inflow cannot compensate the human potential loss, because in a small country, as the Republic of Macedonia is, such an emigration intensity does have nega¬ tive long-term influence on the demographic development. It rises the essential issues related to the future existence as a state. 400 Summary III. The Emigratory Movements and the Socio-economic Development of the Municipalities of Bitola and Resen. > The traditionally emigratory municipalities - Bitola and Resen, are two of the areas of the current territory of the Republic of Macedonia from which the migratory move¬ ments toward abroad last for more than a century. . >. Having in mindthe lasting of this process, it is very difficult to determine its total amount. The 1994 census data showed that more than one quarter of the population and labour force of those two municipalities is abroad. Thereat, prevailing is the share .of the mi¬ grants from the rural areas. . - The municipalities of Bitola and Resen are distinguished by the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the migrants. High is a share of the women in the total, as well as in the active migration contingent. Quit large are the parts of the migrants in the basic age contingents of thetotal population. In 1994, the share of the children (aged 0-14) in the corresponding contingents of the total population was amounting: 24,0% in Bitola, 22,1% in Resen; of the young persons (aged 15-29) 30,7% and 32,6% respectively, of the working-age population - 27,4% and 29,4% respectively, and of women in the fertile age in the total fertile contingent - 28,2% and . 29,3% respectively. ■ - The contemporary emigration from those areas, because of the prevailing direction • toward the. over-the-ocean countries (Australia, U.S.A., Canada) is a continuity of the migrations that started a century ago. In the last four decades the directions of movements remained almost unchanged. One of additional specifics of the emigra¬ tion is its duration of stay of the migrants. In 1994, more than half of the total number of migrants and about three quarters of the active migration .contingent was abroad for longer than 20 years. Because relatively small number of persons returned into those municipalities, one can conclude that the emigration from Bitola and Resen is practically permanent emigration. > The basic determinant of the large size and intensity of those movements from the analyzed areas, by other conditions being equal- itì other parts of the country, is the already established tradition of emigration in the over-the-ocean countries and the esta¬ blished migration links. It is influencing the emigration process, so that it will start sooner and will reach larger proportions. > The. research showed that the consequences and implications on the demographic and economic development of the municipalities of Bitola and Resen, because of the long- lasting intensive emigration, are numerous and very emphasized. ■ > According to the 1994 census data, as a consequence of those movements, the munici¬ palities of Bitola and Resen have permanently lost around one third (33,8% and 35,3% respectively) of the total number of inhabitants. The size.of .the rural population is lesser for 77,0% in Bitola and for 55,0% in Resen. Under the influence of the emigration, large changes arose in me demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population. The age pyramids of the population give a pictorial expression of the population age-gender structure - with and without 401 migrations. There, it is shown that the direct and indirect influence of the emigration on the intensification of the process of demographic aging, especially in the rural areas, is very emphasized. > The implications on the economic development are highly negative. The 1994 census data have shown that Bitola have permanently lost more than one1 third, and Ŕesen around two quarters of labour force; Having in mind the demographic and socio-econo¬ mic characteristics of the migrants, it is a huge loss of high quality human potential. Even with such proportions of the emigration, the unemployment decrease did riot hap¬ pen., . ■ : ■■ · ■ ■ ■ ■ · ■ ■ ;■ ! ■■■■■■ ; ■■■ ■■> - The negative effects are particularly manifested in the rural areas, where labour force loss is reaching the enormous proportions, based on the situation in 1994 - around 90,0% in Bitola and 75,0% in Resen. As a result, there were very negative implications on the size and structural characteristics of the total and the active agri¬ cultural population* the utilization of the available production capacities and the develop¬ ment of the agricultural activity. - Because the permanent emigration was prevailing, the contemporary emigration did not have a positive effect on the economic development of the municipalities of Bitola and Resen. The effects of so-called circular migration flows were minimal, and in the last decade almost negligible. The comparative analysis óf the economic develop¬ ment of those municipalities has shown that, during the intensive migratory move¬ ments, more significant dynamization of its economic development, modernization of -the economic structure, significant employment increase and resolution of the unem¬ ployment problem did not happen. According to the level of development, between 1971 and 1994 Resen remained in the group of underdeveloped areas, whereas Bito¬ la from the eighth place did slide to 15-th place in 1985. > The results of the research in the municipalities of Bitola and Resen confirmed the theoretical and empirical cognition that most pictorial representation notion on the mi¬ grations and the development are obtained by conducting the research on smaller areas. IV. The Emigration and Future Socio-economic Development of the Republic of Macedonia > The cognition on the potential migration which today, according to several indices and individual estimates, have reached alarming dimensions, refer to the conclusion that the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia will continue in the future; with compara¬ tively large intensity. Part of it are the unemployed and employed persons, primarily those with higher education, part of the young scientists from the faculties of the natural and technical sciences as well as the persons that are acquiring abroad their education or professional development. The transformation of the potential migration into definite one will depend on the future development processes in the country, changes in the personal appraisal of the persons intending to move abroad, and in a great extend, immigration policies of the potential receiving countries. Having in mind the realistically achievable dynamics of the econo¬ mic growth and the possibilities in resolving the unemployment problem, one can esti- 402 Summary mate that on the short and medium term, the Republic of Macedonia will face compara¬ tively large migration potential and still intensive emigration. > The consequences and the implications of the emigration on the demographic and eco¬ nomic development will be determined by the current and future volume and intensity of those movements. The projections for the population up to 2020 show that, if the emi¬ gration continues with the same intensity, it will have considerable influence on the future population increase and the acceleration of the demographic aging process. The future emigration of persons with higher degree of education will be reflected on the volume and quality of the available labour force and it could cause the disruption in the structural, sectoral and regional distribution of the labour force in the country. The in¬ flow of foreign currency will in the future depend on the share of the permanent and temporary migrations and the volume of the return streams. Its influence on the balance of payment and internal financial flows, as well as on the improvement of the wealth and standard of living of part of the population, will be of great significance. ^ The problem of intensive emigration cannot be overcome by partial short-term measu¬ res. The solution is to be sought in a comprehensive medium and long-term development policy. The numerous limitations, which today the country faces, are prompting a se¬ lective approach to the problem and socially rational selection of priorities. In reducing the enormous scale of emigration and potential migration in the medium-term, the prior¬ ities of the country should be in overcoming social and economic crisis, in reducing the unemployment, in stimulating and supporting the scientific and research activities and in creating the provisions for the intensification of return streams. ^ The absence of the migration policy in the Republic of Macedonia in the last four deca¬ des emphasized the negative effects of the emigration. Defining and acquiring the con¬ sistent and transparent long-term migration policy is today imposed as inevitable. It should be directed toward overcoming the current situation of sizeable permanent emigra¬ tions and utilizing large available potentials of migrants in the benefit of the development of the country. It implies corresponding measures and instruments to stimulate the tempo¬ rary employment and stay abroad, the activities related to the return of the migrants and its reintegration in the economic and social life, as well as the measures aimed at incre¬ asing the foreign exchange inflow and its productive utilization. 403
adam_txt	СОДРЖИНА ПРЕДГОВОР .11 ВОВЕД .13 ПРВ ДЕЛ: СОВРЕМЕНИТЕ МЕЃУНАРОДНИ МИГРАЦИИ ИРАЗВОЈОТ .19 I ОСНОВНИ ТЕОРЕТСКИ И ЕМПИРИСКИ СОЗНАНИЈА ЗА МЕЃУНАРОДНИТЕ МИГРАЦИИ .21 1. Дефиниции и извори на податоци за меѓународните миграции .21 2. Видови меѓународни миграции .26 3. Некой граѓански и современи економски теории за меѓународните миграции .32 3.1. Граѓански теории за меѓународните миграции. .34 3.2. Современи економски теории за меѓународните миграции. .38 3.2.1. Теорија па рампотежа .39 3,2.2.Теорща па асиметричпости - нееднакви ефекти од миграцијата. 40 3.3. Теоретски расправи за алтернативите на меѓународните миграции .46 4. Основни детерминанти на современите меѓународни миграции на населението и работната сила .52 4.1. Економски фактори .53 4.2. Неекономски фактори .59 4.3. Субјективни фактори .64 4.4. Ограничувачки околности .65 5. Последици и импликации од меѓународните миграции врз демографскиот и социо-економскиот развој .67 5.1. Последици и импликации врз демографскиот развој .67 5.2. Последици и импликации врз социо-економскиот развој . 71 Ѕ.2.1.3емји па прием .71 5.2.2.3емји na потекло .77 Цитирана литература .87 II МЕЃУНАРОДНИТЕ МИГРАЦИИ И СОЦИО-ЕКОНОМСКИОТ РАЗВОЈ ВО ОДДЕЛНИ РЕГИОНИ ВО СВЕТОТ .91 1. Меѓународните миграциони движења во Европа .91 1.1. Видови меѓународни миграции во Европа .91 І.І.І.Работнщи мигранты и членови на кивните семејства .91 1.1.2.Миграција Исток - Запад .96 І.І.З.Беїалци и азиланти .«.101 1.2. Демографски и социо-економски детерминанти на миграционите движења .105 1.3. Демографски, економиш и социјални импликации за земјите на прием и земјите на емиграција .108 1.4. Некой аспекти за регулираіьето, интеграционите процеси и политиките на миграциите .120 2. Меѓународните миграции во Северна Америка - САД и Канада .124 2.1. Обем и динамика на миграционите движеіьа .124 2.2. Меѓународните миграции и нивните импликации врз демографскиот и социо-економскиот развој .130 2.3. Промени во имиграционата политика .139 3. Меѓународните миграции во Австралија .143 3.1. Обем и динамика на имиграционите движења .144 3.2. Меѓународните миграции и социо-економскиот развој .145 3.3. Основни карактеристики на имиграционата политика . 148 4. Некой аспекти на меѓународните миграции и социо- економскиот развој во другите региони во светот .149 Цитирана литература .155 ВТОР ДЕЛ: СОВРЕМЕНАТАЕМИГРАЦША ОД РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША И РАЗВО JOT .157 I ОБЕМ И СТРУКТУРНИ КАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ НА ЕМИГРАЦШАТА ОД РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША .159 1. Квантификација на обемот на современите миграции од Република Македонија во странство. 161 1.1. Миграционите движеіьа во странство од Македонија во нејзините етнички граници .161 1.2. Современата емиграција од Република Македонија .166 1.3. Апроксимација на вкупниот обем на граѓани на Република Македонија кои заминале во странство .172 2. Основни белези на современите емиграциони движења на населението и работната сила .178 2.1. ОбеМ и динамика uà Миграциите на населението и работната сила w.«.:.,,.,.»., . ^.^.i. 178 2.2. Регионални специфичности на емиграционите движен»а . 182 2.3. Структурни карактеристики на миграптите според демографски и социо-економски белези . 192 2.3.1. Структура според йол и старост.»,. .192 2.3.2.Структура сйоред национална приџадност.»,.,,.».,».,.,,. 201 .2.3.3. Структура сйоред образование и квалификации .и .204 2.3.4. Структура сйоред активности и занимањето. .210 ■2.4. Правци lia ДВижење на миграптите ._ .і. _213 2.5. ВреМетраење на престојот на македонските граѓани во странство . 219 2.6. Обем, динамика и основни белези на повратниците од странство .224 Цитирана литература. .229 II. ЕМИГРАЦШАТА И СОЦИО-ЕКОНОШЖИОТ РАЗВОЈ НА РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША .;<·.,. 231 1. Соцйо-економските услови и миграционите движења од Република Македонија во странство .231 1.1. ОСНОВНИ детерминанти На современата емиграција .231 1.1.1. Општесшвено-економски развој .231 L 1.2. Демографските движења u просторната разместеност на населението.: .242 1.1.3. Институционални и вонинсшитуционални Предуслови. . 247 1.2. Квантификација на влијанието на некой социо-економски и демографски фактори врз интензйтетот на емиграцијата .253 2. Влијанието на емнграционите движења врз социо- економскиот развој на Република Македонија .261 2.1. Последици и импликации врз демографскиот развој _.261 2.1.1.Вкупен пораст на населението и неговата регионална разместеност .261 2.1.2.Промени во структурата на населението според пол и старост .265 2.2. Импликации врз економскиот развој .270 2.2.1. Импликации врз работната сила и вработеноста .270 2.2.2.Имйликации од одливот на високообразовани и високостручни кадри и научници .275 2.2.3. Девизниот прилив од македонските граѓани во странство и стопанскиот развој. .280 Цитирана литература .292 III. ЕМИГРАЦИОНИТЕ ДВИЖЕЊА И СОЦИО-ЕКОНОМСКИОТ PĄ3BOJ НА ОПШТИНИТЕ БИТОЛА И РЕСЕН .λ-λ.; . .u _295 1. Особености ва преселничкнте двііжеіьа во странство ._. 296 1.1. Обем и динамика на емиграцијата. .296 1.2. Структурни характеристики на мигрантите - демографски и социо-економски. .;.299 1.3. Правни на движење, времетраење на престојот и повратни текови .304 2. Некой аспекти на причините за интензивните емиграциони движења .,.».307 3. Демографски и социо-економски последици и импликации од емиграцијата во општините Битола и Ресен. .310 3.1. Емиграционите движења и демографскиот развој . 310 3.2. Импликации врз економскиот развој .316 Цитирана литература . 325 IV. ЕМИГРАЦШАТА И ИДНИОТ ЄОЦИО- ЕКОНОМСКИ РАЗВОЈ НА РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНИЈА .327 1. Потенцијалната миграција и идните миграциони движења во странство . 327 2. Емиграцијата и идниот демографски и економскнг развој . 331 3. Претпоставки за намалуваїье на трајните иселуваіьа и интензивирање на повратните текови .334 4. Миграциона политика - насоки и мерки. j. .338 5. Други неопходни мерки и активности во врска со емиграцијата .342 Цитирана литература .'.345 ЗАКЛУЧНИ СОГЛЕДБИ .347 ПРИЛОЗИ .·.363 SUMMARY .391 КОРИСТЕНА ЛИТЕРАТУРА .:.405 10 SUMMARY The international migrations in the second half of the twentieth century in the world did have a tendency of continued increase. In the recent years, the total amount of international migrants is estimated at about 125 million persons, or 2,0% of the total world population. The considerable intensity of those migratory movements did raise an immense interest of the scientific thought from several scientific disciplines. The results of the research indicated a particular changes in the cognition about the international migrations and the development. The Republic of Macedonia is one of the countries where the emigratory movements in the last four decades have registered continued growth. The subject of this examination is the contemporary international migrations, the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia and the socio-economic development. It arose from the cognition on the changes in the size and the intensity of those movements from our country and the necessity of its observation in the context of the whole international migration streams and trends in the world. By the research in the first part, the essential theoretical and empirical cognition about the contemporary international migrations and the development are encompassed. In the second half, the situ¬ ation in the Republic of Macedonia as a whole and its emigratory areas since 1945 up until now, are analyzed. , The aims of the research are as follows: to have an overview of the changes in the theoretical cognition and the experience concerning the interaction between the international migrations and the development; to identify the dimensions arid the basic characteristics of the contemporary emigration from the Republic of Macedonia - as a total and regionally; to acquire the relevant cognition about the causes, the consequences arid the implications of the emigration on the development of the country; to identify the influence of those migratory movements on the development of the emigratory areas by the samples of the municipalities of Bitola and Resen; to identify the necessary presuppositions to decrease the intensity of the permanent emigrations, to actuate a return streams as well as to stress the inevitability of active migration policy existence. Several relevant statements, conclusions and suggestions arose from the research in this work. 391 Part One I. The Basic Theoretical and Empirical Cognition on the International Migrations > The complexity of the interdependence of the migrations and the socio-economic develop¬ ment is stressing the need make a clear distinction between the different kinds of the international migrations. In that context, from several classifications, the most acceptable is the definition of the economic migration and the refugees. > In the contemporary theoretical discussions on the international migrations and the de¬ velopment, two opposite stands are differentiating for some time, For those who belong to the neoclassical, or the theory of balance, the international migrations have a positive influence on the development of the receiving countries and of the countries of origin and contribute to the increase of the production in the world. According to the theory of assymmetricity, the migrations are widening the differences in the development level. The unsustainability of the neoclassical theory is arising from the substantially changed character of those migratory movements and the obvious irreconcilability of the theory and practice. The cognition about even more limited role of the international migrations as a factor of the development and the decrease of its amount in the future, did initiate the discussions about finding the alternative solutions. There is a common opinion that those alternative solutions are to be primarily sought in the development strategy of open economies, which would ensure a sustainable economic development of the countries of origin and the emigratory pressure decrease. Based on those discussions, three strategies in opening toward the external world distinguish: construction of free industrial zones, free trade, foreign direct investments and the official development aid. The importance of the free industrial zones in actuating the regional development and opening new work places is irrefutable. But they cannot absorb all the excess labour force and secure the integrated development, which is the way to eliminate the causes of the emigration. When great differences in the level of the development exist, the free trade as such could not repre¬ sent an alternative to the migratory movements. So, we estimate that the orientation should be primarily toward the foreign direct investments and the different kinds of financial aid. > The determinants of the international migrations are different and very complex. The research showed that they are primarily caused by the economic factors: the differenc¬ es in the level of economic development; the poverty; the deagrarization processes; the employment and unemployment; the changes in the economic cycles; the differences in the level of wages etc. Of increasing influence are the processes of global economic restructuring and the intensification of the regional economic integrations, which will not decrease the emigratory pressure in the short and medium term. Relatively significant is the influence of some non-economic and subjective factors. Of those, the emphasized influence do have the differences in the demographic development, the migratory pressure and the establishment of the migration networks that are identified as factors of perma- 392 Summary nent preservation of those movements. When the significant migratory pressure exists, the restrictive immigration policies are an essential limiting factor. > The analysis of the theoretical discussions on the influence of the international migra¬ tions on the socio-economic development of the immigratory and the emigratory coun¬ tries showed that the consequences and the implications are numerous, some of them different now than three decades ago. - The influence on the demographic development is reflected on the movement of the total number of citizens and the changes in the components of natural movements, the demographic and socio-economic structure of the population in receiving coun¬ tries and in countries of origin. During its determination in the contemporary condi¬ tions, it is necessary to respect substantially changed demographic context in which those movements are taking place. The result of the recent studies showed that the international migration does not have anymore the redistributive potential of the past. - The implications of the international migrations on the economic development of the receiving countries are positive and are manifested by muMplicating macroeconomic effects on the labour force market, the economic growth, the organization of the production process and technology selection, social net system etc. - As far as the macroeconomic consequences and implications of the emigration are concerned, unquestionable is the favorable influence of the temporary migration, un¬ less the positive effects of the unemployment decrease, the inflow of the foreign currency, the new knowledge acquired by the migrants are to be utilized. The conse¬ quences of the long-term emigration and permanent emigrations are negative be¬ cause of the loss of high-grade human potential. In such circumstances, the socio- economic transformation and surpassing the development problems of the countries of origin are not secured. II. The International Migrations and the Socio-economic Development of Particular Regions in the World ^ As for the experiences about the interaction between the contemporary international migrations and the development, the situation in Europe, U.S.A, Canada and Australia are analyzed in particular. The determination toward those areas, among other things, is because of the prevailing direction of the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia toward those countries. > The available data on the permanent immigration in the U.S.A, Canada and Australia show that the immigration is registering the changes only on the dynamics and the structural characteristics of the immigrants. Between 1965 and 1989, about 18,4 million persons have immigrated into those countries, of which 65,0% in the U.S.A, 20,0% in Canada and 15,0% in Australia. On the contrary, the international migrations in Europe are characterized by very large changes in the kinds, the amount, the intensity and the directions of the movements. Of those, the migrant workers and members of their families, the migration East-West, the asylum seekers and the refugees are singled out. Even it is not easy to determine its volume, the available data is giving a partial notion on the situation and the movements influenced by several demographic, socio-economic, politi¬ cal and other motives. 393 > The consequences and the implications on the demographic development are different. In the receiving countries those are obviously positive. Based on the estimates; by the United Nations, between 1950 and 1989, the contribution of net migration on trie rate of total population increase in the U.S.A. is amounting 23,0%, in Canada - 25?0%, in Aus¬ tralia - 41,0% and in the European countries between 10,0% and 50,0%. Illustrative is the sample of Germany, where after 1970, the source of the total population increase is the immigration. The projections of the future movements show that in those areas, with the immigration in the first half of the 21-th century, the population decrease could be stopped only if the continued acceptance of larger number of immigrants would be allowed. But, the negative effects of significantly low fertility could not' even be com¬ pensated in that way. Unlike those countries, in the countries of origin, the direct and indirect effects of the emigration over the population growth are negative. > The influence of the international migrations on the economic development of the re¬ ceiving countries is positive, and is a result of the permanent reassessment of its immi¬ gration policies and the increased selectivity in accepting thé immigrants. The countries of origin did not succeed in fully utilizing the advantages of the temporary emigration. The negative influences are particularly large in the countries where the emigration is happening for many decades and is also characterized by very large outflow of highly ! qualified cadre. That is confirmed by the changes and widening thé differences in the level of development and the standard of living of the population in immigratory and emigratory countries in the observed regions, that happened in last four decades. Part Two I. The Size and the Characteristics of the Contemporary Emigration from the Republic of Macedonia > As for the external migrations of the Republic of Macedonia during longer time frame, the prevailing emigration is typical. Its current territory is traditionally emigratory area for more than one hundred years. > By the analyses made we concluded that the changes in the size and the character of the emigration, since 1945 up until now, are corresponding to the phases of the social and economic development of the country and the changes of the migration policies of the receiving countries. By our opinion, four periods are singled out. - The first one, starting in 1945 up until the beginning of the sixties, is characterized by the intensive emigrations of the Turks . Comparatively small is the number of Mace¬ donians and other citizens that left the country. - The second period -1961-1975, is coinciding with the economic emigration - tempo¬ rary employment abroad and permanent emigrations in the over-the-ocean countries. - In the third period - 1976-1990, there was decreasing employment abroad of the Macedonian citizens, more intensive return of the migrant workers, the juncture of the families of those that stayed, the self-reproduction of the migration contingent and 394 Summary .gradual transformation of the temporary stay abroad into permanent one. The emi¬ gration is again intensified at the end of the eighties. - The time frame since the gain of the independence of the Republic of Macedonia up until now is observed as a separate period, when the largest emigration wave since the start of the economic emigration was encountered. > The analysis of the contemporary emigration from the RepubKc of Macedonia showed that, because of the lack of comprehensive data from the domestic and foreign sources it is very difficult to determine its amount and dynamics. > When quantifying the emigration, it is necessary to have in mind the movements from the different areas of Macedonia within its ethnic boundaries. It is because of the volu¬ me of the emigration into the over-the-ocean countries, of which it is not easy to differen¬ tiate the citizens of the Republic of Macedonia. Based on several approximations the number of Macedonian emigrants from all the parts of Macedonia into the over-the- ocean countries is amounting between 500 and 550 thousand persons. We estimate the share of the migrants from the Republic of Macedonia at about 30,0%. > The quantification of the total number of citizens of the Republic of Macedonia that left the country since 1945 up until now, is based on all available administrative and statisti¬ cal data sources, the approximations of other authors, as well as on the cognition on the size of the net migration. Based on those data, the estimate for different time frames was made. Those estimates showed that between 1945 and 1961, from the Republic of Macedonia left at least 170 thousand persons, in the sixties (1961-1971) - between 95 and 100 thousand, since 1971 up to 1981 - around 70 thousand, and in the time frame 1981-1994 - 140 to 150 thousand persons. ^ In all those approximations of the volume of emigration, the persons that returned in the country and those born abroad were not counted. Because of lack of relevant data, if one assumes that the number of returned persons and the persons born abroad is equal in the whole observed period, then, by our estimate, the total number of citizens that left the Republic of Macedonia since 1945 up until now, would be between 525 and 540 thousand persons. ^ The approximation of the total number of the Macedonian citizens that currently live abroad showed that it is very large, amounting between 320 and 350 thousand persons. It represents between 16,1% and 17,6% of the total population in 1999. With the trans¬ formation of the temporary into permanent movements, as well as with the recent inten¬ sification of the emigration processes, the Republic of Macedonia is permanently losing significant part of its population. ^ The only available data that would be the basis in determining the changes in the size, the regional specifics and the structural characteristics of the population and the labour force emigration, are the census data. Even though its scope is incomplete, the informa¬ tion on the tendencies and some cognition on the changes that happened can be ob¬ tained. From the detailed analysis of that data, several conclusions were done. - The number of migrants is constantly increasing, reaching in 1994 an amount of 173.611 persons. The share of the migrants from the rural areas is prevailing, even with the significant increase of the emigration from the urban areas. 395 -, Between 1971 and 1994, the share of the family members in the total migration contingent increased from 3,6% to 49,5%, It is indicating that the temporary emigra¬ tion is gradually transforming into permanent one. - One of the characteristics of the emigration is emphasized regional differences. Ac¬ cording to the share of the migrants in the total population, two groups of emigratory municipalities are isolated. The first one - Resen (26,3 %) and Bitola (25,4%) and the second one - Demir Hisar, Ohrid, Struga, Tetovo, Gostivar and Kitchevo, where this share ranges between 10,6% and 19,6%. In the 1981-1994 time frame, in 17 municipa¬ lities the increase of the migrants is greater than the state average (72,0%), which is implying increasing scale of the emigratory movements. - As for the gender structure of the migration contingent, the rise of number of women happened, especially the active ones. The composition of the migration contingent, based on the age, showed that a significant vital part of the population is staying abroad. Namely, very significant are the data on the migratory generation ratios, according to which the migrants are in average younger than the total population in the country. In 1994, abroad was comparatively large part of the basic age contin¬ gents of the total population (6,9% of children, 9,9% of younger population, 9,4% of working-age population and 8,1% of Women's fertile contingent). - According to the nationality in 1994, largest share belongs to the Macedonians and the Albanians - 62,6% and 29,6% respectively. The number of migrants of Albanian nationality is registering a permanent rise, especially in the 1981-1994 time frame, when the number of the family members was also rising. - The changes in the number and structure of the migrants based on the education are very emphasized. Especially large is the rise of number of persons with finished high school, college and faculty education. It confirms the indicators based on which one person with faculty education (college or faculty) in 1971 was joined by 19 persons, while in 1994 by only 1,3 uneducated person. - A specific characteristic of our emigration is large share of emigrants in over-the- ocean countries. Even though the census data are incomplete, yet it is a base for relevant cognition on the continued direction of migrants toward specific areas in the same countries, which is indicating the existence of the migration links . - The duration of stay of migrants is confirming the lasting of those movements and its intensity in particular time intervals. In 1994,29,3% of migrants was staying abroad up to 5 years and 30,3% of them longer than 20 years. - The return streams register a tendency of decline. The number of returnees from abroad, from about 20.800 in 1981, decreased to 14.000 persons in 1994. More than half of them were staying abroad up to five years. II. The Emigration and the Socio-economic Development of the Republic of Macedonia > By the research, we found out that the contemporary emigratory movements from the Republic of Macedonia were under the influence of numerous and varying factors that 396 Summary would be difficult to totally comprehended and to adequately systematize. Of those, several groups of factor are distinguished. - ■ ■ The continued emigration rise is corresponding to the changes in the socio-economic development of the country. It began in the circumstances of deep changes in the total development and the economic reform in 1965. The failure of this and other reforms contributed to the reduction of the dynamics of the economic growth and numerous social disruptions. In the eighties, the development stagnation, and then deep social and economic crisis happened, which was accentuated in the transition period. - There was a strong influence on the size of the emigration from the long-term, very high, visible unemployment. Together with the unemployment increase, the number of over-employment was also increasing, which at end of eighties reached the unem¬ ployment level. In the nineties, the transition lead,to significant employment decrease and enormous rise in the unemployment rate, which, based on all the estimates, is higher than 30,0%. - We are identifying the intensive and chaotic deagrarization process as one of more significant factors for the emigratory movements. Inadequate treatment of the village and lack of basic premises for its development did stimulate the emigration from those areas. - The economic development was not the only determinant of large regional differen¬ ces in the intensity of emigration. Namely, of 14 municipalities that between 1971 and 1994 did have a status of underdeveloped municipalities, only six were in the group of significantly emigratory areas. - The rise in the number of migrants in part of the areas with high natality from the western part of the country, among the other things, is under the influence of incre¬ ased population concentration, especially the agricultural population. - The tradition, the formation of numerous Macedonian communities and the estab¬ lished migratory links represent significant, if not crucial determinant of the contem¬ porary emigration from the traditionally emigratory areas and, after 1981, from the municipalities in the western part of the country. - The significant factor which is influencing the decision of young specialists and highly educated cadres to leave the country is seriously disrupted system of values in the last two decades - lack of respect to the work, workmanship underrate, limited possi¬ bilities of professional promotion, lack of responsibility which is accompanied with highly developed system of privileges etc. - By having a large migration potential in the country, very significant factors that were intensifying the emigration were the changes in the immigration policies of the recei¬ ving countries. The increased selectivity in accepting the migrants emphasized the emigration of highly educated cadres. > Having in mind the existence of numerous factors that influence the changes in the size and the dynamics of the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia and its different manifestation for the country as a whole and by particular areas, we tried to elucidate it 397 from a different angle, by applying the method of multiple straight-line regression and correlation. In the same time, the correlation between the emigration and Gross Domes¬ tic Product per capita, the unemployment rate, the crude rate of natural population increase, the agrarian population, the realized investments per capita and the share of employed in the total population was analyzed. The results of the sample from thirty municipalities in the country in 1971, as well as for the sample from the twelve municipalities with high emigration intensity in 1971 and 1981, showed that the selected independent variables represent the significant determi¬ nant of those movements. Based on the analysis of 1981 for the first sample and of 1994 for both samples, the majority or none of the selected variables in the model did not have statistical significance. So, we concluded that the emigration rise in the last decade is under the influence of some other factors - tradition, migration links, disrupted system of values, etc. > Through the research, we found out that the consequences and implications of the emigration are numerous and very complex, and are manifested in several domains. As for the socio-economic development, of special significance is its influence on the demo¬ graphic and economic development. > Migratory movements from the Republic of Macedonia toward abroad became the integral part of the movement of the total population. Today, the emigration have large influence on the demographic development of the country. - The established census data on the total population with and without migrations in 1994 showed that, as a consequence of those migrations, the amount of total popula¬ tion was decreased by 8,2%, and for the rural population - by 11,7%. Based on our approximations, without the migration component, the amount of total population to¬ day would be larger by 15,0% of the current situation, and for the rural population by more than 20%. - The consequences on the total population growth based on the natural increase of the migration contingent are also significant. By the Census in 1981,19.478 persons born abroad were registered. That number since 1981 up until now, based on our estimate, is amounting at least 30.000 children, whish is almost one-year number of live-born children in the country in the past several years. - Within the regional frames, the implications of those movements on the population increase are more significant in the emigratory areas. So, the number of total popula¬ tion in the municipalities of Gostivar, Kitchevo, Struga and Tetovo decreased betwe¬ en 8,9% and 11,9%, whereas in the municipality of Demir Hisar this loss is reaching about one quarter (24,0%), and in the municipality of Ohrid one fifth (19,5%). The indirect calculations show that the loss is larger in the traditionally emigratory areas were, under the influence of the emigration, the demographic situation is seriously worsened. ! - Large changes in the size and structure of the basic contingents of the Macedonian citizens abroad did have adverse effect on the demographic development of the country. The data shows that the direct and indirect influence of the emigration on the age structure of the population and the acceleration of demographic aging processes are 398 Summary increasing. Those effects are particularly influencing the rural areas and the tradi¬ tionally emigratory municipalities. > Having in mind the economic character of the emigration/the consequences and impli¬ cations on the labour force and the employment are different and correspond to the changes of the size, structural characteristics and time of stay of the active part of the migration contingent. - In the beginning, the temporary employment abroad was a possibility to relax the unemployment problem, recovery of the labor-force market, as well as an opportuni¬ ty to acquire migrants' new knowledge and skills. Because, in the meantime, the provisions for the intensification of the return streams were not created, the expected effects of those movements were not fulfilled. - The transformation of the temporary migrations into permanent ones lead to the loss of signifi cant part of the labour force. According to the 1994 census data, the amount of the total working-age population as a result of the emigration is smaller by 9,3 %, and the active one by 11,3%. But we estimate that the values of those indicators are really larger for at least 50,0%. In those circumstances, the valorization of the influence of the emigratory movements on the relaxation of the unemployment problem in the country is getting a different meaning, because when there is a permanent loss of part of the labour force, the loss is too high. The mutual rise of the emigration and the unemployment unambiguously indicate that the problem of unemployment is not re¬ laxed nor solved in that way. - The negative effects of the emigration on the labour force are especially manifested in the rural areas, where the number of the working-age population is smaller by 14%, and of the active population by about 20%. It influenced the reduction of the agricultural labour force, it's aging and the disruption of the interrelation between the labour force and the available production capacities in the agriculture in the traditionally emigratory municipalities. У The trend of increase of the migration of the persons with higher education level and highly skilled cadres, as well as the young scientists from particular faculties, is implying the negative effects in many domains. - Even though there are no relevant data on the size and structure of this category of migrants, based on several indices, one can conclude that its size is significant. The short-term and long-term consequences and implications are huge. They are primari¬ ly manifested on the area of economy and the development of the country, also on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the labour force, scientific and research activities, etc. - Direct losses because of the outflow of educated and highly skilled cadres concer¬ ning the expenses made for its rising and education, are very high. But, the negative implications are even larger having in mind the expected effects arising from its economic engagement in the country. The experience shows that those losses are incomparably larger than the direct losses. 399 > The foreign currency inflow from Macedonian citizens abroad is one of the develop¬ ment resources coming from the emigration. The changes in its size, even though they follow the dynamics of the emigration, do not correspond to the total number of mi¬ grants. The causes should be sought in the transformation of the temporary migration into permanent one and in the mistakes in the economic policy. - The available data on the foreign currency inflow refer to only a part of financial potential of the migrants. The largest part of its savings remains in the banks of the receiving countries. The total financial potential of our citizens abroad can be esti¬ mated to almost several billion American dollars. - The analysis of the participation on the gross and net foreign currency inflow in the particular key positions of the balance of payment of the country between 1978 and 1998, showed that those were and remained quiet significant. It is a result of the long- term stagnation and deep economic crisis, especially during the transition period. - As for the internal financial streams, the inflow of foreign currency until the begin¬ ning of nineties was the prevailing component in the structure of citizens' total foreign currency savings. Because of its large share in the long-term foreign currency poten¬ tials of the banks, they were a significant resource in financing the development activities of the country. - The data on gross balances of receipts and payments of the population and other relevant information have shown that the emigration did have a positive influence on payment-enabled demand of the population. Because of permanent economic crisis, the remittances from abroad influenced the improvement of the standard of living of the population in the emigratory areas. - The positive influence of the foreign currency remittances from abroad and other allowances of the population on the economic development of the country were omit¬ ted. Even though they were only a part of the total financial potential of the migrants, its size was not small and if those funds were productively utilized, it could contribute to the stimulation of the economic activities and larger involvement of the labour force. The largest part of those funds was utilized in maintaining the families, in buying the real estate, in acquiring permanent consumption goods etc. > The influence of the contemporary economic emigration on the socio-economic develop¬ ment of the Republic of Macedonia is manifested by the short-term and insufficiently expressed development effects, but numerous long-term negative consequences and implications. So, we estimate that the overall effect is very adverse. The continued increase of the emigration did not contribute to the substantial change in the develop¬ ment tendencies and in overcoming the problem of insufficient development. The re¬ sults of the research showed that, by the emigration the Republic of Macedonia perma¬ nently lost significant part of its population and labour force. In those circumstances the foreign currency inflow cannot compensate the human potential loss, because in a small country, as the Republic of Macedonia is, such an emigration intensity does have nega¬ tive long-term influence on the demographic development. It rises the essential issues related to the future existence as a state. 400 Summary III. The Emigratory Movements and the Socio-economic Development of the Municipalities of Bitola and Resen. > The traditionally emigratory municipalities - Bitola and Resen, are two of the areas of the current territory of the Republic of Macedonia from which the migratory move¬ ments toward abroad last for more than a century. . >. Having in mindthe lasting of this process, it is very difficult to determine its total amount. The 1994 census data showed that more than one quarter of the population and labour force of those two municipalities is abroad. Thereat, prevailing is the share .of the mi¬ grants from the rural areas. . - The municipalities of Bitola and Resen are distinguished by the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the migrants. High is a share of the women in the total, as well as in the active migration contingent. Quit large are the parts of the migrants in the basic age contingents of thetotal population. In 1994, the share of the children (aged 0-14) in the corresponding contingents of the total population was amounting: 24,0% in Bitola, 22,1% in Resen; of the young persons (aged 15-29) 30,7% and 32,6% respectively, of the working-age population - 27,4% and 29,4% respectively, and of women in the fertile age in the total fertile contingent - 28,2% and . 29,3% respectively. ■ - The contemporary emigration from those areas, because of the prevailing direction • toward the. over-the-ocean countries (Australia, U.S.A., Canada) is a continuity of the migrations that started a century ago. In the last four decades the directions of movements remained almost unchanged. One of additional specifics of the emigra¬ tion is its duration of stay of the migrants. In 1994, more than half of the total number of migrants and about three quarters of the active migration .contingent was abroad for longer than 20 years. Because relatively small number of persons returned into those municipalities, one can conclude that the emigration from Bitola and Resen is practically permanent emigration. > The basic determinant of the large size and intensity of those movements from the analyzed areas, by other conditions being equal- itì other parts of the country, is the already established tradition of emigration in the over-the-ocean countries and the esta¬ blished migration links. It is influencing the emigration process, so that it will start sooner and will reach larger proportions. > The. research showed that the consequences and implications on the demographic and economic development of the municipalities of Bitola and Resen, because of the long- lasting intensive emigration, are numerous and very emphasized. ■ > According to the 1994 census data, as a consequence of those movements, the munici¬ palities of Bitola and Resen have permanently lost around one third (33,8% and 35,3% respectively) of the total number of inhabitants. The size.of .the rural population is lesser for 77,0% in Bitola and for 55,0% in Resen. Under the influence of the emigration, large changes arose in me demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population. The age pyramids of the population give a pictorial expression of the population age-gender structure - with and without 401 migrations. There, it is shown that the direct and indirect influence of the emigration on the intensification of the process of demographic aging, especially in the rural areas, is very emphasized. > The implications on the economic development are highly negative. The 1994 census data have shown that Bitola have permanently lost more than one1 third, and Ŕesen around two quarters of labour force; Having in mind the demographic and socio-econo¬ mic characteristics of the migrants, it is a huge loss of high quality human potential. Even with such proportions of the emigration, the unemployment decrease did riot hap¬ pen., '. ■ : ■■ · ■ ■ ■ ■ ' · ■ ■ ;■' ! ■■■■■■ ; ■■■'■■> - The negative effects are particularly manifested in the rural areas, where labour force loss is reaching the enormous proportions, based on the situation in 1994 - around 90,0% in Bitola and 75,0% in Resen. As a result, there were very negative implications on the size and structural characteristics of the total and the active agri¬ cultural population* the utilization of the available production capacities and the develop¬ ment of the agricultural activity. - Because the permanent emigration was prevailing, the contemporary emigration did not have a positive effect on the economic development of the municipalities of Bitola and Resen. The effects of so-called "circular migration flows" were minimal, and in the last decade almost negligible. The comparative analysis óf the economic develop¬ ment of those municipalities has shown that, during the intensive migratory move¬ ments, more significant dynamization of its economic development, modernization of -the economic structure, significant employment increase and resolution of the unem¬ ployment problem did not happen. According to the level of development, between 1971 and 1994 Resen remained in the group of underdeveloped areas, whereas Bito¬ la from the eighth place did slide to 15-th place in 1985. > The results of the research in the municipalities of Bitola and Resen confirmed the theoretical and empirical cognition that most pictorial representation notion on the mi¬ grations and the development are obtained by conducting the research on smaller areas. IV. The Emigration and Future Socio-economic Development of the Republic of Macedonia > The cognition on the potential migration which today, according to several indices and individual estimates, have reached alarming dimensions, refer to the conclusion that the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia will continue in the future; with compara¬ tively large intensity. Part of it are the unemployed and employed persons, primarily those with higher education, part of the young scientists from the faculties of the natural and technical sciences as well as the persons that are acquiring abroad their education or professional development. The transformation of the potential migration into definite one will depend on the future development processes in the country, changes in the personal appraisal of the persons intending to move abroad, and in a great extend, immigration policies of the potential receiving countries. Having in mind the realistically achievable dynamics of the econo¬ mic growth and the possibilities in resolving the unemployment problem, one can esti- 402 Summary mate that on the short and medium term, the Republic of Macedonia will face compara¬ tively large migration potential and still intensive emigration. > The consequences and the implications of the emigration on the demographic and eco¬ nomic development will be determined by the current and future volume and intensity of those movements. The projections for the population up to 2020 show that, if the emi¬ gration continues with the same intensity, it will have considerable influence on the future population increase and the acceleration of the demographic aging process. The future emigration of persons with higher degree of education will be reflected on the volume and quality of the available labour force and it could cause the disruption in the structural, sectoral and regional distribution of the labour force in the country. The in¬ flow of foreign currency will in the future depend on the share of the permanent and temporary migrations and the volume of the return streams. Its influence on the balance of payment and internal financial flows, as well as on the improvement of the wealth and standard of living of part of the population, will be of great significance. ^ The problem of intensive emigration cannot be overcome by partial short-term measu¬ res. The solution is to be sought in a comprehensive medium and long-term development policy. The numerous limitations, which today the country faces, are prompting a se¬ lective approach to the problem and socially rational selection of priorities. In reducing the enormous scale of emigration and potential migration in the medium-term, the prior¬ ities of the country should be in overcoming social and economic crisis, in reducing the unemployment, in stimulating and supporting the scientific and research activities and in creating the provisions for the intensification of return streams. ^ The absence of the migration policy in the Republic of Macedonia in the last four deca¬ des emphasized the negative effects of the emigration. Defining and acquiring the con¬ sistent and transparent long-term migration policy is today imposed as inevitable. It should be directed toward overcoming the current situation of sizeable permanent emigra¬ tions and utilizing large available potentials of migrants in the benefit of the development of the country. It implies corresponding measures and instruments to stimulate the tempo¬ rary employment and stay abroad, the activities related to the return of the migrants and its reintegration in the economic and social life, as well as the measures aimed at incre¬ asing the foreign exchange inflow and its productive utilization. 403
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spelling	Janeska, Verica Verfasser aut Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj Verica Janeska Skopje Univ. "Sv. Kiril i Metodij", Ekonomski Inst. 2001 415 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier PST: Contemporary international migrations, the emigration from the Republic of Macedonia and the socio-economic development. - In kyrill. Schr., mazedon. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache Abwanderung (DE-588)4141185-7 gnd rswk-swf Internationale Migration (DE-588)4162051-3 gnd rswk-swf Sozioökonomischer Wandel (DE-588)4318539-3 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Nordmazedonien (DE-588)1181214262 gnd rswk-swf Nordmazedonien (DE-588)1181214262 g Sozioökonomischer Wandel (DE-588)4318539-3 s Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s DE-604 Abwanderung (DE-588)4141185-7 s Internationale Migration (DE-588)4162051-3 s Digitalisierung BSBMuenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016536707&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016536707&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract
spellingShingle	Janeska, Verica Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj Abwanderung (DE-588)4141185-7 gnd Internationale Migration (DE-588)4162051-3 gnd Sozioökonomischer Wandel (DE-588)4318539-3 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4141185-7 (DE-588)4162051-3 (DE-588)4318539-3 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)1181214262
title	Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj
title_auth	Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj
title_exact_search	Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj
title_exact_search_txtP	Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj
title_full	Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj Verica Janeska
title_fullStr	Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj Verica Janeska
title_full_unstemmed	Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj Verica Janeska
title_short	Sovremenite meǵunarodni migracii, emigracijata od Republika Makedonija i socio-ekonomskiot razvoj
title_sort	sovremenite megunarodni migracii emigracijata od republika makedonija i socio ekonomskiot razvoj
topic	Abwanderung (DE-588)4141185-7 gnd Internationale Migration (DE-588)4162051-3 gnd Sozioökonomischer Wandel (DE-588)4318539-3 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd
topic_facet	Abwanderung Internationale Migration Sozioökonomischer Wandel Bevölkerungsentwicklung Nordmazedonien
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016536707&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016536707&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
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