Risk dilemmas: forced choices and survival
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
Palgrave Macmillan
2007
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Contributor biographical information Publisher description Table of contents only Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index Erscheint: Februar 2008 |
| Beschreibung: | IX, 137 S. |
| ISBN: | 0230538711 9780230538719 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Introduction vii
1 A Review of High-Stakes Decision Criteria 1
1.1 Formalizing risky decisions 1
1.2 The expected value criterion 3
1.3 Decision criteria when probability is unknown or
irrelevant 5
1.4 Conditions for indifference between fatalism and
precaution 7
Appendix: A fuzzy representation of danger 10
2 Finding Alternatives to Risk 15
2.1 The preactionary approach 16
2.2 Identifying alternatives using backcasting 18
2.3 Backcasting under uncertainty 22
2.4 Backcasting versus backtracking 24
2.5 Maintaining the balance of life 26
2.6 Contrasting the post-fact approach 28
2.7 Cost/benefit and post-fact risk management 29
2.8 Avoiding mechanistic precaution 32
2.9 Risk acceptance - risk avoidance - risk anticipation 34
3 Risk Avoidance: All or Nothing 36
3.1 How risk grows 36
3.2 Why prioritization fails 39
3.3 Pragmatic arguments for not adding risks 40
3.4 Satisfying the burden of proof 41
3.5 A possibilistic model of catastrophic potentials 42
3.6 Is there a natural level of risk? 45
3.7 On the notion of selective fatalism 47
3.8 Selective fatalism and dilemmas 50
3.9 The tolerability compromise 52
4 Precaution in Context 56
4.1 The hallmarks of precaution 56
4.2 Context and risk acceptance criteria 58
4.3 The problem of valuation 60
4.4 Inter-contextual effects of precaution 61
4.5 Alternatives assessment across contexts 65
4.6 The need for coordinated goals 66
5 A Reassessment of Risk Assessment 68
5.1 Using risk assessments the right way 69
5.2 Identifying high-stakes risks and their mechanisms 70
5.3 Decision theoretic models 75
5.4 Integrating fuzzy risk thresholds 78
6 Can We Avoid Risk Dilemmas? 81
6.1 The only two options 82
6.2 Facing the paradox of progress 83
6.3 Risk dilemmas and self-interest 85
6.4 The prospect of infinite disutility 89
6.5 The need for a wider approach to science 91
6.6 Radical rethinking 93
6.7 Science to the rescue? 96
6.8 The dangers of giving up 100
7 Summary and Conclusion (of Sorts) 102
7.1 Understanding high-stakes decision processes 103
7.2 Making precaution work 104
7.3 How do current regimes compare? 106
7.4 Doing the right thing 109
7.5 Who will lead the way? 113
Notes 118
References 127
Index 132
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Introduction vii
1 A Review of High-Stakes Decision Criteria 1
1.1 Formalizing risky decisions 1
1.2 The expected value criterion 3
1.3 Decision criteria when probability is unknown or
irrelevant 5
1.4 Conditions for indifference between fatalism and
precaution 7
Appendix: A fuzzy representation of danger 10
2 Finding Alternatives to Risk 15
2.1 The preactionary approach 16
2.2 Identifying alternatives using backcasting 18
2.3 Backcasting under uncertainty 22
2.4 Backcasting versus backtracking 24
2.5 Maintaining the balance of life 26
2.6 Contrasting the "post-fact" approach 28
2.7 Cost/benefit and post-fact risk management 29
2.8 Avoiding mechanistic precaution 32
2.9 Risk acceptance - risk avoidance - risk anticipation 34
3 Risk Avoidance: All or Nothing 36
3.1 How risk grows 36
3.2 Why prioritization fails 39
3.3 Pragmatic arguments for not adding risks 40
3.4 Satisfying the burden of proof 41
3.5 A possibilistic model of catastrophic potentials 42
3.6 Is there a "natural" level of risk? 45
3.7 On the notion of "selective fatalism" 47
3.8 Selective fatalism and dilemmas 50
3.9 The "tolerability" compromise 52
4 Precaution in Context 56
4.1 The hallmarks of precaution 56
4.2 Context and risk acceptance criteria 58
4.3 The problem of valuation 60
4.4 Inter-contextual effects of precaution 61
4.5 Alternatives assessment across contexts 65
4.6 The need for coordinated goals 66
5 A Reassessment of Risk Assessment 68
5.1 Using risk assessments the right way 69
5.2 Identifying high-stakes risks and their mechanisms 70
5.3 Decision theoretic models 75
5.4 Integrating fuzzy risk thresholds 78
6 Can We Avoid Risk Dilemmas? 81
6.1 The only two options 82
6.2 Facing the paradox of progress 83
6.3 Risk dilemmas and self-interest 85
6.4 The prospect of "infinite disutility" 89
6.5 The need for a wider approach to science 91
6.6 Radical rethinking 93
6.7 Science to the rescue? 96
6.8 The dangers of giving up 100
7 Summary and Conclusion (of Sorts) 102
7.1 Understanding high-stakes decision processes 103
7.2 Making precaution work 104
7.3 How do current regimes compare? 106
7.4 Doing the right thing 109
7.5 Who will lead the way? 113
Notes 118
References 127
Index 132 |
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| id | DE-604.BV023300271 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T20:46:21Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:15:19Z |
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| isbn | 0230538711 9780230538719 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Jablonowski, Mark Verfasser aut Risk dilemmas forced choices and survival Mark Jablonowski 1. publ. Basingstoke [u.a.] Palgrave Macmillan 2007 IX, 137 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Erscheint: Februar 2008 Risikomanagement / Entscheidungstheorie Risk management Emergency management Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Krisenmanagement (DE-588)4127374-6 gnd rswk-swf Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s DE-604 Krisenmanagement (DE-588)4127374-6 s http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0809/2007048688-b.html Contributor biographical information http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0809/2007048688-d.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0809/2007048688-t.html Table of contents only HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016484742&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Jablonowski, Mark Risk dilemmas forced choices and survival Risikomanagement / Entscheidungstheorie Risk management Emergency management Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Krisenmanagement (DE-588)4127374-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4121590-4 (DE-588)4127374-6 |
| title | Risk dilemmas forced choices and survival |
| title_auth | Risk dilemmas forced choices and survival |
| title_exact_search | Risk dilemmas forced choices and survival |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Risk dilemmas forced choices and survival |
| title_full | Risk dilemmas forced choices and survival Mark Jablonowski |
| title_fullStr | Risk dilemmas forced choices and survival Mark Jablonowski |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk dilemmas forced choices and survival Mark Jablonowski |
| title_short | Risk dilemmas |
| title_sort | risk dilemmas forced choices and survival |
| title_sub | forced choices and survival |
| topic | Risikomanagement / Entscheidungstheorie Risk management Emergency management Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Krisenmanagement (DE-588)4127374-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Risikomanagement / Entscheidungstheorie Risk management Emergency management Risikomanagement Krisenmanagement |
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