Predicting presidential elections and other things:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Stanford, Calif.
Stanford Univ. Press
2002
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Contributor biographical information Publisher description Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | 168 p. graph. Darst. 25 cm |
| ISBN: | 0804745099 |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000zc 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV023298725 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 00000000000000.0 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 080514s2002 xxud||| |||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 010 | |a 2002021186 | ||
| 020 | |a 0804745099 |c alk. paper |9 0-8047-4509-9 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)49277084 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)DNB 2002021186 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 044 | |a xxu |c US | ||
| 049 | |a DE-19 | ||
| 050 | 0 | |a HM901 | |
| 082 | 0 | |a 303.4973 | |
| 100 | 1 | |a Fair, Ray C. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Predicting presidential elections and other things |c Ray C. Fair |
| 264 | 1 | |a Stanford, Calif. |b Stanford Univ. Press |c 2002 | |
| 300 | |a 168 p. |b graph. Darst. |c 25 cm | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
| 650 | 7 | |a Presidenten |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Présidents - États-Unis - Élection - Prévision | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Prévision sociale | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Prévision économique | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Verkiezingen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Voorspellingen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Élections - Prévision - États-Unis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Social prediction | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Presidents |z United States |x Election |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Election forecasting |z United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic forecasting | |
| 651 | 4 | |a USA | |
| 856 | 4 | |u http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0710/2002021186-b.html |3 Contributor biographical information | |
| 856 | 4 | |u http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0710/2002021186-d.html |3 Publisher description | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m HBZ Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016483211&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016483211 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804137625814040576 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Introduction: What This Book Is About 1
1 It s the Economy, Stupid 5
A Theory of Voting Behavior 6
The Data 13
On to the Tools 15
2 The Tools in Seven Easy Lessons 16
(Monday) Lesson 1: Begin with a Theory 16
(Tuesday) Lesson 2: Collect Data 17
(Wednesday) Lesson 3: Fit the Data 17
(Thursday) Lesson 4: Test 22
(Friday) Lesson 5: Think About Pitfalls 31
(Saturday) Lesson 6: Examine the Results 33
(Sunday) Lesson 7: Predict 34
Adding More Variables 37
Testing for Other Variables 40
Conclusion 41
3 Presidential Elections 43
A Theory of Voting Behavior 43
The Data 44
Fit and Test and Examine 46
Possible Pitfalls 51
What About the Electoral College? 54
Contents
Do Campaigns Matter? 55
Manipulating the Economy to Increase Votes 56
Does Congress Matter? 57
Do Voters Really Know the Growth Rate and
Inflation Numbers? 57
4 Predicting the 2000 and 2004 Elections 59
After-the-Fact Prediction of the 2000 Election 59
Real-Time Predictions of the 2000 Election 61
Real-Time Predictions of the 2004 Election Using
the 1996 Coefficients 63
Real-Time Predictions of the 2004 Election Using
the 2000 Coefficients 66
5 Extramarital Affairs 67
A Theory of Extramarital Affairs 68
The Data 71
Fit and Test 76
Possible Pitfalls 78
Examine the Results and Predict 81
Conclusion 82
6 Wine Quality 83
Theory and Data 83
Fit the Data 87
Possible Pitfalls 89
Predict 91
Can One Make Money? 95
7 College Grades and Class Attendance 97
Theory and Data 98
Fit, Test, and Examine the Results 100
Possible Pitfalls 103
Predict 104
8 Marathon Times 105
A Theory of the Slowdown Rate 106
The Data 108
Fit 110
Use the Results 116
Other Results 118
Conclusion 121
Contents vii
9 Interest Rates 122
A Theory of Fed Behavior 124
The Data 127
Fit and Test 129
Possible Pitfalls 131
Examine the Results 134
Predict Fed Behavior 137
10 Inflation 140
A Theory of Price Setting Behavior 141
The Data 145
Fit and Test 145
Pitfalls 147
Examine the Results and Predict 150
Inflation and the Fed 151
11 More Things 153
Chapter Notes 155
Glossary 159
Poetry Credits 161
Index 163
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Introduction: What This Book Is About 1
1 It's the Economy, Stupid 5
A Theory of Voting Behavior 6
The Data 13
On to the Tools 15
2 The Tools in Seven Easy Lessons 16
(Monday) Lesson 1: Begin with a Theory 16
(Tuesday) Lesson 2: Collect Data 17
(Wednesday) Lesson 3: Fit the Data 17
(Thursday) Lesson 4: Test 22
(Friday) Lesson 5: Think About Pitfalls 31
(Saturday) Lesson 6: Examine the Results 33
(Sunday) Lesson 7: Predict 34
Adding More Variables 37
Testing for Other Variables 40
Conclusion 41
3 Presidential Elections 43
A Theory of Voting Behavior 43
The Data 44
Fit and Test and Examine 46
Possible Pitfalls 51
What About the Electoral College? 54
Contents
Do Campaigns Matter? 55
Manipulating the Economy to Increase Votes 56
Does Congress Matter? 57
Do Voters Really Know the Growth Rate and
Inflation Numbers? 57
4 Predicting the 2000 and 2004 Elections 59
After-the-Fact Prediction of the 2000 Election 59
Real-Time Predictions of the 2000 Election 61
Real-Time Predictions of the 2004 Election Using
the 1996 Coefficients 63
Real-Time Predictions of the 2004 Election Using
the 2000 Coefficients 66
5 Extramarital Affairs 67
A Theory of Extramarital Affairs 68
The Data 71
Fit and Test 76
Possible Pitfalls 78
Examine the Results and Predict 81
Conclusion 82
6 Wine Quality 83
Theory and Data 83
Fit the Data 87
Possible Pitfalls 89
Predict 91
Can One Make Money? 95
7 College Grades and Class Attendance 97
Theory and Data 98
Fit, Test, and Examine the Results 100
Possible Pitfalls 103
Predict 104
8 Marathon Times 105
A Theory of the Slowdown Rate 106
The Data 108
Fit 110
Use the Results 116
Other Results 118
Conclusion 121
Contents vii
9 Interest Rates 122
A Theory of Fed Behavior 124
The Data 127
Fit and Test 129
Possible Pitfalls 131
Examine the Results 134
Predict Fed Behavior 137
10 Inflation 140
A Theory of Price Setting Behavior 141
The Data 145
Fit and Test 145
Pitfalls 147
Examine the Results and Predict 150
Inflation and the Fed 151
11 More Things 153
Chapter Notes 155
Glossary 159
Poetry Credits 161
Index 163 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Fair, Ray C. |
| author_facet | Fair, Ray C. |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Fair, Ray C. |
| author_variant | r c f rc rcf |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV023298725 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HM901 |
| callnumber-raw | HM901 |
| callnumber-search | HM901 |
| callnumber-sort | HM 3901 |
| callnumber-subject | HM - Sociology |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)49277084 (DE-599)DNB 2002021186 |
| dewey-full | 303.4973 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 303 - Social processes |
| dewey-raw | 303.4973 |
| dewey-search | 303.4973 |
| dewey-sort | 3303.4973 |
| dewey-tens | 300 - Social sciences |
| discipline | Soziologie |
| discipline_str_mv | Soziologie |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01873nam a2200493zc 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV023298725</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">00000000000000.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">080514s2002 xxud||| |||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="010" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">2002021186</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">0804745099</subfield><subfield code="c">alk. paper</subfield><subfield code="9">0-8047-4509-9</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)49277084</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)DNB 2002021186</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="044" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xxu</subfield><subfield code="c">US</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">HM901</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">303.4973</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Fair, Ray C.</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Predicting presidential elections and other things</subfield><subfield code="c">Ray C. Fair</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Stanford, Calif.</subfield><subfield code="b">Stanford Univ. Press</subfield><subfield code="c">2002</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">168 p.</subfield><subfield code="b">graph. Darst.</subfield><subfield code="c">25 cm</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Includes bibliographical references and index</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Presidenten</subfield><subfield code="2">gtt</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Présidents - États-Unis - Élection - Prévision</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Prévision sociale</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Prévision économique</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Verkiezingen</subfield><subfield code="2">gtt</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Voorspellingen</subfield><subfield code="2">gtt</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Élections - Prévision - États-Unis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Social prediction</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Presidents</subfield><subfield code="z">United States</subfield><subfield code="x">Election</subfield><subfield code="x">Forecasting</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Election forecasting</subfield><subfield code="z">United States</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economic forecasting</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="651" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">USA</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0710/2002021186-b.html</subfield><subfield code="3">Contributor biographical information</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0710/2002021186-d.html</subfield><subfield code="3">Publisher description</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">HBZ Datenaustausch</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016483211&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016483211</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| geographic | USA |
| geographic_facet | USA |
| id | DE-604.BV023298725 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T20:45:42Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:15:16Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0804745099 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2002021186 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016483211 |
| oclc_num | 49277084 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| owner_facet | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | 168 p. graph. Darst. 25 cm |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| publishDateSearch | 2002 |
| publishDateSort | 2002 |
| publisher | Stanford Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Fair, Ray C. Verfasser aut Predicting presidential elections and other things Ray C. Fair Stanford, Calif. Stanford Univ. Press 2002 168 p. graph. Darst. 25 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Presidenten gtt Présidents - États-Unis - Élection - Prévision Prévision sociale Prévision économique Verkiezingen gtt Voorspellingen gtt Élections - Prévision - États-Unis Social prediction Presidents United States Election Forecasting Election forecasting United States Economic forecasting USA http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0710/2002021186-b.html Contributor biographical information http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0710/2002021186-d.html Publisher description HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016483211&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Fair, Ray C. Predicting presidential elections and other things Presidenten gtt Présidents - États-Unis - Élection - Prévision Prévision sociale Prévision économique Verkiezingen gtt Voorspellingen gtt Élections - Prévision - États-Unis Social prediction Presidents United States Election Forecasting Election forecasting United States Economic forecasting |
| title | Predicting presidential elections and other things |
| title_auth | Predicting presidential elections and other things |
| title_exact_search | Predicting presidential elections and other things |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Predicting presidential elections and other things |
| title_full | Predicting presidential elections and other things Ray C. Fair |
| title_fullStr | Predicting presidential elections and other things Ray C. Fair |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting presidential elections and other things Ray C. Fair |
| title_short | Predicting presidential elections and other things |
| title_sort | predicting presidential elections and other things |
| topic | Presidenten gtt Présidents - États-Unis - Élection - Prévision Prévision sociale Prévision économique Verkiezingen gtt Voorspellingen gtt Élections - Prévision - États-Unis Social prediction Presidents United States Election Forecasting Election forecasting United States Economic forecasting |
| topic_facet | Presidenten Présidents - États-Unis - Élection - Prévision Prévision sociale Prévision économique Verkiezingen Voorspellingen Élections - Prévision - États-Unis Social prediction Presidents United States Election Forecasting Election forecasting United States Economic forecasting USA |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0710/2002021186-b.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0710/2002021186-d.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016483211&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fairrayc predictingpresidentialelectionsandotherthings |