Choices: an introduction to decision theory
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Minneapolis [u.a.]
Univ. of Minnesota Press
2006
|
| Ausgabe: | 7. print. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIII, 221 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0816614393 0816614407 |
Internformat
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| 264 | 1 | |a Minneapolis [u.a.] |b Univ. of Minnesota Press |c 2006 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804137594820231168 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
MMMMIII
PREFACE
xi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
xiii
Chapter
1
Introduction
3
1-1
What Is Decision Theory?
3
1-2
The Basic Framework
6
l-2a Some Philosophical Problems about Problem
Specifications
8
1-3
Certainty, Ignorance, and Risk
13
l-3a Some Details of Formulation
14
1-4
Decision Trees
17
1-5
References
19
Chapter
2
Decisions under Ignorance
21
2-1
Preference
Orderings
22
2-2
The
Maximin
Rule
26
2-3
The Minimax Regret Rule
28
2-4
The Optimism-Pessimism Rule
33
2-5
The Principle of Insufficient Reason
35
2-6
Too Many Rules?
38
2-7
An Application in Social Philosophy:
Rawls vs.
Harsány
і
41
2-8
References
44
Chapter
3
Decisions under Risk: Probability
45
3-1
Maximizing Expected Values
45
3-2
Probability Theory
47
3-2a Bayes s Theorem without Priors
55
3-2b Bayes s Theorem and the Value of Additional
Information
57
3-2c
Statistical Decision Theory and Decisions
under Ignorance
59
3-3
Interpretations of Probability
61
3-3a The Classical View
62
3-3b The Relative Frequency View
65
3-3c Subjective Views
68
3-3d Coherence and Conditionalization
75
3-4
References
79
Chapter
4
Decisions under Risk: Utility
81
4-1
Interval Utility Scales
81
4-2
Monetary Values vs. Utilities
85
4-3 Von Neumann-Morgenstern
Utility Theory
88
4-3a Some Comments and Qualifications on the
Expected Utility Theorem
98
4-4
Criticisms of Utility Theory
101
4-4a Allais s Paradox
103
4-4b Ellsberg s Paradox
105
4-4c The St. Petersburg Paradox
107
4-5
The Predictor Paradox
109
4-6
Causal Decision Theory
112
4-6a Objections and Alternatives
115
4-6b Concluding Remarks on the Paradoxes
118
4-7
References
119
Chapter
5
Game Theory
121
5-1
The Basic Concepts of Game Theory
121
5-2
Two-Person Strictly Competitive Games
127
5-3
Equilibrium Strategy Pairs
129
5-3a Mixed Strategies
132
5-3b Proof of the
Maximin
Theorem
for Two-by-Two Games
137
5-3c A Shortcut
139
5-3d On Taking Chances
141
5-4
Two-Person Nonzero Sum Games: Failures
of the Equilibrium Concept
144
5-4a The Clash of Wills
144
5-4b The Prisoner s Dilemma
147
5-4c Other Prisoner s Dilemmas
148
5-4d The Prisoner s Dilemma and the Predictor
150
5-4e Morals for Rationality and Morality
151
5-5
Cooperative Games
157
5-5a Bargaining Games
159
5-6
Games
with Three or More Players
167
5-7
References
175
Chapter
6
Social Choices
177
6-1
The Problem of Social Choice
177
6-2
Arrow s Theorem
180
6-2a Arrow s Conditions
180
6-2b Arrow s Theorem and Its Proof
186
6-3
Majority Rule
191
6-4
Utilitarianism
196
6-4a Harsanyi s Theorem
197
6-4b Critique of Harsanyi s Theorem
200
6-4c Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility
205
6-5
References
212
BIBLIOGRAPHY
215
INDEX
219
|
| adam_txt |
CONTENTS
MMMMIII
PREFACE
xi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
xiii
Chapter
1
Introduction
3
1-1
What Is Decision Theory?
3
1-2
The Basic Framework
6
l-2a Some Philosophical Problems about Problem
Specifications
8
1-3
Certainty, Ignorance, and Risk
13
l-3a Some Details of Formulation
14
1-4
Decision Trees
17
1-5
References
19
Chapter
2
Decisions under Ignorance
21
2-1
Preference
Orderings
22
2-2
The
Maximin
Rule
26
2-3
The Minimax Regret Rule
28
2-4
The Optimism-Pessimism Rule
33
2-5
The Principle of Insufficient Reason
35
2-6
Too Many Rules?
38
2-7
An Application in Social Philosophy:
Rawls vs.
Harsány
і
41
2-8
References
44
Chapter
3
Decisions under Risk: Probability
45
3-1
Maximizing Expected Values
45
3-2
Probability Theory
47
3-2a Bayes's Theorem without Priors
55
3-2b Bayes's Theorem and the Value of Additional
Information
57
3-2c
Statistical Decision Theory and Decisions
under Ignorance
59
3-3
Interpretations of Probability
61
3-3a The Classical View
62
3-3b The Relative Frequency View
65
3-3c Subjective Views
68
3-3d Coherence and Conditionalization
75
3-4
References
79
Chapter
4
Decisions under Risk: Utility
81
4-1
Interval Utility Scales
81
4-2
Monetary Values vs. Utilities
85
4-3 Von Neumann-Morgenstern
Utility Theory
88
4-3a Some Comments and Qualifications on the
Expected Utility Theorem
98
4-4
Criticisms of Utility Theory
101
4-4a Allais's Paradox
103
4-4b Ellsberg's Paradox
105
4-4c The St. Petersburg Paradox
107
4-5
The Predictor Paradox
109
4-6
Causal Decision Theory
112
4-6a Objections and Alternatives
115
4-6b Concluding Remarks on the Paradoxes
118
4-7
References
119
Chapter
5
Game Theory
121
5-1
The Basic Concepts of Game Theory
121
5-2
Two-Person Strictly Competitive Games
127
5-3
Equilibrium Strategy Pairs
129
5-3a Mixed Strategies
132
5-3b Proof of the
Maximin
Theorem
for Two-by-Two Games
137
5-3c A Shortcut
139
5-3d On Taking Chances
141
5-4
Two-Person Nonzero Sum Games: Failures
of the Equilibrium Concept
144
5-4a The Clash of Wills
144
5-4b The Prisoner's Dilemma
147
5-4c Other Prisoner's Dilemmas
148
5-4d The Prisoner's Dilemma and the Predictor
150
5-4e Morals for Rationality and Morality
151
5-5
Cooperative Games
157
5-5a Bargaining Games
159
5-6
Games
with Three or More Players
167
5-7
References
175
Chapter
6
Social Choices
177
6-1
The Problem of Social Choice
177
6-2
Arrow's Theorem
180
6-2a Arrow's Conditions
180
6-2b Arrow's Theorem and Its Proof
186
6-3
Majority Rule
191
6-4
Utilitarianism
196
6-4a Harsanyi's Theorem
197
6-4b Critique of Harsanyi's Theorem
200
6-4c Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility
205
6-5
References
212
BIBLIOGRAPHY
215
INDEX
219 |
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| spelling | Resnik, Michael D. 1938- Verfasser (DE-588)12262047X aut Choices an introduction to decision theory Michael D. Resnik 7. print. Minneapolis [u.a.] Univ. of Minnesota Press 2006 XIII, 221 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4151278-9 Einführung gnd-content Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016462515&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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| title | Choices an introduction to decision theory |
| title_auth | Choices an introduction to decision theory |
| title_exact_search | Choices an introduction to decision theory |
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| title_full | Choices an introduction to decision theory Michael D. Resnik |
| title_fullStr | Choices an introduction to decision theory Michael D. Resnik |
| title_full_unstemmed | Choices an introduction to decision theory Michael D. Resnik |
| title_short | Choices |
| title_sort | choices an introduction to decision theory |
| title_sub | an introduction to decision theory |
| topic | Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entscheidungstheorie Einführung |
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