Population-level ecological risk assessment:
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boca Raton [u.a.]
Taylor & Francis [u.a.]
2008
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Environmental chemistry and toxicology
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Literaturverz. S. 247 - 284 und 307 - 321 |
| Beschreibung: | XXXVI, 337 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9781420053326 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Population-level ecological risk assessment |c Lawrence W. Barnthouse, Wayne R. Munns, Jr., Mary T. Sorensen |
| 264 | 1 | |a Boca Raton [u.a.] |b Taylor & Francis [u.a.] |c 2008 | |
| 300 | |a XXXVI, 337 S. |b Ill., graph. Darst. | ||
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| 490 | 0 | |a Environmental chemistry and toxicology | |
| 500 | |a Literaturverz. S. 247 - 284 und 307 - 321 | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Population biology | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Ecological risk assessment | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ecological risk assessment | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population biology | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Barnthouse, Lawrence W. |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Munns, Wayne R. |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sorensen, Mary T. |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804137479655129088 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Population-level ecological risk assessment
Autor: Barnthouse, Lawrence W.
Jahr: 2008
Contents
List of Figures........................................................................................................xv
List of Tables........................................................................................................xvii
Foreword................................................................................................................xix
Preface..................................................................................................................xxiii
Acknowledgments................................................................................................xxv
About the Editors..............................................................................................xxvii
Workshop Participants.......................................................................................xxxi
Glossary of Key Terms......................................................................................xxxv
Chapter 1: Introduction........................................................................................1
Lawrence W. Barnthouse, Wayne R. Munns, Jr., and Mary T. Sorensen
THE MANAGEMENT-SCIENCE INTERFACE
Chapter 2: Managing Risk to Ecological Populations.......................................7
Gregory R. Biddinger, Peter Calow, Peter Delorme, Glenn Harris, Bruce Hope,
Bin-Le Lin, Mary T. Sorensen, and Paul van den Brink
Introduction...........................................................................................................7
Risk Management and Risk Assessment Context for Population-Level
Ecological Risk Assessment...................................................................7
Population-Level ERA Applications....................................................................8
Laws, Regulations, Policies, Narrative Goals, and Directives That
Protect the Environment.......................................................................11
United States..................................................................................................11
Risk Management Tools: US ERA Approaches Often Used to
Address Population-Level Goals..........................................................18
Canada............................................................................................................20
Risk Management Tools: A Canadian ERA Example..............................22
European Union.............................................................................................23
Risk Management Tools: An ERA Approach for the
European Commission..........................................................................24
Japan...............................................................................................................25
Risk Management Tools: A Case Study for Japan...................................27
Benefits and Challenges of Risk Management with Population-Level ERA.... 27
Ecological Relevance.....................................................................................27
Regulatory Value............................................................................................28
Challenges to Risk Management with Population-Level ERA.....................29
Need to Define Appropriateness of Use...................................................29
vii
Defining the Assessment Population........................................................29
Need to Define Acceptable Population-Level Risk..................................30
Need for Additional Resources.................................................................31
Need for the Application of Lessons Learned..........................................32
Need for Training and Guidance..............................................................32
Need for Improved Risk Communication................................................33
Achieving Risk Management with Population-Level ERA...............................35
Perform Basic and Applied Research............................................................35
Engage Risk Managers..................................................................................36
Define Acceptable Risk..................................................................................36
Develop Accepted Tools................................................................................37
Develop Guidance..........................................................................................37
Provide Practitioner Training.........................................................................37
Develop a Risk Communication Strategy.....................................................38
Provide Risk Manager Training.....................................................................38
Achieving the Objective.................................................................................39
Chapter 3: Population Protection Goals...........................................................41
Charles Menzie, Nancy Bettinger, Alyce Fritz, Larry Kapustka,
Helen Regan, Vibeke Moiler, and Helen Noel
Introduction.........................................................................................................41
What Is a Population?........................................................................................41
The Assessment Population...........................................................................44
Attributes of Organisms and Populations......................................................46
Attributes of Organisms............................................................................46
Attributes of Populations..........................................................................48
Scales for the Assessment Population...........................................................54
Protection Goals for the Assessment Population...............................................56
Start with Management Goals.......................................................................56
Clearly State Protection Goals.......................................................................57
Smaller Scale Assessments.......................................................................59
Larger Scale Assessments.........................................................................60
Use Conceptual Models.................................................................................61
Assessment and Measurement Endpoints for the Assessment Population........61
Selecting Assessment Endpoints....................................................................61
Selecting Measures of Exposure and Effect..................................................62
Clarifying Definitions, Endpoints, and Approaches......................................63
Protection Goals and the Biological Population...........................................67
Recommendations...............................................................................................68
SCIENTIFIC ISSUES IN POPULATION-LEVEL
ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
Chapter 4: Density Dependence in Ecological Risk Assessment....................69
S. Jannicke Moe
Introduction.........................................................................................................69
History of the Density-Dependence Concept.....................................................69
Density-Dependent Processes and Population-Level Patterns...........................70
Density Dependence in Natural Resource Management...................................72
Potential Importance of Density Dependence in Ecological
Risk Assessment....................................................................................75
Aspects of Density Dependence....................................................................76
Aspects of Toxicant Effects...........................................................................81
Statistical Methods for Quantifying Density Dependence.................................82
Cohort Data....................................................................................................83
Time-Series Data............................................................................................85
Problems with Applying the Density-Dependence Concept..............................87
Detecting and Estimating Density Dependence............................................87
Predicting Effects of Density Dependence....................................................89
Recommendations for Treatment of Density Dependence in
Ecological Risk Assessments...............................................................89
Conclusions.........................................................................................................91
Chapter 5: Genetic Variation in Population-Level Ecological
Risk Assessment................................................................................................93
Diane Nacci and Ary A. Hoffmann
Introduction: Challenges and Opportunities for Genetics in
Population-Level Ecological Risk Assessment....................................93
Genetic Variation: Neutral, Adaptive, and Detrimental.....................................94
Neutral Genetic Variation and Population Condition.........................................95
Size and Richness: Effective Population Size and Genetic Diversity..........96
Uniqueness: Geographic Distribution and Differentiation............................97
Adaptive Genetic Variation and Fitness.............................................................98
Estimating Fitness..........................................................................................98
Establishing Causal Connections between Fitness Effects and Genes.......100
Predicting Adaptive Shifts...........................................................................101
Genetic Variation and Risks from Chemical Exposures..................................103
Selection and Adaptation to Chemical Exposures......................................104
Evidence of Chemical Adaptation...............................................................105
Genetic Contributions to Population-Level ERA.............................................108
Genetic Contributions to Empirical Assessments.......................................108
Genetic Contributions to Modeling Assessments........................................109
Future Research Needs and Challenges......................................................Ill
Conclusions.......................................................................................................112
Chapter 6: The Spatial Structure of Populations and
Ecological Risk Assessment............................................................................113
Wayne G. Landis and Andrew Deines
Introduction.......................................................................................................113
A Short History............................................................................................113
Introduction to This Chapter........................................................................114
Populations in Space.........................................................................................114
Examples of Spatial Structure.....................................................................116
Application of Metapopulation and Patch-Dynamic Models to
Investigate Toxicant Effects...............................................................118
Experimental Results........................................................................................123
A Metapopulation Experiment to Simulate Toxicant Effects.....................123
Application of Spatial Relationships into the Risk Assessment of
Populations.........................................................................................123
Consideration of Spatial Structure of Populations in Risk Assessment.....123
The Problem of the Reference Site.............................................................124
Tools for the Analysis of Spatial Relationships..........................................124
When to Ignore Spatial Structure?..............................................................125
Expansion of Risk Assessment beyond Chemical Impacts........................125
Summary...........................................................................................................127
Chapter 7: What Conservation Biology and Natural Resource
Management Can Offer Population-Level Ecological Risk Assessment.....129
Jennifer A. Gervais and Helen M. Regan
Introduction.......................................................................................................129
Environmental and Demographic Variation.....................................................130
Tools for Parameter Estimation........................................................................132
Demographic Parameter Estimation Techniques.........................................132
Population Size and Density Estimation Techniques..................................133
Minimizing Sampling and Parameter Estimation Error..............................133
Methods of Inference........................................................................................134
Information-Theoretic Approaches.............................................................134
Bayesian Techniques....................................................................................135
The Use of Population Models.........................................................................137
Retrospective versus Prospective Modeling................................................137
Prediction versus Projection........................................................................138
Heuristic versus Applied Models.................................................................139
Models and the Inescapable Uncertainty....................................................139
Coping with Uncertainty: Two Approaches................................................141
Solution 1: Simplify the Questions to Fit the Available Data...............141
Solution 2: Consider Multiple Working Hypotheses and
Seek Relative Answers.......................................................................142
Application, Interpretation, and Communication of Model Results...............144
A Realistic View of the Role of Models.....................................................144
Recognizing Model Limitations and Appropriate Usage............................144
Models as One Step in the Decision-Making Process................................145
A Precautionary Tale....................................................................................147
More Constructive Approaches....................................................................149
Conclusions.......................................................................................................150
APPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL ECOLOGICAL
RISK ASSESSMENT
Chapter 8: Empirical Approaches to Population-Level Ecological
Risk Assessment..............................................................................................151
Tina M. Carlsen, S. Jannicke Moe, Sandra Brasfield, Peter F. Chapman,
Ary Hoffmann, Wayne G. Landis, Diane E. Nacci, Helen Noel, and
Julann A. Spromberg
Introduction.......................................................................................................151
Empirical Data Useful in Population-Level ERAs..........................................154
Site Attributes...............................................................................................155
Biological Attributes of Assessment Population.........................................156
Attributes of Organisms..........................................................................158
Primary Population Attributes.................................................................158
Secondary Population Attributes.............................................................159
Life History.............................................................................................160
Empirical Methods for Characterizing Populations.........................................161
Habitat Characterization..............................................................................161
Biological Surveys.......................................................................................163
Demographic Studies...................................................................................164
Field Manipulation.......................................................................................165
Methods for Measuring Genetic Variation in Wild Populations.................166
Statistical Methods............................................................................................168
Examples...........................................................................................................169
Pesticide Registration...................................................................................169
Standard Laboratory Studies...................................................................169
Empirical Measurement of Population Effects — Aquatic Species......170
Empirical Measurement of Population Effects — Terrestrial Species .. 172
Terrestrial Wildlife Populations Inhabiting Contaminated Sites.................172
Habitat Evaluation...................................................................................173
Population Evaluation.............................................................................176
Recommendations.............................................................................................177
Chapter 9: Modeling Approaches to Population-Level Ecological Risk
Assessment.......................................................................................................179
Wayne R. Munns, Jr., Jennifer Gervais, Ary A. Hoffman, Udo Hommen,
Diane E. Nacci, Mayuko Nakamaru, Richard Sibly, and Chris J. Topping
Introduction.......................................................................................................179
Modeling Populations in Ecological Risk Assessment....................................181
Unstructured (Scalar) Models......................................................................182
Biologically Structured Models...................................................................185
Individual-Based Models.............................................................................191
Metapopulation Models...............................................................................194
Spatially Explicit Models............................................................................197
XII
Incorporating Genetic Attributes into Population Dynamics Models.............201
Modeling to Support Risk Management and Decision-Making......................205
Unresolved Issues and Recommendations.......................................................210
Chapter 10: A Framework for Population-Level Ecological
Risk Assessment..............................................................................................211
Randy Wentsel, Nelson Beyer, Valery Forbes, Steve Maund, and
Robert Pastorok
Development of Ecological Risk Assessment Framework..............................211
What Is ERA?..............................................................................................211
Other Frameworks for Population-Level ERA............................................213
Population Viability Analysis..................................................................213
Scientific Steering Committee of the European Commission s Health
and Consumer Protection Directorate-General..................................214
Oak Ridge National Laboratory Framework..........................................214
A Framework for Population-Level ERA........................................................215
Overview of the Framework........................................................................215
Defining the Management Issues and Decision Criteria.............................217
Problem Formulation...................................................................................217
Is a Population-Level Risk Assessment Warranted?...................................220
How Will It Add Value?...............................................................................220
Define Assessment Population for Purposes of the Risk Assessment........221
Define the Properties and Attributes (Assessment Endpoints) of the
Population of Concern........................................................................221
Develop the Conceptual Model...................................................................222
Select Methods to Be Used to Estimate Population Risk...........................222
Empirical Methods.......................................................................................224
Modeling Approaches..................................................................................225
Analysis.............................................................................................................228
Components of the Analysis Phase of a Population-Level ERA................228
Applying Empirical Approaches..................................................................228
Applying Population Models.......................................................................230
Derivation of Stressor-Response Relationships...........................................231
Integrating the Results of Empirical and Modeling Approaches................231
Risk Characterization........................................................................................232
Risk Estimation............................................................................................232
Risk Estimates Derived from Empirical Approaches.............................233
Risk Estimates Derived from Population Models..................................233
Risk Description...........................................................................................235
Identify and Discuss Variability and Uncertainty.......................................237
Communication to Managers.......................................................................237
A PATH FORWARD
Chapter 11: Issues and Recommendations......................................................239
Wayne R. Munns, Jr., Lawrence W. Barnthouse, and Mary T. Sorensen
Introduction.......................................................................................................239
XIII
Implementation Issues......................................................................................239
Decision Contexts Frame the Assessment...................................................240
Defining Assessment Population, Spatial Scale, and Temporal Frame......241
Balance of Empirical and Modeling Approaches.......................................242
Interpreting Significance of Population-Level Effects................................242
Guidance, Training, and Acceptance...........................................................244
Implications for Research and Development...................................................245
REFERENCES AND APPENDICES
References.............................................................................................................247
Appendix 1: Decision Context Scenarios.........................................................285
Appendix 1 (Al.l): Hazardous Waste Scenario..............................................285
Scenario: Hazardous Waste Site (Historic Releases).......................................285
Regulatory Context......................................................................................285
United States of America.............................................................................286
European Union...........................................................................................287
Canada..........................................................................................................287
Role of Risk Assessment in Supporting Management Decisions...............287
Current Risk Assessment Approaches.........................................................287
Levels at Which Assessment Endpoints Are Defined............................288
Assessment and Analytical Methods......................................................289
Risk Characterization Methods and Risk Descriptors...........................289
Rationale for Population-Level Assessment Methods.................................290
Appendix 1 (A1.2): European Water Framework Directive............................292
Scenario: European Water Framework Directive.............................................292
Regulatory Context......................................................................................292
Role of Risk Assessment in Supporting Management Decisions...............292
Current Risk Assessment Approach............................................................293
Rationale for Population-Level Assessment Methods.................................293
Appendix 1 (A1.3): Consequences of Exceeding Water and
Sediment Quality Standards...............................................................294
Scenario: Estimating Consequences of Exceeding Water and
Sediment Quality Standards...............................................................294
Regulatory Context......................................................................................294
Role of Risk Assessment in Supporting Management Decisions...............294
Current Risk Assessment Approach............................................................294
Rationale for Population-Level Assessment Methods.................................294
Appendix 1 (A1.4): Agricultural Pesticide Registration..................................295
Scenario: Agricultural Pesticide Registration...................................................295
Regulatory Context......................................................................................295
Role of Risk Assessment in Supporting Management Decisions...............296
Current Risk Assessment Approach............................................................296
Levels at Which Assessment Endpoints Are Defined............................297
XIV
Analytical Methods.................................................................................298
Risk Characterization Methods...............................................................298
Risk Description and Communication Methods.....................................299
Rationale for Population-Level Assessment Methods.................................299
Appendix 2: Workshop Exercise: Application of 2 Modeling Techniques
in a Theoretical Assessment for Agricultural Pesticide Registration........301
Chris Topping, Richard Sibly, Peter D. Delorme, Vibeke Moller,
Alyce T. Fritz, Niels Elmegaard, and Wayne R. Munns, Jr.
Pesticide Toxicity Data.....................................................................................301
Model Descriptions...........................................................................................302
Risk Scenarios...................................................................................................303
Simulation Results............................................................................................304
Exercise Conclusion.........................................................................................305
Appendix 3: Supplemental Reading.................................................................307
A3.1 Risk Assessment......................................................................................307
A3.2 Ecotoxicology.........................................................................................312
A3.3 Population Ecology.................................................................................318
Index......................................................................................................................323
List of Figures
Figure 2.1
Figure 3.1
Figure 3.2
Figure 3.3
Figure 4.1
Figure 4.2
Attributes influencing the objective of achieving increased use of pop-
ulation-level ecological risk assessment
Space-time relationships for considering environmental effects along
the continuum from organisms to metapopulations
Representation of 4 satellite populations that comprise a metapopulation
complex
Representation of different assessment populations overlain on a
metapopulation complex
Examples of density-dependent processes and population-level patterns,
based on theoretical population models
Models for density-dependent recruitment: Beverton-Holt model and
Ricker model
Figure 4.3 Main types of interaction between density and a toxicant, where both
density and toxicant separately have negative effects on population
growth rate
Figure 4.4 Different degrees of density-dependent compensatory responses
Figure 4.5 Positive density dependence in low densities: the Allee effect
Figure 4.6 Comparison of generalized additive models regression with linear
regression for fitting different recruitment functions
Figure 6.1 Spatial structure of patchy populations
Figure 6.2 Effects of toxicant or other stressors upon a metapopulation or patchy
population
Figure 7.1 The main components of a population viability analysis
Figure 8.1 The link between empirical studies and modeling for population-level
ecological risk assessment
Figure 9.1 Taxonomy of population models for population-level ecological risk
assessment
Figure 9.2 Factors affecting choice of models
Figure 10.1 A general framework for population-level ecological risk assessment
Figure 10.2 Problem formulation flow chart
Figure 10.3 Overview of the analysis phase of a population-level ecological risk
assessment
Figure 10.4 Examples of risk expressions for population-level ecological risk
assessment
Figure 10.5 Graphic representation of risk estimates for fish exposed to PCP
Figure A 1.1 Pictorial conceptual site model
Figure A 1.2 Schematic conceptual site model
Figure A 1.3 Simplified conceptual model
Figure A2.1 Population size for 5 scenarios over a period of 200 simulation years,
as projected by the biologically structured model
r xv
List of Tables
Table 2.1
Table 2.2
Table 2.3
Table 2.4
Table 3.1
Table 3.2
Table 3.3
Table 6.1
Table 8.1
Table 8.2
Table 8.3
Table 8.4
Table 9.1
Table 9.2
Table 10.1
Table A2.1
Summary of population-level related regulatory, legal, and other drivers:
United States
Summary of population-level related regulatory, legal, and other drivers:
Canada
Summary of population-level related regulatory, legal, and other drivers:
European Union
Summary of population-level related regulatory, legal, and other drivers:
Japan
Examples of attributes of organisms and populations
Examples of weight-of-evidence approaches
Examples of assessment approaches dependent on how assessment
population is defined
Spatially explicit population dynamics models and programs
Potentially useful site attributes for population-level ecological risk
assessment
Potentially useful biological attributes for population-level ecological
risk assessment
Demographic parameter estimation software
Empirical methods for use in evaluation of contaminated sites
Classes of population models for ecological risk assessment
Incorporating genetics in population dynamic models
Comparison of terms used to describe the risk assessment frameworks
employed in the United States and the European Union
Scenario descriptions
|
| adam_txt |
Titel: Population-level ecological risk assessment
Autor: Barnthouse, Lawrence W.
Jahr: 2008
Contents
List of Figures.xv
List of Tables.xvii
Foreword.xix
Preface.xxiii
Acknowledgments.xxv
About the Editors.xxvii
Workshop Participants.xxxi
Glossary of Key Terms.xxxv
Chapter 1: Introduction.1
Lawrence W. Barnthouse, Wayne R. Munns, Jr., and Mary T. Sorensen
THE MANAGEMENT-SCIENCE INTERFACE
Chapter 2: Managing Risk to Ecological Populations.7
Gregory R. Biddinger, Peter Calow, Peter Delorme, Glenn Harris, Bruce Hope,
Bin-Le Lin, Mary T. Sorensen, and Paul van den Brink
Introduction.7
Risk Management and Risk Assessment Context for Population-Level
Ecological Risk Assessment.7
Population-Level ERA Applications.8
Laws, Regulations, Policies, Narrative Goals, and Directives That
Protect the Environment.11
United States.11
Risk Management Tools: US ERA Approaches Often Used to
Address Population-Level Goals.18
Canada.20
Risk Management Tools: A Canadian ERA Example.22
European Union.23
Risk Management Tools: An ERA Approach for the
European Commission.24
Japan.25
Risk Management Tools: A Case Study for Japan.27
Benefits and Challenges of Risk Management with Population-Level ERA. 27
Ecological Relevance.27
Regulatory Value.28
Challenges to Risk Management with Population-Level ERA.29
Need to Define Appropriateness of Use.29
vii
Defining the Assessment Population.29
Need to Define Acceptable Population-Level Risk.30
Need for Additional Resources.31
Need for the Application of Lessons Learned.32
Need for Training and Guidance.32
Need for Improved Risk Communication.33
Achieving Risk Management with Population-Level ERA.35
Perform Basic and Applied Research.35
Engage Risk Managers.36
Define Acceptable Risk.36
Develop Accepted Tools.37
Develop Guidance.37
Provide Practitioner Training.37
Develop a Risk Communication Strategy.38
Provide Risk Manager Training.38
Achieving the Objective.39
Chapter 3: Population Protection Goals.41
Charles Menzie, Nancy Bettinger, Alyce Fritz, Larry Kapustka,
Helen Regan, Vibeke Moiler, and Helen Noel
Introduction.41
What Is a Population?.41
The Assessment Population.44
Attributes of Organisms and Populations.46
Attributes of Organisms.46
Attributes of Populations.48
Scales for the Assessment Population.54
Protection Goals for the Assessment Population.56
Start with Management Goals.56
Clearly State Protection Goals.57
Smaller Scale Assessments.59
Larger Scale Assessments.60
Use Conceptual Models.61
Assessment and Measurement Endpoints for the Assessment Population.61
Selecting Assessment Endpoints.61
Selecting Measures of Exposure and Effect.62
Clarifying Definitions, Endpoints, and Approaches.63
Protection Goals and the Biological Population.67
Recommendations.68
SCIENTIFIC ISSUES IN POPULATION-LEVEL
ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
Chapter 4: Density Dependence in Ecological Risk Assessment.69
S. Jannicke Moe
Introduction.69
History of the Density-Dependence Concept.69
Density-Dependent Processes and Population-Level Patterns.70
Density Dependence in Natural Resource Management.72
Potential Importance of Density Dependence in Ecological
Risk Assessment.75
Aspects of Density Dependence.76
Aspects of Toxicant Effects.81
Statistical Methods for Quantifying Density Dependence.82
Cohort Data.83
Time-Series Data.85
Problems with Applying the Density-Dependence Concept.87
Detecting and Estimating Density Dependence.87
Predicting Effects of Density Dependence.89
Recommendations for Treatment of Density Dependence in
Ecological Risk Assessments.89
Conclusions.91
Chapter 5: Genetic Variation in Population-Level Ecological
Risk Assessment.93
Diane Nacci and Ary A. Hoffmann
Introduction: Challenges and Opportunities for Genetics in
Population-Level Ecological Risk Assessment.93
Genetic Variation: Neutral, Adaptive, and Detrimental.94
Neutral Genetic Variation and Population Condition.95
Size and Richness: Effective Population Size and Genetic Diversity.96
Uniqueness: Geographic Distribution and Differentiation.97
Adaptive Genetic Variation and Fitness.98
Estimating Fitness.98
Establishing Causal Connections between Fitness Effects and Genes.100
Predicting Adaptive Shifts.101
Genetic Variation and Risks from Chemical Exposures.103
Selection and Adaptation to Chemical Exposures.104
Evidence of Chemical Adaptation.105
Genetic Contributions to Population-Level ERA.108
Genetic Contributions to Empirical Assessments.108
Genetic Contributions to Modeling Assessments.109
Future Research Needs and Challenges.Ill
Conclusions.112
Chapter 6: The Spatial Structure of Populations and
Ecological Risk Assessment.113
Wayne G. Landis and Andrew Deines
Introduction.113
A Short History.113
Introduction to This Chapter.114
Populations in Space.114
Examples of Spatial Structure.116
Application of Metapopulation and Patch-Dynamic Models to
Investigate Toxicant Effects.118
Experimental Results.123
A Metapopulation Experiment to Simulate Toxicant Effects.123
Application of Spatial Relationships into the Risk Assessment of
Populations.123
Consideration of Spatial Structure of Populations in Risk Assessment.123
The Problem of the Reference Site.124
Tools for the Analysis of Spatial Relationships.124
When to Ignore Spatial Structure?.125
Expansion of Risk Assessment beyond Chemical Impacts.125
Summary.127
Chapter 7: What Conservation Biology and Natural Resource
Management Can Offer Population-Level Ecological Risk Assessment.129
Jennifer A. Gervais and Helen M. Regan
Introduction.129
Environmental and Demographic Variation.130
Tools for Parameter Estimation.132
Demographic Parameter Estimation Techniques.132
Population Size and Density Estimation Techniques.133
Minimizing Sampling and Parameter Estimation Error.133
Methods of Inference.134
Information-Theoretic Approaches.134
Bayesian Techniques.135
The Use of Population Models.137
Retrospective versus Prospective Modeling.137
Prediction versus Projection.138
Heuristic versus Applied Models.139
Models and the Inescapable Uncertainty.139
Coping with Uncertainty: Two Approaches.141
Solution 1: Simplify the Questions to Fit the Available Data.141
Solution 2: Consider Multiple Working Hypotheses and
Seek Relative Answers.142
Application, Interpretation, and Communication of Model Results.144
A Realistic View of the Role of Models.144
Recognizing Model Limitations and Appropriate Usage.144
Models as One Step in the Decision-Making Process.145
A Precautionary Tale.147
More Constructive Approaches.149
Conclusions.150
APPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL ECOLOGICAL
RISK ASSESSMENT
Chapter 8: Empirical Approaches to Population-Level Ecological
Risk Assessment.151
Tina M. Carlsen, S. Jannicke Moe, Sandra Brasfield, Peter F. Chapman,
Ary Hoffmann, Wayne G. Landis, Diane E. Nacci, Helen Noel, and
Julann A. Spromberg
Introduction.151
Empirical Data Useful in Population-Level ERAs.154
Site Attributes.155
Biological Attributes of Assessment Population.156
Attributes of Organisms.158
Primary Population Attributes.158
Secondary Population Attributes.159
Life History.160
Empirical Methods for Characterizing Populations.161
Habitat Characterization.161
Biological Surveys.163
Demographic Studies.164
Field Manipulation.165
Methods for Measuring Genetic Variation in Wild Populations.166
Statistical Methods.168
Examples.169
Pesticide Registration.169
Standard Laboratory Studies.169
Empirical Measurement of Population Effects — Aquatic Species.170
Empirical Measurement of Population Effects — Terrestrial Species . 172
Terrestrial Wildlife Populations Inhabiting Contaminated Sites.172
Habitat Evaluation.173
Population Evaluation.176
Recommendations.177
Chapter 9: Modeling Approaches to Population-Level Ecological Risk
Assessment.179
Wayne R. Munns, Jr., Jennifer Gervais, Ary A. Hoffman, Udo Hommen,
Diane E. Nacci, Mayuko Nakamaru, Richard Sibly, and Chris J. Topping
Introduction.179
Modeling Populations in Ecological Risk Assessment.181
Unstructured (Scalar) Models.182
Biologically Structured Models.185
Individual-Based Models.191
Metapopulation Models.194
Spatially Explicit Models.197
XII
Incorporating Genetic Attributes into Population Dynamics Models.201
Modeling to Support Risk Management and Decision-Making.205
Unresolved Issues and Recommendations.210
Chapter 10: A Framework for Population-Level Ecological
Risk Assessment.211
Randy Wentsel, Nelson Beyer, Valery Forbes, Steve Maund, and
Robert Pastorok
Development of Ecological Risk Assessment Framework.211
What Is ERA?.211
Other Frameworks for Population-Level ERA.213
Population Viability Analysis.213
Scientific Steering Committee of the European Commission's Health
and Consumer Protection Directorate-General.214
Oak Ridge National Laboratory Framework.214
A Framework for Population-Level ERA.215
Overview of the Framework.215
Defining the Management Issues and Decision Criteria.217
Problem Formulation.217
Is a Population-Level Risk Assessment Warranted?.220
How Will It Add Value?.220
Define Assessment Population for Purposes of the Risk Assessment.221
Define the Properties and Attributes (Assessment Endpoints) of the
Population of Concern.221
Develop the Conceptual Model.222
Select Methods to Be Used to Estimate Population Risk.222
Empirical Methods.224
Modeling Approaches.225
Analysis.228
Components of the Analysis Phase of a Population-Level ERA.228
Applying Empirical Approaches.228
Applying Population Models.230
Derivation of Stressor-Response Relationships.231
Integrating the Results of Empirical and Modeling Approaches.231
Risk Characterization.232
Risk Estimation.232
Risk Estimates Derived from Empirical Approaches.233
Risk Estimates Derived from Population Models.233
Risk Description.235
Identify and Discuss Variability and Uncertainty.237
Communication to Managers.237
A PATH FORWARD
Chapter 11: Issues and Recommendations.239
Wayne R. Munns, Jr., Lawrence W. Barnthouse, and Mary T. Sorensen
Introduction.239
XIII
Implementation Issues.239
Decision Contexts Frame the Assessment.240
Defining Assessment Population, Spatial Scale, and Temporal Frame.241
Balance of Empirical and Modeling Approaches.242
Interpreting Significance of Population-Level Effects.242
Guidance, Training, and Acceptance.244
Implications for Research and Development.245
REFERENCES AND APPENDICES
References.247
Appendix 1: Decision Context Scenarios.285
Appendix 1 (Al.l): Hazardous Waste Scenario.285
Scenario: Hazardous Waste Site (Historic Releases).285
Regulatory Context.285
United States of America.286
European Union.287
Canada.287
Role of Risk Assessment in Supporting Management Decisions.287
Current Risk Assessment Approaches.287
Levels at Which Assessment Endpoints Are Defined.288
Assessment and Analytical Methods.289
Risk Characterization Methods and Risk Descriptors.289
Rationale for Population-Level Assessment Methods.290
Appendix 1 (A1.2): European Water Framework Directive.292
Scenario: European Water Framework Directive.292
Regulatory Context.292
Role of Risk Assessment in Supporting Management Decisions.292
Current Risk Assessment Approach.293
Rationale for Population-Level Assessment Methods.293
Appendix 1 (A1.3): Consequences of Exceeding Water and
Sediment Quality Standards.294
Scenario: Estimating Consequences of Exceeding Water and
Sediment Quality Standards.294
Regulatory Context.294
Role of Risk Assessment in Supporting Management Decisions.294
Current Risk Assessment Approach.294
Rationale for Population-Level Assessment Methods.294
Appendix 1 (A1.4): Agricultural Pesticide Registration.295
Scenario: Agricultural Pesticide Registration.295
Regulatory Context.295
Role of Risk Assessment in Supporting Management Decisions.296
Current Risk Assessment Approach.296
Levels at Which Assessment Endpoints Are Defined.297
XIV
Analytical Methods.298
Risk Characterization Methods.298
Risk Description and Communication Methods.299
Rationale for Population-Level Assessment Methods.299
Appendix 2: Workshop Exercise: Application of 2 Modeling Techniques
in a Theoretical Assessment for Agricultural Pesticide Registration.301
Chris Topping, Richard Sibly, Peter D. Delorme, Vibeke Moller,
Alyce T. Fritz, Niels Elmegaard, and Wayne R. Munns, Jr.
Pesticide Toxicity Data.301
Model Descriptions.302
Risk Scenarios.303
Simulation Results.304
Exercise Conclusion.305
Appendix 3: Supplemental Reading.307
A3.1 Risk Assessment.307
A3.2 Ecotoxicology.312
A3.3 Population Ecology.318
Index.323
List of Figures
Figure 2.1
Figure 3.1
Figure 3.2
Figure 3.3
Figure 4.1
Figure 4.2
Attributes influencing the objective of achieving increased use of pop-
ulation-level ecological risk assessment
Space-time relationships for considering environmental effects along
the continuum from organisms to metapopulations
Representation of 4 satellite populations that comprise a metapopulation
complex
Representation of different assessment populations overlain on a
metapopulation complex
Examples of density-dependent processes and population-level patterns,
based on theoretical population models
Models for density-dependent recruitment: Beverton-Holt model and
Ricker model
Figure 4.3 Main types of interaction between density and a toxicant, where both
density and toxicant separately have negative effects on population
growth rate
Figure 4.4 Different degrees of density-dependent compensatory responses
Figure 4.5 Positive density dependence in low densities: the Allee effect
Figure 4.6 Comparison of generalized additive models regression with linear
regression for fitting different recruitment functions
Figure 6.1 Spatial structure of patchy populations
Figure 6.2 Effects of toxicant or other stressors upon a metapopulation or patchy
population
Figure 7.1 The main components of a population viability analysis
Figure 8.1 The link between empirical studies and modeling for population-level
ecological risk assessment
Figure 9.1 Taxonomy of population models for population-level ecological risk
assessment
Figure 9.2 Factors affecting choice of models
Figure 10.1 A general framework for population-level ecological risk assessment
Figure 10.2 Problem formulation flow chart
Figure 10.3 Overview of the analysis phase of a population-level ecological risk
assessment
Figure 10.4 Examples of risk expressions for population-level ecological risk
assessment
Figure 10.5 Graphic representation of risk estimates for fish exposed to PCP
Figure A 1.1 Pictorial conceptual site model
Figure A 1.2 Schematic conceptual site model
Figure A 1.3 Simplified conceptual model
Figure A2.1 Population size for 5 scenarios over a period of 200 simulation years,
as projected by the biologically structured model
r xv
List of Tables
Table 2.1
Table 2.2
Table 2.3
Table 2.4
Table 3.1
Table 3.2
Table 3.3
Table 6.1
Table 8.1
Table 8.2
Table 8.3
Table 8.4
Table 9.1
Table 9.2
Table 10.1
Table A2.1
Summary of population-level related regulatory, legal, and other drivers:
United States
Summary of population-level related regulatory, legal, and other drivers:
Canada
Summary of population-level related regulatory, legal, and other drivers:
European Union
Summary of population-level related regulatory, legal, and other drivers:
Japan
Examples of attributes of organisms and populations
Examples of weight-of-evidence approaches
Examples of assessment approaches dependent on how assessment
population is defined
Spatially explicit population dynamics models and programs
Potentially useful site attributes for population-level ecological risk
assessment
Potentially useful biological attributes for population-level ecological
risk assessment
Demographic parameter estimation software
Empirical methods for use in evaluation of contaminated sites
Classes of population models for ecological risk assessment
Incorporating genetics in population dynamic models
Comparison of terms used to describe the risk assessment frameworks
employed in the United States and the European Union
Scenario descriptions |
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| spelling | Population-level ecological risk assessment Lawrence W. Barnthouse, Wayne R. Munns, Jr., Mary T. Sorensen Boca Raton [u.a.] Taylor & Francis [u.a.] 2008 XXXVI, 337 S. Ill., graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Environmental chemistry and toxicology Literaturverz. S. 247 - 284 und 307 - 321 Population biology Ecological risk assessment Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Demökologie (DE-588)4149059-9 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift gnd-content Demökologie (DE-588)4149059-9 s Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s b DE-604 Barnthouse, Lawrence W. Sonstige oth Munns, Wayne R. Sonstige oth Sorensen, Mary T. Sonstige oth http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0717/2007018699.html lizenzfrei Inhaltsverzeichnis HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016388566&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Population-level ecological risk assessment Population biology Ecological risk assessment Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Demökologie (DE-588)4149059-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4149059-9 (DE-588)4143413-4 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Population-level ecological risk assessment |
| title_auth | Population-level ecological risk assessment |
| title_exact_search | Population-level ecological risk assessment |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Population-level ecological risk assessment |
| title_full | Population-level ecological risk assessment Lawrence W. Barnthouse, Wayne R. Munns, Jr., Mary T. Sorensen |
| title_fullStr | Population-level ecological risk assessment Lawrence W. Barnthouse, Wayne R. Munns, Jr., Mary T. Sorensen |
| title_full_unstemmed | Population-level ecological risk assessment Lawrence W. Barnthouse, Wayne R. Munns, Jr., Mary T. Sorensen |
| title_short | Population-level ecological risk assessment |
| title_sort | population level ecological risk assessment |
| topic | Population biology Ecological risk assessment Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Demökologie (DE-588)4149059-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Population biology Ecological risk assessment Risikoanalyse Demökologie Aufsatzsammlung Konferenzschrift |
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