Holdings: Philosophical lectures on probability

Philosophical lectures on probability:

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	De Finetti, Bruno 1906-1985 (Author)
Format:	Book
Language:	English Italian
Published:	[Dordrecht] Springer 2008
Series:	Synthese library 340
Subjects:	Philosophie Probabilities > Philosophy Wahrscheinlichkeit Aufsatzsammlung
Online Access:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Physical Description:	XXII, 212 S. graph. Darst. 235 mm x 155 mm
ISBN:	9781402082016 9781402082023

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Record in the Search Index

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adam_text	CONTENTS PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. IX EDITOR S NOTIEE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. XIII DE FINETTI S PHILOSOPHY OF PROB ABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. XV 1 INTRODUCTORY LECTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 AGAINST THE AXIOMATIC APPROACH 1 SUBJECTIVISM 3 DEFINING PROBABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 PROPER SCORING RULES 4 2 DECISIONS AND PROPER SCORING RUJES .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 15 WHY PROPER SCORING RULES ARE PROPER....... . .. .. .. . . . 15 PROBABILITY DEPENDS ON THE SUBJECT S STATE OF INFORMATION 18 SEQUENTIAL DECISIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 19 SUBJECTIVISM VERSUS OBJECTIVISM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 21 FOR AN OMNISCIENT BEING PROBABILITY WOULD NOT EXIST 23 3 GEOMETRIE REPRESENTATION OF BRIER S RUJE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 27 ENVELOPE FORMED BY STRAIGHT LINES 27 OPERATIONAL DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 28 4 BAYES THEOREM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 31 BAYES THEOREM AND LINEARITY.... . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . . .. 31 STATISTICS AND INITIAL PROBABILITIES 34 BAYESIAN UPDATING IS NOT A CORRECTIVE REVISION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 35 ADHOCKERIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 36 BAYES THEOREM FOR RANDOM QUANTITIES 37 INEXPRESSIBLE EVIDENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 39 5 PHYSICAJ PROBABILITY AND COMPJEXITY 47 PERFECT DICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 47 THE LOTTERY PARADOX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 49 V VI CONLENLS PROBABILITY AS FREQUENCY 50 PROBABILITY AND PHYSICAL LAWS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 51 PROBABILISTIC THEORIES AS INSTRUMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 53 RANDOM SEQUENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 54 6 STOCHASTIC INDEPENDENCE AND RANDOM SEQUENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 59 LOGICAL AND STOCHASTIC INDEPENDENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 59 PROPENSITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 60 INDEPENDENCE AND FREQUENTISM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 61 VON MISES COLLECTIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 62 7 SUPERSTITION AND FREQUENTISM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 69 THE FREQUENTIST FAILACY 69 IDEALIZED FRAMEWORKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 71 THE FAILACY OF HYPOTHESIS TESTING 72 8 EXCHANGEABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 75 UM DRAWINGS WITH REPLACEMENT BUT WITHOUT INDEPENDENCE . . . . . . . . . . . .. 75 INDUCTION AND UNKNOWN PROBABILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 78 EXCHANGEABLE RANDOM QUANTITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 80 ALLEGED OBJECTIVITY AND CONVERGENCE OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES . . . . . . . .. 81 9 DISTRIBUTIONS......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 87 INTRODUCTORY CONCEPTS 87 CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 89 CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS WITHOUT DENSITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 90 THE GENERAL CASE 93 CHARACTERISTIC FUNCTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 93 ABOUT MEANS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 95 10 THE CONCEPT OF MEAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 97 CHISINI S SERENDIPITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 97 R-MEANS AND THE NAGUMO-KOLMOGOROV THEOREM 100 STATISTICAL THEORY OF EXTREMES AND ASSOCIATIVE MEANS 102 INEQUALITIES AMONG ASSOCIATIVE MEANS 104 CONCLUDING REMARKS 105 11 INDUCTION AND SAMPIE RANDOMIZATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 EXCHANGEABILITY AND CONVERGENCE TO THE OBSERVED FREQUENCY 109 BAYESIAN STATISTICS AND SAMPIE RANDOMIZATION 110 12 COMPLETE ADDITIVITY AND ZERO PROBABILITIES 113 THE BETTING FRAMEWORK AND ITS LIMITS 113 FINITE AND COUNTABLE ADDITIVITY 114 STRICT COHERENCE 118 CONTENTS VII CONDITIONING ON EVENTS OFZERO PROBABILITY 120 ALLAIS PARADOX 123 13 THE DEFINITIONS OF PROBABILITY 127 AXIOMATIC, CLASSICAL, AND FREQUENTISTIC APPROACHES 127 INDISTINGUISHABLE EVENTS AND EQUAL PROBABILITY 130 FREQUENTISM AND EXCHANGEABILITY 131 VON MISES REGELLOSIGKEITSAXIOM 134 14 THE GAMBLER S FALLACY 137 AGAINST THE MEASURE-THEORETIC APPROACH 137 GAMBLER S FALLACY AND FREQUENTIST FALLACY 140 EVENTS AND PROPOSITIONS 144 15 FACTS AND EVENTS 149 A PRAGMATIC VIEW OFEVENTS 149 ON ELEMENTARY FACTS 152 EVENTS AND PHENOMENA 155 16 FACTS AND EVENTS : AN EXAMPLE 159 A SEQUENCE OFCOIN TOSSES 159 A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION 161 17 PREVISION, RANDOM QUANTITIES, AND TRIEVENTS 165 PROBABILITY AS A SPECIAL CASE OF PREVISION 165 THE CONGLOMERATIVE PROPERTY 167 TRIEVENTS 169 18 DESIRE ANDRE S ARGUMENT 177 HEADS AND TAILS: THE GAMBLER S RUIN 177 THE WIENER-LEVY PROCESS 180 AGAIN ON GAMBLER S RUIN 180 THE BALLOT PROBLEM 182 THE POWER OF DESIRE ANDRES ARGUMENTATIVE STRATEGY 183 19 CHARACTERISTIC FUNCTIONS 185 PREVISION AND LINEARITY 185 ROTATIONS IN THE COMPLEX PLANE 186 SOME IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC FUNCTIONS 188 CONCLUDING REMARKS 189 CITED LITERATURE 191 NAME INDEX 209
adam_txt	CONTENTS PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IX EDITOR'S NOTIEE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XIII DE FINETTI'S PHILOSOPHY OF PROB ABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XV 1 INTRODUCTORY LECTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 AGAINST THE AXIOMATIC APPROACH 1 SUBJECTIVISM 3 DEFINING PROBABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 PROPER SCORING RULES 4 2 DECISIONS AND PROPER SCORING RUJES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 WHY PROPER SCORING RULES ARE PROPER. . . . . . . . 15 PROBABILITY DEPENDS ON THE SUBJECT'S STATE OF INFORMATION 18 SEQUENTIAL DECISIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 SUBJECTIVISM VERSUS OBJECTIVISM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 FOR AN OMNISCIENT BEING PROBABILITY WOULD NOT EXIST 23 3 GEOMETRIE REPRESENTATION OF BRIER'S RUJE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 ENVELOPE FORMED BY STRAIGHT LINES 27 OPERATIONAL DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 4 BAYES' THEOREM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 BAYES' THEOREM AND LINEARITY. . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 STATISTICS AND INITIAL PROBABILITIES 34 BAYESIAN UPDATING IS NOT A CORRECTIVE REVISION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 "ADHOCKERIES" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 BAYES' THEOREM FOR RANDOM QUANTITIES 37 INEXPRESSIBLE EVIDENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 5 PHYSICAJ PROBABILITY AND COMPJEXITY 47 "PERFECT" DICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 THE LOTTERY PARADOX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 V VI CONLENLS PROBABILITY AS FREQUENCY 50 PROBABILITY AND PHYSICAL LAWS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 PROBABILISTIC THEORIES AS INSTRUMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 RANDOM SEQUENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 6 STOCHASTIC INDEPENDENCE AND RANDOM SEQUENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 LOGICAL AND STOCHASTIC INDEPENDENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 PROPENSITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 INDEPENDENCE AND FREQUENTISM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 VON MISES COLLECTIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 7 SUPERSTITION AND FREQUENTISM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 THE FREQUENTIST FAILACY 69 IDEALIZED FRAMEWORKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 THE FAILACY OF HYPOTHESIS TESTING 72 8 EXCHANGEABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 UM DRAWINGS WITH REPLACEMENT BUT WITHOUT INDEPENDENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 INDUCTION AND "UNKNOWN" PROBABILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 EXCHANGEABLE RANDOM QUANTITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 ALLEGED OBJECTIVITY AND CONVERGENCE OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES . . . . . . . . 81 9 DISTRIBUTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 INTRODUCTORY CONCEPTS 87 CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS WITHOUT DENSITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 THE GENERAL CASE 93 CHARACTERISTIC FUNCTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 ABOUT MEANS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 10 THE CONCEPT OF MEAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 CHISINI'S SERENDIPITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 R-MEANS AND THE NAGUMO-KOLMOGOROV THEOREM 100 STATISTICAL THEORY OF EXTREMES AND ASSOCIATIVE MEANS 102 INEQUALITIES AMONG ASSOCIATIVE MEANS 104 CONCLUDING REMARKS 105 11 INDUCTION AND SAMPIE RANDOMIZATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 EXCHANGEABILITY AND CONVERGENCE TO THE OBSERVED FREQUENCY 109 BAYESIAN STATISTICS AND SAMPIE RANDOMIZATION 110 12 COMPLETE ADDITIVITY AND ZERO PROBABILITIES 113 THE BETTING FRAMEWORK AND ITS LIMITS 113 FINITE AND COUNTABLE ADDITIVITY 114 'STRICT' COHERENCE 118 CONTENTS VII CONDITIONING ON EVENTS OFZERO PROBABILITY 120 ALLAIS' PARADOX 123 13 THE DEFINITIONS OF PROBABILITY 127 AXIOMATIC, CLASSICAL, AND FREQUENTISTIC APPROACHES 127 INDISTINGUISHABLE EVENTS AND EQUAL PROBABILITY 130 FREQUENTISM AND EXCHANGEABILITY 131 VON MISES' "REGELLOSIGKEITSAXIOM" 134 14 THE GAMBLER'S FALLACY 137 AGAINST THE MEASURE-THEORETIC APPROACH 137 GAMBLER'S FALLACY AND FREQUENTIST FALLACY 140 EVENTS AND PROPOSITIONS 144 15 "FACTS" AND "EVENTS" 149 A PRAGMATIC VIEW OFEVENTS 149 ON ELEMENTARY FACTS 152 EVENTS AND "PHENOMENA" 155 16 "FACTS" AND "EVENTS": AN EXAMPLE 159 A SEQUENCE OFCOIN TOSSES 159 A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION 161 17 PREVISION, RANDOM QUANTITIES, AND TRIEVENTS 165 PROBABILITY AS A SPECIAL CASE OF PREVISION 165 THE CONGLOMERATIVE PROPERTY 167 TRIEVENTS 169 18 DESIRE ANDRE'S ARGUMENT 177 HEADS AND TAILS: THE GAMBLER'S RUIN 177 THE WIENER-LEVY PROCESS 180 AGAIN ON GAMBLER'S RUIN '" 180 THE BALLOT PROBLEM 182 THE POWER OF DESIRE ANDRES ARGUMENTATIVE STRATEGY 183 19 CHARACTERISTIC FUNCTIONS 185 PREVISION AND LINEARITY 185 ROTATIONS IN THE COMPLEX PLANE 186 SOME IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC FUNCTIONS 188 CONCLUDING REMARKS 189 CITED LITERATURE 191 NAME INDEX 209
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author	De Finetti, Bruno 1906-1985
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genre	(DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content
genre_facet	Aufsatzsammlung
id	DE-604.BV023181954
illustrated	Illustrated
index_date	2024-07-02T20:01:49Z
indexdate	2024-07-09T21:12:29Z
institution	BVB
isbn	9781402082016 9781402082023
language	English Italian
oai_aleph_id	oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016368474
oclc_num	214308362
open_access_boolean
owner	DE-29 DE-12 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM
owner_facet	DE-29 DE-12 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM
physical	XXII, 212 S. graph. Darst. 235 mm x 155 mm
publishDate	2008
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publisher	Springer
record_format	marc
series	Synthese library
series2	Synthese library
spelling	De Finetti, Bruno 1906-1985 Verfasser (DE-588)118887610 aut Filosofia della probabilità Philosophical lectures on probability Bruno de Finetti. Collected, edited, and annotated by Alberto Mura [Dordrecht] Springer 2008 XXII, 212 S. graph. Darst. 235 mm x 155 mm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Synthese library 340 Philosophie Probabilities Philosophy Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 gnd rswk-swf Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 s Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 s DE-604 Mura, Alberto Sonstige oth Synthese library 340 (DE-604)BV000005044 340 V:DE-604 application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016368474&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis
spellingShingle	De Finetti, Bruno 1906-1985 Philosophical lectures on probability Synthese library Philosophie Probabilities Philosophy Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4045791-6 (DE-588)4137007-7 (DE-588)4143413-4
title	Philosophical lectures on probability
title_alt	Filosofia della probabilità
title_auth	Philosophical lectures on probability
title_exact_search	Philosophical lectures on probability
title_exact_search_txtP	Philosophical lectures on probability
title_full	Philosophical lectures on probability Bruno de Finetti. Collected, edited, and annotated by Alberto Mura
title_fullStr	Philosophical lectures on probability Bruno de Finetti. Collected, edited, and annotated by Alberto Mura
title_full_unstemmed	Philosophical lectures on probability Bruno de Finetti. Collected, edited, and annotated by Alberto Mura
title_short	Philosophical lectures on probability
title_sort	philosophical lectures on probability
topic	Philosophie Probabilities Philosophy Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd
topic_facet	Philosophie Probabilities Philosophy Wahrscheinlichkeit Aufsatzsammlung
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016368474&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
volume_link	(DE-604)BV000005044
work_keys_str_mv	AT definettibruno filosofiadellaprobabilita AT muraalberto filosofiadellaprobabilita AT definettibruno philosophicallecturesonprobability AT muraalberto philosophicallecturesonprobability

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