Strategic risk taking: a framework for risk management
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Upper Saddle River, N.J.
Wharton School Pub.
c2008
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Table of contents only Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | xviii, 388 p. graph. Darst. 25 cm |
| ISBN: | 9780131990487 0131990489 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 010 | |a 2007014971 | ||
| 020 | |a 9780131990487 |9 978-0-13-199048-7 | ||
| 020 | |a 0131990489 |c pbk. : alk. paper |9 0-13-199048-9 | ||
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| 100 | 1 | |a Damodaran, Aswath |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Strategic risk taking |b a framework for risk management |c Aswath Damodaran |
| 264 | 1 | |a Upper Saddle River, N.J. |b Wharton School Pub. |c c2008 | |
| 300 | |a xviii, 388 p. |b graph. Darst. |c 25 cm | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk management | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Risikoanalyse |0 (DE-588)4137042-9 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Risikomanagement |0 (DE-588)4121590-4 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | CONTENTS
Introduction
A Roadmap for Understanding Risk.............................xvii
Chapters 1 4
The Economists View of Risk Aversion and the
Behavioral Response.................................1
Chapter 1
What Is Risk?...................................................3
A Very Short History of Risk..............................................3
Defining Risk...........................................................5
Dealing with Risk.......................................................7
Risk and Reward.............................................................7
Risk and Innovation..........................................................7
Risk Management.......................................................8
The Conventional View and Its Limitations.......................................8
A More Expansive View of Risk Management.....................................9
Conclusion............................................................9
Chapter 2
Why Do We Care About Risk?...................................11
The Duality of Risk.....................................................11
I Am Rich, But Am I Happy? Utility and Wealth.............................12
The St. Petersburg Paradox and Expected Utility: The Bernoulli Contribution.........12
Mathematics Meets Economics: Von Neumann and Morgenstern...................14
The Gambling Exception?....................................................16
Small Versus Large Gambles...................................................17
Measuring Risk Aversion................................................18
Certainty Equivalents........................................................18
Risk Aversion Coefficients....................................................20
vn
Other Views on Risk Aversion.................................................23
Prospect Theory............................................................26
Consequences of Views on Risk..........................................28
Investment Choices..........................................................28
Corporate Finance..........................................................29
Valuation..................................................................30
Conclusion...........................................................30
Chapter 3
What Do We Think About Risk?.................................35
General Principles......................................................35
Evidence on Risk Aversion...............................................36
Experimental Studies........................................................36
Survey Measures............................................................47
Pricing of Risky Assets.......................................................50
Evidence from Racetracks, Gambling, and Game Shows...........................57
Propositions about Risk Aversion.........................................61
Conclusion...........................................................63
Chapter 4
How Do We Measure Risk? .....................................65
Fate and Divine Providence..............................................65
Estimating Probabilities: The First Step to Quantifying Risk...................66
Sampling, The Normal Distributions, and Updating.........................68
The Use of Data: Life Tables and Estimates.................................70
The Insurance View of Risk..............................................70
Financial Assets and the Advent of Statistical Risk Measures...................71
The Markowitz Revolution..............................................73
Efficient Portfolios..........................................................73
The Mean Variance Framework...............................................74
Implications for Risk Assessment..............................................76
Introducing the Riskless Asset—The Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM) Arrives....................................................11
Mean Variance Challenged...............................................78
Contents
Fat Tails and Power Law distributions..........................................79
Asymmetric Distributions....................................................81
Jump Process Models........................................................83
Data Power: Arbitrage Pricing and Multifactor Models.......................83
Arbitrage Pricing Model......................................................84
Multifactor and Proxy Models.................................................85
The Evolution of Risk Measures..........................................86
Conclusion...........................................................86
Chapters 5 8
Risk Assessment: Tools and Techniques..................97
Chapter 5
Risk Adjusted Value............................................99
Discounted Cash Flow Approaches........................................99
The DCF Value of an Asset...................................................100
Risk Adjusted Discount Rates................................................101
Certainty Equivalent Cash Flows.............................................106
Hybrid Models.............................................................Ill
DCF Risk Adjustment: Pluses and Minuses.....................................116
Post Valuation Risk Adjustment.........................................117
Rationale for Post Valuation Adjustments......................................117
Downside Risks............................................................118
Other Discounts...........................................................125
Upside Risks...............................................................126
The Dangers of Post Valuation Adjustments....................................127
Relative Valuation Approaches..........................................128
Basis for Approach.........................................................128
Risk Adjustment...........................................................129
DCF Versus Relative Valuation................................................130
The Practice of Risk Adjustment.........................................130
Conclusion..........................................................131
Fixed Discount.......................................................136
Contents
Firm Specific Discount................................................137
Determinants of Illiquidity Discounts.........................................137
Estimating Firm Specific Illiquidity Discount...................................139
Synthetic Bid Ask Spread...............................................142
Option Based Discount................................................143
Chapter 6
Probabilistic Approaches: Scenario Analysis, Decision
Trees, and Simulations.........................................145
Scenario Analysis.....................................................145
Best Case/Worst Case.......................................................146
Multiple Scenario Analysis...................................................147
Decision Trees........................................................153
Steps in Decision Tree Analysis...............................................153
An Example of a Decision Tree...............................................156
Use in Decision Making.....................................................160
Issues....................................................................161
Risk Adjusted Value and Decision Trees........................................162
Simulations..........................................................164
Steps in Simulation.........................................................164
An Example of a Simulation.................................................168
Use in Decision Making.....................................................173
Simulations with Constraints.................................................174
Issues....................................................................176
Risk Adjusted Value and Simulations..........................................177
An Overall Assessment of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches...........179
Comparing the Approaches..................................................179
Complement or Replacement for Risk Adjusted Value............................180
In Practice................................................................181
Conclusion..........................................................182
Fitting the Distribution................................................183
Is the Data Discrete or Continuous?...........................................183
How Symmetric Is the Data?.................................................188
Contents
Are There Upper or Lower Limits on Data Values?...............................194
How Likely Are You to See Extreme Values of Data, Relative to the Middle Values?.....195
Tests for Fit..........................................................196
Tests of Normality.....................................................198
Conclusion..........................................................199
Chapter 7
Value at Risk (VaR)...........................................201
What Is VaR?.........................................................201
A Short History of VaR.................................................202
Measuring VaR.......................................................204
Variance Covariance Method................................................204
Historical Simulation.......................................................210
Monte Carlo Simulation.....................................................214
Comparing Approaches.....................................................217
Limitations of VaR....................................................218
VaR Can Be Wrong.........................................................218
Narrow Focus.............................................................221
Suboptimal Decisions.......................................................222
Extensions of VaR.....................................................223
VaR as a Risk Assessment Tool...........................................225
Conclusion..........................................................227
Chapter 8
Real Options.................................................231
The Essence of Real Options............................................231
Real Options, Risk Adjusted Value, and Probabilistic Assessments.............233
Real Option Examples.................................................235
The Option to Delay an Investment...........................................235
The Option to Expand......................................................246
The Option to Abandon an Investment........................................253
Caveats on Real Options...............................................257
Real Options in a Risk Management Framework...........................260
Contents
Conclusion..........................................................261
Option Payoffs.......................................................262
Determinants of Option Value..........................................264
Option Pricing Models.................................................266
The Binomial Model........................................................266
The Black Scholes Model....................................................270
Chapters 9 12
Risk Management: The Big Picture.....................277
Chapter 9
Risk Management: The Big Picture..............................279
Risk and Value: The Conventional View...................................280
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation..............................................280
Relative Valuation Models...................................................285
Expanding the Analysis of Risk..........................................287
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation..............................................288
Relative Valuation..........................................................295
Option Pricing Models......................................................298
A Final Assessment of Risk Management..................................301
When Does Risk Hedging Pay Off?............................................302
When Does Risk Management Pay Off?........................................303
Risk Hedging Versus Risk Management........................................303
Developing a Risk Management Strategy..................................304
Conclusion..........................................................306
Chapter 10
Risk Management: Profiling and Hedging........................309
Risk Profile..........................................................309
Step 1: List the Risks........................................................310
Step 2: Categorize the Risks..................................................310
Step 3: Measure Exposure to Each Risk.........................................311
Step 4: Analyze the Risks.....................................................318
Contents
To Hedge or Not to Hedge?.............................................319
The Costs of Hedging.......................................................319
The Benefits of Hedging.....................................................320
The Prevalence of Hedging..................................................326
Does Hedging Increase Value?................................................329
Alternative Techniques for Hedging Risk..................................331
Investment Choices.........................................................331
Financing Choices..........................................................332
Insurance.................................................................333
Derivatives................................................................334
Picking the Right Hedging Tool...............................................338
Conclusion..........................................................339
Chapter 11
Strategic Risk Management....................................341
Why Exploit Risk?.....................................................341
Value and Risk Taking.......................................................342
Evidence on Risk Taking and Value............................................344
How Do You Exploit Risk?..............................................345
The Information Advantage..................................................346
The Speed Advantage.......................................................348
The Experience/Knowledge Advantage.........................................350
The Resource Advantage.....................................................352
Flexibility.................................................................353
Building the Risk Taking Organization...................................356
Corporate Governance......................................................356
Personnel.................................................................358
Reward/Punishment Mechanisms.............................................360
Organization Size, Structure, and Culture......................................363
Conclusion..........................................................365
Contents xiii
Chapter 12
Risk Management: First Principles..............................367
1. Risk Is Everywhere..................................................367
2. Risk Is Threat and Opportunity.......................................369
3. We Are Ambivalent About Risks and Not Always Rational About the
Way We Assess or Deal with Risk.....................................369
4. Not All Risk Is Created Equal.........................................370
5. Risk Can Be Measured...............................................372
6. Good Risk Measurement/Assessment Should Lead to Better Decisions.......373
7. The Key to Good Risk Management Is Deciding Which Risks to Avoid,
Which Ones to Pass Through, and Which to Exploit.....................374
8. The Payoff to Better Risk Management Is Higher Value....................375
9. Risk Management Is Part of Everyone s Job..............................376
10. Successful Risk Taking Organizations Do Not Get There by Accident.......376
Conclusion..........................................................378
Index.......................................................379
Contents
|
| adam_txt |
CONTENTS
Introduction
A Roadmap for Understanding Risk.xvii
Chapters 1 4
The Economists' View of Risk Aversion and the
Behavioral Response.1
Chapter 1
What Is Risk?.3
A Very Short History of Risk.3
Defining Risk.5
Dealing with Risk.7
Risk and Reward.7
Risk and Innovation.7
Risk Management.8
The Conventional View and Its Limitations.8
A More Expansive View of Risk Management.9
Conclusion.9
Chapter 2
Why Do We Care About Risk?.11
The Duality of Risk.11
I Am Rich, But Am I Happy? Utility and Wealth.12
The St. Petersburg Paradox and Expected Utility: The Bernoulli Contribution.12
Mathematics Meets Economics: Von Neumann and Morgenstern.14
The Gambling Exception?.16
Small Versus Large Gambles.17
Measuring Risk Aversion.18
Certainty Equivalents.18
Risk Aversion Coefficients.20
vn
Other Views on Risk Aversion.23
Prospect Theory.26
Consequences of Views on Risk.28
Investment Choices.28
Corporate Finance.29
Valuation.30
Conclusion.30
Chapter 3
What Do We Think About Risk?.35
General Principles.35
Evidence on Risk Aversion.36
Experimental Studies.36
Survey Measures.47
Pricing of Risky Assets.50
Evidence from Racetracks, Gambling, and Game Shows.57
Propositions about Risk Aversion.61
Conclusion.63
Chapter 4
How Do We Measure Risk? .65
Fate and Divine Providence.65
Estimating Probabilities: The First Step to Quantifying Risk.66
Sampling, The Normal Distributions, and Updating.68
The Use of Data: Life Tables and Estimates.70
The Insurance View of Risk.70
Financial Assets and the Advent of Statistical Risk Measures.71
The Markowitz Revolution.73
Efficient Portfolios.73
The Mean Variance Framework.74
Implications for Risk Assessment.76
Introducing the Riskless Asset—The Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM) Arrives.11
Mean Variance Challenged.78
Contents
Fat Tails and Power Law distributions.79
Asymmetric Distributions.81
Jump Process Models.83
Data Power: Arbitrage Pricing and Multifactor Models.83
Arbitrage Pricing Model.84
Multifactor and Proxy Models.85
The Evolution of Risk Measures.86
Conclusion.86
Chapters 5 8
Risk Assessment: Tools and Techniques.97
Chapter 5
Risk Adjusted Value.99
Discounted Cash Flow Approaches.99
The DCF Value of an Asset.100
Risk Adjusted Discount Rates.101
Certainty Equivalent Cash Flows.106
Hybrid Models.Ill
DCF Risk Adjustment: Pluses and Minuses.116
Post Valuation Risk Adjustment.117
Rationale for Post Valuation Adjustments.117
Downside Risks.118
Other Discounts.125
Upside Risks.126
The Dangers of Post Valuation Adjustments.127
Relative Valuation Approaches.128
Basis for Approach.128
Risk Adjustment.129
DCF Versus Relative Valuation.130
The Practice of Risk Adjustment.130
Conclusion.131
Fixed Discount.136
Contents
Firm Specific Discount.137
Determinants of Illiquidity Discounts.137
Estimating Firm Specific Illiquidity Discount.139
Synthetic Bid Ask Spread.142
Option Based Discount.143
Chapter 6
Probabilistic Approaches: Scenario Analysis, Decision
Trees, and Simulations.145
Scenario Analysis.145
Best Case/Worst Case.146
Multiple Scenario Analysis.147
Decision Trees.153
Steps in Decision Tree Analysis.153
An Example of a Decision Tree.156
Use in Decision Making.160
Issues.161
Risk Adjusted Value and Decision Trees.162
Simulations.164
Steps in Simulation.164
An Example of a Simulation.168
Use in Decision Making.173
Simulations with Constraints.174
Issues.176
Risk Adjusted Value and Simulations.177
An Overall Assessment of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches.179
Comparing the Approaches.179
Complement or Replacement for Risk Adjusted Value.180
In Practice.181
Conclusion.182
Fitting the Distribution.183
Is the Data Discrete or Continuous?.183
How Symmetric Is the Data?.188
Contents
Are There Upper or Lower Limits on Data Values?.194
How Likely Are You to See Extreme Values of Data, Relative to the Middle Values?.195
Tests for Fit.196
Tests of Normality.198
Conclusion.199
Chapter 7
Value at Risk (VaR).201
What Is VaR?.201
A Short History of VaR.202
Measuring VaR.204
Variance Covariance Method.204
Historical Simulation.210
Monte Carlo Simulation.214
Comparing Approaches.217
Limitations of VaR.218
VaR Can Be Wrong.218
Narrow Focus.221
Suboptimal Decisions.222
Extensions of VaR.223
VaR as a Risk Assessment Tool.225
Conclusion.227
Chapter 8
Real Options.231
The Essence of Real Options.231
Real Options, Risk Adjusted Value, and Probabilistic Assessments.233
Real Option Examples.235
The Option to Delay an Investment.235
The Option to Expand.246
The Option to Abandon an Investment.253
Caveats on Real Options.257
Real Options in a Risk Management Framework.260
Contents
Conclusion.261
Option Payoffs.262
Determinants of Option Value.264
Option Pricing Models.266
The Binomial Model.266
The Black Scholes Model.270
Chapters 9 12
Risk Management: The Big Picture.277
Chapter 9
Risk Management: The Big Picture.279
Risk and Value: The Conventional View.280
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation.280
Relative Valuation Models.285
Expanding the Analysis of Risk.287
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation.288
Relative Valuation.295
Option Pricing Models.298
A Final Assessment of Risk Management.301
When Does Risk Hedging Pay Off?.302
When Does Risk Management Pay Off?.303
Risk Hedging Versus Risk Management.303
Developing a Risk Management Strategy.304
Conclusion.306
Chapter 10
Risk Management: Profiling and Hedging.309
Risk Profile.309
Step 1: List the Risks.310
Step 2: Categorize the Risks.310
Step 3: Measure Exposure to Each Risk.311
Step 4: Analyze the Risks.318
Contents
To Hedge or Not to Hedge?.319
The Costs of Hedging.319
The Benefits of Hedging.320
The Prevalence of Hedging.326
Does Hedging Increase Value?.329
Alternative Techniques for Hedging Risk.331
Investment Choices.331
Financing Choices.332
Insurance.333
Derivatives.334
Picking the Right Hedging Tool.338
Conclusion.339
Chapter 11
Strategic Risk Management.341
Why Exploit Risk?.341
Value and Risk Taking.342
Evidence on Risk Taking and Value.344
How Do You Exploit Risk?.345
The Information Advantage.346
The Speed Advantage.348
The Experience/Knowledge Advantage.350
The Resource Advantage.352
Flexibility.353
Building the Risk Taking Organization.356
Corporate Governance.356
Personnel.358
Reward/Punishment Mechanisms.360
Organization Size, Structure, and Culture.363
Conclusion.365
Contents xiii
Chapter 12
Risk Management: First Principles.367
1. Risk Is Everywhere.367
2. Risk Is Threat and Opportunity.369
3. We Are Ambivalent About Risks and Not Always Rational About the
Way We Assess or Deal with Risk.369
4. Not All Risk Is Created Equal.370
5. Risk Can Be Measured.372
6. Good Risk Measurement/Assessment Should Lead to Better Decisions.373
7. The Key to Good Risk Management Is Deciding Which Risks to Avoid,
Which Ones to Pass Through, and Which to Exploit.374
8. The Payoff to Better Risk Management Is Higher Value.375
9. Risk Management Is Part of Everyone's Job.376
10. Successful Risk Taking Organizations Do Not Get There by Accident.376
Conclusion.378
Index.379
Contents |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Damodaran, Aswath |
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| id | DE-604.BV023042768 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T19:21:14Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:09:39Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780131990487 0131990489 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2007014971 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016246266 |
| oclc_num | 123136779 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-1049 DE-634 DE-188 DE-2070s |
| owner_facet | DE-1049 DE-634 DE-188 DE-2070s |
| physical | xviii, 388 p. graph. Darst. 25 cm |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publishDateSearch | 2008 |
| publishDateSort | 2008 |
| publisher | Wharton School Pub. |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Damodaran, Aswath Verfasser aut Strategic risk taking a framework for risk management Aswath Damodaran Upper Saddle River, N.J. Wharton School Pub. c2008 xviii, 388 p. graph. Darst. 25 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Risk management Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s DE-604 Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s DE-188 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0715/2007014971.html Table of contents only HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016246266&sequence=000008&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Damodaran, Aswath Strategic risk taking a framework for risk management Risk management Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4121590-4 |
| title | Strategic risk taking a framework for risk management |
| title_auth | Strategic risk taking a framework for risk management |
| title_exact_search | Strategic risk taking a framework for risk management |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Strategic risk taking a framework for risk management |
| title_full | Strategic risk taking a framework for risk management Aswath Damodaran |
| title_fullStr | Strategic risk taking a framework for risk management Aswath Damodaran |
| title_full_unstemmed | Strategic risk taking a framework for risk management Aswath Damodaran |
| title_short | Strategic risk taking |
| title_sort | strategic risk taking a framework for risk management |
| title_sub | a framework for risk management |
| topic | Risk management Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Risk management Risikoanalyse Risikomanagement |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0715/2007014971.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016246266&sequence=000008&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT damodaranaswath strategicrisktakingaframeworkforriskmanagement |