Handbook of probability: theory and applications
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Los Angeles [u.a.]
Sage Publ.
2008
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 469 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 1412927145 9781412927147 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | HANDBOOK OF PROBABILITY THEORY AND APPLICATIONS TAMAS RUDAS EDITOR
EOTVOS LORAND UNIVERSITY, BUDAPEST |SAGE PUBLICATIONS LOS ANGELES *
LONDON * NEW DELHI * SINGAPORE CONTENTS PREFACE XI ADVISORY BOARD XV
PART I: BACKGROUND AND THEORY OF PROBABILITY 1 1. HISTORY OF PROBABILITY
THEORY 3 PETER M. LEE PRELIMINARY REMARKS 3 THE 16TH AND 17TH CENTURIES
4 THE 18TH CENTURY 5 THE 19TH CENTURY 7 THE 20TH CENTURY 11 REFERENCES
14 2. FREQUENTIST PROBABILITY THEORY 15 HERWIG FRIED! AND SIEGFRIED
HORMANN INTRODUCTION AND BASIC CONCEPTS 15 RANDOM VARIABLES AND
DISTRIBUTIONS 21 SEQUENCES OF INDEPENDENT RANDOM VARIABLES 29 REFERENCES
34 3. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 35 IGOR KOPYLOV INTRODUCTION 35 SUBJECTIVE
PROBABILITY AND BETTING PREFERENCES 37 SUBJECTIVE EXPECTED UTILITY 40
REFINING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES: DE FINETTI S THEOREM, BAYES S LAW,
MARKET SELECTION 43 EMPIRICAL CONTENT OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 45
SUMMARY 47 REFERENCES 47 4. PARADOXES IN PROBABILITY THEORY 49 NICHOLAS
SHACKEL INTRODUCTION 49 WEAK PARADOXES 50 STRONG PARADOXES 53 REFERENCES
65 PART II: PROBABILITY THEORY IN RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 67 5. PROBABILITY
THEORY IN STATISTICS 69 TAMAS RUDAS INTRODUCTION 69 THE FUNDAMENTAL
THEOREM OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS 70 METHODS OF ESTIMATION 71
CHARACTERIZATION AND COMPARISON OF ESTIMATORS 73 ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF
ESTIMATORS 74 CONFIDENCE INTERVALS 75 STATISTICAL HYPOTHESES 76
DECISIONS ABOUT THE HYPOTHESIS 78 THE NEYMAN-PEARSON THEORY OF TESTING
HYPOTHESES 79 THE LIKELIHOOD RATIO TEST 80 SOME TESTING PROCEDURES 81
SOME PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS 83 FURTHER READING 84 6. THE BAYESIAN
APPROACH TO STATISTICS 85 ANTHONY O HAGAN INTRODUCTION 85 BAYESIAN
INFERENCE 85 CONTRAST WITH FREQUENTIST INFERENCE 91 BAYESIAN STATISTICS
TODAY 95 CONCLUSION 99 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING 99 7. DESIGN OF
EXPERIMENTS 101 MAURO GASPARINI AND MARIA PIERA ROGANTIN EXPERIMENTS
DIFFER FROM OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES 101 A PERFECT EXPERIMENT IS
COMPARATIVE, REPLICATED, NOT CONFOUNDED, RANDOMIZED, BLOCKED, AND
OPTIMAL 102 A RESPONSE IS EXPLAINED IN TERMS OF PREDICTORS 105
UNDERSTANDING MAIN EFFECTS AND INTERACTIONS 106 INTERACTIONS AND MAIN
EFFECTS ARE TESTED AND ESTIMATED 108 AN EXAMPLE: STRESS, ALCOHOL, AND
BLOOD PRESSURE 109 SOCIAL EXPERIMENTATION IS DIFFICULT 110
EXPERIMENTATION AND SOCIETY 111 REFERENCES 112 8. CAUSATION AND CAUSAL
INFERENCE: DEFINING, IDENTIFYING, AND ESTIMATING CAUSAL EFFECTS 113
MICHAEL SOBEL INTRODUCTION 113 SOME PHILOSOPHICAL CONSIDERATIONS 113
UNIT AND AVERAGE CAUSAL EFFECTS 115 IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF
AVERAGE CAUSAL EFFECTS 119 DISCUSSION 126 REFERENCES 127 9. RANDOMNESS
AND COMPUTATION 131 ODED GOLDREICH INTRODUCTION 131 PSEUDORANDOMNESS 134
PROBABILISTIC PROOF SYSTEMS 139 CRYPTOGRAPHY 144 SUBLINEAR TIME
ALGORITHMS 146 FURTHER READING 147 REFERENCES 147 PART III: APPLICATIONS
149 10. TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS 151 MICHAEL ANTHONY LEWIS INTRODUCTION 151
THE TWO APPLICATIONS OF TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS 153 DETERMINISTIC
TIME-SERIES MODELS 154 RANDOM-WALK MODEL 156 STATIONARY AND
NONSTATIONARY TIME SERIES 157 AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS 159 THE REGRESSION
APPROACH TO TIMES-SERIES ANALYSIS AND INTERVENTION MODELS 160 CONCLUSION
162 REFERENCES 162 11. SURVIVAL ANALYSIS 163 NANCY BRANDON TUMA
INTRODUCTION 163 KEY CONCEPTS AND TERMS 163 STATISTICAL CONCEPTS 165
SURVIVAL DATA 167 EXPLORATORY ANALYSES 167 CONFIRMATORY ANALYSES 174
MODEL ESTIMATION - 181 AN EXAMPLE OF CONFIRMATORY SURVIVAL ANALYSIS 182
REFERENCES 184 12. PROBABILISTIC SAMPLING _ 187 JEFFREY M. WOOLDRIDGE
INTRODUCTION 187 RANDOM S AMPLING 188 SELECTED SAMPLING 190 INVERSE
PROBABILITY WEIGHTING 194 SELECTION ON UNOBSERVABLES 197 STRATIFIED
SAMPLING 199 CLUSTER SAMPLING 201 REFERENCES 203 13. PANEL STUDIES 205
EDWARD W. FREES AND JEE-SEON KIM INTRODUCTION 205 ACCOUNTING FOR
HETEROGENEITY 209 CORRELATED EFFECTS 213 MULTILEVEL MODELS 217 NONLINEAR
MODELS 220 HISTORICAL NOTES 221 REFERENCES 222 14. PROBABILISTIC METHODS
IN SURVEYS AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS 225 VASJA VEHOVAR, MATKA ZALETEL, AND
RUDI SELJAK INTRODUCTION 225 MAJOR OFFICIAL SAMPLE SURVEYS 226 SELECTED
PROBABILISTIC TOPICS 229 RELATED METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES 232 CONCLUSION
237 REFERENCES 238 15. PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF MEASUREMENT ERRORS 241
NICHOLAS T. LONGFORD INTRODUCTION 241 MEASUREMENT PROCESS 243 CONNECTION
TO MISSING DATA METHODS 244 IMPARTIALITY AND REGRESSION 248 OTHER
METHODS AND PROCESSES 249 DESIGN ISSUES 251 APPLICATIONS 251 DISCUSSION
254 REFERENCES 254 16. STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PSYCHOLOGICAL AND EDUCATIONAL TESTS 257 KLAAS SIJTSMA AND WILCO H. M.
EMONS INTRODUCTION 257 ASSUMPTIONS OF ITEM RESPONSE THEORY 259 SPECIAL
CASES OF (M, LI, D = 1) MODELS 260 COMPARING IRT MODELS 267 A PRACTICAL
DATA EXAMPLE: ARITHMETIC OF PROPORTIONS AND RATIOS 269 DISCUSSION , 272
REFERENCES 273 17. PROBABILISTIC SIMULATION MODELS OF SOCIETY 277 KLAUS
G. TROITZSCH INTRODUCTION 277 A SHORT TAXONOMY OF STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
277 THE CLASSICAL APPROACH: MICROANALYTICAL SIMULATION MODELS 278
MULTILEVEL MODELS 282 MULTI-AGENT MODELS 287 REFERENCES 290 18.
PROBABILISTIC NETWORK ANALYSIS 291 PHILIPPA PATTISON AND GARRY ROBINS
INTRODUCTION 291 SOCIAL NETWORKS 291 WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT MODELS
FOR SOCIAL NETWORKS? 291 NOTATION AND SOME BASIC PROPERTIES OF GRAPHS
AND DIRECTED GRAPHS 292 SIMPLE RANDOM GRAPHS AND DIRECTED GRAPHS 296
APPLICATIONS OF RANDOM GRAPH AND DIRECTED GRAPH DISTRIBUTIONS TO SOCIAL
NETWORK DATA 298 BIASED NETS 299 THE P X MODEL 299 LATENT VARIABLE
MODELS 300 MARKOV RANDOM GRAPHS 301 REALIZATION-DEPENDENT MODELS 308
EXTENSIONS 310 CONCLUSION 310 REFERENCES 310 19. GAMBLING 313 CHAS
FRIEDMAN INTRODUCTION 313 HISTORY AND ORIGINS 313 PROBABILITY AND
APPLICATIONS 314 GAMBLING IN THE LONG RUN 322 REFERENCES 327 20.
INSURANCE 329 RICHARD A. DERRIG AND KRZYSZTOF OSTASZEWSKI INTRODUCTION
329 INSURANCE PRICING FUNDAMENTALS 330 RESERVES 335 ASSET-LIABILITY
MANAGEMENT 337 INSURANCE PRICING MODELS 339 POLICYHOLDER DEMAND SIDE
MODEL 339 SHAREHOLDER SUPPLY SIDE MODEL 339 SUMMARY 341 REFERENCES 341
21. CREDIT SCORING 343 AD FEELDERS INTRODUCTION 343 FORMAL STATEMENT OF
THE PROBLEM 343 THE DATA 344 LINEAR REGRESSION 344 LOGISTIC REGRESSION
344 LATENT VARIABLE FORMULATION 348 MODEL SELECTION AND MODEL EVALUATION
350 REJECT INFERENCE 354 SUMMARY 361 REFERENCES 362
|
| adam_txt |
HANDBOOK OF PROBABILITY THEORY AND APPLICATIONS TAMAS RUDAS EDITOR
EOTVOS LORAND UNIVERSITY, BUDAPEST |SAGE PUBLICATIONS LOS ANGELES *
LONDON * NEW DELHI * SINGAPORE CONTENTS PREFACE XI ADVISORY BOARD XV
PART I: BACKGROUND AND THEORY OF PROBABILITY 1 1. HISTORY OF PROBABILITY
THEORY 3 PETER M. LEE PRELIMINARY REMARKS 3 THE 16TH AND 17TH CENTURIES
4 THE 18TH CENTURY 5 THE 19TH CENTURY 7 THE 20TH CENTURY 11 REFERENCES
14 2. FREQUENTIST PROBABILITY THEORY 15 HERWIG FRIED! AND SIEGFRIED
HORMANN INTRODUCTION AND BASIC CONCEPTS 15 RANDOM VARIABLES AND
DISTRIBUTIONS 21 SEQUENCES OF INDEPENDENT RANDOM VARIABLES 29 REFERENCES
34 3. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 35 IGOR KOPYLOV INTRODUCTION 35 SUBJECTIVE
PROBABILITY AND BETTING PREFERENCES 37 SUBJECTIVE EXPECTED UTILITY 40
REFINING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES: DE FINETTI'S THEOREM, BAYES'S LAW,
MARKET SELECTION 43 EMPIRICAL CONTENT OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 45
SUMMARY 47 REFERENCES 47 4. PARADOXES IN PROBABILITY THEORY 49 NICHOLAS
SHACKEL INTRODUCTION 49 WEAK PARADOXES 50 STRONG PARADOXES 53 REFERENCES
65 PART II: PROBABILITY THEORY IN RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 67 5. PROBABILITY
THEORY IN STATISTICS 69 TAMAS RUDAS INTRODUCTION 69 THE FUNDAMENTAL
THEOREM OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS 70 METHODS OF ESTIMATION 71
CHARACTERIZATION AND COMPARISON OF ESTIMATORS 73 ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF
ESTIMATORS 74 CONFIDENCE INTERVALS 75 STATISTICAL HYPOTHESES 76
DECISIONS ABOUT THE HYPOTHESIS 78 THE NEYMAN-PEARSON THEORY OF TESTING
HYPOTHESES 79 THE LIKELIHOOD RATIO TEST 80 SOME TESTING PROCEDURES 81
SOME PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS 83 FURTHER READING 84 6. THE BAYESIAN
APPROACH TO STATISTICS 85 ANTHONY O'HAGAN INTRODUCTION 85 BAYESIAN
INFERENCE 85 CONTRAST WITH FREQUENTIST INFERENCE 91 BAYESIAN STATISTICS
TODAY 95 CONCLUSION 99 REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING 99 7. DESIGN OF
EXPERIMENTS 101 MAURO GASPARINI AND MARIA PIERA ROGANTIN EXPERIMENTS
DIFFER FROM OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES 101 A PERFECT EXPERIMENT IS
COMPARATIVE, REPLICATED, NOT CONFOUNDED, RANDOMIZED, BLOCKED, AND
OPTIMAL 102 A RESPONSE IS EXPLAINED IN TERMS OF PREDICTORS 105
UNDERSTANDING MAIN EFFECTS AND INTERACTIONS 106 INTERACTIONS AND MAIN
EFFECTS ARE TESTED AND ESTIMATED 108 AN EXAMPLE: STRESS, ALCOHOL, AND
BLOOD PRESSURE 109 SOCIAL EXPERIMENTATION IS DIFFICULT 110
EXPERIMENTATION AND SOCIETY 111 REFERENCES 112 8. CAUSATION AND CAUSAL
INFERENCE: DEFINING, IDENTIFYING, AND ESTIMATING CAUSAL EFFECTS 113
MICHAEL SOBEL INTRODUCTION 113 SOME PHILOSOPHICAL CONSIDERATIONS 113
UNIT AND AVERAGE CAUSAL EFFECTS 115 IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF
AVERAGE CAUSAL EFFECTS 119 DISCUSSION 126 REFERENCES 127 9. RANDOMNESS
AND COMPUTATION 131 ODED GOLDREICH INTRODUCTION 131 PSEUDORANDOMNESS 134
PROBABILISTIC PROOF SYSTEMS 139 CRYPTOGRAPHY 144 SUBLINEAR TIME
ALGORITHMS 146 FURTHER READING 147 REFERENCES 147 PART III: APPLICATIONS
149 10. TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS 151 MICHAEL ANTHONY LEWIS INTRODUCTION 151
THE TWO APPLICATIONS OF TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS 153 DETERMINISTIC
TIME-SERIES MODELS 154 RANDOM-WALK MODEL 156 STATIONARY AND
NONSTATIONARY TIME SERIES 157 AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS 159 THE REGRESSION
APPROACH TO TIMES-SERIES ANALYSIS AND INTERVENTION MODELS 160 CONCLUSION
162 REFERENCES 162 11. SURVIVAL ANALYSIS 163 NANCY BRANDON TUMA
INTRODUCTION 163 KEY CONCEPTS AND TERMS 163 STATISTICAL CONCEPTS 165
SURVIVAL DATA 167 EXPLORATORY ANALYSES 167 CONFIRMATORY ANALYSES 174
MODEL ESTIMATION - 181 AN EXAMPLE OF CONFIRMATORY SURVIVAL ANALYSIS 182
REFERENCES 184 12. PROBABILISTIC SAMPLING _ 187 JEFFREY M. WOOLDRIDGE
INTRODUCTION 187 RANDOM S AMPLING 188 SELECTED SAMPLING 190 INVERSE
PROBABILITY WEIGHTING 194 SELECTION ON UNOBSERVABLES 197 STRATIFIED
SAMPLING 199 CLUSTER SAMPLING 201 REFERENCES 203 13. PANEL STUDIES 205
EDWARD W. FREES AND JEE-SEON KIM INTRODUCTION 205 ACCOUNTING FOR
HETEROGENEITY 209 CORRELATED EFFECTS 213 MULTILEVEL MODELS 217 NONLINEAR
MODELS 220 HISTORICAL NOTES 221 REFERENCES 222 14. PROBABILISTIC METHODS
IN SURVEYS AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS 225 VASJA VEHOVAR, MATKA ZALETEL, AND
RUDI SELJAK INTRODUCTION 225 MAJOR OFFICIAL SAMPLE SURVEYS 226 SELECTED
PROBABILISTIC TOPICS 229 RELATED METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES 232 CONCLUSION
237 REFERENCES 238 15. PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF MEASUREMENT ERRORS 241
NICHOLAS T. LONGFORD INTRODUCTION 241 MEASUREMENT PROCESS 243 CONNECTION
TO MISSING DATA METHODS 244 IMPARTIALITY AND REGRESSION 248 OTHER
METHODS AND PROCESSES 249 DESIGN ISSUES 251 APPLICATIONS 251 DISCUSSION
254 REFERENCES 254 16. STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PSYCHOLOGICAL AND EDUCATIONAL TESTS 257 KLAAS SIJTSMA AND WILCO H. M.
EMONS INTRODUCTION 257 ASSUMPTIONS OF ITEM RESPONSE THEORY 259 SPECIAL
CASES OF (M, LI, D = 1) MODELS 260 COMPARING IRT MODELS 267 A PRACTICAL
DATA EXAMPLE: ARITHMETIC OF PROPORTIONS AND RATIOS 269 DISCUSSION , 272
REFERENCES 273 17. PROBABILISTIC SIMULATION MODELS OF SOCIETY 277 KLAUS
G. TROITZSCH INTRODUCTION 277 A SHORT TAXONOMY OF STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
277 THE CLASSICAL APPROACH: MICROANALYTICAL SIMULATION MODELS 278
MULTILEVEL MODELS 282 MULTI-AGENT MODELS 287 REFERENCES 290 18.
PROBABILISTIC NETWORK ANALYSIS 291 PHILIPPA PATTISON AND GARRY ROBINS
INTRODUCTION 291 SOCIAL NETWORKS 291 WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT MODELS
FOR SOCIAL NETWORKS? 291 NOTATION AND SOME BASIC PROPERTIES OF GRAPHS
AND DIRECTED GRAPHS 292 SIMPLE RANDOM GRAPHS AND DIRECTED GRAPHS 296
APPLICATIONS OF RANDOM GRAPH AND DIRECTED GRAPH DISTRIBUTIONS TO SOCIAL
NETWORK DATA 298 BIASED NETS 299 THE P X MODEL 299 LATENT VARIABLE
MODELS 300 MARKOV RANDOM GRAPHS 301 REALIZATION-DEPENDENT MODELS 308
EXTENSIONS 310 CONCLUSION 310 REFERENCES 310 19. GAMBLING 313 CHAS
FRIEDMAN INTRODUCTION 313 HISTORY AND ORIGINS 313 PROBABILITY AND
APPLICATIONS 314 GAMBLING IN THE LONG RUN 322 REFERENCES 327 20.
INSURANCE 329 RICHARD A. DERRIG AND KRZYSZTOF OSTASZEWSKI INTRODUCTION
329 INSURANCE PRICING FUNDAMENTALS 330 RESERVES 335 ASSET-LIABILITY
MANAGEMENT 337 INSURANCE PRICING MODELS 339 POLICYHOLDER DEMAND SIDE
MODEL 339 SHAREHOLDER SUPPLY SIDE MODEL 339 SUMMARY 341 REFERENCES 341
21. CREDIT SCORING 343 AD FEELDERS INTRODUCTION 343 FORMAL STATEMENT OF
THE PROBLEM 343 THE DATA 344 LINEAR REGRESSION 344 LOGISTIC REGRESSION
344 LATENT VARIABLE FORMULATION 348 MODEL SELECTION AND MODEL EVALUATION
350 REJECT INFERENCE 354 SUMMARY 361 REFERENCES 362 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-02T19:19:09Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:09:31Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1412927145 9781412927147 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2007036434 |
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| spelling | Handbook of probability theory and applications Tamás Rudas, ed. Los Angeles [u.a.] Sage Publ. 2008 XV, 469 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Waarschijnlijkheid (statistiek) gtt Probabilities Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 gnd rswk-swf Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 s DE-604 Rudas, Tamás Sonstige oth HEBIS Datenaustausch Darmstadt application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016240241&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Handbook of probability theory and applications Waarschijnlijkheid (statistiek) gtt Probabilities Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4079013-7 |
| title | Handbook of probability theory and applications |
| title_auth | Handbook of probability theory and applications |
| title_exact_search | Handbook of probability theory and applications |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Handbook of probability theory and applications |
| title_full | Handbook of probability theory and applications Tamás Rudas, ed. |
| title_fullStr | Handbook of probability theory and applications Tamás Rudas, ed. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Handbook of probability theory and applications Tamás Rudas, ed. |
| title_short | Handbook of probability |
| title_sort | handbook of probability theory and applications |
| title_sub | theory and applications |
| topic | Waarschijnlijkheid (statistiek) gtt Probabilities Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Waarschijnlijkheid (statistiek) Probabilities Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016240241&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rudastamas handbookofprobabilitytheoryandapplications |