Prediction or prophecy?: the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Abschlussarbeit Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Wiesbaden
Dt. Univ.-Verl.
2006
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. Aufl. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | BTU01 FHM01 FHR01 UBG01 UBR01 UBT01 UBY01 UEI03 UPA01 Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource |
| ISBN: | 9783835002234 9783835090538 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-8350-9053-8 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Betz, Gregor |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Prediction or prophecy? |b the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences |c Gregor Betz |
| 250 | |a 1. Aufl. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Wiesbaden |b Dt. Univ.-Verl. |c 2006 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804137218002911232 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The general approach of this inquiry 1
1.2 A very short theory of forecasting 7
1 Assessing the predictive limits of economics 19
2 Recent performance of economic forecasts 21
2.1 General performance 21
2.2 The performance of different forecasters 27
2.3 ... and different forecasting methods 29
2.4 Forecasting financial variables 38
2.5 Common problems 40
3 Historical perspective 43
3.1 The history of economic forecasting 43
3.2 Predictive progress of Macroeconomics 48
3.3 Use and performance of methods 51
4 Forecast performance in natural sciences 53
4.1 Progress on the experimental level 53
4.2 Progress on the theoretical level 61
4.3 Progress outside of laboratories 68
II Understanding the predictive limits of economics 79
5 Predictability of complex systems 81
5.1 Explicating complexity 81
5.2 External effects 83
5.3 Directional and non directional forecasts 84
5.4 Theory independence of macroeconomic forecasting 86
X Contents
6 The quality of data 93
6.1 Explicating data quality 93
6.2 How does data quality influence forecast quality? 95
6.3 General data related problems in macro systems 97
6.4 Quality of GDP data 99
6.5 Data quality in climatology 108
7 Expectations and reflexiveness 113
7.1 Morgenstern s argument 113
7.2 Constructing self fulfilling forecasts 117
7.3 Forecast neutrality under rational expectations 121
8 Sensitive dependence on initial conditions 131
8.1 Sensitive dependence on initial conditions and forecasting . ... 131
8.2 The coupled oscillators route 135
8.3 The cellular automata route 139
8.4 Justified objections 143
9 Experiment and simulation 145
9.1 The promise 145
9.2 Reliability of simulations 146
9.3 The constructive approach: computer simulation 150
9.4 The conservative approach: experimental economics 152
9.5 Density forecasting 159
10 Unrealistic assumption explanations 163
10.1 Unrealistic assumptions of macroeconomic forecasts 163
10.2 Reconstructing the unrealistic assumption explanation 165
10.3 Criticizing the unrealistic assumption explanation 166
10.4 An alternative explanation involving unrealistic assumptions . . 169
III Living with the predictive limits of economics 175
11 Consequences for traditional decision making 177
11.1 Instrumental rationality 177
11.2 The standard pattern of rational conduct 180
11.3 The probabilistic account of rational decision making 184
11.4 A causal account of rational conduct 189
11.5 Uncertainty and ignorance 191
Contents XI
12 Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance 197
12.1 How to deal with ignorance 197
12.2 The quasi probabilistic approach 198
12.3 Extremum principles 202
12.4 Decision sequences and maximin 210
12.5 Counting possibilities and future options 213
12.6 The organism metaphor 223
13 Post normal science 231
13.1 Introducing post normal science 231
13.2 Epistemic arguments for PNS 236
13.3 Normative arguments for PNS 245
13.4 Dangers and a modification of PNS 253
Appendix 255
Bibliography 263
Index 275
List of Figures
1.1 Geometrical illustration of RMSE and MAE 14
2.1 ASA NBER record 24
2.2 Head and shoulder formation 32
2.3 Bear trap 33
2.4 The Bank of England s fan charts 35
3.1 The Harvard ABC 45
3.2 German Business Barometer 46
4.1 Ice calorimeter of Lavoisier and Laplace 56
4.2 Original instrument of Lavoisier and Laplace 57
4.3 Ice calorimeter of Bunsen 58
4.4 Modern adiabatic calorimeter 59
4.5 High precision DS calorimeter 60
4.6 Variations of steam pressure with temperature 63
4.7 Isotherms in a Z p diagram of nitrogen 66
4.8 p V T surface of water 67
4.9 Basic design of a general circulation model 70
4.10 16 climate models in a Taylor diagram 72
4.11 Global annual mean temperature anomalies in the 20th century ... 73
4.12 Surface sea temperature anomalies due to El Nino 74
4.13 Global mean temperature change in the 21st century 76
4.14 Global sea level rise in the 21st century 77
5.1 The phase diagram of the RCK model 90
5.2 Effects of parameter shifts in the RCK model 91
6.1 The data matrix 96
6.2 The scale diagram 97
6.3 A simple model of economic circulation 100
6.4 Palaeoclimate temperature reconstruction 109
7.1 Reaction functions 118
XIV List of Figures
8.1 The routes to chaos approach 135
8.2 Attractors of coupled Kaldor models 137
8.3 Simplified feedback loops 138
8.4 Examples of the four Wolfram classes 140
8.5 Difference diagrams of cellular automata 141
9.1 The conservative approach to simulation 147
9.2 Large circulation tunnel 148
9.3 The constructive approach to simulation 149
9.4 Computer simulation of planetary motion 150
9.5 Induced supply and demand curves 154
10.1 The molecular kinetic deduction of the ideal gas law 170
11.1 The a and the ,3 tree 180
11.2 The 7 and the £ tree 192
12.1 An expanded 7 tree 211
12.2 Evaluating decisions with recursive maximin rules 212
12.3 Evaluating decisions with the minimize uncertainty principle .... 215
12.4 The uncertainty reduction assumption 217
12.5 Openness approach and maximin principle combined 218
12.6 Rosenhead s decision tree 219
12.7 A Rosenhead problem in an expanded 7 tree 221
12.8 Time inconsistencies 222
13.1 The scope of application of post normal science 235
13.2 Blueprint for an uncertainty assessment report 249
List of Tables
2.1 Literature basis of forecast evaluation 22
2.2 Matrix of economic forecasting methods 30
6.1 Difference between former and revised GDP data 102
6.2 Expenditure and the income approach 104
8.1 CA structures in the economic system 142
12.1 The mean approach 200
12.2 Robustness scores 220
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The general approach of this inquiry 1
1.2 A very short theory of forecasting 7
1 Assessing the predictive limits of economics 19
2 Recent performance of economic forecasts 21
2.1 General performance 21
2.2 The performance of different forecasters 27
2.3 . and different forecasting methods 29
2.4 Forecasting financial variables 38
2.5 Common problems 40
3 Historical perspective 43
3.1 The history of economic forecasting 43
3.2 Predictive progress of Macroeconomics 48
3.3 Use and performance of methods 51
4 Forecast performance in natural sciences 53
4.1 Progress on the experimental level 53
4.2 Progress on the theoretical level 61
4.3 Progress outside of laboratories 68
II Understanding the predictive limits of economics 79
5 Predictability of complex systems 81
5.1 Explicating complexity 81
5.2 External effects 83
5.3 Directional and non directional forecasts 84
5.4 Theory independence of macroeconomic forecasting 86
X Contents
6 The quality of data 93
6.1 Explicating data quality 93
6.2 How does data quality influence forecast quality? 95
6.3 General data related problems in macro systems 97
6.4 Quality of GDP data 99
6.5 Data quality in climatology 108
7 Expectations and reflexiveness 113
7.1 Morgenstern's argument 113
7.2 Constructing self fulfilling forecasts 117
7.3 Forecast neutrality under rational expectations 121
8 Sensitive dependence on initial conditions 131
8.1 Sensitive dependence on initial conditions and forecasting . . 131
8.2 The coupled oscillators route 135
8.3 The cellular automata route 139
8.4 Justified objections 143
9 Experiment and simulation 145
9.1 The promise 145
9.2 Reliability of simulations 146
9.3 The constructive approach: computer simulation 150
9.4 The conservative approach: experimental economics 152
9.5 Density forecasting 159
10 Unrealistic assumption explanations 163
10.1 Unrealistic assumptions of macroeconomic forecasts 163
10.2 Reconstructing the unrealistic assumption explanation 165
10.3 Criticizing the unrealistic assumption explanation 166
10.4 An alternative explanation involving unrealistic assumptions . . 169
III Living with the predictive limits of economics 175
11 Consequences for traditional decision making 177
11.1 Instrumental rationality 177
11.2 The standard pattern of rational conduct 180
11.3 The probabilistic account of rational decision making 184
11.4 A causal account of rational conduct 189
11.5 Uncertainty and ignorance 191
Contents XI
12 Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance 197
12.1 How to deal with ignorance 197
12.2 The quasi probabilistic approach 198
12.3 Extremum principles 202
12.4 Decision sequences and maximin 210
12.5 Counting possibilities and future options 213
12.6 The organism metaphor 223
13 Post normal science 231
13.1 Introducing post normal science 231
13.2 Epistemic arguments for PNS 236
13.3 Normative arguments for PNS 245
13.4 Dangers and a modification of PNS 253
Appendix 255
Bibliography 263
Index 275
List of Figures
1.1 Geometrical illustration of RMSE and MAE 14
2.1 ASA NBER record 24
2.2 Head and shoulder formation 32
2.3 Bear trap 33
2.4 The Bank of England's fan charts 35
3.1 The Harvard ABC 45
3.2 German Business Barometer 46
4.1 Ice calorimeter of Lavoisier and Laplace 56
4.2 Original instrument of Lavoisier and Laplace 57
4.3 Ice calorimeter of Bunsen 58
4.4 Modern adiabatic calorimeter 59
4.5 High precision DS calorimeter 60
4.6 Variations of steam pressure with temperature 63
4.7 Isotherms in a Z p diagram of nitrogen 66
4.8 p V T surface of water 67
4.9 Basic design of a general circulation model 70
4.10 16 climate models in a Taylor diagram 72
4.11 Global annual mean temperature anomalies in the 20th century . 73
4.12 Surface sea temperature anomalies due to El Nino 74
4.13 Global mean temperature change in the 21st century 76
4.14 Global sea level rise in the 21st century 77
5.1 The phase diagram of the RCK model 90
5.2 Effects of parameter shifts in the RCK model 91
6.1 The data matrix 96
6.2 The scale diagram 97
6.3 A simple model of economic circulation 100
6.4 Palaeoclimate temperature reconstruction 109
7.1 Reaction functions 118
XIV List of Figures
8.1 The routes to chaos approach 135
8.2 Attractors of coupled Kaldor models 137
8.3 Simplified feedback loops 138
8.4 Examples of the four Wolfram classes 140
8.5 Difference diagrams of cellular automata 141
9.1 The conservative approach to simulation 147
9.2 Large circulation tunnel 148
9.3 The constructive approach to simulation 149
9.4 Computer simulation of planetary motion 150
9.5 Induced supply and demand curves 154
10.1 The molecular kinetic deduction of the ideal gas law 170
11.1 The a and the ,3 tree 180
11.2 The 7 and the £ tree 192
12.1 An expanded 7 tree 211
12.2 Evaluating decisions with recursive maximin rules 212
12.3 Evaluating decisions with the minimize uncertainty principle . 215
12.4 The uncertainty reduction assumption 217
12.5 Openness approach and maximin principle combined 218
12.6 Rosenhead's decision tree 219
12.7 A Rosenhead problem in an expanded 7 tree 221
12.8 Time inconsistencies 222
13.1 The scope of application of post normal science 235
13.2 Blueprint for an uncertainty assessment report 249
List of Tables
2.1 Literature basis of forecast evaluation 22
2.2 Matrix of economic forecasting methods 30
6.1 Difference between former and revised GDP data 102
6.2 Expenditure and the income approach 104
8.1 CA structures in the economic system 142
12.1 The mean approach 200
12.2 Robustness scores 220 |
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| genre | (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Hochschulschrift |
| id | DE-604.BV022967733 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T19:07:21Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:08:48Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783835002234 9783835090538 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016172068 |
| oclc_num | 873450689 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-945 DE-739 DE-706 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-M347 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-634 DE-703 |
| owner_facet | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-945 DE-739 DE-706 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-M347 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-634 DE-703 |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource |
| psigel | ZDB-2-SBE |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publishDateSearch | 2006 |
| publishDateSort | 2006 |
| publisher | Dt. Univ.-Verl. |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Betz, Gregor Verfasser aut Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences Gregor Betz 1. Aufl. Wiesbaden Dt. Univ.-Verl. 2006 1 Online-Ressource txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Dissertation Freie Universität Berlin 2004 Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Begrenztheit (DE-588)4208189-0 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Begrenztheit (DE-588)4208189-0 s b DE-604 Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe, Paperback 3-8350-0223-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8350-9053-8 Verlag Volltext HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016172068&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Betz, Gregor Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Begrenztheit (DE-588)4208189-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4208189-0 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences |
| title_auth | Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences |
| title_exact_search | Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences |
| title_full | Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences Gregor Betz |
| title_fullStr | Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences Gregor Betz |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences Gregor Betz |
| title_short | Prediction or prophecy? |
| title_sort | prediction or prophecy the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio political consequences |
| title_sub | the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences |
| topic | Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Begrenztheit (DE-588)4208189-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaft Prognose Begrenztheit Hochschulschrift |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8350-9053-8 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016172068&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT betzgregor predictionorprophecytheboundariesofeconomicforeknowledgeandtheirsociopoliticalconsequences |