Climate change in Germany: vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Dessau
Umweltbundesamt
2005
|
| Ausgabe: | Als Ms. gedr. |
| Schriftenreihe: | UB-FB
844 |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Zsfassung in dt. Sprache. - Gedr. Langfassung d. UBA-Forschungberichtes (elektron. Ress.) |
| Beschreibung: | 205 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Climate change in Germany |b vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors |c by Marc Zebisch ... |
| 250 | |a Als Ms. gedr. | ||
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| 300 | |a 205 S. |b graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804137180340158464 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Table
of Contents
1
INTRODUCTION
...............................................................................................13
1.1
Objectives and Structure of the Report
.............................................................13
1.1.1
Objectives
............................................................................................13
1.1.2
Structure of the Report
...........................................................................13
1.2
Global Change
.............................................................................................14
1.2.1
Global Climate Change
-
Historical Development
........................................14
1.2.2
Global Climate Change
-
Projections of Future Development
........................15
1.2.3
Climate Change in Europe
.......................................................................16
1.2.4
Other Drivers of Global Change
................................................................16
1.3
Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
..............................................................17
1.3.1
The Interrelation Between Ecosystems and Society: Ecosystem Services
.......17
1.3.2
Past and Current Impacts of Global Change on Ecosystem Services and
Society
17
1.3.3
The Concepts Vulnerability,
Adapta
tion
and Adaptive Capacity.
.....................18
1.3.4
Adaptation Strategies and the Roles of Science and Policy
...........................20
1.4
State-of-the-art in International and National Research
......................................21
1.5
References
..................................................................................................23
2
CONCEPTS AND METHODS
...............................................................................26
2.1
Socio-economic Scenarios and Emission Scenarios
..............................................26
2.2
Climate Scenarios
.........................................................................................27
2.3
Land-Use Scenarios
......................................................................................28
2.4
Ecosystem Models
-
Quantification of Potential Impacts
.......................................29
2.5
Results from Other Studies and Projects
...........................................................29
2.6
Survey of Regional Experts
.............................................................................29
2.7
Stakeholder-Workshop
..................................................................................32
2.8
Integrated Vulnerability Assessment
................................................................34
2.9
References
..................................................................................................35
3
GLOBAL CHANGE IN GERMANY: CLIMATE CHANGE, LAND USE CHANGE
AND CARBON BALANCE
..........................................................................................37
3.1
Climate Change
............................................................................................37
3.1.1
Historical Trends
....................................................................................37
3.1.2
Scenarios of Future Climate Change
.........................................................39
3.2
Land-Use Change
..........................................................................................42
3.3
Net Carbon Balance of the Terrestrial Biosphere
................................................43
3.4
References
..................................................................................................45
3.5
Annex
.........................................................................................................46
4
IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN
SELECTED CLIMATE-SENSITIVE SYSTEMS
..............................................................48
4.1
Water Balance, Supply and Distribution
............................................................48
4.1.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Water Sector
..............................................48
4.1.2
Water and Climate
.................................................................................49
4.1.3
Baseline Situation
:
Water Supply and Distribution in Germany
..................... 49
4.1.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Trends and Projections
..................................52
4.1.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.....................56
4.1.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
............................................58
4.1.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles in Adaptation
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
........................................................................
-·59
4.1.8
References
.........................................................................................-.64
4.1.9
Annex
..................................................................................................66
4.2
Agriculture
.................................................................................................68
4.2.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Agricultural Sector.
......................................68
4.2.2
Agriculture and Climate
..........................................................................68
4.2.3
Baseline situation: Agriculture in Germany
................................................70
4.2.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Trends and Projections
.................................-73
4.2.5
Impacts
of Climate
Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.....................76
4.2.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
............................................78
4.2.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
...........................................................................79
4.2.8
References
...........................................................................................85
4.3
Forestry
....................,.....,,...............,.........................................................87
4.3.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Forestry Sector
...........................................87
4.3.2
Forestry and Climate
..............................................................................
SS
4.3.3
Baseline Situation: Forestry in Germany
....................................................89
4.3.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Trends and Projections
..................................92
4.3.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.....................94
4.3.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
............................................97
4.3.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
...........................................................................98
4.3.8
References
.........................................................................................105
4.3.9
Annex
................................................................................................107
4.4
Biodiversity and Nature Conservation
.............................................................109
4.4.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Nature Conservation Sector
........................109
4.4.2
Biodiversity and Climate
.......................................................................110
4.4.3
Baseline situation: Biodiversity and Nature Conservation in Germany
..........
Ill
4.4.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Trends and Projections
................................112
4.4.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
...................113
4.4.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
..........................................114
4.4.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
.........................................................................115
4.4.8
References
.........................................................................................120
4.4.9
Annex
................................................................................................122
4.5
Health
......................................................................................................124
4.5.1
Summary: Vulnerability in the Health Sector.
...........................................124
4.5.2
Health and Climate
..............................................................................125
4.5.3
Baseline Situation: Health and Climate in Germany.
..................................126
4.5.4
Impact of Climate Change
-
Results from the Literature
............................129
4.5.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
...................129
4.5.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
..........................................132
4.5.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
.........................................................................132
4.5.8
References
.........................................................................................139
4.6
Tourism
....................................................................................................140
4.6.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Tourism Sector
.........................................140
4.6.2
Tourism and Climate
............................................................................141
4.6.3
Baseline Situation: Tourism in Germany
..................................................141
4.6.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Results from the Literature
...........................142
4.6.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
...................¿45
4.6.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
..........................................146
4.6.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
.........................................................................147
4.6.8
References
.........................................................................................151
4.7
Transport
.................................................................................................153
4.7.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Transport Sector
.......................................153
4.7.2
Transport and Climate
..........................................................................153
4.7.3
Baseline Situation: Transport in Germany
................................................154
4.7.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Results from the Literature
...........................155
4.7.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
...................156
4.7.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
..........................................157
4.7.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
.........................................................................157
4.7.8
References
.........................................................................................161
5
RESULTS OF THE STAKEHOLDER-WORKSHOP
................................................162
5.1
Results of the Participants Interviews Prior to the Workshop
.............................162
5.2
Results of the Workshop
..............................................................................164
6
CONCLUSIONS
AND RECOMMENDATIONS
...................................................... 168
6.1
Vulnerable Regions and Sectors in Germany
.....................................................168
6.1.1
Regions
..............................................................................................169
6.1.2
Sectors
...............................................................................................270
6.2
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change in Germany
.....................................172
6.2.1
Adaptation and Emission Reduction
........................................................172
6.2.2
Adaptation as a Task of Communication
..................................................173
6.2.3
Adaptation as Decision-Making under Uncertainty
.....................................176
6.2.4
Eight-Stage Decision Support System for the Adaptation to Climate
Change
178
6.2.5
Adaptation as a Challenge to Society
......................................................182
6.3
References
................................................................................................185
7
SUMMARY
& ZUSAMMENFASSUNG.................................................................186
7.1
Summary
...................................................................................................186
7.2 Zusammenfassung.......................................................................................195
|
| adam_txt |
Table
of Contents
1
INTRODUCTION
.13
1.1
Objectives and Structure of the Report
.13
1.1.1
Objectives
.13
1.1.2
Structure of the Report
.13
1.2
Global Change
.14
1.2.1
Global Climate Change
-
Historical Development
.14
1.2.2
Global Climate Change
-
Projections of Future Development
.15
1.2.3
Climate Change in Europe
.16
1.2.4
Other Drivers of Global Change
.16
1.3
Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
.17
1.3.1
The Interrelation Between Ecosystems and Society: Ecosystem Services
.17
1.3.2
Past and Current Impacts of Global Change on Ecosystem Services and
Society
17
1.3.3
The Concepts Vulnerability,
Adapta
tion
and Adaptive Capacity.
.18
1.3.4
Adaptation Strategies and the Roles of Science and Policy
.20
1.4
State-of-the-art in International and National Research
.21
1.5
References
.23
2
CONCEPTS AND METHODS
.26
2.1
Socio-economic Scenarios and Emission Scenarios
.26
2.2
Climate Scenarios
.27
2.3
Land-Use Scenarios
.28
2.4
Ecosystem Models
-
Quantification of Potential Impacts
.29
2.5
Results from Other Studies and Projects
.29
2.6
Survey of Regional Experts
.29
2.7
Stakeholder-Workshop
.32
2.8
Integrated Vulnerability Assessment
.34
2.9
References
.35
3
GLOBAL CHANGE IN GERMANY: CLIMATE CHANGE, LAND USE CHANGE
AND CARBON BALANCE
.37
3.1
Climate Change
.37
3.1.1
Historical Trends
.37
3.1.2
Scenarios of Future Climate Change
.39
3.2
Land-Use Change
.42
3.3
Net Carbon Balance of the Terrestrial Biosphere
.43
3.4
References
.45
3.5
Annex
.46
4
IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN
SELECTED CLIMATE-SENSITIVE SYSTEMS
.48
4.1
Water Balance, Supply and Distribution
.48
4.1.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Water Sector
.48
4.1.2
Water and Climate
.49
4.1.3
Baseline Situation
:
Water Supply and Distribution in Germany
. 49
4.1.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Trends and Projections
.52
4.1.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.56
4.1.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
.58
4.1.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles in Adaptation
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.
-·59
4.1.8
References
.-.64
4.1.9
Annex
.66
4.2
Agriculture
.68
4.2.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Agricultural Sector.
.68
4.2.2
Agriculture and Climate
.68
4.2.3
Baseline situation: Agriculture in Germany
.70
4.2.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Trends and Projections
.-73
4.2.5
Impacts
of Climate
Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.76
4.2.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
.78
4.2.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
.79
4.2.8
References
.85
4.3
Forestry
.,.,,.,.87
4.3.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Forestry Sector
.87
4.3.2
Forestry and Climate
.
SS
4.3.3
Baseline Situation: Forestry in Germany
.89
4.3.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Trends and Projections
.92
4.3.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.94
4.3.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
.97
4.3.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
.98
4.3.8
References
.105
4.3.9
Annex
.107
4.4
Biodiversity and Nature Conservation
.109
4.4.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Nature Conservation Sector
.109
4.4.2
Biodiversity and Climate
.110
4.4.3
Baseline situation: Biodiversity and Nature Conservation in Germany
.
Ill
4.4.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Trends and Projections
.112
4.4.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.113
4.4.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
.114
4.4.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
.115
4.4.8
References
.120
4.4.9
Annex
.122
4.5
Health
.124
4.5.1
Summary: Vulnerability in the Health Sector.
.124
4.5.2
Health and Climate
.125
4.5.3
Baseline Situation: Health and Climate in Germany.
.126
4.5.4
Impact of Climate Change
-
Results from the Literature
.129
4.5.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.129
4.5.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
.132
4.5.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
.132
4.5.8
References
.139
4.6
Tourism
.140
4.6.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Tourism Sector
.140
4.6.2
Tourism and Climate
.141
4.6.3
Baseline Situation: Tourism in Germany
.141
4.6.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Results from the Literature
.142
4.6.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.¿45
4.6.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
.146
4.6.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
.147
4.6.8
References
.151
4.7
Transport
.153
4.7.1
Summary: Vulnerability of the Transport Sector
.153
4.7.2
Transport and Climate
.153
4.7.3
Baseline Situation: Transport in Germany
.154
4.7.4
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Results from the Literature
.155
4.7.5
Impacts of Climate Change
-
Assessment by Regional Experts
.156
4.7.6
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change
.157
4.7.7
Effectiveness, Degree of Implementation and Obstacles of Adaptation:
Assessment of Regional Experts
.157
4.7.8
References
.161
5
RESULTS OF THE STAKEHOLDER-WORKSHOP
.162
5.1
Results of the Participants'Interviews Prior to the Workshop
.162
5.2
Results of the Workshop
.164
6
CONCLUSIONS
AND RECOMMENDATIONS
. 168
6.1
Vulnerable Regions and Sectors in Germany
.168
6.1.1
Regions
.169
6.1.2
Sectors
.270
6.2
Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change in Germany
.172
6.2.1
Adaptation and Emission Reduction
.172
6.2.2
Adaptation as a Task of Communication
.173
6.2.3
Adaptation as Decision-Making under Uncertainty
.176
6.2.4
Eight-Stage Decision Support System for the Adaptation to Climate
Change
178
6.2.5
Adaptation as a Challenge to Society
.182
6.3
References
.185
7
SUMMARY
& ZUSAMMENFASSUNG.186
7.1
Summary
.186
7.2 Zusammenfassung.195 |
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| id | DE-604.BV022942345 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T18:58:29Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:08:12Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Climate change in Germany vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors by Marc Zebisch ... Als Ms. gedr. Dessau Umweltbundesamt 2005 205 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier UB-FB 844 Zsfassung in dt. Sprache. - Gedr. Langfassung d. UBA-Forschungberichtes (elektron. Ress.) Zebisch, Marc 1969- Sonstige (DE-588)128885343 oth Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016146975&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Climate change in Germany vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors |
| title | Climate change in Germany vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors |
| title_auth | Climate change in Germany vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors |
| title_exact_search | Climate change in Germany vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Climate change in Germany vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors |
| title_full | Climate change in Germany vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors by Marc Zebisch ... |
| title_fullStr | Climate change in Germany vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors by Marc Zebisch ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change in Germany vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors by Marc Zebisch ... |
| title_short | Climate change in Germany |
| title_sort | climate change in germany vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors |
| title_sub | vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016146975&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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