Economic growth and integration in Central America:
How to entrench hard-won gains, increase resilience to shocks, and improve growth performance to reduce poverty? As Central America moves forward in regaining macroeconomic stability, these are the challenges. This study analyzes Central America's real, fiscal, monetary, and financial sector po...
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, DC
Internat. Monetary Fund
2007
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund
257 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | How to entrench hard-won gains, increase resilience to shocks, and improve growth performance to reduce poverty? As Central America moves forward in regaining macroeconomic stability, these are the challenges. This study analyzes Central America's real, fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policies at the regional level, starting with a review of growth performance and the macroeconomic implications of remittances. It then looks at the sustainability of pension systems, financial system development, sovereign debt vulnerabilities, and ways to sustain progress in reducing inflation by strengthening the credibility of central banks.--Publisher's description. |
| Beschreibung: | VIII, 102 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9781589066168 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Economic growth and integration in Central America |c ed. by Dominique Desruelle ... |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, DC |b Internat. Monetary Fund |c 2007 | |
| 300 | |a VIII, 102 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 490 | 1 | |a Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund |v 257 | |
| 520 | 8 | |a How to entrench hard-won gains, increase resilience to shocks, and improve growth performance to reduce poverty? As Central America moves forward in regaining macroeconomic stability, these are the challenges. This study analyzes Central America's real, fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policies at the regional level, starting with a review of growth performance and the macroeconomic implications of remittances. It then looks at the sustainability of pension systems, financial system development, sovereign debt vulnerabilities, and ways to sustain progress in reducing inflation by strengthening the credibility of central banks.--Publisher's description. | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaftswachstum | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Zentralamerika | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Sammelwerk / Collection of articles of several authors - 39 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Schuldenerlass |2 swd | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaftswachstum / Wirtschaftspolitik / Mittelamerika | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Öffentliche Schulden |2 swd | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaft | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaftspolitik | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Debts, Public |z Central America | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Dettes publiques |z Amérique centrale | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Zentralamerika |2 swd | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Amérique centrale |x Conditions économiques | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Amérique centrale |x Politique économique | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Central America |x Economic conditions | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Central America |x Economic integration | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Central America |x Economic policy | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Desruelle, Dominique |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 810 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund |t Occasional paper |v 257 |w (DE-604)BV002597241 |9 257 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804136783163686912 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Foreword vii
Preface viii
I Overview I
Dominique Desruelle and Alfred Schipke
Recent Developments 1
Key Policy Issues 2
Integration and Policy Coordination 5
Moving Forward 7
References 7
II Growth Performance 8
Jose Brambila Maci as, Guy Meredith, and lvanna Vladkova Hollar
Stylized Facts 8
Growth Accounting 10
Bottlenecks to Productivity Growth 14
Empirical Analysis 16
Conclusions 19
Appendix 2.1. Countries Included in the Sample 21
Appendix 2.2. Fit of the Regression Model for the
Central American Countries 21
References 21
IM Pension Reform 23
Kevin Fletcher and Alfred Schipke
Basic Structures of Public Pension Systems 23
Comparison of Key Parameters 26
Special Regimes 32
Recent Reform Developments 32
Pension Reform and Development of Local Capital Markets 33
Reform Options 34
Conclusions 37
Appendix 3.1. Country-by-Country Descriptions of Recent Reforms 38
References 41
IV Assessing Sovereign Debt Structures 43
Andre Faria and Guillermo Tolosa
Analysis of Sovereign Debt Structure in the
Context of a Balance Sheet Approach 43
Sovereign Debt Across Countries and Over Time 44
Determinants of Debt Structure 49
Closer Look at Vulnerabilities 53
Conclusions 56
References 57
V. Financial Sector Development: Public Debt Markets 60
HemantShah
Financial Sector in Central America 61
Organization of Public Debt Management 62
Dual Sovereign Issuers: Government and the Central Bank 63
Primary Issuance of Public Debt 65
Secondary Markets 70
Investor Universe, and Regulation of Investments in Public Debt 71
The Challenge of Creating a Regional Market 72
Key Problems and Recommendations 73
Conclusions 76
VI. Characterizing Monetary Policy 77
Luis I. Jäcome H. and Eric Parrado
Institutional Framework for Monetary Policy 77
A Snapshot of Monetary Policy Formulation and Execution 84
Empirical Regularities Supporting the Characterization of
Monetary Policy 87
Conclusions 91
Appendix 6.1. Policy Reaction Function 93
References 100
Boxes
2.1. Growth Accounting Framework 11
4.1. Measures of Currency Mismatch Risk 48
Tables
1.1. Central America: Real GDP Growth 2
1.2. Central America: Regional and Bilateral Free Trade Agreements 6
2.1. Central America: Long-Term Real GDP Growth by Country 9
2.2. Growth Accounting Across Regions, 1960-2003 11
2.3. Ranking ofEase ofDoing Business 16
2.4. Cross-Country Growth Regressions 17
2.5. Fixed-Effects Panel Regressions 18
2.6. Scores of Institutional Quality 19
2.7. Estimated Impact on Growth oflmproving Institutions 19
2A1. Actual and Predicted Growth, Cross-Sectional Regressions,
1995-2003 21
3.1. Main Characteristics of Mandatory Public Old Age
Pension Systems 24
3.2. Defined-Benefit Systems: Average and Minimum
Old Age Pensions 28
3.3. Defined-Benefit Systems: Balances and Reserves, 2004 29
3.4. Projected Population Aging 29
3.5. Defined-Benefit Systems: Real Internal Rates of
Return on Contributions 30
3.6. Replacement Rates under Different Rates of
Return in First-Pillar, Defined-Contribution Systems 31
3.7. Administrative Costs in Defined-Benefit Systems 32
4.1. Domestie Debt Share Determinants 51
4.2. Elasticity of Ratio of Dcbt to GDP vis-ä-vis the
Real Exchange Rate 54
4.3. Elasticity of the Sovereign s Leverage Ratio vis-ä-vis the
Real Exchange Rate 55
4.4. Ratio ot Short-Term Debt to Reserves 56
5.1. Structure ot Financial System 62
5.2. Securities Issued by the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank 67
5.3. Auction Mechanisms for Public Debt Securities 68
5.4. Secondary Trading of Fixed-lncome Dornestic Securities 71
6.1. Breakdown of Index of Legal Central Bank Independence:
Central America versus South America and Mexico 82
6.2. Taxonomy of Monetary Policy Strategies 84
6.3. Volatilities of Selected Macroeconomic Variables. 2000-05 86
6.4. Interest Rate Reaction Function of Central Banks. 1996-2005 89
6.5. Exchange Rate Crawl Reaction Function. 1996-2005 91
6.6. Central Banks Money Reaction Function. 1996-2005 92
6A.1. Main Provisions of Central Bank Legislation as of 2005 94
6A.2. Main Features of Monetary Policy 97
Figures
1.1. Central America: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators 3
2.1. Poverty Rates. Nationally Defined Poverty Line 8
2.2. Central America: Long-Term Real GDPGrowth 9
2.3. Real Per Capita GDP byCountry 10
2.4. Central America: Growth Accounting 12
2.5. Central America: Per Capita GDP and Total
Factor Productivity 12
2.6. Real Per Capita GDP and Total Factor Productivity by Country 13
2.7. Central America: Real Per Capita GDP 14
2.8. Trade Openness: Total Exports Plus Imports 15
2.9. Exports to the United States 15
2.10. Comparison of Institutional Ratings 18
2A.1. Growth Accounting. by Country 20
3.1. Pension Coverage: Number of Contributors as a
Share of the Labor Force. 2003 26
3.2. Contribution Rates for Mandatory Old Age. Disability.
and Survivor Pensions 27
3.3. Standard Retirement Age and Life Expectancy at Age 60 28
4.1. Composition of Sovereign Debt 45
4.2. Structure ofExternal Debt, 2001-05 46
4.3. Foreign Currency Debt 47
4.4. Short-Term Debt 50
4.5. Domestic Debt: Predicted and Actual 51
4.6a. Domestic Debt and Foreign Currency Dcbt Share 52
4.6b. Inflation History and Foreign Currency Debt 53
4.7. Short-Term Share and Total Debt 54
4.8. Sovereign Debt 55
4.9. Debt with Variable Interest Rate. 2005 56
4.10. VolatilityofRevenue Growth. 1990-2005 57
5.1. Domestic Central Bank Debt/Domestie Government Debt. 2005 64
5.2. Potential Debt Auctions Per Year 69
5.3. Actual Debt Auctions Per Year 70
6.1. Inflation in Central America and the Western Hemisphere 78
6.2. Inflation in Central America, the Western Hemisphere.
and Industrialized Countries 78
6.3. Legal Central Bank Independence before and after Reform 81
6.4. Legal Central Bank Independence, All Latin America 81
6.5. Central Bank Reform and Inflation in Central America 82
6.6. Inflation and Legal Central Bank Independence in
Latin America, 2000-03 83
6.7. Inflation and Legal Central Bank Independence in
Latin America, 2004-05 83
|
| adam_txt |
Foreword vii
Preface viii
I Overview I
Dominique Desruelle and Alfred Schipke
Recent Developments 1
Key Policy Issues 2
Integration and Policy Coordination 5
Moving Forward 7
References 7
II Growth Performance 8
Jose Brambila Maci'as, Guy Meredith, and lvanna Vladkova Hollar
Stylized Facts 8
Growth Accounting 10
Bottlenecks to Productivity Growth 14
Empirical Analysis 16
Conclusions 19
Appendix 2.1. Countries Included in the Sample 21
Appendix 2.2. Fit of the Regression Model for the
Central American Countries 21
References 21
IM Pension Reform 23
Kevin Fletcher and Alfred Schipke
Basic Structures of Public Pension Systems 23
Comparison of Key Parameters 26
Special Regimes 32
Recent Reform Developments 32
Pension Reform and Development of Local Capital Markets 33
Reform Options 34
Conclusions 37
Appendix 3.1. Country-by-Country Descriptions of Recent Reforms 38
References 41
IV Assessing Sovereign Debt Structures 43
Andre Faria and Guillermo Tolosa
Analysis of Sovereign Debt Structure in the
Context of a Balance Sheet Approach 43
Sovereign Debt Across Countries and Over Time 44
Determinants of Debt Structure 49
Closer Look at Vulnerabilities 53
Conclusions 56
References 57
V. Financial Sector Development: Public Debt Markets 60
HemantShah
Financial Sector in Central America 61
Organization of Public Debt Management 62
Dual Sovereign Issuers: Government and the Central Bank 63
Primary Issuance of Public Debt 65
Secondary Markets 70
Investor Universe, and Regulation of Investments in Public Debt 71
The Challenge of Creating a Regional Market 72
Key Problems and Recommendations 73
Conclusions 76
VI. Characterizing Monetary Policy 77
Luis I. Jäcome H. and Eric Parrado
Institutional Framework for Monetary Policy 77
A Snapshot of Monetary Policy Formulation and Execution 84
Empirical Regularities Supporting the Characterization of
Monetary Policy 87
Conclusions 91
Appendix 6.1. Policy Reaction Function 93
References 100
Boxes
2.1. Growth Accounting Framework 11
4.1. Measures of Currency Mismatch Risk 48
Tables
1.1. Central America: Real GDP Growth 2
1.2. Central America: Regional and Bilateral Free Trade Agreements 6
2.1. Central America: Long-Term Real GDP Growth by Country 9
2.2. Growth Accounting Across Regions, 1960-2003 11
2.3. Ranking ofEase ofDoing Business 16
2.4. Cross-Country Growth Regressions 17
2.5. Fixed-Effects Panel Regressions 18
2.6. Scores of Institutional Quality 19
2.7. Estimated Impact on Growth oflmproving Institutions 19
2A1. Actual and Predicted Growth, Cross-Sectional Regressions,
1995-2003 21
3.1. Main Characteristics of Mandatory Public Old Age
Pension Systems 24
3.2. Defined-Benefit Systems: Average and Minimum
Old Age Pensions 28
3.3. Defined-Benefit Systems: Balances and Reserves, 2004 29
3.4. Projected Population Aging 29
3.5. Defined-Benefit Systems: Real Internal Rates of
Return on Contributions 30
3.6. Replacement Rates under Different Rates of
Return in First-Pillar, Defined-Contribution Systems 31
3.7. Administrative Costs in Defined-Benefit Systems 32
4.1. Domestie Debt Share Determinants 51
4.2. Elasticity of Ratio of Dcbt to GDP vis-ä-vis the
Real Exchange Rate 54
4.3. Elasticity of the Sovereign's Leverage Ratio vis-ä-vis the
Real Exchange Rate 55
4.4. Ratio ot" Short-Term Debt to Reserves 56
5.1. Structure ot Financial System 62
5.2. Securities Issued by the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank 67
5.3. Auction Mechanisms for Public Debt Securities 68
5.4. Secondary Trading of Fixed-lncome Dornestic Securities 71
6.1. Breakdown of Index of Legal Central Bank Independence:
Central America versus South America and Mexico 82
6.2. Taxonomy of Monetary Policy Strategies 84
6.3. Volatilities of Selected Macroeconomic Variables. 2000-05 86
6.4. Interest Rate Reaction Function of Central Banks. 1996-2005 89
6.5. Exchange Rate Crawl Reaction Function. 1996-2005 91
6.6. Central Banks' Money Reaction Function. 1996-2005 92
6A.1. Main Provisions of Central Bank Legislation as of 2005 94
6A.2. Main Features of Monetary Policy 97
Figures
1.1. Central America: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators 3
2.1. Poverty Rates. Nationally Defined Poverty Line 8
2.2. Central America: Long-Term Real GDPGrowth 9
2.3. Real Per Capita GDP byCountry 10
2.4. Central America: Growth Accounting 12
2.5. Central America: Per Capita GDP and Total
Factor Productivity 12
2.6. Real Per Capita GDP and Total Factor Productivity by Country 13
2.7. Central America: Real Per Capita GDP 14
2.8. Trade Openness: Total Exports Plus Imports 15
2.9. Exports to the United States 15
2.10. Comparison of Institutional Ratings 18
2A.1. Growth Accounting. by Country 20
3.1. Pension Coverage: Number of Contributors as a
Share of the Labor Force. 2003 26
3.2. Contribution Rates for Mandatory Old Age. Disability.
and Survivor Pensions 27
3.3. Standard Retirement Age and Life Expectancy at Age 60 28
4.1. Composition of Sovereign Debt 45
4.2. Structure ofExternal Debt, 2001-05 46
4.3. Foreign Currency Debt 47
4.4. Short-Term Debt 50
4.5. Domestic Debt: Predicted and Actual 51
4.6a. Domestic Debt and Foreign Currency Dcbt Share 52
4.6b. Inflation History and Foreign Currency Debt 53
4.7. Short-Term Share and Total Debt 54
4.8. Sovereign Debt 55
4.9. Debt with Variable Interest Rate. 2005 56
4.10. VolatilityofRevenue Growth. 1990-2005 57
5.1. Domestic Central Bank Debt/Domestie Government Debt. 2005 64
5.2. Potential Debt Auctions Per Year 69
5.3. Actual Debt Auctions Per Year 70
6.1. Inflation in Central America and the Western Hemisphere 78
6.2. Inflation in Central America, the Western Hemisphere.
and Industrialized Countries 78
6.3. Legal Central Bank Independence before and after Reform 81
6.4. Legal Central Bank Independence, All Latin America 81
6.5. Central Bank Reform and Inflation in Central America 82
6.6. Inflation and Legal Central Bank Independence in
Latin America, 2000-03 83
6.7. Inflation and Legal Central Bank Independence in
Latin America, 2004-05 83 |
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| geographic | Zentralamerika swd Amérique centrale Conditions économiques Amérique centrale Politique économique Central America Economic conditions Central America Economic integration Central America Economic policy |
| geographic_facet | Zentralamerika Amérique centrale Conditions économiques Amérique centrale Politique économique Central America Economic conditions Central America Economic integration Central America Economic policy |
| id | DE-604.BV022622628 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T18:20:43Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:01:53Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781589066168 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015828675 |
| oclc_num | 255950602 |
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| owner_facet | DE-20 |
| physical | VIII, 102 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| publishDateSearch | 2007 |
| publishDateSort | 2007 |
| publisher | Internat. Monetary Fund |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund |
| spelling | Economic growth and integration in Central America ed. by Dominique Desruelle ... Washington, DC Internat. Monetary Fund 2007 VIII, 102 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund 257 How to entrench hard-won gains, increase resilience to shocks, and improve growth performance to reduce poverty? As Central America moves forward in regaining macroeconomic stability, these are the challenges. This study analyzes Central America's real, fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policies at the regional level, starting with a review of growth performance and the macroeconomic implications of remittances. It then looks at the sustainability of pension systems, financial system development, sovereign debt vulnerabilities, and ways to sustain progress in reducing inflation by strengthening the credibility of central banks.--Publisher's description. Wirtschaftswachstum Zentralamerika Sammelwerk / Collection of articles of several authors - 39 Schuldenerlass swd Wirtschaftswachstum / Wirtschaftspolitik / Mittelamerika Öffentliche Schulden swd Wirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Debts, Public Central America Dettes publiques Amérique centrale Zentralamerika swd Amérique centrale Conditions économiques Amérique centrale Politique économique Central America Economic conditions Central America Economic integration Central America Economic policy Desruelle, Dominique Sonstige oth International Monetary Fund Occasional paper 257 (DE-604)BV002597241 257 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015828675&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Economic growth and integration in Central America Wirtschaftswachstum Zentralamerika Sammelwerk / Collection of articles of several authors - 39 Schuldenerlass swd Wirtschaftswachstum / Wirtschaftspolitik / Mittelamerika Öffentliche Schulden swd Wirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Debts, Public Central America Dettes publiques Amérique centrale |
| title | Economic growth and integration in Central America |
| title_auth | Economic growth and integration in Central America |
| title_exact_search | Economic growth and integration in Central America |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Economic growth and integration in Central America |
| title_full | Economic growth and integration in Central America ed. by Dominique Desruelle ... |
| title_fullStr | Economic growth and integration in Central America ed. by Dominique Desruelle ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic growth and integration in Central America ed. by Dominique Desruelle ... |
| title_short | Economic growth and integration in Central America |
| title_sort | economic growth and integration in central america |
| topic | Wirtschaftswachstum Zentralamerika Sammelwerk / Collection of articles of several authors - 39 Schuldenerlass swd Wirtschaftswachstum / Wirtschaftspolitik / Mittelamerika Öffentliche Schulden swd Wirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Debts, Public Central America Dettes publiques Amérique centrale |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaftswachstum Zentralamerika Sammelwerk / Collection of articles of several authors - 39 Schuldenerlass Wirtschaftswachstum / Wirtschaftspolitik / Mittelamerika Öffentliche Schulden Wirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Debts, Public Central America Dettes publiques Amérique centrale Amérique centrale Conditions économiques Amérique centrale Politique économique Central America Economic conditions Central America Economic integration Central America Economic policy |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015828675&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002597241 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT desruelledominique economicgrowthandintegrationincentralamerica |