Scientific reasoning: the Bayesian approach
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Chicago [u.a.]
Open Court
2006
|
| Ausgabe: | 3. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Table of contents Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext |
| Beschreibung: | XIII, 327 S. 23 cm |
| ISBN: | 9780812695786 081269578X |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Scientific reasoning |b the Bayesian approach |c Colin Howson and Peter Urbach |
| 250 | |a 3. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Chicago [u.a.] |b Open Court |c 2006 | |
| 300 | |a XIII, 327 S. |c 23 cm | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a Science |x Philosophy | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Reasoning | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Bayesian statistical decision theory | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804136778108502016 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Scientífic
probability. This Bayesian view
first proved by Thomas
experienced a huge upsurge of interest among statisticians, scientists, and philosophers,
and is fast becoming the new methodological paradigm.
Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach explains, in an accessible style, those
elements of the probability calculus that are relevant to Bayesian methods, and argues
that the probability calculus is best regarded as a species of logic.
Howson and Urbach contrast the Bayesian with the classical view that was so influ¬
ential in the last century, and demonstrate that familiar classical procedures for evaluat¬
ing statistical hypotheses, such as significance tests, point estimation, confidence inter¬
vals, and other techniques, provide an utterly false basis for scientific inference. They
also expose the well-known non-probabilistic philosophies of Popper,
as similarly unscientific.
Scientific Reasoning shows how Bayesian theory, by contrast with these increasingly dis¬
credited approaches, provides a unified and highly satisfactory account of scientific method,
an account which practicing scientists and all those interested in the sciences ought to master.
Contents
Preface
1
l.a The Problem of Induction
l.b Popper on the Problem of Induction
l.c Scientific Method in Practice
I.d Probabilistic Induction: The Bayesian
Approach
l.e The Objectivity Ideal
l.f The Plan of This Book
2
2.a The Axioms
2.b Useful Theorems of the Calculus
2.C Discussion
2,d Countable Additivity
2.e Random Variables
2.f Distributions
2.g Probability Densities
2.h Expected Values
2Л
vi
2.
2.k Conditional Distributions
2.1
2.m The Binomial Distribution
2.П
3
З.а
3.b Measuring Uncertainty
3.C Utilities and Probabilities
3.d Consistency
3.e The Axioms
3.f The Principal Principle
3.g Bayesian Probability and Inductive
Scepticism
3.h Updating Rules
3.i The Cox-Good Argument
3.j Exchangeability
4
Deterministic Theories
4.
4.
4.C The Probability of the Evidence
4.d The Ravens Paradox
4.e The Duhem Problem
4.
Good to be True
CONTENTS
4„g Ad
118
4.
127
4.î Under-Determination
Probabilities
128
4.j Conclusion
130
5
Significance Tests and Estimation
5-а
5.b Fisherian Significance Tests
5.C Neyman-Pearson Significance Tests
5.d Significance and Inductive
Significance
5.e Testing Composite Hypotheses
5.f Classical Estimation Theory
5X1
5.f.2 Interval Estimation
5.g Sampling
5.h Conclusion
Ó
Clinical Trials
6.а
6.b Control and Randomization
6.C Significance-Test Defences of
Randomization
6.d The Eliminative-Induction Defence of
Randomization
Vlil
CONTENTS
6.е
Sequential Clinical Trials
197
6.f
Practical and Ethical Considerations
202
6.g
Conclusion
203
7
7.a Simple Linear Regression
7.b The Method of Least Squares
7.C Why Least Squares?
7.d Prediction
7.e Examining the Form of a Regression
7.f Conclusion
8
Statistical Theories
8-а
8.b The Principle of Stable Estimation
8.C Describing the Evidence
8.d Sampling
8-е
8.f Conclusion
9
9,a The Charge of Subjectivism
9.a.l The Principle of Indifference
9.a.2
9.a.3 Informationlessness
9.3.4
9.b Summary
CONTENTS ix
9.C
9.d Conclusion
Bibliography
Index
|
| adam_txt |
Scientífic
probability. This Bayesian view
first proved by Thomas
experienced a huge upsurge of interest among statisticians, scientists, and philosophers,
and is fast becoming the new methodological paradigm.
Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach explains, in an accessible style, those
elements of the probability calculus that are relevant to Bayesian methods, and argues
that the probability calculus is best regarded as a species of logic.
Howson and Urbach contrast the Bayesian with the 'classical' view that was so influ¬
ential in the last century, and demonstrate that familiar classical procedures for evaluat¬
ing statistical hypotheses, such as significance tests, point estimation, confidence inter¬
vals, and other techniques, provide an utterly false basis for scientific inference. They
also expose the well-known non-probabilistic philosophies of Popper,
as similarly unscientific.
Scientific Reasoning shows how Bayesian theory, by contrast with these increasingly dis¬
credited approaches, provides a unified and highly satisfactory account of scientific method,
an account which practicing scientists and all those interested in the sciences ought to master.
Contents
Preface
1
l.a The Problem of Induction
l.b Popper on the Problem of Induction
l.c Scientific Method in Practice
I.d Probabilistic Induction: The Bayesian
Approach
l.e The Objectivity Ideal
l.f The Plan of This Book
2
2.a The Axioms
2.b Useful Theorems of the Calculus
2.C Discussion
2,d Countable Additivity
2.e Random Variables
2.f Distributions
2.g Probability Densities
2.h Expected Values
2Л
vi
2.
2.k Conditional Distributions
2.1
2.m The Binomial Distribution
2.П
3
З.а
3.b Measuring Uncertainty
3.C Utilities and Probabilities
3.d Consistency
3.e The Axioms
3.f The Principal Principle
3.g Bayesian Probability and Inductive
Scepticism
3.h Updating Rules
3.i The Cox-Good Argument
3.j Exchangeability
4
Deterministic Theories
4.
4.
4.C The Probability of the Evidence
4.d The Ravens Paradox
4.e The Duhem Problem
4.
Good to be True
CONTENTS
4„g Ad
118
4.
127
4.î Under-Determination
Probabilities
128
4.j Conclusion
130
5
Significance Tests and Estimation
5-а
5.b Fisherian Significance Tests
5.C Neyman-Pearson Significance Tests
5.d Significance and Inductive
Significance
5.e Testing Composite Hypotheses
5.f Classical Estimation Theory
5X1
5.f.2 Interval Estimation
5.g Sampling
5.h Conclusion
Ó
Clinical Trials
6.а
6.b Control and Randomization
6.C Significance-Test Defences of
Randomization
6.d The Eliminative-Induction Defence of
Randomization
Vlil
CONTENTS
6.е
Sequential Clinical Trials
197
6.f
Practical and Ethical Considerations
202
6.g
Conclusion
203
7
7.a Simple Linear Regression
7.b The Method of Least Squares
7.C Why Least Squares?
7.d Prediction
7.e Examining the Form of a Regression
7.f Conclusion
8
Statistical Theories
8-а
8.b The Principle of Stable Estimation
8.C Describing the Evidence
8.d Sampling
8-е
8.f Conclusion
9
9,a The Charge of Subjectivism
9.a.l The Principle of Indifference
9.a.2
9.a.3 Informationlessness
9.3.4
9.b Summary
CONTENTS ix
9.C
9.d Conclusion
Bibliography
Index |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Howson, Colin 1945-2020 Urbach, Peter |
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| bvnumber | BV022618976 |
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| callnumber-subject | Q - General Science |
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| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)61448170 (DE-599)BVBBV022618976 |
| dewey-full | 501 |
| dewey-hundreds | 500 - Natural sciences and mathematics |
| dewey-ones | 501 - Philosophy and theory |
| dewey-raw | 501 |
| dewey-search | 501 |
| dewey-sort | 3501 |
| dewey-tens | 500 - Natural sciences and mathematics |
| discipline | Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft Soziologie Mathematik Philosophie |
| discipline_str_mv | Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft Soziologie Mathematik Philosophie |
| edition | 3. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV022618976 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T18:19:23Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:01:48Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780812695786 081269578X |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2005024868 |
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| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-188 DE-83 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG |
| owner_facet | DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-188 DE-83 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG |
| physical | XIII, 327 S. 23 cm |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publishDateSearch | 2006 |
| publishDateSort | 2006 |
| publisher | Open Court |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Howson, Colin 1945-2020 Verfasser (DE-588)1017699038 aut Scientific reasoning the Bayesian approach Colin Howson and Peter Urbach 3. ed. Chicago [u.a.] Open Court 2006 XIII, 327 S. 23 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Methode van Bayes gtt Raisonnement Sciences - Méthodologie Sciences - Philosophie Statistique bayésienne Naturwissenschaft Philosophie Science Philosophy Reasoning Bayesian statistical decision theory Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd rswk-swf Wissenschaftstheorie (DE-588)4117665-0 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd rswk-swf Bayes-Verfahren (DE-588)4204326-8 gnd rswk-swf Wissenschaft (DE-588)4066562-8 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s Bayes-Verfahren (DE-588)4204326-8 s Wissenschaftstheorie (DE-588)4117665-0 s DE-604 Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 s Wissenschaft (DE-588)4066562-8 s Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 s 1\p DE-604 2\p DE-604 Urbach, Peter Verfasser aut http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0518/2005024868.html Table of contents Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015825067&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015825067&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Howson, Colin 1945-2020 Urbach, Peter Scientific reasoning the Bayesian approach Methode van Bayes gtt Raisonnement Sciences - Méthodologie Sciences - Philosophie Statistique bayésienne Naturwissenschaft Philosophie Science Philosophy Reasoning Bayesian statistical decision theory Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Wissenschaftstheorie (DE-588)4117665-0 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd Bayes-Verfahren (DE-588)4204326-8 gnd Wissenschaft (DE-588)4066562-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4144220-9 (DE-588)4117665-0 (DE-588)4138606-1 (DE-588)4038971-6 (DE-588)4204326-8 (DE-588)4066562-8 |
| title | Scientific reasoning the Bayesian approach |
| title_auth | Scientific reasoning the Bayesian approach |
| title_exact_search | Scientific reasoning the Bayesian approach |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Scientific reasoning the Bayesian approach |
| title_full | Scientific reasoning the Bayesian approach Colin Howson and Peter Urbach |
| title_fullStr | Scientific reasoning the Bayesian approach Colin Howson and Peter Urbach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scientific reasoning the Bayesian approach Colin Howson and Peter Urbach |
| title_short | Scientific reasoning |
| title_sort | scientific reasoning the bayesian approach |
| title_sub | the Bayesian approach |
| topic | Methode van Bayes gtt Raisonnement Sciences - Méthodologie Sciences - Philosophie Statistique bayésienne Naturwissenschaft Philosophie Science Philosophy Reasoning Bayesian statistical decision theory Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Wissenschaftstheorie (DE-588)4117665-0 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd Bayes-Verfahren (DE-588)4204326-8 gnd Wissenschaft (DE-588)4066562-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Methode van Bayes Raisonnement Sciences - Méthodologie Sciences - Philosophie Statistique bayésienne Naturwissenschaft Philosophie Science Philosophy Reasoning Bayesian statistical decision theory Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie Wissenschaftstheorie Entscheidungstheorie Methode Bayes-Verfahren Wissenschaft |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0518/2005024868.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015825067&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015825067&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT howsoncolin scientificreasoningthebayesianapproach AT urbachpeter scientificreasoningthebayesianapproach |