Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, DC
Center for Global Development
2007
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Table of contents only Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Physical Description: | XV, 186 S. |
| ISBN: | 9780881324037 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Global warming and agriculture |b impact estimates by country |c William R. Cline |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, DC |b Center for Global Development |c 2007 | |
| 300 | |a XV, 186 S. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 650 | 7 | |a Gevolgen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Landbouw |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Umwelt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Global warming |x Environmental aspects | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Plants |x Effect of global warming on | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Crops and climate | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xv
1 Introduction and Overview 1
Main Features of the Book 3
Plan of the Book 3
2 Brief Survey of Existing Literature 7
3 Key Issues: Carbon Fertilization, Irrigation, and Trade 23
Carbon Fertilization 23
The Irrigation Question 26
Trade as Moderator? 32
4 Country-Level Climate Projections 35
The Climate Models 35
Country-Level Climate Results: Present Day and for 2070-99 37
5 Country-Level Agricultural Impact Estimates 43
Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Agricultural Response Functions 43
Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Estimates for the United States 46
Ricardian Estimates for Developing Countries and Canada 47
Sensitivity to Climate Models 59
Rosenzweig et al. Crop Model Results 61
Synthesis of Preferred Estimates 63
Comparison to Estimates in the Model-Source Studies 80
6 Dynamic Considerations 87
7 Conclusion 95
Appendix A Standardizing Global Grids of Climate Change Data 101
Appendix B Mapping Grid Cells to Countries 105
AppendixC Calculating the Geographical Area of the Grid Cell 109
Appendix D Definitions of Countries, Regions, and Subzones 111
Appendix E Estimating Farm Area and Agricultural Output
by Country, Region, and Subzone 115
Appendix F Country-Level Results with the Mendelsohn-Schlesinger
Functions 123
Appendix G Ricardian Models for India, Africa, and Latin America 137
Appendix H Monthly Climate Data, 1961-90 and 2070-99 141
Appendix I Dispersion of Climate Projections Across General
Circulation Models 163
References 169
Glossary 175
Index 179
Tables
Table 4.1 General circulation models used for scenarios 36
Table 4.2 Present and future climate: Average temperature
and precipitation 38
Table 4.3 Global land-based climate averages and changes,
1961-90 to 2070-99 42
Table 5.1 Impact of baseline global warming by the 2080s on
US agricultural potential using the Mendelsohn-
Schlesinger functions (without carbon fertilization) 47
Table 5.2 Impact of global warming by the 2080s on Indian
agricultural productivity using the Mendelsohn-
Dinar-Sanghi model 50
Table 5.3
Table 5.4
Table 5.5
Table 5.6
Table 5.7
Table 5.8
Table 5.9
Table 5.10
Table 6.1
Table 6.2
Table 6.3
Table 7.1
Table D.l
Table E.l
Table El
Table F.2
Table G.l
Table G.2
Table G.3
Table H.l
Table H.2
Table H.3
Table H.4
Table 1.1
Impact of climate change by the 2080s on African
agriculture, World Bank Ricardian models
(without carbon fertilization) 51
Weighted average impact of global warming by
the 2080s on African agriculture 54
Impact of global warming by the 2080s on
agricultural potential in major Latin American
countries (without carbon fertilization),
World Bank studies 57
Dispersion of Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Ricardian
model estimates across climate models
(without carbon fertilization) 60
Rosenzweig-Iglesias agricultural impact estimates
for the 2080s, four major grains and oilseeds 64
Preferred estimates of impact of baseline global
warming by the 2080s on world agriculture 67
Change in agricultural capacity by regional aggregates 77
Agricultural impact by major regions: Developing
and industrial countries 79
Production of four major crops, by major producers
and world, 2001-04 annual average 90
Average annual increase in yields per hectare 92
Meat consumption per capita 93
Summary estimates for impact of global warming
on world agricultural output potential by the 2080s 96
Subzones of largest countries 112
Estimated land area, farm area, and agricultural
output by country, region, and subzone 119
Impact of climate change by 2070-99 on agricultural
output: Mendelsohn-Schlesinger reduced form
model 125
Impact of climate change by 2070-99 on agriculture:
Mendelsohn-Schlesinger cross-section Ricardian
model 130
Ricardian model for India 138
Ricardian models for Africa 139
Ricardian functions for Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
and Ecuador 140
Average temperature, January-June 142
Average temperature, July-December 147
Average precipitation, January-June 152
Average precipitation, July-December 157
Coefficient of variation for future climate projections
of six models 165
vit
Figures
Figure 3.1a Irrigation and temperature for US states 28
Figure 3.1b Irrigation and precipitation for US states 28
Figure 5.1 Iso-production curves for the Mendelsohn-Schlesinger
reduced form function 44
Figure 5.2 Impact on agricultural productivity without carbon
fertilization 74
Figure 5.3 Impact on agricultural productivity with carbon
fertilization 75
Figure 5.4 Percent change in agricultural capacity by the 2080s
in 47 countries and regions (without carbon
fertilization) 76
Figure 6.1 Income elasticity of demand for food, tobacco,
and beverages and purchasing power parity
income per capita 88
Box
Box D.I Multicountry regions 113
viii
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xv
1 Introduction and Overview 1
Main Features of the Book 3
Plan of the Book 3
2 Brief Survey of Existing Literature 7
3 Key Issues: Carbon Fertilization, Irrigation, and Trade 23
Carbon Fertilization 23
The Irrigation Question 26
Trade as Moderator? 32
4 Country-Level Climate Projections 35
The Climate Models 35
Country-Level Climate Results: Present Day and for 2070-99 37
5 Country-Level Agricultural Impact Estimates 43
Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Agricultural Response Functions 43
Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Estimates for the United States 46
Ricardian Estimates for Developing Countries and Canada 47
Sensitivity to Climate Models 59
Rosenzweig et al. Crop Model Results 61
Synthesis of Preferred Estimates 63
Comparison to Estimates in the Model-Source Studies 80
6 Dynamic Considerations 87
7 Conclusion 95
Appendix A Standardizing Global Grids of Climate Change Data 101
Appendix B Mapping Grid Cells to Countries 105
AppendixC Calculating the Geographical Area of the Grid Cell 109
Appendix D Definitions of Countries, Regions, and Subzones 111
Appendix E Estimating Farm Area and Agricultural Output
by Country, Region, and Subzone 115
Appendix F Country-Level Results with the Mendelsohn-Schlesinger
Functions 123
Appendix G Ricardian Models for India, Africa, and Latin America 137
Appendix H Monthly Climate Data, 1961-90 and 2070-99 141
Appendix I Dispersion of Climate Projections Across General
Circulation Models 163
References 169
Glossary 175
Index 179
Tables
Table 4.1 General circulation models used for scenarios 36
Table 4.2 Present and future climate: Average temperature
and precipitation 38
Table 4.3 Global land-based climate averages and changes,
1961-90 to 2070-99 42
Table 5.1 Impact of baseline global warming by the 2080s on
US agricultural potential using the Mendelsohn-
Schlesinger functions (without carbon fertilization) 47
Table 5.2 Impact of global warming by the 2080s on Indian
agricultural productivity using the Mendelsohn-
Dinar-Sanghi model 50
Table 5.3
Table 5.4
Table 5.5
Table 5.6
Table 5.7
Table 5.8
Table 5.9
Table 5.10
Table 6.1
Table 6.2
Table 6.3
Table 7.1
Table D.l
Table E.l
Table El
Table F.2
Table G.l
Table G.2
Table G.3
Table H.l
Table H.2
Table H.3
Table H.4
Table 1.1
Impact of climate change by the 2080s on African
agriculture, World Bank Ricardian models
(without carbon fertilization) 51
Weighted average impact of global warming by
the 2080s on African agriculture 54
Impact of global warming by the 2080s on
agricultural potential in major Latin American
countries (without carbon fertilization),
World Bank studies 57
Dispersion of Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Ricardian
model estimates across climate models
(without carbon fertilization) 60
Rosenzweig-Iglesias agricultural impact estimates
for the 2080s, four major grains and oilseeds 64
Preferred estimates of impact of baseline global
warming by the 2080s on world agriculture 67
Change in agricultural capacity by regional aggregates 77
Agricultural impact by major regions: Developing
and industrial countries 79
Production of four major crops, by major producers
and world, 2001-04 annual average 90
Average annual increase in yields per hectare 92
Meat consumption per capita 93
Summary estimates for impact of global warming
on world agricultural output potential by the 2080s 96
Subzones of largest countries 112
Estimated land area, farm area, and agricultural
output by country, region, and subzone 119
Impact of climate change by 2070-99 on agricultural
output: Mendelsohn-Schlesinger reduced form
model 125
Impact of climate change by 2070-99 on agriculture:
Mendelsohn-Schlesinger cross-section Ricardian
model 130
Ricardian model for India 138
Ricardian models for Africa 139
Ricardian functions for Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
and Ecuador 140
Average temperature, January-June 142
Average temperature, July-December 147
Average precipitation, January-June 152
Average precipitation, July-December 157
Coefficient of variation for future climate projections
of six models 165
vit
Figures
Figure 3.1a Irrigation and temperature for US states 28
Figure 3.1b Irrigation and precipitation for US states 28
Figure 5.1 Iso-production curves for the Mendelsohn-Schlesinger
reduced form function 44
Figure 5.2 Impact on agricultural productivity without carbon
fertilization 74
Figure 5.3 Impact on agricultural productivity with carbon
fertilization 75
Figure 5.4 Percent change in agricultural capacity by the 2080s
in 47 countries and regions (without carbon
fertilization) 76
Figure 6.1 Income elasticity of demand for food, tobacco,
and beverages and purchasing power parity
income per capita 88
Box
Box D.I Multicountry regions 113
viii |
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| author | Cline, William R. 1941- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)132068362 |
| author_facet | Cline, William R. 1941- |
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| bvnumber | BV022548294 |
| callnumber-first | S - Agriculture |
| callnumber-label | S600 |
| callnumber-raw | S600.7.G56 |
| callnumber-search | S600.7.G56 |
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| callnumber-subject | S - General Agriculture |
| classification_rvk | QS 000 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)132581890 (DE-599)DNB 2007018892 |
| dewey-full | 338.1/4 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 338 - Production |
| dewey-raw | 338.1/4 |
| dewey-search | 338.1/4 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.1 14 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| id | DE-604.BV022548294 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T18:12:38Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:00:00Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780881324037 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2007018892 |
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| physical | XV, 186 S. |
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| publisher | Center for Global Development |
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| spelling | Cline, William R. 1941- Verfasser (DE-588)132068362 aut Global warming and agriculture impact estimates by country William R. Cline Washington, DC Center for Global Development 2007 XV, 186 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Broeikaseffect gtt Gevolgen gtt Landbouw gtt Umwelt Global warming Environmental aspects Plants Effect of global warming on Crops and climate Internationaler Vergleich (DE-588)4120509-1 gnd rswk-swf Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 gnd rswk-swf Anthropogene Klimaänderung (DE-588)4290733-0 gnd rswk-swf Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 gnd rswk-swf Anthropogene Klimaänderung (DE-588)4290733-0 s Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 s Internationaler Vergleich (DE-588)4120509-1 s DE-604 Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 s DE-188 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0718/2007018892.html Table of contents only HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015754634&sequence=000006&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Cline, William R. 1941- Global warming and agriculture impact estimates by country Broeikaseffect gtt Gevolgen gtt Landbouw gtt Umwelt Global warming Environmental aspects Plants Effect of global warming on Crops and climate Internationaler Vergleich (DE-588)4120509-1 gnd Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 gnd Anthropogene Klimaänderung (DE-588)4290733-0 gnd Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4120509-1 (DE-588)4034402-2 (DE-588)4290733-0 (DE-588)4344515-9 |
| title | Global warming and agriculture impact estimates by country |
| title_auth | Global warming and agriculture impact estimates by country |
| title_exact_search | Global warming and agriculture impact estimates by country |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Global warming and agriculture impact estimates by country |
| title_full | Global warming and agriculture impact estimates by country William R. Cline |
| title_fullStr | Global warming and agriculture impact estimates by country William R. Cline |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global warming and agriculture impact estimates by country William R. Cline |
| title_short | Global warming and agriculture |
| title_sort | global warming and agriculture impact estimates by country |
| title_sub | impact estimates by country |
| topic | Broeikaseffect gtt Gevolgen gtt Landbouw gtt Umwelt Global warming Environmental aspects Plants Effect of global warming on Crops and climate Internationaler Vergleich (DE-588)4120509-1 gnd Landwirtschaft (DE-588)4034402-2 gnd Anthropogene Klimaänderung (DE-588)4290733-0 gnd Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Broeikaseffect Gevolgen Landbouw Umwelt Global warming Environmental aspects Plants Effect of global warming on Crops and climate Internationaler Vergleich Landwirtschaft Anthropogene Klimaänderung Erwärmung Meteorologie |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0718/2007018892.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015754634&sequence=000006&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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