Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability: an analysis of recent cross-country experience
"In the difficult circumstances where a sovereign debt restructuring becomes unavoidable, restoring the country's debt to a sustainable path is key to ensuring a credible and durable exit from the crisis. In recent years, a number of countries -- including Argentina, the Dominican Reputlic...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C.
International Monetary Fund
2007
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund
255 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | "In the difficult circumstances where a sovereign debt restructuring becomes unavoidable, restoring the country's debt to a sustainable path is key to ensuring a credible and durable exit from the crisis. In recent years, a number of countries -- including Argentina, the Dominican Reputlic, Ecuador, Moldova, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, and Uruguay -- have had to restructure their sovereign liabilities, either following a default, or preemptively to avoid a default. This study takes stock of these countries' experiences with debt-restructuring operations, with a view to assessing the outcomes and whether debt sustainability has been restored. The emphasis of the study is on sovereign debt owed to private creditors, and the analysis is based on information available as of late 2005..." -- preface, v. |
| Beschreibung: | V,37 S. |
| ISBN: | 9781589066106 |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund |v 255 | |
| 520 | 3 | |a "In the difficult circumstances where a sovereign debt restructuring becomes unavoidable, restoring the country's debt to a sustainable path is key to ensuring a credible and durable exit from the crisis. In recent years, a number of countries -- including Argentina, the Dominican Reputlic, Ecuador, Moldova, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, and Uruguay -- have had to restructure their sovereign liabilities, either following a default, or preemptively to avoid a default. This study takes stock of these countries' experiences with debt-restructuring operations, with a view to assessing the outcomes and whether debt sustainability has been restored. The emphasis of the study is on sovereign debt owed to private creditors, and the analysis is based on information available as of late 2005..." -- preface, v. | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Crises financières - Nouveaux pays industrialisés | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Crises financières - Pays en voie de développement | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Entwicklungsländer | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Debt relief |z Developing countries | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Preface v
I Overview I
II Cross Country Experience with Recent Sovereign Debt
Restructurings 2
Initial Conditions 2
The Scope and Outcome of Sovereign Debt Restructuring with the
Private Sector 5
Debt Dynamics Around the Time of Restructuring 9
III Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Debt Sustainability 13
Criteria for Assessing Debt Sustainability 13
The Current Debt Level and Related Vulnerabilities 14
Vulnerabilities Stemming from Liquidity Needs 16
Medium Term Debt Related Vulnerabilities 17
Summary for the Eight Countries 23
IV Conclusions 26
Appendixes
I. TheRoleofthelMF 27
II. Outcomes of Recent Restructurings 30
III. Debt Decompositions in the Post Restructuring Phase 32
IV. Public Debt Ratios and Probabilities of Debt Crises 35
Boxes
1. Debt Crises and the Level of Debt 14
2. An Early Warning System Approach 18
3. The IMF s Methodology for Debt Sustainability Analysis in
Middle Income Countries 19
Tables
1. Public Debt in Recent Cases of Sovereign Debt Restructuring 3
2. Summary: Scope of Debt Restructuring 4
3. Scope of Debt Restructuring 5
4. Recent Paris Club Reschedulings 6
5. Debt Reduction in Net Present Value of Recent Debt Restructurings 7
6. Nominal Principal Reduction in Recent Debt Restructuring Cases 8
7. Results of Debt Restructurings 9
8. Public Debt Ratios, 2004 16
9. Early Warning System Vulnerability Scores 16
10. Liquidity Indicators, 2005 06 17
11. Debt Sustainability Analysis Projections 17
12. Debt Sustainability Indicators 24
Appendix Tables
ALL Fund Arrangements During Recent Sovereign Debt Restructuring
Episodes 28
A3.1. Evolution of Debt to GDP Ratios Since the Crises 33
A4.1. Probit Estimation of Crisis Probability 35
A4.2. Polynomial Fit Through In Sample Forecasts 35
Figures
1. GDP Growth Before and After Crises 10
2. Evolution of Public Debt in Cases of Preemptive Restructuring 11
3. Evolution of Public Debt in Cases of Post Default Restructuring 12
4. Change in Debt to GDP Ratios, Post restructuring Period 12
5. Ukraine: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2003 09 20
6. Pakistan: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2001/02 09/10 20
7. Moldova: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2003 10 21
8. Uruguay: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2003 10 21
9. Dominican Republic: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2002 10 22
10. Ecuador: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2002 10 22
11. Russia: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2003 10 23
12. Argentina: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2003 10 23
13. Sovereign Spreads of Restructured Bonds, 2000 05 25
14. Moody s Sovereign Credit Ratings, 1998 2005 25
Appendix Figures
A3.1. Change in Debt to GDP Ratios, Post restructuring Period 32
A3.2. Contribution of Primary Balance to Change in Debt to GDP Ratio,
Post restructuring Period 34
A3.3. Contribution of Exchange Rate to Change in Debt to GDP Ratio,
Post restructuring Period 34
A3.4. Contribution of Interest Growth Differential to Change in
Debt to GDP Ratio, Post restructuring Period 34
Bibliography 36
|
| adam_txt |
Preface v
I Overview I
II Cross Country Experience with Recent Sovereign Debt
Restructurings 2
Initial Conditions 2
The Scope and Outcome of Sovereign Debt Restructuring with the
Private Sector 5
Debt Dynamics Around the Time of Restructuring 9
III Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Debt Sustainability 13
Criteria for Assessing Debt Sustainability 13
The Current Debt Level and Related Vulnerabilities 14
Vulnerabilities Stemming from Liquidity Needs 16
Medium Term Debt Related Vulnerabilities 17
Summary for the Eight Countries 23
IV Conclusions 26
Appendixes
I. TheRoleofthelMF 27
II. Outcomes of Recent Restructurings 30
III. Debt Decompositions in the Post Restructuring Phase 32
IV. Public Debt Ratios and Probabilities of Debt Crises 35
Boxes
1. Debt Crises and the Level of Debt 14
2. An Early Warning System Approach 18
3. The IMF's Methodology for Debt Sustainability Analysis in
Middle Income Countries 19
Tables
1. Public Debt in Recent Cases of Sovereign Debt Restructuring 3
2. Summary: Scope of Debt Restructuring 4
3. Scope of Debt Restructuring 5
4. Recent Paris Club Reschedulings 6
5. Debt Reduction in Net Present Value of Recent Debt Restructurings 7
6. Nominal Principal Reduction in Recent Debt Restructuring Cases 8
7. Results of Debt Restructurings 9
8. Public Debt Ratios, 2004 16
9. Early Warning System Vulnerability Scores 16
10. Liquidity Indicators, 2005 06 17
11. Debt Sustainability Analysis Projections 17
12. Debt Sustainability Indicators 24
Appendix Tables
ALL Fund Arrangements During Recent Sovereign Debt Restructuring
Episodes 28
A3.1. Evolution of Debt to GDP Ratios Since the Crises 33
A4.1. Probit Estimation of Crisis Probability 35
A4.2. Polynomial Fit Through In Sample Forecasts 35
Figures
1. GDP Growth Before and After Crises 10
2. Evolution of Public Debt in Cases of Preemptive Restructuring 11
3. Evolution of Public Debt in Cases of Post Default Restructuring 12
4. Change in Debt to GDP Ratios, Post restructuring Period 12
5. Ukraine: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2003 09 20
6. Pakistan: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2001/02 09/10 20
7. Moldova: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2003 10 21
8. Uruguay: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2003 10 21
9. Dominican Republic: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2002 10 22
10. Ecuador: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2002 10 22
11. Russia: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2003 10 23
12. Argentina: Debt Sustainability Analysis, 2003 10 23
13. Sovereign Spreads of Restructured Bonds, 2000 05 25
14. Moody's Sovereign Credit Ratings, 1998 2005 25
Appendix Figures
A3.1. Change in Debt to GDP Ratios, Post restructuring Period 32
A3.2. Contribution of Primary Balance to Change in Debt to GDP Ratio,
Post restructuring Period 34
A3.3. Contribution of Exchange Rate to Change in Debt to GDP Ratio,
Post restructuring Period 34
A3.4. Contribution of Interest Growth Differential to Change in
Debt to GDP Ratio, Post restructuring Period 34
Bibliography 36 |
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| spelling | Finger, Harald Verfasser aut Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability an analysis of recent cross-country experience Harald Finger and Mauro Mecagni Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2007 V,37 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund 255 "In the difficult circumstances where a sovereign debt restructuring becomes unavoidable, restoring the country's debt to a sustainable path is key to ensuring a credible and durable exit from the crisis. In recent years, a number of countries -- including Argentina, the Dominican Reputlic, Ecuador, Moldova, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, and Uruguay -- have had to restructure their sovereign liabilities, either following a default, or preemptively to avoid a default. This study takes stock of these countries' experiences with debt-restructuring operations, with a view to assessing the outcomes and whether debt sustainability has been restored. The emphasis of the study is on sovereign debt owed to private creditors, and the analysis is based on information available as of late 2005..." -- preface, v. Crises financières - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Crises financières - Pays en voie de développement Dettes - Allègement - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Dettes - Allègement - Pays en voie de développement Dettes publiques - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Dettes publiques - Pays en voie de développement Financiële crises gtt Schuldsanering gtt Service de la dette - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Service de la dette - Pays en voie de développement Öffentliche Schulden swd Entwicklungsländer Debt relief Developing countries Debt service Developing countries Debts, Public Developing countries Financial crises Developing countries Ontwikkelingslanden gtt Mecagni, Mauro Sonstige oth International Monetary Fund Occasional paper 255 (DE-604)BV002597241 255 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015710535&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Finger, Harald Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability an analysis of recent cross-country experience Crises financières - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Crises financières - Pays en voie de développement Dettes - Allègement - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Dettes - Allègement - Pays en voie de développement Dettes publiques - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Dettes publiques - Pays en voie de développement Financiële crises gtt Schuldsanering gtt Service de la dette - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Service de la dette - Pays en voie de développement Öffentliche Schulden swd Entwicklungsländer Debt relief Developing countries Debt service Developing countries Debts, Public Developing countries Financial crises Developing countries |
| title | Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability an analysis of recent cross-country experience |
| title_auth | Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability an analysis of recent cross-country experience |
| title_exact_search | Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability an analysis of recent cross-country experience |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability an analysis of recent cross-country experience |
| title_full | Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability an analysis of recent cross-country experience Harald Finger and Mauro Mecagni |
| title_fullStr | Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability an analysis of recent cross-country experience Harald Finger and Mauro Mecagni |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability an analysis of recent cross-country experience Harald Finger and Mauro Mecagni |
| title_short | Sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability |
| title_sort | sovereign debt restructuring and debt sustainability an analysis of recent cross country experience |
| title_sub | an analysis of recent cross-country experience |
| topic | Crises financières - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Crises financières - Pays en voie de développement Dettes - Allègement - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Dettes - Allègement - Pays en voie de développement Dettes publiques - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Dettes publiques - Pays en voie de développement Financiële crises gtt Schuldsanering gtt Service de la dette - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Service de la dette - Pays en voie de développement Öffentliche Schulden swd Entwicklungsländer Debt relief Developing countries Debt service Developing countries Debts, Public Developing countries Financial crises Developing countries |
| topic_facet | Crises financières - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Crises financières - Pays en voie de développement Dettes - Allègement - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Dettes - Allègement - Pays en voie de développement Dettes publiques - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Dettes publiques - Pays en voie de développement Financiële crises Schuldsanering Service de la dette - Nouveaux pays industrialisés Service de la dette - Pays en voie de développement Öffentliche Schulden Entwicklungsländer Debt relief Developing countries Debt service Developing countries Debts, Public Developing countries Financial crises Developing countries Ontwikkelingslanden |
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