The macroeconomics of scaling up aid: lessons from recent experience
This study analyzes key issues associated with large increases in aid, including absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, and inflation. The authors develop a framework that emphasizes the different roles of monetary and fiscal policy and apply it to the recent experience of five countries: Ethiopia, Gha...
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, DC
Internat. Monetary Fund
2007
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund
253 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | This study analyzes key issues associated with large increases in aid, including absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, and inflation. The authors develop a framework that emphasizes the different roles of monetary and fiscal policy and apply it to the recent experience of five countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda. These countries have often found it difficult to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy in the face of conflicting objectives, notably to spend the aid money on domestic goods and to avoid excessive exchange rate appreciation. |
| Beschreibung: | VII,103 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9781589065918 |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund |v 253 | |
| 520 | 3 | |a This study analyzes key issues associated with large increases in aid, including absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, and inflation. The authors develop a framework that emphasizes the different roles of monetary and fiscal policy and apply it to the recent experience of five countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda. These countries have often found it difficult to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy in the face of conflicting objectives, notably to spend the aid money on domestic goods and to avoid excessive exchange rate appreciation. | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Aide économique - Afrique - Cas, Études de | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Asistencia económica - Africa - Estudio de casos | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Capacidad absorbente (Economía) - Estudio de casos | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Capacité d'absorption (Économie politique) - Afrique - Cas, Études de | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Dépenses publiques - Politique gouvernementale - Afrique - Cas, Études de | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Entwicklungshilfe |2 swd | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Política de gastos de gobierno - Africa - Estudio de casos | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Wirtschaftshilfe |2 swd | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Öffentliche Investition |2 swd | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Absorptive capacity (Economics) |z Africa |v Case studies | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic assistance |z Africa |v Case studies | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Government spending policy |z Africa |v Case studies | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804136603440906240 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Preface vii
Executive Summary I
I Introduction 3
Andrew Berg, Shekhar Aiyar, and Mumtaz Hussain
Surprising Results 4
Work Program 4
II Conceptual Framework and Its Application to Five Countries 6
Andrew Berg, Shekhar Aiyar, and Mumtaz Hussain
Macroeconomic Framework for Analysis of Increases in Aid Inflows 6
Findings from Country Studies 11
Conclusions and Policy Implications 26
Appendix 2.1. Methodology for Sample Selection 32
Appendix 2.2. Dutch Disease: Theory and Evidence 33
IM Ethiopia 36
Amber Mahone
Pattern of Aid Inflows 36
Exchange Rate, Prices, and Terms of Trade 37
Spending Out of Aid 38
Monetary Policy Response 39
Conclusions 42
IV Ghana 47
Shaun Roache
Pattern of Aid Inflows 47
Was Aid Absorbed? 47
Was Aid Spent? 48
Monetary Policy Response 49
Conclusions 54
V Mozambique 58
Shekhar Aiyar
Pattern of Aid Inflows 58
Aid Absorption 58
Spending Out of Aid 58
Real Exchange Rate and Terms of Trade 59
Monetary Policy Response 60
Conclusions 65
VI Tanzania 67
Mumtaz Hussain
Pattern of Aid Inflows °
Aid Absorption 67
Real Exchange Rate and Dutch Disease 7
Spending Out of Aid 69
Monetary Policy Response ™
Findings and Conclusions 76
VII Uganda 78
Shekhar Aiyar
Pattern of Aid Inflows 78
Real Exchange Rate and Terms of Trade 78
Aid Absorption 79
Spending Out of Aid 80
Monetary Policy Response 82
Conclusions 85
VIII Modeling Aid Inflows in a Small and Open Economy 87
Tokhir Mirzoev
The Model 88
Anatomy of Macroeconomic Adjustment to Aid Inflows 89
Discussion of the Appropriate Policy Response 92
Appendix 8.1. Model Description 95
Appendix 8.2. Solution Method 99
References 101
Boxes
2.1. Absorption, Spending, and Central Bank and Fiscal Accounting 8
2.2. Terms of Trade Shocks and Aid Inflows 17
2.3. Aid, Absorption, and Capital Flows 19
2.4. Aid Volatility and Programs Supported by the
Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility 24
4.1. Ghana: Program Adjustors for Aid Surprises 52
4.2. Ghana: Terms of Trade Shocks and Aid Inflows 54
7.1. Uganda: Terms of Trade Shocks and Aid Inflows 80
Tables
2.1. Patterns of Aid Inflows 12
2.2. GDP Growth, Inflation, and Private Investment 14
2.3. Real Effective Exchange Rate 15
2.4. Balance of Payments Identity 18
2.5. Allocation of Incremental Net Budgetary Aid: Spent or Saved 20
2.6. Domestic Debt and Debt Service Indicators 21
2.7. Policy Response to Aid Surge 26
2.AI. Aid Flows: Changes and Levels 33
2.A2. Net Official Development Assistance 34
3.1. Ethiopia: Aid and Other Inflows 37
3.2. Ethiopia: Trade Indicators 39
3.3. Ethiopia: Terms of Trade Shocks and Aid Inflows 40
3.4. Ethiopia: Was Aid Absorbed? 41
3.5. Ethiopia: Was Aid Spent? 42
3.6. Ethiopia: Year on Year Changes in Absorption and
Spending of Aid Inflows 44
3.7. Ethiopia: Selected Monetary Indicators 44
3.8. Ethiopia: Domestic Debt and Debt Service Indicators 44
3.9. Ethiopia: Investment and Interest Rates 45
4.1. Ghana: Net Aid Inflows and Selected Economic Indicators 48
4.2. Ghana: Aid Shocks 49
4.3. Ghana: Balance of Payments 50
4.4. Ghana: Net Aid Flows and the Fiscal Response 51
4.5. Ghana: Monetary Conditions 56
5.1. Mozambique: Aid and Other Inflows 59
5.2. Mozambique: Was Aid Absorbed? 59
5.3. Mozambique: Was Aid Spent? 60
5.4. Mozambique: Central Government Budgetary Operations 60
5.5. Mozambique: Exchange Rates, Net Exports, and the Terms ofTrade 61
5.6. Mozambique: Selected Macroeconomic Variables 63
5.7. Mozambique: Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
Benchmarks and Performance Criteria, 2000 64
5.8. Mozambique: Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
Benchmarks and Performance Criteria, 2001 64
5.9. Mozambique: Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
Benchmarks and Performance Criteria, 2002 65
5.10. Mozambique: Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
Benchmarks and Performance Criteria, 2003 65
6.1. Tanzania: Aid Flows 68
6.2. Tanzania: Aid Absorption 68
6.3. Tanzania: Real Effective Exchange Rate and Its Components 69
6.4. Tanzania: Allocation of Incremental Net Budgetary Aid Spent
or Saved 71
6.5. Tanzania: Changes in Net Aid Inflows to Budget and
Fiscal Spending 71
6.6. Tanzania: Aid Fluctuations and Domestic Financing of the Budget 72
6.7. Tanzania: Policy Response to Aid Surges 75
7.1. Uganda: Aid and Other Inflows 79
7.2. Uganda: Exchange Rate Movements and the Terms of Trade 79
7.3. Uganda: Was Aid Absorbed? 81
7.4. Uganda: Was Aid Spent? 81
7.5. Uganda: Central Government Budgetary Operations 82
7.6. Uganda: Policy Instruments and Outcomes 84
7.7. Uganda: Macroeconomic Performance Against Poverty Reduction
and Growth Facility Targets 85
Figures
2.1. Total Net Budget Aid 12
2.2. Changes in Composition of Budgetary Aid 13
2.3. Real Effective Exchange Rates and Aid Inflows 16
2.4. Programmed vs. Actual Levels of Fiscal Deficit (Excluding Aid)
and Net Budget Aid 22
2.5. Ethiopia and Ghana: Limited Aid Impact 27
2.6. Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda: Spending Exceeds Absorption 28
3.1. Ethiopia: Programmed vs. Actual Levels of Net Budget Aid 37
3.2. Ethiopia: Exchange Rate and Price Developments 38
3.3. Ethiopia: Exchange Rate and Treasury Bill Rates 43
3.4. Ethiopia: Gross Official Reserves 43
3.5. Ethiopia: Selected Program Targets and Outcomes 45
4.1. Ghana: Aid Flows and Public Expenditure Patterns 51
4.2. Ghana: Performance Against Domestic Financing Targets 53
4.3. Ghana: Exchange Rates, Inflation, and Aid Flows 55
4.4. Ghana: Real Treasury Bill Rates Using Annualized Quarterly
Inflation 56
5.1. Mozambique: Exchange Rate, Money, and Inflation 62
6.1. Tanzania: Monthly Exchange Rates and Consumer Price Inflation 69
6.2. Tanzania: Exports and Real Effective Exchange Rate 70
6.3. Tanzania: Program vs. Actual Growth in Broad Money 73
6.4. Tanzania: Bank Reserves and Treasury Bills/Liquidity Paper
Holdings 74
6.5. Tanzania: Inflation and Reserve Money Growth 76
7.1. Uganda: Exchange Rates and Monetary Indicators 83
8.1. Spend and Don t Absorb, Permanent Shock 90
8.2. Spend and Don t Absorb, Temporary Shock 91
8.3. Absorb and Don t Spend, Permanent Shock 93
8.4. Absorb and Spend, Permanent Shock 94
|
| adam_txt |
Preface vii
Executive Summary I
I Introduction 3
Andrew Berg, Shekhar Aiyar, and Mumtaz Hussain
Surprising Results 4
Work Program 4
II Conceptual Framework and Its Application to Five Countries 6
Andrew Berg, Shekhar Aiyar, and Mumtaz Hussain
Macroeconomic Framework for Analysis of Increases in Aid Inflows 6
Findings from Country Studies 11
Conclusions and Policy Implications 26
Appendix 2.1. Methodology for Sample Selection 32
Appendix 2.2. Dutch Disease: Theory and Evidence 33
IM Ethiopia 36
Amber Mahone
Pattern of Aid Inflows 36
Exchange Rate, Prices, and Terms of Trade 37
Spending Out of Aid 38
Monetary Policy Response 39
Conclusions 42
IV Ghana 47
Shaun Roache
Pattern of Aid Inflows 47
Was Aid Absorbed? 47
Was Aid Spent? 48
Monetary Policy Response 49
Conclusions 54
V Mozambique 58
Shekhar Aiyar
Pattern of Aid Inflows 58
Aid Absorption 58
Spending Out of Aid 58
Real Exchange Rate and Terms of Trade 59
Monetary Policy Response 60
Conclusions 65
VI Tanzania 67
Mumtaz Hussain
Pattern of Aid Inflows °'
Aid Absorption 67
Real Exchange Rate and Dutch Disease "7
Spending Out of Aid 69
Monetary Policy Response ™
Findings and Conclusions 76
VII Uganda 78
Shekhar Aiyar
Pattern of Aid Inflows 78
Real Exchange Rate and Terms of Trade 78
Aid Absorption 79
Spending Out of Aid 80
Monetary Policy Response 82
Conclusions 85
VIII Modeling Aid Inflows in a Small and Open Economy 87
Tokhir Mirzoev
The Model 88
Anatomy of Macroeconomic Adjustment to Aid Inflows 89
Discussion of the Appropriate Policy Response 92
Appendix 8.1. Model Description 95
Appendix 8.2. Solution Method 99
References 101
Boxes
2.1. Absorption, Spending, and Central Bank and Fiscal Accounting 8
2.2. Terms of Trade Shocks and Aid Inflows 17
2.3. Aid, Absorption, and Capital Flows 19
2.4. Aid Volatility and Programs Supported by the
Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility 24
4.1. Ghana: Program Adjustors for Aid Surprises 52
4.2. Ghana: Terms of Trade Shocks and Aid Inflows 54
7.1. Uganda: Terms of Trade Shocks and Aid Inflows 80
Tables
2.1. Patterns of Aid Inflows 12
2.2. GDP Growth, Inflation, and Private Investment 14
2.3. Real Effective Exchange Rate 15
2.4. Balance of Payments Identity 18
2.5. Allocation of Incremental Net Budgetary Aid: Spent or Saved 20
2.6. Domestic Debt and Debt Service Indicators 21
2.7. Policy Response to Aid Surge 26
2.AI. Aid Flows: Changes and Levels 33
2.A2. Net Official Development Assistance 34
3.1. Ethiopia: Aid and Other Inflows 37
3.2. Ethiopia: Trade Indicators 39
3.3. Ethiopia: Terms of Trade Shocks and Aid Inflows 40
3.4. Ethiopia: Was Aid Absorbed? 41
3.5. Ethiopia: Was Aid Spent? 42
3.6. Ethiopia: Year on Year Changes in Absorption and
Spending of Aid Inflows 44
3.7. Ethiopia: Selected Monetary Indicators 44
3.8. Ethiopia: Domestic Debt and Debt Service Indicators 44
3.9. Ethiopia: Investment and Interest Rates 45
4.1. Ghana: Net Aid Inflows and Selected Economic Indicators 48
4.2. Ghana: Aid Shocks 49
4.3. Ghana: Balance of Payments 50
4.4. Ghana: Net Aid Flows and the Fiscal Response 51
4.5. Ghana: Monetary Conditions 56
5.1. Mozambique: Aid and Other Inflows 59
5.2. Mozambique: Was Aid Absorbed? 59
5.3. Mozambique: Was Aid Spent? 60
5.4. Mozambique: Central Government Budgetary Operations 60
5.5. Mozambique: Exchange Rates, Net Exports, and the Terms ofTrade 61
5.6. Mozambique: Selected Macroeconomic Variables 63
5.7. Mozambique: Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
Benchmarks and Performance Criteria, 2000 64
5.8. Mozambique: Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
Benchmarks and Performance Criteria, 2001 64
5.9. Mozambique: Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
Benchmarks and Performance Criteria, 2002 65
5.10. Mozambique: Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
Benchmarks and Performance Criteria, 2003 65
6.1. Tanzania: Aid Flows 68
6.2. Tanzania: Aid Absorption 68
6.3. Tanzania: Real Effective Exchange Rate and Its Components 69
6.4. Tanzania: Allocation of Incremental Net Budgetary Aid Spent
or Saved 71
6.5. Tanzania: Changes in Net Aid Inflows to Budget and
Fiscal Spending 71
6.6. Tanzania: Aid Fluctuations and Domestic Financing of the Budget 72
6.7. Tanzania: Policy Response to Aid Surges 75
7.1. Uganda: Aid and Other Inflows 79
7.2. Uganda: Exchange Rate Movements and the Terms of Trade 79
7.3. Uganda: Was Aid Absorbed? 81
7.4. Uganda: Was Aid Spent? 81
7.5. Uganda: Central Government Budgetary Operations 82
7.6. Uganda: Policy Instruments and Outcomes 84
7.7. Uganda: Macroeconomic Performance Against Poverty Reduction
and Growth Facility Targets 85
Figures
2.1. Total Net Budget Aid 12
2.2. Changes in Composition of Budgetary Aid 13
2.3. Real Effective Exchange Rates and Aid Inflows 16
2.4. Programmed vs. Actual Levels of Fiscal Deficit (Excluding Aid)
and Net Budget Aid 22
2.5. Ethiopia and Ghana: Limited Aid Impact 27
2.6. Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda: Spending Exceeds Absorption 28
3.1. Ethiopia: Programmed vs. Actual Levels of Net Budget Aid 37
3.2. Ethiopia: Exchange Rate and Price Developments 38
3.3. Ethiopia: Exchange Rate and Treasury Bill Rates 43
3.4. Ethiopia: Gross Official Reserves 43
3.5. Ethiopia: Selected Program Targets and Outcomes 45
4.1. Ghana: Aid Flows and Public Expenditure Patterns 51
4.2. Ghana: Performance Against Domestic Financing Targets 53
4.3. Ghana: Exchange Rates, Inflation, and Aid Flows 55
4.4. Ghana: Real Treasury Bill Rates Using Annualized Quarterly
Inflation 56
5.1. Mozambique: Exchange Rate, Money, and Inflation 62
6.1. Tanzania: Monthly Exchange Rates and Consumer Price Inflation 69
6.2. Tanzania: Exports and Real Effective Exchange Rate 70
6.3. Tanzania: Program vs. Actual Growth in Broad Money 73
6.4. Tanzania: Bank Reserves and Treasury Bills/Liquidity Paper
Holdings 74
6.5. Tanzania: Inflation and Reserve Money Growth 76
7.1. Uganda: Exchange Rates and Monetary Indicators 83
8.1. Spend and Don't Absorb, Permanent Shock 90
8.2. Spend and Don't Absorb, Temporary Shock 91
8.3. Absorb and Don't Spend, Permanent Shock 93
8.4. Absorb and Spend, Permanent Shock 94 |
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| index_date | 2024-07-02T17:56:31Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:59:01Z |
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| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund |
| spelling | The macroeconomics of scaling up aid lessons from recent experience Andrew Berg ... Washington, DC Internat. Monetary Fund 2007 VII,103 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund 253 This study analyzes key issues associated with large increases in aid, including absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, and inflation. The authors develop a framework that emphasizes the different roles of monetary and fiscal policy and apply it to the recent experience of five countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda. These countries have often found it difficult to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy in the face of conflicting objectives, notably to spend the aid money on domestic goods and to avoid excessive exchange rate appreciation. Aide économique - Afrique - Cas, Études de Asistencia económica - Africa - Estudio de casos Capacidad absorbente (Economía) - Estudio de casos Capacité d'absorption (Économie politique) - Afrique - Cas, Études de Dépenses publiques - Politique gouvernementale - Afrique - Cas, Études de Entwicklungshilfe swd Política de gastos de gobierno - Africa - Estudio de casos Wirtschaftshilfe swd Öffentliche Investition swd Absorptive capacity (Economics) Africa Case studies Economic assistance Africa Case studies Government spending policy Africa Case studies Afrika swd Afrika (DE-588)4522595-3 Fallstudiensammlung gnd-content Berg, Andrew Sonstige oth International Monetary Fund Occasional paper 253 (DE-604)BV002597241 253 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015710474&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | The macroeconomics of scaling up aid lessons from recent experience Aide économique - Afrique - Cas, Études de Asistencia económica - Africa - Estudio de casos Capacidad absorbente (Economía) - Estudio de casos Capacité d'absorption (Économie politique) - Afrique - Cas, Études de Dépenses publiques - Politique gouvernementale - Afrique - Cas, Études de Entwicklungshilfe swd Política de gastos de gobierno - Africa - Estudio de casos Wirtschaftshilfe swd Öffentliche Investition swd Absorptive capacity (Economics) Africa Case studies Economic assistance Africa Case studies Government spending policy Africa Case studies |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4522595-3 |
| title | The macroeconomics of scaling up aid lessons from recent experience |
| title_auth | The macroeconomics of scaling up aid lessons from recent experience |
| title_exact_search | The macroeconomics of scaling up aid lessons from recent experience |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The macroeconomics of scaling up aid lessons from recent experience |
| title_full | The macroeconomics of scaling up aid lessons from recent experience Andrew Berg ... |
| title_fullStr | The macroeconomics of scaling up aid lessons from recent experience Andrew Berg ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | The macroeconomics of scaling up aid lessons from recent experience Andrew Berg ... |
| title_short | The macroeconomics of scaling up aid |
| title_sort | the macroeconomics of scaling up aid lessons from recent experience |
| title_sub | lessons from recent experience |
| topic | Aide économique - Afrique - Cas, Études de Asistencia económica - Africa - Estudio de casos Capacidad absorbente (Economía) - Estudio de casos Capacité d'absorption (Économie politique) - Afrique - Cas, Études de Dépenses publiques - Politique gouvernementale - Afrique - Cas, Études de Entwicklungshilfe swd Política de gastos de gobierno - Africa - Estudio de casos Wirtschaftshilfe swd Öffentliche Investition swd Absorptive capacity (Economics) Africa Case studies Economic assistance Africa Case studies Government spending policy Africa Case studies |
| topic_facet | Aide économique - Afrique - Cas, Études de Asistencia económica - Africa - Estudio de casos Capacidad absorbente (Economía) - Estudio de casos Capacité d'absorption (Économie politique) - Afrique - Cas, Études de Dépenses publiques - Politique gouvernementale - Afrique - Cas, Études de Entwicklungshilfe Política de gastos de gobierno - Africa - Estudio de casos Wirtschaftshilfe Öffentliche Investition Absorptive capacity (Economics) Africa Case studies Economic assistance Africa Case studies Government spending policy Africa Case studies Afrika Fallstudiensammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015710474&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002597241 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bergandrew themacroeconomicsofscalingupaidlessonsfromrecentexperience |