Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area:
Gespeichert in:
Format: | Buch |
---|---|
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Brussels
European Communities
2006
|
Schriftenreihe: | European Economy
Special report ; 2006,4 |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Beschreibung: | XII, 193 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. |
ISBN: | 9279012207 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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adam_text |
Contents
Main findings 1
1. Introduction 3
2. General developments in 2005 4
2.1. Employment and unemployment performance 4
2.2. Monitoring the remaining gap with the Lisbon employment targets 10
3. Employment developments and economic growth 18
3.1. The responsiveness of employment to economic growth 18
3.2. The contribution of employment and labour productivity to GDP growth 21
3.3. Employment prospects in coming years 22
4. Modelling recent employment developments in the euro area 27
4.1. Modelling employment growth in the euro area 27
4.2. Analysing the resilience of employment in the recent slowdown 27
4.3. Employment outlook for 2006 and 2007 31
5. Wage developments 33
5.1. The euro area 33
5.1.1. Developments in nominal labour costs 33
5.1.2. Assessment of the impact of labour costs developments 47
5.2. Catch up countries outside the euro area 53
5.2.1. Aggregate developments 55
5.2.2. Catch up growth and sectoral wage developments 58
5.3. Other countries outside the euro area: Denmark, Sweden and the UK 60
5.4. Overall assessment and outlook 63
6. Special issue: Labour market adjustment in the euro area 65
6.1. Introduction 65
6.2. A review of the issues discussed in the economic literature 66
6.3. The nature of differentials in output growth and labour market performances 70
6.4. The role of initial conditions on labour markets 76
6.5. Wage adjustment in the euro area 85
6.6. Conclusions 110
vii
Annex 1 — Supplementary analysis on labour market adjustment in the euro area 113
Annex 1.1 Growth differentials in agrowth accounting framework 113
Annex 1.2 Structural change as a source of productivity growth 115
Annex 1.3 The persistance of employment growth 118
Annex 1.4 How closely is employment in services related to employment in manufacturing? 120
Annex 1.5 Structural change and the reallocation of employment 123
Annex 1.6 Tables and graphs 125
References 129
Annex 2 — Decomposing changes in employment rates: taking account of the population effect
and participation rate effect 133
Statistical annex 137
viii
Tables
1: Labour market indicators 4
2: Employment growth — contribution by gender and age groups (in %) 7
3: Employment rate and participation rate contribution to changes by gender and age groups 8
4: Decomposing changes in the unemployment rate in 2005 11
5: Lisbon employment targets: required job performance 12
6: Employment growth rate used in the simulation 15
7: Employment rates in 2010, alternative simulation 16
8: Job intensity of growth (elasticity of employment to growth) 20
9: GDP growth and its sources in 2005 22
10: GDP growth and its sources 1997 2004 23
11: Commission's forecasts (Autumn 2005 and Spring 2006) 26
12: OLS estimates of employment equations with and without break over 1970Q1 2005Q4 28
13: Total tax wedge on labour (including soc. sec. employers) 40
14: Tax wedge on labour for the average wage worker and its components 41
15: Tax wedge on labour for the low wage worker (67 % of APW) and its components 42
16: Compensation per employee 48
17: Real unit labour costs 53
18: Country specific performance relative to euro area 72
19: Country specific performance relative to euro area: selected trend variables 73
20: Sectoral composition of employment 1996 2003 84
21: Elasticities of wages with respect to prices, productivity and unemployment
in the economic literature 92
22: Dispersion of the level of unit labour costs and its determinants, euro area Member States 97
23: Correlation of annual sectoral labour costs growth with labour costs growth
in manufacturing, 1996 2004 104
Boxes
1: Econometric estimation of employment equations 28
2: Wage indicators — main concepts and conceptual differences 36
3: The evolution of tax wedges on labour 39
ix
Graphs
1: Employment growth, 2004 2005 5
2: Increases in the employment rate (2005, in pp.) 7
3: Estimates of structural (NAWRU) and cyclical unemployment rates 9
4: Employed and unemployed persons (age 15 64), euro area 12
5: Progress towards the Lisbon targets: total and female employment rate, 2005 14
6: Progress towards the Lisbon targets: total and older workers employment rate, 2005 14
7: Job intensity of growth 19
8: Employment and unemployment expectations; business and consumer surveys 25
9: Dynamic simulation of employment in the euro area 29
10: Estimation of trend EU 15 employment rate 29
11: Actual employment and out of sample forecast in the period of economic slowdown (2001 2005) . 30
12: Real labour cost growth in the euro area (deflated by GDP deflator) 31
13: Forecast employment productivity growth (employment equations and ECFIN) 32
14: Forecast productivity growth (employment equation and ECFIN) from a longer term perspective . 32
15: Adjusted wage share, EU aggregates 34
16: Annual nominal wage growth in the euro area 35
17: Quarterly nominal wage growth in the euro area 35
18: Output gap, negotiated and actual wage growth, euro area 37
19: Hourly labour cost growth by sectors, euro area 37
20: Contribution of non wage labour costs to total wage growth, euro area 38
21: Contribution of non wage labour costs to total wage growth 2005, euro area Member States 39
22: Wage growth in the euro area, ex DE, EL and IE 44
23: Acceleration in wage growth, euro area Member States 44
24: Convergence of hourly labour cost growth across Member States 45
25: Convergence of per person labour cost growth across Member States 46
26: Compensation per employee, range and standard deviation among euro area Member States 46
27: Compensation per hour, range and standard deviation among euro area Member States 47
28: Ranking of Member States in terms of wage growth, 1999 2005 49
29: Real wage growth with different price deflators, euro area 49
30: Real wage growth 2005 with different deflators, euro area Member States 50
31: Real private consumption growth and increase of the real wage bill 2005, euro area Member States . 50
32: Real private consumption growth and increase of the real wage per employee 2005,
euro area Member States 51
33: Contribution to the increase of gross disposable income, euro area 51
34: Composition of gross disposable income 2005, euro area 52
35: Real unit labour costs, euro area 54
36: Nominal unit labour costs, euro area 54
37: Nominal unit labour costs in Member States, 2005 55
38: Unit labour costs in the new Member States, 2005 56
39: Real unit labour costs in the new Member States, 2005 57
x
40: Change in nominal wage growth in the new Member States, 2005 57
41: Change in the growth of nominal unit labour costs in the new Member States, 2005 58
42: Nominal wage growth in the new Member States, 2004 and acceleration 2005 59
43: Growth of nominal unit labour costs in the new Member States, 2004 and acceleration 2005 59
44: Contribution of non wage labour costs to the increase of labour costs, catch up countries 60
45: Correlation between wage growth in manufacturing and services in the new Member States,
1999 2005 61
46: Wedge between the increase in nominal unit labour costs in services and manufacturing
in the new Member States, 1999 2004 61
47: Nominal wage growth (compensation per employee) in Denmark, Sweden and the UK 62
48: Increase in real unit labour costs in Denmark, Sweden and the UK 62
49: Nominal unit costs growth and inflation 2001 05 63
50: Real unit labour costs growth and change in the employment rate 2001 05 64
51: Dispersion of GDP growth across euro area countries 74
52: Contribution to variance of GDP growth for EUR 10 74
53: Ranking of employment and output performance 75
54: Output and employment clusters 1996 2005 76
55: Output and employment performance in the cyclical upswing 1996 2000 77
56: Output and employment performance in the economic slowdown 2001 2005 77
57: International trends in participation rates 79
58: Contribution to changes in participation rates 1996 2004 80
59: Convergence of employment rates 1996 2004 80
60: Convergence of female employment rates 1996 2004 81
61: Contribution of male and female employment to employment growth 1996 2004 81
62: Convergence of unemployment rates 82
63: Sectoral breakdown of employment in the euro area 2003 82
64: Change in the sectoral breakdown in the euro area 1996 2003 83
65: Actual and hypothetical employment growth if the sectoral composition in 1996 had been
the same as in the euro area, average 1996 2003 84
66: Breakdown of sectoral composition effect 85
67: Initial wage levels in the euro area Member States 1996 86
68: Initial wage and labour productivity levels in the euro area Member States 1996 86
69: Relative unit labour cost levels in the euro area Member States 1996 87
70: Relative unit labour cost levels 1996 and employment growth in the euro area Member States
1996 2005 87
71: Ranking of employment and wage growth 89
72: Wage and employment growth 1996 2005 89
73: Nominal wage growth in boom and slump 90
74: Nominal unit labour costs growth in boom and slump 90
75: Real wage growth in boom and slump 91
76: Real unit labour costs growth in boom and slump 91
77: Elasticity with respect to unemployment according to different specifications 93
xi
78: Elasticity with respect to productivity according to different specifications 93
79: Convergence in hourly compensation 94
80: Convergence in compensation per employee 95
81: Convergence in nominal unit labour costs (adjusted for differences in prices of goods and services) . 95
82: Convergence in nominal unit labour costs (adjusted for differences in goods prices) 96
83: Convergence in relative nominal unit labour costs (adjusted for differences in prices
of goods and services) 96
84: Response of employment to a real wage shock, results from 4 different estimates 98
85: Response of employment to a real GDP shock, results from 4 different estimates 98
86: Unit labour costs in manufacturing and export growth, average growth rates 1996 2005 100
87: Unit labour costs in the total economy and export growth, average growth rates 1996 2005 100
88: Unit labour costs in the total economy and in manufacturing 101
89: Labour costs and employment in manufacturing average 2001 2005 101
90: Decomposition of output in manufacturing and export growth, average 1996 2005 102
91: Average wage growth in manufacturing and services, compensation per employee, 1997 2004 103
92: Average wage growth in manufacturing and market services, hourly labour costs, 1997 2004 103
93: Growth of labour costs and labour productivity in services relative to manufacturing, 1996 2004 . 105
94: Average change in nominal unit labour costs in services relative to manufacturing, 1996 2004 105
95: Growth of hourly labour costs in services relative to manufacturing and change in the employment
share of services, 1996 2004 107
96: Growth of unit labour costs in services relative to manufacturing and change in the employment
share of services, 1996 2004 107
97: Growth of relative unit labour costs in services relative to manufacturing and change
in the employment share of services, euro area 1996 2003 108
98: Coefficient of correlation between growth of unit labour costs in services relative to manufacturing
and change in the employment share of services, Member States 1996 2004 108
99: Growth of labour costs and initial relative unit labour costs in services, 1996 2004 109
100: Growth of relative real labour costs and change in the employment share of services, 1996 2004 . . 109
xii |
adam_txt |
Contents
Main findings 1
1. Introduction 3
2. General developments in 2005 4
2.1. Employment and unemployment performance 4
2.2. Monitoring the remaining gap with the Lisbon employment targets 10
3. Employment developments and economic growth 18
3.1. The responsiveness of employment to economic growth 18
3.2. The contribution of employment and labour productivity to GDP growth 21
3.3. Employment prospects in coming years 22
4. Modelling recent employment developments in the euro area 27
4.1. Modelling employment growth in the euro area 27
4.2. Analysing the resilience of employment in the recent slowdown 27
4.3. Employment outlook for 2006 and 2007 31
5. Wage developments 33
5.1. The euro area 33
5.1.1. Developments in nominal labour costs 33
5.1.2. Assessment of the impact of labour costs developments 47
5.2. Catch up countries outside the euro area 53
5.2.1. Aggregate developments 55
5.2.2. Catch up growth and sectoral wage developments 58
5.3. Other countries outside the euro area: Denmark, Sweden and the UK 60
5.4. Overall assessment and outlook 63
6. Special issue: Labour market adjustment in the euro area 65
6.1. Introduction 65
6.2. A review of the issues discussed in the economic literature 66
6.3. The nature of differentials in output growth and labour market performances 70
6.4. The role of initial conditions on labour markets 76
6.5. Wage adjustment in the euro area 85
6.6. Conclusions 110
vii
Annex 1 — Supplementary analysis on labour market adjustment in the euro area 113
Annex 1.1 Growth differentials in agrowth accounting framework 113
Annex 1.2 Structural change as a source of productivity growth 115
Annex 1.3 The persistance of employment growth 118
Annex 1.4 How closely is employment in services related to employment in manufacturing? 120
Annex 1.5 Structural change and the reallocation of employment 123
Annex 1.6 Tables and graphs 125
References 129
Annex 2 — Decomposing changes in employment rates: taking account of the population effect
and participation rate effect 133
Statistical annex 137
viii
Tables
1: Labour market indicators 4
2: Employment growth — contribution by gender and age groups (in %) 7
3: Employment rate and participation rate contribution to changes by gender and age groups 8
4: Decomposing changes in the unemployment rate in 2005 11
5: Lisbon employment targets: required job performance 12
6: Employment growth rate used in the simulation 15
7: Employment rates in 2010, alternative simulation 16
8: Job intensity of growth (elasticity of employment to growth) 20
9: GDP growth and its sources in 2005 22
10: GDP growth and its sources 1997 2004 23
11: Commission's forecasts (Autumn 2005 and Spring 2006) 26
12: OLS estimates of employment equations with and without break over 1970Q1 2005Q4 28
13: Total tax wedge on labour (including soc. sec. employers) 40
14: Tax wedge on labour for the average wage worker and its components 41
15: Tax wedge on labour for the low wage worker (67 % of APW) and its components 42
16: Compensation per employee 48
17: Real unit labour costs 53
18: Country specific performance relative to euro area 72
19: Country specific performance relative to euro area: selected trend variables 73
20: Sectoral composition of employment 1996 2003 84
21: Elasticities of wages with respect to prices, productivity and unemployment
in the economic literature 92
22: Dispersion of the level of unit labour costs and its determinants, euro area Member States 97
23: Correlation of annual sectoral labour costs growth with labour costs growth
in manufacturing, 1996 2004 104
Boxes
1: Econometric estimation of employment equations 28
2: Wage indicators — main concepts and conceptual differences 36
3: The evolution of tax wedges on labour 39
ix
Graphs
1: Employment growth, 2004 2005 5
2: Increases in the employment rate (2005, in pp.) 7
3: Estimates of structural (NAWRU) and cyclical unemployment rates 9
4: Employed and unemployed persons (age 15 64), euro area 12
5: Progress towards the Lisbon targets: total and female employment rate, 2005 14
6: Progress towards the Lisbon targets: total and older workers employment rate, 2005 14
7: Job intensity of growth 19
8: Employment and unemployment expectations; business and consumer surveys 25
9: Dynamic simulation of employment in the euro area 29
10: Estimation of trend EU 15 employment rate 29
11: Actual employment and out of sample forecast in the period of economic slowdown (2001 2005) . 30
12: Real labour cost growth in the euro area (deflated by GDP deflator) 31
13: Forecast employment productivity growth (employment equations and ECFIN) 32
14: Forecast productivity growth (employment equation and ECFIN) from a longer term perspective . 32
15: Adjusted wage share, EU aggregates 34
16: Annual nominal wage growth in the euro area 35
17: Quarterly nominal wage growth in the euro area 35
18: Output gap, negotiated and actual wage growth, euro area 37
19: Hourly labour cost growth by sectors, euro area 37
20: Contribution of non wage labour costs to total wage growth, euro area 38
21: Contribution of non wage labour costs to total wage growth 2005, euro area Member States 39
22: Wage growth in the euro area, ex DE, EL and IE 44
23: Acceleration in wage growth, euro area Member States 44
24: Convergence of hourly labour cost growth across Member States 45
25: Convergence of per person labour cost growth across Member States 46
26: Compensation per employee, range and standard deviation among euro area Member States 46
27: Compensation per hour, range and standard deviation among euro area Member States 47
28: Ranking of Member States in terms of wage growth, 1999 2005 49
29: Real wage growth with different price deflators, euro area 49
30: Real wage growth 2005 with different deflators, euro area Member States 50
31: Real private consumption growth and increase of the real wage bill 2005, euro area Member States . 50
32: Real private consumption growth and increase of the real wage per employee 2005,
euro area Member States 51
33: Contribution to the increase of gross disposable income, euro area 51
34: Composition of gross disposable income 2005, euro area 52
35: Real unit labour costs, euro area 54
36: Nominal unit labour costs, euro area 54
37: Nominal unit labour costs in Member States, 2005 55
38: Unit labour costs in the new Member States, 2005 56
39: Real unit labour costs in the new Member States, 2005 57
x
40: Change in nominal wage growth in the new Member States, 2005 57
41: Change in the growth of nominal unit labour costs in the new Member States, 2005 58
42: Nominal wage growth in the new Member States, 2004 and acceleration 2005 59
43: Growth of nominal unit labour costs in the new Member States, 2004 and acceleration 2005 59
44: Contribution of non wage labour costs to the increase of labour costs, catch up countries 60
45: Correlation between wage growth in manufacturing and services in the new Member States,
1999 2005 61
46: Wedge between the increase in nominal unit labour costs in services and manufacturing
in the new Member States, 1999 2004 61
47: Nominal wage growth (compensation per employee) in Denmark, Sweden and the UK 62
48: Increase in real unit labour costs in Denmark, Sweden and the UK 62
49: Nominal unit costs growth and inflation 2001 05 63
50: Real unit labour costs growth and change in the employment rate 2001 05 64
51: Dispersion of GDP growth across euro area countries 74
52: Contribution to variance of GDP growth for EUR 10 74
53: Ranking of employment and output performance 75
54: Output and employment clusters 1996 2005 76
55: Output and employment performance in the cyclical upswing 1996 2000 77
56: Output and employment performance in the economic slowdown 2001 2005 77
57: International trends in participation rates 79
58: Contribution to changes in participation rates 1996 2004 80
59: Convergence of employment rates 1996 2004 80
60: Convergence of female employment rates 1996 2004 81
61: Contribution of male and female employment to employment growth 1996 2004 81
62: Convergence of unemployment rates 82
63: Sectoral breakdown of employment in the euro area 2003 82
64: Change in the sectoral breakdown in the euro area 1996 2003 83
65: Actual and hypothetical employment growth if the sectoral composition in 1996 had been
the same as in the euro area, average 1996 2003 84
66: Breakdown of sectoral composition effect 85
67: Initial wage levels in the euro area Member States 1996 86
68: Initial wage and labour productivity levels in the euro area Member States 1996 86
69: Relative unit labour cost levels in the euro area Member States 1996 87
70: Relative unit labour cost levels 1996 and employment growth in the euro area Member States
1996 2005 87
71: Ranking of employment and wage growth 89
72: Wage and employment growth 1996 2005 89
73: Nominal wage growth in boom and slump 90
74: Nominal unit labour costs growth in boom and slump 90
75: Real wage growth in boom and slump 91
76: Real unit labour costs growth in boom and slump 91
77: Elasticity with respect to unemployment according to different specifications 93
xi
78: Elasticity with respect to productivity according to different specifications 93
79: Convergence in hourly compensation 94
80: Convergence in compensation per employee 95
81: Convergence in nominal unit labour costs (adjusted for differences in prices of goods and services) . 95
82: Convergence in nominal unit labour costs (adjusted for differences in goods prices) 96
83: Convergence in relative nominal unit labour costs (adjusted for differences in prices
of goods and services) 96
84: Response of employment to a real wage shock, results from 4 different estimates 98
85: Response of employment to a real GDP shock, results from 4 different estimates 98
86: Unit labour costs in manufacturing and export growth, average growth rates 1996 2005 100
87: Unit labour costs in the total economy and export growth, average growth rates 1996 2005 100
88: Unit labour costs in the total economy and in manufacturing 101
89: Labour costs and employment in manufacturing average 2001 2005 101
90: Decomposition of output in manufacturing and export growth, average 1996 2005 102
91: Average wage growth in manufacturing and services, compensation per employee, 1997 2004 103
92: Average wage growth in manufacturing and market services, hourly labour costs, 1997 2004 103
93: Growth of labour costs and labour productivity in services relative to manufacturing, 1996 2004 . 105
94: Average change in nominal unit labour costs in services relative to manufacturing, 1996 2004 105
95: Growth of hourly labour costs in services relative to manufacturing and change in the employment
share of services, 1996 2004 107
96: Growth of unit labour costs in services relative to manufacturing and change in the employment
share of services, 1996 2004 107
97: Growth of relative unit labour costs in services relative to manufacturing and change
in the employment share of services, euro area 1996 2003 108
98: Coefficient of correlation between growth of unit labour costs in services relative to manufacturing
and change in the employment share of services, Member States 1996 2004 108
99: Growth of labour costs and initial relative unit labour costs in services, 1996 2004 109
100: Growth of relative real labour costs and change in the employment share of services, 1996 2004 . . 109
xii |
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era | Geschichte 2005 gnd |
era_facet | Geschichte 2005 |
format | Book |
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id | DE-604.BV022429581 |
illustrated | Illustrated |
index_date | 2024-07-02T17:28:45Z |
indexdate | 2025-01-02T11:17:21Z |
institution | BVB |
isbn | 9279012207 |
language | English |
oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015637793 |
oclc_num | 645416329 |
open_access_boolean | |
owner | DE-20 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-12 DE-N2 DE-188 |
owner_facet | DE-20 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-12 DE-N2 DE-188 |
physical | XII, 193 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. |
publishDate | 2006 |
publishDateSearch | 2006 |
publishDateSort | 2006 |
publisher | European Communities |
record_format | marc |
series | European Economy |
series2 | European Economy : Special report |
spelling | Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area [European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs] Brussels European Communities 2006 XII, 193 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier European Economy : Special report 2006,4 Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte 2005 gnd rswk-swf Einkommensentwicklung (DE-588)4151338-1 gnd rswk-swf Arbeitsmarkt (DE-588)4002733-8 gnd rswk-swf Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 b Arbeitsmarkt (DE-588)4002733-8 s Einkommensentwicklung (DE-588)4151338-1 s Geschichte 2005 z DE-604 European Economy Special report ; 2006,4 (DE-604)BV014888898 2006,4 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015637793&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
spellingShingle | Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area European Economy Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Einkommensentwicklung (DE-588)4151338-1 gnd Arbeitsmarkt (DE-588)4002733-8 gnd |
subject_GND | (DE-588)5098525-5 (DE-588)4151338-1 (DE-588)4002733-8 |
title | Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area |
title_auth | Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area |
title_exact_search | Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area |
title_exact_search_txtP | Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area |
title_full | Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area [European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs] |
title_fullStr | Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area [European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs] |
title_full_unstemmed | Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area [European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs] |
title_short | Labour market and wage developments in 2005, with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area |
title_sort | labour market and wage developments in 2005 with special focus on labour market adjustment in the euro area |
topic | Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Einkommensentwicklung (DE-588)4151338-1 gnd Arbeitsmarkt (DE-588)4002733-8 gnd |
topic_facet | Europäische Union Einkommensentwicklung Arbeitsmarkt |
url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015637793&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
volume_link | (DE-604)BV014888898 |