Verfügbarkeit: Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika

Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika:

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser:	Uzunov, Nikola 1930-2010 (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	Macedonian
Veröffentlicht:	Skopje Makedonska Akad. na Naukite i Umetnostite 2005
Schlagworte:	Wirtschaftspolitik Makroökonomie
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract
Beschreibung:	PST: Economics and macroeconomic policy. - In kyrill. Schr., mazedon. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache
Beschreibung:	262 S. graph. Darst.
ISBN:	9989101485

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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text	СОДРЖИНА ПРЕДГОВОР ...................................................................... 9 I. ЗА УЛОГАТА НА ИДЕОЛОГШАТА И НА НАУКАТА ............ 13 II. ПОСЕВНАТА УЛОГА НА ЕКОНОМСКАТА НАУКА ............. 25 Трансферот и сопствените истражувања ...................... 26 Специфичните карактеристики на општествените науки 27 Односите на економската наука co макроекономската политика ............................................................ 29 Односите на економската наука co стопанската практика ............................................................ 34 Индивидуалните сфаќања во јавноста и аргументите на економската наука ........................................... 35 III. ОСНОВНИТЕ ТЕОРЕТСКИ КОНЦЕПЦИИ 3 А ЕКОНОМИКАТА ...................................................... 37 Економскиот либерализам ......................................... 38 Државниот интервенционизам .................................... 45 Социј алдемократските концепции за економиката ........ 52 Марксистичките концепции за социјалистичката економика .......................................................... 62 IV. НОВИ ШКОЛИ НА ЕКОНОМСКАТА НАУКА ВО СВЕТОТ И НИВНОТО ВЛШАНИЕ ВРЗ ЕКОНОМСКАТА ПОЛИТИКА НАДРЖАВИТЕ ............................................................. 77 Новите школи......................................................... 78 В лиј анието врз макроекономската политика ................ 91 V. ЕКОНОМСКАТА НАУКА И ПОЛИТОЛОГИЈАТА ................ 95 Политологи) ата како наука ........................................ 95 Политиката како моќ на власта или како збир на односи? .......................................................... 96 Поврзаноста меѓу економијата и политиката ................ 98 Политолошки сценарија............................................ 104 Никола Узунов VI. СРОДНОСТА И НЕСОВПАЃАЊАТА МЕЃУ ЕКОНОМИЈАТА И СОЦИОЛОГИЈАТА ...................................................... 107 Основите на социологијата ........................................ 107 Социјалната стратификација ...................................... 116 Макроекономската политика и социјалната политика .... 120 Распределбата на вкупните приходи и на бруто домашниот производ ............................................. 125 Колку еможно приближуваньето? ............................... 128 VII. ЕКОНОМСКАТА НАУКА И ДЕМОГРАФИЈАТА ................. 133 Вовед ..................................................................... 133 Порастот на населението ........................................... 137 Демографската транзиција .......................................... 140 Популационата политика ........................................... 143 Вработувањето и невработеноста ................................ 146 Демографските промени во Република Македониј а ....... 151 VIII. СТАТИСТИЧКАТА ОСНОВА ПРИ КРЕИРАЊЕТО НА МАКРОЕКОНОМСКАТА ПОЛИТИК А ........................ 157 Статистички мерен?а ................................................ 157 Таргети на политиката .............................................. 161 1Х.ЕКОНОМИЈАТАИТЕХНОЛОГШАТА .............................. 165 Вовед ..................................................................... 165 Технолошкиот развој како фактор за економскиот развиток ............................................................ 169 X. ЕКОНОМИЈАТА И ЕКОЛОГШАТА ................................... 175 Загадувањата на природната средина и на човековата околина ............................................................. 176 Реалните несовпаѓања............................................... 177 Можните решенија................................................... 181 Проблемот на загадувањата и на заштитата во Република Македонија ..................................... 184 XI. НАЦИОНАЛНАТА ЕКОНОМИЈА НА РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША ВО ФАЗАТА НА ТРАНЗИЦИЈ ATA ............ 189 Резултати и проблеми во транзицијата ........................ 190 Резултати и проблеми во стопанскиот развој................ 198 Заклучок ................................................................ 202 XII. ПРАГОТ НА/ЗА САМОРАЗВИВАЊЕ. ПОСЕВНО ВО РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША .................. 205 Вовед ..................................................................... 205 Примери од светот ................................................... 207 Економската наука и макроекономската политика 7 Прагот за саморазвивање во Република Македонија...... 213 Заклучок ................................................................. 222 XIII. ЕКОН0МИЈАТА НА ЗЕМЈИТЕ ВО ЈУГОИСТОЧНА ЕВРОПА ..................................................................... 225 Економијата во корелација со етнологијата и историографијата ............................................. 225 Географиј ата и економијата ....................................... 228 Комплементарноста како основен индикатор за макроекономската политика на Балканот ............ 234 Регионализација - европеизација - глобализација ......... 237 ECONOMICS AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY (Summary) ............... 245 РЕФЕРЕНЦИ ..................................................................... 255 Цитирана литература................................................ 255 Користени студии, зборници и декларации ................... 260 Nikola UZUNOV ECONOMICS AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY (Summary) This book has resulted from a project that was conducted at the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts in 2003 and in 2004. The author s previously published works were also used, introducing, of course, the necessary up-dates. In fact, the book was designed as a synthesis of a long-range observation and analysis of deve¬ lopments in both national and in world economies. The latest achievements in eco¬ nomics were followed from books and journals in libraries. The study visits made by the author to universities and institutions in different countries worldwide were of profound benefit. The author has followed periodical statistical reports, daily infor¬ mation in the mass media, statements made in assemblies and parliaments, govern¬ mental strategies and plans, laws and other legal acts, as well as communications with ministries and advisers in state institutions. The author s mandate as a member of the Government of the Republic of Macedonia in 1967/71 was also a considerable advantage, while his personal experience in various different economic environments and systems was certainly of great significance too. The title additionally indicates the author s specialization in research and in educational activities in the area of macroeconomics. In everyday life and in the progression of time ideologies and sciences play an important role. We can state empirically, however, that the effects of these driving forces are not always in parallel or in a straight line but there are oppositions and collisions which exert their negative impact on historical processes. Today it is expected that science has the priority. But in practice ideology toughly maintains its superio¬ rity and tends to subjugate even the most contemporary social science to ideologiza- tion. Ideology also fosters the voluntarism of politics. There are considerable diffe¬ rences in the very characters of ideology and of science, so that their influences are diverse although they exist in continual interaction. Ideology is established not only in a simple way as a belief, but also by means of scientific knowledge which rises later to the level of universal and long-standing truths. And science considers its 246 Nikola Uzunov knowledge to be true inasmuch as the phenomenon observed does not change itself in practice. True science does not raise any idea to the level of absolute truth. Without further examinations and re-examinations science stops being science. Inconsistencies are most clearly perceived in the following example: ideology favours the idea of social equity, while economics conforms to the law of economic efficiency. The problem becomes complex because of the fact that these two goals cannot be divided. They are contradictory, but also closely linked at the same time. Social reforms, evolutions, and even transitions to a new social and economic system can be conceived frequently as a search for solutions to the contradiction between these two goals. Actually, there are different social preferences in practice - ethical and utilitarian ones. In politics this leads to the conclusion of seeking alternative solutions or various combinations of political strategies. In the long run, the essence of solutions is reduced to the necessity that even the creators of ideology should make new observations applying therein the comparative method. The ideas accepted are not irrelevant, but they are not yet sufficient for a real evaluation of social practice. Science takes a different approach. It makes analyses first, and only afterwards does it draw conclusions and makes recommendations to policy-makers. The approach of science to a comparative evaluation, based on objective criteria, means a step forward. There is no synthesis between ideology and science, nor it can be made. They are different spiritual phenomena and cannot be united. Ideology is a reflex of reality on the mind, while science is knowledge that derives from analyses. But the problem does not end here. The defect of ideology is that it can be easily dogmatized, transfor¬ ming ideas into dogmas, while the defect of science is that it easily becomes doctri¬ naire, transforming its own theories into doctrines. There is only one step from doctri¬ nes to dogmas. If science established its own doctrines, it would accept even more easily the ready-made dogmas of ideology. The next step is mythology. Dogmas easily grow into myths. This phenomenon is absolutely evident in the area of economics. Science also performs another very important role, and that is to investigate the trends of the development of historical processes and to formulate the laws of development. The alternative, to leave everything to spontaneous flows, then imposes itself. The idea is that overall progress can be achieved in freedom, even with the incomplete expert knowledge of specific individuals. That means another alternative which is even harsher than the frequent inconsistency between ideology and science. Nevertheless, continuing with these considerations, we reach the conclusion that sophisticated science and rational policy are more successful than spontaneity. * Science plays a specific role, different from education, macroeconomic policy and economic practice, although it is complementarily connected with these sectors. This does not mean that science is more important, but that it is a specific sector which is necessary for the efficiency of the others. On a relative scale, it is stated that the economics of Europe is lagging behind the economics of the USA. This refers particularly to applied economics. The scientific activities of all countries __________________ Economies and Macroeconomic Policy ______________247 represent a symbiosis of the knowledge absorbed through transfer and of the know¬ ledge acquired by their own research. The results achieved in such a way are applied later in politics and in practice. The entire circle must be completed. The social sciences, including economics, are susceptible to ideological and political influences. The only solution to this is the firm determination of the actors in the scientific sector to objectivity in their conclusions. The second specificity of social sciences, when compared to the natural sciences, is the instability of their subject of research, that is, of society itself, and of the economy within its frames. Thus, historical determinism is rightly negated. Science ought to be prepared to re¬ treat from its own explications and theories when the latest investigations show that it has made mistakes in the past, or that the social phenomena have changed. The way out can be found in the permanent following of statistical indicators. Science and politics are two different activities although they are closely connected. The role of economics is to inform and to instruct the macroeconomic policy. Politics, for its part, is decision-making and action taken to execute the deci¬ sions. Politics has the right to accept, or not to accept, the proposals made by science, as well as the responsibility for the results produced by its own decisions and actions. Economists often hesitate about their personal role in society, but it can be said with conviction that a unity of science and politics, in one person, is impossible, although it sounds attractive. The solutions are as follows: 1. participation of economists in politics as advisors, but with a consistent objectivity; and 2. that economists involved in macroeconomic policy be less ideologized than public personalities coming from other (non-economic) sectors. Economic practice is less connected to economic science than is the case with macroeconomic policy. A solution can be found so that research units are established within companies for issues related to business economics and to technology. * In this book the author sublimates the basic theoretical concepts of econo¬ mics, divided into the following sections: • Economic liberalism; • State interventionism; • Socio-democratic concepts of economics; and • Marxist concepts of socialist economics. Governmental institutions, as bearers of the macroeconomic policy, and various business enterprises, as bearers of the microeconomic (business) policy in the world, mainly start out from these principles in their decision-making. The ideas of economic liberalism are widely known. They emerged in the second half of the 18th century, dominated in the 19 century, began to decrease in the second half of the 20th century, and were renewed at the beginning of the 21st century. With the passing of time classical liberalism developed into its own nega¬ tion. Its logical justification lost its meaning because in the 20th century there was an 248 Nikola Uzunov expansion of economic monopolies which limited the freedom of the market. Neoli¬ beralism developed in the last decades of the 20th century and continued into the 21st century, employing the theory of rational expectations and the thesis of human (civil) rights. At the end of the 20lh and the beginning of the 21st centuries the school of global economy became dominant within the broad theoretical concepts of neo¬ liberalism. The concepts of state interventionism prevailed in the world after the great economic crisis of 1929/33. The main reasons for that were as follows: monopolistic tendencies (from an earlier period), economic crisis and depressions, economic im¬ balances and unevenness, social differences. John Maynard Keynes was the main theoretician of this concept, and he had his followers as well, so that it prevailed in the economics of the West till the end of the 20th century. The responsibilities of the state s macroeconomic policy are: influence over interest rates, influence over the distribution of national income, control over monopolies, undertaking of public works, protection of agriculture, etc. In practice state interference in macroeconomic policy began in the USA with the well-known „new deal of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and has continued in the developed countries of western Europe. After World War Π this interference was also considered to be a protection from the Marxist revolutionary concepts of that time. The socio-democratic concepts of economics lasted throughout the entire 19th and the 20th centuries, in parallel with the liberalistic and interventionistic ideas which were intended to be „purely economic, i.e. without showing sufficient con¬ cerns for the social consequences that resulted from economic trends. The socio- democratic concepts in science are in effect Ά juncture between economics and socio¬ logy, while in politics they are a juncture between macroeconomic and social policies. In Europe political parties were founded having exactly these or similar names and programmes. However, they were all adherents of evolution and did not propagate or undertake any revolutionary measures. They were not radical, although they had „social contents . Their origins were in the right wings of the workers unions which were founded in the 19th and at the beginning of the 20th centuries. The theory of welfare economics is the best known in economic science, having the political aim of creating a welfare state for the whole population. This contains all concepts of state interventionism. Another concept emerged, too, being defined as democratic socialism. But in the 1980s and the 1990s the socio-democratic concepts entered into a critical phase which is still lasting because they went too far with their social demands which cannot be endured by applied economics. Marxist concepts emerged in the second half of the 19th century and conti¬ nued up to the 1990s. Their main differences from all other concepts lay in their radical direction which demanded the abolition of capitalism through a proletarian revolution. The classics Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels had numerous followers in all socialist countries, as well as in the capitalist ones. The basic Marxist concepts of socialist economics can be summarized as follows: total socialization of the means of production, co-operative grouping of small private producers into working collec- __________________ Economies and Macroeconomic Policy _______________249 tives, a new model of distribution of the national income, state initiative and control over the economy, workers self-management in companies, planned development of the economy, steady and rapid growth of the forces of production, etc. But the problems of the economic systems of all the socialist countries accumulated and increased in the course of several decades, although at the same time they showed results in their economic development. Thus, in the 1990s all the former socialist countries experienced a total transition of their economic and social systems, i.e. the era of post-socialism had come. The history of economic thought and science began as far back as in ancient times. The historiography of economic education differentiates and defines a consi¬ derable number of schools of economics. These schools were formed, amended and transformed following the development of economy in the world, changes in the history of mankind, and the impacts of other social sciences. The most important procedures in the methodology of economics were the observation and the follow-up of economic phenomena, and the logics of drawing conclusions, as in philosophy. The statements were not exact. Subjective judgements were often included. Immense progress was made in the 20th century with the implementation of statistics and of mathematics, and most recently, with the domination of the information sciences. In this book the author interprets the new schools of economics, i.e. mixed economy, econometry, the school of microeconomics, neoinstitutionalism, neo- Keynesianism, neoliberalism, monetarism, information economics, global economy, social and market economy, economic transition and the school of human development. The schools of economics have a strong impact on macroeconomic policy. There are theses and antitheses, but also syntheses, stemming from these schools. Syntheses do not represent some kind of middle point, but a new thesis which even grows further, through an elaboration, into a completely new school. There are divergences in economics, but convergences as well. In applied macroeconomics there exist hesitations deriving from the variations of the schools and of specific theses. Politicians hesitate, and yet they choose in the end. The divergent views of the schools often become an excuse for the voluntarism of politics. As a shortcoming of science we have to recognize the indoctrination of the new generations of students when only one school is persistently followed. Politology as a science of politics should also be taken into consideration in order to grasp the connection of economics with macroeconomics. Applying other sciences, and politology, too, politics can overcome voluntarism, but it is not easy because politics is still considered to be a „skill (know-how), so that sciences are used „skillfully . The true solution of the problem is to understand politics not as a power of authority, but as a reality of political relations, although it is not easy to abandon the idea of politics as a „personal power which uses personal „skills . That is the thesis of „gifted leaders. 250 Nikola Uzunov In the social life there is a close connection between economic and political systems. The basic question about a specific country and a specific period of time is whether there is a consistency between these two systems. Logic implies the con¬ clusion that they are consistent even when they are both monistic. But the historical practice of the 20th century has shown, however, that when these two systems are pluralistic it is more successful. The links between their elements are more durable then because there is some natural affinity, i.e. a compatibility. The methodology of politology also includes the method of political scena¬ rios which is to be used in skilful combination with the strategies of economics. This means that in practice the contents of the political processes should not depend to such a measure upon the chosen model of decision-making, but upon its real and possible utilization in the management of society, particularly of the economy. Economics and sociology are closely related social sciences according to their subject of research and the methods applied in their analyses. This may seem to be a paradox, but the greatest inconsistencies between these two sciences emerge when measures for macroeconomic and for macrosocial policies are being proposed. That emerges from conflicts between the ethical values in philosophy, to which sociology adheres, and the phenomena of economic practice, which are respected by economics. Attempts to unite them were made by the socio-democratic and by the Marxist concepts and schools in the 1 9th and the 20th centuries, but in the 1 980s and the 1990s the former retreated remarkably, while the latter experienced a total transition. In the 1950s economics developed the theory of „vicious circles of po¬ verty that can be considered as relevant to underdeveloped countries even today. Sociology embraces various investigations, elaborations and definitions. One of these is the thesis of the „economic basis of society . In practice, however, the state politics most frequently establishes itself as the basis of the society, with all its ideologically proclaimed preferences. In the past, regarding the social stratification of society, sciences foresaw an extreme polarization between the „upper and the „lower classes and strata. Nevertheless, in the second half of the 20th century the social processes developed quite differently in practice, and the middle class became most numerous. Today this is happening with the transition in the ex-socialist countries. Macroeconomic and macrosocial policies converge in the preparation of agendas, strategies and programmes, as well as in the formulation of targets. Yet, they diverge yet when measures are to be taken and specific decisions are made. When distributing the total incomes of companies, microeconomics must give prio¬ rity to the remitting of material expenses, settlement of debts, equipment provision, etc. over the salaries of employees and the social security contributions to socially- owned funds. In the same way, regarding the macroeconomic policy and the distri¬ bution of the GDP, the state must concern itself with the investments which are necessary for the general economic growth, and not only with public expenditures. __________________ Economies and Macroeconomic Policy _______________251 A rapprochement between economics and of sociology is possible if they are both objective in their observations of social phenomena - without ideological considerations and without their own preferences. In a parallel manner, policies must converge when priorities are being sorted out. In practice this is better achieved by social agreements as broader formulations than purely social contracts. Even then, we should not cherish illusions. Inconsistencies will continue to exist because objectively there are contradictions among the phenomena and among the interests of the social strata. When evaluating the social system of a specific country and of a specific period of time, we have to apply several criteria which can be divided into five groups as follows: I - static efficiency of economy; Π - dynamic efficiency of economy; III - welfare of people; IV - social equity; and V - ethical values. It follows logically that an investigation of the ties between economics and demography is made, as well as between macroeconomic and population policies. As a science, demography tolerates less influence from philosophy and from ethics. Its ties with economics are based on the fact that population provides the labour force for the economy. Statistics and mathematics are the principal methods of demo¬ graphy. There are no contradictions between demography and economics as sciences. Population censuses and reports embrace a large number of non-economic charac¬ teristics, as well as economic ones. But there are contradictions between macroeconomic and population poli¬ cies. There are inconsistencies between the numbers indicating population growth and population increase, on the one hand, and the numbers indicating the employ¬ ment needs of the economy, on the other. Thus, in the 19th century, the „principles of Thomas Malthus, obsolete today, were expounded. At that time Karl Marx seve¬ rely criticized the Malthusian theory, although his explanations of its numerous in¬ consistencies became doctrinaire, too. Recently, science has began to define these inconsistencies in the economy of underdeveloped countries as a „population explo¬ sion , regarding which population theory propagates the thesis of family planning {birth control), but with poor results. Searching for an objective alternative, science has elaborated the theory of demographic transition as a law that functions within this transformation, i.e. as a global historical law that explains the changes in the cha¬ racteristics of population by stages at vital rates. The demographic transition deve¬ lops spontaneously, and the exact results come from: education, culture, migration, urbanization, health, women s employment, etc. In the case of the Republic of Mace¬ donia, this demographic transition took place in the second half of the 20* century. * Statistics is extremely important as a science, and as a practice, for econo¬ mics and for macroeconomic policy. Especially concerning the politics, it is the only ground on which to get rid of ideology, dogma, doctrine, and propaganda. For the creation of macroeconomic models, strategies, plans, programmes, etc., statistical 252 Nikola Uzunov measurements are precisely the most appropriate procedures, and from them come the statistical and mathematical extrapolations. Exactness is extremely important for the sciences. It is achieved in economics by means of statistics. Futuristic prognoses for future epochs are abstract imaginings, not based on statistical measurements, so that economic policy cannot be pursued using them, as it refers to terms in the imme¬ diate future, and not to entire epochs. The new targets of economic policy normally result from the indications of the statistical figures. But we should point out the fact that statistics loses in value as a profession if politics, with the assistance of the statistical authorities, uses the notorious „statistical cheating . Technology is also relevant for economics and macroeconomic policy. It is a virtually universally accepted attitude in contemporary economics that technological development in the broader sense (i.e. science, academic education, technology, engineering and the information sciences) is the most crucial factor for the entire economic development, as well as for the structuring and restructuring of the economy. And, in addition, one more conclusion: economics and technology are most diverse in scientific research, but they are most complementary in economic practice. * As sciences, economics and ecology are objectively contradictory and oppo¬ sed to each other in practice, in contrast to the ties between economics and techno¬ logy. Economics may obey the rales of ecology as a kind of self-constraint, which means a retreat, or at least a limitation of its own expansive ambitions. Practice faces the „banal question of protection costs - and the results are poor. This implies that the „profit economy has no „feeling for ecological alarms. These issues are concen¬ trated in the thesis of economics called externalities. The most logical solution is to transform the external defects into the internal concerns of every company, like other direct costs. This is the thesis that the polluter should pay. Ecology proclaims the necessity to „increase awareness , but without appropriate results. A possible solution is to include the problem within the frames of other values, and to solve it by means of suitable public policy measures, in the first place by macroeconomic policy measures and by legal provisions. * The national economy of the Republic of Macedonia underwent a complete transition in the 1990s and the 2000s, but it did not become as efficient and successful as had been expected at the outset. The same is true of the macroeconomic policy. Transition emerged as a desire and a need particularly because of the total stagna¬ tion of the 1 980s. At first there was a rapid and spontaneous growth of the private sector in the small businesses. Privatization was performed throughout almost the entire sector of big businesses. Business relations among firms and companies be¬ came completely independent and commercialized. Employment became a matter of hiring, administration - managerial or entrepreneurial, economic flows - compie- __________________ Economies and Macroeconomic Policy _______________253 tely market-oriented, etc. The macroeconomic policy achieved currency and price stability. Nevertheless, the economic development is slow, and the grey economy has expanded. The stage of the adjustment of the country towards membership in the European Union began in the new century. * The theme of the threshold of self-development of the economies of specific countries is of profound importance to economic science in the world. Economics defines the paradigm of the „threshold as a kind of „border which an economically underdeveloped country has reached - and where it faces difficulties in crossing the border line and continuing its growth so as to become a developed country. Self-deve¬ lopment is a capacity of growth that implies the use of one s own factors for deve¬ lopment, although a foreign inflow will be present even then, but not as a decisive factor. The „threshold is actually a whole „fence that has to be jumped over! It is a decisive „moment in the history of some countries that lasts two or three decades. It takes place qualitatively in a constellation of several favourable factors: natural, economic, social, demographic, political, educational, cultural, to which the foreign inflow attaches as: capital, credits, technology, trade, donations. Speaking objecti¬ vely, one s own accumulation capacity, which must be connected to other driving forces, can be considered the most relevant factor. There are well-know examples from the past: from England, France, the USA, Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia, Russia, the Scandinavian countries, up to Ireland and China today. History has not shown any standard model for the transition across this threshold. Transition has taken place in different countries at different periods of time. The social and political conditions have also been important every¬ where. Today there are whole geographical regions in the world where the threshold has not yet been crossed (Africa, South East Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, the Southern Mediterranean, the Central Balkans, etc.) There are numerous limiting factors. After World War II, in Yugoslavia there were two types of regions: the eco¬ nomically more developed and the economically less developed. Nevertheless, Slo¬ venia can be considered as the only region that has crossed the threshold and has become capable of self-development. Today the Republic of Macedonia still stands in front of the threshold of self-development. The unfavourable phenomena in the non-economic sphere have had, and still have, a powerful influence. Such are: international affairs in the Bal¬ kans, national characteristics of the population, slow demographic transition, unemploy¬ ment and poverty, requirements of the public non-economic sector, unfairness in economic practice, public opinion, quality of urbanization, etc. Reforms were un¬ dertaken, but without satisfactory effects. Direct foreign investments are very low. Small businesses have reached their upper limits, depending, as they do, upon local demands. The banking sector does not have enough of its own assets. The savings deposits of the population are low because of the need for personal consumption. Any prognosis of the term for the transition over the threshold will not be scientifi- 254 Nikola Uzunov cally based. Foreign grants and donations are useful, but they are not a factor in the transition. Concrete proposals presented by science for specific problems would be of use to the macroeconomic policy. The concrete decisions and objectives of politics should derive from these proposals. These actions, undertaken by policy, should be permanent, regardless of the current changes in democracy. * „The Economy of the South East European Countries is the title of a sepa¬ rate chapter in this book. Economic science is not ethnocentric, but the macroeco¬ nomic policy of this region is still under immense pressures from national aspirations which continue to be nationalistic in all these countries. The old term „balkanization means: disunity, intolerance and confrontation. The economic practice still suffers from such exclusivities. The area of South East Europe today embraces countries which are on the whole on the Balkan Peninsula: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro, and Croatia. In the north we can also add: Slo¬ venia, Hungary, Romania and Moldavia. In addition, in the east: Turkey and Cyprus, which were in the past, and are still today, turned towards this region, regarding the new economy too. The name „Western Balkans is of recent origin and covers: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Croatia and Macedonia - which were most involved in mutual confrontation in the 1 990s. Today we can con¬ sider that, besides Slovenia, in the last three decades Greece, Cyprus and Hungary have crossed the „threshold of self-development . It is Croatia s turn now. The natural resources of the region, which belong to at least two countries everywhere, are of benefit to economics - seas, lowlands, plains, mountains, rivers, river basins, climates, rainfalls, temperatures, etc. The big cities are significant, too, as „poles of development. There are also common limiting factors both of an eco¬ nomic and a non-economic nature. There are considerable differences in the attained level of economic development. By the implementation of economic science as a very important factor for the further economic development of all the Balkan countries, it is possible to point out the objective characteristics of their mutual complementarity. This can be the basic indicator for the macroeconomic policy of the countries in the region; it can be of use for: trade relations, specialization of industrial branches, etc. The present orientation towards the European Union is not only an important question for foreign policy, but also for a macroeconomic policy which comes from complementarity. Thus, considering all today s conditions and indicators, simultaneous processes and policies directed towards: regionalization, Europeanization and globalization can be emphasized and recommended as rational ones. More concretized directions for mutual economic relations in the region of South East Europe would most probably be as follows: free flow and transfer of ideas, people, goods, services, capital, credits, money, currency, information, etc. - without state, ideological, national or political barriers.
adam_txt	СОДРЖИНА ПРЕДГОВОР . 9 I. ЗА УЛОГАТА НА ИДЕОЛОГШАТА И НА НАУКАТА . 13 II. ПОСЕВНАТА УЛОГА НА ЕКОНОМСКАТА НАУКА . 25 Трансферот и сопствените истражувања . 26 Специфичните карактеристики на општествените науки 27 Односите на економската наука co макроекономската политика . 29 Односите на економската наука co стопанската практика . 34 Индивидуалните сфаќања во јавноста и аргументите на економската наука . 35 III. ОСНОВНИТЕ ТЕОРЕТСКИ КОНЦЕПЦИИ 3 А ЕКОНОМИКАТА . 37 Економскиот либерализам . 38 Државниот интервенционизам . 45 Социј алдемократските концепции за економиката . 52 Марксистичките концепции за социјалистичката економика . 62 IV. НОВИ ШКОЛИ НА ЕКОНОМСКАТА НАУКА ВО СВЕТОТ И НИВНОТО ВЛШАНИЕ ВРЗ ЕКОНОМСКАТА ПОЛИТИКА НАДРЖАВИТЕ . 77 Новите школи. 78 В лиј анието врз макроекономската политика . 91 V. ЕКОНОМСКАТА НАУКА И ПОЛИТОЛОГИЈАТА . 95 Политологи)' ата како наука . 95 Политиката како моќ на власта или како збир на односи? . 96 Поврзаноста меѓу економијата и политиката . 98 Политолошки сценарија. 104 Никола Узунов VI. СРОДНОСТА И НЕСОВПАЃАЊАТА МЕЃУ ЕКОНОМИЈАТА И СОЦИОЛОГИЈАТА . 107 Основите на социологијата . 107 Социјалната стратификација . 116 Макроекономската политика и социјалната политика . 120 Распределбата на вкупните приходи и на бруто домашниот производ . 125 Колку еможно приближуваньето? . 128 VII. ЕКОНОМСКАТА НАУКА И ДЕМОГРАФИЈАТА . 133 Вовед . 133 Порастот на населението . 137 Демографската транзиција . 140 Популационата политика . 143 Вработувањето и невработеноста . 146 Демографските промени во Република Македониј а . 151 VIII. СТАТИСТИЧКАТА ОСНОВА ПРИ КРЕИРАЊЕТО НА МАКРОЕКОНОМСКАТА ПОЛИТИК А . 157 Статистички мерен?а . 157 Таргети на политиката . 161 1Х.ЕКОНОМИЈАТАИТЕХНОЛОГШАТА . 165 Вовед . 165 Технолошкиот развој како фактор за економскиот развиток . 169 X. ЕКОНОМИЈАТА И ЕКОЛОГШАТА . 175 Загадувањата на природната средина и на човековата околина . 176 Реалните несовпаѓања. 177 Можните решенија. 181 Проблемот на загадувањата и на заштитата во Република Македонија . 184 XI. НАЦИОНАЛНАТА ЕКОНОМИЈА НА РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША ВО ФАЗАТА НА ТРАНЗИЦИЈ ATA . 189 Резултати и проблеми во транзицијата . 190 Резултати и проблеми во стопанскиот развој. 198 Заклучок . 202 XII. ПРАГОТ НА/ЗА САМОРАЗВИВАЊЕ. ПОСЕВНО ВО РЕПУБЛИКА МАКЕДОНША . 205 Вовед . 205 Примери од светот . 207 Економската наука и макроекономската политика 7 Прагот за саморазвивање во Република Македонија. 213 Заклучок . 222 XIII. ЕКОН0МИЈАТА НА ЗЕМЈИТЕ ВО ЈУГОИСТОЧНА ЕВРОПА . 225 Економијата во корелација со етнологијата и историографијата . 225 Географиј ата и економијата . 228 Комплементарноста како основен индикатор за макроекономската политика на Балканот . 234 Регионализација - европеизација - глобализација . 237 ECONOMICS AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY (Summary) . 245 РЕФЕРЕНЦИ . 255 Цитирана литература. 255 Користени студии, зборници и декларации . 260 Nikola UZUNOV ECONOMICS AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY (Summary) This book has resulted from a project that was conducted at the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts in 2003 and in 2004. The author's previously published works were also used, introducing, of course, the necessary up-dates. In fact, the book was designed as a synthesis of a long-range observation and analysis of deve¬ lopments in both national and in world economies. The latest achievements in eco¬ nomics were followed from books and journals in libraries. The study visits made by the author to universities and institutions in different countries worldwide were of profound benefit. The author has followed periodical statistical reports, daily infor¬ mation in the mass media, statements made in assemblies and parliaments, govern¬ mental strategies and plans, laws and other legal acts, as well as communications with ministries and advisers in state institutions. The author's mandate as a member of the Government of the Republic of Macedonia in 1967/71 was also a considerable advantage, while his personal experience in various different economic environments and systems was certainly of great significance too. The title additionally indicates the author's specialization in research and in educational activities in the area of macroeconomics. In everyday life and in the progression of time ideologies and sciences play an important role. We can state empirically, however, that the effects of these driving forces are not always in parallel or in a straight line but there are oppositions and collisions which exert their negative impact on historical processes. Today it is expected that science has the priority. But in practice ideology toughly maintains its superio¬ rity and tends to subjugate even the most contemporary social science to ideologiza- tion. Ideology also fosters the voluntarism of politics. There are considerable diffe¬ rences in the very characters of ideology and of science, so that their influences are diverse although they exist in continual interaction. Ideology is established not only in a simple way as a belief, but also by means of scientific knowledge which rises later to the level of universal and long-standing truths. And science considers its 246 Nikola Uzunov knowledge to be true inasmuch as the phenomenon observed does not change itself in practice. True science does not raise any idea to the level of absolute truth. Without further examinations and re-examinations science stops being science. Inconsistencies are most clearly perceived in the following example: ideology favours the idea of social equity, while economics conforms to the law of economic efficiency. The problem becomes complex because of the fact that these two goals cannot be divided. They are contradictory, but also closely linked at the same time. Social reforms, evolutions, and even transitions to a new social and economic system can be conceived frequently as a search for solutions to the contradiction between these two goals. Actually, there are different social preferences in practice - ethical and utilitarian ones. In politics this leads to the conclusion of seeking alternative solutions or various combinations of political strategies. In the long run, the essence of solutions is reduced to the necessity that even the creators of ideology should make new observations applying therein the comparative method. The ideas accepted are not irrelevant, but they are not yet sufficient for a real evaluation of social practice. Science takes a different approach. It makes analyses first, and only afterwards does it draw conclusions and makes recommendations to policy-makers. The approach of science to a comparative evaluation, based on objective criteria, means a step forward. There is no synthesis between ideology and science, nor it can be made. They are different spiritual phenomena and cannot be united. Ideology is a reflex of reality on the mind, while science is knowledge that derives from analyses. But the problem does not end here. The defect of ideology is that it can be easily dogmatized, transfor¬ ming ideas into dogmas, while the defect of science is that it easily becomes doctri¬ naire, transforming its own theories into doctrines. There is only one step from doctri¬ nes to dogmas. If science established its own doctrines, it would accept even more easily the ready-made dogmas of ideology. The next step is mythology. Dogmas easily grow into myths. This phenomenon is absolutely evident in the area of economics. Science also performs another very important role, and that is to investigate the trends of the development of historical processes and to formulate the laws of development. The alternative, to leave everything to spontaneous flows, then imposes itself. The idea is that overall progress can be achieved in freedom, even with the incomplete expert knowledge of specific individuals. That means another alternative which is even harsher than the frequent inconsistency between ideology and science. Nevertheless, continuing with these considerations, we reach the conclusion that sophisticated science and rational policy are more successful than spontaneity. * Science plays a specific role, different from education, macroeconomic policy and economic practice, although it is complementarily connected with these sectors. This does not mean that science is more important, but that it is a specific sector which is necessary for the efficiency of the others. On a relative scale, it is stated that the economics of Europe is lagging behind the economics of the USA. This refers particularly to applied economics. The scientific activities of all countries _ Economies and Macroeconomic Policy _247 represent a symbiosis of the knowledge absorbed through transfer and of the know¬ ledge acquired by their own research. The results achieved in such a way are applied later in politics and in practice. The entire circle must be completed. The social sciences, including economics, are susceptible to ideological and political influences. The only solution to this is the firm determination of the actors in the scientific sector to objectivity in their conclusions. The second specificity of social sciences, when compared to the natural sciences, is the instability of their subject of research, that is, of society itself, and of the economy within its frames. Thus, historical determinism is rightly negated. Science ought to be prepared to re¬ treat from its own explications and theories when the latest investigations show that it has made mistakes in the past, or that the social phenomena have changed. The way out can be found in the permanent following of statistical indicators. Science and politics are two different activities although they are closely connected. The role of economics is to inform and to instruct the macroeconomic policy. Politics, for its part, is decision-making and action taken to execute the deci¬ sions. Politics has the right to accept, or not to accept, the proposals made by science, as well as the responsibility for the results produced by its own decisions and actions. Economists often hesitate about their personal role in society, but it can be said with conviction that a unity of science and politics, in one person, is impossible, although it sounds attractive. The solutions are as follows: 1. participation of economists in politics as advisors, but with a consistent objectivity; and 2. that economists involved in macroeconomic policy be less ideologized than public personalities coming from other (non-economic) sectors. Economic practice is less connected to economic science than is the case with macroeconomic policy. A solution can be found so that research units are established within companies for issues related to business economics and to technology. * In this book the author sublimates the basic theoretical concepts of econo¬ mics, divided into the following sections: • Economic liberalism; • State interventionism; • Socio-democratic concepts of economics; and • Marxist concepts of socialist economics. Governmental institutions, as bearers of the macroeconomic policy, and various business enterprises, as bearers of the microeconomic (business) policy in the world, mainly start out from these principles in their decision-making. The ideas of economic liberalism are widely known. They emerged in the second half of the 18th century, dominated in the 19 century, began to decrease in the second half of the 20th century, and were renewed at the beginning of the 21st century. With the passing of time classical liberalism developed into its own nega¬ tion. Its logical justification lost its meaning because in the 20th century there was an 248 Nikola Uzunov expansion of economic monopolies which limited the freedom of the market. Neoli¬ beralism developed in the last decades of the 20th century and continued into the 21st century, employing the theory of rational expectations and the thesis of human (civil) rights. At the end of the 20lh and the beginning of the 21st centuries the school of global economy became dominant within the broad theoretical concepts of neo¬ liberalism. The concepts of state interventionism prevailed in the world after the great economic crisis of 1929/33. The main reasons for that were as follows: monopolistic tendencies (from an earlier period), economic crisis and depressions, economic im¬ balances and unevenness, social differences. John Maynard Keynes was the main theoretician of this concept, and he had his followers as well, so that it prevailed in the economics of the West till the end of the 20th century. The responsibilities of the state's macroeconomic policy are: influence over interest rates, influence over the distribution of national income, control over monopolies, undertaking of public works, protection of agriculture, etc. In practice state interference in macroeconomic policy began in the USA with the well-known „new deal" of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and has continued in the developed countries of western Europe. After World "War Π this interference was also considered to be a protection from the Marxist revolutionary concepts of that time. The socio-democratic concepts of economics lasted throughout the entire 19th and the 20th centuries, in parallel with the liberalistic and interventionistic ideas which were intended to be „purely" economic, i.e. without showing sufficient con¬ cerns for the social consequences that resulted from economic trends. The socio- democratic concepts in science are in effect Ά juncture between economics and socio¬ logy, while in politics they are a juncture between macroeconomic and social policies. In Europe political parties were founded having exactly these or similar names and programmes. However, they were all adherents of evolution and did not propagate or undertake any revolutionary measures. They were not radical, although they had „social contents". Their origins were in the right wings of the workers' unions which were founded in the 19th and at the beginning of the 20th centuries. The theory of welfare economics is the best known in economic science, having the political aim of creating a welfare state for the whole population. This contains all concepts of state interventionism. Another concept emerged, too, being defined as democratic socialism. But in the 1980s and the 1990s the socio-democratic concepts entered into a critical phase which is still lasting because they went too far with their social demands which cannot be endured by applied economics. Marxist concepts emerged in the second half of the 19th century and conti¬ nued up to the 1990s. Their main differences from all other concepts lay in their radical direction which demanded the abolition of capitalism through a proletarian revolution. The classics Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels had numerous followers in all socialist countries, as well as in the capitalist ones. The basic Marxist concepts of socialist economics can be summarized as follows: total socialization of the means of production, co-operative grouping of small private producers into working collec- _ Economies and Macroeconomic Policy _249 tives, a new model of distribution of the national income, state initiative and control over the economy, workers' self-management in companies, planned development of the economy, steady and rapid growth of the forces of production, etc. But the problems of the economic systems of all the socialist countries accumulated and increased in the course of several decades, although at the same time they showed results in their economic development. Thus, in the 1990s all the former socialist countries experienced a total transition of their economic and social systems, i.e. the era of post-socialism had come. The history of economic thought and science began as far back as in ancient times. The historiography of economic education differentiates and defines a consi¬ derable number of schools of economics. These schools were formed, amended and transformed following the development of economy in the world, changes in the history of mankind, and the impacts of other social sciences. The most important procedures in the methodology of economics were the observation and the follow-up of economic phenomena, and the logics of drawing conclusions, as in philosophy. The statements were not exact. Subjective judgements were often included. Immense progress was made in the 20th century with the implementation of statistics and of mathematics, and most recently, with the domination of the information sciences. In this book the author interprets the new schools of economics, i.e. mixed economy, econometry, the school of microeconomics, neoinstitutionalism, neo- Keynesianism, neoliberalism, monetarism, information economics, global economy, social and market economy, economic transition and the school of human development. The schools of economics have a strong impact on macroeconomic policy. There are theses and antitheses, but also syntheses, stemming from these schools. Syntheses do not represent some kind of middle point, but a new thesis which even grows further, through an elaboration, into a completely new school. There are divergences in economics, but convergences as well. In applied macroeconomics there exist hesitations deriving from the variations of the schools and of specific theses. Politicians hesitate, and yet they choose in the end. The divergent views of the schools often become an excuse for the voluntarism of politics. As a shortcoming of science we have to recognize the indoctrination of the new generations of students when only one school is persistently followed. Politology as a science of politics should also be taken into consideration in order to grasp the connection of economics with macroeconomics. Applying other sciences, and politology, too, politics can overcome voluntarism, but it is not easy because politics is still considered to be a „skill" (know-how), so that sciences are used „skillfully". The true solution of the problem is to understand politics not as a power of authority, but as a reality of political relations, although it is not easy to abandon the idea of politics as a „personal power" which uses personal „skills". That is the thesis of „gifted" leaders. 250 Nikola Uzunov In the social life there is a close connection between economic and political systems. The basic question about a specific country and a specific period of time is whether there is a consistency between these two systems. Logic implies the con¬ clusion that they are consistent even when they are both monistic. But the historical practice of the 20th century has shown, however, that when these two systems are pluralistic it is more successful. The links between their elements are more durable then because there is some natural affinity, i.e. a compatibility. The methodology of politology also includes the method of political scena¬ rios which is to be used in skilful combination with the strategies of economics. This means that in practice the contents of the political processes should not depend to such a measure upon the chosen model of decision-making, but upon its real and possible utilization in the management of society, particularly of the economy. Economics and sociology are closely related social sciences according to their subject of research and the methods applied in their analyses. This may seem to be a paradox, but the greatest inconsistencies between these two sciences emerge when measures for macroeconomic and for macrosocial policies are being proposed. That emerges from conflicts between the ethical values in philosophy, to which sociology adheres, and the phenomena of economic practice, which are respected by economics. Attempts to unite them were made by the socio-democratic and by the Marxist concepts and schools in the 1 9th and the 20th centuries, but in the 1 980s and the 1990s the former retreated remarkably, while the latter experienced a total transition. In the 1950s economics developed the theory of „vicious circles of po¬ verty" that can be considered as relevant to underdeveloped countries even today. Sociology embraces various investigations, elaborations and definitions. One of these is the thesis of the „economic basis of society". In practice, however, the state politics most frequently establishes itself as the basis of the society, with all its ideologically proclaimed preferences. In the past, regarding the social stratification of society, sciences foresaw an extreme polarization between the „upper" and the „lower" classes and strata. Nevertheless, in the second half of the 20th century the social processes developed quite differently in practice, and the middle class became most numerous. Today this is happening with the transition in the ex-socialist countries. Macroeconomic and macrosocial policies converge in the preparation of agendas, strategies and programmes, as well as in the formulation of targets. Yet, they diverge yet when measures are to be taken and specific decisions are made. When distributing the total incomes of companies, microeconomics must give prio¬ rity to the remitting of material expenses, settlement of debts, equipment provision, etc. over the salaries of employees and the social security contributions to socially- owned funds. In the same way, regarding the macroeconomic policy and the distri¬ bution of the GDP, the state must concern itself with the investments which are necessary for the general economic growth, and not only with public expenditures. _ Economies and Macroeconomic Policy _251 A rapprochement between economics and of sociology is possible if they are both objective in their observations of social phenomena - without ideological considerations and without their own preferences. In a parallel manner, policies must converge when priorities are being sorted out. In practice this is better achieved by social agreements as broader formulations than purely social contracts. Even then, we should not cherish illusions. Inconsistencies will continue to exist because objectively there are contradictions among the phenomena and among the interests of the social strata. When evaluating the social system of a specific country and of a specific period of time, we have to apply several criteria which can be divided into five groups as follows: I - static efficiency of economy; Π - dynamic efficiency of economy; III - welfare of people; IV - social equity; and V - ethical values. It follows logically that an investigation of the ties between economics and demography is made, as well as between macroeconomic and population policies. As a science, demography tolerates less influence from philosophy and from ethics. Its ties with economics are based on the fact that population provides the labour force for the economy. Statistics and mathematics are the principal methods of demo¬ graphy. There are no contradictions between demography and economics as sciences. Population censuses and reports embrace a large number of non-economic charac¬ teristics, as well as economic ones. But there are contradictions between macroeconomic and population poli¬ cies. There are inconsistencies between the numbers indicating population growth and population increase, on the one hand, and the numbers indicating the employ¬ ment needs of the economy, on the other. Thus, in the 19th century, the „principles" of Thomas Malthus, obsolete today, were expounded. At that time Karl Marx seve¬ rely criticized the Malthusian theory, although his explanations of its numerous in¬ consistencies became doctrinaire, too. Recently, science has began to define these inconsistencies in the economy of underdeveloped countries as a „population explo¬ sion", regarding which population theory propagates the thesis of family planning {birth control), but with poor results. Searching for an objective alternative, science has elaborated the theory of demographic transition as a law that functions within this transformation, i.e. as a global historical law that explains the changes in the cha¬ racteristics of population by stages at vital rates. The demographic transition deve¬ lops spontaneously, and the exact results come from: education, culture, migration, urbanization, health, women's employment, etc. In the case of the Republic of Mace¬ donia, this demographic transition took place in the second half of the 20* century. * Statistics is extremely important as a science, and as a practice, for econo¬ mics and for macroeconomic policy. Especially concerning the politics, it is the only ground on which to get rid of ideology, dogma, doctrine, and propaganda. For the creation of macroeconomic models, strategies, plans, programmes, etc., statistical 252 Nikola Uzunov measurements are precisely the most appropriate procedures, and from them come the statistical and mathematical extrapolations. Exactness is extremely important for the sciences. It is achieved in economics by means of statistics. Futuristic prognoses for future epochs are abstract imaginings, not based on statistical measurements, so that economic policy cannot be pursued using them, as it refers to terms in the imme¬ diate future, and not to entire epochs. The new targets of economic policy normally result from the indications of the statistical figures. But we should point out the fact that statistics loses in value as a profession if politics, with the assistance of the statistical authorities, uses the notorious „statistical cheating". Technology is also relevant for economics and macroeconomic policy. It is a virtually universally accepted attitude in contemporary economics that technological development in the broader sense (i.e. science, academic education, technology, engineering and the information sciences) is the most crucial factor for the entire economic development, as well as for the structuring and restructuring of the economy. And, in addition, one more conclusion: economics and technology are most diverse in scientific research, but they are most complementary in economic practice. * As sciences, economics and ecology are objectively contradictory and oppo¬ sed to each other in practice, in contrast to the ties between economics and techno¬ logy. Economics may obey the rales of ecology as a kind of self-constraint, which means a retreat, or at least a limitation of its own expansive ambitions. Practice faces the „banal" question of protection costs - and the results are poor. This implies that the „profit economy' has no „feeling" for ecological alarms. These issues are concen¬ trated in the thesis of economics called externalities. The most logical solution is to transform the external defects into the internal concerns of every company, like other direct costs. This is the thesis that the polluter should pay. Ecology proclaims the necessity to „increase awareness", but without appropriate results. A possible solution is to include the problem within the frames of other values, and to solve it by means of suitable public policy measures, in the first place by macroeconomic policy measures and by legal provisions. * The national economy of the Republic of Macedonia underwent a complete transition in the 1990s and the 2000s, but it did not become as efficient and successful as had been expected at the outset. The same is true of the macroeconomic policy. Transition emerged as a desire and a need particularly because of the total stagna¬ tion of the 1 980s. At first there was a rapid and spontaneous growth of the private sector in the small businesses. Privatization was performed throughout almost the entire sector of big businesses. Business relations among firms and companies be¬ came completely independent and commercialized. Employment became a matter of hiring, administration - managerial or entrepreneurial, economic flows - compie- _ Economies and Macroeconomic Policy _253 tely market-oriented, etc. The macroeconomic policy achieved currency and price stability. Nevertheless, the economic development is slow, and the grey economy has expanded. The stage of the adjustment of the country towards membership in the European Union began in the new century. * The theme of the threshold of self-development of the economies of specific countries is of profound importance to economic science in the world. Economics defines the paradigm of the „threshold" as a kind of „border" which an economically underdeveloped country has reached - and where it faces difficulties in crossing the border line and continuing its growth so as to become a developed country. Self-deve¬ lopment is a capacity of growth that implies the use of one's own factors for deve¬ lopment, although a foreign inflow will be present even then, but not as a decisive factor. The „threshold" is actually a whole „fence" that has to be jumped over! It is a decisive „moment" in the history of some countries that lasts two or three decades. It takes place qualitatively in a constellation of several favourable factors: natural, economic, social, demographic, political, educational, cultural, to which the foreign inflow attaches as: capital, credits, technology, trade, donations. Speaking objecti¬ vely, one's own accumulation capacity, which must be connected to other driving forces, can be considered the most relevant factor. There are well-know examples from the past: from England, France, the USA, Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia, Russia, the Scandinavian countries, up to Ireland and China today. History has not shown any standard model for the transition across this threshold. Transition has taken place in different countries at different periods of time. The social and political conditions have also been important every¬ where. Today there are whole geographical regions in the world where the threshold has not yet been crossed (Africa, South East Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, the Southern Mediterranean, the Central Balkans, etc.) There are numerous limiting factors. After World War II, in Yugoslavia there were two types of regions: the eco¬ nomically more developed and the economically less developed. Nevertheless, Slo¬ venia can be considered as the only region that has crossed the threshold and has become capable of self-development. Today the Republic of Macedonia still stands in front of the threshold of self-development. The unfavourable phenomena in the non-economic sphere have had, and still have, a powerful influence. Such are: international affairs in the Bal¬ kans, national characteristics of the population, slow demographic transition, unemploy¬ ment and poverty, requirements of the public non-economic sector, unfairness in economic practice, public opinion, quality of urbanization, etc. Reforms were un¬ dertaken, but without satisfactory effects. Direct foreign investments are very low. Small businesses have reached their upper limits, depending, as they do, upon local demands. The banking sector does not have enough of its own assets. The savings deposits of the population are low because of the need for personal consumption. Any prognosis of the term for the transition over the threshold will not be scientifi- 254 Nikola Uzunov cally based. Foreign grants and donations are useful, but they are not a factor in the transition. Concrete proposals presented by science for specific problems would be of use to the macroeconomic policy. The concrete decisions and objectives of politics should derive from these proposals. These actions, undertaken by policy, should be permanent, regardless of the current changes in democracy. * „The Economy of the South East European Countries" is the title of a sepa¬ rate chapter in this book. Economic science is not ethnocentric, but the macroeco¬ nomic policy of this region is still under immense pressures from national aspirations which continue to be nationalistic in all these countries. The old term „balkanization" means: disunity, intolerance and confrontation. The economic practice still suffers from such exclusivities. The area of South East Europe today embraces countries which are on the whole on the Balkan Peninsula: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro, and Croatia. In the north we can also add: Slo¬ venia, Hungary, Romania and Moldavia. In addition, in the east: Turkey and Cyprus, which were in the past, and are still today, turned towards this region, regarding the new economy too. The name „Western Balkans" is of recent origin and covers: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Croatia and Macedonia - which were most involved in mutual confrontation in the 1 990s. Today we can con¬ sider that, besides Slovenia, in the last three decades Greece, Cyprus and Hungary have crossed the „threshold of self-development". It is Croatia's turn now. The natural resources of the region, which belong to at least two countries everywhere, are of benefit to economics - seas, lowlands, plains, mountains, rivers, river basins, climates, rainfalls, temperatures, etc. The big cities are significant, too, as „poles" of development. There are also common limiting factors both of an eco¬ nomic and a non-economic nature. There are considerable differences in the attained level of economic development. By the implementation of economic science as a very important factor for the further economic development of all the Balkan countries, it is possible to point out the objective characteristics of their mutual complementarity. This can be the basic indicator for the macroeconomic policy of the countries in the region; it can be of use for: trade relations, specialization of industrial branches, etc. The present orientation towards the European Union is not only an important question for foreign policy, but also for a macroeconomic policy which comes from complementarity. Thus, considering all today's conditions and indicators, simultaneous processes and policies directed towards: regionalization, Europeanization and globalization can be emphasized and recommended as rational ones. More concretized directions for mutual economic relations in the region of South East Europe would most probably be as follows: free flow and transfer of ideas, people, goods, services, capital, credits, money, currency, information, etc. - without state, ideological, national or political barriers.
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spellingShingle	Uzunov, Nikola 1930-2010 Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4066493-4 (DE-588)4037174-8
title	Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika
title_alt	Economics and macroeconomic policy
title_auth	Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika
title_exact_search	Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika
title_exact_search_txtP	Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika
title_full	Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika Nikola Uzunov
title_fullStr	Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika Nikola Uzunov
title_full_unstemmed	Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika Nikola Uzunov
title_short	Ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika
title_sort	ekonomskata nauka i makroekonomskata politika
topic	Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd
topic_facet	Wirtschaftspolitik Makroökonomie
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015632304&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015632304&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
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