The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises:
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| Beschreibung: | St. Gallen, Univ., Diss., 2006 |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 258 S. graph. Darst. |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Križanović De Corbavia, Mislav |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises |c Mislav Križanović De Corbavia |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2007 | |
| 300 | |a XIV, 258 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a St. Gallen, Univ., Diss., 2006 | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804136471209181184 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | TABLE
OF
CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
........................................................................................................
ii
LIST OF EXHIBITS
.............................................................................................................
vii
LIST OF TABLES
..................................................................................................................xi
ABSTRACT
.........................................................................................................................xiii
1.
Introduction
........................................................................................................................1
1.1
Research Objectives
....................................................................................................2
1.2
Research Questions
......................................................................................................2
1.3
Structure of the Study
..................................................................................................3
2.
Currency and Financial Crises
-
Introductory Foundations
........................................5
2.1
Definitions
...................................................................................................................5
2.2
Costs of Crises
.............................................................................................................6
2.3
Brief Review of Recent Financial Crises
....................................................................8
2.3.1
From the Great Depression to the Crises of the
1980s..................................9
2.3.2
The European Exchange Rate Mechanism Crisis
(1992/93).........................9
2.3.3
The Mexican Peso Crisis
(1994/95)............................................................11
2.3.4
The Asian Crisis
(1997/98)..........................................................................13
3.
Theoretical Models of Currency and Financial Crises
.................................................16
3.1
First Generation of Models
........................................................................................17
3.1.1
General Idea of the Models
..........................................................................17
3.1.2
Assumptions of the Model
...........................................................................18
3.1.3
Mechanics of the Model
..............................................................................20
3.1.4
Predictability of Crises and Potential Indicators in the FGM
......................23
3.1.5
FGM and the Asian Crisis: Empirical Evidence
.........................................25
3.2
Second Generation Models
........................................................................................27
3.2.1
General Idea of the Models
..........................................................................28
3.2.2
Assumptions of the Model
...........................................................................29
3.2.3
Mechanics of the Model
..............................................................................31
3.2.4
Predictability of Crises and Potential Indicators in the SGM
......................34
3.2.5
SGM and the Asian Crisis: Empirical Evidence
.........................................39
3.3
Third Generation of Models
......................................................................................40
3.3.1
Moral Hazard Models
..................................................................................41
3.3.1.1
General Idea of the Models
.........................................................41
3.3.1.2
Mechanics of the Model
..............................................................42
3.3.1.3
Predictability of Crises and Potential Indicators in the Moral
Hazard Model
..............................................................................43
3.3.1.4
Moral Hazard and the Asian Crisis: Empirical Evidence
...........45
3.3.1.4.1
The Corporate Level
...............................................................................................................45
3.3.1.4.2
The Financial Level
................................................................................................................46
3.3.1.4.3
The International Level
...........................................................................................................48
3.3.1.4.4
Summary
................................................................................................................................49
3.3.2
Financial Panic Models
................................................................................50
3.3.2.1
General Idea of the Models
.........................................................50
3.3.2.2
Mechanics of the Model
..............................................................51
3.3.2.3
Predictability of Crises and Potential Indicators in the Panic
Model
..........................................................................................53
3.3.2.4
The Asian Crisis: Empirical Background of the Model
..............54
3.3.3
Balance Sheet Models
..................................................................................57
3.3.3.1
General Idea of the Models
.........................................................57
3.3.3.2
Mechanics of the Model
..............................................................59
3.3.3.3
Excursus: The Krugman
(1999)
Model and the IMF s Dilemma63
3.3.3.4
The Asian Crisis: Empirical Evidence
........................................64
3.3.3.5
Predictability of Crises and Potential Indicators in the Balance
Sheet Models
...............................................................................66
3.4
Excursus: Contagion Effects
.....................................................................................67
3.5
Theoretical Generation Models
-
Summary
..............................................................68
3.5.1
The Generation Models and Asia
-
Empirical Evidence
............................68
3.5.2
The Generation Models
-
Predictability of Crises
......................................69
4.
Early Warning Systems
...................................................................................................74
4.1
Introduction
................................................................................................................74
4.2
Structure of the Empirical Part of the Study
.............................................................75
4.3
The Evolution of Early Warning Systems
.................................................................75
4.3.1 Development
of
Standard
Approaches
........................................................76
4.3.2
Alternative Approaches
...............................................................................77
4.3.3
Applications of
EWS...................................................................................79
4.4
Developing an Early Warning System
......................................................................80
4.4.1
What are Early Warning Systems?
..............................................................80
4.4.2
Definition of a Crisis
...................................................................................82
4.4.3
Beyond Magic: Disappearing Crisis
............................................................86
4.5
Scope of the Model
....................................................................................................86
4.5.1
Country Coverage
........................................................................................87
4.5.2
Choice of Indicator Variables
......................................................................88
4.5.3
Time Period
..................................................................................................90
4.6
Statistical Methodology
.............................................................................................91
4.6.1
Regression Approach
...................................................................................92
4.6.2
Signaling Approach
.....................................................................................92
4.7
Methodological Drawbacks in Current
EWS
Approaches
........................................99
4.8 EWS
vs. In-Depth Country Analysis
.......................................................................100
4.8.1
Predictive Content of Interest Rate Spreads and Sovereign Ratings
.........101
4.8.2
Predictive Content of Analyst Reports
......................................................102
4.8.3
Reasons for Failure and Counter Argumentation
......................................103
4.9
Conclusions
..............................................................................................................104
5.
Results of the Early Warning System
-
Phase 1
..........................................................106
5.1
Crisis Identification
.................................................................................................106
5.1.1
Crisis Identification
-
Overall Sample
......................................................106
5.1.2
Crisis Identification
-
Asia
........................................................................109
5.2
Evaluation of Indicators
...........................................................................................
Ill
5.2.1
Results
-
Overall Sample
...........................................................................
Ill
5.2.2
Results-Asia
............................................................................................114
6.
Results of the Early Warning System
-
Phase II
........................................................120
6.1
Introduction
..............................................................................................................120
6.2
Database
...................................................................................................................120
6.3
Indicators
.................................................................................................................122
6.4
Results
-
Overall Sample
........................................................................................123
6.4.1
Cross-Generational
EWS -
Performance Rankings
..................................123
6.4.2
Recalculation of Phase I
-
Matching the Time Horizon
...........................126
6.5
Results-Asia
..........................................................................................................128
7.
Case Studies
-
The Russian Crisis
................................................................................132
7.1
CaseStudies: Methodology
.....................................................................................132
7.2
Introduction to the Russian Crisis
...........................................................................132
7.3
Fundamental Situation in the Pre-Crisis Period
......................................................133
7.4
Evolution of the Crisis
.............................................................................................138
7.5
Phase III
-
Predictability of the Russian Crisis
.......................................................139
7.5.1
Crisis Identification
...................................................................................139
7.5.2
Predictability of the Russian Crisis
............................................................140
7.6
Theoretical Classification of the Crisis
...................................................................146
8.
Case Studies
-
The Brazilian Crisis
.............................................................................149
8.1
Introduction
..............................................................................................................149
8.2
Fundamental Situation in the Pre-Crisis Period
......................................................150
8.3
The Evolution of the Crisis
......................................................................................153
8.4
Phase III
-
Predictability of the Brazilian Crisis
.....................................................155
8.4.1
Crisis Identification
...................................................................................155
8.4.2
Predictability of the Brazilian Crisis
.........................................................156
8.5
Theoretical Classification of the Crisis
...................................................................161
9.
Case Studies
-
The Turkish Crisis
...............................................................................165
9.1
Introduction
..............................................................................................................165
9.2
Fundamental Situation in the Pre-Crisis Period
......................................................166
9.3
Evolution of the Crisis
.............................................................................................174
9.4
Phase III
-
Predictability of the Turkish Crisis
.......................................................176
9.4.1
Crisis Identification
...................................................................................176
9.4.2
Predictability of the Turkish Crisis
............................................................177
9.5
Theoretical Classification of the Crisis
...................................................................182
10.
Case Studies
-
The Argentinean Crisis
........................................................................186
10.1
Introduction
..............................................................................................................186
10.2 Fundamental Situation in
the Pre-Crisis Period
......................................................187
10.3 Evolution
of the Crisis.............................................................................................
191
10.4 Phase
III
-
Predictability of the Argentinean Crisis
................................................192
10.4.1
Crisis Identification
...................................................................................192
10.4.2
Predictability of the Argentinean Crisis
....................................................194
10.5
Theoretical Classification of the Crisis
...................................................................199
11.
Conclusions and Outlook
..............................................................................................205
REFERENCES
....................................................................................................................210
APPENDIX
Al:
Crisis Identification Results
-
Overall Sample
....................................235
APPENDIX A2: Value Added by Phase II Indicators
-
Asia
..........................................238
APPENDIX
A3:
Indicators
-
Russia
.................................................................................243
Phase I:
.............................................................................................................................243
Phase II:
............................................................................................................................245
APPENDIX
A4:
Indicators
-
Brazil
..................................................................................247
Phase I:
.............................................................................................................................247
Phase II:
............................................................................................................................249
APPENDIX A5: Indicators
-
Turkey
................................................................................251
Phase I:
.............................................................................................................................251
Phase II:
............................................................................................................................253
APPENDIX A6: Indicators
-
Argentina
...........................................................................255
Phase I:
.............................................................................................................................255
Phase II:
............................................................................................................................257
|
| adam_txt |
TABLE
OF
CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
.
ii
LIST OF EXHIBITS
.
vii
LIST OF TABLES
.xi
ABSTRACT
.xiii
1.
Introduction
.1
1.1
Research Objectives
.2
1.2
Research Questions
.2
1.3
Structure of the Study
.3
2.
Currency and Financial Crises
-
Introductory Foundations
.5
2.1
Definitions
.5
2.2
Costs of Crises
.6
2.3
Brief Review of Recent Financial Crises
.8
2.3.1
From the Great Depression to the Crises of the
1980s.9
2.3.2
The European Exchange Rate Mechanism Crisis
(1992/93).9
2.3.3
The Mexican Peso Crisis
(1994/95).11
2.3.4
The Asian Crisis
(1997/98).13
3.
Theoretical Models of Currency and Financial Crises
.16
3.1
First Generation of Models
.17
3.1.1
General Idea of the Models
.17
3.1.2
Assumptions of the Model
.18
3.1.3
Mechanics of the Model
.20
3.1.4
Predictability of Crises and Potential Indicators in the FGM
.23
3.1.5
FGM and the Asian Crisis: Empirical Evidence
.25
3.2
Second Generation Models
.27
3.2.1
General Idea of the Models
.28
3.2.2
Assumptions of the Model
.29
3.2.3
Mechanics of the Model
.31
3.2.4
Predictability of Crises and Potential Indicators in the SGM
.34
3.2.5
SGM and the Asian Crisis: Empirical Evidence
.39
3.3
Third Generation of Models
.40
3.3.1
Moral Hazard Models
.41
3.3.1.1
General Idea of the Models
.41
3.3.1.2
Mechanics of the Model
.42
3.3.1.3
Predictability of Crises and Potential Indicators in the Moral
Hazard Model
.43
3.3.1.4
Moral Hazard and the Asian Crisis: Empirical Evidence
.45
3.3.1.4.1
The Corporate Level
.45
3.3.1.4.2
The Financial Level
.46
3.3.1.4.3
The International Level
.48
3.3.1.4.4
Summary
.49
3.3.2
Financial Panic Models
.50
3.3.2.1
General Idea of the Models
.50
3.3.2.2
Mechanics of the Model
.51
3.3.2.3
Predictability of Crises and Potential Indicators in the Panic
Model
.53
3.3.2.4
The Asian Crisis: Empirical Background of the Model
.54
3.3.3
Balance Sheet Models
.57
3.3.3.1
General Idea of the Models
.57
3.3.3.2
Mechanics of the Model
.59
3.3.3.3
Excursus: The Krugman
(1999)
Model and the IMF's Dilemma63
3.3.3.4
The Asian Crisis: Empirical Evidence
.64
3.3.3.5
Predictability of Crises and Potential Indicators in the Balance
Sheet Models
.66
3.4
Excursus: Contagion Effects
.67
3.5
Theoretical Generation Models
-
Summary
.68
3.5.1
The Generation Models and Asia
-
Empirical Evidence
.68
3.5.2
The Generation Models
-
Predictability of Crises
.69
4.
Early Warning Systems
.74
4.1
Introduction
.74
4.2
Structure of the Empirical Part of the Study
.75
4.3
The Evolution of Early Warning Systems
.75
4.3.1 Development
of
Standard
Approaches
.76
4.3.2
Alternative Approaches
.77
4.3.3
Applications of
EWS.79
4.4
Developing an Early Warning System
.80
4.4.1
What are Early Warning Systems?
.80
4.4.2
Definition of a Crisis
.82
4.4.3
Beyond Magic: Disappearing Crisis
.86
4.5
Scope of the Model
.86
4.5.1
Country Coverage
.87
4.5.2
Choice of Indicator Variables
.88
4.5.3
Time Period
.90
4.6
Statistical Methodology
.91
4.6.1
Regression Approach
.92
4.6.2
Signaling Approach
.92
4.7
Methodological Drawbacks in Current
EWS
Approaches
.99
4.8 EWS
vs. In-Depth Country Analysis
.100
4.8.1
Predictive Content of Interest Rate Spreads and Sovereign Ratings
.101
4.8.2
Predictive Content of Analyst Reports
.102
4.8.3
Reasons for Failure and Counter Argumentation
.103
4.9
Conclusions
.104
5.
Results of the Early Warning System
-
Phase 1
.106
5.1
Crisis Identification
.106
5.1.1
Crisis Identification
-
Overall Sample
.106
5.1.2
Crisis Identification
-
Asia
.109
5.2
Evaluation of Indicators
.
Ill
5.2.1
Results
-
Overall Sample
.
Ill
5.2.2
Results-Asia
.114
6.
Results of the Early Warning System
-
Phase II
.120
6.1
Introduction
.120
6.2
Database
.120
6.3
Indicators
.122
6.4
Results
-
Overall Sample
.123
6.4.1
Cross-Generational
EWS -
Performance Rankings
.123
6.4.2
Recalculation of Phase I
-
Matching the Time Horizon
.126
6.5
Results-Asia
.128
7.
Case Studies
-
The Russian Crisis
.132
7.1
CaseStudies: Methodology
.132
7.2
Introduction to the Russian Crisis
.132
7.3
Fundamental Situation in the Pre-Crisis Period
.133
7.4
Evolution of the Crisis
.138
7.5
Phase III
-
Predictability of the Russian Crisis
.139
7.5.1
Crisis Identification
.139
7.5.2
Predictability of the Russian Crisis
.140
7.6
Theoretical Classification of the Crisis
.146
8.
Case Studies
-
The Brazilian Crisis
.149
8.1
Introduction
.149
8.2
Fundamental Situation in the Pre-Crisis Period
.150
8.3
The Evolution of the Crisis
.153
8.4
Phase III
-
Predictability of the Brazilian Crisis
.155
8.4.1
Crisis Identification
.155
8.4.2
Predictability of the Brazilian Crisis
.156
8.5
Theoretical Classification of the Crisis
.161
9.
Case Studies
-
The Turkish Crisis
.165
9.1
Introduction
.165
9.2
Fundamental Situation in the Pre-Crisis Period
.166
9.3
Evolution of the Crisis
.174
9.4
Phase III
-
Predictability of the Turkish Crisis
.176
9.4.1
Crisis Identification
.176
9.4.2
Predictability of the Turkish Crisis
.177
9.5
Theoretical Classification of the Crisis
.182
10.
Case Studies
-
The Argentinean Crisis
.186
10.1
Introduction
.186
10.2 Fundamental Situation in
the Pre-Crisis Period
.187
10.3 Evolution
of the Crisis.
191
10.4 Phase
III
-
Predictability of the Argentinean Crisis
.192
10.4.1
Crisis Identification
.192
10.4.2
Predictability of the Argentinean Crisis
.194
10.5
Theoretical Classification of the Crisis
.199
11.
Conclusions and Outlook
.205
REFERENCES
.210
APPENDIX
Al:
Crisis Identification Results
-
Overall Sample
.235
APPENDIX A2: Value Added by Phase II Indicators
-
Asia
.238
APPENDIX
A3:
Indicators
-
Russia
.243
Phase I:
.243
Phase II:
.245
APPENDIX
A4:
Indicators
-
Brazil
.247
Phase I:
.247
Phase II:
.249
APPENDIX A5: Indicators
-
Turkey
.251
Phase I:
.251
Phase II:
.253
APPENDIX A6: Indicators
-
Argentina
.255
Phase I:
.255
Phase II:
.257 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Križanović De Corbavia, Mislav |
| author_facet | Križanović De Corbavia, Mislav |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Križanović De Corbavia, Mislav |
| author_variant | d c m k dcm dcmk |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV022407318 |
| classification_rvk | QM 330 QM 331 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)144527993 (DE-599)BVBBV022407318 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| genre | (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Hochschulschrift |
| id | DE-604.BV022407318 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T17:20:36Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:56:55Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015615870 |
| oclc_num | 144527993 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-384 DE-703 |
| owner_facet | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-384 DE-703 |
| physical | XIV, 258 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| publishDateSearch | 2007 |
| publishDateSort | 2007 |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Križanović De Corbavia, Mislav Verfasser aut The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises Mislav Križanović De Corbavia 2007 XIV, 258 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier St. Gallen, Univ., Diss., 2006 Währungskrise (DE-588)4396352-3 gnd rswk-swf Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Währungskrise (DE-588)4396352-3 s Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 s DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Passau application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015615870&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Križanović De Corbavia, Mislav The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises Währungskrise (DE-588)4396352-3 gnd Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4396352-3 (DE-588)4125215-9 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises |
| title_auth | The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises |
| title_exact_search | The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises |
| title_full | The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises Mislav Križanović De Corbavia |
| title_fullStr | The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises Mislav Križanović De Corbavia |
| title_full_unstemmed | The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises Mislav Križanović De Corbavia |
| title_short | The predictabiblity of currency and financial crises |
| title_sort | the predictabiblity of currency and financial crises |
| topic | Währungskrise (DE-588)4396352-3 gnd Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Währungskrise Prognosemodell Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015615870&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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