Expectations, rationality, and economic performance: models and experiments
Gespeichert in:
1. Verfasser: | |
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Format: | Buch |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Cheltenham, UK [u.a.]
Elgar
2007
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Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Table of contents only Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Beschreibung: | X, 202 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
ISBN: | 9781845427429 |
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adam_text | CONTENTS PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VIII PART I MODELS AND TOOLS 1
MARKETS AND EXPECTATIONS 3 .,1 INTRODUCTION 3 1.2 A SIMPLE SET-UP 4 1.3
THE ROLE OF PRODUCTION LAGS 5 1.4 THE MAXIM IN RULE AND EXPECTED UTILITY
MAXIMIZATION 6 1.5 SUMMARY AND FURTHER READING 9 2 EXPECTED UTILITY
MAXIMIZATION 10 2.1 INTRODUCTION 10 2.2 UTILITIES AND PROBABILITIES 10
2.3 MARKETS AND EQUILIBRIUM 11 2.4 EXPECTED UTILITY ACCORDING TO VON
NEUMANN-MORGENSTERN 12 2.5 VARIANCE OF INCOME AS MEASURE OF RISK 16 2.6
MEASURES OF RISK AVERSION 18 2.7 PORTFOLIO SELECTION AS EXEMPLARY
APPLICATION OF EXPECTED UTILITY MAXIMIZATION 19 2.8 SUMMARY AND FURTHER
READING 20 3 EFFECTS OF HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS 21 3.1 INTRODUCTION
21 3.2 THE MODEL 22 3.3 SUMMARY AND FURTHER READING . 26 APPENDIX 3.1
MODELLING HETEROGENEITY OF EXPECTATIONS WITH PROBABILITIES 29 4
FORECASTING AMONG ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES UNDER UNCERTAINTY 30 4.1
INTRODUCTION 30 4.2 CHOICE OF STRATEGY 31 4.3 EFFECTS OF LOWERING
FORECASTING COSTS 37 4.4 SUMMARY AND FURTHER READING 38 VI EXPECTATIONS,
RATIONALITY AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 5 EXPECTATIONS IN TIME SERIES
MODELS 40 5.1 INTRODUCTION 40 5.2 CONDITIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN TIME AND
RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS 40 5.3 A MARKET MODEL WITH STATIC, ADAPTIVE AND
RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS 45 5.4 EXPECTATIONS AND STOCK PRICES 51 5.5
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESES 56 5.6 SUMMARY AND
FURTHER READING 57 APPENDIX 5.1 THE SUPPLY FUNCTION DERIVED FROM
EXPECTED PROFIT MAXIMIZATION 60 APPENDIX 5.2 COMPUTATION OF THE RATIONAL
EXPECTATIONS FUNDAMENTAL PRICE 61 PART II EXPERIMENTS AND APPLICATIONS 6
COSTLY INFORMATION AND DECISION MAKING 65 6.1 INTRODUCTION 65 6.2 THE
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN 66 6.3 OPTIMAL SOLUTION STRATEGY 68 6.4 ANALYSIS OF
INDIVIDUAL INFORMATION ACQUISITION 69 6.5 ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL
PERFORMANCE 77 6.6 CONCLUSIONS 79 APPENDIX 6.1 INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE
EXPERIMENT 82 APPENDIX 6.2 LIST OF CAUSAL RULES 87 APPENDIX 6,3 PROOFS
OF PROPOSITIONS 89 7 APPLIED WELFARE ECONOMICS WITH BOUNDEDLY RATIONAL
EXPECTATIONS 91 7.1 INTRODUCTION 91 7.2 REMOTE SENSING 92 7.3
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF THE PROVISION OF REMOTELY SENSED DATA 94 7.4
HOW CAN WELFARE LOSSES BE AVOIDED? 96 7.5 CONCLUSIONS 98 8 PATTERN
RECOGNITION AS THE BASIS OF EXPECTATIONS 100 8.1 INTRODUCTION 100 8.2 A
MODEL OF PATTERN USE 101 8.3 THE EXPERIMENT 102 8.4 EVALUATING THE
RESPONSES 104 8.5 ESTIMATES OF INDIVIDUAL PATTERN USE 105 8.6 PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND MARKET PSYCHOLOGY 108 8.7 CONCLUSIONS 111 CONTENTS VII
APPENDIX 8.1 INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE EXPERIMENT 113 APPENDIX 8.2 THE
EXPERIMENTAL SERIES AND MEASURES OF D L 116 9 PATTERN-BASED
EXPECTATIONS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS 118 9.1 INTRODUCTION 118 9.2 THE
EXPERIMENT 119 9.3 EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS 122 9.4 HOW WELL DO SIMPLE
EXTRAPOLATIVE SCHEMES EXPLAIN THE ELICITED EXPECTATIONS? 125 9.5 A
SIMULATED ASSET MARKET AND TESTS OF REALISM 133 9.6 CONCLUSIONS 136
APPENDIX 9.1 INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE EXPERIMENT 139 APPENDIX 9.2 CRITERION
VALUES AND RANKINGS FOR ALL PATTERNS PRESENTED 142 10 ANTICIPATION AND
COORDINATION FAILURES 145 10.1 INTRODUCTION 145 10.2 THE GAME AND THE
TWO TREATMENTS 147 10.3 OPTIMAL STRATEGIES 151 10.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FINDINGS 154 10.5 CONCLUSIONS 158 APPENDIX 10.1 OUTLINE OF COMPUTER
PROGRAM 160 APPENDIX 10.2 PROOF THAT OUTLINED STRATEGY IS OPTIMAL 162 11
MONEY, TRANSACTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS 164 11.1 INTRODUCTION 164 11.2 A
PLAYABLE MONETARY ECONOMY 165 11.3 EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS 167 11.4
CONCLUSIONS 174 APPENDIX 11.1 INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE EXPERIMENT 177
REFERENCES 180 INDEX 193 PPN: 257964428 TITEL: EXPECTATIONS, RATIONALITY
AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE : MODELS AND EXPERIMENTS / TOBIAS ROETHELI. -
CHELTENHAM[U.A.] : EDWARD ELGAR, 2007 ISBN: 1-84542-742-4;
978-1-84542-742-9 BIBLIOGRAPHISCHER DATENSATZ IM SWB-VERBUND
|
adam_txt |
CONTENTS PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VIII PART I MODELS AND TOOLS 1
MARKETS AND EXPECTATIONS 3 .,1 INTRODUCTION 3 1.2 A SIMPLE SET-UP 4 1.3
THE ROLE OF PRODUCTION LAGS 5 1.4 THE MAXIM IN RULE AND EXPECTED UTILITY
MAXIMIZATION 6 1.5 SUMMARY AND FURTHER READING 9 2 EXPECTED UTILITY
MAXIMIZATION 10 2.1 INTRODUCTION 10 2.2 UTILITIES AND PROBABILITIES 10
2.3 MARKETS AND EQUILIBRIUM 11 2.4 EXPECTED UTILITY ACCORDING TO VON
NEUMANN-MORGENSTERN 12 2.5 VARIANCE OF INCOME AS MEASURE OF RISK 16 2.6
MEASURES OF RISK AVERSION 18 2.7 PORTFOLIO SELECTION AS EXEMPLARY
APPLICATION OF EXPECTED UTILITY MAXIMIZATION 19 2.8 SUMMARY AND FURTHER
READING 20 3 EFFECTS OF HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS 21 3.1 INTRODUCTION
21 3.2 THE MODEL 22 3.3 SUMMARY AND FURTHER READING . 26 APPENDIX 3.1
MODELLING HETEROGENEITY OF EXPECTATIONS WITH PROBABILITIES 29 4
FORECASTING AMONG ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES UNDER UNCERTAINTY 30 4.1
INTRODUCTION 30 4.2 CHOICE OF STRATEGY 31 4.3 EFFECTS OF LOWERING
FORECASTING COSTS 37 4.4 SUMMARY AND FURTHER READING 38 VI EXPECTATIONS,
RATIONALITY AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 5 EXPECTATIONS IN TIME SERIES
MODELS 40 5.1 INTRODUCTION 40 5.2 CONDITIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN TIME AND
RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS 40 5.3 A MARKET MODEL WITH STATIC, ADAPTIVE AND
RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS 45 5.4 EXPECTATIONS AND STOCK PRICES 51 5.5
EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESES 56 5.6 SUMMARY AND
FURTHER READING 57 APPENDIX 5.1 THE SUPPLY FUNCTION DERIVED FROM
EXPECTED PROFIT MAXIMIZATION 60 APPENDIX 5.2 COMPUTATION OF THE RATIONAL
EXPECTATIONS FUNDAMENTAL PRICE 61 PART II EXPERIMENTS AND APPLICATIONS 6
COSTLY INFORMATION AND DECISION MAKING 65 6.1 INTRODUCTION 65 6.2 THE
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN 66 6.3 OPTIMAL SOLUTION STRATEGY 68 6.4 ANALYSIS OF
INDIVIDUAL INFORMATION ACQUISITION 69 6.5 ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL
PERFORMANCE 77 6.6 CONCLUSIONS 79 APPENDIX 6.1 INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE
EXPERIMENT 82 APPENDIX 6.2 LIST OF CAUSAL RULES 87 APPENDIX 6,3 PROOFS
OF PROPOSITIONS 89 7 APPLIED WELFARE ECONOMICS WITH BOUNDEDLY RATIONAL
EXPECTATIONS 91 7.1 INTRODUCTION 91 7.2 REMOTE SENSING 92 7.3
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF THE PROVISION OF REMOTELY SENSED DATA 94 7.4
HOW CAN WELFARE LOSSES BE AVOIDED? 96 7.5 CONCLUSIONS 98 8 PATTERN
RECOGNITION AS THE BASIS OF EXPECTATIONS 100 8.1 INTRODUCTION 100 8.2 A
MODEL OF PATTERN USE 101 8.3 THE EXPERIMENT 102 8.4 EVALUATING THE
RESPONSES 104 8.5 ESTIMATES OF INDIVIDUAL PATTERN USE 105 8.6 PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND MARKET PSYCHOLOGY 108 8.7 CONCLUSIONS 111 CONTENTS VII
APPENDIX 8.1 INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE EXPERIMENT 113 APPENDIX 8.2 THE
EXPERIMENTAL SERIES AND MEASURES OF D\ L 116 9 PATTERN-BASED
EXPECTATIONS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS 118 9.1 INTRODUCTION 118 9.2 THE
EXPERIMENT 119 9.3 EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS 122 9.4 HOW WELL DO SIMPLE
EXTRAPOLATIVE SCHEMES EXPLAIN THE ELICITED EXPECTATIONS? 125 9.5 A
SIMULATED ASSET MARKET AND TESTS OF REALISM 133 9.6 CONCLUSIONS 136
APPENDIX 9.1 INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE EXPERIMENT 139 APPENDIX 9.2 CRITERION
VALUES AND RANKINGS FOR ALL PATTERNS PRESENTED 142 10 ANTICIPATION AND
COORDINATION FAILURES 145 10.1 INTRODUCTION 145 10.2 THE GAME AND THE
TWO TREATMENTS 147 10.3 OPTIMAL STRATEGIES 151 10.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FINDINGS 154 10.5 CONCLUSIONS 158 APPENDIX 10.1 OUTLINE OF COMPUTER
PROGRAM 160 APPENDIX 10.2 PROOF THAT OUTLINED STRATEGY IS OPTIMAL 162 11
MONEY, TRANSACTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS 164 11.1 INTRODUCTION 164 11.2 A
PLAYABLE MONETARY ECONOMY 165 11.3 EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS 167 11.4
CONCLUSIONS 174 APPENDIX 11.1 INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE EXPERIMENT 177
REFERENCES 180 INDEX 193 PPN: 257964428 TITEL: EXPECTATIONS, RATIONALITY
AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE : MODELS AND EXPERIMENTS / TOBIAS ROETHELI. -
CHELTENHAM[U.A.] : EDWARD ELGAR, 2007 ISBN: 1-84542-742-4;
978-1-84542-742-9 BIBLIOGRAPHISCHER DATENSATZ IM SWB-VERBUND |
any_adam_object | 1 |
any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
author | Rötheli, Tobias F. |
author_facet | Rötheli, Tobias F. |
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author_sort | Rötheli, Tobias F. |
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callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
callnumber-label | HB3731 |
callnumber-raw | HB3731 |
callnumber-search | HB3731 |
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dewey-full | 330.01/9 |
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dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
dewey-raw | 330.01/9 |
dewey-search | 330.01/9 |
dewey-sort | 3330.01 19 |
dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
format | Book |
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isbn | 9781845427429 |
language | English |
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spelling | Rötheli, Tobias F. Verfasser aut Expectations, rationality, and economic performance models and experiments Tobias F. Rötheli Cheltenham, UK [u.a.] Elgar 2007 X, 202 S. Ill., graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Mathematisches Modell Rational expectations (Economic theory) Mathematical models Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftstheorie (DE-588)4079351-5 gnd rswk-swf Rational Choice (DE-588)4274923-2 gnd rswk-swf Rationale Erwartung (DE-588)4121553-9 gnd rswk-swf Eingeschränkte Rationalität (DE-588)4403080-0 gnd rswk-swf Rationale Erwartung (DE-588)4121553-9 s Wirtschaftstheorie (DE-588)4079351-5 s DE-604 Eingeschränkte Rationalität (DE-588)4403080-0 s Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 s Rational Choice (DE-588)4274923-2 s DE-188 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip075/2006037095.html Table of contents only SWB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015596043&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
spellingShingle | Rötheli, Tobias F. Expectations, rationality, and economic performance models and experiments Mathematisches Modell Rational expectations (Economic theory) Mathematical models Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd Wirtschaftstheorie (DE-588)4079351-5 gnd Rational Choice (DE-588)4274923-2 gnd Rationale Erwartung (DE-588)4121553-9 gnd Eingeschränkte Rationalität (DE-588)4403080-0 gnd |
subject_GND | (DE-588)4113448-5 (DE-588)4079351-5 (DE-588)4274923-2 (DE-588)4121553-9 (DE-588)4403080-0 |
title | Expectations, rationality, and economic performance models and experiments |
title_auth | Expectations, rationality, and economic performance models and experiments |
title_exact_search | Expectations, rationality, and economic performance models and experiments |
title_exact_search_txtP | Expectations, rationality, and economic performance models and experiments |
title_full | Expectations, rationality, and economic performance models and experiments Tobias F. Rötheli |
title_fullStr | Expectations, rationality, and economic performance models and experiments Tobias F. Rötheli |
title_full_unstemmed | Expectations, rationality, and economic performance models and experiments Tobias F. Rötheli |
title_short | Expectations, rationality, and economic performance |
title_sort | expectations rationality and economic performance models and experiments |
title_sub | models and experiments |
topic | Mathematisches Modell Rational expectations (Economic theory) Mathematical models Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd Wirtschaftstheorie (DE-588)4079351-5 gnd Rational Choice (DE-588)4274923-2 gnd Rationale Erwartung (DE-588)4121553-9 gnd Eingeschränkte Rationalität (DE-588)4403080-0 gnd |
topic_facet | Mathematisches Modell Rational expectations (Economic theory) Mathematical models Entscheidungsverhalten Wirtschaftstheorie Rational Choice Rationale Erwartung Eingeschränkte Rationalität |
url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip075/2006037095.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015596043&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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