Advances in decision analysis: from foundations to applications
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2007
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Table of contents only Publisher description Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 623 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780521863681 0521863686 9780521682305 0521682304 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Advances in decision analysis |b from foundations to applications |c ed. by Ward Edwards ... |
| 250 | |a 1. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge [u.a.] |b Cambridge Univ. Press |c 2007 | |
| 300 | |a XV, 623 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
| 650 | 7 | |a Besliskunde |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Prise de décision | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Systèmes d'aide à la décision | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Théorie de la décision | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Decision making | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804136323331653632 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Contributors page
ix
Preface
xi
1
Introduction
1
Ward Edwards, Ralph
F
Miles, Jr., and Detlofvon Winterfeldt
PART I. HISTORY AND FOUNDATIONS OF DECISION ANALYSIS
2
The Emergence of Decision Analysis
13
Ralph
F
Miles, Jr.
3
The Foundations of Decision Analysis Revisited
32
Ronald A. Howard
4
Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started
and Evolved
57
Howard Raiffa
5
Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards to Decision
Analysis and Behavioral Research
71
Lawrence D. Phillips and Detlofvon Winterfeldt
PART II. STRUCTURING DECISION PROBLEMS
6
Defining a Decision Analytic Structure
81
Detlofvon Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards
7
Developing Objectives and Attributes
104
Ralph L. Keeney
PART III. PROBABILITIES AND
BAYES
NETS
8
Eliciting Probabilities from Experts
129
Stephen C.
Hora
9
Aggregating Probability Distributions
154
Robert T. Clemen and Robert L.
Winkler
10
Model Building with Belief Networks and Influence Diagrams
177
Ross D. Shachter
11
A Bayesian Approach to Learning Causal Networks
202
David Heckerman
vi
Contents
PART IV. UTILITIES
12
Utility and Risk Preferences
221
David E. Bell
13
Practical Value Models
232
Ralph L. Keeney and Detlof
von Winterfeldt
14
Extensions of the Subjective Expected Utility Model
253
Robert F.
Nau
PARTV. RISK ANALYSIS
15
Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Engineered Systems
279
Vicki M. Bier and Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
16
The Engineering Risk-Analysis Method and Some Applications
302
M. Elisabeth
Paté-Cornell
17
Health Risk Analysis for Risk-Management Decision-Making
325
Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
PART VI. DECISION ANALYSIS IN A BEHAVIORAL AND
ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT
18
What Have We Learned from Our Mistakes?
351
Barbara
Meilers
and Connson Locke
19
Decision Conferencing
375
Lawrence D. Phillips
20
Resource Allocation Decisions
400
Don
N.
Kleinmuntz
21
From Decision Analysis to the Decision Organization
419
David Matheson and James E. Matheson
22
Building Decision Competency in Organizations
451
Carl S. Spetzler
23
Negotiation Analysis: Between Decisions and Games
469
James K. Sebenius
PART
VII.
APPLICATIONS OF DECISION ANALYSIS
24
The Adoption of Multiattribute Utility Theory for the Evaluation
of Plutonium Disposition Options in the United States and Russia
489
John C. Butler, Alexander
N.
Chebeskov, James S. Dyer,
Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia, and Vladimir I. Oussanov
25
Choosing a Tritium Supply Technology for Nuclear Weapons:
Reflections on a Controversial Decision Analysis
514
Detlof
von
Winterfeldt
26
Applications of Decision Analysis to the Military Systems
Acquisition Process
539
Dennis M. Buede and Terry A. Bresnick
Contents
vii
27
Balancing Environmental and Operational Objectives in Nuclear
Refueling Strategies
564
Phillip
С
Beccue and Jeffrey S. Stonebraker
28
Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications
582
Donald L.
Keef
er,
Craig
W.
Kirkwood, and James L. Corner
Index
611
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
List of Contributors page
ix
Preface
xi
1
Introduction
1
Ward Edwards, Ralph
F
Miles, Jr., and Detlofvon Winterfeldt
PART I. HISTORY AND FOUNDATIONS OF DECISION ANALYSIS
2
The Emergence of Decision Analysis
13
Ralph
F
Miles, Jr.
3
The Foundations of Decision Analysis Revisited
32
Ronald A. Howard
4
Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started
and Evolved
57
Howard Raiffa
5
Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards to Decision
Analysis and Behavioral Research
71
Lawrence D. Phillips and Detlofvon Winterfeldt
PART II. STRUCTURING DECISION PROBLEMS
6
Defining a Decision Analytic Structure
81
Detlofvon Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards
7
Developing Objectives and Attributes
104
Ralph L. Keeney
PART III. PROBABILITIES AND
BAYES
NETS
8
Eliciting Probabilities from Experts
129
Stephen C.
Hora
9
Aggregating Probability Distributions
154
Robert T. Clemen and Robert L.
Winkler
10
Model Building with Belief Networks and Influence Diagrams
177
Ross D. Shachter
11
A Bayesian Approach to Learning Causal Networks
202
David Heckerman
vi
Contents
PART IV. UTILITIES
12
Utility and Risk Preferences
221
David E. Bell
13
Practical Value Models
232
Ralph L. Keeney and Detlof
von Winterfeldt
14
Extensions of the Subjective Expected Utility Model
253
Robert F.
Nau
PARTV. RISK ANALYSIS
15
Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Engineered Systems
279
Vicki M. Bier and Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
16
The Engineering Risk-Analysis Method and Some Applications
302
M. Elisabeth
Paté-Cornell
17
Health Risk Analysis for Risk-Management Decision-Making
325
Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
PART VI. DECISION ANALYSIS IN A BEHAVIORAL AND
ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT
18
What Have We Learned from Our Mistakes?
351
Barbara
Meilers
and Connson Locke
19
Decision Conferencing
375
Lawrence D. Phillips
20
Resource Allocation Decisions
400
Don
N.
Kleinmuntz
21
From Decision Analysis to the Decision Organization
419
David Matheson and James E. Matheson
22
Building Decision Competency in Organizations
451
Carl S. Spetzler
23
Negotiation Analysis: Between Decisions and Games
469
James K. Sebenius
PART
VII.
APPLICATIONS OF DECISION ANALYSIS
24
The Adoption of Multiattribute Utility Theory for the Evaluation
of Plutonium Disposition Options in the United States and Russia
489
John C. Butler, Alexander
N.
Chebeskov, James S. Dyer,
Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia, and Vladimir I. Oussanov
25
Choosing a Tritium Supply Technology for Nuclear Weapons:
Reflections on a Controversial Decision Analysis
514
Detlof
von
Winterfeldt
26
Applications of Decision Analysis to the Military Systems
Acquisition Process
539
Dennis M. Buede and Terry A. Bresnick
Contents
vii
27
Balancing Environmental and Operational Objectives in Nuclear
Refueling Strategies
564
Phillip
С
Beccue and Jeffrey S. Stonebraker
28
Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications
582
Donald L.
Keef
er,
Craig
W.
Kirkwood, and James L. Corner
Index
611 |
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| spelling | Advances in decision analysis from foundations to applications ed. by Ward Edwards ... 1. ed. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2007 XV, 623 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Besliskunde gtt Prise de décision Systèmes d'aide à la décision Théorie de la décision Decision making Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s DE-604 Edwards, Ward 1927-2005 Sonstige (DE-588)170175286 oth http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0618/2006025610.html Table of contents only http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0668/2006025610-d.html Publisher description Digitalisierung UB Bamberg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015514250&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Advances in decision analysis from foundations to applications Besliskunde gtt Prise de décision Systèmes d'aide à la décision Théorie de la décision Decision making Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4138606-1 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Advances in decision analysis from foundations to applications |
| title_auth | Advances in decision analysis from foundations to applications |
| title_exact_search | Advances in decision analysis from foundations to applications |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Advances in decision analysis from foundations to applications |
| title_full | Advances in decision analysis from foundations to applications ed. by Ward Edwards ... |
| title_fullStr | Advances in decision analysis from foundations to applications ed. by Ward Edwards ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Advances in decision analysis from foundations to applications ed. by Ward Edwards ... |
| title_short | Advances in decision analysis |
| title_sort | advances in decision analysis from foundations to applications |
| title_sub | from foundations to applications |
| topic | Besliskunde gtt Prise de décision Systèmes d'aide à la décision Théorie de la décision Decision making Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Besliskunde Prise de décision Systèmes d'aide à la décision Théorie de la décision Decision making Entscheidungstheorie Aufsatzsammlung |
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