Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices: a statistical approach
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Chichester [u.a.]
Wiley
2006
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Table of contents only Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XI, 178 S. zahlr. graph. Darst., Kt. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) |
| ISBN: | 047005753X 9780470057537 |
Internformat
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| 100 | 1 | |a Weron, Rafał |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1013710436 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices |b a statistical approach |c Rafał Weron |
| 264 | 1 | |a Chichester [u.a.] |b Wiley |c 2006 | |
| 300 | |a XI, 178 S. |b zahlr. graph. Darst., Kt. |e 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) | ||
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| 650 | 7 | |a Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de |2 ram | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques |2 ram | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de |2 ram | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques |2 ram | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Electric power consumption |x Forecasting |x Statistical methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Electric utilities |x Rates |x Forecasting |x Statistical methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Electric power consumption |x Forecasting |x Statistical methods |v Case studies | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Electric utilities |x Rates |x Forecasting |x Statistical methods |v Case studies | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS PREFACE IX ACKNOWLEDGMENTS XIII 1 COMPLEX ELECTRICITY MARKETS 1
1.1 LIBERALIZATION 1 1.2 THE MARKETPLACE 3 1.2.1 POWER POOLS AND POWER
EXCHANGES 3 1.2.2 NODAL AND ZONAL PRICING 6 1.2.3 MARKET STRUCTURE 7
1.2.4 TRADED PRODUCTS , 7 1.3 EUROPE 9 1.3.1 THE ENGLAND AND WALES
ELECTRICITY MARKET . 9 1.3.2 THE NORDIC MARKET 11 1.3.3 PRICE SETTING AT
NORD POOL 11 1.3.4 CONTINENTAL EUROPE . 13 1.4 NORTH AMERICA 18 1.4.1
PJM INTERCONNECTION 19 1.4.2 CALIFORNIA AND THE ELECTRICITY CRISIS 20
1.4.3 ALBERTA AND ONTARIO 21 1.5 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND 22 1.6
SUMMARY , 23 1.7 FURTHER READING 23 2 STYLIZED FACTS OF ELECTRICITY
LOADS AND PRICES 25 2.1 INTRODUCTION 25 2.2 PRICE SPIKES 25 2.2.1 CASE
STUDY: THE JUNE 1998 CINERGY PRICE SPIKE 28 2.2.2 WHEN SUPPLY MEETS
DEMAND 29 2.2.3 WHAT IS CAUSING THE SPIKES? 32 2.2.4 THE DEFINITION 32
VI CONTENTS 2.3 SEASONALLY 32 2.3.1 MEASURING SERIAL CORRELATION 36
2.3.2 SPECTRAL ANALYSIS AND THE PERIODOGRAM 39 2.3.3 CASE STUDY:
SEASONAL BEHAVIOR OF ELECTRICITY PRICES AND LOADS 40 2.4 SEASONAL
DECOMPOSITION 41 2.4.1 DIFFERENCING 42 2.4.2 MEAN OR MEDIAN WEEK 44
2.4.3 MOVING AVERAGE TECHNIQUE 44 2.4.4 ANNUAL SEASONALITY AND SPECTRAL
DECOMPOSITION 44 2.4.5 ROLLING VOLATILITY TECHNIQUE 45 2.4.6 CASE STUDY:
ROLLING VOLATILITY IN PRACTICE 46 2.4.7 WAVELET DECOMPOSITION 47 2.4.8
CASE STUDY: WAVELET FILTERING OF NORD POOL HOURLY SYSTEM PRICES 49 2.5
MEAN REVERSION 49 2.5.1 R/S ANALYSIS 50 2.5.2 DETRENDED FLUCTUATION
ANALYSIS 52 2.5.3 PERIODOGRAM REGRESSION 53 2.5.4 AVERAGE WAVELET
COEFFICIENT 53 2.5.5 CASE STUDY: ANTI-PERSISTENCE OF ELECTRICITY PRICES
54 2.6 DISTRIBUTIONS OF ELECTRICITY PRICES 56 2.6.1 STABLE DISTRIBUTIONS
56 2.6.2 HYPERBOLIC DISTRIBUTIONS 58 2.6.3 CASE STUDY: DISTRIBUTION OF
EEX SPOT PRICES 59 2.6.4 FURTHER EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AND POSSIBLE
APPLICATIONS 62 2.7 SUMMARY 64 2.8 FURTHER READING 64 3 MODELING AND
FORECASTING ELECTRICITY LOADS 67 3.1 INTRODUCTION 67 3.2 FACTORS
AFFECTING LOAD PATTERNS 69 3.2.1 CASE STUDY: DEALING WITH MISSING VALUES
AND OUTLIERS 69 3.2.2 TIME FACTORS 71 3.2.3 WEATHER CONDITIONS 71 3.2.4
CASE STUDY: CALIFORNIA WEATHER VS LOAD 72 3.2.5 OTHER FACTORS 74 3.3
OVERVIEW OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-BASED METHODS 75 3.4 STATISTICAL
METHODS 78 3.4.1 SIMILAR-DAY METHOD . 79 3.4.2 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING 79
3.4.3 REGRESSION METHODS 81 3.4.4 AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL 82 3.4.5
AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE MODEL 83 3.4.6 ARM A MODEL IDENTIFICATION
84 3.4.7 CASE STUDY: MODELING DAILY LOADS IN CALIFORNIA 86 CONTENTS VII
3.4.8 AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL 95 3.4.9 TIME
SERIES MODELS WITH EXOGENOUS VARIABLES 97 3.4.10 CASE STUDY: MODELING
DAILY LOADS IN CALIFORNIA WITH EXOGENOUS VARIABLES 98 3.5 SUMMARY 100
3.6 FURTHER READING 100 4 MODELING AND FORECASTING ELECTRICITY PRICES
101 4.1 INTRODUCTION 101 4.2 OVERVIEW OF MODELING APPROACHES 102 4.3
STATISTICAL METHODS AND PRICE FORECASTING 106 4.3.1 EXOGENOUS FACTORS
106 4.3.2 SPIKE PREPROCESSING 107 4.3.3 HOW TO ASSESS THE QUALITY OF
PRICE FORECASTS 107 4.3.4 ARMA-TYPE MODELS 109 4.3.5 TIME SERIES MODELS
WITH EXOGENOUS VARIABLES 111 4.3.6 AUTOREGRESSIVE GARCH MODELS 113 4.3.7
CASE STUDY: FORECASTING HOURLY CALPX SPOT PRICES WITH LINEAR MODELS 114
4.3.8 CASE STUDY: IS SPIKE PREPROCESSING ADVANTAGEOUS? 125 4.3.9
REGIME-SWITCHING MODELS 127 4.3.10 CALIBRATION OF REGIME-SWITCHING
MODELS 132 4.3.11 CASE STUDY: FORECASTING HOURLY CALPX SPOT PRICES WITH
REGIME-SWITCHING MODELS 132 4.3.12 INTERVAL FORECASTS 136 4.4
QUANTITATIVE MODELS AND DERIVATIVES VALUATION 136 4.4.1 JUMP-DIFFUSION
MODELS 137 4.4.2 CALIBRATION OF JUMP-DIFFUSION MODELS 139 4.4.3 CASE
STUDY: A MEAN-REVERTING JUMP-DIFFUSION MODEL FOR NORD POOL SPOT PRICES
140 4.4.4 HYBRID MODELS 143 4.4.5 CASE STUDY: REGIME-SWITCHING MODELS
FOR NORD POOL SPOT PRICES 144 4.4.6 HEDGING AND THE USE OF DERIVATIVES
147 4.4.7 DERIVATIVES PRICING AND THE MARKET PRICE OF RISK 148 4.4.8
CASE STUDY: ASIAN-STYLE ELECTRICITY OPTIONS 150 4.5 SUMMARY 153 4.6
FURTHER READING 154 BIBLIOGRAPHY 157 SUBJECT INDEX 171
|
| adam_txt |
CONTENTS PREFACE IX ACKNOWLEDGMENTS XIII 1 COMPLEX ELECTRICITY MARKETS 1
1.1 LIBERALIZATION 1 1.2 THE MARKETPLACE 3 1.2.1 POWER POOLS AND POWER
EXCHANGES 3 1.2.2 NODAL AND ZONAL PRICING 6 1.2.3 MARKET STRUCTURE 7
1.2.4 TRADED PRODUCTS , 7 1.3 EUROPE 9 1.3.1 THE ENGLAND AND WALES
ELECTRICITY MARKET . 9 1.3.2 THE NORDIC MARKET 11 1.3.3 PRICE SETTING AT
NORD POOL 11 1.3.4 CONTINENTAL EUROPE . 13 1.4 NORTH AMERICA 18 1.4.1
PJM INTERCONNECTION 19 1.4.2 CALIFORNIA AND THE ELECTRICITY CRISIS 20
1.4.3 ALBERTA AND ONTARIO 21 1.5 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND 22 1.6
SUMMARY , 23 1.7 FURTHER READING 23 2 STYLIZED FACTS OF ELECTRICITY
LOADS AND PRICES 25 2.1 INTRODUCTION 25 2.2 PRICE SPIKES 25 2.2.1 CASE
STUDY: THE JUNE 1998 CINERGY PRICE SPIKE 28 2.2.2 WHEN SUPPLY MEETS
DEMAND 29 2.2.3 WHAT IS CAUSING THE SPIKES? 32 2.2.4 THE DEFINITION 32
VI CONTENTS 2.3 SEASONALLY 32 2.3.1 MEASURING SERIAL CORRELATION 36
2.3.2 SPECTRAL ANALYSIS AND THE PERIODOGRAM 39 2.3.3 CASE STUDY:
SEASONAL BEHAVIOR OF ELECTRICITY PRICES AND LOADS 40 2.4 SEASONAL
DECOMPOSITION 41 2.4.1 DIFFERENCING 42 2.4.2 MEAN OR MEDIAN WEEK 44
2.4.3 MOVING AVERAGE TECHNIQUE 44 2.4.4 ANNUAL SEASONALITY AND SPECTRAL
DECOMPOSITION 44 2.4.5 ROLLING VOLATILITY TECHNIQUE 45 2.4.6 CASE STUDY:
ROLLING VOLATILITY IN PRACTICE 46 2.4.7 WAVELET DECOMPOSITION 47 2.4.8
CASE STUDY: WAVELET FILTERING OF NORD POOL HOURLY SYSTEM PRICES 49 2.5
MEAN REVERSION 49 2.5.1 R/S ANALYSIS 50 2.5.2 DETRENDED FLUCTUATION
ANALYSIS 52 2.5.3 PERIODOGRAM REGRESSION 53 2.5.4 AVERAGE WAVELET
COEFFICIENT 53 2.5.5 CASE STUDY: ANTI-PERSISTENCE OF ELECTRICITY PRICES
54 2.6 DISTRIBUTIONS OF ELECTRICITY PRICES 56 2.6.1 STABLE DISTRIBUTIONS
56 2.6.2 HYPERBOLIC DISTRIBUTIONS 58 2.6.3 CASE STUDY: DISTRIBUTION OF
EEX SPOT PRICES 59 2.6.4 FURTHER EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AND POSSIBLE
APPLICATIONS 62 2.7 SUMMARY 64 2.8 FURTHER READING 64 3 MODELING AND
FORECASTING ELECTRICITY LOADS 67 3.1 INTRODUCTION 67 3.2 FACTORS
AFFECTING LOAD PATTERNS 69 3.2.1 CASE STUDY: DEALING WITH MISSING VALUES
AND OUTLIERS 69 3.2.2 TIME FACTORS 71 3.2.3 WEATHER CONDITIONS 71 3.2.4
CASE STUDY: CALIFORNIA WEATHER VS LOAD 72 3.2.5 OTHER FACTORS 74 3.3
OVERVIEW OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-BASED METHODS 75 3.4 STATISTICAL
METHODS 78 3.4.1 SIMILAR-DAY METHOD . 79 3.4.2 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING 79
3.4.3 REGRESSION METHODS ' 81 3.4.4 AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL 82 3.4.5
AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE MODEL 83 3.4.6 ARM A MODEL IDENTIFICATION
84 3.4.7 CASE STUDY: MODELING DAILY LOADS IN CALIFORNIA 86 CONTENTS VII
3.4.8 AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL 95 3.4.9 TIME
SERIES MODELS WITH EXOGENOUS VARIABLES 97 3.4.10 CASE STUDY: MODELING
DAILY LOADS IN CALIFORNIA WITH EXOGENOUS VARIABLES 98 3.5 SUMMARY 100
3.6 FURTHER READING 100 4 MODELING AND FORECASTING ELECTRICITY PRICES
101 4.1 INTRODUCTION 101 4.2 OVERVIEW OF MODELING APPROACHES 102 4.3
STATISTICAL METHODS AND PRICE FORECASTING 106 4.3.1 EXOGENOUS FACTORS
106 4.3.2 SPIKE PREPROCESSING 107 4.3.3 HOW TO ASSESS THE QUALITY OF
PRICE FORECASTS 107 4.3.4 ARMA-TYPE MODELS 109 4.3.5 TIME SERIES MODELS
WITH EXOGENOUS VARIABLES 111 4.3.6 AUTOREGRESSIVE GARCH MODELS 113 4.3.7
CASE STUDY: FORECASTING HOURLY CALPX SPOT PRICES WITH LINEAR MODELS 114
4.3.8 CASE STUDY: IS SPIKE PREPROCESSING ADVANTAGEOUS? 125 4.3.9
REGIME-SWITCHING MODELS 127 4.3.10 CALIBRATION OF REGIME-SWITCHING
MODELS 132 4.3.11 CASE STUDY: FORECASTING HOURLY CALPX SPOT PRICES WITH
REGIME-SWITCHING MODELS 132 4.3.12 INTERVAL FORECASTS 136 4.4
QUANTITATIVE MODELS AND DERIVATIVES VALUATION 136 4.4.1 JUMP-DIFFUSION
MODELS 137 4.4.2 CALIBRATION OF JUMP-DIFFUSION MODELS 139 4.4.3 CASE
STUDY: A MEAN-REVERTING JUMP-DIFFUSION MODEL FOR NORD POOL SPOT PRICES
140 4.4.4 HYBRID MODELS 143 4.4.5 CASE STUDY: REGIME-SWITCHING MODELS
FOR NORD POOL SPOT PRICES 144 4.4.6 HEDGING AND THE USE OF DERIVATIVES
147 4.4.7 DERIVATIVES PRICING AND THE MARKET PRICE OF RISK 148 4.4.8
CASE STUDY: ASIAN-STYLE ELECTRICITY OPTIONS 150 4.5 SUMMARY 153 4.6
FURTHER READING 154 BIBLIOGRAPHY 157 SUBJECT INDEX 171 |
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| genre | (DE-588)4522595-3 Fallstudiensammlung gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Fallstudiensammlung |
| id | DE-604.BV022269742 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T16:45:47Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:53:47Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 047005753X 9780470057537 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2006028050 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015480250 |
| oclc_num | 71173802 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-945 DE-91G DE-BY-TUM DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-11 DE-M382 DE-384 |
| owner_facet | DE-945 DE-91G DE-BY-TUM DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-11 DE-M382 DE-384 |
| physical | XI, 178 S. zahlr. graph. Darst., Kt. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publishDateSearch | 2006 |
| publishDateSort | 2006 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Weron, Rafał Verfasser (DE-588)1013710436 aut Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach Rafał Weron Chichester [u.a.] Wiley 2006 XI, 178 S. zahlr. graph. Darst., Kt. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 gnd rswk-swf Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 gnd rswk-swf Preismodell (DE-588)4175626-5 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4522595-3 Fallstudiensammlung gnd-content Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 s Preismodell (DE-588)4175626-5 s DE-604 Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s b DE-604 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0619/2006028050.html Table of contents only SWB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015480250&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Weron, Rafał Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 gnd Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 gnd Preismodell (DE-588)4175626-5 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4125931-2 (DE-588)4328181-3 (DE-588)4175626-5 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4522595-3 |
| title | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach |
| title_auth | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach |
| title_exact_search | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach |
| title_full | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach Rafał Weron |
| title_fullStr | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach Rafał Weron |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach Rafał Weron |
| title_short | Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices |
| title_sort | modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach |
| title_sub | a statistical approach |
| topic | Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de ram Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques ram Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Preisentwicklung (DE-588)4125931-2 gnd Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 gnd Preismodell (DE-588)4175626-5 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de Services de l'électricité - Tarifs - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques - Cas, Études de Électricité - Consommation - Prévisions - Méthodes statistiques Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Electric power consumption Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Electric utilities Rates Forecasting Statistical methods Case studies Preisentwicklung Elektrizitätsmarkt Preismodell Prognose Fallstudiensammlung |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0619/2006028050.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015480250&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT weronrafał modelingandforecastingelectricityloadsandpricesastatisticalapproach |