Demographic change in Germany: the economic and fiscal consequences
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin [u.a.]
Springer
2008
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 216 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9783540681359 3540681353 |
Internformat
MARC
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804136252168994816 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Contributing Authors
..............................................................................
XIII
Consequences of Demographic Change in Germany:
An Introduction
.........................................................................................1
Helmut Seitz, Martin Werding
1
Motivation for this Book
.....................................................................1
2
The Contributions: An Overview
........................................................3
Demographic Change in Germany
...........................................................9
Charlotte
Höhn, Ralf
Mai, Frank Micheel
1
Adressing the Issue
..............................................................................9
2
The Demographic Development in Germany
....................................10
2.1
Trends in Fertility
.......................................................................11
2.2
Trends in Mortality
.....................................................................13
2.3
Migration Dynamics
...................................................................14
2.4
Demographic Balance
................................................................15
3
Future Trends Until
2050..................................................................17
3.1
Assumptions of the
1
Iі Co-ordinated Population
Prospects
.....................................................................................17
3.2
Population Decline
.....................................................................18
3.3
Population Aging
........................................................................18
3.4
Can Population Aging Be Reversed by Demographic
Instruments?
...............................................................................20
4
Regional Aspects of Population Dynamics
.......................................22
4.1
Fertility and Mortality
................................................................23
4.2
Internal Migration
.......................................................................25
4.3
Regional Patterns of Demographic Change
...............................27
4.4
Outlook: Growing or Diminishing Regional Disparities
............28
5
Implications for Society, Economy, and Policy Makers:
Challenge or Catastrophe?
.................................................................30
References
.............................................................................................32
X
Contents
The Effects of Aging on Labor Markets and Economic Growth
.........35
Willi Leibfritz,
Werner Roeger
1
Introduction
.......................................................................................35
2
Main Determinants of Economic Growth
.........................................36
2.1
Some Methodological Observations
..........................................36
2.2
Past Growth Trends
....................................................................38
3
Future Demographics and Growth
....................................................40
3.1
Impact Through Labor Supply
...................................................41
3.2
Impact Through Labor Productivity
...........................................43
4
Long-Term Growth Scenarios
...........................................................50
4.1
Growth Scenarios by the
OECD................................................51
4.2
Growth Scenarios by the
EU
Commission
.................................55
5
Conclusions
.......................................................................................61
References
.............................................................................................63
The Impact of Global Aging on Capital Markets and Housing
...........65
Axel
Börsch-Supan
1
Introduction
.......................................................................................65
2
The Asset Meltdown Debate
.............................................................66
3
Aging and the Markets for Productive Capital
..................................69
3.1
A Model of Overlapping Generations:
The MEA-OLGA Model
............................................................69
3.2
The Development of Household Savings
...................................73
3.3
Trends in Returns on Capital
......................................................76
3.4
Diversification Effects of Global Capital Markets
.....................78
4
Aging and Housing Markets
..............................................................80
5
Summary and Outlook
.......................................................................85
References
.............................................................................................87
Social Insurance: How to Pay for Pensions and Health Care?
............89
Martin Werding
1
Introduction
.......................................................................................89
2
Methodology
......................................................................................91
3
Assumptions and Intermediate Results
..............................................94
4
Projections for Individual Branches of Social Insurance
...................97
4.1
The Statutory Pension Scheme
...................................................97
4.2
Public Health Insurance
............................................................103
4.3
Public
Long-Term Care
Insurance
...........................................109
4.4
Unemployment Insurance
.........................................................111
5
Sustainability of the Social Insurance System
.................................112
5.1
Aging and General Government Fiscal Balances
.....................113
5.2
Implicit Social Insurance Debt
.................................................116
Contents
XI
5.3 The EPC s Sustainability Gap ..............................................120
6
Policy Options.................................................................................
122
References
...........................................................................................125
The Impact of Demographic Change on Fiscal Policy in
Germany
.................................................................................................129
Helmut Seitz
1
Introduction
.....................................................................................129
2
Institutional Framework
..................................................................130
3
Methodology
....................................................................................137
4
Data and Empirical Results
.............................................................145
4.1
Estimating Age-Cost Profiles
...................................................145
4.2
The Impact of Demographic Change
on Public Expenditures,
2004-2030.........................................150
4.3
Building a More Complete Model
............................................152
4.4
Simulation Results
....................................................................157
5
Summary and Conclusions
..............................................................161
References
...........................................................................................162
Education and Fertility in Germany
....................................................165
Michaela Kreyenfeld,
Dirk Konietzka
1
Introduction
.....................................................................................165
2
Education and Fertility
....................................................................166
2.1
Theoretical Considerations
.......................................................166
2.2
Germany s Socio-Political Context
..........................................169
3
Data
..................................................................................................171
4
Descriptive Results
..........................................................................172
5
Analysis of the Event-History Model
..............................................176
5.1
Transition to First Births
..........................................................176
5.2
Transitions to the Second and Third Child
...............................178
6
Conclusions
.....................................................................................180
References
...........................................................................................183
Perspectives on the Political Governance of Demographic
Change
....................................................................................................189
Johannes Meier
1
Introduction
.....................................................................................189
2
Demographic Challenges in Germany
.............................................190
2.1
Shrinkage
..................................................................................190
2.2
Aging
........................................................................................191
2.3
Heterogeneity
...........................................................................192
3
Challenges for Governance of Demographic Change
.....................195
XII Contents
4
Budget
Consolidation as a
Core
Challenge
.....................................196
5
Key Factors of Success for Good Governance of
Demographic Change
......................................................................199
5.1
Experiences from Other Countries
...........................................199
5.2
Implications for Germany
........................................................200
6
Conclusion
.......................................................................................201
Subject Index
...........................................................................................205
Name Index
..............................................................................................213
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Contributing Authors
.
XIII
Consequences of Demographic Change in Germany:
An Introduction
.1
Helmut Seitz, Martin Werding
1
Motivation for this Book
.1
2
The Contributions: An Overview
.3
Demographic Change in Germany
.9
Charlotte
Höhn, Ralf
Mai, Frank Micheel
1
Adressing the Issue
.9
2
The Demographic Development in Germany
.10
2.1
Trends in Fertility
.11
2.2
Trends in Mortality
.13
2.3
Migration Dynamics
.14
2.4
Demographic Balance
.15
3
Future Trends Until
2050.17
3.1
Assumptions of the
1
Iі Co-ordinated Population
Prospects
.17
3.2
Population Decline
.18
3.3
Population Aging
.18
3.4
Can Population Aging Be Reversed by Demographic
Instruments?
.20
4
Regional Aspects of Population Dynamics
.22
4.1
Fertility and Mortality
.23
4.2
Internal Migration
.25
4.3
Regional Patterns of Demographic Change
.27
4.4
Outlook: Growing or Diminishing Regional Disparities
.28
5
Implications for Society, Economy, and Policy Makers:
Challenge or Catastrophe?
.30
References
.32
X
Contents
The Effects of Aging on Labor Markets and Economic Growth
.35
Willi Leibfritz,
Werner Roeger
1
Introduction
.35
2
Main Determinants of Economic Growth
.36
2.1
Some Methodological Observations
.36
2.2
Past Growth Trends
.38
3
Future Demographics and Growth
.40
3.1
Impact Through Labor Supply
.41
3.2
Impact Through Labor Productivity
.43
4
Long-Term Growth Scenarios
.50
4.1
Growth Scenarios by the
OECD.51
4.2
Growth Scenarios by the
EU
Commission
.55
5
Conclusions
.61
References
.63
The Impact of Global Aging on Capital Markets and Housing
.65
Axel
Börsch-Supan
1
Introduction
.65
2
The Asset Meltdown Debate
.66
3
Aging and the Markets for Productive Capital
.69
3.1
A Model of Overlapping Generations:
The MEA-OLGA Model
.69
3.2
The Development of Household Savings
.73
3.3
Trends in Returns on Capital
.76
3.4
Diversification Effects of Global Capital Markets
.78
4
Aging and Housing Markets
.80
5
Summary and Outlook
.85
References
.87
Social Insurance: How to Pay for Pensions and Health Care?
.89
Martin Werding
1
Introduction
.89
2
Methodology
.91
3
Assumptions and Intermediate Results
.94
4
Projections for Individual Branches of Social Insurance
.97
4.1
The Statutory Pension Scheme
.97
4.2
Public Health Insurance
.103
4.3
Public
Long-Term Care
Insurance
.109
4.4
Unemployment Insurance
.111
5
Sustainability of the Social Insurance System
.112
5.1
Aging and General Government Fiscal Balances
.113
5.2
Implicit Social Insurance Debt
.116
Contents
XI
5.3 The EPC's "Sustainability Gap".120
6
Policy Options.
122
References
.125
The Impact of Demographic Change on Fiscal Policy in
Germany
.129
Helmut Seitz
1
Introduction
.129
2
Institutional Framework
.130
3
Methodology
.137
4
Data and Empirical Results
.145
4.1
Estimating Age-Cost Profiles
.145
4.2
The Impact of Demographic Change
on Public Expenditures,
2004-2030.150
4.3
Building a More Complete Model
.152
4.4
Simulation Results
.157
5
Summary and Conclusions
.161
References
.162
Education and Fertility in Germany
.165
Michaela Kreyenfeld,
Dirk Konietzka
1
Introduction
.165
2
Education and Fertility
.166
2.1
Theoretical Considerations
.166
2.2
Germany's Socio-Political Context
.169
3
Data
.171
4
Descriptive Results
.172
5
Analysis of the Event-History Model
.176
5.1
Transition to First Births
.176
5.2
Transitions to the Second and Third Child
.178
6
Conclusions
.180
References
.183
Perspectives on the Political Governance of Demographic
Change
.189
Johannes Meier
1
Introduction
.189
2
Demographic Challenges in Germany
.190
2.1
Shrinkage
.190
2.2
Aging
.191
2.3
Heterogeneity
.192
3
Challenges for Governance of Demographic Change
.195
XII Contents
4
Budget
Consolidation as a
Core
Challenge
.196
5
Key Factors of Success for Good Governance of
Demographic Change
.199
5.1
Experiences from Other Countries
.199
5.2
Implications for Germany
.200
6
Conclusion
.201
Subject Index
.205
Name Index
.213 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
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| geographic_facet | Deutschland Germany Population Economic aspects |
| id | DE-604.BV022254658 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T16:40:39Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:53:26Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783540681359 3540681353 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015465393 |
| oclc_num | 229921607 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-M382 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-1049 DE-384 DE-20 DE-1051 DE-1102 DE-29 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-12 DE-703 DE-N2 DE-526 DE-188 DE-945 |
| owner_facet | DE-M382 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-1049 DE-384 DE-20 DE-1051 DE-1102 DE-29 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-12 DE-703 DE-N2 DE-526 DE-188 DE-945 |
| physical | XIV, 216 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publishDateSearch | 2008 |
| publishDateSort | 2008 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Demographic change in Germany the economic and fiscal consequences Ingrid Hamm ... (eds.) Berlin [u.a.] Springer 2008 XIV, 216 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Population aging Economic aspects Germany Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland Germany Population Economic aspects Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s DE-604 Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 s DE-188 Hamm, Ingrid Sonstige (DE-588)133688046 oth Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015465393&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Demographic change in Germany the economic and fiscal consequences Population aging Economic aspects Germany Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4124541-6 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4011882-4 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Demographic change in Germany the economic and fiscal consequences |
| title_auth | Demographic change in Germany the economic and fiscal consequences |
| title_exact_search | Demographic change in Germany the economic and fiscal consequences |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Demographic change in Germany the economic and fiscal consequences |
| title_full | Demographic change in Germany the economic and fiscal consequences Ingrid Hamm ... (eds.) |
| title_fullStr | Demographic change in Germany the economic and fiscal consequences Ingrid Hamm ... (eds.) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demographic change in Germany the economic and fiscal consequences Ingrid Hamm ... (eds.) |
| title_short | Demographic change in Germany |
| title_sort | demographic change in germany the economic and fiscal consequences |
| title_sub | the economic and fiscal consequences |
| topic | Population aging Economic aspects Germany Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Population aging Economic aspects Germany Altersstruktur Wirtschaftsentwicklung Bevölkerungsentwicklung Deutschland Germany Population Economic aspects Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015465393&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hammingrid demographicchangeingermanytheeconomicandfiscalconsequences |