Risk, ambiguity and decision:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York [u.a.]
Garland
2001
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Studies in philosophy
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Publisher description Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Zugl.: Harvard Univ., Diss., 1962 "Further readings on choice under uncertainty, beliefs and the Ellsberg paradox / compiled by Mark J. Machina": p. xxxix-xlviii -- Includes bibliographical references (p. 271 - 281) |
| Beschreibung: | LIII, 281 S. Ill. 24 cm |
| ISBN: | 9780815340225 0815340222 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Introduction by Isaac Levi ix
Further Readings xxxix
Acknowledgments xlix
Note to Reader li
Chapter 1
V Ambiguity and Risk 1
Vagueness, Confidence, and the Weight of Arguments 6
The Nature and Uses of Normative Theory 17
The Validation of Normative Propositions 22
The Utility Axioms as Norms 26
Normative Theory and Empirical Research 30
Chapter 2
The Bernoulli Proposition 37
A Possible Counterexample: Are there
Uncertainties that are Not Risks? 45
Vulgar Evaluations of Risk
Chapter 3
The Measurement of Definite Opinions 53
von Neumann Morgenstern Utilities 56
Probability as Price 57
Coherence and Definiteness of Probability Prices 65
Appendix to Chapter Three 75
On Making a Fool of Oneself:
The Requirement of Coherence 75
Acceptable Odds: Definite, Coherent, and Otherwise 81
via Book Title
Chapter 4
Opinions and Actions: Which Come First? 91
The Logic of Degrees of Belief 93
Opinions that Make Horse Races 97
Postulate 2: the Sure Thing Principle 106
Intuitive Probabilities and Vagueness 115
Appendix to Chapter Four 127
The Savage Postulates 127
The Koopman Axioms 129
Chapter 5
/ Uncertainties that are Not Risks 131
The Three Color Urn Example 137
Vulgar Evaluations of Ambiguity 143
Appendix to Chapter Five 151
Chapter 6
¦ Why Are Some Uncertainties Not Risks? 155
Decision Criteria for Complete Ignorance 158
Decision Criteria for Partial Ignorance 169
Chapter 7 179
The Restricted Hurwicz Criterion 179
The Restricted Bayes/Hurwicz Criterion 190
Boldness and Prudence: The n Color Urn Example 199
Ignorance, Probability, and Varieties of Gamblers 209
Chapter 8
Ambiguity and the Utility Axioms 219
The Pratt/Raiffa Criticisms and the Value of Randomization 230
Rubin s Axiom 246
Allais and the Sure Thing Principle
Winning at Russian Roulette 263
Bibliography 271
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
Introduction by Isaac Levi ix
Further Readings xxxix
Acknowledgments xlix
Note to Reader li
Chapter 1
V Ambiguity and Risk 1
Vagueness, Confidence, and the Weight of Arguments 6
The Nature and Uses of Normative Theory 17
The Validation of Normative Propositions 22
The Utility Axioms as Norms 26
Normative Theory and Empirical Research 30
Chapter 2
The Bernoulli Proposition 37
A Possible Counterexample: Are there
Uncertainties that are Not Risks? 45
Vulgar Evaluations of Risk
Chapter 3
The Measurement of Definite Opinions 53
von Neumann Morgenstern Utilities 56
Probability as Price 57
"Coherence" and "Definiteness" of Probability Prices 65
Appendix to Chapter Three 75
On Making a Fool of Oneself:
The Requirement of Coherence 75
Acceptable Odds: Definite, Coherent, and Otherwise 81
via Book Title
Chapter 4
Opinions and Actions: Which Come First? 91
The Logic of Degrees of Belief 93
Opinions that Make Horse Races 97
Postulate 2: the "Sure Thing Principle" 106
Intuitive Probabilities and "Vagueness" 115
Appendix to Chapter Four 127
The Savage Postulates 127
The Koopman Axioms 129
Chapter 5
/ Uncertainties that are Not Risks 131
The "Three Color Urn" Example 137
Vulgar Evaluations of Ambiguity 143
Appendix to Chapter Five 151
Chapter 6
¦ Why Are Some Uncertainties Not Risks? 155
Decision Criteria for "Complete Ignorance" 158
Decision Criteria for "Partial Ignorance" 169
Chapter 7 179
The "Restricted Hurwicz Criterion" 179
The "Restricted Bayes/Hurwicz Criterion" 190
Boldness and Prudence: The "n Color Urn" Example 199
Ignorance, Probability, and Varieties of Gamblers 209
Chapter 8
Ambiguity and the Utility Axioms 219
The Pratt/Raiffa Criticisms and the Value of Randomization 230
Rubin's Axiom 246
Allais and the Sure Thing Principle
Winning at Russian Roulette 263
Bibliography 271 |
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| spelling | Ellsberg, Daniel 1931-2023 Verfasser (DE-588)123344077 aut Risk, ambiguity and decision Daniel Ellsberg New York [u.a.] Garland 2001 LIII, 281 S. Ill. 24 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Studies in philosophy Zugl.: Harvard Univ., Diss., 1962 "Further readings on choice under uncertainty, beliefs and the Ellsberg paradox / compiled by Mark J. Machina": p. xxxix-xlviii -- Includes bibliographical references (p. 271 - 281) Toma de decisiones Decision making Statistical decision Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s DE-604 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0652/2002280602-d.html Publisher description HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015445096&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Ellsberg, Daniel 1931-2023 Risk, ambiguity and decision Toma de decisiones Decision making Statistical decision Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4138606-1 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Risk, ambiguity and decision |
| title_auth | Risk, ambiguity and decision |
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| title_full | Risk, ambiguity and decision Daniel Ellsberg |
| title_fullStr | Risk, ambiguity and decision Daniel Ellsberg |
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| title_sort | risk ambiguity and decision |
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