Klima Srbije:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Beograd
Zavod za Udžbenike i Nastavna Sredstva
2005
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. izd. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Beschreibung: | In kyrill. Schr., serb. |
| Beschreibung: | 212 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 8617122900 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Ducić, Vladan |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Klima Srbije |c Vladan Ducić ; Milan Radovanović |
| 250 | |a 1. izd. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Beograd |b Zavod za Udžbenike i Nastavna Sredstva |c 2005 | |
| 300 | |a 212 S. |b Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a In kyrill. Schr., serb. | ||
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Klima |0 (DE-588)4031170-3 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 651 | 4 | |a Serbia |x Climate | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Serbien |0 (DE-588)4054598-2 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a Serbien |0 (DE-588)4054598-2 |D g |
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| 689 | 0 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Radovanović, Milan |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m Digitalisierung BSBMuenchen |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015439738&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015439738&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Abstract |
| 940 | 1 | |n oe | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804136215380754432 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | САДРЖАЈ
ПРЕДГОВОР
........................................................ 5
УВОД
.............................................................. 9
Атмосфера
....................................................... 9
Време и клима
.................................................... 12
Развој метеоролошких осматрања
у
Србији
.......................... 12
ОПШТИ ГЕОГРАФСКИ И КЛИМАТСКИ УСЛОВИ
...................... 15
Положај
......................................................... 15
Рељеф...........................................................
15
Воде
-
мора,
језера
и реке
.......................................... 17
Вегетација.......................................................
18
Насеља
.......................................................... 19
АТМОСФЕРСКАЦИРКУЛАЦИЈА
..................................... 20
Атмосферска колебања
великих размера.............................
20
Циркулациони
процеси
средњих
и
малих
размера
..................... 22
ПРОСТОРНА РАСПОДЕЛА КЛИМАТСКИХ ЕЛЕМЕНАТА
............... 35
Ваздушни притисак
.............................................. 35
Температура ваздуха
.............................................. 43
Ветар
........................................................... 59
Облачност и
релативиа
влажност
................................... 69
Падавине
........................................................
72
РЕГИОНАЛНА
КЛИМАТОЛОГИЈАСРБИЈЕ
............................ 91
Класификације
климата...........................................
91
Типови климата
Србије
............................................ 92
KO
ЛЕБАЊЕ
КЛИМАТА
.............................................. 106
Природни фактори
колебања
климата
.................................. 106
Астрономски фактори
............................................. 107
Геофизички фактори
.............................................. 110
Нови
приступ
у
проучавању
атмосферских и климатских процеса
....... 112
Антропогени
утицаји
на време
и климу
................................. 119
Савремена климатска
колебаїьа на основу података
за Београд
.......... 119
Интензитет острва топлоте Београда
-
узроци и
његова
динамика
....... 122
Регионални аспекти
климатских,кдлебаїьа у
Србији
................... 128
Стање
и динамика озонског омотача
>. .,:. ..·....
я.
....................... 138
ПРОЈЕКЦИЈЕ
КЛИМЕ
СРБИЈЕ
У
БУДУЋНОСТИ
........................ 147
Осврт
на
пројекције
IPCC
.......................................... 147
Пројекције будуће емисије СО2
..................................... 153
Очекиване климатске промене у
Србији
............................. 160
ПОГОВОР
.......................................................... 165
ЛИТЕРАТУРА
....................................................... 175
SUMMARY..........................................................
180
ПРИЛОГ
........................................................... 191
SUMMARY
One of the starting points in this paper was to explain, using characteristic examples,
the influence of relief and atmospheric circulation upon differentiation of climate in Ser¬
bia. Other factors have not been separately taken into consideration because to date inves¬
tigations proved, conditionally speaking that they were either characterizing climate in our
country or were having global importance. In view of the fact that the basic meteorologi¬
cal data were not complete in the majority of stations, we dealt with them in a specific way.
The sets based on the best correlating relations between all meteorological stations were
filled in for every month and precipitations were followed up in the framework of certain
river basins and two administrative units. According to observation the importance of
other factors, as well as the quality of the values obtained were particularly stressed. The
greatest number of observation stations was so located as to reflect „in a representative
way the climate of somewhat larger surrounding areas. In spite
ofthat,
indices in question
sometimes more and sometimes less showed additional microclimatic influences. Insisting
on results as reliable as possible should serve as support for a more objective understand¬
ing of the
2nd
degree modifier. Already in the introductory part, a need for further research
in that direction was felt. It could facilitate further application of the positive sides of such
approach and reduce or improve its deficiencies. The same goes for deviations related to
homogeneity and consistency of the strings, which are not included in interpretations of
the indications obtained.
With the change of the height above sea level, the pressure of air changes quickly as
well. In terms of the average annual levels, it ranges from about
735
mb on the highest
crests, peaks and summits up to about
1,012
mb in the lowest valleys. The northern low
parts of Serbia, the Peripanonic Edge and
Timočka
Krajina
are characterized by the pres¬
sure above
1,000
mb. With the rise of the height above sea level lower temperatures occur,
which undoubtedly influences the amount of air pressure. The steeper the slopes, i.e. the
greater the angles of inclination the pressure decline is more expressed.
Exposai
of certain
mountainsides more notably affects the pressure when the air flows to and accumulates on
the windswept side. With weaker gradients that influence is higher or taking a different
turn. Furthermore, it has been noted that
Vojvodina
represents an important factor of
cyclone formation. On the other side, certain mountain massifs in our country and our
neighborhood are indisputable factors of anticyclonic processes.
As expected the relief of Serbia for the most part cannot keep or change the general
direction of the air masses of greater size. In some cases penetration directions caused by
cyclonic movement even do not have to be primarily conditioned by relief. The influence
of land configuration is nonetheless strong because the characteristics of air change with its
raising and falling across some elevation. Channeling of such movements is particularly
visible in deeply cut river valleys. Regardless of their characteristics, taken as incoming
parameters, they are more or less modified by relief.
Owing to dominant types of atmospheric circulation and configuration of land, flow¬
ing over the greater part of Serbia is low. Such its orientation causes local winds to be one
of the basic climatic features in many our regions, i.e. morphology significantly determines
dominant frequency of winds from corresponding directions, which moreover could be
noted viewing the majority of presented examples. In situations when direction of wind
flowing coincides with the prevailing direction of slopes extension, deceleration occurs
close to low surface layers because of friction against the base. On higher tracts of land, the
airflow has greater speed but because of great itemization directions and speed of the wind
are much more complex. „Detailed maps illustrating the speed of wind should not be made
at all because the influence of local conditions upon land areas in the majority of cases
overrides the influence of general climatic factors (Pokrovskay,
1957).
The speed of the
wind near
Brod
(south of
Dragas)
measured by hand anemometer at night of February
10
1992,
on approximately
1,500
m
above sea level was more than
30 m/s.
Spatially the most
represented and assumingly the most important winds on our territory are
kősava
(south
and southeast wind) and etezia.
Characteristics of temperature at greater heights above sea level are a sign, it could be
said, of an essentially different regime in comparison with lowland areas. The thinner air
has weaker possibilities to keep up the emanated heat so that in higher land areas a nega¬
tive heat balance is present. The air masses flowing in affect the thermal regime as well. The
upward as well as downward movements regardless of their heat degree are necessarily
transformed. Bearing
ín
mind that lowland areas with minor height above sea level are spa¬
tially most represented it could be said that their temperature characteristics are mainly
similar. However in hilly and mountain areas heating conditions are different. Namely,
with the change of the land inclination angle the falling angle of sunrays is changed, which
is reflected on the heating of base as well, and in that way of the air. Besides, the morpho¬
logical structure of certain mountains can bring on essentially different thermal conditions
than areas at approximately similar heights above sea level not surrounded by mountains.
Sudden changes of exposure and angles of inclination in the mountains are generally the
essential causes of great temperature and climate differences at short distances.
The influence of relief upon precipitations is most certainly considered in relation to:
1.
Different amount of precipitation gradients as well as the average monthly and annual
sums on wind-exposed and leeward sides;
2.
Occurrence of rain shadows;
3.
Spatial representation of certain types of regimes, which is in the closest connection with
direction of certain mountain massifs;
4.
Upper parts of mountains, which in certain cases are characterized by precipitations
inversion;
5. Island
mountains which, conditionally speaking, have greater influence upon the quan¬
tity of precipitations than other mountains significantly higher but placed within a
mountain range;
6.
The placement of stations cannot be regarded as satisfactory if the influence of relief
upon condensation level has to be accurately looked at;
7.
Uneven hilly and lowland areas are in fact characterized by predominantly equal distri¬
bution of precipitations; when absolute values are taken into consideration essential dif¬
ferences between certain parts of Serbia are still found;
8.
Canyon and gorge type valleys principally obtain more precipitations under the influ¬
ence of higher, near by mountains than the neighboring ravines but the difference can¬
not be regarded as great
(Radováno
vie,
2001).
Regional atmospheric circulation is of extreme importance to weather and climate in
our country. Penetration of different air masses is associated with cyclonic and anticyclonic
activity in a broader setting and their relationship is very complex. Therefore, relocation of
air masses is not periodic but largely varied as in relation to their kinds and types, so in rela¬
tion to the speed of their movement or hanging about. It turned out that pointing at posi¬
tions of the actions centers in a broader setting has been justified. Depressions are much
deeper in the winter than in the summer months and anticyclones are also much stronger
in winter than in summer. The peripheral parts of depressions and anticyclones exert influ¬
ence upon the southern parts of Serbia, while the central parts of cyclones and anticyclones
make their corridors through the
Sava
and Danube valleys. It is anyhow necessary to men¬
tion that „dependence of the general circulation characteristics on the climatic characteris¬
tics of some regions has not yet been established
(Radinović,
2000).
Dinarides in
southwest Serbia prevent undisturbed flow from the north towards the
Mediterranean area so that continental influences are felt in the greater part of our territo¬
ry. The spacious Panonian Depression as well as its peripheral edge is in winter often under
somewhat thicker layer of cold air, which could hang around for a couple of days. Moun¬
tain areas then could be warmer (i.e. temperature inversions often take place in such con¬
ditions). Maritime air is restricted to a considerably smaller area because of mountain bar¬
riers not only in Serbia but also in Montenegro, Albania, Croatia and Bosnia. It however
happens that especially continental tropical air, in certain situations, brings over Mediter¬
ranean tropical heat, which could flow over the whole state as well as closer and remoter
neighboring countries. Depending on directions from which continental tropical air comes
to Serbia abundant precipitations are often drawn out on wind-swept mountainsides and
in sheltered spots, in the interior of our country, air masses cleared of moisture turn up.
Not only in such weather conditions, intensified circulation at a greater height above sea
level can essentially influence the measured precipitations values.
As already mentioned, thermal characteristics of the air reaching our regions incite
temperature characteristics in certain months. Standard deviation points to considerably
higher stability in summer and to dynamic interchange of thermally differing air masses,
especially in January and February. Using that statistical indicator, certain conclusions
were made which designate
Metohija
as a separate land area. Instrumental observations
Summary
report even
Đ35.6
OC,
while extreme
maximums
surpass grade
42.
It is important to stress
when the absolute
minimums
getting down to
Đ30
OC are
in question that they can be
recorded in low land areas (below
200
m
above sea level), as well as in high land areas
(above
1,700
m
above sea level). In other words, one can come across them in any height
belt but not anywhere. Of course, similar values cannot be obtained under the same weath¬
er conditions in all parts of our Republic. Among other things, coefficients of correlation
between Kopaonik and the neighboring stations at its foothill point to it.
The influence of regional atmospheric processes upon the spatial distribution of pre¬
cipitations has also been observed owing to data dispersion around the average values, i.e.
variation coefficient
(Cv),
as well the
pluviometrie
regime. Certain aspects of these phe¬
nomena need more research. Precipitations variations in a iarge number of measuring sta¬
tions point out that extensive field investigations are necessary. Only after them, something
more concrete about spatial regularities of the influence of circulation upon deviations
from the average values can be said. It has been shown that the border of the
pluviometrie
regime mainly lies in Kosovo and
Metohija.
There has been doubt for a longer period in
objectivity of data from certain locations with a view to the fact that predominantly Alban¬
ian population was engaged in observation. Not only natural but also anthropogenic
changes in the vicinity of stations are objectively existing factors which exert influence on
the measured values of any element regardless of the feet that professional staff is working
in some stations.
It can be said that the used indicators do not give by themselves alone parameters sen¬
sitive enough to make the position of certain climatic entities precisely discernible. In prin¬
ciple, it is certain that they can be watched in the framework of certain height belts. On cer¬
tain lower territories, essentially different conditions of weather development in relation to
mountains certainly dominate. They also differ about geographical latitude even though
differences in that regard, for example between eastern and western Serbia, are not negli¬
gible. Maritime penetrations into the extreme southwest point, modified by mountain
influences, provide about
2,500
mm of annual precipitations on the highest mountain
crests and peaks. In the northern parts, precipitations are mainly conditioned by penetra¬
tion of cyclones. However, the poorest stations regarding precipitations get over four times
smaller quantity than Prokletije (below
550
mm).
Taking into account to date investigations one can get an impression that satisfacto¬
ry results could be obtained if climatic regionalization, based on two elementary principles
would be carried out. The first of them would treat the zoning of climatic elements by
height and their peculiarities by certain belts respectfully. If the question is about lower ter¬
ritories, the separation of regions based on the changes of these elements in horizontal
regard could be carried out. In that, special attention should be paid to thresholds size
foi-
certain
elements. The most important problems, which can be met in that regard, are relat¬
ed to:
-
Choice of the optimum methods and priorities of climatic regionalization which would
satisfy the great number of users, taking care to avoid unnecessary detailed and general¬
ized expositions in the final part;
-
Absence
of
standards
with
regard
to terminological definition of independently separat¬
ed entities; it can be said that the use of certain
taxonomic
units is quantitatively as well
as qualitatively, spatially and timely
disharmonie;
systemic solutions concerning hierar¬
chy and structure of spatial units are still lacking at present;
-
Choice of climatic elements; to date classifications were most often based on
2-3
ele¬
ments, rarely on several of them so that. Therefore, a complete picture of the single ele¬
ments based on the results arrived at cannot be obtained. Regionalization based on one
or several leading factors is simpler but their use can hardly add to better comprehen¬
sion of interactive relations which in fact are one of the essential factors of climate for¬
mation as well;
-
Possibilities for interpretation of every element in several ways, in fact the choice of sta¬
tistical indicators is often personal and mainly subjected to the purpose of regionaliza¬
tion intention;
-
Data bases and their combination with modern technology represent a technical and
servicing problem which in many regards aggravates the realization of the present sub¬
ject; at present the use of data furnished by automatic observation stations is out of
question;
-
The stations are unevenly and insufficiently distributed, especially in the mountains;
with a view to the fact that climate is frequently and alternatingly changed on elevated
territories a higher degree of generalization is necessary, which is usually classified as
„mountainous or „alpine climate;
-
Cartographic presentation of the results obtained (signs, colors, borders, combination
with diagrams etc.) is not standardized; regionalizations on
1: 50,000
ratio maps are
extremely rare;
-
Because of impossibility to present clearly, practically and concisely the entire processed
material relevant to all units, even the smallest ones, generalization once more becomes
obligatory.
The second principle is related to classification of weather situations, their types and
territorial distribution respectively. In that regard, a separate group of problems occurs as
it has previously been said. However, regardless of their large number, diversity and grav¬
ity it is interesting to mention that there are indications as to where certain borders should
be.
In
Šegota
opinion
(1976),
the central divergence line goes from
Velika Kanjiža
in
Hungary over
Slavonski Brod, Prijepolje
and Prizren. East
ofthat
line and north of the 43rd
parallel the northwest and west flowing prevails. One could suppose that formerly the men¬
tioned line most likely morphologically followed the
Zapadna
Morava
valley and that
towards east it was attached to the
Nišava
valley. Interestingly, the majority of domestic
authors of studies on the parts in our country, with slight deviations agree on the southern
border up to which
kősava
(south-east wind) prevails in cold periods of the year. In Serbia
kősava
blows up to Dimitrovgrad,
Niš,
KruŠevac, Kraljevo... (Milosavljević
1972).
It
involves areas of
Podunavlje
and Pomoravlje, areas north of Zlatibor, Kopaonik, Veliki Jas-
trebac,
Nišava
and areas west of Mali
Đerdap (Radinović
1981)
etc. Looking once again at
fig.
23.
given by Alisov we see that his border of the European-continental and continen-
Summary
tal-
Mediterranean areas rather well coincides with the earlier mentioned disagreement
about allocation of
košava
that Shegota was speaking about. We could here add the results
about the
1931-1960
period obtained for the Atlas of Climate.
We have seen that the border between the regions III and IV is placed more to the
south of the previously mentioned position. We have also seen that the borer between two
precipitation regimes (S.
Ranković
1974)
is also positioned „approximately in that area. If
we bear in mind that it resulted from studies of various elements (fronts, winds, air tem¬
perature, precipitations) an impression is imposed that the regional border between dom¬
ination of various air masses could be in that area. We should stress that in climatology the
border between certain territorial units is only rarely taken as the borderline. The question
is mainly about transitional belts of various widths. If the precipitation regime is put in the
forefront an impression is forced that the mentioned border is approximately positioned
more to the south. We have also seen that north of the 44th parallel there are no exceptions
in relation to observation stations with maritime pluvuiometric regime. It can be expected
that certain coincidence will occur if sub-criteria related to the secondary precipitation
maximum are introduced or defined.
The lack of consideration devoted to other clirnatological elements has a great influ¬
ence upon the quality of research. It implies before all to: insulation, snow carpet, number
of characteristic days regarding certain elements. However, it turned out already at the
beginning that much denser network of stations is necessary for a more concrete determi¬
nation of the position of certain regions.
In spite of a relatively small territory, it is certain that we are faced with a great dif¬
ferentiation and diversity of certain types of climate. They are a consequence in the first
place of itemization of the relief and interweaving of the air masses of various properties.
In the context of the given subject, it was not possible to take into strictly separate consid¬
eration the mentioned influences, exclusively in the framework of land configuration or
atmospheric processes. In fact the question is about a close mutual relation and effect con¬
sequentially reflected on climatic elements. Numerous specificities concerning the position
of certain stations could direct investigation towards largely detailed approach from which
the processes giving climatic characteristics in the regional sense could not be viewed. The
absence of instrumental measurements on relatively great surfaces on the other hand
deprives researchers of the necessary information, especially in the mountain and high
mountain zones. On the contrary, a more general approach, even at the level of a small
Republic like Serbia, carries in itself a danger of loosing opportunity to comprehend cor¬
responding characteristics of smaller entities. In the present paper an attempt was made to
overcome, Pointing to the existing influences and critically reviewing the most important
results in that field, in essence a possible way of regionalization was suggested. Develop¬
ment of contemporary methodology opens up new possibilities regarding anticipated
behavior of certain climatic elements in the forthcoming years. With that possibility,
regional climatology shall get a new dimension including one of the most important per¬
spective possibilities.
Vladimir
Jakšić
started meteorological observations in Serbia in January
1. 1848.
Thanks to his efforts a system of
20
meteorological stations was working in
1856,
and in
1857.
even
27
stations were working which probably represented the densest system in the
world for that period of time. Unfortunately, according to estimates of the current
clima-
tologists, it isn t possible to attach these valuable observations to the subsequent series of
observations made in meteorological observatory in Belgrade because of
non representa-
tivness of the locations and difference in methodology of measuring.
The data for Belgrade were analysed from the Meteorological observatory situated in
the Karadjordje Park on the altitude of
132
m, in wider city heart, the measurements of
which have been done under the unique methodology since
1887.
There have been noticed
that the lowest temperature decade values were at the beginning of measuring
(11.17 °С),
and the highest in the last decade of the
20.
century
(12.55
C). That is in keeping with the
general idea about global temperature increase in the
20.
century. The precipitation
changes analysis shows that the driest decade was in
1901 -1910
while the moistest one was
in
1971 -1980.
In addition to that there have clearly been noticed four cycles by two
decades in observed period. By the method of linear trend we could get that the mean tem¬
perature change in period
1891 » 2000.
was
+ 0.089 °С
per decade, while the precipitations
were changing under the rate of
+ 5.188
mm per decade. In general, the climate on the ter¬
ritory of Belgrade looking the observed period became warmer and insignificantly moister.
We could say that the data for Belgrade are not reliable because of the development
of so-called urban island of heat. Modern researches show that the values of almost all cli¬
matic elements in the city are significantly changed. However, the most noticeable is the
city effect on the air temperature. Trying to define the values of Belgrade island of heat, we
started from the supposition that the decade temperature changes in some „unurban
meteorological station would be exclusively a reflection of variability of the thermic regime,
and that the same ones are also under the influence of urbanization in Belgrade. In that
case the temperature difference between both stations could be the consequence of urban¬
ization of Belgrade.
Station called
Rimski Šančevi
(near
Novi
Sad) was chosen as a comparing station. The
results of decade temperatures observing showed that the difference between the last and
the first decade in Belgrade was
1.4
C. However, in
Rimski Šančevi
the difference was only
0.4
C. That already points to the urban temperature increase in Belgrade. It has also been
seen that the last decade in Belgrade is warmer than the mean values of tlae whole series for
0.87 °С,
while in
Rimski Šančevi
the same decade is warmer for only
0.46 °С.
The average
change between the decades is
0.14 °С
in Belgrade while in
Rimski Šančevi
the same change
is only
0.04
С.
Observing the differences between simultaneous decade temperatures in Belgrade
and
Rimski
„anèevi
an increase is clearly noticed. If we assumed that the difference of
0.1 °С
between the first decades is a reflection of natural influences, then the difference of
1
Л
°С
between-the last decades would be
1.0 °С,
reduced for the value of „unurban difference
between the first decades. It could represent the size of growth of the urban island of heat
in Belgrade for the observed period.
During the last decades the growth of authors interested in the problems of changes
and climate variability have been noticed in the world climatological literature. Technical
and technological development have brought new concerns to the mankind
-
global pollu-
Summary
tion
of the atmosphere caused by combustion of fossil fuel and CO2 emission. Thanks to
numerous researches, it
bacarne
clear that the emission could have smaller or larger conse¬
quences on climate, in dependence on models that were used.
In the system of
20
main meteorological stations, conditionally arranged homoge¬
neously on the territory of Serbia, we observed simple differentiations of mean tempera¬
ture of the last and the first decade
(1991-2000.
and
1951-1960).
We also used a method
of linear trend in order to define more precisely the size of changes. According to the first
method it was gotten that it came to the increase of temperature in
16
stations while in
4
stations there were no greater changes. By method of the linear trend, a little different
results are gotten. Namely, the trend is positve in
15
stations, and it is negative in
5
stations.
The greatest increase made stations in the east, turned towards
Vlaška
vally, as well as parts
of
Vojvodina
(north) and northwestern part of Serbia. However, in the parts of south and
in the southeastern Serbia, the values of the linear trend are negative
(Radovanović, Ducić,
2004).
General temperature increase in north and east, but also the decrease in southeast led
us to search for eventual circulational reasons of temperature change. Trying to define the
circulational factor we used the typology that Dzerdzevski
(1975)
developed. On the basis
of synoptic material he separated three basic types of circulation in north hemisphere, with
its characteristical schedule of air masses. These are: zonal, meridian south and meridian
north. Kononova
(1989)
cited that each of these types caused certain thermic exceptions in
Europe. The zonal type caused exception above normal, meridian south around normal
and meridian north caused exception below normal.
In order to connect temperature changes in Serbia with the changes of types of cir¬
culation, we „divided the circulation epochs on decades, assuming that the relative dom¬
ination of certain type will still be clearly noticed on a decade level. Then we attributed each
type a certain sign of change, depending on its thermic characteristics. We attributed sign
(+1)
to the zonal type, and to the meridian south sign
(0).
According to Kononova s data
there were no meridian north epoch with a sign
(-1)
in observed period.
The coefficient of correlation between changes of dominant types of circulation and
mean decade temperature for Serbia as a whole is
0.8,
and for rounded off values
0.86.
Thus
it results from all of this that the temperature increase in the last decade of the
20.
century
is dominantly caused by the change of type of the circulation from meridian south to the
»warmer zonal type.
Trying to check if eventually seasonal changes would point to the CO2 signal, we also
prepared those data for all stations, as a simple difference of the last and the first decade in
the second half of
20.
century. For comperison of the results we used two paleoclimatic
analogues, according to which temperatures in our regions in holocene optimum (which
is the model of the climate of the future appeared as a consequence of carbon dioxide) in
relation to the current had larger increase in winter than in summer. Models of IPCC show
the same.
Out of data analysis it comes that the mean value of changes is the largest in spring
(0.7 °С)
and summer
(0.6 °С)
for the whole territory of Serbia, which doesn t fit into the
paleoclimatic analogues. In autumn and winter there aren t almost any changes. Temper-
ature
decrease in winter is noticed in
9
out of
20
stations, which doesn t fit not only into
the paleoclimatic analogues, but into the concept of greenhouse effect, too. The coefficient
of correlation for some seasons with changes of dominant types of circulation gave the best
results for summer.
It is possible that the regional factors are less expressed in summer (the Adriatic Sea,
Black Sea, the mountain
massives
and large valleys) and because of that the connections
with the global circulation are better. The same shows a fact that the largest increase in
spring is stressed on extreme east, turned to the
Vlaška
valley and the Black Sea. Similar to
that, positive exceptions in autumn are mainly concentrated along west edge of Serbia
turned to the Dinaric mountain system and the Adriatic Sea.
In keeping with the previous discussions connected with fixing the decade trends of
air temperature in Serbia and their causes, the similar was done for the precipitations, too.
However, the great disagreements in models make harder the estimate if an anthropogenic
influence could be registered in the changes of precipitations. If we observe regionally, we
could see that the stations with growth of precipitations are located on southwest, west and
northwest of Serbia
(Novi Pazar, Sjenica,
Łożnica,
Novi
Sad and Palić),
therefore closer to
the source of humidity (the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea). Three out of four stations
with the largest reduction of precipitation (over
100
mm) are situated in southeast and east
Serbia
(Vranje, Zaječar
and Negotin), therefore „deeper in land. We could make a con¬
clusion that the reasons for changes of precipitation in the observed period should above
all look for in the changes of atmosphere circulation.
The holder of researches on the contemporary climate variabilities in the former FRJ
was the Federal Meteorological Bureaux (FMB). In their projections people from FMB
were dominantly turned to the future changes of precipitations in our regions. They
assumed that the decrease of precipitations in decade
1981-1990
comparing with the pre¬
vious one was a certain consequence of anthropogenic influence as well as that the
observed trend would be continued in the future. According to our opinion one must be
very careful in explaining the high values of precipitation
percents
in decade
1981 - 1990.
because using the data for precipitations for Belgrade one could see that the base decade for
the calculation
(1971-1980)
was the moistest decade in the history of measuring.
We also have to be very careful while explanining trends of changing the precipita¬
tions. In the reports of IPCC it is said that there were certain regional differences. The lines
of annual precipitations in Europe didn t show any significant trend, especially after
1950.
While talking about possible future changes of precipitations in a document of IPCC is said
that summer precipitations could stay unchanged in many parts of Europe and that some
models showed decrease in the Mediterranean region and east and middle Europe, while
others suggested the increase of summer precipitations.
The researches of FMB have developed an original methodology for separating the
„half drought regions. They started from Budiko
-
Leltau index of drought defined as a
relation among average annual net radiation, precipitations and latent heat of evaporation.
On the basis of data for Belgrade» the limitted value of precipitations for the half drought
areas was determined and it was
530
mm. The forecast for
2000
year shows that northeast¬
ern part of the country would satisfy given criterion for the half drought areas. In the next
Summary
decade, up to
2010.
this area would be enlarged towards south west, and two new half
drought areas would emerge, one in the eastern, and another in the southeastern and south
Serbia. Up to
2020
the half drought areas would enlarge at the same direction as well as in
the previous decade, so that in the eastern and southeastern part of the country the large
areas would have the characteristics of half drought areas. The area would be limited by
Negotin
-
Majdanpek
-
Kragujevac
-
Župrija
-
Prokuplje
-
Josanièka
Banja
-
Tutin
-
Pre-
ševo líne.
What is going to happen in the future with the main generator of climatic changes
-
the changes of the Solar activity? Shatten and Sofia said that in the last
50
years the Sun had
shown the largest activity since Galileo observations. They also said that if the following
Solar cycle (no.
23)
showed the falling trend, that would mean that the Solar activity would
have the opposite course from the one that used to exist in the last
400
years, that is, it
would come to its general fall. Shatten thought that if the forecast about reduced Solar
activity made true, that would mean that it would come to lessen of the global warming,
expected as a consequence of the greenhouse effect.
Timo Niroma
analyzed the cyclicity of
the Solar activity in as he said two millenium s historical perspective. As a part of that
analysis he separated the cycles of lasting from
55-60
years connecting them with the cli¬
mate variabilities. According to him, the decade of 1990 s belonged to warm phase, with
maximum that culminated in
1998.
He expected that the Solar activity would start reduc¬
ing the intensity and that the warm phase would be finished in the second decade of the
21.
century. The last (warm) cycle strated in
1925,
and according to Niroma s prognosis it
would end in
2015.
after which we could enter into colder period.
What would happen to the changes of circulation types in the future? Kononova
found that in the change of circulating epochs in the
19
and the
20
century general laws
have been seen: zonal and meridian epochs have been changing but one zonal has been
changed by meridian north epoch, and the following zonal has been changed by meridian
south epoch (similar to the pendulum moving). On the basis of it she gave a prognosis that
the conteporary period
(1980*8)
was a transitional one towards the new zonal epoch of the
end of the
20.
and the beginning of the
21.
century.
In general there are
7
circulating epochs in period
1801-1980
with different length of
lasting. The first meridian north epoch started in the
18.
century and its length was unre¬
liable, while the last meridian south up to 1980 s was still lasting. Thus five epochs have
precisely determined lasting of
14-40
years.
If Kononova is right and if the regular change contineus, then the ongoing zonal
epoch that started at the end of
1
980 s and at the beginning of 1990 s should replace merid¬
ian north which brings deviation of temperature below the average. Since the zonal type
(current) is the warmest, and meridian north the coldest one, this change of types we could
go through as a sudden and strong cold spell.
Unies
this change of types is very likely it is
less obvious when will it happen. However, in the previous
180
years the largest epoch last¬
ing was
40
years. If we rely on this we could eventually assume that this change would hap¬
pen at least till the end of 30 s of the
21.
century. However, this is the upper limit, of course.
The shortest period was
14
years, and we have passed that length. Thus the lasting of the
current zonal type would the most probably be between these two options.
At the end let s mention Milan
Stvančević,
an engineer with a completely new and origi¬
nal approach concerning scientific researches, among others on the field of prognostic meteor¬
ology. It could be said that the ideas he supports at least act as if to provoke because they are
confronting in many places with generally accepted laws in climatology and meteorology. It cer-
tanly would be many discussions on the results of his researches. The whole opus of M. Ste-
vanćević
could be rejected and that, of course, would not be for the first time for the science.
However, it is impossible to overlook the comparative analysis of forecasted and measured val¬
ues (figure
27)
which tall« itself about the validity of used methodology. All the sooner the sim¬
ilar forecasts also emerged several times later with relatively great success, too.
|
| adam_txt |
САДРЖАЈ
ПРЕДГОВОР
. 5
УВОД
. 9
Атмосфера
. 9
Време и клима
. 12
Развој метеоролошких осматрања
у
Србији
. 12
ОПШТИ ГЕОГРАФСКИ И КЛИМАТСКИ УСЛОВИ
. 15
Положај
. 15
Рељеф.
15
'
Воде
-
мора,
језера
и реке
. 17
Вегетација.
18
Насеља
. 19
АТМОСФЕРСКАЦИРКУЛАЦИЈА
. 20
Атмосферска колебања
великих размера.
20
Циркулациони
процеси
средњих
и
малих
размера
. 22
ПРОСТОРНА РАСПОДЕЛА КЛИМАТСКИХ ЕЛЕМЕНАТА
. 35
Ваздушни притисак
. 35
Температура ваздуха
. 43
Ветар
. 59
Облачност и
релативиа
влажност
. 69
Падавине
.
72
РЕГИОНАЛНА
КЛИМАТОЛОГИЈАСРБИЈЕ
. 91
Класификације
климата.
91
Типови климата
Србије
. 92
KO
ЛЕБАЊЕ
КЛИМАТА
. 106
Природни фактори
колебања
климата
. 106
Астрономски фактори
. 107
Геофизички фактори
. 110
Нови
приступ
у
проучавању
атмосферских и климатских процеса
. 112
Антропогени
утицаји
на време
и климу
. 119
Савремена климатска
колебаїьа на основу података
за Београд
. 119
Интензитет острва топлоте Београда
-
узроци и
његова
динамика
. 122
Регионални аспекти
климатских,кдлебаїьа у
Србији
. 128
Стање
и динамика озонског омотача
>.'.,:. .·.
я.
. 138
ПРОЈЕКЦИЈЕ
КЛИМЕ
СРБИЈЕ
У
БУДУЋНОСТИ
. 147
Осврт
на
пројекције
IPCC
. 147
Пројекције будуће емисије СО2
. 153
Очекиване климатске промене у
Србији
. 160
ПОГОВОР
. 165
ЛИТЕРАТУРА
. 175
SUMMARY.
180
ПРИЛОГ
. 191
SUMMARY
One of the starting points in this paper was to explain, using characteristic examples,
the influence of relief and atmospheric circulation upon differentiation of climate in Ser¬
bia. Other factors have not been separately taken into consideration because to date inves¬
tigations proved, conditionally speaking that they were either characterizing climate in our
country or were having global importance. In view of the fact that the basic meteorologi¬
cal data were not complete in the majority of stations, we dealt with them in a specific way.
The sets based on the best correlating relations between all meteorological stations were
filled in for every month and precipitations were followed up in the framework of certain
river basins and two administrative units. According to observation the importance of
other factors, as well as the quality of the values obtained were particularly stressed. The
greatest number of observation stations was so located as to reflect „in a representative
way" the climate of somewhat larger surrounding areas. In spite
ofthat,
indices in question
sometimes more and sometimes less showed additional microclimatic influences. Insisting
on results as reliable as possible should serve as support for a more objective understand¬
ing of the
2nd
degree modifier. Already in the introductory part, a need for further research
in that direction was felt. It could facilitate further application of the positive sides of such
approach and reduce or improve its deficiencies. The same goes for deviations related to
homogeneity and consistency of the strings, which are not included in interpretations of
the indications obtained.
With the change of the height above sea level, the pressure of air changes quickly as
well. In terms of the average annual levels, it ranges from about
735
mb on the highest
crests, peaks and summits up to about
1,012
mb in the lowest valleys. The northern low
parts of Serbia, the Peripanonic Edge and
Timočka
Krajina
are characterized by the pres¬
sure above
1,000
mb. With the rise of the height above sea level lower temperatures occur,
which undoubtedly influences the amount of air pressure. The steeper the slopes, i.e. the
greater the angles of inclination the pressure decline is more expressed.
Exposai
of certain
mountainsides more notably affects the pressure when the air flows to and accumulates on
the windswept side. With weaker gradients that influence is higher or taking a different
turn. Furthermore, it has been noted that
Vojvodina
represents an important factor of
cyclone formation. On the other side, certain mountain massifs in our country and our
neighborhood are indisputable factors of anticyclonic processes.
As expected the relief of Serbia for the most part cannot keep or change the general
direction of the air masses of greater size. In some cases penetration directions caused by
cyclonic movement even do not have to be primarily conditioned by relief. The influence
of land configuration is nonetheless strong because the characteristics of air change with its
raising and falling across some elevation. Channeling of such movements is particularly
visible in deeply cut river valleys. Regardless of their characteristics, taken as incoming
parameters, they are more or less modified by relief.
Owing to dominant types of atmospheric circulation and configuration of land, flow¬
ing over the greater part of Serbia is low. Such its orientation causes local winds to be one
of the basic climatic features in many our regions, i.e. morphology significantly determines
dominant frequency of winds from corresponding directions, which moreover could be
noted viewing the majority of presented examples. In situations when direction of wind
flowing coincides with the prevailing direction of slopes extension, deceleration occurs
close to low surface layers because of friction against the base. On higher tracts of land, the
airflow has greater speed but because of great itemization directions and speed of the wind
are much more complex. „Detailed maps illustrating the speed of wind should not be made
at all because the influence of local conditions upon land areas in the majority of cases
overrides the influence of general climatic factors" (Pokrovskay,
1957).
The speed of the
wind near
Brod
(south of
Dragas)
measured by hand anemometer at night of February
10
1992,
on approximately
1,500
m
above sea level was more than
30 m/s.
Spatially the most
represented and assumingly the most important winds on our territory are
kősava
(south
and southeast wind) and etezia.
Characteristics of temperature at greater heights above sea level are a sign, it could be
said, of an essentially different regime in comparison with lowland areas. The thinner air
has weaker possibilities to keep up the emanated heat so that in higher land areas a nega¬
tive heat balance is present. The air masses flowing in affect the thermal regime as well. The
upward as well as downward movements regardless of their heat degree are necessarily
transformed. Bearing
ín
mind that lowland areas with minor height above sea level are spa¬
tially most represented it could be said that their temperature characteristics are mainly
similar. However in hilly and mountain areas heating conditions are different. Namely,
with the change of the land inclination angle the falling angle of sunrays is changed, which
is reflected on the heating of base as well, and in that way of the air. Besides, the morpho¬
logical structure of certain mountains can bring on essentially different thermal conditions
than areas at approximately similar heights above sea level not surrounded by mountains.
Sudden changes of exposure and angles of inclination in the mountains are generally the
essential causes of great temperature and climate differences at short distances.
The influence of relief upon precipitations is most certainly considered in relation to:
1.
Different amount of precipitation gradients as well as the average monthly and annual
sums on wind-exposed and leeward sides;
2.
Occurrence of rain shadows;
3.
Spatial representation of certain types of regimes, which is in the closest connection with
direction of certain mountain massifs;
4.
Upper parts of mountains, which in certain cases are characterized by precipitations
inversion;
5. Island
mountains which, conditionally speaking, have greater influence upon the quan¬
tity of precipitations than other mountains significantly higher but placed within a
mountain range;
6.
The placement of stations cannot be regarded as satisfactory if the influence of relief
upon condensation level has to be accurately looked at;
7.
Uneven hilly and lowland areas are in fact characterized by predominantly equal distri¬
bution of precipitations; when absolute values are taken into consideration essential dif¬
ferences between certain parts of Serbia are still found;
8.
Canyon and gorge type valleys principally obtain more precipitations under the influ¬
ence of higher, near by mountains than the neighboring ravines but the difference can¬
not be regarded as great
(Radováno
vie,
2001).
Regional atmospheric circulation is of extreme importance to weather and climate in
our country. Penetration of different air masses is associated with cyclonic and anticyclonic
activity in a broader setting and their relationship is very complex. Therefore, relocation of
air masses is not periodic but largely varied as in relation to their kinds and types, so in rela¬
tion to the speed of their movement or hanging about. It turned out that pointing at posi¬
tions of the actions centers in a broader setting has been justified. Depressions are much
deeper in the winter than in the summer months and anticyclones are also much stronger
in winter than in summer. The peripheral parts of depressions and anticyclones exert influ¬
ence upon the southern parts of Serbia, while the central parts of cyclones and anticyclones
make their corridors through the
Sava
and Danube valleys. It is anyhow necessary to men¬
tion that „dependence of the general circulation characteristics on the climatic characteris¬
tics of some regions has not yet been established"
(Radinović,
2000).
Dinarides in
southwest Serbia prevent undisturbed flow from the north towards the
Mediterranean area so that continental influences are felt in the greater part of our territo¬
ry. The spacious Panonian Depression as well as its peripheral edge is in winter often under
somewhat thicker layer of cold air, which could hang around for a couple of days. Moun¬
tain areas then could be warmer (i.e. temperature inversions often take place in such con¬
ditions). Maritime air is restricted to a considerably smaller area because of mountain bar¬
riers not only in Serbia but also in Montenegro, Albania, Croatia and Bosnia. It however
happens that especially continental tropical air, in certain situations, brings over Mediter¬
ranean tropical heat, which could flow over the whole state as well as closer and remoter
neighboring countries. Depending on directions from which continental tropical air comes
to Serbia abundant precipitations are often drawn out on wind-swept mountainsides and
in sheltered spots, in the interior of our country, air masses cleared of moisture turn up.
Not only in such weather conditions, intensified circulation at a greater height above sea
level can essentially influence the measured precipitations values.
As already mentioned, thermal characteristics of the air reaching our regions incite
temperature characteristics in certain months. Standard deviation points to considerably
higher stability in summer and to dynamic interchange of thermally differing air masses,
especially in January and February. Using that statistical indicator, certain conclusions
were made which designate
Metohija
as a separate land area. Instrumental observations
Summary
report even
Đ35.6
OC,
while extreme
maximums
surpass grade
42.
It is important to stress
when the absolute
minimums
getting down to
Đ30
OC are
in question that they can be
recorded in low land areas (below
200
m
above sea level), as well as in high land areas
(above
1,700
m
above sea level). In other words, one can come across them in any height
belt but not anywhere. Of course, similar values cannot be obtained under the same weath¬
er conditions in all parts of our Republic. Among other things, coefficients of correlation
between Kopaonik and the neighboring stations at its foothill point to it.
The influence of regional atmospheric processes upon the spatial distribution of pre¬
cipitations has also been observed owing to data dispersion around the average values, i.e.
variation coefficient
(Cv),
as well the
pluviometrie
regime. Certain aspects of these phe¬
nomena need more research. Precipitations variations in a iarge number of measuring sta¬
tions point out that extensive field investigations are necessary. Only after them, something
more concrete about spatial regularities of the influence of circulation upon deviations
from the average values can be said. It has been shown that the border of the
pluviometrie
regime mainly lies in Kosovo and
Metohija.
There has been doubt for a longer period in
objectivity of data from certain locations with a view to the fact that predominantly Alban¬
ian population was engaged in observation. Not only natural but also anthropogenic
changes in the vicinity of stations are objectively existing factors which exert influence on
the measured values of any element regardless of the feet that professional staff is working
in some stations.
It can be said that the used indicators do not give by themselves alone parameters sen¬
sitive enough to make the position of certain climatic entities precisely discernible. In prin¬
ciple, it is certain that they can be watched in the framework of certain height belts. On cer¬
tain lower territories, essentially different conditions of weather development in relation to
mountains certainly dominate. They also differ about geographical latitude even though
differences in that regard, for example between eastern and western Serbia, are not negli¬
gible. Maritime penetrations into the extreme southwest point, modified by mountain
influences, provide about
2,500
mm of annual precipitations on the highest mountain
crests and peaks. In the northern parts, precipitations are mainly conditioned by penetra¬
tion of cyclones. However, the poorest stations regarding precipitations get over four times
smaller quantity than Prokletije (below
550
mm).
Taking into account to date investigations one can get an impression that satisfacto¬
ry results could be obtained if climatic regionalization, based on two elementary principles
would be carried out. The first of them would treat the zoning of climatic elements by
height and their peculiarities by certain belts respectfully. If the question is about lower ter¬
ritories, the separation of regions based on the changes of these elements in horizontal
regard could be carried out. In that, special attention should be paid to thresholds size
foi-
certain
elements. The most important problems, which can be met in that regard, are relat¬
ed to:
-
Choice of the optimum methods and priorities of climatic regionalization which would
satisfy the great number of users, taking care to avoid unnecessary detailed and general¬
ized expositions in the final part;
-
Absence
of
standards
with
regard
to terminological definition of independently separat¬
ed entities; it can be said that the use of certain
taxonomic
units is quantitatively as well
as qualitatively, spatially and timely
disharmonie;
systemic solutions concerning hierar¬
chy and structure of spatial units are still lacking at present;
-
Choice of climatic elements; to date classifications were most often based on
2-3
ele¬
ments, rarely on several of them so that. Therefore, a complete picture of the single ele¬
ments based on the results arrived at cannot be obtained. Regionalization based on one
or several leading factors is simpler but their use can hardly add to better comprehen¬
sion of interactive relations which in fact are one of the essential factors of climate for¬
mation as well;
-
Possibilities for interpretation of every element in several ways, in fact the choice of sta¬
tistical indicators is often personal and mainly subjected to the purpose of regionaliza¬
tion intention;
-
Data bases and their combination with modern technology represent a technical and
servicing problem which in many regards aggravates the realization of the present sub¬
ject; at present the use of data furnished by automatic observation stations is out of
question;
-
The stations are unevenly and insufficiently distributed, especially in the mountains;
with a view to the fact that climate is frequently and alternatingly changed on elevated
territories a higher degree of generalization is necessary, which is usually classified as
„mountainous" or „alpine" climate;
-
Cartographic presentation of the results obtained (signs, colors, borders, combination
with diagrams etc.) is not standardized; regionalizations on
1: 50,000
ratio maps are
extremely rare;
-
Because of impossibility to present clearly, practically and concisely the entire processed
material relevant to all units, even the smallest ones, generalization once more becomes
obligatory.
The second principle is related to classification of weather situations, their types and
territorial distribution respectively. In that regard, a separate group of problems occurs as
it has previously been said. However, regardless of their large number, diversity and grav¬
ity it is interesting to mention that there are indications as to where certain borders should
be.
In
Šegota
opinion
(1976),
the central divergence line goes from
Velika Kanjiža
in
Hungary over
Slavonski Brod, Prijepolje
and Prizren. East
ofthat
line and north of the 43rd
parallel the northwest and west flowing prevails. One could suppose that formerly the men¬
tioned line most likely morphologically followed the
Zapadna
Morava
valley and that
towards east it was attached to the
Nišava
valley. Interestingly, the majority of domestic
authors of studies on the parts in our country, with slight deviations agree on the southern
border up to which
kősava
(south-east wind) prevails in cold periods of the year. In Serbia
kősava
blows up to Dimitrovgrad,
Niš,
KruŠevac, Kraljevo." (Milosavljević
1972).
It
involves areas of
Podunavlje
and Pomoravlje, areas north of Zlatibor, Kopaonik, Veliki Jas-
trebac,
Nišava
and areas west of Mali
Đerdap" (Radinović
1981)
etc. Looking once again at
fig.
23.
given by Alisov we see that his border of the European-continental and continen-
Summary
tal-
Mediterranean areas rather well coincides with the earlier mentioned disagreement
about allocation of
košava
that Shegota was speaking about. We could here add the results
about the
1931-1960
period obtained for the Atlas of Climate.
We have seen that the border between the regions III and IV is placed more to the
south of the previously mentioned position. We have also seen that the borer between two
precipitation regimes (S.
Ranković
1974)
is also positioned „approximately" in that area. If
we bear in mind that it resulted from studies of various elements (fronts, winds, air tem¬
perature, precipitations) an impression is imposed that the regional border between dom¬
ination of various air masses could be in that area. We should stress that in climatology the
border between certain territorial units is only rarely taken as the borderline. The question
is mainly about transitional belts of various widths. If the precipitation regime is put in the
forefront an impression is forced that the mentioned border is approximately positioned
more to the south. We have also seen that north of the 44th parallel there are no exceptions
in relation to observation stations with maritime pluvuiometric regime. It can be expected
that certain coincidence will occur if sub-criteria related to the secondary precipitation
maximum are introduced or defined.
The lack of consideration devoted to other clirnatological elements has a great influ¬
ence upon the quality of research. It implies before all to: insulation, snow carpet, number
of characteristic days regarding certain elements. However, it turned out already at the
beginning that much denser network of stations is necessary for a more concrete determi¬
nation of the position of certain regions.
In spite of a relatively small territory, it is certain that we are faced with a great dif¬
ferentiation and diversity of certain types of climate. They are a consequence in the first
place of itemization of the relief and interweaving of the air masses of various properties.
In the context of the given subject, it was not possible to take into strictly separate consid¬
eration the mentioned influences, exclusively in the framework of land configuration or
atmospheric processes. In fact the question is about a close mutual relation and effect con¬
sequentially reflected on climatic elements. Numerous specificities concerning the position
of certain stations could direct investigation towards largely detailed approach from which
the processes giving climatic characteristics in the regional sense could not be viewed. The
absence of instrumental measurements on relatively great surfaces on the other hand
deprives researchers of the necessary information, especially in the mountain and high
mountain zones. On the contrary, a more general approach, even at the level of a small
Republic like Serbia, carries in itself a danger of loosing opportunity to comprehend cor¬
responding characteristics of smaller entities. In the present paper an attempt was made to
overcome, Pointing to the existing influences and critically reviewing the most important
results in that field, in essence a possible way of regionalization was suggested. Develop¬
ment of contemporary methodology opens up new possibilities regarding anticipated
behavior of certain climatic elements in the forthcoming years. With that possibility,
regional climatology shall get a new dimension including one of the most important per¬
spective possibilities.
Vladimir
Jakšić
started meteorological observations in Serbia in January
1. 1848.
Thanks to his efforts a system of
20
meteorological stations was working in
1856,
and in
1857.
even
27
stations were working which probably represented the densest system in the
world for that period of time. Unfortunately, according to estimates of the current
clima-
tologists, it isn't possible to attach these valuable observations to the subsequent series of
observations made in meteorological observatory in Belgrade because of
non representa-
tivness of the locations and difference in methodology of measuring.
The data for Belgrade were analysed from the Meteorological observatory situated in
the Karadjordje Park on the altitude of
132
m, in wider city heart, the measurements of
which have been done under the unique methodology since
1887.
There have been noticed
that the lowest temperature decade values were at the beginning of measuring
(11.17 °С),
and the highest in the last decade of the
20.
century
(12.55
''C). That is in keeping with the
general idea about global temperature increase in the
20.
century. The precipitation
changes analysis shows that the driest decade was in
1901 -1910
while the moistest one was
in
1971 -1980.
In addition to that there have clearly been noticed four cycles by two
decades in observed period. By the method of linear trend we could get that the mean tem¬
perature change in period
1891 » 2000.
was
+ 0.089 °С
per decade, while the precipitations
were changing under the rate of
+ 5.188
mm per decade. In general, the climate on the ter¬
ritory of Belgrade looking the observed period became warmer and insignificantly moister.
We could say that the data for Belgrade are not reliable because of the development
of so-called urban island of heat. Modern researches show that the values of almost all cli¬
matic elements in the city are significantly changed. However, the most noticeable is the
city effect on the air temperature. Trying to define the values of Belgrade island of heat, we
started from the supposition that the decade temperature changes in some „unurban"
meteorological station would be exclusively a reflection of variability of the thermic regime,
and that the same ones are also under the influence of urbanization in Belgrade. In that
case the temperature difference between both stations could be the consequence of urban¬
ization of Belgrade.
Station called
Rimski Šančevi
(near
Novi
Sad) was chosen as a comparing station. The
results of decade temperatures observing showed that the difference between the last and
the first decade in Belgrade was
1.4
''C. However, in
Rimski Šančevi
the difference was only
0.4
''C. That already points to the urban temperature increase in Belgrade. It has also been
seen that the last decade in Belgrade is warmer than the mean values of tlae whole series for
0.87 °С,
while in
Rimski Šančevi
the same decade is warmer for only
0.46 °С.
The average
change between the decades is
0.14 °С
in Belgrade while in
Rimski Šančevi
the same change
is only
0.04
'С.
Observing the differences between simultaneous decade temperatures in Belgrade
and
Rimski
„anèevi
an increase is clearly noticed. If we assumed that the difference of
0.1 °С
between the first decades is a reflection of natural influences, then the difference of
1
Л
°С
between-the last decades would be
1.0 °С,
reduced for the value of „unurban" difference
between the first decades. It could represent the size of growth of the urban island of heat
in Belgrade for the observed period.
During the last decades the growth of authors interested in the problems of changes
and climate variability have been noticed in the world climatological literature. Technical
and technological development have brought new concerns to the mankind
-
global pollu-
Summary
tion
of the atmosphere caused by combustion of fossil fuel and CO2 emission. Thanks to
numerous researches, it
bacarne
clear that the emission could have smaller or larger conse¬
quences on climate, in dependence on models that were used.
In the system of
20
main meteorological stations, conditionally arranged homoge¬
neously on the territory of Serbia, we observed simple differentiations of mean tempera¬
ture of the last and the first decade
(1991-2000.
and
1951-1960).
We also used a method
of linear trend in order to define more precisely the size of changes. According to the first
method it was gotten that it came to the increase of temperature in
16
stations while in
4
stations there were no greater changes. By method of the linear trend, a little different
results are gotten. Namely, the trend is positve in
15
stations, and it is negative in
5
stations.
The greatest increase made stations in the east, turned towards
Vlaška
vally, as well as parts
of
Vojvodina
(north) and northwestern part of Serbia. However, in the parts of south and
in the southeastern Serbia, the values of the linear trend are negative
(Radovanović, Ducić,
2004).
General temperature increase in north and east, but also the decrease in southeast led
us to search for eventual circulational reasons of temperature change. Trying to define the
circulational factor we used the typology that Dzerdzevski
(1975)
developed. On the basis
of synoptic material he separated three basic types of circulation in north hemisphere, with
its characteristical schedule of air masses. These are: zonal, meridian south and meridian
north. Kononova
(1989)
cited that each of these types caused certain thermic exceptions in
Europe. The zonal type caused exception above normal, meridian south around normal
and meridian north caused exception below normal.
In order to connect temperature changes in Serbia with the changes of types of cir¬
culation, we „divided" the circulation epochs on decades, assuming that the relative dom¬
ination of certain type will still be clearly noticed on a decade level. Then we attributed each
type a certain sign of change, depending on its thermic characteristics. We attributed sign
(+1)
to the zonal type, and to the meridian south sign
(0).
According to Kononova's data
there were no meridian north epoch with a sign
(-1)
in observed period.
The coefficient of correlation between changes of dominant types of circulation and
mean decade temperature for Serbia as a whole is
0.8,
and for rounded off values
0.86.
Thus
it results from all of this that the temperature increase in the last decade of the
20.
century
is dominantly caused by the change of type of the circulation from meridian south to the
»warmer" zonal type.
Trying to check if eventually seasonal changes would point to the CO2 signal, we also
prepared those data for all stations, as a simple difference of the last and the first decade in
the second half of
20.
century. For comperison of the results we used two paleoclimatic
analogues, according to which temperatures in our regions in holocene optimum (which
is the model of the climate of the future appeared as a consequence of carbon dioxide) in
relation to the current had larger increase in winter than in summer. Models of IPCC show
the same.
Out of data analysis it comes that the mean value of changes is the largest in spring
(0.7 °С)
and summer
(0.6 °С)
for the whole territory of Serbia, which doesn't fit into the
paleoclimatic analogues. In autumn and winter there aren't almost any changes. Temper-
'ature
decrease in winter is noticed in
9
out of
20
stations, which doesn't fit not only into
the paleoclimatic analogues, but into the concept of greenhouse effect, too. The coefficient
of correlation for some seasons with changes of dominant types of circulation gave the best
results for summer.
It is possible that the regional factors are less expressed in summer (the Adriatic Sea,
Black Sea, the mountain
massives
and large valleys) and because of that the connections
with the global circulation are better. The same shows a fact that the largest increase in
spring is stressed on extreme east, turned to the
Vlaška
valley and the Black Sea. Similar to
that, positive exceptions in autumn are mainly concentrated along west edge of Serbia
turned to the Dinaric mountain system and the Adriatic Sea.
In keeping with the previous discussions connected with fixing the decade trends of
air temperature in Serbia and their causes, the similar was done for the precipitations, too.
However, the great disagreements in models make harder the estimate if an anthropogenic
influence could be registered in the changes of precipitations. If we observe regionally, we
could see that the stations with growth of precipitations are located on southwest, west and
northwest of Serbia
(Novi Pazar, Sjenica,
Łożnica,
Novi
Sad and Palić),
therefore closer to
the source of humidity (the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea). Three out of four stations
with the largest reduction of precipitation (over
100
mm) are situated in southeast and east
Serbia
(Vranje, Zaječar
and Negotin), therefore „deeper" in land. We could make a con¬
clusion that the reasons for changes of precipitation in the observed period should above
all look for in the changes of atmosphere circulation.
The holder of researches on the contemporary climate variabilities in the former FRJ
was the Federal Meteorological Bureaux (FMB). In their projections people from FMB
were dominantly turned to the future changes of precipitations in our regions. They
assumed that the decrease of precipitations in decade
1981-1990
comparing with the pre¬
vious one was a certain consequence of anthropogenic influence as well as that the
observed trend would be continued in the future. According to our opinion one must be
very careful in explaining the high values of precipitation
percents
in decade
1981 - 1990.
because using the data for precipitations for Belgrade one could see that the base decade for
the calculation
(1971-1980)
was the moistest decade in the history of measuring.
We also have to be very careful while explanining trends of changing the precipita¬
tions. In the reports of IPCC it is said that there were certain regional differences. The lines
of annual precipitations in Europe didn't show any significant trend, especially after
1950.
While talking about possible future changes of precipitations in a document of IPCC is said
that summer precipitations could stay unchanged in many parts of Europe and that some
models showed decrease in the Mediterranean region and east and middle Europe, while
others suggested the increase of summer precipitations.
The researches of FMB have developed an original methodology for separating the
„half drought" regions. They started from Budiko
-
Leltau index of drought defined as a
relation among average annual net radiation, precipitations and latent heat of evaporation.
On the basis of data for Belgrade» the limitted value of precipitations for the half drought
areas was determined and it was
530
mm. The forecast for
2000
year shows that northeast¬
ern part of the country would satisfy given criterion for the half drought areas. In the next
Summary
decade, up to
2010.
this area would be enlarged towards south west, and two new half
drought areas would emerge, one in the eastern, and another in the southeastern and south
Serbia. Up to
2020
the half drought areas would enlarge at the same direction as well as in
the previous decade, so that in the eastern and southeastern part of the country the large
areas would have the characteristics of half drought areas. The area would be limited by
Negotin
-
Majdanpek
-
Kragujevac
-
Župrija
-
Prokuplje
-
Josanièka
Banja
-
Tutin
-
Pre-
ševo líne.
What is going to happen in the future with the main generator of climatic changes
-
the changes of the Solar activity? Shatten and Sofia said that in the last
50
years the Sun had
shown the largest activity since Galileo observations. They also said that if the following
Solar cycle (no.
23)
showed the falling trend, that would mean that the Solar activity would
have the opposite course from the one that used to exist in the last
400
years, that is, it
would come to its general fall. Shatten thought that if the forecast about reduced Solar
activity made true, that would mean that it would come to lessen of the global warming,
expected as a consequence of the greenhouse effect.
Timo Niroma
analyzed the cyclicity of
the Solar activity in as he said two millenium's historical perspective. As a part of that
analysis he separated the cycles of lasting from
55-60
years connecting them with the cli¬
mate variabilities. According to him, the decade of 1990's belonged to warm phase, with
maximum that culminated in
1998.
He expected that the Solar activity would start reduc¬
ing the intensity and that the warm phase would be finished in the second decade of the
21.
century. The last (warm) cycle strated in
1925,
and according to Niroma's prognosis it
would end in
2015.
after which we could enter into colder period.
What would happen to the changes of circulation types in the future? Kononova
found that in the change of circulating epochs in the
19
and the
20
century general laws
have been seen: zonal and meridian epochs have been changing but one zonal has been
changed by meridian north epoch, and the following zonal has been changed by meridian
south epoch (similar to the pendulum moving). On the basis of it she gave a prognosis that
the conteporary period
(1980*8)
was a transitional one towards the new zonal epoch of the
end of the
20.
and the beginning of the
21.
century.
In general there are
7
circulating epochs in period
1801-1980
with different length of
lasting. The first meridian north epoch started in the
18.
century and its length was unre¬
liable, while the last meridian south up to 1980's was still lasting. Thus five epochs have
precisely determined lasting of
14-40
years.
If Kononova is right and if the regular change contineus, then the ongoing zonal
epoch that started at the end of
1
980's and at the beginning of 1990's should replace merid¬
ian north which brings deviation of temperature below the average. Since the zonal type
(current) is the warmest, and meridian north the coldest one, this change of types we could
go through as a sudden and strong cold spell.
Unies
this change of types is very likely it is
less obvious when will it happen. However, in the previous
180
years the largest epoch last¬
ing was
40
years. If we rely on this we could eventually assume that this change would hap¬
pen at least till the end of 30's of the
21.
century. However, this is the upper limit, of course.
The shortest period was
14
years, and we have passed that length. Thus the lasting of the
current zonal type would the most probably be between these two options.
At the end let's mention Milan
Stvančević,
an engineer with a completely new and origi¬
nal approach concerning scientific researches, among others on the field of prognostic meteor¬
ology. It could be said that the ideas he supports at least act as if to provoke because they are
confronting in many places with generally accepted laws in climatology and meteorology. It cer-
tanly would be many discussions on the results of his researches. The whole opus of M. Ste-
vanćević
could be rejected and that, of course, would not be for the first time for the science.
However, it is impossible to overlook the comparative analysis of forecasted and measured val¬
ues (figure
27)
which tall« itself about the validity of used methodology. All the sooner the sim¬
ilar forecasts also emerged several times later with relatively great success, too. |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Ducić, Vladan Radovanović, Milan |
| author_facet | Ducić, Vladan Radovanović, Milan |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Ducić, Vladan |
| author_variant | v d vd m r mr |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV022228617 |
| callnumber-first | Q - Science |
| callnumber-label | QC989 |
| callnumber-raw | QC989.S47 |
| callnumber-search | QC989.S47 |
| callnumber-sort | QC 3989 S47 |
| callnumber-subject | QC - Physics |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)85774231 (DE-599)BVBBV022228617 |
| dewey-full | 551.6 |
| dewey-hundreds | 500 - Natural sciences and mathematics |
| dewey-ones | 551 - Geology, hydrology, meteorology |
| dewey-raw | 551.6 |
| dewey-search | 551.6 |
| dewey-sort | 3551.6 |
| dewey-tens | 550 - Earth sciences |
| discipline | Geologie / Paläontologie |
| discipline_str_mv | Geologie / Paläontologie |
| edition | 1. izd. |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | Serbia Climate Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Serbia Climate Serbien |
| id | DE-604.BV022228617 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T16:31:52Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:52:51Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 8617122900 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015439738 |
| oclc_num | 85774231 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | 212 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 2005 |
| publishDateSearch | 2005 |
| publishDateSort | 2005 |
| publisher | Zavod za Udžbenike i Nastavna Sredstva |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Ducić, Vladan Verfasser aut Klima Srbije Vladan Ducić ; Milan Radovanović 1. izd. Beograd Zavod za Udžbenike i Nastavna Sredstva 2005 212 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier In kyrill. Schr., serb. Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 gnd rswk-swf Serbia Climate Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 gnd rswk-swf Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 g Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 s DE-604 Radovanović, Milan Verfasser aut Digitalisierung BSBMuenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015439738&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015439738&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Ducić, Vladan Radovanović, Milan Klima Srbije Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4031170-3 (DE-588)4054598-2 |
| title | Klima Srbije |
| title_auth | Klima Srbije |
| title_exact_search | Klima Srbije |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Klima Srbije |
| title_full | Klima Srbije Vladan Ducić ; Milan Radovanović |
| title_fullStr | Klima Srbije Vladan Ducić ; Milan Radovanović |
| title_full_unstemmed | Klima Srbije Vladan Ducić ; Milan Radovanović |
| title_short | Klima Srbije |
| title_sort | klima srbije |
| topic | Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Klima Serbia Climate Serbien |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015439738&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015439738&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ducicvladan klimasrbije AT radovanovicmilan klimasrbije |