Survival in changing environments: modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
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Leipzig [u.a.]
UFZ - Umweltforschungszentrum Leipzig-Halle
2002 [erschienen] 2003
|
| Schriftenreihe: | UFZ-Bericht
2003,7 |
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | IV, 105 S. graph. Darst. |
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| adam_text | Titel: Survival in changing environments
Autor: Wichmann, Matthias
Jahr: 2003
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract
Introduction
1.1 General introduction................................
1.2 Subject of the study, aims and methods..
13 Structure of this thesis______________
2 Climate change driven modifications in precipitation affect population
persistence of raptors in arid savanna_______________________________7_
2.1 Abstract______________________________________________________7
11 Introduction___________________________________________________7
23 Subject of the study, study area and methods__________________________9
2.3.1 Subject of the study 9
2.3.2 Study area 10
2.3.3 Model description 10
2.3.4 Individual-oriented model 11
2.3.5 Stochasticity 11
2.3.6 Output parameters 13
2.3.7 Sensitivity analysis 14
2.3.8 Simulation experiments 16
2.3.9 Auto-correlation analyses 18
2.4 Sensitivity analysis: Results and Discussion__________________________18
2.4.1 Demographic parameters 18
2.4.2 Environmental parameters 20
23 Results of simulation experiments—~~~~~~~._................_^......................—.22
2.6 Discussion____________________________________________________26
2.6.1 Model selection 26
2.6.2 Tawny Eagle population persistence under climate change 27
2.6.3 Periodically fluctuating precipitation 28
2.6.4 Extinction theory 29
2.6.5 Escaping in space? 29
2.6.6 Studying the impact of climate change on population dynamics 30
2.6.7 Conclusion 31
2.7 Link to the proceeding chapter..............................................................................31
3 THE BREEDING SUCCESS OF ARID AREA RAPTORS IN RELATION TO PRECIPITATION 33
3.1 Abstract__________________________________________________33
3.2 Introduction............................................................................................................ 33
3 J The theoretical approach_____________________________________34
3.4 Application on available field data ............................................................. 36
3.5 Conclusion________________________________________________38
3.6 Link to the proceeding chapter ............................................................................. 38
4 STRUCTURAL DIVERSITY IN ARID SAVANNA IMPACTS THE PERSISTENCE OF RAPTORS 39
4.1 Abstract______________________________________________________39
42 Introduction___________________________________________________39
43 Subject of the study, study area and methods ..„.„...„.„.„.......„„-„„„...„..„..„ 41
4.3.1 Subject of the study 41
4.3.2 Study area 42
4.3.3 Model description 42
4.3.4 Scenarios of non-random tree distribution 46
4.3.5 Output parameters of the model 46
4A Results and sensitivity of the model_________________________________47
4.4.1 Model sensitivity: number of attempts to find a territory 47
4.4.2 Limitation of potential nesting trees (PNT) 48
4.4.3 Effects on persistence time 49
4.4.4 Scenarios of non-random tree distribution 49
4.4.5 Model sensitivity to various distribution modes 54
4.4.6 Critical tree densities for various distribution scenarios 55
4S Discussion-------------------------------------------------------------------------------56
4.5.1 Spatial mechanisms influencing the survival of tawny eagles 56
4.5.2 Critical tree densities for survival of tawny eagles 58
4.5.3 Natural tree distribution and tawny eagles 59
4.5.4 Current land use practice, structural diversity and tawny eagles 59
4.5.5 The potential impact of structural diversity on species survival 60
4.5.6 Conclusions 61
4.6 Link to the proceeding chapter ...™..».™.»..™.m.~.....™™.-«™........»»............... 61
5 EXTINCTION RISK IN PERIODICALLY FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTS________________ _
5.1 Abstract______________________________________________________63
5.2 Introduction___________________________________________________63
53 Methods______________________________________________________64
5.3.1 Model description 64
5.3.2 Scenarios of environmental noise 65
5.3.3 Noise color analyses 67
5.4 Results________________________________________________________67
5.4.1 Standardized Persistence Time (TJ 67
5.4.2 Auto-correlation 67
5.4.3 Floaters per Time Step 68
5.5 Discussion ...»..™.™.«........................................................«.........................««........7O
5.5.1 General results for periodically fluctuating environments 70
5.5.2 Auto-correlation in periodically fluctuating environments 71
5.5.3 Density regulation in periodically fluctuating environments 71
5.5.4 Conclusion: the importance ofmonotonic trends in the environment 73
5.6 Link to the proceeding chapter..............................................................................74
6 Studying the effects of colored noise: an alternative method of
generating time series with given color and variance___________________75_
6.1 Abstract____________________________________________________________75
6.2 Introduction________________________________________________________75
63 Scaling to expected variance »..««..»»..^.««™.._..»»».....»..«..~..™..™.m™«»m..76
6.3.1 Scaling to expected asymptotic variance 76
6.3.2 Scaling to expected variance over a certain time scale T 76
6.3.3 Scaling to asymptotic variance versus scaling to a certain time scale T 77
6.3.4 Applicability of Equation (6.2) and (6.3) 77
6.4 Scaling to the actual variance_______________________________________78
6.5 Impact on the calculated extinction risk.~.™™™™_~™™~.^.««_..™™™..82
6.6 Discussion_______________________________________________________84
6.6.1 Impacts on extinction risk 84
6.6.2 Applicability ofrescaling to the actual variance 84
6.6.3 Further descriptive attributes of time series 85
6.6.4 Conclusion 86
7 Summary____________________________________________________________8J_
7.1 Summarizing discussion and future perspectives ~.~~~~~~.~.............................87
7.2
Deutsche Zusammenfassung 91
Acknowledgements 93
References 95
Appendix__________________________________________________________________105
in
TABLE OF FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 2.1: Simplified AQUIQUA flow chart..........................................................................12
Table 2.1: Model parameter.....................................................................................................15
Figure 2.2: Coincidence of precipitation and extinction events...............................................21
Figure 2.3: Variability in Tm....................................................................................................22
Figure 2.4: Impacts of mean, CV and auto-correlation in precipitation...................................24
Figure 2.5: Impact of varying survival rates............................................................................25
Figure 2.6: Periodically fluctuating precipitation.....................................................................26
Table 3.1: Breeding success, precipitation and territory size in arid area raptors....................35
Figure 3.1: Relating breeding success to territory size and precipitation................................37
Figure 4.1: Simplified flow chart of the spatial model version................................................44
Figure 4.2: Definition of neighboring cells..............................................................................45
Figure 4.3: Model sensitivity to number of attempts to find a territory...................................47
Figure 4.4: Potential nesting trees depend on tree density.......................................................49
Figure 4.5: Limitation of Ts by tree density.............................................................................50
Figure 4.6: Analyzing patterns of varying tree distribution.....................................................52
Figure 4.7: PNT for varying tree distribution...........................................................................55
Figure 4.8: Impact of tree distribution on Ts............................................................................57
Figure 5.1: Patterns of periodicity............................................................................................66
Figure 5.2: Impacts of period length and pattern on Ts...........................................................69
Figure 5.3: Impacts of auto-correlation and pattern on Ts.......................................................69
Figure 5.4: Periodic pattern, extinction risk and density regulation........................................72
Figure 6.1: Variabilty in average variances for samples of time series fragments.................80
Figure 6.2: Deviation of variances of particular time series fragments...................................81
Figure 6.3: Impacts of the reseating variance technique on extinction risk.............................83
Figure Al: Mean and variability of standard deviation in auto-correlated time series..........105
rv
|
| adam_txt |
Titel: Survival in changing environments
Autor: Wichmann, Matthias
Jahr: 2003
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract
Introduction
1.1 General introduction.
1.2 Subject of the study, aims and methods.
13 Structure of this thesis_
2 Climate change driven modifications in precipitation affect population
persistence of raptors in arid savanna_7_
2.1 Abstract_7
11 Introduction_7
23 Subject of the study, study area and methods_9
2.3.1 Subject of the study 9
2.3.2 Study area 10
2.3.3 Model description 10
2.3.4 Individual-oriented model 11
2.3.5 Stochasticity 11
2.3.6 Output parameters 13
2.3.7 Sensitivity analysis 14
2.3.8 Simulation experiments 16
2.3.9 Auto-correlation analyses 18
2.4 Sensitivity analysis: Results and Discussion_18
2.4.1 Demographic parameters 18
2.4.2 Environmental parameters 20
23 Results of simulation experiments—~~~~~~~._._^.—.22
2.6 Discussion_26
2.6.1 Model selection 26
2.6.2 Tawny Eagle population persistence under climate change 27
2.6.3 Periodically fluctuating precipitation 28
2.6.4 Extinction theory 29
2.6.5 Escaping in space? 29
2.6.6 Studying the impact of climate change on population dynamics 30
2.6.7 Conclusion 31
2.7 Link to the proceeding chapter.31
3 THE BREEDING SUCCESS OF ARID AREA RAPTORS IN RELATION TO PRECIPITATION 33
3.1 Abstract_33
3.2 Introduction. 33
3 J The theoretical approach_34
3.4 Application on available field data . 36
3.5 Conclusion_38
3.6 Link to the proceeding chapter . 38
4 STRUCTURAL DIVERSITY IN ARID SAVANNA IMPACTS THE PERSISTENCE OF RAPTORS 39
4.1 Abstract_39
42 Introduction_39
43 Subject of the study, study area and methods .„.„.„.„.„.„„-„„„.„.„.„ 41
4.3.1 Subject of the study 41
4.3.2 Study area 42
4.3.3 Model description 42
4.3.4 Scenarios of non-random tree distribution 46
4.3.5 Output parameters of the model 46
4A Results and sensitivity of the model_47
4.4.1 Model sensitivity: number of attempts to find a territory 47
4.4.2 Limitation of potential nesting trees (PNT) 48
4.4.3 Effects on persistence time 49
4.4.4 Scenarios of non-random tree distribution 49
4.4.5 Model sensitivity to various distribution modes 54
4.4.6 Critical tree densities for various distribution scenarios 55
4S Discussion-------------------------------------------------------------------------------56
4.5.1 Spatial mechanisms influencing the survival of tawny eagles 56
4.5.2 Critical tree densities for survival of tawny eagles 58
4.5.3 Natural tree distribution and tawny eagles 59
4.5.4 Current land use practice, structural diversity and tawny eagles 59
4.5.5 The potential impact of structural diversity on species survival 60
4.5.6 Conclusions 61
4.6 Link to the proceeding chapter .™.».™.».™.m.~.™™.-«™.»». 61
5 EXTINCTION RISK IN PERIODICALLY FLUCTUATING ENVIRONMENTS_ _
5.1 Abstract_63
5.2 Introduction_63
53 Methods_64
5.3.1 Model description 64
5.3.2 Scenarios of environmental noise 65
5.3.3 Noise color analyses 67
5.4 Results_67
5.4.1 Standardized Persistence Time (TJ 67
5.4.2 Auto-correlation 67
5.4.3 Floaters per Time Step 68
5.5 Discussion .».™.™.«.«.««.7O
5.5.1 General results for periodically fluctuating environments 70
5.5.2 Auto-correlation in periodically fluctuating environments 71
5.5.3 Density regulation in periodically fluctuating environments 71
5.5.4 Conclusion: the importance ofmonotonic trends in the environment 73
5.6 Link to the proceeding chapter.74
6 Studying the effects of colored noise: an alternative method of
generating time series with given color and variance_75_
6.1 Abstract_75
6.2 Introduction_75
63 Scaling to expected variance ».««.»».^.««™._.»»».».«.~.™.™.m™«»m.76
6.3.1 Scaling to expected asymptotic variance 76
6.3.2 Scaling to expected variance over a certain time scale T 76
6.3.3 Scaling to asymptotic variance versus scaling to a certain time scale T 77
6.3.4 Applicability of Equation (6.2) and (6.3) 77
6.4 Scaling to the actual variance_78
6.5 Impact on the calculated extinction risk.~.™™™™_~™™~.^.««_.™™™.82
6.6 Discussion_84
6.6.1 Impacts on extinction risk 84
6.6.2 Applicability ofrescaling to the actual variance 84
6.6.3 Further descriptive attributes of time series 85
6.6.4 Conclusion 86
7 Summary_8J_
7.1 Summarizing discussion and future perspectives ~.~~~~~~.~.87
7.2
Deutsche Zusammenfassung 91
Acknowledgements 93
References 95
Appendix_105
in
TABLE OF FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 2.1: Simplified AQUIQUA flow chart.12
Table 2.1: Model parameter.15
Figure 2.2: Coincidence of precipitation and extinction events.21
Figure 2.3: Variability in Tm.22
Figure 2.4: Impacts of mean, CV and auto-correlation in precipitation.24
Figure 2.5: Impact of varying survival rates.25
Figure 2.6: Periodically fluctuating precipitation.26
Table 3.1: Breeding success, precipitation and territory size in arid area raptors.35
Figure 3.1: Relating breeding success to territory size and precipitation.37
Figure 4.1: Simplified flow chart of the spatial model version.44
Figure 4.2: Definition of neighboring cells.45
Figure 4.3: Model sensitivity to number of attempts to find a territory.47
Figure 4.4: Potential nesting trees depend on tree density.49
Figure 4.5: Limitation of Ts by tree density.50
Figure 4.6: Analyzing patterns of varying tree distribution.52
Figure 4.7: PNT for varying tree distribution.55
Figure 4.8: Impact of tree distribution on Ts.57
Figure 5.1: Patterns of periodicity.66
Figure 5.2: Impacts of period length and pattern on Ts.69
Figure 5.3: Impacts of auto-correlation and pattern on Ts.69
Figure 5.4: Periodic pattern, extinction risk and density regulation.72
Figure 6.1: Variabilty in average variances for samples of time series fragments.80
Figure 6.2: Deviation of variances of particular time series fragments.81
Figure 6.3: Impacts of the reseating variance technique on extinction risk.83
Figure Al: Mean and variability of standard deviation in auto-correlated time series.105
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| spelling | Wichmann, Matthias Verfasser aut Survival in changing environments modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna Leipzig [u.a.] UFZ - Umweltforschungszentrum Leipzig-Halle 2002 [erschienen] 2003 IV, 105 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier UFZ-Bericht 2003,7 Zugl.: Potsdam, Univ., Diss., 2002 Raubadler (DE-588)4721939-7 gnd rswk-swf Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd rswk-swf Trockensavanne (DE-588)4128583-9 gnd rswk-swf Populationsdynamik (DE-588)4046803-3 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Populationsdynamik (DE-588)4046803-3 s DE-604 Trockensavanne (DE-588)4128583-9 s Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 s Raubadler (DE-588)4721939-7 s UFZ-Bericht 2003,7 (DE-604)BV010126205 2003,7 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015383360&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Wichmann, Matthias Survival in changing environments modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna UFZ-Bericht Raubadler (DE-588)4721939-7 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Trockensavanne (DE-588)4128583-9 gnd Populationsdynamik (DE-588)4046803-3 gnd |
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| title | Survival in changing environments modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna |
| title_auth | Survival in changing environments modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna |
| title_exact_search | Survival in changing environments modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Survival in changing environments modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna |
| title_full | Survival in changing environments modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna |
| title_fullStr | Survival in changing environments modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna |
| title_full_unstemmed | Survival in changing environments modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna |
| title_short | Survival in changing environments |
| title_sort | survival in changing environments modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna |
| title_sub | modeling the impact of climate change and land use on raptors in arid savanna |
| topic | Raubadler (DE-588)4721939-7 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Trockensavanne (DE-588)4128583-9 gnd Populationsdynamik (DE-588)4046803-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Raubadler Klimaänderung Trockensavanne Populationsdynamik Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015383360&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV010126205 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT wichmannmatthias survivalinchangingenvironmentsmodelingtheimpactofclimatechangeandlanduseonraptorsinaridsavanna |