Verfügbarkeit: Analyzing elections

Analyzing elections:

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser:	Morton, Rebecca B. 1954- (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	New York [u.a.] Norton 2006
Ausgabe:	1. ed.
Schriftenreihe:	The new institutionalism in American politics
Schlagworte:	aElections > zUnited States aVoting > zUnited States aPolitical campaigns > zUnited States Wahlverhalten Wahlkampf USA
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Beschreibung:	Literaturverz. S. 645 -672
Beschreibung:	XII, 690 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt.
ISBN:	039397829X 9780393978292

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adam_text	Contents Acknowledgments xiii 1. How Elections Rule American Politics 3 Bush versus Gore, September 11, and American Elections 3 Actors and Institutions 5 Election Games 8 The Plan of the Book 9 The Message of the Book 12 A Note to the Reader 13 Part I: Fundamentals 17 2. Understanding Turnout 19 Three Things 19 Three Puzzles 21 Consumption versus Investment 28 Togetherness: The Group Investment Benefits of Voting 29 Consumption and Citizen Duty Redux 33 Voting Rationally and Turning Out Irrationally 41 The Forty-Five-Year Lag Revisited 45 The Final Puzzle — Why Did Turnout Decline in the 1970s? 50 What We Know 55 What We Don t Know: Why Turnout Rebounded in 2004 56 Study Questions and Problems 56 Appendix to Chapter 2 57 Vlil CONTENTS 3. Trends in Voter Mobilization 62 Mobilization Strategies in the 2004 Election 62 The Good, the Bad, and the Institutions 72 Making Voting Cheap and Easy 74 Financing Turnout 84 What We Know 85 What We Don t Know: Candidates and Parties 86 Study Questions and Problems 86 4. Candidates, Primaries, and Ideological Divergence 90 Brothers in Office 90 Why Moderation Attracts in U.S. Elections 91 Moderation: Virtue or Vice? 96 A Battle for the Left 101 How Parties Affect Candidates Positions 102 Uncertainty and Extremism 108 Variations in Primary Systems 113 Opening Primaries and Party Control 116 Ambition, Ideology, and Divergence 120 What We Know 124 What We Don t Know: Red States versus Blue States 124 Study Questions and Problems 125 5. Polarized over Policy or Voting on Valence? 128 A War between the States? 128 The Arguments behind the Polarized View: A Closer Look 137 Income Inequality, Immigration, and Polarization 170 Do Voters Base Choices on Issues or Abilities? 172 What We Know 178 What We Don t Know: What Money Does 178 Study Questions and Problems 179 Part II: Money and the Mass Media 183 6. How Campaigns Are Financed 185 The Desperate Man 185 Who Makes Contributions? 187 Federal Campaign Finance Regulations 190 Giving to Elect or to Receive? 197 Giving to Elect 199 Giving to Receive 202 CONTENTS IX Evidence on Quid Pro Quo Contributions 207 Coordination and the Decisiveness of Money 209 Policy versus Service Redux 212 What We Know 213 What We Don t Know: Opening Up the Black Box 213 Study Questions and Problems 214 7. How Campaign Money Affects Voters 217 Inside the Black Box: Indirect Influences 217 Inside the Black Box: Direct Influences 221 Empirical Evidence on Campaign Advertising 231 What We Know 242 What We Don t Know: Other Sources of Information 243 Study Questions and Problems 243 8. The Mass Media and Voters Information 247 Candidate Information and the Media 247 A Biased Information Source? 250 The Sources and Effects of Media Bias 258 What We Know 281 What We Don t Know: A Referendum on Whom? 282 Study Questions and Problems 283 Part III: The Problems of Incomplete Information in Elections 289 9. Controlling the Behavior of Elected Officials 291 William Goodling s Unusual Election 291 A Return to Citizen Legislators 292 The Secret World of Incumbents 292 What the Voters May Not Know about Incumbents 294 Controlling Incumbents by Getting Information 299 Controlling Elected Officials on the Basis of Little Information 301 Empirical Evidence 304 Retrospective Voting and the Economy 306 Retrospective Voting and Parties 310 Should Incumbency Be Limited? 312 The Puzzle of the Increase in Term Limits 316 Voters Changing the Electoral Calendar 317 Referenda and Initiatives 321 Elected versus Appointed Officials 323 X CONTENTS What We Know 326 What We Don t Know: What Voters Want 327 Study Questions and Problems 328 10. Measuring Public Opinion 332 Psephology Failures 332 Public Opinion Polls and Elections 334 Show Me the Money 347 Election Night and Projecting Winners 353 Forecasting Elections before Campaigns Begin 368 What Do We Learn about Elections from Psephology Failures? 374 Do Elected Officials Read Polls? 374 Retrospective Voting and Public Opinion Polls 377 What Do Public Opinion Polls Tell Elected Officials? 381 What We Know 386 What We Don t Know: Other Reasons Why Goodling s Election Was Special 387 Study Questions and Problems 388 Part IV: Federal Elections 395 11. Congressional Elections 397 Trying to Make a Difference 397 Apportionment and Membership of the House of Representatives 398 Redistricting 402 Gerrymandering 407 Does Gerrymandering Give Incumbents an Advantage? 423 The Decision to Run 426 Senate Elections 436 Are Congressional Races Special? 438 Not All Members Are Equal 439 Seniority, Elections, and Incumbency 441 Party Control, Positions of Power, and Upward Political Mobility 444 What We Know 446 What We Don t Know: Moving Down the Street 446 Study Questions and Problems 447 CONTENTS Xl 12. Presidential Primaries 452 Skipping Around or Sitting in Place? 452 What It Takes to Get on the Ballot in the Primaries 453 Hyperspeed 455 What It Takes to Get Nominated 458 How the Current System Works 471 How the Current System Works: The Evidence 484 Views of the State of Primaries 487 What We Know 489 What We Don t Know: The Next Step 489 Study Questions and Problems 490 13. Presidential Elections 494 Going West 494 How the Electoral College Works 495 The Electoral College and Campaigning 499 The Electoral Vote and Government Spending 513 Voters and Divided Government 515 What Happened to the Patient s Bill of Rights? 534 More Checks and Balances 535 What We Know 537 What We Don t Know: Other Parties and Candidates 538 Study Questions and Problems 538 Part V: Challenging the Majority 543 14. Minor Parties and Independent Candidates 545 Winning by Division 545 Voters Choices in Three-Candidate Elections 546 Choosing Whether to Party 550 Moving to More Than One Dimension 552 Can Minor-Party or Independent Candidates Succeed in U.S. Elections? 557 How Influential Are Minor-Party and Independent Candidates? 562 Do Voters Vote Strategically? 568 Party Labels as Information and Coordination Devices 573 Nonpartisan Elections, Majority Requirements, and Coordination 574 Not Unique but Rare ... 579 Xli CONTENTS The Implications for Policy Choices 580 How Failing to Support David Worley Hurt the Democrats in 2000 584 What We Know 585 What We Don t Know: The Major Political Parties and Civil Rights 586 Study Questions and Problems 588 15. Minority Voters and Representation 592 The Dilemma of Representation 592 What It Was Like 594 The South Today 595 The Current Rise in Diversity 599 Defining Minority Representation 600 Vote Denial 602 Vote Dilution 608 Vote Dilution, the Fifteenth Amendment, and the Voting Rights Act 616 Majority-Minority Districts and the Redistricting Debate of the 1990s 618 Majority-Minority Districts and Other Minorities 621 Are Majority-Minority Districts Good for Minorities? 625 The Future of Redistricting 632 Vote Denial Today 634 What We Know 637 Study Questions and Problems 637 16. The Future and Analyzing Elections 641 The 2008 Presidential Contest 641 The Message and What We Know Redux 642 References 645 Index 673
adam_txt	Contents Acknowledgments xiii 1. How Elections Rule American Politics 3 Bush versus Gore, September 11, and American Elections 3 Actors and Institutions 5 Election Games 8 The Plan of the Book 9 The Message of the Book 12 A Note to the Reader 13 Part I: Fundamentals 17 2. Understanding Turnout 19 Three Things 19 Three Puzzles 21 Consumption versus Investment 28 Togetherness: The Group Investment Benefits of Voting 29 Consumption and Citizen Duty Redux 33 Voting Rationally and Turning Out Irrationally 41 The Forty-Five-Year Lag Revisited 45 The Final Puzzle — Why Did Turnout Decline in the 1970s? 50 What We Know 55 What We Don't Know: Why Turnout Rebounded in 2004 56 Study Questions and Problems 56 Appendix to Chapter 2 57 Vlil CONTENTS 3. Trends in Voter Mobilization 62 Mobilization Strategies in the 2004 Election 62 The Good, the Bad, and the Institutions 72 Making Voting Cheap and Easy 74 Financing Turnout 84 What We Know 85 What We Don't Know: Candidates and Parties 86 Study Questions and Problems 86 4. Candidates, Primaries, and Ideological Divergence 90 Brothers in Office 90 Why Moderation Attracts in U.S. Elections 91 Moderation: Virtue or Vice? 96 A Battle for the Left 101 How Parties Affect Candidates' Positions 102 Uncertainty and Extremism 108 Variations in Primary Systems 113 Opening Primaries and Party Control 116 Ambition, Ideology, and Divergence 120 What We Know 124 What We Don't Know: Red States versus Blue States 124 Study Questions and Problems 125 5. Polarized over Policy or Voting on Valence? 128 A War between the States? 128 The Arguments behind the Polarized View: A Closer Look 137 Income Inequality, Immigration, and Polarization 170 Do Voters Base Choices on Issues or Abilities? 172 What We Know 178 What We Don't Know: What Money Does 178 Study Questions and Problems 179 Part II: Money and the Mass Media 183 6. How Campaigns Are Financed 185 The Desperate Man 185 Who Makes Contributions? 187 Federal Campaign Finance Regulations 190 Giving to Elect or to Receive? 197 Giving to Elect 199 Giving to Receive 202 CONTENTS IX Evidence on Quid Pro Quo Contributions 207 Coordination and the Decisiveness of Money 209 Policy versus Service Redux 212 What We Know 213 What We Don't Know: Opening Up the Black Box 213 Study Questions and Problems 214 7. How Campaign Money Affects Voters 217 Inside the Black Box: Indirect Influences 217 Inside the Black Box: Direct Influences 221 Empirical Evidence on Campaign Advertising 231 What We Know 242 What We Don't Know: Other Sources of Information 243 Study Questions and Problems 243 8. The Mass Media and Voters' Information 247 Candidate Information and the Media 247 A Biased Information Source? 250 The Sources and Effects of Media Bias 258 What We Know 281 What We Don't Know: A Referendum on Whom? 282 Study Questions and Problems 283 Part III: The Problems of Incomplete Information in Elections 289 9. Controlling the Behavior of Elected Officials 291 William Goodling's Unusual Election 291 A Return to Citizen Legislators 292 The Secret World of Incumbents 292 What the Voters May Not Know about Incumbents 294 Controlling Incumbents by Getting Information 299 Controlling Elected Officials on the Basis of Little Information 301 Empirical Evidence 304 Retrospective Voting and the Economy 306 Retrospective Voting and Parties 310 Should Incumbency Be Limited? 312 The Puzzle of the Increase in Term Limits 316 Voters' Changing the Electoral Calendar 317 Referenda and Initiatives 321 Elected versus Appointed Officials 323 X CONTENTS What We Know 326 What We Don't Know: What Voters Want 327 Study Questions and Problems 328 10. Measuring Public Opinion 332 Psephology Failures 332 Public Opinion Polls and Elections 334 Show Me the Money 347 Election Night and Projecting Winners 353 Forecasting Elections before Campaigns Begin 368 What Do We Learn about Elections from Psephology Failures? 374 Do Elected Officials Read Polls? 374 Retrospective Voting and Public Opinion Polls 377 What Do Public Opinion Polls Tell Elected Officials? 381 What We Know 386 What We Don't Know: Other Reasons Why Goodling's Election Was Special 387 Study Questions and Problems 388 Part IV: Federal Elections 395 11. Congressional Elections 397 Trying to Make a Difference 397 Apportionment and Membership of the House of Representatives 398 Redistricting 402 Gerrymandering 407 Does Gerrymandering Give Incumbents an Advantage? 423 The Decision to Run 426 Senate Elections 436 Are Congressional Races Special? 438 Not All Members Are Equal 439 Seniority, Elections, and Incumbency 441 Party Control, Positions of Power, and Upward Political Mobility 444 What We Know 446 What We Don't Know: Moving Down the Street 446 Study Questions and Problems 447 CONTENTS Xl 12. Presidential Primaries 452 Skipping Around or Sitting in Place? 452 What It Takes to Get on the Ballot in the Primaries 453 Hyperspeed 455 What It Takes to Get Nominated 458 How the Current System Works 471 How the Current System Works: The Evidence 484 Views of the State of Primaries 487 What We Know 489 What We Don't Know: The Next Step 489 Study Questions and Problems 490 13. Presidential Elections 494 Going West 494 How the Electoral College Works 495 The Electoral College and Campaigning 499 The Electoral Vote and Government Spending 513 Voters and Divided Government 515 What Happened to the Patient's Bill of Rights? 534 More Checks and Balances 535 What We Know 537 What We Don't Know: Other Parties and Candidates 538 Study Questions and Problems 538 Part V: Challenging the Majority 543 14. Minor Parties and Independent Candidates 545 Winning by Division 545 Voters' Choices in Three-Candidate Elections 546 Choosing Whether to Party 550 Moving to More Than One Dimension 552 Can Minor-Party or Independent Candidates Succeed in U.S. Elections? 557 How Influential Are Minor-Party and Independent Candidates? 562 Do Voters Vote Strategically? 568 Party Labels as Information and Coordination Devices 573 Nonpartisan Elections, Majority Requirements, and Coordination 574 Not Unique but Rare . 579 Xli CONTENTS The Implications for Policy Choices 580 How Failing to Support David Worley Hurt the Democrats in 2000 584 What We Know 585 What We Don't Know: The Major Political Parties and Civil Rights 586 Study Questions and Problems 588 15. Minority Voters and Representation 592 The Dilemma of Representation 592 What It Was Like 594 The South Today 595 The Current Rise in Diversity 599 Defining Minority Representation 600 Vote Denial 602 Vote Dilution 608 Vote Dilution, the Fifteenth Amendment, and the Voting Rights Act 616 Majority-Minority Districts and the Redistricting Debate of the 1990s 618 Majority-Minority Districts and Other Minorities 621 Are Majority-Minority Districts Good for Minorities? 625 The Future of Redistricting 632 Vote Denial Today 634 What We Know 637 Study Questions and Problems 637 16. The Future and Analyzing Elections 641 The 2008 Presidential Contest 641 The Message and What We Know Redux 642 References 645 Index 673
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