Behavioral social choice: probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications
In this volume, while looking at the probabilistic foundations of collective decision-making rules, the authors challenge much of the existing theoretical wisdom about social choice processes, and seek to restore faith in the possibility of democratic decision making.
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2006
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Table of contents only Publisher description Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | In this volume, while looking at the probabilistic foundations of collective decision-making rules, the authors challenge much of the existing theoretical wisdom about social choice processes, and seek to restore faith in the possibility of democratic decision making. |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references (S. 217-231) and indexes |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 240 S. Ill. |
| ISBN: | 0521829682 0521536669 9780521829687 9780521536660 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures and Tables page ix
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction and Summary 1
Introduction 1
Summary 10
I PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF SOCIAL CHOICE BEHAVIOR
1 The Lack of Theoretical and Practical Support for
Majority Cycles 23
1.1 The impartial culture and majority cycles 26
1.1.1 Background 29
1.1.2 For three candidates the impartial culture
generates the most cycles 32
1.1.3 Does the impartial culture generate the most cycles
regardless of the number of candidates? 35
1.2 Net value restriction and net preference majority 37
1.2.1 Majority rule and probabilistic preferences 37
1.2.2 Probabilistic reformulation and generalizations of
Sen s value restriction 41
1.3 Empirical illustrations 44
1.4 Discussion 49
2 A General Concept of Majority Rule 52
2.1 A general definition of majority rule 53
2.1.1 Majority rule based on deterministic or
probabilistic preference relations 56
V
vi Contents
2.1.2 Majority rule based on utility functions or random
utility representations 63
2.2 Generalizations of the impartial culture 73
2.3 General concepts of value restriction and preference
majority 75
2.3.1 A generalization of Theorem 1.2.15 beyond
linear orders 77
2.3.2 Generalizations of net value restriction and net
preference majority 80
2.3.3 Visualizations using the partial order graph on
three alternatives 85
2.4 Empirical illustrations 95
2.5 Discussion 103
II APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILISTIC MODELS TO
EMPIRICAL DATA
3 On the Model Dependence versus Robustness of Social
Choice Results 109
3.1 Model dependence versus robustness 111
3.2 Empirical illustrations 113
3.3 Near net value restriction 117
3.4 Discussion 120
4 Constructing Majority Preferences from Subset Choice Data 124
4.1 Majority rule preferences constructed via two
probabilistic models of subset choice data 127
4.1.1 Evaluating net value restriction and net preference
majority from subset choices via the
size independent model 130
4.1.2 Majority preferences constructed from the topset
voting model 132
4.2 Model dependendence of majority preference
constructed from subset choice data 133
4.3 Empirical illustrations 135
4.3.1 Analyses using the size independent model 137
4.3.2 Analyses using the topset voting model 147
4.3.3 Model dependence of majority outcomes, net value
restriction, and net majority 148
4.4 Discussion 149
III A GENERAL STATISTICAL SAMPLING AND BAYESIAN
INFERENCE FRAMEWORK
5 Majority Rule in a Statistical Sampling and Bayesian
Inference Framework 155
Contents vii
5.1 Majority rule in a general sampling framework 157
5.1.1 Pairwise majority in a sample of binary relations 160
5.1.2 Upper and lower bounds on the probabilities of
majority preference relations 163
5.2 The Condorcet efficiency of majority rule 168
5.3 Majority rule in a Bayesian inference framework 170
5.4 Empirical illustrations 174
5.4.1 Majority misestimation 174
5.4.2 Majority outcomes in random samples from the
1996 ANES 177
5.4.3 Majority outcomes in random samples from the
1969 GNES 181
5.4.4 Majority outcomes in random samples from the
1988 FNES for Communist Party identifiers 181
5.4.5 Summary of results for samples from ANES,
GNES, and FNES surveys 183
5.4.6 Bayesian inference about majority outcomes for
the full 1988 FNES 186
5.5 Discussion 187
6 Conclusions and Directions for Future Behavioral Social
Choice Research 191
6.1 Conclusions 191
6.2 Directions for future behavioral social choice research 194
A Definitions of Cultures of Preference Distributions 199
B Definitions and Notation for Binary Relations 202
C Proofs of Theorems and Observations 204
Bibliography 217
Author Index 233
Subject Index 236
Figures and Tables
FIGURES
1.1 Net value restriction in the 1969 GNES 45
1.2 Net value restriction in the 1972 GNES 47
1.3 Net value restriction in the 1976 GNES 48
2.1 Graphical display of Sen s NB(a) condition 86
2.2 Graphical display of NetNB(a) for linear orders 87
2.3 Graphical display of NetNB(a) for partial orders 88
2.4 Graphical display of Sen s NM{a) condition 89
2.5 Graphical display of NetNM{a) for linear orders 90
2.6 Graphical display of NetNM(a) for partial orders 91
2.7 Graphical display of a b (or a z b) 92
2.8 Graphical display of a c (or a £ c) 93
2.9 Graphical display of b ¦ c (or b £; c) 94
2.10 Counterexample showing that neither net value restriction
nor net majority is needed for transitive majority
preferences 96
2.11 Net value restriction in the 1968 ANES 98
2.12 Net value restriction in the 1980 ANES 99
2.13 Net value restriction in the 1992 ANES 100
2.14 Net value restriction in the 1996 ANES 101
2.15 Sen s value restriction in the 1988 FNES for Communist
respondents 102
3.1 Semiorder probabilities and net probabilities for the 1968
ANES with a utility discrimination threshold of 50 115
4.1 Analysis of TIMS El via the size independence model 140
ix
x List of Figures and Tables
4.2 Analysis of MAA 2 via the size independence model 144
4.3 Analysis of SJDM via the size independence model 145
4.4 Analysis of SSCW via the size independence model 147
5.1 Simulation results for samples of size 50 from the
1996 ANES 178
5.2 Results about sampling from the 1969 GNES 182
TABLES
1.1 Probabilities of majority cycles in samples drawn from the
impartial culture 28
2.1 Overview of results about value restriction and related
conditions 104
4.1 Summary of data for seven real and mock approval voting
elections 136
4.2 Overview and model comparison of majority outcomes for
seven approval voting elections 142
5.1 Sample size in the sampling framework 165
5.2 Errp(N, S) in the inference framework 173
5.3 Comparison of analytical and simulation results on
sampling from the 1996 ANES 180
5.4 Overview of misestimation in ANES, GNES, and FNES 184
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
List of Figures and Tables page ix
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction and Summary 1
Introduction 1
Summary 10
I PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF SOCIAL CHOICE BEHAVIOR
1 The Lack of Theoretical and Practical Support for
Majority Cycles 23
1.1 The impartial culture and majority cycles 26
1.1.1 Background 29
1.1.2 For three candidates the impartial culture
generates the most cycles 32
1.1.3 Does the impartial culture generate the most cycles
regardless of the number of candidates? 35
1.2 Net value restriction and net preference majority 37
1.2.1 Majority rule and probabilistic preferences 37
1.2.2 Probabilistic reformulation and generalizations of
Sen's value restriction 41
1.3 Empirical illustrations 44
1.4 Discussion 49
2 A General Concept of Majority Rule 52
2.1 A general definition of majority rule 53
2.1.1 Majority rule based on deterministic or
probabilistic preference relations 56
V
vi Contents
2.1.2 Majority rule based on utility functions or random
utility representations 63
2.2 Generalizations of the impartial culture 73
2.3 General concepts of value restriction and preference
majority 75
2.3.1 A generalization of Theorem 1.2.15 beyond
linear orders 77
2.3.2 Generalizations of net value restriction and net
preference majority 80
2.3.3 Visualizations using the partial order graph on
three alternatives 85
2.4 Empirical illustrations 95
2.5 Discussion 103
II APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILISTIC MODELS TO
EMPIRICAL DATA
3 On the Model Dependence versus Robustness of Social
Choice Results 109
3.1 Model dependence versus robustness 111
3.2 Empirical illustrations 113
3.3 Near net value restriction 117
3.4 Discussion 120
4 Constructing Majority Preferences from Subset Choice Data 124
4.1 Majority rule preferences constructed via two
probabilistic models of subset choice data 127
4.1.1 Evaluating net value restriction and net preference
majority from subset choices via the
size independent model 130
4.1.2 Majority preferences constructed from the topset
voting model 132
4.2 Model dependendence of majority preference
constructed from subset choice data 133
4.3 Empirical illustrations 135
4.3.1 Analyses using the size independent model 137
4.3.2 Analyses using the topset voting model 147
4.3.3 Model dependence of majority outcomes, net value
restriction, and net majority 148
4.4 Discussion 149
III A GENERAL STATISTICAL SAMPLING AND BAYESIAN
INFERENCE FRAMEWORK
5 Majority Rule in a Statistical Sampling and Bayesian
Inference Framework 155
Contents vii
5.1 Majority rule in a general sampling framework 157
5.1.1 Pairwise majority in a sample of binary relations 160
5.1.2 Upper and lower bounds on the probabilities of
majority preference relations 163
5.2 The Condorcet efficiency of majority rule 168
5.3 Majority rule in a Bayesian inference framework 170
5.4 Empirical illustrations 174
5.4.1 Majority misestimation 174
5.4.2 Majority outcomes in random samples from the
1996 ANES 177
5.4.3 Majority outcomes in random samples from the
1969 GNES 181
5.4.4 Majority outcomes in random samples from the
1988 FNES for Communist Party identifiers 181
5.4.5 Summary of results for samples from ANES,
GNES, and FNES surveys 183
5.4.6 Bayesian inference about majority outcomes for
the full 1988 FNES 186
5.5 Discussion 187
6 Conclusions and Directions for Future Behavioral Social
Choice Research 191
6.1 Conclusions 191
6.2 Directions for future behavioral social choice research 194
A Definitions of Cultures of Preference Distributions 199
B Definitions and Notation for Binary Relations 202
C Proofs of Theorems and Observations 204
Bibliography 217
Author Index 233
Subject Index 236
Figures and Tables
FIGURES
1.1 Net value restriction in the 1969 GNES 45
1.2 Net value restriction in the 1972 GNES 47
1.3 Net value restriction in the 1976 GNES 48
2.1 Graphical display of Sen's NB(a) condition 86
2.2 Graphical display of NetNB(a) for linear orders 87
2.3 Graphical display of NetNB(a) for partial orders 88
2.4 Graphical display of Sen's NM{a) condition 89
2.5 Graphical display of NetNM{a) for linear orders 90
2.6 Graphical display of NetNM(a) for partial orders 91
2.7 Graphical display of a b (or a z b) 92
2.8 Graphical display of a c (or a £ c) 93
2.9 Graphical display of b ¦ c (or b £; c) 94
2.10 Counterexample showing that neither net value restriction
nor net majority is needed for transitive majority
preferences 96
2.11 Net value restriction in the 1968 ANES 98
2.12 Net value restriction in the 1980 ANES 99
2.13 Net value restriction in the 1992 ANES 100
2.14 Net value restriction in the 1996 ANES 101
2.15 Sen's value restriction in the 1988 FNES for Communist
respondents 102
3.1 Semiorder probabilities and net probabilities for the 1968
ANES with a utility discrimination threshold of 50 115
4.1 Analysis of TIMS El via the size independence model 140
ix
x List of Figures and Tables
4.2 Analysis of MAA 2 via the size independence model 144
4.3 Analysis of SJDM via the size independence model 145
4.4 Analysis of SSCW via the size independence model 147
5.1 Simulation results for samples of size 50 from the
1996 ANES 178
5.2 Results about sampling from the 1969 GNES 182
TABLES
1.1 Probabilities of majority cycles in samples drawn from the
impartial culture 28
2.1 Overview of results about value restriction and related
conditions 104
4.1 Summary of data for seven real and mock approval voting
elections 136
4.2 Overview and model comparison of majority outcomes for
seven approval voting elections 142
5.1 Sample size in the sampling framework 165
5.2 Errp(N, S) in the inference framework 173
5.3 Comparison of analytical and simulation results on
sampling from the 1996 ANES 180
5.4 Overview of misestimation in ANES, GNES, and FNES 184 |
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| id | DE-604.BV021798188 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T15:46:57Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:44:52Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0521829682 0521536669 9780521829687 9780521536660 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2005023291 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-015010741 |
| oclc_num | 61362685 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-188 |
| physical | XV, 240 S. Ill. |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publishDateSearch | 2006 |
| publishDateSort | 2006 |
| publisher | Cambridge Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Behavioral social choice probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications Michel Regenwetter ... 1. publ. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2006 XV, 240 S. Ill. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references (S. 217-231) and indexes In this volume, while looking at the probabilistic foundations of collective decision-making rules, the authors challenge much of the existing theoretical wisdom about social choice processes, and seek to restore faith in the possibility of democratic decision making. Choix collectif - Modèles mathématiques Prise de décision - Modèles mathématiques Probabilités - Modèles mathématiques Vote - Modèles mathématiques Mathematisches Modell Social choice Mathematical models Decision making Mathematical models Voting Mathematical models Probabilities Mathematical models Kollektiventscheidung (DE-588)4022393-0 gnd rswk-swf Wahl (DE-588)4064286-0 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Public-Choice-Theorie (DE-588)4233109-2 gnd rswk-swf Kollektiventscheidung (DE-588)4022393-0 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s Wahl (DE-588)4064286-0 s Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 s Public-Choice-Theorie (DE-588)4233109-2 s DE-188 Regenwetter, Michel Sonstige oth http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0518/2005023291.html Table of contents only http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0632/2005023291-d.html Publisher description HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015010741&sequence=000006&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Behavioral social choice probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications Choix collectif - Modèles mathématiques Prise de décision - Modèles mathématiques Probabilités - Modèles mathématiques Vote - Modèles mathématiques Mathematisches Modell Social choice Mathematical models Decision making Mathematical models Voting Mathematical models Probabilities Mathematical models Kollektiventscheidung (DE-588)4022393-0 gnd Wahl (DE-588)4064286-0 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Public-Choice-Theorie (DE-588)4233109-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4022393-0 (DE-588)4064286-0 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4057633-4 (DE-588)4113446-1 (DE-588)4233109-2 |
| title | Behavioral social choice probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications |
| title_auth | Behavioral social choice probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications |
| title_exact_search | Behavioral social choice probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Behavioral social choice probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications |
| title_full | Behavioral social choice probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications Michel Regenwetter ... |
| title_fullStr | Behavioral social choice probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications Michel Regenwetter ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Behavioral social choice probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications Michel Regenwetter ... |
| title_short | Behavioral social choice |
| title_sort | behavioral social choice probabilistic models statistical inference and applications |
| title_sub | probabilistic models, statistical inference, and applications |
| topic | Choix collectif - Modèles mathématiques Prise de décision - Modèles mathématiques Probabilités - Modèles mathématiques Vote - Modèles mathématiques Mathematisches Modell Social choice Mathematical models Decision making Mathematical models Voting Mathematical models Probabilities Mathematical models Kollektiventscheidung (DE-588)4022393-0 gnd Wahl (DE-588)4064286-0 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Public-Choice-Theorie (DE-588)4233109-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Choix collectif - Modèles mathématiques Prise de décision - Modèles mathématiques Probabilités - Modèles mathématiques Vote - Modèles mathématiques Mathematisches Modell Social choice Mathematical models Decision making Mathematical models Voting Mathematical models Probabilities Mathematical models Kollektiventscheidung Wahl Stochastisches Modell Entscheidungsfindung Public-Choice-Theorie |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0518/2005023291.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0632/2005023291-d.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015010741&sequence=000006&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT regenwettermichel behavioralsocialchoiceprobabilisticmodelsstatisticalinferenceandapplications |