Divergent paths in post-communist transformation: capitalism for all or capitalism for the few?
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
Palgrave Macmillan
2006
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Studies in economic transition
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references (p. 295-308) and index |
| Beschreibung: | xvi, 314 p. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 1403996342 9781403996343 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents
List of Tables and Figures x
Preface and Acknowledgements xii
Foreword by Anne O. Krueger xv
Introduction and Overview 1
Part I Background: Transition Debates and
Statistical Facts
1 Key Debates on Transition 15
The search for a transition model 15
Principal debates of the 1990s 21
Main issues looking forward 38
The transitology paradigm in political science literature 42
2 Measuring Progress in Transition 47
How to measure progress 47
The EBRD transition indicator: how good a measure of progress? 48
Patterns of reform progress over time 58
Main determinants of growth in transition 62
Appendix: unrecorded economic activity and measures of GDP 70
3 Economic and Social Costs of Transition: A Hard
Look at Soft Facts 78
Introduction 78
Were negative effects inevitable? 79
Aggregate economic costs: lost output and
unemployment output losses 81
Impact on individuals as measured by
social indicators 91
Summing up the evidence on social costs 115
Appendix: estimates of output loss under different assumptions 118
Part II An Ex Post Transition Paradigm:
Uncharted Waters, Pirate Raids and Safe Havens
4 The SS Transition Navigation Model 123
Introduction 123
The value of comprehensive explanations 125
vii
viii Contents
A parsimonious approach: the navigation model 133
Testable hypotheses 143
What is new in the navigation model 146
Appendix: an illustrative formalization of the navigation model 149
5 The Search for a Navigation Chart: Legitimate Debates,
Vested Interests and Reformist Commitments 151
The release from communist captivity: carpe diem
ox follow the money? 151
Availability of navigation charts 152
A timeline of economic transformation events 158
Commitment to a liberal market economy 167
6 From Rent Seeking to Oligarchy to State Capture 177
Overview 177
Partial reforms and the evolution of rent seeking 178
Other forces affecting vulnerability to rent seeking 185
From rent seeking to state capture 191
Appendix: rent seeking, vested interests and
entrenchment in non transition economies 199
7 Safe Havens for Market Reforms: Membership in the
EU and Other International Organizations 203
Courtship games of the EU and post communist countries 203
EU membership incentives: sometimes a carrot,
sometimes a stick 208
Unrequited desires for membership 212
Other international beacons 216
EU membership prospects and reform delays 220
Appendix: EU membership as a factor in
political and economic reform in the Baltic republics 225
Part III A Summing Up
8 Future Prospects for Captured States 233
A fork in the transition road 233
Is further transition inevitable or is it frozen? 234
Consequences of a frozen transition 242
Can anything be done to free the captured states? 248
9 Diverse Outcomes: Liberal Societies, Captured States and
Undetermined Polities 255
Introduction 255
Variation in transition progress 255
Contents ix
Why such divergent outcomes? 264
Future prospects and policy implications 272
Notes 277
Bibliography 295
Index 309
List of Tables and Figures
Tables
1.1 Quality of institutions in transition economies 1997 8 37
2.1 Recovery: estimated index of GDP, 2003 53
2.2 Inflation performance 54
2.3 Cumulative FDI per captia, 1989 2003 54
2.4 Transition indicator values by year and type 59
2.5 Growth of GDP since 1998 69
2.6 Year that the TPI growth threshold (2.55) was reached
for CISM countries 69
A2.1 Transitional indicator averages 73
3.1 Official and adjusted index of output 81
3.2 Summary estimates of cumulative output loss 85
3.3 Unemployment rates in the transition 88
3.4 Average human development indicator values 93
3.5 Range of Gini estimates in the literature 97
3.6 Probable changes in Gini values 100
3.7 Range of Gini values by country groups 102
3.8 Poverty ratio estimates: various sources 105
3.9 Range of poverty ratios by country group and period 106
3.10 Male life expectancy trends in transition 112
3.11 Gross educational enrolment ratios 114
A3.1 Estimates of cumulative loss of output 120
5.1 Chronology of events: post communist countries 160
5.2 Milestones of transition progress 162
5.3 Type of first government and reform strategy 169
5.4 Liberal commitment at start and reform strategy 170
5.5 Countries with reversals in government 171
6.1 State capture index, 1999 192
7.1 Strength of EU offer and reform delay 221
A7.1 Contractual relations between the EU and the Baltic
republics up to 1995 230
9.1 Key indicators of transformation outcomes 258
9.2 Final transformation outcomes and principal determinants 265
x
List of Tables and Figures xi
Figures
1.1 An illustration of the Washington Consensus 18
2.1 EBRD transition progress indicator (TPI), 2004 50
2.2 Constitutional liberalism and progress in transition 56
A2.1 CE transition progress indicators 74
A2.2 CE average liberalization index per year 74
A2.3 Baltics transition progress indicators 74
A2.4 Baltics average liberalization index per year 75
A2.5 SEE transition progress indicators 75
A2.6 SEE average liberalization index per year 75
A2.7 CISM transition progress indicators 76
A2.8 CISM average liberalization index per year 76
A2.9 CISL transition progress indicators 76
A2.10 CISL average liberalization index per year 77
A3.1 Actual GDP and socialist counterfactuals 119
A3.2 Schema for calculating GDP loss under various
counterfactuals 119
4.1 An encyclopedic approach to explaining diverse
transition results 126
4.2 Transition progress and continuity of communist era judges 130
4.3 Vicious circle of delayed reform and oligarchic development 138
4.4 Virtuous circle of timely reform and development of
competitive market and rule of law 139
4.5 Testable hypotheses of the navigation model 147
5.1 Uncharted waters or too many charts? 154
5.2 Transition countries and type of reform strategy 159
6.1 Rent seeking type A: gradual or aborted big bang
reformers, high vulnerability 183
6.2 Rent seeking, types A and B 184
6.3 Delay facilitates state capture 193
6.4 State capture and delay in stabilization 194
6.5 State capture and delay in reform progress 194
6.6 State capture freezes transition 198
8.1 State capture leads to frozen transition 240
|
| adam_txt |
Contents
List of Tables and Figures x
Preface and Acknowledgements xii
Foreword by Anne O. Krueger xv
Introduction and Overview 1
Part I Background: Transition Debates and
Statistical Facts
1 Key Debates on Transition 15
The search for a transition model 15
Principal debates of the 1990s 21
Main issues looking forward 38
The transitology paradigm in political science literature 42
2 Measuring Progress in Transition 47
How to measure progress 47
The EBRD transition indicator: how good a measure of progress? 48
Patterns of reform progress over time 58
Main determinants of growth in transition 62
Appendix: unrecorded economic activity and measures of GDP 70
3 Economic and Social Costs of Transition: A Hard
Look at Soft Facts 78
Introduction 78
Were negative effects inevitable? 79
Aggregate economic costs: lost output and
unemployment output losses 81
Impact on individuals as measured by
social indicators 91
Summing up the evidence on social costs 115
Appendix: estimates of output loss under different assumptions 118
Part II An Ex Post Transition Paradigm:
Uncharted Waters, Pirate Raids and Safe Havens
4 The SS Transition Navigation Model 123
Introduction 123
The value of comprehensive explanations 125
vii
viii Contents
A parsimonious approach: the navigation model 133
Testable hypotheses 143
What is new in the navigation model 146
Appendix: an illustrative formalization of the navigation model 149
5 The Search for a Navigation Chart: Legitimate Debates,
Vested Interests and Reformist Commitments 151
The release from communist captivity: carpe diem
ox follow the money? 151
Availability of navigation charts 152
A timeline of economic transformation events 158
Commitment to a liberal market economy 167
6 From Rent Seeking to Oligarchy to State Capture 177
Overview 177
Partial reforms and the evolution of rent seeking 178
Other forces affecting vulnerability to rent seeking 185
From rent seeking to state capture 191
Appendix: rent seeking, vested interests and
entrenchment in non transition economies 199
7 Safe Havens for Market Reforms: Membership in the
EU and Other International Organizations 203
Courtship games of the EU and post communist countries 203
EU membership incentives: sometimes a carrot,
sometimes a stick 208
Unrequited desires for membership 212
Other international beacons 216
EU membership prospects and reform delays 220
Appendix: EU membership as a factor in
political and economic reform in the Baltic republics 225
Part III A Summing Up
8 Future Prospects for Captured States 233
A fork in the transition road 233
Is further transition inevitable or is it frozen? 234
Consequences of a frozen transition 242
Can anything be done to free the captured states? 248
9 Diverse Outcomes: Liberal Societies, Captured States and
Undetermined Polities 255
Introduction 255
Variation in transition progress 255
Contents ix
Why such divergent outcomes? 264
Future prospects and policy implications 272
Notes 277
Bibliography 295
Index 309
List of Tables and Figures
Tables
1.1 Quality of institutions in transition economies 1997 8 37
2.1 Recovery: estimated index of GDP, 2003 53
2.2 Inflation performance 54
2.3 Cumulative FDI per captia, 1989 2003 54
2.4 Transition indicator values by year and type 59
2.5 Growth of GDP since 1998 69
2.6 Year that the TPI growth threshold (2.55) was reached
for CISM countries 69
A2.1 Transitional indicator averages 73
3.1 Official and adjusted index of output 81
3.2 Summary estimates of cumulative output loss 85
3.3 Unemployment rates in the transition 88
3.4 Average human development indicator values 93
3.5 Range of Gini estimates in the literature 97
3.6 Probable changes in Gini values 100
3.7 Range of Gini values by country groups 102
3.8 Poverty ratio estimates: various sources 105
3.9 Range of poverty ratios by country group and period 106
3.10 Male life expectancy trends in transition 112
3.11 Gross educational enrolment ratios 114
A3.1 Estimates of cumulative loss of output 120
5.1 Chronology of events: post communist countries 160
5.2 Milestones of transition progress 162
5.3 Type of first government and reform strategy 169
5.4 Liberal commitment at start and reform strategy 170
5.5 Countries with reversals in government 171
6.1 State capture index, 1999 192
7.1 Strength of EU'offer'and reform delay 221
A7.1 Contractual relations between the EU and the Baltic
republics up to 1995 230
9.1 Key indicators of transformation outcomes 258
9.2 Final transformation outcomes and principal determinants 265
x
List of Tables and Figures xi
Figures
1.1 An illustration of the Washington Consensus 18
2.1 EBRD transition progress indicator (TPI), 2004 50
2.2 Constitutional liberalism and progress in transition 56
A2.1 CE transition progress indicators 74
A2.2 CE average liberalization index per year 74
A2.3 Baltics transition progress indicators 74
A2.4 Baltics average liberalization index per year 75
A2.5 SEE transition progress indicators 75
A2.6 SEE average liberalization index per year 75
A2.7 CISM transition progress indicators 76
A2.8 CISM average liberalization index per year 76
A2.9 CISL transition progress indicators 76
A2.10 CISL average liberalization index per year 77
A3.1 Actual GDP and socialist counterfactuals 119
A3.2 Schema for calculating GDP loss under various
counterfactuals 119
4.1 An encyclopedic approach to explaining diverse
transition results 126
4.2 Transition progress and continuity of communist era judges 130
4.3 Vicious circle of delayed reform and oligarchic development 138
4.4 Virtuous circle of timely reform and development of
competitive market and rule of law 139
4.5 Testable hypotheses of the navigation model 147
5.1 Uncharted waters or too many charts? 154
5.2 Transition countries and type of reform strategy 159
6.1 Rent seeking type A: gradual or aborted big bang
reformers, high vulnerability 183
6.2 Rent seeking, types A and B 184
6.3 Delay facilitates state capture 193
6.4 State capture and delay in stabilization 194
6.5 State capture and delay in reform progress 194
6.6 State capture freezes transition 198
8.1 State capture leads to frozen transition 240 |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| geographic | Europe, Eastern Economic conditions 1989- Europe, Central Economic conditions Former Soviet republics Economic conditions Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd Transformationsländer (DE-588)4651141-6 gnd Mittelasien (DE-588)4039661-7 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Europe, Eastern Economic conditions 1989- Europe, Central Economic conditions Former Soviet republics Economic conditions Osteuropa Transformationsländer Mittelasien |
| id | DE-604.BV021709163 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T15:19:49Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:42:12Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1403996342 9781403996343 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2005049930 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014922999 |
| oclc_num | 60644845 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-521 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-521 DE-188 |
| physical | xvi, 314 p. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publishDateSearch | 2006 |
| publishDateSort | 2006 |
| publisher | Palgrave Macmillan |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Studies in economic transition |
| spelling | Havrylyshyn, Oleh 1943-2020 Verfasser (DE-588)170031322 aut Divergent paths in post-communist transformation capitalism for all or capitalism for the few? Oleh Havrylyshyn 1. publ. Basingstoke [u.a.] Palgrave Macmillan 2006 xvi, 314 p. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Studies in economic transition Includes bibliographical references (p. 295-308) and index Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte 1989-2005 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft Post-communism Comparative economics Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Kapitalismus (DE-588)4029577-1 gnd rswk-swf Europe, Eastern Economic conditions 1989- Europe, Central Economic conditions Former Soviet republics Economic conditions Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd rswk-swf Transformationsländer (DE-588)4651141-6 gnd rswk-swf Mittelasien (DE-588)4039661-7 gnd rswk-swf Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 g Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s Kapitalismus (DE-588)4029577-1 s Geschichte 1989-2005 z DE-604 Transformationsländer (DE-588)4651141-6 g Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 s Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 s Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 b Mittelasien (DE-588)4039661-7 g DE-188 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014922999&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Havrylyshyn, Oleh 1943-2020 Divergent paths in post-communist transformation capitalism for all or capitalism for the few? Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd Wirtschaft Post-communism Comparative economics Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Kapitalismus (DE-588)4029577-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)2128486-6 (DE-588)4066493-4 (DE-588)4066512-4 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4029577-1 (DE-588)4075739-0 (DE-588)4651141-6 (DE-588)4039661-7 |
| title | Divergent paths in post-communist transformation capitalism for all or capitalism for the few? |
| title_auth | Divergent paths in post-communist transformation capitalism for all or capitalism for the few? |
| title_exact_search | Divergent paths in post-communist transformation capitalism for all or capitalism for the few? |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Divergent paths in post-communist transformation capitalism for all or capitalism for the few? |
| title_full | Divergent paths in post-communist transformation capitalism for all or capitalism for the few? Oleh Havrylyshyn |
| title_fullStr | Divergent paths in post-communist transformation capitalism for all or capitalism for the few? Oleh Havrylyshyn |
| title_full_unstemmed | Divergent paths in post-communist transformation capitalism for all or capitalism for the few? Oleh Havrylyshyn |
| title_short | Divergent paths in post-communist transformation |
| title_sort | divergent paths in post communist transformation capitalism for all or capitalism for the few |
| title_sub | capitalism for all or capitalism for the few? |
| topic | Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd Wirtschaft Post-communism Comparative economics Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Kapitalismus (DE-588)4029577-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten Wirtschaft Post-communism Comparative economics Wirtschaftspolitik Wirtschaftsreform Wirtschaftsentwicklung Kapitalismus Europe, Eastern Economic conditions 1989- Europe, Central Economic conditions Former Soviet republics Economic conditions Osteuropa Transformationsländer Mittelasien |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014922999&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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