The global oil market: risks and uncertainties
The goal of this study is to provide a risk assessment of the global oil market. Cordesman and Al-Rodhan study six major oil-producing regions of the world: the Middle East, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, North America, and South and Central America. In each case, the authors outl...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C.
The CSIS Press
2006
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Significant issues series
28,1 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Table of contents Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | The goal of this study is to provide a risk assessment of the global oil market. Cordesman and Al-Rodhan study six major oil-producing regions of the world: the Middle East, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, North America, and South and Central America. In each case, the authors outline national oil developments and focus on four major areas of risks and uncertainties: macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical risks, oil production uncertainties, and the nature of resources. |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references |
| Beschreibung: | XI, 155 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 089206479X 9780892064793 |
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| 520 | 3 | |a The goal of this study is to provide a risk assessment of the global oil market. Cordesman and Al-Rodhan study six major oil-producing regions of the world: the Middle East, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, North America, and South and Central America. In each case, the authors outline national oil developments and focus on four major areas of risks and uncertainties: macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical risks, oil production uncertainties, and the nature of resources. | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Petroleum industry and trade |x Economic aspects | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Petroleum industry and trade |x Political aspects | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Petroleum products |x Prices | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Energy policy | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
List of Tables and Figures viii
Acknowledgments x
Authors Notes xi
1 OVERVIEW 1
Key Geopolitical Uncertainties 1
Macroeconomic Fluctuations 3
The Nature of Resource Risks 4
The Lack of Robust Modeling 6
Oil Production Uncertainties 7
Solving Supply Issues Related to Middle Eastern Oil 10
General Patterns of Oil Dependence 11
U.S. Import Dependence 11
The Surge in Chinese Demand for Oil 12
Other Importers 13
2 THE FORCES SHAPING THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET 15
The Short Term Outlook 17
Inadequate Modeling Based on Inadequate Understanding 18
Lagging Investment 21
3 RECENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 24
The Uncertainties Driving Modeling and Forecasting 25
vi THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET: RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES
Factors Shaping Supply and Demand 29
The Factors That Could Sustain High Demand 31
The Forces That Could Shape Limited Supply 34
4 SHIFTS IN GLOBAL OIL DEPENDENCE 42
Growing Asian Driven Demand for Middle Eastern and
North African Exports 44
European Pressure on Demand and Imports 46
The Rest of the World 49
Growing U.S. Import Dependence and Failed Energy
Bills and Policies 50
Limited Importance of the Source of U.S. Imports 52
Estimates of the Potential Growth of U.S. Imports 53
Chinese Import Dependence 55
The Overall Patterns in Energy Imports 58
5 REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND PRODUCTION RISKS 60
The Middle East 65
National Developments 68
Key Strategic Challenges 84
Production Risks and Developments 86
Africa 88
National Developments 90
Key Strategic Challenges 93
Production Risks and Developments 95
Asia and the Pacific 97
National Developments 97
Key Strategic Challenges 101
Production Risks and Developments 102
Europe and Eurasia 104
National Developments 104
Key Strategic Challenges 108
Production Risks and Developments 109
North America 111
National Developments 111
Key Strategic Challenges 115
CONTENTS vii
Production Risks and Developments 116
South and Central America 119
National Developments 120
Key Strategic Challenges 123
Production Risks and Developments 125
6 OIL PRODUCTION AND RECOVERY TECHNOLOGIES 133
Key Technological Developments 134
The Importance of Investing in Research and
Development 136
7 CONCLUSION: DEALING WITH GLOBAL RISKS AND AN
UNCERTAIN FUTURE 138
Why High Prices Can Be So Important 139
Oil Production and Production Capacity Forecasts 141
Solving the Supply Issues Related to Middle Eastern Oil 144
Uncertain Transparency and Uncertain Credibility 146
World Economic Growth and Consumption 146
Demand Driven Models 147
Supply Driven Models 148
Major Areas of Uncertainty in the Energy Modeling
ofthe/£O 150
Still the Best Game in Town 153
About the Authors 154
TABLES AND FIGURES
Tables
4.1 U.S. EIA Estimates of World Consumption by Region,
2002 2025 43
4.2 BP Estimates of Inter area Movements, 2004 45
4.3 U.S. EIA Estimate of Trends in Asian Oil Demand,
2002 2025 47
4.4 U.S. EIA Estimate of Trends in Western Oil Demand,
2002 2025 48
4.5 U.S. EIA Estimate of Trends in Oil Demand in Other
Developing Countries, 2002 2025 49
4.6 U.S. Gross Petroleum Imports by Source,
2000 2025 55
5.1 Increase in Saudi Production Capacity by Field,
2005 2009 78
7.1 World Oil Production and Production Capacity in 2025,
IEO 2004 versus IEO 2005 Projections 142
7.2 OPEC Oil Production Capacity, 2005 2025 145
Figures
3.1 U.S. EIA Estimate of World Demand Based on Economic
Growth, 2001 2025 34
3.2 U.S. EIA Estimate of Total World Supply Production Capacity,
2001 2025 36
4.1 U.S. Oil Imports and Dependence on OPEC and the Gulf,
1973 2005 51
viii
TABLES AND FIGURES ix
4.2 Core Petroleum U.S. Import Elasticity Forecast for 2025 53
5.1 World Proven Oil Reserves Trends, 1984 2004 61
5.2 World Oil Production Trends, 1984 2004 62
5.3 Middle East Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil
Reserves 66
5.4 U.S. EIA Estimates of Middle East Oil Production
Capacity 68
5.5 Africa Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil Reserves 89
5.6 U.S. EIA Estimates of Africa Oil Production Capacity 89
5.7 Asia Pacific Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil
Reserves 98
5.8 U.S. EIA Estimates of Asia Pacific Oil Production
Capacity 98
5.9 Europe Eurasia Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil
Reserves 105
5.10 U.S. EIA Estimates of Europe Eurasia Oil Production
Capacity 106
5.11 North America Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil Reserves 112
5.12 U.S. EIA Estimates of North America Oil Production
Capacity 112
5.13 South and Central America Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil
Reserves 119
5.14 U.S. EIA Estimates of South America Oil Production
Capacity 120
|
| adam_txt |
CONTENTS
List of Tables and Figures viii
Acknowledgments x
Authors' Notes xi
1 OVERVIEW 1
Key Geopolitical Uncertainties 1
Macroeconomic Fluctuations 3
The Nature of Resource Risks 4
The Lack of Robust Modeling 6
Oil Production Uncertainties 7
Solving Supply Issues Related to Middle Eastern Oil 10
General Patterns of Oil Dependence 11
U.S. Import Dependence 11
The Surge in Chinese Demand for Oil 12
Other Importers 13
2 THE FORCES SHAPING THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET 15
The Short Term Outlook 17
Inadequate Modeling Based on Inadequate Understanding 18
Lagging Investment 21
3 RECENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 24
The Uncertainties Driving Modeling and Forecasting 25
vi THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET: RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES
Factors Shaping Supply and Demand 29
The Factors That Could Sustain High Demand 31
The Forces That Could Shape Limited Supply 34
4 SHIFTS IN GLOBAL OIL DEPENDENCE 42
Growing Asian Driven Demand for Middle Eastern and
North African Exports 44
European Pressure on Demand and Imports 46
The Rest of the World 49
Growing U.S. Import Dependence and Failed Energy
Bills and Policies 50
Limited Importance of the Source of U.S. Imports 52
Estimates of the Potential Growth of U.S. Imports 53
Chinese Import Dependence 55
The Overall Patterns in Energy Imports 58
5 REGIONAL STRATEGIC AND PRODUCTION RISKS 60
The Middle East 65
National Developments 68
Key Strategic Challenges 84
Production Risks and Developments 86
Africa 88
National Developments 90
Key Strategic Challenges 93
Production Risks and Developments 95
Asia and the Pacific 97
National Developments 97
Key Strategic Challenges 101
Production Risks and Developments 102
Europe and Eurasia 104
National Developments 104
Key Strategic Challenges 108
Production Risks and Developments 109
North America 111
National Developments 111
Key Strategic Challenges 115
CONTENTS vii
Production Risks and Developments 116
South and Central America 119
National Developments 120
Key Strategic Challenges 123
Production Risks and Developments 125
6 OIL PRODUCTION AND RECOVERY TECHNOLOGIES 133
Key Technological Developments 134
The Importance of Investing in Research and
Development 136
7 CONCLUSION: DEALING WITH GLOBAL RISKS AND AN
UNCERTAIN FUTURE 138
Why High Prices Can Be So Important 139
Oil Production and Production Capacity Forecasts 141
Solving the Supply Issues Related to Middle Eastern Oil 144
Uncertain Transparency and Uncertain Credibility 146
World Economic Growth and Consumption 146
Demand Driven Models 147
Supply Driven Models 148
Major Areas of Uncertainty in the Energy Modeling
ofthe/£O 150
Still the Best Game in Town 153
About the Authors 154
TABLES AND FIGURES
Tables
4.1 U.S. EIA Estimates of World Consumption by Region,
2002 2025 43
4.2 BP Estimates of Inter area Movements, 2004 45
4.3 U.S. EIA Estimate of Trends in Asian Oil Demand,
2002 2025 47
4.4 U.S. EIA Estimate of Trends in Western Oil Demand,
2002 2025 48
4.5 U.S. EIA Estimate of Trends in Oil Demand in Other
Developing Countries, 2002 2025 49
4.6 U.S. Gross Petroleum Imports by Source,
2000 2025 55
5.1 Increase in Saudi Production Capacity by Field,
2005 2009 78
7.1 World Oil Production and Production Capacity in 2025,
IEO 2004 versus IEO 2005 Projections 142
7.2 OPEC Oil Production Capacity, 2005 2025 145
Figures
3.1 U.S. EIA Estimate of World Demand Based on Economic
Growth, 2001 2025 34
3.2 U.S. EIA Estimate of Total World Supply Production Capacity,
2001 2025 36
4.1 U.S. Oil Imports and Dependence on OPEC and the Gulf,
1973 2005 51
viii
TABLES AND FIGURES ix
4.2 Core Petroleum U.S. Import Elasticity Forecast for 2025 53
5.1 World Proven Oil Reserves Trends, 1984 2004 61
5.2 World Oil Production Trends, 1984 2004 62
5.3 Middle East Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil
Reserves 66
5.4 U.S. EIA Estimates of Middle East Oil Production
Capacity 68
5.5 Africa Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil Reserves 89
5.6 U.S. EIA Estimates of Africa Oil Production Capacity 89
5.7 Asia Pacific Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil
Reserves 98
5.8 U.S. EIA Estimates of Asia Pacific Oil Production
Capacity 98
5.9 Europe Eurasia Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil
Reserves 105
5.10 U.S. EIA Estimates of Europe Eurasia Oil Production
Capacity 106
5.11 North America Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil Reserves 112
5.12 U.S. EIA Estimates of North America Oil Production
Capacity 112
5.13 South and Central America Proven, Known, Undiscovered Oil
Reserves 119
5.14 U.S. EIA Estimates of South America Oil Production
Capacity 120 |
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| id | DE-604.BV021674200 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T15:09:37Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:41:21Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 089206479X 9780892064793 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2006003324 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014888519 |
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| physical | XI, 155 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2006 |
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| spelling | Cordesman, Anthony H. 1939-2024 Verfasser (DE-588)132834979 aut The global oil market risks and uncertainties Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. Al-Rodhan Washington, D.C. The CSIS Press 2006 XI, 155 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Significant issues series 28,1 Includes bibliographical references The goal of this study is to provide a risk assessment of the global oil market. Cordesman and Al-Rodhan study six major oil-producing regions of the world: the Middle East, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, North America, and South and Central America. In each case, the authors outline national oil developments and focus on four major areas of risks and uncertainties: macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical risks, oil production uncertainties, and the nature of resources. Politik Petroleum industry and trade Economic aspects Petroleum industry and trade Political aspects Petroleum products Prices Energy policy Erdölweltmarkt (DE-588)4203251-9 gnd rswk-swf Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Erdölweltmarkt (DE-588)4203251-9 s Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s DE-604 Al-Rodhan, Khalid R. Verfasser aut Significant issues series 28,1 (DE-604)BV000009554 28,1 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip067/2006003324.html Table of contents HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014888519&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Cordesman, Anthony H. 1939-2024 Al-Rodhan, Khalid R. The global oil market risks and uncertainties Significant issues series Politik Petroleum industry and trade Economic aspects Petroleum industry and trade Political aspects Petroleum products Prices Energy policy Erdölweltmarkt (DE-588)4203251-9 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4203251-9 (DE-588)4137042-9 |
| title | The global oil market risks and uncertainties |
| title_auth | The global oil market risks and uncertainties |
| title_exact_search | The global oil market risks and uncertainties |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The global oil market risks and uncertainties |
| title_full | The global oil market risks and uncertainties Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. Al-Rodhan |
| title_fullStr | The global oil market risks and uncertainties Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. Al-Rodhan |
| title_full_unstemmed | The global oil market risks and uncertainties Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. Al-Rodhan |
| title_short | The global oil market |
| title_sort | the global oil market risks and uncertainties |
| title_sub | risks and uncertainties |
| topic | Politik Petroleum industry and trade Economic aspects Petroleum industry and trade Political aspects Petroleum products Prices Energy policy Erdölweltmarkt (DE-588)4203251-9 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Politik Petroleum industry and trade Economic aspects Petroleum industry and trade Political aspects Petroleum products Prices Energy policy Erdölweltmarkt Risikoanalyse |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip067/2006003324.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014888519&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV000009554 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cordesmananthonyh theglobaloilmarketrisksanduncertainties AT alrodhankhalidr theglobaloilmarketrisksanduncertainties |