Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije:
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Veröffentlicht: |
Beograd
2003
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. izd. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Posebna izdanja / Srpska Akademija Nauka i Umetnosti, Geografski Institut "Jovan Cvijić"
54 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Beschreibung: | PT: Demographic basis for regionalization of Serbia. - In kyrill. Schr., serb. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache |
| Beschreibung: | 296 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 8680029203 |
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САДРЖАЈ
Предговор
. 5
Депопулација
и
популациона експанзија
-
резултат
демографске транзиције
и основа регионализации
. 11
Размештај
и
густина становништва као основа
регионализације
. 73
Број, размештај
и структура ратом угрожених лица
приспелих у
Србију
после
1990.
и
њихов значај
за
домицилну демодинамику и регионализации у
. 115
Старење
становништва у
функциј
и
регионализациј
e
. 147
Активност
и запосленост становништва у
функцији
регионализације.
169
Ниво
квалификованости становништва у
функцији
регионализације.
189
Пољопривредно
становништво у
функцији
регионализације
. 201
Демоекономске
компоненте
регионализације
и
урбанизације
. 249
Литература
. 271
Summary.
281
Summary
SUMMARY
Pursuit of the basic trends in transition of the natural increase of population
in Serbia, in the last
100
years, enabled determination of the level and duration of
certain transition phases, and their exhibition, through spatial differentiation of
territorial systems of various magnitude, type and rank, understood as historically
changeable categories.
Our aim was to relate earlier trends and regional aspects of transition of the
natural reproduction in Serbia to newer trends
60
years later. With the purpose to
view them in longer historical continuity, through regional differentiation of the
stages of fertility and lethality of population performed in the meantime, we
followed them up to their contemporary spatial polarization.
Contemporary observation of the scope and spatial magnitude of relatively
homogeneous depopulation territories in Central Serbia and
Vojvodina,
and of
maintenance of relatively homogeneous spaces of high fertility of the population in
Kosovo and
Metohija
has thus been made possible.
Natural restitution of the population of Serbia in the second half of the 19th
century was basically dominated by increased reproduction which strengthened the
biological force of population by means of natural increase, except during the wars
between Serbs and Turks
(1876-1878).
Components of natural restitution of the population were then
distinguished by relative stability of the birth rate at a high level (above
40.0%),
and
by substantial annual oscillation of mortality rates (even above
30.0%).
Thus, strong
annual motions of the natural increase of population were affected until the
1980s.
They represented a turning point, a commencement of stabilization and
determination of long-term trends in components of the natural restitution of
population at the global and especially regional level, except in the periods of the
20th century wars.
Already started transition of natural reproduction and entrance of birth
control in Serbia and
Vojvodina
in the second half of the 19th and the beginning of
the 20th century generally corresponded to social and economic transition,
i.e.
modernization of the society of that time. In comparison with European trends,
transition of population went on more rapidly than socio-economic transition.
Acceptance of birth control occurred simultaneously in the regions with strong
281
_
Summary
_
social and economic transformation like Belgrade and regions of
Vojvodina,
and in
prevalently rural regions of East Serbia as well.
Disagreement between the beginning and course of demographic transition
and the socio-economic changes in the regions of East Serbia acted upon the factors
of fertility decline. Factors from the socio-economic, psychological and family
organization spheres, as well as other specific conditions, were standing out because
of tendencies, to mention only some of them, to improve the standard of living by
lower fertility.
The presented trends of transition of the natural restitution of population in
Serbia at the global and regional levels stopped in the second decade of the 20th
century because of the Balkan War and World War II. The amounts of average
annual mortality rates of
45.6%
in Central Serbia,
31.0%
in
Vojvodina,
and
43.1%
in Kosovo and
Metohija,
in the period
1914-1918,
testify to proportions of the
human losses and cataclysms in Serbia during World War II
The regional analysis has shown that the areas with dominant participation
of the Serbian population suffered the greatest losses of distressing consequences in
further demographic development. The proportions of total demographic losses in
West Serbia represented a population cataclysm which has left permanent traces in
the age structure of the more recent periods.
With regard to the level and course of demographic transition the space of
Serbia was considerably polarized at the interval between the wars. Territories with
lower fertility of population were clearly separated:
Vojvodina,
East Serbia,
territories along the Danube and
Morava
with towns acting as regional centers:
Belgrade, Kragujevac,
Niš.
Other parts of Central Serbia were distinguished by the
high level of birth rate and natural increase while the course of demographic
transition of birth and mortality rates was relatively equalized in parts of West,
Southwest and West Serbia, and in Kosovo and
Metohija.
It thus happened that
some regions of Central Serbia had the highest natural increase in the whole of
Serbia in the period between the wars. Prior to World War II ethno-demographic
structure used to have a slighter impact on the polarization of space in Serbia in
transition of the natural restitution. However, research at the microlevel showed
that Serbian population in Kosovo and
Metohija
began to accept birth control and
to decrease fertility, which has not been the case with Albanian population.
Orientations of birth rate and mortality transition between the wars added
to the establishment of relatively homogeneous units by the type of natural increase
in Serbia. Changes in the period
1921-1940
were inclined towards continual
extenuation of territories with a low natural increase of population from
Vojvodina
over Belgrade to East Serbia, and towards decrease of territories with a high natural
increase of population in mountainous parts of Central Serbia and in Kosovo and
Metohija.
Based on these trends five relatively homogeneous and territorially
compact space units can be separated by the type of natural increase.
The first of them is the type of a very high natural increase of population
(rates over
20%)
which in
1940
characterized only the
Ras
region (rate
22.55%).
It
was severely narrowed in relation to the status in
1921
when six regions of Central
Serbia and four regions of Kosovo and
Metohija
belonged to that type. The second
type is represented by the high natural increase of population (rates
10.0-19.9%)
282
Summary
which in the period
1921-1940
spatially moved from East Serbia,
Danubian
region,
Šumadija,
regions along
Velika
and
Južna
Morava
towards West and Southwest
Serbia, and Kosovo and
Metohija.
In
194017
out of
27
regions of Serbia belonged to
that type of natural increase. The third type or the medium level of the natural
increase of population (rates
5.0-9.9)
is marked by spatial extenuation in the period
1921-1940
from the region of Srem
(5.1%)
towards the
Danubian
region
(5.4%),
the
region of Kragujevac
(6.7%)
and the region of
Morava
(6.8%).
The forth type or
low level of the natural increase of population (rates
0.0-4.9 %)
characterized in
1921
the region of Belgrade and
3
regions in
Vojvodina
(South
Banat, Nort Banat
and North
Bačka).
Until
1940,
it extended to
8
regions. The fifth type, characterized
by biological depopulation (negative natural increase), was recorded in the region of
Timok (rate
-2.0%,
Map
3)
in
1940.
A micro-regional unit has been formed in East Serbia since the mid-19308
from which biological depopulation was developing and extending in the second half
of the 20th century to the territories of Central Serbia and
Vojvodina.
Demographic transition in Serbia in the period between the wars was
developing similarly to the transition of European population so that prior to World
War II the medium level of the natural increase of population (rate
8.8%
in
1939)
had been reached. Directions of the birth and mortality rates decline were relatively
synchronized at the global and regional level in the period between the wars. This is
why there have been no demographic explosion and greater changes in natural
increase of the population of Central Serbia,
Vojvodina,
and Kosovo and
Metohija,
which could affect the establishment of the total population potentials of the state.
According to the level, directions of transition and regional differentiation
of natural increase of the population of Serbia after World War II two stages are
singled out.
The first of them, concerning the compensation period after war sufferings,
lasted with a relative equivalence of the time course at the level of macro-regional
units until the
1950s.
The second stage began after the end of the compensation period and was
distinguished by a rapid development of earlier established trends of the natural
increase of population. They led towards increasingly expressed spatial-
demographic and ethno-demograpfic polarization of Serbia. The first model of
natural restitution, below the level of simple reproduction in Central Serbia and
Vojvodina,
i.e. among Serbs, other nations and a part of national minorities (Croats,
Slovenes, Hungarians, Slovaks, Bulgarians etc.), was identical with natural
reproduction of the population of developed countries of the world. The second is
the model of extended natural reproduction and a very slow transition of fertility of
the population in Kosovo and
Metohija,
i.e.
among Albanians, Moslems and
Romanies, corresponding with natural increase of the population of developing
countries. Divergent directions of spatial and ethno-demographic transition of
fertility in Serbia in the last decades of the 20th century were accompanied with
specific features in the transition of mortality of macro-regional units in Serbia,
which resulted in extreme courses for European conditions.
The level and course of transition of the birth and mortality rates at the
contemporary stage of demographic development of Serbia resulted in much
283
_
Summary
_
expressed regional and ethnic polarization of the natural increase of population.
They also affected essential changes in contributions of some regional units, nations
rjxd national minorities to the total population increase and structural characteristics
of the population potentials of Serbia, relevant to contemporary and future
demographic, economic, social, political, cultural and civilization development of
the Balkans and Southeast Europe.
The population of Serbia has entered the final stage of demographic
transition of low fertility and low mortality with aggravation of differences in the
models of natural increase at the levels of macro-regional units and certain
nationalities. Thus, the population of Central Serbia and
Vojvodina
has entered the
final stage of transition since
1961
with the net reproduction rate of
0.92
in Central
Serbia and
0.98
in
Vojvodina.
It means that the level of birth rate in Central Serbia
and
Vojvodina
has not been providing simple natural reproduction for more than
three decades.
On the other hand, the population of Kosovo and
Metohija
has only since
1985
entered the phase of very low mortality and gradual decline of fertility. It
testifies to the constant maintenance of the model of extended natural reproduction
in Kosovo and
Metohija
with net reproduction rates of
2.34
in
1961,
then
2.9
in
1971
and
1.58
in
1991.
Albanian women at fertile age have been giving birth until the
1970s
on the average to two, and today to more than one female babies, who would
.live to see the reproductive period owing to the fact that decline of mortality in
Kosovo and
Metohija
after World War II was faster and more efficient in relation to
the average European values. This is why a very strong population explosion took
place in this region of Serbia.
All mentioned items added to essential changes in the territorial structure
of the natural increase in Serbia. In
1950,
Serbia participated in the total natural
increase with
61.7%,
Vojvodina
with
17.8%,
and Kosovo and
Metohija
with
20.5%.
In
1980
the share of Serbia was
36.0%,
of
Vojvodina
only
7.0%
and of Kosovo and
Metohija
even
57.0%.
The negative natural increase appeared in
Vojvodina
in
1989
(- 2 128
persons) and in Central Serbia in
1992
as well
(-741
persons). The total
natural increase of population since
1992
has been coming from Kosovo and
M-tohija,
i.e.
Albanian population in Kosovo and
Metohija
has taken over the
provision of almost complete natural increase in Serbia. In Kosovo and
Metohija
46
041
persons were born and
8 392
persons died in
1996.
The surplus of born over
deceased persons was
37 649,
which was a higher absolute amount of natural
increase than the total natural increase in Yugoslavia.
At the contemporary stage of demographic development, two groups of
nations and national minorities were differentiated: one group with distinct
depopulation and weak demographic vitality, and the other with population
expansion and strong demographic vitality. In Serbia already in
1971
a negative
natural increase was recorded: among Rumanians (rate
-3.81%),
Hungarians
(-
1.1%),
and Ruthenians or Little Russians
(-0.5%).
Other nations and national
minorities had a positive but differentiated natural increase. The values of rates
were with Serbs
5.8%,
Montenegrins
8.5%,
Moslems
18.3%,
Rumanians
18.9%
and
Albanians
33.2%.
The number of nations and national minorities with the surplus of
deceased over born persons increased until
1990
and biological depopulation spread
over the Serbian population as well. Negative rates of the natural increase
284
Summary
amounted in
1991
to
-10.8%
with Bulgarians,
-8.2%
with Hungarians,
■
j.2% with
Rumanians,
-6.2%
with Slovaks,
-3.6%
with Croats,
-3.0%
with
Ruthenians
and
-
0.2%
with Serbs. Positive rates of the natural increase of
23.9%
had Albanians, of
17.2%
Moslems, of
22.4%
Rumanians, of
21.6%
Turks etc.
Changes in the structure of natural restitution of the population by
nationalities in the last decades in Serbia and Yugoslavia are of great importance to
long-term development of the Balkans in its entirety. In the achievement of the total
natural increase of the population on the territory of the Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia in
1971
Serbs took part with
43%
and Albanians with
40%
і
while
Albanians took over domination in
1981
with participation of
49%.
In
1999
the
share of Albanians was
80%
and of Moslems
11%,
which amounted to
91%
of the
natural increase of the population on the territory of the Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia. The fact that the population of Moslem religion provides almost the
total natural increase of the population is extremely important to ethnic processes
and political circumstances in the Balkans and Southeast Europe.
In territorial distribution of natality, only two types are singled out in Serbia
today: the type of low and the type of high concentration. Because of that Serbia is
polarized into two homogeneous spatial entities essentially different regarding size
and characteristics of demographic potentials. Almost the entire territory of
Vojvodina
and Central Serbia belongs to the type of low concentration, and Kosovo
and
Metohija
to the type of high concentration.
Several types of concentration are observed in the territorial distribution of
mortality. They differentiate more spacious areas of low concetration (part of South
Serbia, Kosovo and
Metohija,
part of West Serbia) and areas of high concentration
(Southeast, East and a part of Central Serbia,
Banat,
North and West
Bačka).
The
territories of municipalitites with towns which are regional centers and fall in the
type of average concentration of mortality are beyond the above mentioned areas.
In territorial distribution of natural increase of the population on the
territory of Serbia, three relatively homogeneous spatial entities are separated.
Almost the whole territory of
Vojvodina
and Central Serbia with a prevalently
negative natural increase and advanced process of depopulation are in the first.
Almost the whole territory of Kosovo and
Metohija
with the type of high
concentration of the natural increase and the model of extended natural
reproduction is in the second entity. The third spatial unit is in the middle between
the previous two entities. Municipalities of South Serbia inhabited by Albanian
population and municipalities of West Serbia inhabited predominantly by Moslem
population fall in the third group.
In the third part of this monograph an analysis of three elements significant
for demographic regionalization of the space of Serbia (in the exact sense, as
potential parameters, and in theoretical sense
-
as the basis of the selected
principles of regionalization) is given. The three elements are: distribution
(arrangement) and redistribution (rearrangement) of population, demographic
densities measured by the general density coefficient and the (formal) urbanization
level, which represents the resultant, as well as the main cause or the driving force of
complex spatial-demographic transformations in that geospacial entity. These
characteristics are reviewed at the same formal spatial level (by municipalities) and
in the same time segments. For the number of population the time levels of
285
Summary
observation (cross-sections of the state) were the census years
1971,1981
and
1991,
and the basic indicators (number, surface) for the spatial unites of observation
(municipalities) were given according to the state on March
31,1991.
Stratification
of modalities to five (arrangement and density), or six stratums (general
urbanization level) for the three observed qualities was performed. It was done in
the following manner: the stratums with values within the average limits were
defined as median, then two other stratums with values above and under average
were defined. This way, a certain level of real compatibility of all analyzed qualities
was assured and verified.
Another important component for eventual demographic regionalization of
Serbia, analyzed in this research, is the component (differing from the preceding one
-
arrangement of population in formal spatial units of observation of the lowest
rank) with an even more stressed spatial-demographic character. It is at the same
time formal-statistical by nature, because it is related to the current (official)
territorial division. The question is about population density (general population
coefficient), as a statistically relevant measure, representing the resultant of
relations (correlations) between the population
(i.e.
all basic effects of demographic
courses and processes) and space in a wider sense, i.e. all the relevant elements and
factors that belong not only to social-geographic complex, but to physical-
geographic one as well. The modalities of this spatial-demographic (relative) quality
are grouped, like in the previous case, into five groups
-
stratums: areas
(municipalities) of rare density (up to
50
inhabitants per km2), low density
(50-100
inhabitants per km2), medium density
(101-150
inhabitants per km2), high density
(151-200
inhabitants per km2), and very high density (more than
200
inhabitants per
km2). Basic characteristics of actual population density as an element for possible
demogeographic regionalization of Serbia, were observed indirectly: through
distribution of municipalities (status in
1971,1981
and
1991)
by defined stratums
.
The urbanization process in the space of Serbia represents the basic driving
force, and parallely the main resultant of spatial-demographic, but also of the total
social-geographic development of that geoentity. Depending on the influence of
numerous elements and factors of complex character the development went on,
in'-raregionally viewed, in different directions and with different intensity. But on
the largest part of the territory of the Republic of Serbia, it resulted with stressed
spatial-demographic polarization; i.e. it was (in quantitative, and especially in
qualitative sense) significantly regionally differentiated. At the same time, basic
indicator of (formally) reached urbanization level is one of the main parameters of
demographic regionalization of Serbia as a geo-spatial whole, in which this social-
geographic segment represents the dominant component. Practically, by the reached
(formal) level of urbanization, this space is divided into six stratums (zones): zone of
very weak urbanization, formed by municipalities with the urban population ratio in
total population less than
20%
(this includes municipalities without a single urban
settlement in their structure); zone of initial urbanization (municipalities with
20,1%-30,0%
of urban population); zone of medium urbanization (municipalities
with
30,1%-40,0%
of urban population); zone of stronger urbanization
(municipalities with
40,1%-50,0%
of urban population); zone of high urbanization
(municipalities with
50,1%-70,0%
of urban population); and zone of intensive
urbanization (potential urban regions where, within the limits of managing
286
Summary
administrative units of the lowest degree, the urban population ratb in total
population is larger than
70,0%).
Basic results of the analysis of three spatial-geographic qualities
(distribution, density and urbanization degree) show that the territory of Serbia, as a
whole, is sharply differentiated into zones of very low and zones of very high
demographic concentration (i.e. zones of depopulation and zones of
superconcentrated population) with diametrically contrasting geospatial
characteristics.
The Serbian nation lives on territories extending from North Macedonia till
Kupa
and
Žumberačka
Gora.
On the greatest part of that territory it has the
absolute ethnic majority, while on the other it lives mingled with other entities
(mostly Croats and Moslems). Migration process is a permanent and important
quality of the Serbian nation, as it is of other nations, too. After the Turkish
invasion of the Balkan Peninsula, migrations of Serbs, and even Croats, were
directed towards North, NorthEast and West,
i.e.
towards
Panonia
and the western
part of the Balkan Peninsula. In the 19th and 20th centuries, however, along with the
establishment and strengthening of the new Serbian state on the territory of today's
Republic of Serbia and the war miseries that struck the Serbs in the western part of
the Serbian ethnic territory (SET), the migration streams of Serbs went mainly
towards the East,
i.e.
towards the new Serbian state. The present demographic
situation throughout the entire SET is extremely hard and negative. From
1991,
the
Serbs in Serbia have negative population growth, which means that from then on
almost the entire natural growth in the Republic is due to Albanians, Moslems and
Roms.
From the territorial aspect, the entire natural growth of Serbia is being
accomplished in Kosovo and
Metohija.
This means that there is a dual negative
bipolarity and disharmony in this country: ethnic and territorial. The Serbs were
banished from the greatest part of the Western SET during the recently finished
"Yugoslav war". The result is that there are in Serbia approximately
620.000
of war
imperiled persons. Approximately
95%
of them originate from Croatia and Bosnia-
Herzegovina, and
92%
of them are Serbs (around
565.000).
When, to this number,
we add the amount of
450.000
Serb refugees in the Republic of
Srpska,
it comes out
that at this moment there are about a million of Serbs in exile. In Serbia,
66.1%
of
arrived refugees are concentrated on
9,5%
of its territory,
i.e.
in the Belgrade
region, down Podrinje (Loznica
-
Šabac), Srem,
south and southwest part of
Bačka.
This means that the refugee component was not well enough utilized for solving the
depopulation problems in Serbia.
The aging of population is one of the most disturbing demographic
phenomena and processes in Serbia. In the chapter "Aging of population as a
function of demographic regionalization" the reached level, intensity and spatial
polarization of aging of the population in Serbia, as well as aging conditioned by and
related with the regional development level are investigated. The chapter deals with
the structural qualities of population. It first points to aging of population in the
function of demographic regionalization of Serbia. Regionalization is presented
through aging conditioned by and connected with regional development, with
possibilities and perspectives of socio-economic development from the aspect of
demographic potentials, and the function to examine the basic elements for
regionalization of Serbia according to age-sex structure of the population.
287
_
Summary
_
Population aging is a very important demographic process and, if adequate
indicators are searched for, demographic aging can be used, because of its synthetic
character, as one of the basic criteria of demographic regionalization. The age-sex
structure of some population reveals not only its past, but its future development as
well. Population movement, fertility, mortality and migrations affect the age-sex
structure, which on the other hand has its back effect to population movement.
The research comprises the period from
1948
to
1991.
The level of
observation represents three macroregions: Central Serbia,
Vojvodina,
and Kosovo
and
Metohija.
Changes in the population age structure by municipalities throughout
the last
20
years were next researched. The intensity of the process of population
aging was analyzed according to criteria of G. Penev, who singled out seven
stadiums of demographic age.
The main characteristic of Serbia after World War II is the tendency for
decrease of the young and increase of the old population. The ratio of youth in the
total population of Serbia has decreased from
41.6%
in
1948
to
30,2%
in
1991.
The
ratio of the elderly of
60
and over in the total population increased from
8.8%
to
15.9%.
While at the same time in
1991
the aging index passed the so-called
"demographic old age threshold", i.e. from
0.21
it rose to
0,53.
The censuses from
1948
and
1953
show the specific age structure of each of
the three macroregions:
Vojvodina
the poorest, with the ratio of the elderly larger
.than the average for the Republic (over
10%)
and the ratio of the young lower than
the average for the Republic (less than
40%);
Central Serbia, with the structure very
much alike the average of the Republic; and Kosovo with extremely young age
structure and the ratio of the young above
50%.
The whole Province, with these and
all other demographic indicators, sets out as an
antipode
to the rest of the territory
of Serbia and from the aspect of age structure, emerges as the "pole of demographic
youth".
Spatial aspects of described processes for the period
1971-1991
(Map
1)
show that the process of aging is intensifying on the territories of Central Serbia and
Vojvodina,
while the progressive type of age structure is present only in Kosovo and
Metohija.
At the beginning of the observed period
69
municipalities in Serbia
(21
in
Vc.jvodina and
48
in Central Serbia) were on the "demographic old age threshold"
which was territorially the most widely spread type of age structure. Fifty-nine
municipalities were in the stadium of "demographic old age",
23
in
Vojvodina
where
the process first began and is the most intensive. Already in
1971
some
municipalities in East Serbia reached the phase of "deep demographic old age" and
in one particular municipality of South-East Serbia
(Knjaževac),
the presence of
"the deepest demographic old age" was detected. Only in Belgrade, in the
municipalities of
Raška
area, in
4
municipalities of West Serbia (Podrinje area) and
3
municipalities in South Serbia (on the border with Kosovo) the population was in
the stadium of "demographic maturity". The municipalities of Kosovo and
Metohija,
effected by an extremely high birth rate and even rejuvenating of the
population, belonged to the lowest stadiums of demographic age
-
"demographic
juvenility" and "demographic maturity".
By
1991,
the aging process in Serbia was significantly accelerated and
already
93
municipalities (out of which
38
in
Vojvodina)
were in the stadium of
"demographic old age". The territory with qualities of "demographic juvenility" and
288
Summary
"demographic maturity" is being reduced and concentrated only in K'.sovo and
Metohija.
At the same time, in Central Serbia and
Vojvodina
the majority of
municipalities age by one stadium up, consequently the stadium of "demographic
old age" prevails. The number of municipalities in "deep demographic old age" has
risen to
44,
and
10
municipalities have entered the stadium of "the deepest
demographic old age" (according to some characteristics, the population of
5
more
municipalities is on the verge of the deepest demographic old age). These are mostly
municipalities of East Serbia, with extremely low birth rate, where throughout a
long period of time the "one child system" was embraced, together with continuing
emigration of inhabitants.
In the whole of East and Southeast Serbia only the main centers of the
region:
Niš,
Vranje, Leskovac,
Bor, Majdanpek
have a more favorable age structure
of the population (at the threshold or in the stadiums of demographic age). Deep
demographic age is present in the majority of municipalities of the
Podunavlje
region, Sumadija and Pomoravlje. In West Serbia that zone is extended to the
eastern municipalities of the
Užički
and Podrinjsko-Kolubarski region. In that area
only in the municipalities of
Priboj, Prijepolje, Sjenica
and
Raška
-
Novi Pazar
and
Tutin
the structure of population has all the characteristics of demographic maturity
or threshold of demographic old age. That is explained by higher birth rates
resulting from greater participation of Albanian and Moslem population in the total
population of the community.
Utmost unevenness and disproportion in regional development of Serbia
caused numerous problems: in demographic streams, very specific, contrary
tendencies depending on whether it is a case of more developed urban regions,
underdeveloped regions with extreme population concentration (Kosovo and
Metohija,
for example) or underdeveloped areas.
Comparative analysis of indicators of the level of economic development
and spread of main courses and axes of development in Serbia, and demographic
courses observed through the reached stadium of demographic age leads to
important conclusions.
1.
Regions with the development level under the Republic average in sense
of demographic courses can be divided into two completely polarized groups:
-
Territories with a regressive type of age structure, mostly in East and
Southeast Serbia, with the aging process in its last stadium (most of the
municipalities are in the stadium of deep or the deepest demographic old age with
age index over
0.83).
Since these are peripheral territories of the republic, partly on
the border too, out of main traffic routs and axes of economic development,
intensive emigration of the young, reproducing and working capable population is
present.
-
Territories with a progressive type of age structure, in Kosovo and
Metohija
and in a part of
Raška
region where, in this phase of demographic
transition process the impact of ethno-cultural factors upon the population
reproductive model is prevailing over purely economic factors. These are
economically least developed areas, where the national income per capita is, on the
average, four times smaller than the Republic level. They are in the stadium of
289
Summary
demographic juvenility or demographic maturity, with more than
40%
of juvenile
population in total population.
Both age structure types of population in these underdeveloped territories
are extremely unfavorable, because they represent severe limitations in all domains
of socio-economic development: economy, health, education, social welfare etc.
2.
Relatively positive courses of population development (as shown in the
Map) from the aspect of human potentials are today being attached only to areas
with great mechanic inflow of population: city agglomeration of Belgrade and
primary development centers,
Novi Sad
and
Pristina,
secondary development
centers
Niš
and Kragujevac, main development axes (West
Morava,
South
Morava,
Timok, Podrinje and Srem), as well as growth centers (Valjevo,
Priboj, Zrenjanin
etc) set apart. However, the age index of over
0.5
shows that these regions too have
entered the stadium of demographic old ages.
The majority of present-day demographic processes in Serbia can be treated
as negative, because they bring imbalance in the possibility to restore and revitalize
basic vital population contingents, as well as the possibility to have a more
proportional and more even development in the whole of Republic. The drama of
the aging process of population in Serbia is not so much in the intensity of the
process, but in its regionalization, because of the fact that the territories with such
characteristics are getting wider and are covering the largest part of the Republic of
Serbia.
The changes that are going on in the process of socio-economic
development can be reduced to the process of distribution of the working
population between different industries, occupations, urban and rural environment
etc. This causes the polarization of territory according to different demographic,
economic, social and other characteristics.
Economic structure of the population by activity is one of indicators of the
development degree reached on certain territory owing to the fact that economic
development directly changes economic structure of the population, while the
structure of labor force is directly reflected upon economic trends. Complexity of
the research into population activity emerges from determinateness of the volume
of labor force by numerous demographic (total population, work-capable
population, and population structure) and economic
-
social factors (branch
structure of economy, pace of economic development, duration of compulsory
education, labor legislation, religion, tradition, customs
et.)
Characteristics of the population of Serbia by economic structure are
viewed because of chosen indicator analysis: general activity characteristics, degree
of women activity, structure of active population towards structure of activities and
degree of population employment. With a view to various levels of demographic
development of municipalities in Serbia are one of the important elements for
demographic regionalization.
In
1991
the general activity rate in the area of Serbia was
44.2%.
The
women activity rate was
35.3%,
the rate of self-supporting persons was
11.6%,
while
dependents represented
44.2%
of the population. The value of the economic
dependence coefficient was
126.
In respect to these average values, significant
differences by macrounits emerged. In Central Serbia, higher general activity rate
290
Summary
(1.12
index points in relation to the Republic average) as well as participation of
self-supporting persons resulted in smaller participation of dependents. Thus the
economic dependence coefficient was on the lower,
103
level, while the activity rate
of women population was
42.2%.
Participation of active population in the total population in
Vojvodina
is on
the republic level. However, the process of demographic aging of the population
exerted influence upon the relatively high participation of self-supporting persons
on one hand, and the decrease of dependants participation on the other.
Opposite demographic development in the area of Kosovo and
Metohija
caused significant differences in all population structures concerning other two
macroregions. Significant participation of dependants in total population, very low
population activity rate
(0.45
index points with regard to the republic average) and
low participation of self-supporting persons are a result of young age structure of
the population; therefore, the economic dependence coefficient was twice higher
than the republic average.
Different demographic development of municipalities within the
macroregions caused great territory differentiation. Territories with higher and
lower activity rate can be separated. The higher activity rates were caused either by
predominant participation of active agricultural population in the total active
population, or by divided occupation structure. Municipalities of the other type had
a low activity rate as a result either of the above-average participation of active
agricultural population, of young age population structure and at the same time of
low women activity rate, or of territories with a higher deagrarization rate, but a
distinctive depopulation process and population aging.
Active population or labor force represents the demographic framework
from where the contingent of employed is formed. The influence of the capacity of
population is in the first place the question of relationship between the population
and the labor force (offer) on one, and the available resources and their use on the
other side (demand). The accomplished employment rate in the area of Serbia in
1995
was
225
employed per
1000
inhabitants. Between macroregions and among
them there were great differences.
The area of Central Serbia is characterized by the above-average
employment rate with
263
workers per
1000
inhabitants. According to the
accomplished employment level concerning the general activity rate, several types
of municipalities can be separated. The first type is represented by municipalities
where the higher employment level is in accordance with the higher activity rate of
the population because of general development. These are the territories with the
most favorable settlement and development conditions, favorable transportation
-
geographic position, where significant population concentration is present and a
diversified occupation structure is formed. A higher employment level was
accomplished in depopulated municipalities, but with the above-average activity
rates.
Municipalities with a lower employment level, but with a higher general
activity rate were exactly the ones where the higher activity rate was the result of
significant participation of agriculturally active population; a lower employment
291
Summary
level with a low activity rate was a characteristic of underdeveloped areas with a
young age structure of the population.
Vojvodina in
general is characterized with a higher employment rate
(279
employed per
1000
inhabitants). Thanks to a higher degree of economic
development, because of relatively homogeneous group of geopotentials for
development and settlement, the diversified occupation structure reflected
approximately similar characteristics of employment level. Somewhat, out of the
general perspective exit municipalities that form a zone of lower employment in
central and Southeast part of
Vojvodina
with higher participation of agriculturally
active population.
The area of Kosovo and
Metohija
(with the average employment rate of
67
workers per
1000
inhabitants) together with all other attributes, was characterized
by spatial homogeneity of indicator values. Except for several municipalities, the
rest of the territory was characterized by a low activity rate of the population and
low employment, very low participation of women in the total employment as a
result of the young age structure and unadapted occupation structure unable to
assimilate the great inflow of population capable of work.
Employment structure,
i.e.
active population structure according to
occupation is connected with other economic structures, such as qualification,
education structure etc. The changes in professional structure of the population are
,at the same time qualitative (changes in the content of work of specific occupations)
and quantitative by nature (more detailed arrangement of the working population
within specific occupations), The development of science and technology, growth of
standard of living and new needs of the population have caused the appearance of
new occupations. Creation of new structures of the active population by occupation
was accomplished with the growth of education level of employed and working
population in total,
The result of
50
years of compulsory education in Serbia is that the literacy
of population has reached the level of approximately
95%.
Inhabitants with finished
elementary school participate with about
66.0%,
with finished secondary school with
about
40.0%
and with finished higher school with up to
9.0%.
Judging by the trend of changes made so far, we can expect that within ten
years from now, the literacy in Serbia will be complete; in the same period,
participation of other stipulated population contingents will increase by some
10
percent.
By calculation of the population work qualifications according to
municipalities in
1981
mutual relations between municipalities were determined.
That gave the basis for the conclusion that larger part of North Serbia with Belgrade
represents a much more developed macro
-
regional unit in perspective of work
force potentials. Beyond that territory, the same can be said only for the regions of
Uzice-
Valjevo and Kraljevo-Kragujevac. All other parts of Serbia (except
Niš,
Bor
and
Požarevac)
including parts of
Banat
are on the lower level of work
qualifications of the population. This represents an important variable for
determination of demographic regions in the process of general regionalization of
Serbia.
292
Summary
Overall development of agricultural population is a process goirg on in a
very complex, interdependent and mutual conditionality of different factors of
natural and social environment, under the influence of ecological, cultural,
civilization, economic, demographic, politic and other specific conditions of the
geographic system (its logic and pattern). The influence of particular determinants is
very variable, in time as well as in space. Therefore, in the chapter that deals with
agricultural population the basic qualities of the population were discussed, which in
the first place affect the arrangement and structure of the agricultural population,
agricultural production, and even geographic regionalization.
Agriculture used to be the only area of engagement for the rural
population. However, it is certain that along with the technic
-
technology progress,
the need for labour force in agriculture significantly decreased, which in the last
decades of the 20th century resulted in working population drain from agriculture
and the village.
In Serbia, in the period
1953 -1991
agricultural population decreased from
4.7
million
(66.7%)
to
1.7
million
(17.6%).
In that period agricultural population
decreased both in absolute and in relative sense. From the aspect of regions, the
total number of agricultural population in that period in Central Serbia was reduced
for
2
million (from
67.2%
to
18.0%),
in
Vojvodina
for over
800
thousand (from
62.9%
to
13.7%),
and in Kosovo and
Metohija
for about
200
thousand (from
72.4%
to
20.5%).
At the same time, within all macroregions, the process of (absolute and
relative) reduction of active agricultural population went on. On the territories of
Central Serbia, the participation of active population in agricultural population was
reduced for about
3
times (from
74.8%
to
27.0%),
in
Vojvodina
for
4
times (from
68.7%
to
17.1%)
and in Kosovo and
Metohija
for about
4
times (from
76.6%
to
24.9%)
too.
Among other things, the following elements for establishment of the basis
of demographic regionalization have been analyzed in the paper: changes in the
concentration of agricultural population and the productivity level of active farmers.
In addition, eight different forms of population density were observed. This enables
very precise monitoring of changes in the regional distribution of population. Data
on changes in the structure of agricultural population point to the pace of economic
development of the country as well as to socio-economic relations. As a rule, the
transfer of population from agriculture went on by selective mode
-
mainly younger
inhabitants were going away, mostly men, which significantly affected the overall
sex-age population structure. The direct result of deagrarization was the rapid aging
of agricultural population. Namely, throughout the last decades of this century we
can follow the outgoing decrease of juvenile population (up to
19
years of age),
along with the increase of participation of the elderly (over
60
years of age). Thus,
the participation of young persons decreased from
41.6%
to
30.5%
and of the
elderly from
8.8%
to
16.0%.
The projections are that the trend will go on, therefore
it is expected that the decrease of agricultural population in Central Serbia until
2011
will be to
9.4%.
At least
50%
of them will be the persons of
60
years of age
and up, while there will be only
11.5%
of persons younger than
20
years (less than
62 000).
Data on the age structure of agricultural population point out that the
process of aging of farmers in Serbia is well underway. Old households do not take
advantage of new technologies and mechanization, which has negative affects on the
293
Summary
_
^_^
results, and structure of agricultural production. The sex structure, apart from the
age structure, is an important factor of economic activity of the population in a
certain area. The process of extreme industrialization and deagrarization after
World War II has led to the increase in the number of mixed households, which
inevitably led to increased engagement of women in agriculture That is because
men, as a rule, are being employed out of agriculture and women stay on the land.
From
1961
to
1991,
four percentage points (from
42.0%
to
46.4%)
raised the
participation of active women in agriculture. Starting from the eighties, on the
territory of Central Serbia women labor force in agriculture represented more than
half
(51.2%)
of persons actively engaged in agriculture. During that period,
decrease of women activity was recorded only in
Vojvodina,
which can be explained
by a stronger orientation of production towards tilling, with less space for women
labor. The average low activity of women on Kosovo and
Metohija
proves the
worldwide rule that the lowest rates of women activity is being found on the
territories inhabited with the Moslem population.
Low education level, as another possible element of demographic
regionalization, represented after World War II the general characteristic of the
population of Serbia, especially of farmers. Throughout the last decades of the 20th
century the education structure of this contingent of population improved, but
remained very low, far below the European average. In
1991
the education level of
an active agricultural inhabitant of the Republic reached the elementary school
level, while in
Vojvodina
the situation was a bit better, and in Kosovo and
Metohija
even worse. Regional differences from the aspect of education level of the
population were rather big, and mostly in agreement with the economic
development level. Thus, the population of more developed municipalities, larger
cities and suburban settlements was on a slightly higher education level. In the
period of
1953-1991
on the territory of Serbia the number of active agricultural
population with no education decreased conspicuously, from
1.119.746
in
1953
to
209.254
in
1991.
Their participation in the total agriculturally active population
dropped from
45.6%
in
1953
to
23.12%
in
1991.
The category of active agricultural
population with elementary school showed a decrease in the absolute amount from
1.3Г2.222
in
1953
to
635.881
in
1991,
but there was a relative increase from
54.3%
in
1953
to
70.2%
in
1991.
This figure point to a new socio-economic process,
i.e.
that
the total numbers of persons that work in agriculture droped, but on the other hand
their education structure improved. It is important that this process of improvement
of education level was also characteristic in the segment of farmers with secondary
and higher education. Thus, in
1991
there were
21.132
active farmers in Serbia with
a higher education. Although there was an obvious improvement in the education
level of the active agricultural population, there was still a great number (even
25.26%
or every fourth) of them with no education and with every seventh illiterate.
This conclusion needs an explanation
-
the largest number of illiterate persons was
in the category of old person.
It is necessary to emphasize that a decrease in the number of agricultural
and active agricultural population in Serbia was not caused by the rise of
productivity and structural changes in agricultural production. The production is still
characterized by small farms, with largely autarchic or low merchandise agricultural
orientation. The decrease of agricultural population was more a reflection of rural
294
Summary
exodus as a result of poorly developed agriculture that in most cases did
r jt
provide
an adequate standard of living, and in numerous cases not even the basic survival.
On the basis of all this, we can reach a conclusion that the overall agricultural
population in Serbia after World War II, as well as its segment that represents the
working population in agriculture decreased extremely fast and with evident
territorial differentiation of deagrarization process. Due to limited potentials of
mountain areas and their insufficient integration into social and economic streams,
the development rate of non-agrarian occupations fell behind the restructure rate of
agricultural population. Therefore, when leaving agriculture as an occupation, the
population in large amount was leaving the territories as well. It can be concluded
that the demographic picture of agricultural population was highly unfavorable.
In the general judgement on movability of the agricultural population,
several courses can be separated. First, the general movement towards Belgrade
-
the center of political, cultural, educational and administrative life of the Republic;
second, towards regional centers; third from the village toward the municipality
center. Agricultural population mostly participated in these movements. This trend
significantly affected agriculture in general, and especially processes in the field of
cattle breeding. The situation analysis clearly points out that closing of agricultural
households diminished the number of cattle, which significantly affected cattle
production in general.
Accelerated development of Yugoslavia, and of Serbia as well, has fully
encompassed all spheres of population life and started a profound socio-economic
transformation. It has been progressing with some specificities which later became
more evident in the total and regional development of Serbia. On the other side, the
mentioned transformation, stirred by economic development, served as foundation
of all extensive social changes. The development has in essence been advancing
more in width and less in depth. Social and demographic movements were not
adapted to the economic and technological speed of development and were exposed
to pressures of unpredictable and unmanageable character. The situation in Serbia
has become inverted so that economic and thereby technologic prosperity was
restrained by social and demographic transformation, which was extremely
intensive.
Demographic and social changes under conditions prevailing in Serbia have
been proceeding much more rapidly than economic development as their basis.
Thus, a specific situation has been created which particularly manifested itself in the
space and its regional picture. Settlements and agglomerations respectively were set
up like indicators of that situation. Differences between more developed centers
situated in smaller places and large underdeveloped areas with characteristics of
suburbs and enclaves of backwardness were deepened in consequence. That type of
a developed center did not show a steady and balanced tendency of development,
but was rather exposed to pressures of intensive deagrarianization and emmigration,
creating within itself,
i.e.
in city agglomerations new phenomena and problems
concerning development, particularly in periurban belts. However, a separate
network of towns of various sizes and functional relations among themselves on one,
and between themselves and the neighboring or remote areas on the other side, has
been created. Such a situation clearly points out not only the need, but urgency as
well, to undertake reserch and determination of the regional picture of Serbia, and
295
_
Summary
_
similarly the procedure of regionalization with the aim to bring into harmony the
processes of economic development, which failed to keep up with the times, and
already accomplished demographic processes, social transformations and changes.
Though roughly estimated the fact that one half of the population in Serbia
lives in the fifth portion of its space should be particularly respected because it
points out that in regional frameworks complex problems occur. The agglomeration
of Belgrade is dominating the whole territory in question, in other words the
metropolitan area of Belgrade, according to estimation, covers only
3%
of that
territory and is inhabited by one third of the population. Boisterous development of
Belgrade and diversity of problems it faces are illustrations of the consequences of
demographic
anticipative
transition. The so-called separate macro-regional centers
of Serbia,
Novi
Sad,
Niš,
Kragujevac and
Pristina
should be added to that region. A
more detailed analysis including the
Zapadna
Morava
and partly
Južna
Morava
axes
of development would give a better insight into the complete regional picture of
Serbia and a better idea how its regionalization should be approached.
Finally, it seems right to point to several other moments. The question of
the role and importance of the abandoned regionalization of Serbia in recent
decades is still open. Analysis of activities of these regional inter-municipal
associations has never been made. It could serve as a basis of indispensable research
and control if new aspects of knowledge and experiences, domestic and foreign,
would be applied. The second moment, associated with the demo-economic
complex, applies to the period directly behind and is not yet solved. It concerns the
great number of displaced persons and refugees from various parts of former
Yugoslavia who cannot return to their homes and who should be integrated into the
economy and society of Serbia. Their presence is greatly adding to an already deep
gap between the economic courses and socio-economic changes. They are bringing
along new difficilties to that complex, and new uncertainty to limited possibilities
and expectations.
Results of the comprehensive research represent not only an exact but on a
smaller scale a theoretic basis for the establishment of the groundwork of
demographic regionalization of Serbia. That basis would rely on a majority of
spaial-demographic components
:
distribution (arrangement) of population, density
of population and degree of urbanization as resultants of redistribution
(rearrangement) of population, natural movement of population, age-sex straucture,
activities, agriocultural population as a separate element etc. It is important to
emphasize that they are elements necessary to the establishment of the basis which
in combination with demogeographic decompositions of the space of the Republic
of Serbia, and other indicatiors, would result in the general demogeographic
regionalization of that space.
296 |
| adam_txt |
САДРЖАЈ
Предговор
. 5
Депопулација
и
популациона експанзија
-
резултат
демографске транзиције
и основа регионализации
. 11
Размештај
и
густина становништва као основа
регионализације
. 73
Број, размештај
и структура ратом угрожених лица
приспелих у
Србију
после
1990.
и
њихов значај
за
домицилну демодинамику и регионализации у
. 115
Старење
становништва у
функциј
и
регионализациј
e
. 147
Активност
и запосленост становништва у
функцији
регионализације.
169
Ниво
квалификованости становништва у
функцији
регионализације.
189
Пољопривредно
становништво у
функцији
регионализације
. 201
Демоекономске
компоненте
регионализације
и
урбанизације
. 249
Литература
. 271
Summary.
281
Summary
SUMMARY
Pursuit of the basic trends in transition of the natural increase of population
in Serbia, in the last
100
years, enabled determination of the level and duration of
certain transition phases, and their exhibition, through spatial differentiation of
territorial systems of various magnitude, type and rank, understood as historically
changeable categories.
Our aim was to relate earlier trends and regional aspects of transition of the
natural reproduction in Serbia to newer trends
60
years later. With the purpose to
view them in longer historical continuity, through regional differentiation of the
stages of fertility and lethality of population performed in the meantime, we
followed them up to their contemporary spatial polarization.
Contemporary observation of the scope and spatial magnitude of relatively
homogeneous depopulation territories in Central Serbia and
Vojvodina,
and of
maintenance of relatively homogeneous spaces of high fertility of the population in
Kosovo and
Metohija
has thus been made possible.
Natural restitution of the population of Serbia in the second half of the 19th
century was basically dominated by increased reproduction which strengthened the
biological force of population by means of natural increase, except during the wars
between Serbs and Turks
(1876-1878).
Components of natural restitution of the population were then
distinguished by relative stability of the birth rate at a high level (above
40.0%),
and
by substantial annual oscillation of mortality rates (even above
30.0%).
Thus, strong
annual motions of the natural increase of population were affected until the
1980s.
They represented a turning point, a commencement of stabilization and
determination of long-term trends in components of the natural restitution of
population at the global and especially regional level, except in the periods of the
20th century wars.
Already started transition of natural reproduction and entrance of birth
control in Serbia and
Vojvodina
in the second half of the 19th and the beginning of
the 20th century generally corresponded to social and economic transition,
i.e.
modernization of the society of that time. In comparison with European trends,
transition of population went on more rapidly than socio-economic transition.
Acceptance of birth control occurred simultaneously in the regions with strong
281
_
Summary
_
social and economic transformation like Belgrade and regions of
Vojvodina,
and in
prevalently rural regions of East Serbia as well.
Disagreement between the beginning and course of demographic transition
and the socio-economic changes in the regions of East Serbia acted upon the factors
of fertility decline. Factors from the socio-economic, psychological and family
organization spheres, as well as other specific conditions, were standing out because
of tendencies, to mention only some of them, to improve the standard of living by
lower fertility.
The presented trends of transition of the natural restitution of population in
Serbia at the global and regional levels stopped in the second decade of the 20th
century because of the Balkan War and World War II. The amounts of average
annual mortality rates of
45.6%
in Central Serbia,
31.0%
in
Vojvodina,
and
43.1%
in Kosovo and
Metohija,
in the period
1914-1918,
testify to proportions of the
human losses and cataclysms in Serbia during World War II
The regional analysis has shown that the areas with dominant participation
of the Serbian population suffered the greatest losses of distressing consequences in
further demographic development. The proportions of total demographic losses in
West Serbia represented a population cataclysm which has left permanent traces in
the age structure of the more recent periods.
With regard to the level and course of demographic transition the space of
Serbia was considerably polarized at the interval between the wars. Territories with
lower fertility of population were clearly separated:
Vojvodina,
East Serbia,
territories along the Danube and
Morava
with towns acting as regional centers:
Belgrade, Kragujevac,
Niš.
Other parts of Central Serbia were distinguished by the
high level of birth rate and natural increase while the course of demographic
transition of birth and mortality rates was relatively equalized in parts of West,
Southwest and West Serbia, and in Kosovo and
Metohija.
It thus happened that
some regions of Central Serbia had the highest natural increase in the whole of
Serbia in the period between the wars. Prior to World War II ethno-demographic
structure used to have a slighter impact on the polarization of space in Serbia in
transition of the natural restitution. However, research at the microlevel showed
that Serbian population in Kosovo and
Metohija
began to accept birth control and
to decrease fertility, which has not been the case with Albanian population.
Orientations of birth rate and mortality transition between the wars added
to the establishment of relatively homogeneous units by the type of natural increase
in Serbia. Changes in the period
1921-1940
were inclined towards continual
extenuation of territories with a low natural increase of population from
Vojvodina
over Belgrade to East Serbia, and towards decrease of territories with a high natural
increase of population in mountainous parts of Central Serbia and in Kosovo and
Metohija.
Based on these trends five relatively homogeneous and territorially
compact space units can be separated by the type of natural increase.
The first of them is the type of a very high natural increase of population
(rates over
20%)
which in
1940
characterized only the
Ras
region (rate
22.55%).
It
was severely narrowed in relation to the status in
1921
when six regions of Central
Serbia and four regions of Kosovo and
Metohija
belonged to that type. The second
type is represented by the high natural increase of population (rates
10.0-19.9%)
282
Summary
which in the period
1921-1940
spatially moved from East Serbia,
Danubian
region,
Šumadija,
regions along
Velika
and
Južna
Morava
towards West and Southwest
Serbia, and Kosovo and
Metohija.
In
194017
out of
27
regions of Serbia belonged to
that type of natural increase. The third type or the medium level of the natural
increase of population (rates
5.0-9.9)
is marked by spatial extenuation in the period
1921-1940
from the region of Srem
(5.1%)
towards the
Danubian
region
(5.4%),
the
region of Kragujevac
(6.7%)
and the region of
Morava
(6.8%).
The forth type or
low level of the natural increase of population (rates
0.0-4.9 %)
characterized in
1921
the region of Belgrade and
3
regions in
Vojvodina
(South
Banat, Nort Banat
and North
Bačka).
Until
1940,
it extended to
8
regions. The fifth type, characterized
by biological depopulation (negative natural increase), was recorded in the region of
Timok (rate
-2.0%,
Map
3)
in
1940.
A micro-regional unit has been formed in East Serbia since the mid-19308
from which biological depopulation was developing and extending in the second half
of the 20th century to the territories of Central Serbia and
Vojvodina.
Demographic transition in Serbia in the period between the wars was
developing similarly to the transition of European population so that prior to World
War II the medium level of the natural increase of population (rate
8.8%
in
1939)
had been reached. Directions of the birth and mortality rates decline were relatively
synchronized at the global and regional level in the period between the wars. This is
why there have been no demographic explosion and greater changes in natural
increase of the population of Central Serbia,
Vojvodina,
and Kosovo and
Metohija,
which could affect the establishment of the total population potentials of the state.
According to the level, directions of transition and regional differentiation
of natural increase of the population of Serbia after World War II two stages are
singled out.
The first of them, concerning the compensation period after war sufferings,
lasted with a relative equivalence of the time course at the level of macro-regional
units until the
1950s.
The second stage began after the end of the compensation period and was
distinguished by a rapid development of earlier established trends of the natural
increase of population. They led towards increasingly expressed spatial-
demographic and ethno-demograpfic polarization of Serbia. The first model of
natural restitution, below the level of simple reproduction in Central Serbia and
Vojvodina,
i.e. among Serbs, other nations and a part of national minorities (Croats,
Slovenes, Hungarians, Slovaks, Bulgarians etc.), was identical with natural
reproduction of the population of developed countries of the world. The second is
the model of extended natural reproduction and a very slow transition of fertility of
the population in Kosovo and
Metohija,
i.e.
among Albanians, Moslems and
Romanies, corresponding with natural increase of the population of developing
countries. Divergent directions of spatial and ethno-demographic transition of
fertility in Serbia in the last decades of the 20th century were accompanied with
specific features in the transition of mortality of macro-regional units in Serbia,
which resulted in extreme courses for European conditions.
The level and course of transition of the birth and mortality rates at the
contemporary stage of demographic development of Serbia resulted in much
283
_
Summary
_
expressed regional and ethnic polarization of the natural increase of population.
They also affected essential changes in contributions of some regional units, nations
rjxd national minorities to the total population increase and structural characteristics
of the population potentials of Serbia, relevant to contemporary and future
demographic, economic, social, political, cultural and civilization development of
the Balkans and Southeast Europe.
The population of Serbia has entered the final stage of demographic
transition of low fertility and low mortality with aggravation of differences in the
models of natural increase at the levels of macro-regional units and certain
nationalities. Thus, the population of Central Serbia and
Vojvodina
has entered the
final stage of transition since
1961
with the net reproduction rate of
0.92
in Central
Serbia and
0.98
in
Vojvodina.
It means that the level of birth rate in Central Serbia
and
Vojvodina
has not been providing simple natural reproduction for more than
three decades.
On the other hand, the population of Kosovo and
Metohija
has only since
1985
entered the phase of very low mortality and gradual decline of fertility. It
testifies to the constant maintenance of the model of extended natural reproduction
in Kosovo and
Metohija
with net reproduction rates of
2.34
in
1961,
then
2.9
in
1971
and
1.58
in
1991.
Albanian women at fertile age have been giving birth until the
1970s
on the average to two, and today to more than one female babies, who would
.live to see the reproductive period owing to the fact that decline of mortality in
Kosovo and
Metohija
after World War II was faster and more efficient in relation to
the average European values. This is why a very strong population explosion took
place in this region of Serbia.
All mentioned items added to essential changes in the territorial structure
of the natural increase in Serbia. In
1950,
Serbia participated in the total natural
increase with
61.7%,
Vojvodina
with
17.8%,
and Kosovo and
Metohija
with
20.5%.
In
1980
the share of Serbia was
36.0%,
of
Vojvodina
only
7.0%
and of Kosovo and
Metohija
even
57.0%.
The negative natural increase appeared in
Vojvodina
in
1989
(- 2 128
persons) and in Central Serbia in
1992
as well
(-741
persons). The total
natural increase of population since
1992
has been coming from Kosovo and
M-tohija,
i.e.
Albanian population in Kosovo and
Metohija
has taken over the
provision of almost complete natural increase in Serbia. In Kosovo and
Metohija
46
041
persons were born and
8 392
persons died in
1996.
The surplus of born over
deceased persons was
37 649,
which was a higher absolute amount of natural
increase than the total natural increase in Yugoslavia.
At the contemporary stage of demographic development, two groups of
nations and national minorities were differentiated: one group with distinct
depopulation and weak demographic vitality, and the other with population
expansion and strong demographic vitality. In Serbia already in
1971
a negative
natural increase was recorded: among Rumanians (rate
-3.81%),
Hungarians
(-
1.1%),
and Ruthenians or Little Russians
(-0.5%).
Other nations and national
minorities had a positive but differentiated natural increase. The values of rates
were with Serbs
5.8%,
Montenegrins
8.5%,
Moslems
18.3%,
Rumanians
18.9%
and
Albanians
33.2%.
The number of nations and national minorities with the surplus of
deceased over born persons increased until
1990
and biological depopulation spread
over the Serbian population as well. Negative rates of the natural increase
284
Summary
amounted in
1991
to
-10.8%
with Bulgarians,
-8.2%
with Hungarians,
■
j.2% with
Rumanians,
-6.2%
with Slovaks,
-3.6%
with Croats,
-3.0%
with
Ruthenians
and
-
0.2%
with Serbs. Positive rates of the natural increase of
23.9%
had Albanians, of
17.2%
Moslems, of
22.4%
Rumanians, of
21.6%
Turks etc.
Changes in the structure of natural restitution of the population by
nationalities in the last decades in Serbia and Yugoslavia are of great importance to
long-term development of the Balkans in its entirety. In the achievement of the total
natural increase of the population on the territory of the Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia in
1971
Serbs took part with
43%
and Albanians with
40%
і
while
Albanians took over domination in
1981
with participation of
49%.
In
1999
the
share of Albanians was
80%
and of Moslems
11%,
which amounted to
91%
of the
natural increase of the population on the territory of the Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia. The fact that the population of Moslem religion provides almost the
total natural increase of the population is extremely important to ethnic processes
and political circumstances in the Balkans and Southeast Europe.
In territorial distribution of natality, only two types are singled out in Serbia
today: the type of low and the type of high concentration. Because of that Serbia is
polarized into two homogeneous spatial entities essentially different regarding size
and characteristics of demographic potentials. Almost the entire territory of
Vojvodina
and Central Serbia belongs to the type of low concentration, and Kosovo
and
Metohija
to the type of high concentration.
Several types of concentration are observed in the territorial distribution of
mortality. They differentiate more spacious areas of low concetration (part of South
Serbia, Kosovo and
Metohija,
part of West Serbia) and areas of high concentration
(Southeast, East and a part of Central Serbia,
Banat,
North and West
Bačka).
The
territories of municipalitites with towns which are regional centers and fall in the
type of average concentration of mortality are beyond the above mentioned areas.
In territorial distribution of natural increase of the population on the
territory of Serbia, three relatively homogeneous spatial entities are separated.
Almost the whole territory of
Vojvodina
and Central Serbia with a prevalently
negative natural increase and advanced process of depopulation are in the first.
Almost the whole territory of Kosovo and
Metohija
with the type of high
concentration of the natural increase and the model of extended natural
reproduction is in the second entity. The third spatial unit is in the middle between
the previous two entities. Municipalities of South Serbia inhabited by Albanian
population and municipalities of West Serbia inhabited predominantly by Moslem
population fall in the third group.
In the third part of this monograph an analysis of three elements significant
for demographic regionalization of the space of Serbia (in the exact sense, as
potential parameters, and in theoretical sense
-
as the basis of the selected
principles of regionalization) is given. The three elements are: distribution
(arrangement) and redistribution (rearrangement) of population, demographic
densities measured by the general density coefficient and the (formal) urbanization
level, which represents the resultant, as well as the main cause or the driving force of
complex spatial-demographic transformations in that geospacial entity. These
characteristics are reviewed at the same formal spatial level (by municipalities) and
in the same time segments. For the number of population the time levels of
285
Summary
observation (cross-sections of the state) were the census years
1971,1981
and
1991,
and the basic indicators (number, surface) for the spatial unites of observation
(municipalities) were given according to the state on March
31,1991.
Stratification
of modalities to five (arrangement and density), or six stratums (general
urbanization level) for the three observed qualities was performed. It was done in
the following manner: the stratums with values within the average limits were
defined as median, then two other stratums with values above and under average
were defined. This way, a certain level of real compatibility of all analyzed qualities
was assured and verified.
Another important component for eventual demographic regionalization of
Serbia, analyzed in this research, is the component (differing from the preceding one
-
arrangement of population in formal spatial units of observation of the lowest
rank) with an even more stressed spatial-demographic character. It is at the same
time formal-statistical by nature, because it is related to the current (official)
territorial division. The question is about population density (general population
coefficient), as a statistically relevant measure, representing the resultant of
relations (correlations) between the population
(i.e.
all basic effects of demographic
courses and processes) and space in a wider sense, i.e. all the relevant elements and
factors that belong not only to social-geographic complex, but to physical-
geographic one as well. The modalities of this spatial-demographic (relative) quality
are grouped, like in the previous case, into five groups
-
stratums: areas
(municipalities) of rare density (up to
50
inhabitants per km2), low density
(50-100
inhabitants per km2), medium density
(101-150
inhabitants per km2), high density
(151-200
inhabitants per km2), and very high density (more than
200
inhabitants per
km2). Basic characteristics of actual population density as an element for possible
demogeographic regionalization of Serbia, were observed indirectly: through
distribution of municipalities (status in
1971,1981
and
1991)
by defined stratums
.
The urbanization process in the space of Serbia represents the basic driving
force, and parallely the main resultant of spatial-demographic, but also of the total
social-geographic development of that geoentity. Depending on the influence of
numerous elements and factors of complex character the development went on,
in'-raregionally viewed, in different directions and with different intensity. But on
the largest part of the territory of the Republic of Serbia, it resulted with stressed
spatial-demographic polarization; i.e. it was (in quantitative, and especially in
qualitative sense) significantly regionally differentiated. At the same time, basic
indicator of (formally) reached urbanization level is one of the main parameters of
demographic regionalization of Serbia as a geo-spatial whole, in which this social-
geographic segment represents the dominant component. Practically, by the reached
(formal) level of urbanization, this space is divided into six stratums (zones): zone of
very weak urbanization, formed by municipalities with the urban population ratio in
total population less than
20%
(this includes municipalities without a single urban
settlement in their structure); zone of initial urbanization (municipalities with
20,1%-30,0%
of urban population); zone of medium urbanization (municipalities
with
30,1%-40,0%
of urban population); zone of stronger urbanization
(municipalities with
40,1%-50,0%
of urban population); zone of high urbanization
(municipalities with
50,1%-70,0%
of urban population); and zone of intensive
urbanization (potential urban regions where, within the limits of managing
286
Summary
administrative units of the lowest degree, the urban population ratb in total
population is larger than
70,0%).
Basic results of the analysis of three spatial-geographic qualities
(distribution, density and urbanization degree) show that the territory of Serbia, as a
whole, is sharply differentiated into zones of very low and zones of very high
demographic concentration (i.e. zones of depopulation and zones of
superconcentrated population) with diametrically contrasting geospatial
characteristics.
The Serbian nation lives on territories extending from North Macedonia till
Kupa
and
Žumberačka
Gora.
On the greatest part of that territory it has the
absolute ethnic majority, while on the other it lives mingled with other entities
(mostly Croats and Moslems). Migration process is a permanent and important
quality of the Serbian nation, as it is of other nations, too. After the Turkish
invasion of the Balkan Peninsula, migrations of Serbs, and even Croats, were
directed towards North, NorthEast and West,
i.e.
towards
Panonia
and the western
part of the Balkan Peninsula. In the 19th and 20th centuries, however, along with the
establishment and strengthening of the new Serbian state on the territory of today's
Republic of Serbia and the war miseries that struck the Serbs in the western part of
the Serbian ethnic territory (SET), the migration streams of Serbs went mainly
towards the East,
i.e.
towards the new Serbian state. The present demographic
situation throughout the entire SET is extremely hard and negative. From
1991,
the
Serbs in Serbia have negative population growth, which means that from then on
almost the entire natural growth in the Republic is due to Albanians, Moslems and
Roms.
From the territorial aspect, the entire natural growth of Serbia is being
accomplished in Kosovo and
Metohija.
This means that there is a dual negative
bipolarity and disharmony in this country: ethnic and territorial. The Serbs were
banished from the greatest part of the Western SET during the recently finished
"Yugoslav war". The result is that there are in Serbia approximately
620.000
of war
imperiled persons. Approximately
95%
of them originate from Croatia and Bosnia-
Herzegovina, and
92%
of them are Serbs (around
565.000).
When, to this number,
we add the amount of
450.000
Serb refugees in the Republic of
Srpska,
it comes out
that at this moment there are about a million of Serbs in exile. In Serbia,
66.1%
of
arrived refugees are concentrated on
9,5%
of its territory,
i.e.
in the Belgrade
region, down Podrinje (Loznica
-
Šabac), Srem,
south and southwest part of
Bačka.
This means that the refugee component was not well enough utilized for solving the
depopulation problems in Serbia.
The aging of population is one of the most disturbing demographic
phenomena and processes in Serbia. In the chapter "Aging of population as a
function of demographic regionalization" the reached level, intensity and spatial
polarization of aging of the population in Serbia, as well as aging conditioned by and
related with the regional development level are investigated. The chapter deals with
the structural qualities of population. It first points to aging of population in the
function of demographic regionalization of Serbia. Regionalization is presented
through aging conditioned by and connected with regional development, with
possibilities and perspectives of socio-economic development from the aspect of
demographic potentials, and the function to examine the basic elements for
regionalization of Serbia according to age-sex structure of the population.
287
_
Summary
_
Population aging is a very important demographic process and, if adequate
indicators are searched for, demographic aging can be used, because of its synthetic
character, as one of the basic criteria of demographic regionalization. The age-sex
structure of some population reveals not only its past, but its future development as
well. Population movement, fertility, mortality and migrations affect the age-sex
structure, which on the other hand has its back effect to population movement.
The research comprises the period from
1948
to
1991.
The level of
observation represents three macroregions: Central Serbia,
Vojvodina,
and Kosovo
and
Metohija.
Changes in the population age structure by municipalities throughout
the last
20
years were next researched. The intensity of the process of population
aging was analyzed according to criteria of G. Penev, who singled out seven
stadiums of demographic age.
The main characteristic of Serbia after World War II is the tendency for
decrease of the young and increase of the old population. The ratio of youth in the
total population of Serbia has decreased from
41.6%
in
1948
to
30,2%
in
1991.
The
ratio of the elderly of
60
and over in the total population increased from
8.8%
to
15.9%.
While at the same time in
1991
the aging index passed the so-called
"demographic old age threshold", i.e. from
0.21
it rose to
0,53.
The censuses from
1948
and
1953
show the specific age structure of each of
the three macroregions:
Vojvodina
the poorest, with the ratio of the elderly larger
.than the average for the Republic (over
10%)
and the ratio of the young lower than
the average for the Republic (less than
40%);
Central Serbia, with the structure very
much alike the average of the Republic; and Kosovo with extremely young age
structure and the ratio of the young above
50%.
The whole Province, with these and
all other demographic indicators, sets out as an
antipode
to the rest of the territory
of Serbia and from the aspect of age structure, emerges as the "pole of demographic
youth".
Spatial aspects of described processes for the period
1971-1991
(Map
1)
show that the process of aging is intensifying on the territories of Central Serbia and
Vojvodina,
while the progressive type of age structure is present only in Kosovo and
Metohija.
At the beginning of the observed period
69
municipalities in Serbia
(21
in
Vc.jvodina and
48
in Central Serbia) were on the "demographic old age threshold"
which was territorially the most widely spread type of age structure. Fifty-nine
municipalities were in the stadium of "demographic old age",
23
in
Vojvodina
where
the process first began and is the most intensive. Already in
1971
some
municipalities in East Serbia reached the phase of "deep demographic old age" and
in one particular municipality of South-East Serbia
(Knjaževac),
the presence of
"the deepest demographic old age" was detected. Only in Belgrade, in the
municipalities of
Raška
area, in
4
municipalities of West Serbia (Podrinje area) and
3
municipalities in South Serbia (on the border with Kosovo) the population was in
the stadium of "demographic maturity". The municipalities of Kosovo and
Metohija,
effected by an extremely high birth rate and even rejuvenating of the
population, belonged to the lowest stadiums of demographic age
-
"demographic
juvenility" and "demographic maturity".
By
1991,
the aging process in Serbia was significantly accelerated and
already
93
municipalities (out of which
38
in
Vojvodina)
were in the stadium of
"demographic old age". The territory with qualities of "demographic juvenility" and
288
Summary
"demographic maturity" is being reduced and concentrated only in K'.sovo and
Metohija.
At the same time, in Central Serbia and
Vojvodina
the majority of
municipalities age by one stadium up, consequently the stadium of "demographic
old age" prevails. The number of municipalities in "deep demographic old age" has
risen to
44,
and
10
municipalities have entered the stadium of "the deepest
demographic old age" (according to some characteristics, the population of
5
more
municipalities is on the verge of the deepest demographic old age). These are mostly
municipalities of East Serbia, with extremely low birth rate, where throughout a
long period of time the "one child system" was embraced, together with continuing
emigration of inhabitants.
In the whole of East and Southeast Serbia only the main centers of the
region:
Niš,
Vranje, Leskovac,
Bor, Majdanpek
have a more favorable age structure
of the population (at the threshold or in the stadiums of demographic age). Deep
demographic age is present in the majority of municipalities of the
Podunavlje
region, Sumadija and Pomoravlje. In West Serbia that zone is extended to the
eastern municipalities of the
Užički
and Podrinjsko-Kolubarski region. In that area
only in the municipalities of
Priboj, Prijepolje, Sjenica
and
Raška
-
Novi Pazar
and
Tutin
the structure of population has all the characteristics of demographic maturity
or threshold of demographic old age. That is explained by higher birth rates
resulting from greater participation of Albanian and Moslem population in the total
population of the community.
Utmost unevenness and disproportion in regional development of Serbia
caused numerous problems: in demographic streams, very specific, contrary
tendencies depending on whether it is a case of more developed urban regions,
underdeveloped regions with extreme population concentration (Kosovo and
Metohija,
for example) or underdeveloped areas.
Comparative analysis of indicators of the level of economic development
and spread of main courses and axes of development in Serbia, and demographic
courses observed through the reached stadium of demographic age leads to
important conclusions.
1.
Regions with the development level under the Republic average in sense
of demographic courses can be divided into two completely polarized groups:
-
Territories with a regressive type of age structure, mostly in East and
Southeast Serbia, with the aging process in its last stadium (most of the
municipalities are in the stadium of deep or the deepest demographic old age with
age index over
0.83).
Since these are peripheral territories of the republic, partly on
the border too, out of main traffic routs and axes of economic development,
intensive emigration of the young, reproducing and working capable population is
present.
-
Territories with a progressive type of age structure, in Kosovo and
Metohija
and in a part of
Raška
region where, in this phase of demographic
transition process the impact of ethno-cultural factors upon the population
reproductive model is prevailing over purely economic factors. These are
economically least developed areas, where the national income per capita is, on the
average, four times smaller than the Republic level. They are in the stadium of
289
Summary
demographic juvenility or demographic maturity, with more than
40%
of juvenile
population in total population.
Both age structure types of population in these underdeveloped territories
are extremely unfavorable, because they represent severe limitations in all domains
of socio-economic development: economy, health, education, social welfare etc.
2.
Relatively positive courses of population development (as shown in the
Map) from the aspect of human potentials are today being attached only to areas
with great mechanic inflow of population: city agglomeration of Belgrade and
primary development centers,
Novi Sad
and
Pristina,
secondary development
centers
Niš
and Kragujevac, main development axes (West
Morava,
South
Morava,
Timok, Podrinje and Srem), as well as growth centers (Valjevo,
Priboj, Zrenjanin
etc) set apart. However, the age index of over
0.5
shows that these regions too have
entered the stadium of demographic old ages.
The majority of present-day demographic processes in Serbia can be treated
as negative, because they bring imbalance in the possibility to restore and revitalize
basic vital population contingents, as well as the possibility to have a more
proportional and more even development in the whole of Republic. The drama of
the aging process of population in Serbia is not so much in the intensity of the
process, but in its regionalization, because of the fact that the territories with such
characteristics are getting wider and are covering the largest part of the Republic of
Serbia.
The changes that are going on in the process of socio-economic
development can be reduced to the process of distribution of the working
population between different industries, occupations, urban and rural environment
etc. This causes the polarization of territory according to different demographic,
economic, social and other characteristics.
Economic structure of the population by activity is one of indicators of the
development degree reached on certain territory owing to the fact that economic
development directly changes economic structure of the population, while the
structure of labor force is directly reflected upon economic trends. Complexity of
the research into population activity emerges from determinateness of the volume
of labor force by numerous demographic (total population, work-capable
population, and population structure) and economic
-
social factors (branch
structure of economy, pace of economic development, duration of compulsory
education, labor legislation, religion, tradition, customs
et.)
Characteristics of the population of Serbia by economic structure are
viewed because of chosen indicator analysis: general activity characteristics, degree
of women activity, structure of active population towards structure of activities and
degree of population employment. With a view to various levels of demographic
development of municipalities in Serbia are one of the important elements for
demographic regionalization.
In
1991
the general activity rate in the area of Serbia was
44.2%.
The
women activity rate was
35.3%,
the rate of self-supporting persons was
11.6%,
while
dependents represented
44.2%
of the population. The value of the economic
dependence coefficient was
126.
In respect to these average values, significant
differences by macrounits emerged. In Central Serbia, higher general activity rate
290
Summary
(1.12
index points in relation to the Republic average) as well as participation of
self-supporting persons resulted in smaller participation of dependents. Thus the
economic dependence coefficient was on the lower,
103
level, while the activity rate
of women population was
42.2%.
Participation of active population in the total population in
Vojvodina
is on
the republic level. However, the process of demographic aging of the population
exerted influence upon the relatively high participation of self-supporting persons
on one hand, and the decrease of dependants participation on the other.
Opposite demographic development in the area of Kosovo and
Metohija
caused significant differences in all population structures concerning other two
macroregions. Significant participation of dependants in total population, very low
population activity rate
(0.45
index points with regard to the republic average) and
low participation of self-supporting persons are a result of young age structure of
the population; therefore, the economic dependence coefficient was twice higher
than the republic average.
Different demographic development of municipalities within the
macroregions caused great territory differentiation. Territories with higher and
lower activity rate can be separated. The higher activity rates were caused either by
predominant participation of active agricultural population in the total active
population, or by divided occupation structure. Municipalities of the other type had
a low activity rate as a result either of the above-average participation of active
agricultural population, of young age population structure and at the same time of
low women activity rate, or of territories with a higher deagrarization rate, but a
distinctive depopulation process and population aging.
Active population or labor force represents the demographic framework
from where the contingent of employed is formed. The influence of the capacity of
population is in the first place the question of relationship between the population
and the labor force (offer) on one, and the available resources and their use on the
other side (demand). The accomplished employment rate in the area of Serbia in
1995
was
225
employed per
1000
inhabitants. Between macroregions and among
them there were great differences.
The area of Central Serbia is characterized by the above-average
employment rate with
263
workers per
1000
inhabitants. According to the
accomplished employment level concerning the general activity rate, several types
of municipalities can be separated. The first type is represented by municipalities
where the higher employment level is in accordance with the higher activity rate of
the population because of general development. These are the territories with the
most favorable settlement and development conditions, favorable transportation
-
geographic position, where significant population concentration is present and a
diversified occupation structure is formed. A higher employment level was
accomplished in depopulated municipalities, but with the above-average activity
rates.
Municipalities with a lower employment level, but with a higher general
activity rate were exactly the ones where the higher activity rate was the result of
significant participation of agriculturally active population; a lower employment
291
Summary
level with a low activity rate was a characteristic of underdeveloped areas with a
young age structure of the population.
Vojvodina in
general is characterized with a higher employment rate
(279
employed per
1000
inhabitants). Thanks to a higher degree of economic
development, because of relatively homogeneous group of geopotentials for
development and settlement, the diversified occupation structure reflected
approximately similar characteristics of employment level. Somewhat, out of the
general perspective exit municipalities that form a zone of lower employment in
central and Southeast part of
Vojvodina
with higher participation of agriculturally
active population.
The area of Kosovo and
Metohija
(with the average employment rate of
67
workers per
1000
inhabitants) together with all other attributes, was characterized
by spatial homogeneity of indicator values. Except for several municipalities, the
rest of the territory was characterized by a low activity rate of the population and
low employment, very low participation of women in the total employment as a
result of the young age structure and unadapted occupation structure unable to
assimilate the great inflow of population capable of work.
Employment structure,
i.e.
active population structure according to
occupation is connected with other economic structures, such as qualification,
education structure etc. The changes in professional structure of the population are
,at the same time qualitative (changes in the content of work of specific occupations)
and quantitative by nature (more detailed arrangement of the working population
within specific occupations), The development of science and technology, growth of
standard of living and new needs of the population have caused the appearance of
new occupations. Creation of new structures of the active population by occupation
was accomplished with the growth of education level of employed and working
population in total,
The result of
50
years of compulsory education in Serbia is that the literacy
of population has reached the level of approximately
95%.
Inhabitants with finished
elementary school participate with about
66.0%,
with finished secondary school with
about
40.0%
and with finished higher school with up to
9.0%.
Judging by the trend of changes made so far, we can expect that within ten
years from now, the literacy in Serbia will be complete; in the same period,
participation of other stipulated population contingents will increase by some
10
percent.
By calculation of the population work qualifications according to
municipalities in
1981
mutual relations between municipalities were determined.
That gave the basis for the conclusion that larger part of North Serbia with Belgrade
represents a much more developed macro
-
regional unit in perspective of work
force potentials. Beyond that territory, the same can be said only for the regions of
Uzice-
Valjevo and Kraljevo-Kragujevac. All other parts of Serbia (except
Niš,
Bor
and
Požarevac)
including parts of
Banat
are on the lower level of work
qualifications of the population. This represents an important variable for
determination of demographic regions in the process of general regionalization of
Serbia.
292
Summary
Overall development of agricultural population is a process goirg on in a
very complex, interdependent and mutual conditionality of different factors of
natural and social environment, under the influence of ecological, cultural,
civilization, economic, demographic, politic and other specific conditions of the
geographic system (its logic and pattern). The influence of particular determinants is
very variable, in time as well as in space. Therefore, in the chapter that deals with
agricultural population the basic qualities of the population were discussed, which in
the first place affect the arrangement and structure of the agricultural population,
agricultural production, and even geographic regionalization.
Agriculture used to be the only area of engagement for the rural
population. However, it is certain that along with the technic
-
technology progress,
the need for labour force in agriculture significantly decreased, which in the last
decades of the 20th century resulted in working population drain from agriculture
and the village.
In Serbia, in the period
1953 -1991
agricultural population decreased from
4.7
million
(66.7%)
to
1.7
million
(17.6%).
In that period agricultural population
decreased both in absolute and in relative sense. From the aspect of regions, the
total number of agricultural population in that period in Central Serbia was reduced
for
2
million (from
67.2%
to
18.0%),
in
Vojvodina
for over
800
thousand (from
62.9%
to
13.7%),
and in Kosovo and
Metohija
for about
200
thousand (from
72.4%
to
20.5%).
At the same time, within all macroregions, the process of (absolute and
relative) reduction of active agricultural population went on. On the territories of
Central Serbia, the participation of active population in agricultural population was
reduced for about
3
times (from
74.8%
to
27.0%),
in
Vojvodina
for
4
times (from
68.7%
to
17.1%)
and in Kosovo and
Metohija
for about
4
times (from
76.6%
to
24.9%)
too.
Among other things, the following elements for establishment of the basis
of demographic regionalization have been analyzed in the paper: changes in the
concentration of agricultural population and the productivity level of active farmers.
In addition, eight different forms of population density were observed. This enables
very precise monitoring of changes in the regional distribution of population. Data
on changes in the structure of agricultural population point to the pace of economic
development of the country as well as to socio-economic relations. As a rule, the
transfer of population from agriculture went on by selective mode
-
mainly younger
inhabitants were going away, mostly men, which significantly affected the overall
sex-age population structure. The direct result of deagrarization was the rapid aging
of agricultural population. Namely, throughout the last decades of this century we
can follow the outgoing decrease of juvenile population (up to
19
years of age),
along with the increase of participation of the elderly (over
60
years of age). Thus,
the participation of young persons decreased from
41.6%
to
30.5%
and of the
elderly from
8.8%
to
16.0%.
The projections are that the trend will go on, therefore
it is expected that the decrease of agricultural population in Central Serbia until
2011
will be to
9.4%.
At least
50%
of them will be the persons of
60
years of age
and up, while there will be only
11.5%
of persons younger than
20
years (less than
62 000).
Data on the age structure of agricultural population point out that the
process of aging of farmers in Serbia is well underway. Old households do not take
advantage of new technologies and mechanization, which has negative affects on the
293
Summary
_
^_^
results, and structure of agricultural production. The sex structure, apart from the
age structure, is an important factor of economic activity of the population in a
certain area. The process of extreme industrialization and deagrarization after
World War II has led to the increase in the number of mixed households, which
inevitably led to increased engagement of women in agriculture That is because
men, as a rule, are being employed out of agriculture and women stay on the land.
From
1961
to
1991,
four percentage points (from
42.0%
to
46.4%)
raised the
participation of active women in agriculture. Starting from the eighties, on the
territory of Central Serbia women labor force in agriculture represented more than
half
(51.2%)
of persons actively engaged in agriculture. During that period,
decrease of women activity was recorded only in
Vojvodina,
which can be explained
by a stronger orientation of production towards tilling, with less space for women
labor. The average low activity of women on Kosovo and
Metohija
proves the
worldwide rule that the lowest rates of women activity is being found on the
territories inhabited with the Moslem population.
Low education level, as another possible element of demographic
regionalization, represented after World War II the general characteristic of the
population of Serbia, especially of farmers. Throughout the last decades of the 20th
century the education structure of this contingent of population improved, but
remained very low, far below the European average. In
1991
the education level of
an active agricultural inhabitant of the Republic reached the elementary school
level, while in
Vojvodina
the situation was a bit better, and in Kosovo and
Metohija
even worse. Regional differences from the aspect of education level of the
population were rather big, and mostly in agreement with the economic
development level. Thus, the population of more developed municipalities, larger
cities and suburban settlements was on a slightly higher education level. In the
period of
1953-1991
on the territory of Serbia the number of active agricultural
population with no education decreased conspicuously, from
1.119.746
in
1953
to
209.254
in
1991.
Their participation in the total agriculturally active population
dropped from
45.6%
in
1953
to
23.12%
in
1991.
The category of active agricultural
population with elementary school showed a decrease in the absolute amount from
1.3Г2.222
in
1953
to
635.881
in
1991,
but there was a relative increase from
54.3%
in
1953
to
70.2%
in
1991.
This figure point to a new socio-economic process,
i.e.
that
the total numbers of persons that work in agriculture droped, but on the other hand
their education structure improved. It is important that this process of improvement
of education level was also characteristic in the segment of farmers with secondary
and higher education. Thus, in
1991
there were
21.132
active farmers in Serbia with
a higher education. Although there was an obvious improvement in the education
level of the active agricultural population, there was still a great number (even
25.26%
or every fourth) of them with no education and with every seventh illiterate.
This conclusion needs an explanation
-
the largest number of illiterate persons was
in the category of old person.
It is necessary to emphasize that a decrease in the number of agricultural
and active agricultural population in Serbia was not caused by the rise of
productivity and structural changes in agricultural production. The production is still
characterized by small farms, with largely autarchic or low merchandise agricultural
orientation. The decrease of agricultural population was more a reflection of rural
294
Summary
exodus as a result of poorly developed agriculture that in most cases did
r jt
provide
an adequate standard of living, and in numerous cases not even the basic survival.
On the basis of all this, we can reach a conclusion that the overall agricultural
population in Serbia after World War II, as well as its segment that represents the
working population in agriculture decreased extremely fast and with evident
territorial differentiation of deagrarization process. Due to limited potentials of
mountain areas and their insufficient integration into social and economic streams,
the development rate of non-agrarian occupations fell behind the restructure rate of
agricultural population. Therefore, when leaving agriculture as an occupation, the
population in large amount was leaving the territories as well. It can be concluded
that the demographic picture of agricultural population was highly unfavorable.
In the general judgement on movability of the agricultural population,
several courses can be separated. First, the general movement towards Belgrade
-
the center of political, cultural, educational and administrative life of the Republic;
second, towards regional centers; third from the village toward the municipality
center. Agricultural population mostly participated in these movements. This trend
significantly affected agriculture in general, and especially processes in the field of
cattle breeding. The situation analysis clearly points out that closing of agricultural
households diminished the number of cattle, which significantly affected cattle
production in general.
Accelerated development of Yugoslavia, and of Serbia as well, has fully
encompassed all spheres of population life and started a profound socio-economic
transformation. It has been progressing with some specificities which later became
more evident in the total and regional development of Serbia. On the other side, the
mentioned transformation, stirred by economic development, served as foundation
of all extensive social changes. The development has in essence been advancing
more in width and less in depth. Social and demographic movements were not
adapted to the economic and technological speed of development and were exposed
to pressures of unpredictable and unmanageable character. The situation in Serbia
has become inverted so that economic and thereby technologic prosperity was
restrained by social and demographic transformation, which was extremely
intensive.
Demographic and social changes under conditions prevailing in Serbia have
been proceeding much more rapidly than economic development as their basis.
Thus, a specific situation has been created which particularly manifested itself in the
space and its regional picture. Settlements and agglomerations respectively were set
up like indicators of that situation. Differences between more developed centers
situated in smaller places and large underdeveloped areas with characteristics of
suburbs and enclaves of backwardness were deepened in consequence. That type of
a developed center did not show a steady and balanced tendency of development,
but was rather exposed to pressures of intensive deagrarianization and emmigration,
creating within itself,
i.e.
in city agglomerations new phenomena and problems
concerning development, particularly in periurban belts. However, a separate
network of towns of various sizes and functional relations among themselves on one,
and between themselves and the neighboring or remote areas on the other side, has
been created. Such a situation clearly points out not only the need, but urgency as
well, to undertake reserch and determination of the regional picture of Serbia, and
295
_
Summary
_
similarly the procedure of regionalization with the aim to bring into harmony the
processes of economic development, which failed to keep up with the times, and
already accomplished demographic processes, social transformations and changes.
Though roughly estimated the fact that one half of the population in Serbia
lives in the fifth portion of its space should be particularly respected because it
points out that in regional frameworks complex problems occur. The agglomeration
of Belgrade is dominating the whole territory in question, in other words the
metropolitan area of Belgrade, according to estimation, covers only
3%
of that
territory and is inhabited by one third of the population. Boisterous development of
Belgrade and diversity of problems it faces are illustrations of the consequences of
demographic
anticipative
transition. The so-called separate macro-regional centers
of Serbia,
Novi
Sad,
Niš,
Kragujevac and
Pristina
should be added to that region. A
more detailed analysis including the
Zapadna
Morava
and partly
Južna
Morava
axes
of development would give a better insight into the complete regional picture of
Serbia and a better idea how its regionalization should be approached.
Finally, it seems right to point to several other moments. The question of
the role and importance of the abandoned regionalization of Serbia in recent
decades is still open. Analysis of activities of these regional inter-municipal
associations has never been made. It could serve as a basis of indispensable research
and control if new aspects of knowledge and experiences, domestic and foreign,
would be applied. The second moment, associated with the demo-economic
complex, applies to the period directly behind and is not yet solved. It concerns the
great number of displaced persons and refugees from various parts of former
Yugoslavia who cannot return to their homes and who should be integrated into the
economy and society of Serbia. Their presence is greatly adding to an already deep
gap between the economic courses and socio-economic changes. They are bringing
along new difficilties to that complex, and new uncertainty to limited possibilities
and expectations.
Results of the comprehensive research represent not only an exact but on a
smaller scale a theoretic basis for the establishment of the groundwork of
demographic regionalization of Serbia. That basis would rely on a majority of
spaial-demographic components
:
distribution (arrangement) of population, density
of population and degree of urbanization as resultants of redistribution
(rearrangement) of population, natural movement of population, age-sex straucture,
activities, agriocultural population as a separate element etc. It is important to
emphasize that they are elements necessary to the establishment of the basis which
in combination with demogeographic decompositions of the space of the Republic
of Serbia, and other indicatiors, would result in the general demogeographic
regionalization of that space.
296 |
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| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV021607215 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HB3628 |
| callnumber-raw | HB3628.5.S48 |
| callnumber-search | HB3628.5.S48 |
| callnumber-sort | HB 43628.5 S48 |
| callnumber-subject | HB - Economic Theory and Demography |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)150904770 (DE-599)BVBBV021607215 |
| edition | 2. izd. |
| era | Geschichte 1850-2000 gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1850-2000 |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | Serbia Population Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Serbia Population Serbien |
| id | DE-604.BV021607215 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T14:49:18Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-20T04:23:40Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 8680029203 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014822491 |
| oclc_num | 150904770 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | 296 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 2003 |
| publishDateSearch | 2003 |
| publishDateSort | 2003 |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Posebna izdanja / Srpska Akademija Nauka i Umetnosti, Geografski Institut "Jovan Cvijić" |
| spelling | Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije Srpska Akademija Nauka i Umetnosti, Geografski Institut "Jovan Cvijić". [Urednik Milena Spasovski] 2. izd. Beograd 2003 296 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Posebna izdanja / Srpska Akademija Nauka i Umetnosti, Geografski Institut "Jovan Cvijić" 54 PT: Demographic basis for regionalization of Serbia. - In kyrill. Schr., serb. - Zsfassung in engl. Sprache Geschichte 1850-2000 gnd rswk-swf Regionalism Serbia Regionalisierung (DE-588)4177425-5 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Serbia Population Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 gnd rswk-swf Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 g Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Regionalisierung (DE-588)4177425-5 s Geschichte 1850-2000 z DE-604 Spasovski, Milena Sonstige oth Srpska Akademija Nauka i Umetnosti, Geografski Institut "Jovan Cvijić" Posebna izdanja 54 (DE-604)BV008905274 54 Digitalisierung BSBMuenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014822491&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014822491&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije Regionalism Serbia Regionalisierung (DE-588)4177425-5 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4177425-5 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4054598-2 |
| title | Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije |
| title_auth | Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije |
| title_exact_search | Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije |
| title_full | Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije Srpska Akademija Nauka i Umetnosti, Geografski Institut "Jovan Cvijić". [Urednik Milena Spasovski] |
| title_fullStr | Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije Srpska Akademija Nauka i Umetnosti, Geografski Institut "Jovan Cvijić". [Urednik Milena Spasovski] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije Srpska Akademija Nauka i Umetnosti, Geografski Institut "Jovan Cvijić". [Urednik Milena Spasovski] |
| title_short | Demografske osnove regionalizacije Srbije |
| title_sort | demografske osnove regionalizacije srbije |
| topic | Regionalism Serbia Regionalisierung (DE-588)4177425-5 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Regionalism Serbia Regionalisierung Bevölkerungsentwicklung Serbia Population Serbien |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014822491&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014822491&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV008905274 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT spasovskimilena demografskeosnoveregionalizacijesrbije |