"We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben

Hauptverfasser:	Svensson, Lars E. O. 1947- (VerfasserIn), Williams, Noah (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2005
Schriftenreihe:	National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11733
Schlagworte:	Ökonometrisches Modell Economic forecasting Monetary policy > Econometric models Geldpolitik Prognoseverfahren Risiko
Online-Zugang:	kostenfrei
Zusammenfassung:	"We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple i.i.d. model deviations; serially correlated model deviations; estimable regime-switching models; more complex structural uncertainty about very different models, for instance, backward- and forward-looking models; time-varying central-bank judgment about the state of model uncertainty; and so forth. We provide an algorithm for finding the optimal policy as well as solutions for arbitrary policy functions. This allows us to compute and plot consistent distribution forecasts---fan charts---of target variables and instruments. Our methods hence extend certainty equivalence and "mean forecast targeting" to more general certainty non-equivalence and "distribution forecast targeting.""--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Beschreibung:	62 S. graph. Darst.